The Hot Button: Can Bobby Cox handle a pitching staff?
You know, I don’t just write these little posts. I listen to what you folks have to say about them. And in the wake of the Mets’ eight-run inning against Derek Lowe on Tuesday — not to be confused with the Braves’ eight-run inning against Bobby Parnell on Wednesday — the matter of Bobby Cox and his pitchers arose yet again.
I would suggest a check of the Braves’ team ERA over the fullness of time stands as powerful evidence that Cox does indeed know how to wrangle pitchers. From 1991 through 2002, the Braves finished first, second or third in the National League in ERA every blessed season. The only way that happens is if a staff stays healthy. The only way a staff stays healthy is if the guy in charge doesn’t overwork his men.
I know, I know. Cox had Leo Mazzone rockin’ beside him back then, and it was only after the 2002 season that the Hall of Fame rotation came unstuck — Glavine left for the Mets and Millwood was traded to Philly — and the Braves’ pitching hasn’t been quite the same since. So some of you will say: “See? That shows Cox had little to do with it. Things just managed themselves.”
In my time around big-league baseball teams, I’ve never seen any team manage itself. And I’ve seen Hall of Fame managers — Sparky Anderson in Cincinnati, say — preside over a staff that tended prime young pitchers (Don Gullett, Wayne Simpson) come down with arm trouble. The Braves fared obscenely well with the health of their starters for an obscenely long time, and that cannot have been an accident. Not for 12 consecutive seasons.
Mazzone left after 2005, and the Braves finished 10th among NL teams in ERA in 2006 and 12th last season, when all the old guys got hurt. Last season, I would submit, was a function of age, not managerial neglect. As Roger McDowell, Mazzone’s successor, has said: “There are only so many pitches in an arm.”
Given the proper arms, McDowell has held up his end. The Braves were third in the NL in ERA in 2007 and are third again now. They have a nice new rotation that has yet to see any of its members placed on the disabled list, and that’s ultimately the test of a rotation and its oversight. As Jim Leyland has often said: “It’s not necessarily the best staff that wins but the healthiest.”
And now you’re saying: “Typical — Bradley defends Cox. What’s next? A post about the sun rising in the East?” And I say …
For all his strengths, the man has taken to overtaxing his bullpen.
I wish I understood how a staff tied for the big-league lead in quality starts — a pitcher works at least six innings while yielding three or fewer runs — can also have three relievers rank in the top five among big-leaguers in appearances. (Peter Moylan has pitched in 65 games, Eric O’Flaherty and Mike Gonzalez in 60 apiece.) With so many quality starts (72), you’d think it would work the other way.
Loading ...As we know, Cox uses the same guys over and over. He deploys his closer in non-save situations, which other teams take pains not to do. Rafael Soriano has worked in 54 games, with more than half those appearances (28) under non-save circumstances. Jonathan Papelbon has worked in only 19 non-save games, Brad Lidge in 18, Joe Nathan in 15, Mariano Rivera in 14.
(No, Soriano hasn’t been the full-time closer all season. He and Gonzalez split the duty for a while. But Gonzalez has worked in 35 non-saves.)
My problem with Cox isn’t that he leaves his starters in too long — the business with Lowe on Tuesday was an obvious exception — but that he wears his relievers to a frazzle without cause. (It wasn’t always this way. At no other time in this decade have the Braves had more than one reliever among the top 10 in games.) The Braves have three relievers with 60-plus appearances. The Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers have none.
So there’s my answer, and I apologize for it being a half-step. But it’s clear, at least to me, that the same guy who handles his starters expertly has placed an undue strain on his bullpen. And when your closer yields two game-losing home runs in the span of eight days … well, it does make you wonder, does it not?
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227 comments Add your comment
Freddie G
August 20th, 2009
4:16 pm
Mark:
How can you say Bobby is better than any other Manager the Braves ever had? He may have the best record of any previous Braves Manager, but those Managers managed at a time when the Braves never made the effort to field talent at the level they are now doing. We are not sure what Joe Torre would have done if the Braves gave him the talent back in the early 1980’s like Bobby received when JS became the GM. The previous Atlanta Braves Managers were not given the talent on the level of the other NL teams, and so it is hard to make the comparison.
Smart Jay
August 20th, 2009
4:22 pm
Mark – how about something important. What’s Prado’s deal?
Frank Wren
August 20th, 2009
4:26 pm
The Braves have had ONE
FREAKIN ONE Reliever lead the leaugue in appearances since 1967
Brad Clontz in ‘96
Do you guys even bother looking at the stats?
