The Braves are fighting against time, and they might win
Bit by bit, the Braves are getting there. They followed a 5-2 California swing with a 4-2 homestand. They’re 18-11 since the All-Star break. If they keep playing at that pace, they’ll finish with 89 wins, and 90 wins would have won the National League wild card each of the past four seasons.
They’re 5 1/2 games behind the Phillies, but more important they’re three games back of Colorado, which leads the wild card race. The Braves probably won’t win the NL East. They have a very good chance of winning the wild card.
Because they’re hot, and they’re reasonably healthy, and they could get a further boost from Tim Hudson very soon, and the schedule the next 10 days is kind. Six of the nine games are against losing teams, and the other three are against Florida, one of three clubs ahead of the Braves in the wild card chase.
If they keep playing the way they have, they’ll enter the final fortnight in position to make the playoffs. And how do those last two weeks look? Only terrific. Seven games against the Nats, three against the Mets, three with the Marlins. This could happen, folks. It really could.
But now you’re going back to the numbers in the first paragraph — on pace to win 89 when 90 is the benchmark — and you’re asking: Why couldn’t they have played like this a little sooner? Like, back in May? Because they weren’t this team back then.
Those Braves had four All-American outs in the lineup — Jordan Schafer, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman. (Even when Francouer or Kotchman hit the ball, they didn’t hit for much effect.) None of those four players is a regular today. The Braves have plugged the holes.
They haven’t done it with big name and they still lack a big-timer run-producer — the latter failing was evident against the Phils over the weekend — but they have a professional lineup now. And with this pitching, that’s usually enough.
They might fall short. They might not. For now, though, it’s important to go back to that number: The Braves are on track to win in the neighborhood of 90 games a year after losing 90. They’ve turned themselves around, and they’re not all that far from turning into a playoff team.
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215 comments Add your comment
KornDawg
August 18th, 2009
5:39 am
I can’t stand it when people comment just to say “first”! That being said (written), FIRST! Anyway, I really like the way this team is playing right now. Losing 2 against the Phillies certainly sucked, but I don’t get the feeling that all is lost yet.
steve whitmire
August 18th, 2009
6:33 am
Talking about plugging holes, you left out one major name: Tommy Hanson. Early in the year we had jo jo Reyes in the number five starting slot, did he ever win even one game? Hanson is one of the best pitchers in the majors in my opinion, huge addition, go Braves!
Barry
August 18th, 2009
6:36 am
Aside from the manner in which Frank Wren dispatched Glavine (although it was the right baseball move), he has done a magnificent job of restructuring this team, with more young talent on the way. And for all the Bobby Cox haters, is this season not testimony of how he is the master at holding a team together and keeping them from falling apart until they could gain some footing and get back in the race.
Mac
August 18th, 2009
6:39 am
Man, Bradley, you’ve got a real hard heart against us glum people, don’t you? A .280 hitter with 40 RBI’s at midseason is an All-American out? Geez.
Angus
August 18th, 2009
6:42 am
Not to be confused with the ‘27 Yankees, the Braves are as good as any other team in the WC chase – if healthy, probably better.
When we bought our season tickets this year, it came with a signed bat. Do you think 32/32, black, ash, Mizuno is worth more or less with Casey Kotchman’s signature?
Mac
August 18th, 2009
6:43 am
That being said, I like the LaRoche trade. I hope they will sign him to a longterm deal and start seeing what other positions Freddie Freeman can play.
Mike in Valdosta
August 18th, 2009
7:00 am
It is always nice to read an optimistic piece in the morning. Thanks
Hot Sauce
August 18th, 2009
7:17 am
Mac. Laroche a long-term deal? Too early in the morning for alcohol.
The Braves definitely have a “good” shot of hunting down the wild card. No team ahead of us are very scary. We must keep healthy and producing throughout the entire line up. Go Bravos! Loaf stinks!
"Chef" Tim Dix
August 18th, 2009
7:20 am
Mark, I agree they have a shot at the wild card but the schedule only favors them in the head ot head match ups in the division.
