One big man + one fat pitch = one huge Braves loss
Say goodbye to the tie, and the game, and the series. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
One fat pitch. One hanging changeup to a big man who did what a big man should do with a hanging changeup. One fat pitch and one big loss on a rainy Sunday night that crept into Monday morning.
The Braves lost Game 3 to the Phillies the same way they lost Game 1 — by throwing the wrong pitch to the wrong man and watching Ryan Howard send it over the wall. The big man had two homers on the night and three for the weekend, and if you’re looking for the reason the Phils are apt to win a third consecutive NL East title and the Braves will have to hustle to grab the wild card, there it is.
The Braves have nobody who can make an opponent pay the way Ryan Howard made Rafael Soriano pay Friday and Javier Vazquez pay double on Sunday. They have some decent hitters who can put the ball in play, but they have to work hard to string an inning together. Their biggest innings of the weekend yielded two runs — on Brian McCann’s two-run homer Saturday and the subsequent Brad Lidge error-fest.
Think of it this way: Howard did more damage on one Vazquez changeup than the Braves did in any of their 27 innings.
“When he gets hot, he’s as dangerous as any hitter in the league,” said Matt Diaz, who provided the Braves’ only run Sunday with an opposite-field homer and half their total of four hits.
The pitching in the series was roughly equal. The difference was that the Phils had Howard to hit the Braves’ pitches and the Braves have nobody of such eminence. Heck, they don’t even have a Chase Utley. Or a Raul Ibanez. Or even a Jayson Werth.
Yunel Escobar leads the Braves with 60 RBIs. Were he a Phil, he’d be tied for fifth with Pedro Feliz. With Chipper not having a Chipper-like year, the Braves’ offense — even in its recent improved manifestation — is still pitch and putt. There’s no Pujols, no Howard, no big bopper.
Shock stat: The Braves have actually outhit the Phillies for average (.264 to .257) but have scored 83 fewer runs. That’s because the Braves can’t muster up the three-run homer that Howard hoisted off Vazquez in the sixth inning Sunday. They wish they could, but they lack such a man. They used to have a bunch of big hitters, but not anymore.
“We could have won all three games,” Bobby Cox said, but they were lucky to walk away with one. They scored seven runs in the series. Howard drove in six himself.
The Phillies lead the Braves by six games with 45 to play. The Phils left town having restored a bit of order to nature, having beaten the Braves for the first time in four series. It’s still conceivable the Braves could win the division, but it’s no longer realistic.
The wild card, however, is another matter. The Braves are 3 1/2 games back. They still have a chance in that chase. But at this late date it’s hard to imagine Philly’s big man allowing his club to be overhauled by a bunch of bantamweights.
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96 comments Add your comment
Dumbfound
August 17th, 2009
1:35 am
Any chance of Heyward getting up here ?! I think he is away better option than Ryan Church ! Damn it ! We can’t seem to fix that right field problem ! I know Heyward is young But, How old was Ryan Howard when he came up ?! I believe he was the same age Howard was.
Dumbfound
August 17th, 2009
1:36 am
Same age as Heyward was !
Ted Striker
August 17th, 2009
3:32 am
All of this is Frank Wren’s fault. He should have retained Tom Glavine and signed John Smoltz so that those two icons could have been the Braves pitchers to give up home runs instead of Soriano and Vazquez.
Yeah, yeah, the Braves would’ve still lost both games (by a much larger margin) and yeah, yeah, the Braves would now be 17 games behind the Phillies — but at least Glavine and Smoltz were awesome back in the mid-90’s. (You know, when Michael Vick was heading from Junior High to High School).
Whopper Dawg
August 17th, 2009
3:37 am
Yep, guys like that are called difference makers.
David
August 17th, 2009
3:49 am
And the Phils have more than one. “Yunel Escobar leads the Braves with 60 RBIs. Were he a Phil, he’d be tied for fifth with Pedro Feliz.” Wow.
SorryFan
August 17th, 2009
5:41 am
Stick a fork in them, the Braves are done (for the year).
abudefdef
August 17th, 2009
5:46 am
SorryFan…applicable name
6 games left against the Phillies…and the Braves pitching can keep them in the hunt for the NL Division…hitters 1-8 are capable of getting it done, maybe not in the dramatic Ryan Howard crushing homerun fashion, but they can get it done…some timely hitting, consistent pitching, and smart baseball and the Bravos CAN creep back up into the hunt for the NL East…the Phillies will implode for a stretch, but the Braves just need to stay consistent and win the rest of their series…
KEEP THE FAITH BRAVES NATION!!!
