The Hot Button: Can Bobby Cox handle a pitching staff?
You know, I don’t just write these little posts. I listen to what you folks have to say about them. And in the wake of the Mets’ eight-run inning against Derek Lowe on Tuesday — not to be confused with the Braves’ eight-run inning against Bobby Parnell on Wednesday — the matter of Bobby Cox and his pitchers arose yet again.
I would suggest a check of the Braves’ team ERA over the fullness of time stands as powerful evidence that Cox does indeed know how to wrangle pitchers. From 1991 through 2002, the Braves finished first, second or third in the National League in ERA every blessed season. The only way that happens is if a staff stays healthy. The only way a staff stays healthy is if the guy in charge doesn’t overwork his men.
I know, I know. Cox had Leo Mazzone rockin’ beside him back then, and it was only after the 2002 season that the Hall of Fame rotation came unstuck — Glavine left for the Mets and Millwood was traded to Philly — and the Braves’ pitching hasn’t been quite the same since. So some of you will say: “See? That shows Cox had little to do with it. Things just managed themselves.”
In my time around big-league baseball teams, I’ve never seen any team manage itself. And I’ve seen Hall of Fame managers — Sparky Anderson in Cincinnati, say — preside over a staff that tended prime young pitchers (Don Gullett, Wayne Simpson) come down with arm trouble. The Braves fared obscenely well with the health of their starters for an obscenely long time, and that cannot have been an accident. Not for 12 consecutive seasons.
Mazzone left after 2005, and the Braves finished 10th among NL teams in ERA in 2006 and 12th last season, when all the old guys got hurt. Last season, I would submit, was a function of age, not managerial neglect. As Roger McDowell, Mazzone’s successor, has said: “There are only so many pitches in an arm.”
Given the proper arms, McDowell has held up his end. The Braves were third in the NL in ERA in 2007 and are third again now. They have a nice new rotation that has yet to see any of its members placed on the disabled list, and that’s ultimately the test of a rotation and its oversight. As Jim Leyland has often said: “It’s not necessarily the best staff that wins but the healthiest.”
And now you’re saying: “Typical — Bradley defends Cox. What’s next? A post about the sun rising in the East?” And I say …
For all his strengths, the man has taken to overtaxing his bullpen.
I wish I understood how a staff tied for the big-league lead in quality starts — a pitcher works at least six innings while yielding three or fewer runs — can also have three relievers rank in the top five among big-leaguers in appearances. (Peter Moylan has pitched in 65 games, Eric O’Flaherty and Mike Gonzalez in 60 apiece.) With so many quality starts (72), you’d think it would work the other way.
Loading ...As we know, Cox uses the same guys over and over. He deploys his closer in non-save situations, which other teams take pains not to do. Rafael Soriano has worked in 54 games, with more than half those appearances (28) under non-save circumstances. Jonathan Papelbon has worked in only 19 non-save games, Brad Lidge in 18, Joe Nathan in 15, Mariano Rivera in 14.
(No, Soriano hasn’t been the full-time closer all season. He and Gonzalez split the duty for a while. But Gonzalez has worked in 35 non-saves.)
My problem with Cox isn’t that he leaves his starters in too long — the business with Lowe on Tuesday was an obvious exception — but that he wears his relievers to a frazzle without cause. (It wasn’t always this way. At no other time in this decade have the Braves had more than one reliever among the top 10 in games.) The Braves have three relievers with 60-plus appearances. The Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers have none.
So there’s my answer, and I apologize for it being a half-step. But it’s clear, at least to me, that the same guy who handles his starters expertly has placed an undue strain on his bullpen. And when your closer yields two game-losing home runs in the span of eight days … well, it does make you wonder, does it not?
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227 comments Add your comment
The Grinch
August 20th, 2009
11:40 am
EW and others, I was at a game a couple of years ago where Cox allowed CHUCK JAMES to pitch to Howard with first open in a 1 run game where he’d already hit his 5th inning wall. His first pitch (can’t remember if it was his 88 mph fastball or his 86 mph change) went right over the wall. The thing is, everyone at the park KNEW it the second the catcher squatted instead of giving the intentional walk sign. How does Everyone and their child know what to do and not Bobby? It’s almost as if someone randomly picked him from a place where they don’t play baseball just to see what would happen.
