It’s not over for the Braves; in fact, it’s just getting good
You don’t have to figure the magic number. You needn’t go through those “if-the-Rockies-play-.500-ball-the-Braves-have-to-play-.750-ball” computations. I’ll tell you when this is over. And today I’m telling you: It’s …
Not over.
Not even close.
As September dawns, the Braves are three games back in the wild card race with 31 to play. That’s well within range. The baseball rule of thumb: You can only expect to make up one game a week. The Braves have four weeks and six days left. That’s doable.
Would you bet on the Braves? Probably not. They are, after all, three games behind two teams, and they don’t play either of the two. But they have a softer schedule (only 12 of the final 31 games are against winning teams) than San Francisco (17 of 31 against plus-.500 opponents) and are playing better than Colorado, which has lost five in a row.
And here’s the key: The Braves don’t have to jump over four or five teams. They have only to climb past two, and the Giants and Rockies still must play one another three more times (Sept. 14-16 in San Fran).
The guess here is that, schedule be hanged, San Fran will finish ahead of Colorado. The Giants pitch better, and pitching — stop me if you’ve heard this one — matters. But the Braves pitch almost as well as the Giants, and they get Tim Hudson back tonight. (San Fran added Brad Penny on Monday, but whom would you rather have?)
Loading ...We’ve all gone back and forth regarding the state of the Braves these past few weeks, but some clarity has begun to emerge: They’re not going to catch Philly, but they can win the wild card. And they keep timing things right. They just came off their first losing week in a month and still closed ground because Colorado took a header.
As much as we might think this team doesn’t look much like a playoff club, the numbers tell us otherwise. The numbers tell us the the Braves are three back with 31 to go. If they keep pitching, they’ll have a chance come the final week. And they finish with four games against Washington.
Not over, folks. Just beginning.
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130 comments Add your comment
Krvin
September 1st, 2009
3:42 am
Too bad it’s not the Mets in front.
NCBravesFan
September 1st, 2009
4:56 am
I agree with the overall premise Mark – I just hope that Chipper can turn it up a notch or three here in September and I’ll feel better about our chances. Got to love how the Braves have hung in there given how banged up a few guys are right now … and all the problems, well chronicled here, that the club had earlier this year.
Ostrich Racer
September 1st, 2009
5:13 am
Over?!? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Rooferdawg
September 1st, 2009
5:29 am
I agree! I wish we had done something at the trading deadline. The front office has decided to wait until next year! That is a bad message to the fans, and existing players.
BravesFan79
September 1st, 2009
6:07 am
LoL… Germans bombed pearl Harbor? thats news to me….
79
September 1st, 2009
6:20 am
“..Germans bombed pearl Harbor? thats news to me..” I believe it was “news” to Otter, Boone,and the rest of Delta house also….
Forgot my coffee
September 1st, 2009
6:30 am
Yea, and the Japanese blitzed Great Britain
Panties in a wad
September 1st, 2009
6:35 am
No it’s not over, but they wont do it. Wren waited way too long to make the moves that finally made the Braves contenders again. It was obvious long before he figured it out that Schaffer and Francouer were dragging this team down. Now we get teased the last 2 months of the season. The still blatant(and unaddressed) lack of power is whats holding them back.
In the offseason trade Chipper, cut KK, and get some powerhitters.
Bring on football season.
Mitch C
September 1st, 2009
6:46 am
Mark, you’re correct in your assessment. The Braves have a shot at the wild card.
Looking at the whole schedule, they not only finish with four with Washington, but, in total, they have thirteen games against both Washington, and the almost equally as bad Mets. Hopefully, they can make hay.
My concern is that the Braves need to play better against the weaker teams. The series against San Diego last week hurt, badly, and, if we should miss the wild card by one or two games, even if we play well the rest of the way, that is a series to look back on.