Keep the Faith
***WHOOOOOAAAAA OOOOOAAAAAAAA WHOOOOOOOOOOAAAAA OOOOOOAAAA***
**TOMAHAWK-A-CHOPPIN**
GT
August 17th, 2009
6:24 am
WHY did the Braves even pitch to Howard? I would have walked him every time he came to the plate and taken my chances with the next guy. This series reminds me of the time Bonds hit 5+ homers against the Braves. I asked the same question then WHY does Cox not pitch around the opposing team’s most dangerous hitters?
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
August 17th, 2009
7:03 am
GT, I probably wouldn’t have walked Ryan Howard to get to the next guy — it’s Jayson Werth. He’s also another one who’s made us pay on several occasions.
GT
August 17th, 2009
7:50 am
I hear you Mrs. CB but I would have still taken my chances with Werth instead of Howard.
Skeezix
August 17th, 2009
8:03 am
Mark: You’re right-lack of offensive punch is the key difference between ATL and the Phils. The quality of pitching is very close, but they clearly beat us in offensive production. This is why the Phils should prevail in the NL East.
Phil
August 17th, 2009
8:04 am
GT,
Because Cox is a Moron, that’s why.
Mrs. Chanandler Bong Jr
August 17th, 2009
8:06 am
Mom, I told you that our pitching staff has the stuff to shut down ANY lineup…unfortunately our offense only scored one run…now, if WE had 4 runs, it would have been a different story!
Escobar Rocks
August 17th, 2009
8:09 am
Since Escobar leads the Braves in RBIs (and has been one of their best hitters), why isn’t he listed as one of the candidates for the “team MVP” vote on the Braves homepage?
Bob Horner had a sweet compact swing
August 17th, 2009
8:15 am
the Braves not done….no fork necessary…they just need to keep winning 2 out of 3…and keep hitting…
abudefdef
August 17th, 2009
8:28 am
To answer your question, Escobar Rocks: I believe it’s because of his BLONDE hairdo…
alan Crowell
August 17th, 2009
8:29 am
Your column today that the Braves are good in 09 and will be better in 10 is a bit over stated. Prospects, no matter how good, are still prospects until they show they can make the leap. Other than starting pitching this year, and some good relief work at times, the Braves have been awful. They just can’t hit, especially in run producing situations. Diaz’s comments are way off target. There is no timely hitting and the defense is no more than OK. Cox, the eternal optimist, says they could have won all 3 games when the reality is that they can’t hit when it counts and they should have lost all 3 if they didn’t get a gift on Saturday. While I was ready to get rid of Francoeur, Church is certainly no upgrade, although he is at least a little patient at bat. I know that no one wanted JF, but giving him to the Mets may turn out to be a big mistake since it appears initially that we got very little in return. Releasing him may have been better. I’m not sure how many hitting coaches in the league actually make a difference, but TP has just not gotten it done for the Braves.
Nativebird
August 17th, 2009
8:31 am
MB, so true so true. You’ve written on this deficit a number of times, and how many times do these blind Braves fans have to have it proven to them: Small ball will get you in the game, but it won’t get you in the playoffs at this level.
Frank Wren HAD THE CHANCE to acquire a big RBI bat at the deadline, and the fact still remains…HE PASSED ON IT.
and all the things that those who noticed said at the time are coming true. Playoff teams hit HR’s, Playoff teams, EVEN when playing not well, can win crucial games with one swing of the bat.
The Atlanta franchise CHOSE not to go to the playoffs this year.
Believe it.
mcgannfan
August 17th, 2009
8:40 am
I ask the same, Escobar Rocks………why wasn’t he listed among the others for MVP on main page? Guess they put himm in the “Other” category. Shame on ajc for such ignorance@!!@!
Escobar should have been first on that list!
Let's Go Bravos!
August 17th, 2009
8:44 am
I am a big Chipper Jones fan, but he is killing us. He’s supposed to be the team’s leader and getting big hits when it counts the most. But all he’s doing lately is maybe hitting a homerun when we are winning by a few runs. He needs to generate some offense and power, which this weekend showed that he doesn’t have much right now.
If he’s hurt, then bench him and let him heal. We are still a decent team with Prado playing 3rd and Infante playing 2nd, than we are when Chipper plays hurt!