Frank Wren
August 20th, 2009
4:28 pm
Steve Kilne led the league three straight years from ‘99 through ‘01
Does that make LaRussa and idiot?
Angus
August 20th, 2009
4:45 pm
Hey Mark,
I’m trying to understand your BC criticism, but can’t – just like Brian @ 11:42.
Was your comment “he wears his relievers to a frazzle without cause” a career or single season (2009) indictment?
Sounds like you we’re trying to make a career judgment on BC, but then, in the very next sentence you rebuke that argument (”at no other time in this decade have the Braves had more than one reliever among the top 10 in games”).
So which is it?
Skeezix
August 20th, 2009
4:59 pm
1. Truth is, I’m really mad about that 4th inning Lowe meltdown because then my wife got to take over the remote and she turned the TV to one of those Hallmark movies again.
2. Back when, I use to wake up in the middle of the night cause I dreamt Bobby had called ‘Reeksma’ from the pen. Man, no one could blow a lead quicker than ‘Reeksma’.
Kyle
August 20th, 2009
5:47 pm
I never understood the love for Jeff Bennett. I know he knows more about the game than me but even I would never have put that guy out there in a close game. I don’t have anything against Roger personally but Leo needs to be asked back as pitching coach and I’m sure he would be there in uniform before the question was even completed.
Freddie G
August 20th, 2009
5:50 pm
All I’M Saying:
Regarding your 2:57 post, have you considered the number of pitches the reliever throws in the Bullpen to warm up prior to coming in the game, and also the fact that a reliever will get up more than once in a game. I am not sure that is considered in compilig the stats as to number of appearances, but it should be noted that even if the reliever did not throw a pitch in the game it adds to the wear.
Dawgdad
August 20th, 2009
5:54 pm
Besides Boyer, Clontz,and others mentioned, you have to throw in Ground Ball Grabowski and Greg McMichael. They seemed to pitch every game for about two years until their arms fell off.
Gary Petersen
August 20th, 2009
6:05 pm
Leaving LOWE in the game was unreal…..absolute stupidity…..awful…..to let a game get away like that is terrible..especially with SANTANA pitching the 3rd game….Medlen was really well rested and a starter anyway…..it was asleepless nite for me..I thought it was about winning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
nique
August 20th, 2009
6:07 pm
Bravo!
Angus
August 20th, 2009
6:51 pm
Mark, seriously dude.
You made a very bold statement in “he wears his relievers to a frazzle without cause”. And I contend that that statement may only be applicable to single seasons and not BC’s career, not his MO – just like you said in your following sentence.
Please reply.
I’ll be back in about an hour.
And no, you’re not allowed breaks longer than 2 hours.
Mark Bradley
August 20th, 2009
7:21 pm
Sorry, Angus. I’ve been running around. And I do believe Cox has gotten worse, using the same three or four guys until they’re gassed. Maybe that’s a function of his starters not being as good; maybe he’s just playing matchup more. But Blaine Boyer and Peter Moylan were overused last season, and Jeff Bennett would have been this season. And I wouldn’t say Mike Gonzalez has improved with the increased workload.
Long answer short: I believe Bobby Cox’s tendencies have become more pronounced in recent seasons.
DAVEinNEPA
August 20th, 2009
7:51 pm
I’m going to cite the last game before the AS break. Tie game, bottom of the 9th against Colorado and Cox had burned through the entire bullpen save for the rookie Valdez. Valdez making his ML debut no less, and it was a recipe for disaster. Anybody remember? With the A break, he had a couple of starters who could have relieved, rather than put a rookie into that situation.
I’ve been watching this game for over 50 yrs now, and I’ve never seen a manager burn through a bullpen like this guy does.
I’ve always believed that the more relief pitchers you put into a game, the more likely it is you’ll get one who stinks on that particular day.
The thing that bothers me the most about the way Cox handles his bullpen is that he keeps making the same mistakes over and over and seemingly not learning anything from them. AND the FO let’s him continue to manage.
Sorry, but I’ve seen enough of this guy, especially since Mazzone left. I think Leo might have kept him from making a lot of dumb moves in the past but nobody on the coaching staff seems to be able to do that now.
I hope this is the last season for Cox. I don’t think I can take much more.
JASon
August 20th, 2009
9:43 pm
People, people, people. Soriano was used last night because he has been struggling like mad, and we need to get back to pitching good. Last night there was no chance he could give up the lead. Look, he’s really in trouble the way he’s been pitching the past 3 weeks. People are teeing off on his a$$. He’s been struggling to get even one out.