I’m going to go with you, though, and be positive. Three back with 31 left is very doable. We get Hudson back tonight. Hopefully, we will have a September to remember, and will be in the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Mitch
MarkD335
September 1st, 2009
6:49 am
Definitely encouraging and a decent shot at making it. Not much margin for error though.. need to avoid rough streaks like dropping 4 out of 5. Verdict’s still out on T Hudson after Tommy John, but Wren’s pitching rebuilding over the winter is definitely paying off.
Coach (2010 or Bust)
September 1st, 2009
6:50 am
Um, Mark, you left out one important factor. The Rockies powder puff schedule:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/8/31/1009159/a-look-at-the-atlanta-braves?ref=yahoo
Mitch C
September 1st, 2009
6:52 am
Hope this isnt a double post. I posted before, but it didnt seem to go up.
Anyhow, as you said, Mark, it’s not over. Three games out with thirty one to go is very doable. Also, we have thirteen games left with NL East bottom feeders the Mets and Washington. We need to play better against them, though, then we did against San Diego last week.
Getting Tim Hudson back tonight should help us. Our pitching has been great, all season. Now, we should get a big boost.
We can do it, but we must have no letdowns. We need to keep plugging away. If we play as we have since the All Star break, not counting what happened last week against the Pads, we might very well have October baseball in Atlanta for the first time in four years.
Mitch
Fried chicken skin is greasy and delicious
September 1st, 2009
6:53 am
Anybody complaining about this season obviously didn’t watch the previous two. Love this team. The Braves are rebuilding and doing it well and the fact they keep hanging in there in the playoff race … well, to me, that’s some good gravy.
Bob Horner had a sweet compact swing
September 1st, 2009
7:15 am
August is in the rear view mirror…today is Sept 1st…the Braves are only 3 games out of the Wild Card..it is there for the taking….I hope Hudson pitches well tonight…go Braves..!!
Ostrich Racer
September 1st, 2009
7:22 am
It’s not over until we say it’s over!!
Actually, I do like our chances. And the best thing that’s happened to the Braves in the last wekk may have been the Dodgers getting Thome: SF has 6 more with LA, sandwiched around a home series against the Rockies.
(For 79: Very good, Mr. Helper! I’m gonna keep my eye on you….)
rhynster
September 1st, 2009
7:29 am
LOL @ the people confused over the “Germans bombed Pearl Harbor” joke.
Haven’t you people ever watched Animal House?
greg
September 1st, 2009
7:33 am
In the playoff hunt. It’s all you can ask for as a fan unless you are the NY Yankees. Just get in and you have a chance. This is fun. The team has really battled and everyone must appreciate this. Earlier this year I would have said no way.
FalconUGAFan
September 1st, 2009
7:41 am
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
Go Braves!
Nativebird
September 1st, 2009
7:43 am
Unless our franchise (Mr. Jones), a.k.a THE offense Mr. Wren was counting on, THE home run and RBI producer Mr. Wren was counting on, THE “big bat” that the team so desperately needed and Mr. Wren was counting on, does better in September than he did in August, it will not happen. As much as I love this team, Omar Infante, Matt Diaz and Ryan Church do NOT make for a playoff calibur team. They need more. Chipper batting.247, with 3 HR’s and 10 RBI in Septemeber as he did in August will not get it done.
JEZ
September 1st, 2009
7:45 am
Yea Chipper has to step it up and lead this team. He’s still got something in the tank, he can do it. Maybe Huddy coming back will spark some motivation in him to get it going.
TommyP
September 1st, 2009
7:49 am
Dang, Mark. This column is becoming like the movie “Groundhog Day.”
Truth is the Braves record vs. most teams in the NL hovers around .500. They’ve fared well vs. the Phils and I think the Nats….everyone else, ’bout .500.
What’s disappointing is watching other teams in the hunt make deals to improved their chances in the last month. I’m not talking blockbusters, either. Dodgers just acquired Garland and Thome for the bench. Ronnie Belliard just got traded. Couldn’t the Braves have dealt a low-level fringe prospect for an upgrade in the pinch hitting department??????