Blackberry Cobbler
August 17th, 2009
8:49 am
I’ll proudly stand by what I posted on Friday. Everytime this season the Braves have had a chance to really make a move, they crap in their own nest. Losing 2 of 3 to the Phils doesn’t end the season but it demonstrates this team just doesn’t have what it takes.
I don’t care what the ERA’s and other stats show, this Braves pitching staff has been overrated all year- especially Lowe and Vasquez. How many big games and against really good teams have they won?
Lastly, you can’t build a team around a 37-year old injury prone player. The addition of LaRoach is good. But it total, the LaRoach, McClouth, and Church deals have done little for this team. The need for power was never addressed and the need for more pitching was never addressed.
Don
August 17th, 2009
8:50 am
Bobby Cox must be the worst offensive manager in baseball. Last night (Sunday) the first four men to bat in the game swung at the first strike that they saw. It is absoulutely unbelievable that a man could manage for 20 plus years and understand so little about run production, generating offense, and putting pressure on the opposing team. To make the situation even more unbelievable, this was a rookie pitcher that they had seen (I believe) only once before. This is typical Bobby Cox – he seems to have no understanding of the necessity of working the count and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches. His lack of management has the Braves next to last in all of baseball in average number of pitches seen per at bat – which guarantees inconsistant run production – and failure. This is absurd. His management of the offense seems to consist of writing down a lineup and sitting in the dugout and being a cheerleader. Mr. Bradley, if you think he is the best manager you have ever seen, you may need to consider changing professions.
Don
August 17th, 2009
8:58 am
Forgot one thing in my post about our first four men in the game last night swinging at the first strike they saw. — The lead-off man in the game actually swung at a 2-0 pitch. How can the Braves keep this man as the manager???
Bobby Coccyx
August 17th, 2009
9:01 am
I am an idiot
O'Brien
August 17th, 2009
9:17 am
Mark,
Friday’s game was a prime example. How many balls did the Braves hit to the warning track? Quite a few, but we just dont have HR power (So much for Frank Wren’s “6 or 7 guys with 20 homers”. And you’re right. We were lucky to win one (if Brad Lidge doesnt melt in Saturday’s game, we would have been swept, scoring only 5 runs in 3 games).
Don,
I wont blame Bobby Cox for last night’s loss, but I think he should share some of the blame for Friday night. Why bring in your closer (who has been struggling) to face Howard, when he struggles against lefties (and he is 1-12 against Gonzo, 4 strikeouts).
That being said, these are the type of games in which every managerial decision/lack of execution will be magnified, and over the years, the Braves have lost quite a few big games like this. Let’s hope we can at least win the wild card.
thereishope
August 17th, 2009
9:28 am
And how much was Chipper given for the next three years? Yikes!
Angus
August 17th, 2009
9:29 am
Wow, Don – thanks for the enlightenment.
Thought I knew a thing or two about baseball – apparently I was all wrong. I honestly didn’t know pitches/ plate appearance ultimately defined managerial quality.
Now I know that, in order, Bruce Boche, Tony LaRussa, and Bobby Cox are the worst managers in the NL. The best, might you ask, Clint Hurdle/Jim Tracy, Manny Acta/Jim Riggleman, and Fredi Gonzalez.
Please, please, please teach us more.
NC BravesFan
August 17th, 2009
9:34 am
Hey Mark. Ryan Howard needs a full time Ball Polisher and after this article I think your his MAN! I wish you would take your Braves hating to another city. All you do is bash them, its a tired act.
7
August 17th, 2009
9:35 am
Nothing will every change with Bobby Cox as mgr.
abudefdef
August 17th, 2009
9:44 am
Blackberry Cobbler…look at Vzquez’s Ks and ERA…he’s doing his job to win games, the bats haven’t given him nearly enough support. He isn’t overrated, he is under-supported in the runs column. If the Braves had scored 4 or so runs in all his games, he would be in the Cy Young conversations EASILY…put blame where it is due, the offense, which has been offensive!