Now I’m really gone.
washedup
August 20th, 2009
11:41 am
I think Bobby should bring Mazzone back. . .well,actually I don’t. .I’m just trying to get him off the radio. .awful!
Brian
August 20th, 2009
11:42 am
And I quote, Mr. Bradley:
“My problem with Cox isn’t that he leaves his starters in too long — the business with Lowe on Tuesday was an obvious exception — but that he wears his relievers to a frazzle without cause. (It wasn’t always this way. At no other time in this decade have the Braves had more than one reliever among the top 10 in games.)”
You make two nearly opposite statements back-to-back. You say he wears his relievers out, then you say he doesn’t have a reliever in the top 10 in games this decade. I would like for you to provide evidence of your statement that he “wears his relievers to a frazzle”.
Smitty
August 20th, 2009
11:44 am
Cox’s mismanagement of the bullpen has cost the Braves championships. Using the same couple of guys over and over wears them out by the end of the season and they have nothing left. Its obvious that Soriano is tired and overworked. And while I’m at it why is McCann still in the game catching in the 6th inning of a huge blowout??? Give the guy some rest, he’s wore out too.
Brian
August 20th, 2009
11:45 am
Should say “more than one reliever”.
DDog10
August 20th, 2009
11:48 am
I agree wholeheartedly on the misuse of the bullpen. Why was Soriano used last night when the game was a route?
Ross
August 20th, 2009
11:49 am
A great analysis and correct in all points. There is something you missed though…
Cox is getting old, and sentimentality sometimes rules his actions I think. He’s in there fighting with the players when he needs to maintain his distance. He didn’t want to pull the plug on Lowe – gave him chance after chance to get that ground ball when it was clear his sinker wasn’t sinking and batting practice was on. The TV cut to Cox repeatedly and you could see in his face his thoughts were not on the scoreboard or the stike zone, but on ol’ buddy Lowe. Cox’s fatal weakness is his love for his players. A leader has to keep some distance and be dispassionate. Of course, it makes Cox a better man if not a better manager.
It’s never too late to learn – the older we get the harder we are to teach. I wish Cox could develop a thicker skin when it comes to handling his players, instead of just managing them.
-drl
Brian
August 20th, 2009
11:50 am
I’ve never seen so much anger after a 13-run win. LOL…
jacketss77
August 20th, 2009
11:53 am
I didn’t believe when I read someone in the blog post that Cox used Soriano last night…not gonna lie, I didn’t watch the last couple of innings to that game…so I went and checked the box score…I seriously can’t believe he used our closer in a 15-2 game….I could understand if he hadn’t pitched in a week or more…but come on…makes absolutely no sense…I was just talking about this in one of the blogs here yesterday…there have been so many times this year when this has happened and it has cost us in the next game or two…
Uncle Rico
August 20th, 2009
11:54 am
bottom line…we needed to add a BP arm at the deadline & did not.
Wren’s logic (if you choose to call it that) was the fact that Huddy will be back “soon” & either he or Kawakami can go 2 the pen.
well, Huddy is still about 2 weeks away & coming off TJ surgery, so that hardly makes him a sure thing.
and KK has been extremely erratic, to say the least.
so for at least the entire month of Aug, we have the same problem we’ve had all year – Cox likes his 3-4 guys & they get all the work & then their arms turn into warm yogurt in Sept.
no reason at all to pitch Soriano last night.
it’s better to let 1 guy (Medlen/Gonzo/Moylan) pitch all 3 innings in a blowout like that instead of getting 3 arms warmed up & then used for no reason.
someone needs to remind BC that he’s not the pitching coach.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 20th, 2009
11:54 am
As I posted yesterday, the “quality start” isn’t a good measure of a quality start in my opinion. Three runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA. And isn’t part of a starters job to get deep into the game and help save the bullpen? My idea of a quality start is to go 7 or 8 innings and keep your team in the game. As every game is different, that can’t really be measured with a number.