S.F. doesn’t seem to be fading, in fact, L.A. could drop into wild card contention.
Scoreboard watching for late scores is fun again.
Kevin
August 18th, 2009
7:24 am
Not if can’t put away arizona by a bigger lead n the fellow who tryed his best give back….be glad was arixona we played are u be hearin of the biggest choke job ever if lost 10-9….and bobby a great coach right i am the queen he the biggest choker in Baseball world series n Natl.league champ. series n wildcards….we were the team of 90’s remember till yankees took it 4-0 in 1999 remember Mark bradley are did u sniff glue
Mac
August 18th, 2009
7:25 am
Then don’t drink any.
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
August 18th, 2009
7:27 am
Braves are done. That being said, I like the moves they have made. If the Braves had the payroll available, they could win the East.
rhynster
August 18th, 2009
7:29 am
Gee, Kevin.
Talk about someone sniffing glue.
Put away the Elmer’s, my friend.
chemdawg
August 18th, 2009
7:47 am
Baseball prospectus simulations still have braves at 14.5% chance to win the division and 9.7% chance to win the wild card. It just makes more sense “statistically” for one or two teams to cave in (see Mets 2008 season via Glavine’s meltdown) than 4 or 5 teams. The tendency is for a .550 winning percentage team to play .550 winning percentage baseball. If you anticipate otherwise it’s like flipping a coin 5 times and predicting heads 5 times in a row. It can happen, but don’t put money on it.
P.S. the braves still have several head-to-head games left with Philly
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
August 18th, 2009
7:51 am
I’m with ya, MB. If we keep on winning 4 out of 6, that puts us at 91 wins at the end of regular season — good enough.
JASon
August 18th, 2009
7:55 am
Thanks Mark, your perspective is sound here. I wasn’t a huge fan of the kotchman trade at first but man can laroche hit! And if Chipper had been his normal self this year, who knows where we’d be. Well, at least he’s been on the field for the most part. Go braves
Bob J
August 18th, 2009
7:58 am
If it wasnt for Ryan Howard… why pitch to him, walk him. Raul had been slumping. The offense was certainly missing against average pitching. Cliff Lee will have to be faced, the Phils arent the same team we pounded early on. But the Braves did not play bad. San Fran and Colorado have stuggled against the dodgers who they still have to play. The G-Men cant hit, so if we can break our curse against the Teal Monster Fish from Miami, I like our chances. The Mets and their injuries may take the fun out of the slaughtering their fixing to get or will we be cursed by Frenchy?
Kashi
August 18th, 2009
8:22 am
Give LaRoche…..3 years deal similar to what Pirates gave him. If we are not in play off, trade him for minor leaguear in 2011. What is wrong with Chipper? Did he all of sudden STOP working out or too busy being a good dad?
Bravos 123
August 18th, 2009
8:23 am
Mark, you’ve been nailing the articles recently; you are willing to speak the truth while others (coughSchultzcough) have been Francoeur apologizing.
I like the idea that there are many games vs. NLeast opposition left to control our own destiny, but the Marlins are going to be tough to overtake with their great pitching and hitting. Should be close.
Give major props to Wren and Cox for the moves that have been made. They have reshaped the team in a big way this midseason and it has worked; they have a legitimate shot now, which I wouldn’t have said two months ago.
Favorite move = McLouth (except for the D.L. part)
What’s your favorite move?
Reid Adair
August 18th, 2009
8:29 am
The pitching is there, but I’m still not convinced the offense has what it takes to be consistently strong. They haven’t shown it all year, not even in this 18-11 stretch since the All-Star Break.
"Chef" Tim Dix
August 18th, 2009
8:34 am
To whom it may concern:
Please, enough with the 3-4 yr. Roachy deal senarios.
We let him go for a reason, the Pirates let him go for a reason, and Boston let him go FOR A REASON!
Wren’s Braves will be built on the triad of Hayward, Hanson, and Freeman.
dl
August 18th, 2009
8:35 am
They’re done, why kid ourselves. If by some miracle, they squeek into the playoffs, whatever hot streak ther’re in will be put out by B.Cox and his world famous postseason motivation techniques.