Evil Richt 2009 S.E.C. World Tour: "Banned in Columbus"
August 17th, 2009
9:48 am
GT is right. Why did the Braves pitch to Howard? Do any of the reporters covering the Braves want to do their jobs and ask?
ijudgenot
August 17th, 2009
9:53 am
Vasquez has been the Braves best pitcher this year hands down. He is a very good pitcher, but I don’t know if his body of work over the years match this year. He is not a great pitcher like Greg Maddox. Maddox would have intentionally threw 4 pitches off the plate to Howard with 2 men on base. It would not have gone down as an intentional walk but he would not have let Howard beat him in thar situation. He would have taken his chances with Worth and the bases loaded.
Angus
August 17th, 2009
9:57 am
You pitch to Howard because against ATL he’s got a career .233 BA and .267 OBP. Also, avg’s a HR per 14.6 AB’s (that’s an entire series).
Last series vs ATL he was 3 for 12 with no HR’s. Were you clamoring for ATL to walk him then?
Dude had a big series – it happens.
HoJo
August 17th, 2009
9:59 am
Folks the Phillies are just a vastly superior team. They have past or present all-stars at every position save Catcher and Third base. They have 3 CY Young winners in the rotation and probably another on the way in Happ. And Joe Blanton held us to 4 hits!!
The Phillies will have to seriously implode for them not to win this thing.
The Braves have a chance in the wild card race because of pitching but lets be real….they suck. We are HOPING that Prado, LaRoche, and Church are going to produce, but they need the other guys around them to hit as well and that just ain’t happening against good pitchers.
Chipper, Escobar, Anderson, and McClouth wouldn’t even start on the Phillies…only McCann would. Thats why even with Heyward and Freeman on the way, the Braves just aren’t going to be able to compete with the Phillies until they can land a couple of difference makers to offset the run producers on the Phillies. When Feliz is hitting 7th and he still has more RBI’s than our top guy, Escobar, its time to realize you have a problem bigger than one or two guys not hitting. The Braves are anemic offensivley and will just have to have luck to get to the playoffs and win anything. But then again its always better to be lucky than good.
abudefdef
August 17th, 2009
10:01 am
I would never compare Vazquez to Maddux, that’s for sure.
All I’m saying is that with his Ks and ERA, a few more runs per game puts Javier in the mix for Cy Young this year…but the offense has been offensive, as I said, and let him down time and again.
Mark Bradley
August 17th, 2009
10:02 am
Why pitch to Howard? First time up, he led off an inninng. Third time up, there were runners on first and second with one out. Walk him and afly ball scores the go-ahead run. And it isn’t as if the man never males an out. He’s hitting .260.
JASon
August 17th, 2009
10:06 am
The NL has some great teams battling it out right now, including the braves, phils and dodgers. Those rockies always play good this time of year too, so it should be an interesting race to see who gets it. Lets get those bats goin’ boys. Go braves.
Don
August 17th, 2009
10:10 am
All due respects, Angus; But if you do not understand the necissity for and importance of working the count and making the opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches, you need to be enlightened. (Enables your hitters to see what the pitcher has, adjust to the pitcher, get better pitches to hit, makes him make mistakes, wears the pitcher down both within innings and for the game, gets you into the teams weak middle relief etc.) In most games, it will have a significant effect on run production. Bobby Cox has never emphasized this. In the absence of teaching/emphisis/direction by the manager, most hitters are hacking away at the first pitch that is in the strike zone or sometimes not even in the strike zone. Bobby Cox’s lack of management has the Braves next to last in all of baseball in average number of pitches seen per at bat – which shows that this is not being taught/emphasized/demanded. The result is inconsistant run production and will mean failure for the season — unless you have a pitching staff so dominant and far superior to other teams (which the Braves had for years) that it will overcome this over the long 162 game regular season schedule.
abudefdef
August 17th, 2009
10:10 am
MB, with the youthfulness of Freeman and Heyward probably keeping them in the minors to start the year, do you see the Braves going after a big bopper next year, even if it’s to bridge the gap before our young prospects are major-league ready?
We have the starting pitching to spare…
Daniel
August 17th, 2009
10:14 am
Don- you don’t know anything about baseball. Please, quit trying to make yourself feel better by bashing a HOF manager, who certainly forgotten more about baseball than you will ever know.
It is fair to question moves that a manager makes, but you are over the line.
If you are still wondering, bashing Bobby will not make your appendage grow. sorry
Voz de razon
August 17th, 2009
10:21 am
Why. Why. WHY???
Why pitch to Ryan Howard???
I will never, ever be confused for a HOF manager, but even I wouldn’t have done that last night.
