Even if Florida is ripe to be had, has UGA ripened yet?
In 2008 Florida scored at least 30 points in all nine games against SEC opposition, including the one it lost to Ole Miss. Its average margin of victory in those games was 30 points.
In 2009 Florida has scored 30 points against one SEC opponent, that being Kentucky. The Gators managed 23 against Tennessee, 13 against LSU, 23 against Arkansas and 29 against Mississippi State. Their average margin of victory in those five games was 13.4 points.
As silly as it sounds to say of the nation’s No. 1 team as led by the nation’s No. 1 player, Florida isn’t playing well. It was lucky to beat Arkansas in the Swamp — remember, Georgia scored 52 points against the Razorbacks on the road — and needed a phantom interception to escape Starkville with a 10-point victory. (Remember, Georgia Tech beat MSU by 11 points on the same field in a game that was only cosmetically close.)
Tim Tebow ranks 45th in the nation in total offense. By way of comparison, Joe Cox ranks 53rd. After the Mississippi State game Tebow didn’t meet the media, which was an utter shock. (He said later he wanted to spend time with MSU coach Dan Mullen, formerly Florida’s offensive coordinator, and family.) But Urban Meyer acknowledged this week: “Tim Tebow is not playing at his highest level.”
Tebow told reporters on Monday: “It’s kind of new and it is frustrating.”
Put simply, Florida is vulnerable. And looky who the Gators play this Saturday.
Georgia is coming off its most impressive game of 2009, albeit against Vanderbilt. It has had a week to rest and ready a new end-zone dance. (Sorry. Couldn’t resist.) When last the Bulldogs had a bye before Florida, they beat the Gators and Tebow in a performance so stunning it rankled Florida for the next calendar year.
But let’s get serious. Georgia is 4-3. It needed a last-gasp pass breakup to beat South Carolina and a last-second field goal to subdue Arizona State. It lost by 26 points — the second-worst defeat under Mark Richt, topped only by 49-10 in Jacksonville last season — to unranked Tennessee. It led Vandy only 17-10 after 40 minutes.
Some team is going to beat Florida. Georgia, sorry to say, is not that team. It doesn’t defend well enough, and it isn’t going to score many points against Charlie Strong’s inspired bunch. (Florida ranks No. 1 in the nation in total defense; Georgia ranks 70th.) The Bulldogs will play hard and keep it close for a half, and then superior forces will carry the day/night.
It’s weird. Georgia hasn’t beaten a No. 1 team since it stunned Florida 24-3 in 1985, and these Gators don’t look nearly as impregnable as those Gators did. But this isn’t a vintage Georgia team. In almost any other year it would be easy to pick the upset. Not this time.
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563 comments Add your comment
Lindsey
October 27th, 2009
2:40 pm
Expect the unexpected, GO DAWGS!!!
Urban's Husband
October 27th, 2009
2:40 pm
Tennessee just scored again on a naked bootleg. Long live CWM!!!
ratherBgambling
October 27th, 2009
2:40 pm
No way……No how.
Golden Tornado
October 27th, 2009
2:40 pm
I’m a Tech fan, of course, but I’ve been saying for at least a week and a half, that I think the Dawgs are really going to pull off an upset. They’ll have had a long rest, and Tebow could well mess up, this go-round. So, woof, woof!
GO JACKETS !!!
HBTD
October 27th, 2009
2:41 pm
Dogs beat Florida this weekend + SC beats Florida in Columbia in a couple of weeks + UGA beats Auburn and KY in Athens = Dawgs in SEC CG.
I know, I know, the Auburn game is in Athens (visiting team wins for those of you new to this), but I give this scenario a 50/50 shot.
JB Wright
October 27th, 2009
2:41 pm
Of course they can beat Fla. In a year when it doesn’t matter, they can easily do it.
Now if we were unbeaten and needed it for a shot at the championship, you can forget it…
RAMBLE ON!!!
October 27th, 2009
2:42 pm
Mark has stolen my crystal ball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Xyk0JuSTns&feature=related
GIVE ME A BREAK
October 27th, 2009
2:44 pm
Florida and Tebow are highly overrated and are primed for a beat down. GO DAWGS!!!!!
Not this Year
October 27th, 2009
2:45 pm
According to Jax contacts, UGA ticket holders have sold record amounts of their tickets to fla. faithful. This could be as bad or worse than last year…remember Brandon Spikes taking K Murion down and staying on top of him, getting in his face/mind? The mood was set quickly and this game will be more of the same. Even AJ will be lucky to catch 3 passes for a few yards. I would not be surprised to see a shut of 35-0 with our offense racking up less than 100 total yards. I don’t think UGA can even score. I also think they want Tebow to run 2-3 touchdowns to make it clear that he is now the new TD record holder over Herschel.
