There’s time enough for Hudson to make a difference
Tim Hudson doing rehab. He'll have work to do in the bigs as well. (AJC photo by Hyosub Shin)
When Tim Hudson makes his first big-league start of 2009 on Monday, there’ll be 32 games remaining in the regular season. If we count by fives, he could get seven starts. It’s late, but he could still tip the balance in the wild card scramble.
Hudson is a big-time pitcher. Let’s not forget that. Adding him to the Braves’ rotation — if we assume the Hudson of August/September is indeed the Hudson of old — could have the same impact Cliff Lee made on the Phillies’ rotation when he joined it. Except for this part:
The Phils’ rotation contained massive holes; the Braves’ rotation has been good all season.
Lee has given the Phillies five quality starts in five appearances. Kenshin Kawakami, whose place in the rotation Hudson is apparently taking, provided 12 quality starts in 24 appearances this season, which isn’t bad for the No. 5 man in a rotation. (Javier Vazquez has had 16 quality starts in 25 tries, by way of comparison.)
Kawakami hasn’t been Koufax, but he’s been pretty good. His ERA (4.08) is better than Derek Lowe’s (4.48). His record isn’t pretty — he’s 5-10 — but the Braves won eight of the final 15 games he started. He gave them a chance most nights. He did his job.
At his best, Hudson would be an upgrade. But it’s not going to be easy for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery to do a lot better than Kawakami has done. Maybe Hudson will go 6-1 — granted, that’s a giddy best-case scenario — where Kawakami would have gone 3-4. That’s a three-game bump. That could mean nothing at all. Or it could mean a postseason berth.
The Braves trail Colorado, the wild card leader, by 4 1/2 games. This could get very, very tight.
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87 comments Add your comment
Facts Please
August 28th, 2009
12:40 pm
Your kidding right? Hudson will not make a difference. Its not the pitching, they have been rock solid all year. Yes a game here or there but none the less our pitchers have gotten the job done.
The problem is the rest of the team. How many blown holds do we have. How many games has our lineup just stuck it up. They fixed the rotation and yes we have Hudson back but here are the facts.
They built a utility team around McCann and Escobar. They traded for LaRoche. Thats all you have. Chipper is a bumb and he should retire, he does this team no good and the 90’s is over. The rest of the team are nothing shy of utility players. Thats it, final answer. This lineup is weak and should never be playing every day.
Trade Lowe and KK and get some hitters. Our pitchers are fine, we need HITTING.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:44 pm
Bradley, be serious. You get paid for this?
What was that, like 200 words?
Unbelievable.
Kentavo
August 28th, 2009
12:51 pm
I went to one of Huddy’s rehab starts in Myrtle Beach and it was totally unimpressive – the defense didn’t do him any favors, but he did not look sharp.
PWHjort
August 28th, 2009
1:09 pm
Kentavo
I went to one of Huddy’s rehab starts in Myrtle Beach and it was totally unimpressive – the defense didn’t do him any favors, but he did not look sharp.
Well, that happens when you’re throwing for the first and second times in a year as he did in Myrtle Beach. Not that you’re drawing conclusions, but for anyone who may take that piece as “Hudson isn’t ready”, two starts at Myrtle Beach hardly have predictive value.
Mac
August 28th, 2009
1:22 pm
Kenshin Kawakami must really be a lively presence in the clubhouse, because Mark Bradley defends him like he’s not the weakest link in the rotation. Yes, he’s had some good starts, but he’s had a bunch of short, cruddy ones, too, and lost twice as many as he’s won. Yeah, that’s real good. Yet, a first baseman who was hitting 40 points higher with the same number of RBIs as the guy he was traded for was an “All-American out,” according to Bradley.
Players are mostly their results, not their personalities. Speaking of which, some people who’ve met him say Bradley can be quite the pill, too.
PWHjort
August 28th, 2009
1:28 pm
Pitcher A: 4.08 ERA, 1.75 K/BB, 1.361 WHIP
Pitcher B: 4.48 ERA, 1.64 K/BB, 1.462 WHIP
Pitcher A is Kenshin Kawakami. Pitcher B is Derek Lowe.
Hannibal Lechter
August 28th, 2009
1:32 pm
Pitcher B 12 wins.
Pitcher A 6 wins.
nique
August 28th, 2009
1:38 pm
i can’t imagine it’s going to be much of an upgrade at all in the rotation considering that cox will probably only let the guy pitch 6 inn and he’s bound to have at least one or two not so sharp games. it does give us another good arm in the pen though. if bobby was creative he could let huddy start every 5th game and plan to have KK come in as huddy’s relief and finish off the game pitching like 3-4 innings. i think i’d really be in favor of something like that. kk is really sharp in the first few innings and if we did that way we wouldn’t use any other bullpen arms every 5th day and kk basically stays in rhythm and the rotation.