Disappointing series. Hope we fare better against the Marlins next weekend.
bvillebaron
August 17th, 2009
10:24 am
Alan Crowell:
I am as frustrated as you are with the offense this year, but it hasn’t been “horrible” particularly in key situations. If I recall correctly, team wise they are near the top in getting two out hits and driving in runs. A little objectivity in your posts please.
Voz de razon
August 17th, 2009
10:25 am
And Mark, you act as if the Braves have never gotten out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam before. I thought we were supposed to have the best pitching in the NL?
A fly ball scoring a solitary run is a heck of a lot better than giving up a 3-run shot to a home run champ who’s already hit 2 dingers in the series, both on the scoreboard and in the psyche of our team.
Don
August 17th, 2009
10:30 am
Daniel, Bobby Cox’s lack of management has the Braves next to last in all of baseball in average number of pitches seen per at bat. If you do not understand the devastating significance of this relating to gneratig offense and run production, then you have a rather limited understanding of the game.
Angus
August 17th, 2009
10:30 am
Don, I do understand the importance of working the count.
What I don’t understand is your assertion that pitches/plate appearance defines managerial quality.
Seriously, your statements suggest Bruce Boche, Tony LaRussa, and Bobby Cox are all bad managers because their teams see the least amount of pitches in the NL.
Can you stand behind that? Can you somehow distinguish between LaRussa and Cox on this?
Me, I think the Braves see fewer pitches than average because they have a below average lineup – regardless of who fills out the lineup card.
dcp
August 17th, 2009
10:32 am
Maybe Joe Simpson and Chip Caray can tell us again how many home runs the Braves would have hit if the game was at Citizens Bank Park? Geez, get over it guys. The games were not in Philadelphia. This was a good series and when people ask what the difference is between the two teams, the one that matters is 6 games – the Braves are 6 games back. Both teams pitched well – that is the Braves strength and the Phillies matched up there. The Phillies just have more of an ability to score big at any time. Walking Howard want not the issue as Mark pointed out – in both cases last night it was not warranted. Friday, however, made no sense, when Soriano is trotted out there to start the ninth and pitch to Howard. Howard is hitting under .200 against left handers – that was a bad move. Either leave Gonzalez in or let one of the other two lefties come in. Cox always feels that his team could have won any game – it was just that we got some bad breaks, never that another team played better or deserved to win.
Drummerdad
August 17th, 2009
10:41 am
Hit, pitch, catch, throw, run…with confidence. The Phillies are better at it right now than Atlanta. While the Braves were enjoying the last few years of that run to the 2005 bow out, Pat Gillick was building this Phillies team. John Schuerholz and Frank Wren were trying to figure out how to recapture the glory. The Texas Rangers are now enjoying the fruit of that effort. Just ask the Red Sox. (Elvis A. has 23 stolen bases this year.)
Chipper looks to have played injured all year and any contribution he can make should be viewed as icing on the cake instead of looking at him as the “go to guy”. BMac is taking on the leadership mantle, but seems to be weighed down by it right now. The financial moves that Time Warner put on this team obviously changed things considerably. But not many of us realized the amount of time it takes to rebuild after that. Think about the how the Yankees would do if the Steinbrenners decided that the team was going to live off of 80 MIL per season in this day.
Nilo Silvan
August 17th, 2009
10:52 am
Dumbfound, to answer your question—
Ryan Howard was called up when he was 24 years old, almost 25. Heyward just turned 20.
Reid Adair
August 17th, 2009
10:56 am
Bobby Cox is right. The Braves “could’ve” won all three games. In reality, they didn’t win any. The Phillies GAVE Saturday’s game away. If not for Brad Lidge’s double error, Philadelphis most likely would have swept the series.
This was an important series, and the Braves didn’t come through. While the pitching was OK (other than the hanging change to Ryan Howard), the offense was once again non-existent.
Smart Jay
August 17th, 2009
10:59 am
Lose a series, and….
Ya know, Don, different pitchers sometimes lead to different approaches. Against Happ, the Bravos may have been looking for something early in the count. I used to complaint that no one ever took a pitch on this team, but, with Prado, Church, McClouth in the line-up more, they’re getting better looks. You can’t always go to the plate and give the guy strike 1.
Friday I was in the car and hated the move and hate it now still. Bobby’s done some stuff differently this year with the pen, but this situation did call for either Moylan to keep the ball down (in a tie game) or a lefty. Since it was tied, Moylan made more sense to me, rather than use multiple pitchers in what could have been extra innings.