As to the original question, can Bobby handle a pitching staff? He handled it a lot better when he had three Hall of Famers in the rotation.
scott
August 20th, 2009
11:54 am
Pretty weak at making out a line-up too. LaRoche is the perfect 4 hole hitter for this team, yet he has still not hit there since his arrival.
ChillyMutt
August 20th, 2009
11:55 am
I believe that’s its obvious he can’t handle a pitching staff. Seeing Bobby leave Lowe in the other night as Met after Met crossed the plate was bizarre. He has totally lost it.
dap01
August 20th, 2009
11:58 am
Ask Brad Clontz, Chris Reitsma, Greg McMichael, Moyland, Gonzo, and Soriano. These pitchers were ruined by overuse, one year overused, the next year hurt.
This year, this month, we are up by many runs and Cox will use Moylan, Gonzo or Soriano. Yet all three have shown signs of overuse.
His pitcher switches are bizarre at best. He is a great manager but he dont SEEM to have a clue about relief pitchers (and after Lowe the other night, Cox could learn a little about starters as well).
ann lewis
August 20th, 2009
11:58 am
I have been saying this for almost a year. it is time for Wren and Cox to go
bruce
August 20th, 2009
11:59 am
Medlin has proven he can deliver. He was “taking up a spot” when he first went to the bullpen, now and mostly going forward, he will get many more appearances in tough situations. Bobby stayed with him so Kris could get it together, now it will really pay off.
Also, rosters expand soon and more arms will be available to rest those needing rest.
Tom B
August 20th, 2009
12:02 pm
Is Cox the same manager he was in the 90’s and early 2000’s. Has he stayed too long? Is he still an effective manager? These are imo the questions to address. Has Cox so poorly managed his staff in a game before during a pennant stretch as he did the other night? Why wait so long to remove a pitcher, and in essence diminishing your ballclubs chances to win the game.A manager’s main job during a game is to make moves( or not) that puts your team in the best position to win the game. This is Cox’s Achillees heel IMO, game management.
Phil
August 20th, 2009
12:03 pm
Tom B,
Yes, Cox is the same idiot he was in the 90’s and early 2000’s.
Joe Fan
August 20th, 2009
12:06 pm
Watch out Bobby is now commenting on how well Medlin is pitching. What I hope is that he doesn’t over use him during the remainder of the 2009 season. Medlin will be a starter in 2010 allowing the Braves the flexibility to trade a starter or two for more offense. Plus I don’t believe you will see Hudson back in 2010 not with a $10 mil. option and a questionable arm.
Brandon Gay
August 20th, 2009
12:06 pm
You know, there’s a few simple answers as to why Moylan, Gonzalez and O’Flaherety have worked so many games. First of all, O’Flaherety is a lefty specialist and they usually work a lot of games, but often for less than an inning at a time. O’Flaherety has appeared in 60 games, but has only pitched 41 innings. Also, with Gonzalez serving as co-closer for much of the season, O’Flaherety was the only lefty available in middle relief.
As for Moylan and Gonzalez, they have pitched so many games because there have been so many close games. For most the season the Braves have scored few runs and given up fewer. This makes for close games. Lots of one, two and three run games in late innings. So, there have been lots of opportunities for the top relievers. I worry about Moylan pitching so many innings coming back from injury, but really, who are you going to run out there in a 1-run game in the 8th inning? Manny Acosta?
‘
Ed-Covington
August 20th, 2009
12:06 pm
“It wasn’t always this way. At no other time in this decade have the Braves had more than one reliever among the top 10 in games.”
MB: You said it. And this translated into how much success for the Braves this decade?
And you use Lidge as an example of how a successful closer should be used? What’s his ERA now? 12?
Hindsight BC haters are so fickle. One night it’s “why did he put Acosta in when Gonzo was available?”; and the next night it’s “why did he put Gonzo in with a four-run lead?” How many major league pitching staffs have anyone on these blogs ever been responsible for?