Dodgers are going to look pretty good sending out a Giambi in the 7th to pinch hit, Belliard in the 8th and a Thome in the 9th. Not saying any of these guys are great (Thome is really nice to have) but they’re veterans that can give you a lot as backups.
Meanwhile, we keep sending out Greg Norton. ‘Nuff said.
TommyP
September 1st, 2009
7:50 am
Correction: “improve”
braveshoo
September 1st, 2009
8:00 am
I still like our chances,especially if we keep playing Infante in CF, and keep Norton on the Bench.The Giants will knock off the Rockies for us, and the Phillies and Dodgers will take care of the Giants. All we have to do is keep winning!
runtt
September 1st, 2009
8:06 am
Who dumped a whole truck-load of fizzies into the swim-meet? Who delivered the medical school cadavers to the alumni dinner? Every Halloween, the trees are filled with underwear. Every spring, the toilets explode.
A lot can happen in 31 games.
MightyQuinn
September 1st, 2009
8:13 am
My advice to Braves fans (including myself): Drink heavily. I was, after all, pre-med. Or was it pre-law?
MightyQuinn
September 1st, 2009
8:14 am
But the best Animal House summary may be: “Oohhh, boy, this is gonna be grrrrreat!”
BBrown
September 1st, 2009
8:15 am
Mark, I like your way of thinking on this one. We have the pitching, both starting and in the bullpen. Now is the time for Chipper to step it up over the next 31 games. Consider this one as well. Over the last few weeks, the games lost have been some very tight ones.
Go Braves!
leland
September 1st, 2009
8:17 am
Where is Sonny Clusters?
P Rose
September 1st, 2009
8:22 am
I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.
All I'm Saying Is...
September 1st, 2009
8:25 am
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ….TommyP: Good one! This is a Groundhog Day Column. Wake me when Bradley has something insightful to share….ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
LET’S GO BRAVES!
MightyQuinn
September 1st, 2009
8:26 am
P Rose: And we’re just the guys to do it!
MightyQuinn
September 1st, 2009
8:30 am
But on topic, I agree with everyone saying this thing probably rides on Chipper getting hot and carrying the team. No pressure there, Chipper!
Maestro
September 1st, 2009
8:33 am
My biggest problem is that we shouldn’t be in this position in the first place. We should be at the very least neck and neck with the Philllies for the NL East title and at least 4 games ahead in the wildcard. Going into the season, there was no doubt that the pitching we had was going to be as good as advertised and that has proved to be the case. I never liked the opening day lineup because there was not enough big bats in the lineup. That bore itself out with the anemic inconsistent offense that wasted good pitching performances after another. (JJ on Sunday nite being the latest). While trying to make Jordan Schafer an everyday player and playing Kelly Johnson at second everday when Infante should have clearly started in my opinion cost the Braves along with other factors too numerous to name. Chipper Jones is no longer the player he once was. Brian McCann is as good as it gets as a hitter but he is is not a cleanup hitter. That is where we’ve missed it. The Phillies have Utley and Howard as their 3/4 combination. Nuff sed.
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
September 1st, 2009
8:37 am
I agree – we’re not out of it yet. Do I think we’ll win it? No. But it’s been fun to watch. Greg Norton is the new Jeff Francoeur. He’d be of better use to this club if he became the bat boy.
Bob Horner
September 1st, 2009
8:39 am
Great Animal House reference, the men of Faber College would be proud.
steverino
September 1st, 2009
8:45 am
Do you min’ if we dance wif yo dates?
steverino
September 1st, 2009
8:47 am
And the greatest Animal House quote for an Atlanta Braves fan:
“Otis!! My man!!”
ann lewis
September 1st, 2009
8:49 am
TRUST ME it’s over.