Now let me quickly summarize Bobby’s problem with regards to pitchers. He lets his deeply ingrained philosophy make all of his decisions for him, regardless of the particular situation. He doesn’t know how to adjust his decision-making based on a situation, like the Derek Lowe outing on Tuesday. A great many other examples can be found throughout the past 18 years, such as the ‘96 world series. By the way, great article, Mark.
sidslid
August 20th, 2009
9:48 pm
For one reason I always give Bobby the benefit of the doubt in managing a pitching staff: Game 4 of the 1995 World Series: Starts essentially a washed up Avery and goes to Borbon for the save. Gutsy and savvy. He had a 19-2 Maddux and as we all know now, one hit Tommy in the wings if Cleveland tied the series.
Angus
August 20th, 2009
9:55 pm
All due respect (and I do find your blogs/articles my favorites) but:
You seem to be backing off the “without cause” part and you’ve limited the statement to the ‘07-present.
‘07 we weren’t very good, ‘08 we were awful, and this year has been a tale of two halves (pre-Church, post-Church).
The problem I have with your statement is that I’ve heard that BC wears out the bullpen for the last decade plus. On the whole, it’s not true. But (a la Powell saying “there are WMD’s in Iraq”), it’s been said so much that everyone believes it. I expect that from myopic, knee-jerk fans that have only watched the Braves since ‘91 and have never followed another team.
I’m waiting for Soriano to finish the ninth….1 out…..2 outs…..base hit…..ball game.
Angus
August 20th, 2009
10:44 pm
Similarly, my 7 year-old and I were reading Silverstein tonight. While she believes me that the world is round, her personal experience suggests it’s flat.
Angus
August 20th, 2009
10:46 pm
Mañana.
John Spangler
August 21st, 2009
1:10 am
I think I have an interesting take on this subject. First off I think you give Bobby too much credit in managing the starting rotation. Honestly, this is not college and managers are not calling pitches. Yes pitchers work with the coaches (McDowell), but its not like Cox is out there teaching Gonzalez how to throw a 12-6 breaking ball ok. The pitchers and catchers work out a game plan with the coaching staff and then execute this plan. His job is to manage the flow of the game, which includes watching pitch counts which at the end of the day is much more important then innings. Innings are a dumb way to judge a pitchers effort. A pitcher can throw 3 pitches and get out of an inning or throw 30 and one can’t say that they are equally taxing on their arm. Now as for Lowe’s start the other night, that was a team effort and as much the defenses fault as his. The defense started with Infante assuming that he was going to turn a double play, which would have atleast kept the Braves in the game. Now as for the amount of games and innings that the Braves relievers have thrown, there is no doubt that they have been over worked. Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan have all been over worked and this is simply because of a weak bullpen. They have the best stuff and are the few trusted to get outs in important situations. Although at this point every outting has been an adventure with these 3. I conclusion I honestly have no answer other then when the game is on the line I’d rather have it in one of these proven veterans hand’s then in Boone Logan’s.
Mama Cox
August 21st, 2009
7:34 am
Bradley has always told you how much I love my boys. Now he has stabbed me in the back–which reporters are prone to do. But Mama Cox still loves Mama’s boys and Mama’s boys still love Mama Cox.
Beau Bock
August 21st, 2009
11:52 am
Bobby Cox has NEVER been able to think outside the box. Recent example. Last Friday night vs. Philly you had Ryan Howard leading off the 9th. He is dreadful against left handed pitching…around .139. So instead of having Gonzalez pitch to Howard, he brings in Soriano and look whay happened.
Diehard
August 22nd, 2009
1:46 pm
Maybe, Mark, someone ought to write a column about how Cox’s inability to manage pitchers TWICE in one week resulted in TWO losses when we could ill afford them. No one is writing it quite like that and its as simple as the loss column can make it – especially this week.
Rico Carty
August 23rd, 2009
3:51 pm
Sorry to change subjects but can someone explain why Gorecki, who can’t hit a lick, is the guy called up to help the outfield during the McLouth/Anderson outage. Clearly the guy cannot hit ML pitching and I don’t see any great defensive skills to justify it. All of yu who think Booby knows what he’s doing please enlighten us.
Wrangler
August 23rd, 2009
8:39 pm
You’ve got the 5 starters, and 5 credible relievers. How else are you going to do it? When the worst of the lot are Derek Lowe (currently) and Boone Logan (newbie), that’s not a bad bunch of players.
Wrangler
August 23rd, 2009
8:43 pm
Oops! Typo. Make that 7 relievers – the top 3, and O’Flaherty, Medlin, Acosta, and Logan.
Terminator
August 26th, 2009
8:46 am
I, the Terminator of the Braves message board, would like to announce here for one and all my love for another poster named Bluetooner, who I wish to blow.