As I posted yesterday, look at “innings pitched”, not “appearances” to determine if a reliever is being over-worked or not. Judging “work” for a reliever is so subjective anyway. How do you count innings pitched in the bullpen and never entering the game? Sparky was notorious for having two relievers warming up in the bullpen in the fifth inning of a scoreless game. Now that’s overworked. Go Bravos!!
Brought to you by Carl Jr’s; Thank you very much.
Lunatic Fringe
August 20th, 2009
12:08 pm
If we don’t plan on keeping some of these pitchers for next year, then why not use them up this year?
tt44
August 20th, 2009
12:22 pm
Hi Mark, I respectfully disagree. The stats you gave are fine..however, compute them into wins and losses…..that is the important fact. And, in the early days Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery, to name a few…you and I couldve managed those fellas. In my observations over the years, BC has just dumbfounded me with most of his pitching decisions. So many times he has left starter in too long when it is so obivious the pitcher dont have his good stuff, ya know what are the odds of a ground ball DP when your pitcher is worn down during the game…I mean, I can tell at home wathchign the tv and I am going its time Bobby, take him out…(of course most of the time he doesnt) and then jsut like agains the Phils….not letting Gonzo picth to Howard, knowing he struggles aginst lefties….. un acceptable…., Bring in someone to handle pitching decision! Liebrandt against Puckett…hey those where huge games for the Braves….And, dont get me started on the choke dog hitting mentality the Braves have…thats another story! Thanks…TT44
59bulldawg
August 20th, 2009
12:25 pm
Keep in mind it’s easy to look good when you have the likes of Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, and Smith on your staff for most of the 90s! Your grandma could have managed those years and still won 80-90 games a season.
SC Ace
August 20th, 2009
12:26 pm
Didn’t get to see the game. I want to say I’m stunned that Cox brought in Soriano to pitch. Not sure that I am, though. I want to support Bobby, but dadgum…
Born2Buzz
August 20th, 2009
12:31 pm
Bobby is the ultimate dichotomy (is that the right word MB) as a manager. He is the greatest regular season manager of all time (always even keel, never panics) but then he is the worst playoff manager (stays with a platoon system instead of playing the hot guys, no sense of urgency) and he seems to be the same way with handling the pitchers. He seems to be so intent on saving the arms of the starters that he’s overusing the bullpen. How can a starter ever pitch a complete game if you don’t let them try it, especially in a blowout victory like last night.
Jurrjens4NLCY
August 20th, 2009
12:31 pm
Phil, What qualifies you to complain about Bobby?
Phil
August 20th, 2009
12:35 pm
Lunatic,
We are trying to make it to the playoffs, and if we do we are going to need these guys to help out. They don’t need to be used up.
This whole question about Cox can be answered by the fact that Cox has lost more playoff games than any manager in baseball history. Do you think that someone that knows how to manage a pitching staff would hold that dubious honor?
Don’t think so.
uhohbraves
August 20th, 2009
12:39 pm
Funny how the vote always directly reflects what the blog is saying. Sheep. Bobby handles the starters well too? No.
tt44
August 20th, 2009
12:40 pm
Hey Phil, I’ll drink to that….Cox has made my hair turn grey!
jimmy
August 20th, 2009
12:41 pm
jeffery i did read the article.we are in a six and out situation with our starters.i feei with the limitations of our staff cox/mcdowell are doing a great job
peric i
August 20th, 2009
12:44 pm
Mark where do the Braves rank in complete games?
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
August 20th, 2009
12:44 pm
MB, I mostly agree. I think Bobby handles the starters pretty well. Although D.Lowe’s 4th inning was the inning from Hades, I understood Bobby leaving him. A veteran pitcher like that and you give him a chance to get out of it. At times I’m tempted to think Bobby overuses his 7-9 inning pitchers, but I just don’t think there’s anyone else strong enough to assume those roles. I do like how Medlen is coming along, though.
NO MORE BOBBY
August 20th, 2009
12:44 pm
I think (hope) this will be his last season. Just too much heat coming from fans and now you guys about Cox. Im sure Wren is aware of all this and will do some more Dr. Evil work in the off season. This will be the hardest though, removing a future hall of famer that has been with the team FOREVER. Hey, even Dale Murphy wore out his welcome in Atlanta.