Chris
August 18th, 2009
8:35 am
Still no confidence. What’s troublesome is something you think is an asset – seven games against the Nats. I’m not sure if you’ve checked recently, but we’ve struggled against them for the last two years. And they’re playing much better ball under Riggles.
Let’s finish the season over .500.
Fan since 4-12-66
August 18th, 2009
8:40 am
Maybe whatever illness the Mets caught late-season the last two years will move down to Philly. I’d also like to see us sign LaRoche for a couple of years/team option for 3rd. Maybe the doc who helped Smoltz all those years ago could help “Rochey” with his first half woes. Since it seems that more wild card teams from the NL east win the Series than division winners, maybe being 2nd wouldn’t be all bad.
Jason Heyward - Put me in Coach
August 18th, 2009
8:40 am
It may be a long shot, but in a game where we have a sizeable lead, maybe bringing in this kid as a pinch hitter or something. This line-up needs a spark. Any thoughts?
Pendleton
August 18th, 2009
8:46 am
I keep telling the guys, “Hit the ball! Hit the ball!” but they don’t listen.What else can I do?
Jeff R
August 18th, 2009
8:48 am
The wild-card isn’t a longshot. Braves are very much in the hunt. I do agree that the Bravos will need to win 90 games to accomplish the mission.
Re: Bank Walker Texas Ranger
August 18th, 2009
8:48 am
Braves are done. That being said, I like the moves they have made. If the Braves had the payroll available, they could win the East.
I agree here, please bring back Ted Turner or someone talk to Arthur Blank about buying the braves again. Also, someone in accounting help Liberty Media go under so they have to deal the braves. Arthur did not buy due to tax implications. As long as merchandising and ticket sales are up, Liberty media has no incentive to spend more money. This can be a contradictory statement, but spend less and save more. We need a more passionate buyer here.
We need to loosen the belt here to bring in the bat’s on offense. We need a high on base hitting average average and home run hitting ability.
jimma
August 18th, 2009
8:49 am
bring haywood up now get rid of the roach
mitch
August 18th, 2009
8:53 am
Korndog–people criticize others for celebrating with “First,” but you see now what heady wine it is and why some can hardly hold back at the achievement. I know how it feels from experience on this very blog and always try to congratulate the current holder of the position. So, congratulations, Korndog!
curtis jones
August 18th, 2009
8:53 am
Absolutely. Some recent moves in the right direction, but still a long way to go; namely the large vacant space between Bobby Cox’s ears.
1. If you’re going to pitch to Ryan Howard, even when unnecessary, at least buzz him from time to time. At this rate, the only trophy the Braves will win is “Most Polite.”
2. Begin working on a longterm plan for an actual, solid closer. Neither Gonzo or Soriano has what it takes to be counted on game after game. Gonzo is either lights out, or Wild Thing. Soriano comes out some nights like a cold-blooded killer, but on other nights he seems timid and tired. Neither are playoff/championship caliber. We should soon be dealing with a surplus of starting pithers/role players. Let’s figure out a way to get a real closer, and one more power bat before the minor leaguers are ready.
3, After we (hopefully) say goodbye to Garret, let’s deal for an outfielder who’s a few years younger who can play LF aggressively. The loafin’ DH needs to either retire or find a rockin’ chair in the AL. Let’s find a hitter who can also defend in the field.
4. Let’s find a true cleanup hitter, and insist that McCann learn a second position, like 1B or LF. We have one of the great young hitters in the game, but batting 4th game after game, while playing the most demanind position in the field will wear him down within a few years. It looks like it may have already started.
5. Reintroduce Chipper Jones to the concept of plate discipline. He must be among the league leaders in first-pitch outs. His power is gone. He’ll be lucky to finish with 18 HR and 75 RBI this year. Low production for a # 3 hitter.
6. If Bobby insists on keeping Kelly Johnson on the team, put him back in the OF where he’s comfortable. He’s still a butcher at 2B, and Infante’s back now.