Braves73
September 1st, 2009
8:54 am
Mark, your article is only correct in the fact that “the Braves are only three games back” in the Wild Card race. From there, I just don’t see this team making it to the playoffs this year. I believe there is some sort of disconnect in the clubhouse that keeps this team from reaching their full potential. I know it sounds crazy, but they have all of the components to be leading the division, yet they struggle to keep pace against mediocre competition. The message (whatever it may be coming from Bobby Cox) is just not getting through to his players.
steverino
September 1st, 2009
8:54 am
What??? The???
steverino
September 1st, 2009
8:55 am
Boon, I anticipate a deeply religious experience.
Dr. Warren
September 1st, 2009
8:57 am
This isn’t ‘93, when the Braves overtook the Giants, who won 101 games and still didn’t make the playoffs. No Fred McGriff this time. Next year should be a good one.
Ed
September 1st, 2009
8:59 am
Think about this…..IF Tommy Hanson starts the season in the BIGS (not Gwinnett) the Braves are probably tied with, or leading the wild card right now. Would someone please tell Bobby that Norton is terrible? I can’t watch another pinch-hit strikeout.
raleighbravefan
September 1st, 2009
9:00 am
Maestro,
Can’t disagree with a lot you say. However, pitching is still excellent, and batting stats for team are surprisingly strong since break. It still hurts when we can’t come up with the big hit to win the game, but that is true of other teams as well.
Philly and Cardnal bats are strong, but in short series (playoffs) anything can happen, especially with strong pitching. WE DO NEED TO KEEP NORTON AWAY FROM THE BATTERS BOX. That should be possible with call-ups.
ann lewis – I don’t trust you. It’s still uphill, but we have a real chance at playoffs if we can produce some runs (which we often do these days). You may be the most pessimistic person I have ever seen.
GeorgiaDuck
September 1st, 2009
9:03 am
The Giants won 103 games in 1993 and still came in second. The Rockies don’t have a Barry Bonds either.
Bat Masterson
September 1st, 2009
9:08 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
Vince
September 1st, 2009
9:08 am
Here’s our best chance. Keep Prado, Infante & Diaz on the field every day. I’ve been saying it all year. Sure Diaz swings wildly but he has a very big strike zone. Bring up Brooks Conrad, Gregor Blanco, Brandon Jones and the Canizares dude and don’t let K. Johnson or Norton bat again this year. Canizares & Conrad(switch hitter) can handle the pinch hitting and Jones & Blanco the pinch running & spot duty in the outfield. Give Chipper a few days off with Prado, Infante & Conrad filling the holes and get Chipper fresh & focused. Everything else keep pretty much the same and if McClouth comes back & helps, great. Good luck Braves.
Don
September 1st, 2009
9:14 am
The point that all the Braves Writers seem to overlook is how far the Braves would already be in front of the Wildcard race and perhaps even the Division with good management. How much effect would it have had if he had started playing Prado months earlier when everyone else knew he should, or if he had started using Diaz sooner, or had benched Francoeur when it became apparent that he was not going to produce for the Braves, or if he had taken Chipper out of the 3rd spot in the batting order during his prolonged slump (not to mention many other adjustments of moving hot and cold hitters up and down in the batting order), or if he had stopped using Norton as a pinch hitter, or if he had stopped using a couple of relief pitchers in the first half when they were competely ineffective and otherwise misused the bullpen? And this doesn’t even mention his blunder after blunder game after game in within game strategy moves – or the overall devastating effect of his completely failing to teach/emphasize/demand working the count, being selective, and making the opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches – which almost guarantees inconsistant run production. Is it a prequisite for employment by the AJC that there can be no critical statements relating to Bobby Cox?
Ralph
September 1st, 2009
9:14 am
I refuse to get myself all excited again.
Bama Aaron
September 1st, 2009
9:15 am
Nice try Mark. I think we will be teased terribly and probably finish a game or 2 out of the wildcard. We have the pitching (though it remains to be seen if a rebuilt Hudson is an improvement) but we don’t have the hitting to make the run. Chipper is looking old and McCann is flailing away trying to make up for Chipper’s lack of production.
Shame we don’t have 2 or 3 more Matty Diaz’s….he seems to hit everything inside either batting box right now.