Will be nice to move on, give him a statue outside Turner and retire his number.
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
August 20th, 2009
12:44 pm
P.S. In case you were wondering, I hacked my work’s website blocking system just so I could re-access your blog. I’M BACK BABY.
Mark Biles
August 20th, 2009
12:47 pm
I have always thought Bobby was clueless on how to handle his relievers. Funny thing is, it seems like he pulls his starters quick during the regular season, but not in the playoffs.
I remember a number of games over that past two seasons when he pulled starters who had allowed only one or two runs and then the relievers completely blew it because they’d been worn to a frazzle all year long.
Seems like during the playoffs and World Series, he’s left starters in games that they got their brains beat in early and the game was over (example is the 2000 playoffs versus the Cards at St. Louis when Smoltz gave up 5 or 6 runs in the first inning). Bobby is hard to figure in his handling of a pitching staff.
Uncle Rico
August 20th, 2009
12:49 pm
Bruce (11:59)….you’re correct about the Sept 1st roster expansion adding more depth to the pen.
however, this addition does not address 3 very important issues:
* the 5 months of the season that transpired before Sept. Regardless of who comes up from Gwinnett (even Huddy), the damage to the current arms is largely done based on overuse in June/July/Aug.
* the guys coming up aren’t exactly ringers. there’s a reason most of them still haven’t pitched in the show yet. to paraphrase Rick Pitino, “Dennis Eckersley is not walking through that door. Lee Smith is not walking through that door.” Hell – even Zane Smith ain’t coming through the door.
What we’re getting from the minors are innings eaters to mop up in big deficits (good & bad). that’s not all bad…I’d definitely rather save Moylan, Medlen, Gonzo, Soriano, etc & let some 20 yr old kid pitch in a 10-2 game.
* the waiver wire. who would you prefer to see on the hill in the 7th/8th if Gonzo or Moylan are tired and/or inneffective? aforementioned 20 yr old rookie or a 35 yr old vet who’s pitched in games down the stretch for 10+ yrs? We’ve all seen some of the waiver moves made since 7/31 (Smoltzie, Pudge, Alex Gonzalez to name a few). Surely there must be someone out there who’s available on the cheap & can contribute for the next 30 days.
Since the Braves have the worst record of any contender except the Cubs, they’d have a good shot at anyone on waivers.
I just don’t think it’s smart or fair to the young kid to expect him to take the mound in late Sept in a 2-2 game vs the Marlins or Phils in the 8th inning. Let the veteran do that & let the kid have the mop up innings until he’s ready.
oldmike
August 20th, 2009
12:52 pm
I still think it boils down to the quality start idea. If all you expect a starter to do is give you 6 innings then by definition you are trotting out 2-3 relievers a night. Why not ask the starters to go deeper in the game. Maybe to the 8th. Then at worst you need 1 or 2 to finish. The starters are your best pitchers aren’t they?
Maybe go to a 6 man rotation? The pitch counts don’t matter because you’ll have fewer starts and thus innings and pitches over the long haul of the season.
But, check out the stats for the horses of the sixties to the eighties. Seaver, Carlton, Gibson, Ford, etc. Regularly 250+ innings. Double digit complete games. And, long careers. Maybe there are other reasons why pitchers break down more today than innings. Breaking balls in their early teens? I don’t know the answer but the Braves under Mazzone always pitched a LOT. Strong arms stay strong by being used intelligently.
Scottbravesfan
August 20th, 2009
12:53 pm
Bobby letting Soriano pitch last night when the Braves were up by 12 runs was a joke.