7. Extend Wren, get rid of Cox. Wren’s shrewd moves (getting rid of out-machine Franceour, perpetual dark cloud Kotchman, head-case Bennett, etc.) have gotten the Braves back into the mix. Had Cox continued to run his favorite players out there night after night, we’d be closer to the Nats than the wild card.
Spiffy
August 18th, 2009
8:57 am
Yeah, Laroche was sent to the Pirates for a reason, to get a dang good reliever named Mike Gonzalez. Now, sign Laroche to a longterm deal. Freeman could be two years away. Dude’s 19 years old.
GT Falcon
August 18th, 2009
8:58 am
“four All-American outs”….ha ha. Good one Mark.
don
August 18th, 2009
8:58 am
Good to see that Braves have no interest in Smoltz. Obviously, Smoltz has no interest in the Braves either. He wants to play for a truly legitimate contender and that’s not the Braves.
Bama Aaron
August 18th, 2009
8:58 am
Good article Mark. I think the Braves definitely have a shot but even if they win 4 out of every 6 it’s going to be tough. I don’t think San Fran or Colorado are going to seriously fade. Colorado plays the majority of their remaining games at home. And we don’t play them anymore…so it’s gonna be very tough. That being said I think with our pitching now we have a reasonable shot at 90 wins. 1 thing has to change though. Cox has to let the starters pitch longer and give the pen some rest. Soriano is getting hit around because his shoulder is over-worked and Gonzalez hasn’t been as good as his numbers indicate. He’s been getting lucky to work back out of the jams he’s gotten himself into. Cox keeps this up we’ll need a 5 run lead every night to keep the pen of giving it back away.
Don
August 18th, 2009
8:59 am
The main thing that the Braves are fighting against is Bobby Cox’s incompetence. In so many games, he is the “Star of the Game” for the other team.
Mark Bradley
August 18th, 2009
9:00 am
My favorite move: trading Francouer.
Claudell Washington
August 18th, 2009
9:01 am
Let’s see how the Phillies play while leading the division this year. The last two years they had to come from behind. Could they feel the pressure down the stretch?
Tami
August 18th, 2009
9:06 am
You know, my thinking is this: Win or lose, this Braves team will make it very difficult for any team in the NL to win their division or achieve the Wild Card. Perhaps, during that process, they may find themselves the Wild Card or NL East Division winner. It’ll depend on hungry they are from that point on how deep they would go into the postseason, IF of course, they get there.
Blackberry Cobbler
August 18th, 2009
9:07 am
If we do re-sign LaRoach, pay him for only 1/2 the season since that’s about all he’s good for. Same for Anderson, fans sit around the first half the season waiting for something, anything. Only to get nothing until the second half.
Don
August 18th, 2009
9:08 am
Sunday night’s key game against the Phils – Going against a rookie pitcher – Our leadoff man in the game has a 2-0 count and he swings at the next pitch – This tells it all as far as Cox’s understanding of managing the offense.
Tami
August 18th, 2009
9:09 am
I agree with Curtis Jones’ point #3. While Garret has lifted the Braves a few times, I’ve been extremely disappointed how he plays LF. We need an aggressive go-getter to field potential flyouts. He’s given up on quite a few “playable” flies to LF that I’ve seen other L-fielders easily catch. I wonder if Schafer would be better at LF? Just thinking “out loud” there….
Don
August 18th, 2009
9:11 am
In TWO different situations in the Philly series, with us trailing in the LATE innings, our first hitter in an inning, started the inning with a 2-0 count – and then swung at the next pitch – unbelievable – typical Cox mismnagement.
Justafan
August 18th, 2009
9:11 am
Agree Curtis Jones. Bobby needs to retire. Chipper, I love the guy but maybe its time to move him to AL . Closer and big bat is a must.
retired scout
August 18th, 2009
9:12 am
If the Braves fail to make the play-offs (and no one here knows whether they will or not), look no further than their 3 and 4 hitters. Jones and McCann are probably the least productive 3,4 combination in the NL. These guys have been in the line-up, with plenty of opportunities to hit HR’s and drive in runs, but the results aren’t there.
dcbrave
August 18th, 2009
9:13 am
A little perspective: The miracle Braves of 1991 were two games back with nine games to play and went on to outsprint the Dodgers to the post. In fact, they won the division with one game to spare. The baseball season is sooooo long that teams cannot be judged on one series or one week.