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:45 pm
UGA pulls off the shocker of the yr, and beats fla in a instant classic ot game of the ages!
Big Dawgs Eat!
Ferndolin
October 27th, 2009
2:45 pm
How about UGA plays up to their potential with no mistakes and FL has a particularly bad day. This scenario is one of many possibilities folks. You know the whole ‘on any given day’ thing. If the stars are all aligned, GA walks away with a win, and bama wins the NC.
Jeff
October 27th, 2009
2:46 pm
Um, Mark, didn’t you write a column a couple of weeks ago where you said that Georgia WOULD beat the Gators? Realizing how idiotic that sounded?
Herschel Talker
October 27th, 2009
2:47 pm
HBTD @ 2:41:
You are the biggest blind homer since L-Dawg. Please grow a brain.
tom-tom
October 27th, 2009
2:47 pm
Hey, UGA can too score on a Jax town whore… It’s just too bad they don’t put ON a jersey Saturday afternoon. It’s time to claim victory in the tailgating dep’t and have lots of advil ready Sunday morning.
NCDawg
October 27th, 2009
2:47 pm
And the Nobel Prize goes to…Willie Martinez!
FLA=FRAUD
October 27th, 2009
2:47 pm
the lil puppies this yr find a way to beat the gata’s in a upset.
Herschel Talker
October 27th, 2009
2:48 pm
YOU ARE ALL BLIND HOMERS. ALL OF YOU THINK THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN, WILLIE MARTINEZ LEARNED TO COACH AND THAT UGA DEFENDERS LEARNED HOW TO TACKLE AND DEFEND AGAINST THE DEEP THROW. LET’S GET SERIOUS.
Gator Fan Stan
October 27th, 2009
2:48 pm
Pay attention little bulldoggies…..you are about to see how a real program operates…..AGAIN
Mark Bradley
October 27th, 2009
2:48 pm
Nope, Jeff. I didn’t. Go back and check.
Hope is not a strategy
October 27th, 2009
2:49 pm
Herein lies the problem…outcoached, out stategized, out played, out manned, outlasted…and we as UGA fans have to rely upon hope…it just does not work…by the way HBTD…what do you base your risk analysis work on?
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:49 pm
i agree with geigia could have a perfect played game and pulloff the upset. though will fla play down to their opponents like they have been and still find a way to win?
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:49 pm
*georgia
"Happy Jacket"
October 27th, 2009
2:49 pm
No way Jay ! IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN !!!!!!
SSI gator
October 27th, 2009
2:50 pm
Not this Year -
Even here on the island there are still available rooms when they previously would have been sold out long before now. At least it will be nice and quiet on the island after the game. Also, you pups that do make the trip, remember to take your trash back to Ayhens with you.
FLA=FRAUD
October 27th, 2009
2:50 pm
gata’s arre overrated and have been all yr, bama is better then them IMO. these puppies have a shot!
HBTD
October 27th, 2009
2:51 pm
HT. Of course I’m a “blind homer”. You sound misarble. Let me guess, you’re one of the bandwagon fans that would like to fire the whole coaching staff and bring in either Will Muschamp or Kirby Smart as the new head coach. You pessimistic types really crack me up. LOL!
The Turd Burglar
October 27th, 2009
2:51 pm
Willie survive? Nope, not this week. I hope UGA pulls an upset but the D has looked bad and probably will be torched. If they do, we will need a new DC …fast.
Ferndolin
October 27th, 2009
2:51 pm
What the hell is a blind homer?
Hotdawg
October 27th, 2009
2:52 pm
The real loss which will focus the declining state of our program will be when Georgia Tech puts a number on us for the second year in a row. We could easily be routed worse in that game than the Florida game.
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:53 pm
georgia has loads of young alent, if they can mesh together and make plays early to build confidence. then the dawgs might hang with fla, but the defense must be lights out for UGA to pulloff the upset.
Ferndolin
October 27th, 2009
2:53 pm
Tech is for real!
HBTD
October 27th, 2009
2:54 pm
HINAS – 41 years of following the dawgs.
Gator Fan Stan
October 27th, 2009
2:54 pm
Being serious here for a second, UGA always has great recruiting classes…..must be the coaching
AthensBaby
October 27th, 2009
2:56 pm
CaliDogg (2:03), excellent post. Reminds me what was said about Bear Bryant (I think) years ago. “He can take his team and beat yours, and take your team and beat his.” Urban Myer is the “Bear” of today, the coach others are measured by, unfortunately.
RAMBLE ON!!!
October 27th, 2009
2:56 pm
Herschel Talker you do sound like an ornery old fart.
29 years of nothing to talk about will do that huh?
Where's my pants?
October 27th, 2009
2:56 pm
Mark, you and the Dawg nation sound so pessimistic. Coach Dooley will have the team pumped and ready to go, and no one will be able to stop Herschel, he’ll rush for at least 200 yds. boy i can’t wait.Sugar Bowl here we come!