Phil
August 20th, 2009
12:54 pm
Jurrjens4NLCY,
What qualifies me to complain about Bobby? Probably the same as you to worship him. How can you be content and happy about sitting home during the playoffs? This is where we are now with Cox. He’s not going to turn it around, it will be like this until he retires. Are you content for another 5 years of this should Cox decide to keep staying?
chris from md
August 20th, 2009
12:56 pm
Mark, I agree with everything you said. I wonder sometimes if Cox is thinking ahead. Even last night– I realize that Soriano hadn’t pitched in five days. But tonight we face Santana. If we pull off a win, odds are that we’ll need Soriano. And if we use him tonight, that means Soriano will either be unavailabe against the Marlins on Friday or pitching three days in a row.
The other thing that sometimes bothers me is that he rarely skips the 5th starter’s start. I realize that KK isn’t a whole lot worse than the others but I’d like to see JJ, Vasquez, and Hanson pitching every 5 days no matter what.
But like you, I think Cox is the best.
Chris from MD
frank
August 20th, 2009
12:56 pm
He can handle picking burgers, and making cute nicknames for grown men.
sincerely,
doggy, frenchy, smoltzie, joby
Brad Komminsk
August 20th, 2009
12:57 pm
I think part of the reason for the over-use is that the Braves do not finish games because they do not score enough runs (not counting last night). They have few blow-outs either way, and have played a bunch of extra inning games.
Allen Roberts
August 20th, 2009
1:00 pm
To me this has always been the downfall of the Braves and lack of World Series rings.Cox insists on carrying extra bullpen help but will only use 3 of 6 or 7 every day and by August those 3 wear down and have nothing for the postseason.The effects are a short bench(plus he is reluctant to DL anyone and always seems to have 1 or 2 players not available on an alreay short bench.) You or I could have looked good with Smoltz Glavine,Maddux,etc.
59bulldawg
August 20th, 2009
1:01 pm
As for Cox’s underachieving, it didn’t just begin with his 2nd Atlanta stint. It happened in Toronto as well! The great rosters he’s been privileged to manage hide many of his shortcomings but when he had not so talented a group of players during his first Atlanta stint, his great prowess at managing players did absolutely nothing and he was fired. For many of you supporting Cox as the best manager in the history of the world, he’s pretty much all you’ve ever known. You’re comfortable with him because he skippered the team during its glory years. But those years were far and away due more to the talent Cox coached than to Cox himself. Cox is a good manager but I can’t say he’s a great manager . . . not with his postseason record.
M45
August 20th, 2009
1:04 pm
Its clear to me that this bullpen has shown signs of fatigue.Soriano was the most consistant guy in the bullpen and probably the best reliever the braves have.They need maybe another long reliever to burn some innings like a Kawakami when Hudson gets back.The night Lowe just completly lost it, that would of been a good time to bring in a long releiver.Cox sometimes leave pitchers in the game to burn instead of getting them out of there when they struggle sometimes I beleive he hesitates to go to a guy in the bullpen maybe because a little lack of confidence in some of the guys in the pen.
Charlie
August 20th, 2009
1:08 pm
Dumbest question you ever asked. Name one pitcher who stunk with the braves who went on to be better else where. Jason Marquis might be one, but he was OK here, and there was no room for to keep him on the staff at the time to develop. Maybe Wainwright, but again, never really go the chance. There are so many washed up pitchers who were who re-started their careers I can’t begin to count.
Bleu_Bayou42
August 20th, 2009
1:08 pm
MB,
My question is, would the Umps have giving Medlin all the time he needed to warm up if Cox would have pulled Lowe out earlier in the that 4th inning because of his finger/hand?
I just hate to lose and that game Tuesday night with Lowe just seemed like deja vu to me with his unfathomable loyalty to his veteran starting pitchers. Lowe was obviously hurt (blister/callus) on his hand in the 4th.
Now after the game, Bobby Cox did make a good point that he was hoping to get that ground ball from his sinker pitcher, but it just didn’t happen, not to mention Lowe was coming up to bat at the top of the 5th as well.
matches
August 20th, 2009
1:09 pm
I assumed Soriano went in last night so Bobby/ Roger could get a look at him in a non-pressure situation. The guy’s been complaining of pain and hasn’t pitched in a week – do you really want his first game back to be a high-pressure one-run game?
Bleu_Bayou42
August 20th, 2009
1:10 pm
Charlie< Jason Schmidt