As for McCann, the guy needs a rest. I don’t know why Bobby, with a good running team, and two lefties starting back-to-back, Ross doesn’t get a start, and it should have been Saturday during the afternoon game.
That one is just hard to figure out, except that McCann had great numbers against Hamels, and he did hit the HR, so, then, he should have gotten a night off Sunday…I’m guessing today Ross is in the lineup.
Brian
August 17th, 2009
11:07 am
Don, you’re hilarious in your obsession. You are correct that seeing more pitches is usually a good thing. You’re way off base in thinking Bobby Cox or any other MLB manager has much at all to do with whether players do this or not.
PMC
August 17th, 2009
11:16 am
Escobar LEADS the braves with 60 RBI’s in late AUGUST! Say that outloud. It’s still not the pitching even with the bad last few games for Soriano…. This team can’t score runs consistantly… it’s just not a playoff team.. IF they win 83-85 games though… they’ve made substantial progress. They have become a younger better overall team this year but just comparing lineups… they aren’t good enough to compete with the Phillies… or the Mets if they are healthy and they don’t even hit as well as the Marlins. They will get better It will just take at least another off season.
PMC
August 17th, 2009
11:18 am
They can get the heck out of runners on base. They just have no power whatsoever. Not enough extra base hits in that lineup. Not just homeruns… Doubles and triples.
southbeachdietfreak
August 17th, 2009
11:24 am
Didn’t get to see the game last night because my dish had issues (Thanks, DirecTV), but sounds like the series was a clinick on why the two teams are where they are….
The Phillies came through in clutch situations and the Braves didn’t. The Phil’s matched the Braves pitcher for pitcher
I think everyone can agree the Braves are better than last year. however, they’re still a year or two away from the playoffs. They’ve got to make improvements in their lineup and get someone in the middle who strikes fear into the heart of opposing pitchers. That being said, the rotation is solid, and don’t give up on Soriano. I like the Braves’ pitching situation. They’ll be back in ‘10 and I think win the Wild Card.
kindergarden math
August 17th, 2009
11:40 am
Don: While I agree with other posters that you cannot judge overall managerial ability soley on the number of opponent’s pitches seen in a game , I agree that the Braves do seem to fail to appreciate the advantages of working pitchcounts in order to manufacture runs, tire the defense and in order to get to the opponent’s bullpen earlier in the game. However ,I disagree with your blanket condemnation of swinging at a 2-0 pitch. Ted Williams, who I suggest knew more about hitting than both of us combined will ever know, wrote in his book that often the best pitch you will see as a batter is a 2-0 fastball over the plate delivered by a pitcher who does not want to fall behind to a 3-0 count. He would be guessing fastball in the strike zone where he wanted it. If it was there, he swung (most often, succesfully). If the pitch was not a fastball in the area he was guessing, then he took the pitch. I am always dumbfounded when I watch an allegedly professional baseball player stand at the plate and watch a fastball grooved down the middle of the plate on a 2-0 count while his bat is on his shoulder. I agree you should work the count, but not at the expense of watching the best pitch you will see in the at-bat plop into the catcher’s mitt. I sometimes wonder if any of these guys have actually read Ted’s book. I received it as Christmas present as a high school baseball player over 35 years ago, and I heartily recommend it to anyone who plays or loves the game. I believe it was called “The Art of Hittting” . I don’t know if it is still in print, but the Braves should try to find a copy and pass it around. I don’t care who your hitting coach is, this book should be passed around on the plane while they are flying between cities.
David Granger
August 17th, 2009
11:44 am
Seems like there’s always one player who just absolutely KILLS the Braves…dating all the way back to Willie Stargell.
Apropos of nothing in particular, Ryan Howard shows how bad luck can really affect a player’s career. He was a major-league caliber hitter just as soon as he laced up his cleats in the minors, but never could get called up because the Phillies had Jim Thome at first. When Howard finally got to play, he was Rookie of the Year…and was almost 26. He’ll end up losing probably five seasons because of that, and will still probably turn in a borderline “Hall of Fame” type career. (Though…as Bill James pointed out…it’s the big strong guys like Howard who hit the most home runs in their 20’s, but the lean “athlete” types…like Hank Aaron…who hit the most in their 30’s.) Like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn, you can eventually get TOO fat even to hit, so he’ll have to be careful. I like Ryan Howard…but I sure wish he’d take a day or two off against us now and again.