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:56 pm
this is a pivotal game for both teams, as tebow hasnt been camera friendly as of late with the way the offense is playing. an for CMR, if his teams defense get blownout…. then he will have to go ahead and start looking for a new DC come seasons end. especially considering if uga losses and has another hangover like after losing to lsu(thanks ref) and tenn tech gives the dawgs a fit too…..
Herschel Talker
October 27th, 2009
2:58 pm
HBTD @ 2:51:
I AM A REALIST. I LOVE THE DAWGS. BUT IF YOU CAN’T SEE WHERE THIS IS HEADING WITH THE BREAKDOWN IN COACHING AND FUNDAMENTALS, AND THE LACK OF DISCIPLINE, THEN YOU HAVE YOUR HEAD UP YOUR KEISTER. THE PROBLEM NEEDS TO BE NIPPED IN THE BUD NOW, NOT WHEN YOU CAPITULATE IN 3 YEARS, YOU DOLT. IF YOU THINK URBAN ISN’T LICKING HIS CHOPS AT THE MEDIA SAYING ALABAMA DESERVES TO BE NUMBER ONE, THEN YOU ARE DELUSIONAL. GO AHEAD AND CALL ME A PESSIMIST. I DON’T CARE. BUT QUIT BEING A BLIND HOMER, YOU CLOWN.
FERNDOLIN @ 2:51:
A BLIND HOMER IS SOMEONE WHO DOES NOT OBJECTIVELY LOOK AT THE FACTS ABOUT THEIR TEAM AND JUST SPEWS OUT HOW GREAT THEY ARE BECAUSE THEY CAN’T SEPARATE LOGIC FROM EMOTION. THAT WAS A REAL HARD ONE TO FIGURE OUT.
Paul'sPeePee
October 27th, 2009
2:58 pm
RAMBLE ON!!! likes to eat dawg vomit.
SSI gator
October 27th, 2009
2:58 pm
Ebay has hundreds of tix for sale and most are from UGA fans. Cheap prices too.
Chris82Atl
October 27th, 2009
2:58 pm
tech isnt that good and imo niether is the sec, butthe acc is better then last just still not elite like the sec even when theits a down yr in the sec like this yr.
dt
October 27th, 2009
2:59 pm
Might be interesting but I doubt it Gators by 30
Herschel Talker
October 27th, 2009
2:59 pm
RAMBLE ON!!! @ 2:56:
I GUESS TALKING ABOUT THE BEATING YOU THAT TOOLS PUT ON UGA ONCE EVERY 7 YEARS OR SO GIVES YOU LOTS TO TALK ABOUT, YOU PUTZ.
Where's my pants?
October 27th, 2009
2:59 pm
Watch out Gators, Fran can run and Throw!! Betta belee dat!
fayncdawg
October 27th, 2009
3:00 pm
The Gators ARE vulnerable! Now make no mistake! The Dawgs need a a 2007 defensive effort to beat Florida (along with some refs who aren’t on Florida’s payroll). The chances of BOTH of those things occuring…. Bottom line: they play defense, the Dawgs WILL win!
Pope Urban IX
October 27th, 2009
3:00 pm
never ever saw Bradley pick against the bulldogs over the gators. georgia must really, really suck this year. this could get uga ly again.
cantondawg
October 27th, 2009
3:00 pm
Of course, Georgia has a chance. Georgia has been a schizophrenic team all year. Played good defense against OSU, LSU,and VANDY. Played Great offense against Ark and SC. If we can just bring it all together for one game then we’ve got a good chance.
reasonable
October 27th, 2009
3:01 pm
You heard it here first – if WM remains as DC for next year, then he and MR will be both be gone after next season. WM has not shown in any of the seasons in which he has been DC that he is even remotely up to the task. After the repeated failures of our defense under WM for no changes to be made this off-season in DC merely means that MR is more loyal to his friends than to the program, players, alumni, and fans. If that is the case, the outcry will be too loud for Damon Evans, who has already expressed concerns about this season and this year’s team, to wait another year for Richt to show that he can learn what Kifflin alrready knows, a great defense will keep you in games you have no business being in.
HBTD
October 27th, 2009
3:01 pm
HT. Try to relax. This is supposed to be FUN! Don’t get too worked up about it for at the end of the day, win or lose, it’s still great to be a Georgia Bulldog. Can you imagine the local alternative where it’s back to calculus and physics?? Have some fun. This is one of the biggest games annually in the country.
Sanford Drive
October 27th, 2009
3:03 pm
Way too many “ifs” here.
There is not a REMOTE shot in HELL that UGA will be able to pull of an upset. UF loves to make us look stupid. It’s their favorite past-time. And they are really good at it.