Think about it, the Braves are 9-4 in the last two weeks and have shaved two games off the Wild Card lead, but it was like a wake on here after the Phillies loss. The Braves need to keep winning series and posting 2 loss weeks, but they will lose between now and late September. Probably more than once. The good news is, so will the teams ahead of them (all of which are just as flawed as the Braves).
There is time for this team. Three games back with 40-plus to play isnt as good as 3 games up, but its a lot better than a punch in the face. This team is built around pitching and professional / gap hitters, which makes it unlikely to go on many stirring, emotional 15 game winning streaks, but it does mean that they can win, as they just have, 9 out of 13 over two weeks and pick up a game or two a week. If they do that, they should be looking very good at the end of September.
Optimistic? Probably. But either way, the Braves’ season has a lot of life left in it.
All I'm Saying Is...
August 18th, 2009
9:15 am
Braves just need to keep doing what they are doing: focus on the next game and forget about the last one and keep pushing.
Bradley said they were done back on June 17th not long after we obtained Nate and later said we could win the division and has since written that we could win the wild card at least a couple of times so he’s obviously decisive.
Back at the all star break, I said that we could win the wild card and I stand by that. I also said that winning the division is meaningless in terms of determining whether you can make it to the World Series since you don’t receive a bye or play a demonstrably weaker opponent (no such thing when there are only four teams in the playoffs from each league unlike basketball with eight in each conference qualifying).
Sending Schafer down was a no-brainer and getting McLouth was a smart move but this streak all started with inserting Prado into the lineup and sitting KJ. Trading Frenchy showed how unsentimental Wren was about his job and trading for LaRoche showed how well he had been paying attention because a number of posters on this blog kept making excuses for Kotchman whenever I would point out that 1B is a primarily a slugging position in the batting lineup (always has been in baseball and the Braves going back to Sid Bream, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, etc. and always will be) just like 3B and your corner outfielders. You can’t let someone’s defensive prowess blind you to their offensive deficiencies.
So at this point, like I typed, we truly simply need to play them one game at a time and handle our business.
Justafan
August 18th, 2009
9:16 am
Right on Mark, Frenchy was also my favorite move. Thanks Frank.
not so fast, my friend
August 18th, 2009
9:21 am
Nice article, MB. My favorite move was also the Frenchy trade. He’s actually up in the .260’s since the trade, so it was good for both players, better for the Braves. I disagree with Kotchman being lumped as an all American out. He was hitting 25-30 points higher than LaRoche when the trade was made, up close to .280, I think. I’d agree that we certainly had 3 outs plus the pitcher in every lineup. It still is confusing as to why Kelly is on the team, he has reverted back to his pre-demotion habits at the plate, and Norton would seem to be a candidate to be replaced by the Gwinnett second baseman, Conrad, who was hitting well during his stay here.
I love Bobby, but he has absolutely worn Soriano out by using him too often, many times in non save situations, and probably has done the same with Gonzo. I don’t know if it is his idea or McDowell’s, but the bullpen has been slaughtered the last few years, and we see them wear down every August because of it, and the starters, not having been allowed to go much past 6 or 7 all season, can’t be suddenly expected to go into the 8th or 9th. I believe maybe it is time for BC to retire to the front office, or to Adairsville.
James Bailey
August 18th, 2009
9:23 am
Don, the main thing the Braves are fighting against is all the lefties in the batting order. McClouth, McCann, Anderson, LaRoche, Church. I’ll say it again, especially because I believe this is how Philadelphia took two of three, the hits and run producing will not hold up when you are facing LH pitching in a line-up loaded with lefty hitters. I still cannot figure out the trade for Church. They needed a RH hitter.