Train Wreck Bystander
August 17th, 2009
11:48 am
It’s too early to concede the division title. Yeah, this weekend hurt – but anything can happen in the next month and a half. That’s why they play the games.instead of using a Strat-o-matic board to seed the postseason.
I do not concede the division title to the Phils and I hope our Braves will not, either.
Ralph
August 17th, 2009
11:48 am
Mark your absolutely right and thats the way its gonna be until the owners decide they want to be a winner instead of a pretender and open up the ole wallet. You can’t get those type players unless you are willing to expand your payroll so face it we will just be hopeful’s until we have different owners.
LSU
August 17th, 2009
11:49 am
Mark,
By losing 2 of 3 to the Phillies, it looks like the Braves are just not good enough..Reality sucks. You have to be able to score runs against the good teams…Next season won’t be any different, unfortunately.
Don
August 17th, 2009
11:54 am
Brian, your contention that the manager can have nothing to do with this is absurd.
Ralph
August 17th, 2009
12:07 pm
Daniel, Bobby Cox has also forgotten more about baseball than Bobboy Cox will ever know again, he has forgotten everything, period.
TomB
August 17th, 2009
12:13 pm
Why pitch to him? At the very least, he should have pitched around him making sure Howard wasn’t thrown a pitch to handle.Vazquez made a mistake.He made the right pitches to Utley and Werth.The Phillies have a powerful line-up, but Howard is the one player who can carry a team.Baseball is a game of matchups and momentum. Howard was obviously the hot hitter in this series seeing the ball extremely well.Stay away from him and take a chance on the sacrifice fly the next bat.
Ralph
August 17th, 2009
12:17 pm
Disable McLouth and bring up Haywood, what could we lose.
BravesFan79
August 17th, 2009
12:18 pm
Like i said Friday…. we needed Colorado to loose MUCH more than we needed the Marlins to loose! ! And because they won were still only 3.5 games out of the wildcard.
Wheres Brian and the rest of the people that said they hoped the Rockies swept Fl?? Face it… you now know i was right the entire time. The Phillies will finish the season at least 18-20 games over .500 and hopefully the Rockies will be closer to 10 games over .500 I cant believe even the stupid announcer for the Braves said during the game he hoped Colorado would beat Florida because “we need to focus on the divistion” LOL ….right…. Well thankfully the Marlins pulled it out, and we still got a chance!
Chris
August 17th, 2009
12:22 pm
They keep stringing us along, but they’ve been done for awhile. I can’t remember the confidence I had that they would go out and win a series they needed to. They won against LA, but I never thought they could. The lineup just doesn’t inspire confidence.
Look, your leading RBI guy will be lucky to hit 80, you probably won’t have a single 20 HR guy, and you probably won’t have a 15-game winner or a 25-game closer.
That’s mediocre, people.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 17th, 2009
12:24 pm
Vazquez made a mistake; it happens and good hitters make you pay. That’s life in the big leagues.
The Phillies still look a bit shaky to me and I’d still be keeping my eye on the Fish (I’ve been saying this for a while and I’m either going to be right or go down with the ship).
The weakness I see with the Braves is an inability to adjust to their situation. If you don’t have big boppers or people aren’t hitting, you have to manufacture runs and they have a hard time doing that.
I always thought Billy Martin’s strength (granted he had a bushel basket full of weaknesses) as a manager was that he could adjust his managing style to fit whatever strengths his players had.
BravesFan79
August 17th, 2009
12:25 pm
Face it people, the Phillies are no longer our biggest competition this season. The Rockies, San Fran, and FL are our biggest competition for the postseason. We especially need to root for anyone playing against San Fran/ Colorado. Even if that team is the Phillies or Marlins.
dcp
August 17th, 2009
12:33 pm
Hillbilly – really – the Phillies look shaky? Where? Their starting pitching is now very good, their defense is good, they have power and speed – they do have a problem with their closer, but that’s their only significant issue. What do you consider shaky? Florida is a good team, if that is your main point. They do throw a good starter at you almost every night, and Johnson helps their lineup, which frankly was unremarkable for a while there. The Phillies on balance are still the best team in the East and likely the NL.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 17th, 2009
12:41 pm
Dcp
They gave away the Saturday game and although he pitched well last night, Brad Lidge is very shaky this year. They have had a tendency to be streaky. I didn’t say they weren’t a good team but I think they can be overtaken. I would also disagree that the Phillies are the best team in the NL; I think the Cardinals are better over the long haul. And I do think the Marlins are a good team; I think they have the ability to overtake the Phillies. Whether or not they do remains to be seen.