Mark what do you think?
raindawg722
August 28th, 2009
1:38 pm
KK’s ERA by month
April – 7.06
May – 3.03
June – 3.33
July – 4.73
August – 3.13
D Lowe’s ERA by month
April – 3.10
May – 3.76
June – 6.54
July – 3.38
August – 5.79 (eww)
KK started out badly so he got a bad rep. He’s been better than Lowe. Not saying that would have continued if they’d left him in the rotation, but, by performance alone, he’s getting the short end of the stick here.
Benjamin
August 28th, 2009
2:23 pm
Kenshin has only 12 quality starts in 24 games? Are we certain of that statistic?
I thought a quality start was 6+ innings, 3 or less runs… seems like KK has done that rather consistently this year. Regardless, he is much better than most people realize.
yall are crazy
August 28th, 2009
2:34 pm
If the Braves are seven games out when the last week of the season arrives, there will still be some people saying, “We’re not out of it yet! We just need to win these last seven games and the Phillies lose them! We still have a shot!”
JR
August 28th, 2009
2:41 pm
The quality starts statistic is highly overrated. So comparing quality starts between Kawakami, Vazquez and Cliff Lee is a nice way of crafting stats into saying what you want them to say. Nolan Ryan has said before that quality starts is a bogus statistic, as well. Earlier this year, he was quoted as saying, ““I’ll tell you, if I gave up three runs in six innings I was hacked off. What’s the quality in that? You deserved to lose. I wasn’t very happy and I can tell you the manager and the general manager weren’t very happy either.”
PWHjort
August 28th, 2009
2:44 pm
Hannibal Lechter,
There is such a thing as luck. Or random variation. Whatever you want to call it.
Hannibal Lechter
August 28th, 2009
2:51 pm
And I’m lucky enough to have enough sense to realize the pitcher with 12 wins is better than the one with six.
Oh, I’m sorry, did that sting?
PWHjort
August 28th, 2009
3:22 pm
And I’m lucky enough to have enough sense to realize the pitcher with 12 wins is better than the one with six.
Not necessarily true. Wins have no valuation quality.
Mark Bradley
August 28th, 2009
4:16 pm
The ESPN.com statistics list Kenshin as having 12 quality starts. I was surprised it was that low, too. I’d have guessed 15.
Mark Bradley
August 28th, 2009
4:21 pm
If the Braves would call up Heyward on Sept. 1, there’d be no real reason to send him back down. The minor-league seasons end in early September.
And as I understand it, Innocent Bystander, just being on the roster on Sept. 1 makes you postseason-eligible. There are some examples of guys who got hot in September and helped their teams make the playoffs but weren’t eligible for them because they arrived too late. I believe that was the case with Len Matuszek of Philly in 1983.
Benjamin
August 28th, 2009
4:39 pm
@ JR:
I think we come from completely opposite perspectives when it comes to quality starts, as I feel it’s a very underrated stat. Pitchers are supposed to pitch well enough to keep their teams in games, and this is one of the few stats that goes game to game and recognizes that importance.
Hannibal Lechter
August 28th, 2009
4:57 pm
The team with the most wins makes the playoffs. No value there?
Smart Jay
August 28th, 2009
5:24 pm
I believe the rule is you must be on the 40 man roster on 9/1 for post season elgibility. As for the quality starts on KK, recall that he has had several decent starts where he didn’t go 6. So, if we lowered that bar to 5+ innings, it would probably be more.
richbrave
August 28th, 2009
7:43 pm
Bringing HEYWARD up SEPT. 1 starts his arb clock doesn’t it?
richbrave
August 28th, 2009
7:45 pm
KK has been more consistantly good of late. I’m sure he’ll be the first in line to espouse a six-man. LOWE won’t be far behind.
Raymond
August 28th, 2009
10:06 pm
What difference will Hudson make ? Whether we finish 2nd or 3rd in the NL east ? Why doesn’t everyone face reality-the Braves are not making the playoffs. The team is not good enough with or without Hudson. When you count pennies, it usually comes back to haunt you.
sal governale
August 29th, 2009
1:47 am
Bradley, why should anyone take you seriously when you can’t even be bothered to look up Kawakami’s correct win-loss record? (He’s 6-10.) Here’s a better idea: Why not get back to writing columns about Smoltz.
A 42-year-old HOF pitcher who makes an unprecedented return from major shoulder surgery sounds like a huge story. However, a 42-year-old pitcher who looks like he’s not going to make it back after major shoulder surgery doesn’t sound all that surprising. Why is it that you love the latter story, and ignore the former? Of course, I’m sure it has nothing to do with your personal bias against Smoltz, right Bradley?
Why not pretend to be a real journalist for a day or two, and drop the vindictive hack act? Just a suggestion, take it or leave it.
Millard
August 29th, 2009
6:13 am
The Braves don’t have a pitching problem. They continue to score 3 or less runs per game. They can not hit – they leave men on base all night!! The AJC says we got beat by Howard’s home runs, which is ridiculous. Braves bats look tired.
John
August 29th, 2009
12:15 pm
Braves choke…Braves choke… Braves choke again!!!!
PWHjort
August 29th, 2009
1:11 pm
And as I understand it, Innocent Bystander, just being on the roster on Sept. 1 makes you postseason-eligible.
You have to be on a roster on August 31 to be post-season eligible unless someone gets hurt.
Hannibal Lechter,
All things equal, Kawakami and Lowe would have the exact same number of wins (or maybe KK would have more). Pitcher wins are a useless statistic. To many outside influences to draw any conclusions.
Ward
August 29th, 2009
6:33 pm
OK, OK!! Here is the straight scoop…Hudson and the “charging” Braves finish 90-72 dead-heat with Rockies. One game “play-in”..Hudson wins it..Go Mark Bradley!!! Ward
abudefdef
August 30th, 2009
8:34 am
Hudson is a big game pitcher who knows what it takes to get to the postseason…
KEEP THE FAITH BRAVES NATION!!!
Keep the Faith!
***WHOOOOOOAAAA OOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAA WHOOOOOOOOAAA OOOOAAAAAAA***
**TOMAHAWK-A-CHOPPIN**
Skeezix
August 30th, 2009
8:46 am
Can’t wait to see Huddy start his come back against the Fish. Not been holding my breath for a post season. Right now, after getting abused by the Padres, I’m just rooting for a series win against the Phils.
Twas nice to see Lowe throwing better and the offense wake up against Lee last night.
Skeezix
August 30th, 2009
8:50 am
Yeah Mark, what about Smoltz’s great work for St. Louis?
Firearm
August 30th, 2009
1:32 pm
It didn’t help Kenshin that he hardly ever got run support when he started. Is he still 2nd-worst in the majors at run support? I know when O’Brien threw out that stat the Braves put up 3 runs and 4 runs in his next two starts. But for most of the season, Kenshin could throw a shutout and the Braves would find a way to score -1 runs.
BTW, Kenshin can’t be the Dragon Slayer–he’s the Dragon. (PLEASE tell me someone gets this joke.
Biff Pocoroba
August 30th, 2009
2:06 pm
The Braves need to leave Hudson in Gwinnett. They have a better shot at the playoffs than Atlanta.
Don
August 31st, 2009
8:59 am
One of the all time biggest mysteries in baseball is why the Atlanta Writers protect Bobby Cox. If you need more evidence of his incompetence, he continued to keep Chipper in the 3rd spot in the battig order throughout his prolonged slump. And this is just one little thing – Like of worse blunders occur day after day game after game – To say nothing of his overall complete failure to teach/emphasize/demand the absolute essental for consistant offense that hitters work the count/ be selective/ make the pitcher throw some pitches – which has multiple advantages.
slow roller
August 31st, 2009
10:54 am
Too bad Hudson can’t hit….bring Conrad back up already!!!!
Richard Weiss
August 31st, 2009
11:08 am
Won’t matter.
The problem really has been consistent offense.
Now, if we acquired a really big time bat right now, that might possibly make a difference.
Braves lose too many games, many very close, late, with very good to great pitching by the way, due to their absent offense. They have no problem piling up runs in individual games; they just are poor in clutch hitting where it really matters, late. And, they tend to try to coast on an early lead, depending on pitching, while the offense goes to sleep.
Gorecki, byh the way, along with Norton, are automatic outs. Trades are required if the management really wants to contend the last part of this year. Otherwise, start packing for next year, and please, remove the desd wood.
Richard Weiss
August 31st, 2009
11:23 am
Also would add that Gorecki is a minor league player who cannot hit major league-type pitching. He’s an OK fielder. But he has absolutely no business starting in center field for the Braves. He chokes almost everytime he is up with RISP and the braves desparately needing runs. It’s the guaranteed last out of the inning with runners on and 2 outs. Isn’t there someone else, anyone, who can replace McClouth? I thought we had some good ones down in the minors?
Norton is as bad, but at least he doesn’t start. I don’t know what’s wrong with Chipper – the Braves are toast without him and it looks increasingly like they don’t have him. Apparently, the team relies on Prado, Diaz, Infante and McCann mostly, if there is a chance to get a clutch run and they happen to be at bat. Chipper looks like he is past his prime and clueless where the pitch is or what it is and is having ongoing problems hitting even straight fastballs too. Why hasn’t Bobby put him down in the order, like 6th or 7th, until Jones can show us he is hitting like he can?