The Lemmer
August 17th, 2009
12:48 pm
Chris is dead on. Without at least one 30+ homer guy, the Bravos are toast. I’ll always be a proponent of great pitching, especially in Turner Field. The starters have not been bad at all most of the year, but when they get absolutely no run support the team has no chance.
Look back at the “glory days” of 90s…..at least there was a Justice, McGriff, or Galaraga around to drive in some runs.
AppalachiaBrave
August 17th, 2009
12:52 pm
This weekend just didn’t work out for the Braves…Better luck next series. The Braves still have an awesome rotation right now. We just need more hitting, maybe it will come around. Chipper is suddenly looking old. Maybe he needs a stint on the DL? Its time to bring Hayward up, what could it hurt? No crying in baseball, lets start another winning streak!! GO BRAVES, kick some butts!!
The Lemmer
August 17th, 2009
1:03 pm
Mark, what are your thoughts on Heyward? Any big name sluggers gonna be free-agents next year, and does Wren have a chance at signing one?
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
August 17th, 2009
1:20 pm
Braves are done……and I’ll keep saying it till they bring home the title. It is time to bring up Heyward. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
gayle
August 17th, 2009
1:37 pm
Booby says the Braves should have could have would have won all three games? The reality is that only Lidge’s errors kept the Phillies from the sweep.
One more time Braves’ fans, this is a .500 team and no play in October and it will stay that way as long as that relic stays in the dugout.
Dave
August 17th, 2009
1:37 pm
The Phillies won two of three this past weekend, and each game was close. A pitch here, a hit there and the Braves could have swept.
LAST YEAR, the Phillies wins each game by 5 or more runs, and the games would have been over by the 6th inning.
The Braves this year are a LOT better than last year, and the Phillies are NOT the same team that won the World Series last year.
First, the consistent hitting is not there. Sure, they have power to burn, and Ryan Howard may be the MVP, but if he is the only one hitting cnsistently, the smart teams will pitch around him. That’s how the Angels won their World Series, by refusing to let Barry Bonds beat them in 2003. The Braves’ pitching have handled both Rollins and Victorino so far this year. If they continue to do so, a Braves sweep in one of the upcoming Phillies series is NOT out of the question.
Second, while the starting pitching has improved with the addition of Lee, I am NOT convinced that Pedro Martinez is the answer. Hamels is NOT the pitcher he was last year, Blanton is a .500 pitcher, and Happ walks too many people. As for the relief pitching, if I were Chalire Manuel, I would NOT be sleeping well if my job depended on Brad Lidge NOT blowing saves. This guy is a post-season meltdown waiting to happen.
I said it in Dave O’Brien’s blog: If the Phillies play up to their talent, they win the division by TEN games. However, they also have it in them to have a Mets-like meltdown and LOSE 15 of 18 at the end of the year and give either the Braves or the Marlins a chance to sneak in and win the division.
nique
August 17th, 2009
1:41 pm
should’ve signed dunn
Voz de razon
August 17th, 2009
1:44 pm
Anyone notice this?
Jeff Francoeur: 2 RBIs and only 1 HR in his LAST 13 GAMES, after 19 RBI’s and 4 HRs in his first 19 games.
Yikes.
Any bets on whether Jeff is a Met next year???
Brian
August 17th, 2009
2:09 pm
Voz de razon, I think Francoeur will be a Met next year, just because he’ll fill a hole for them in RF, and they probably won’t have the money to go after a slugger to fill it. They will bank on him improving, and they will probably pay dearly for it.
NRBQ
August 17th, 2009
2:13 pm
Yes, you gotta give Bobby his due.
What other manager could lose 9 pennants and four World Series in 14 years?
Braves Fan Since "80
August 17th, 2009
2:22 pm
I am a huge fan and I have not given up hope but the reality is we got great pitching a good bull pen and a minor leauge offense….. LaRoche and McCann are the only two batters that might hit home runs with each plate appearance…. Chipper is no three hole hitter any more, could be injury
If the Braves were capable of scoring runs Vasquez may have pitched differently to the big man…… Our season was last year but we wasted it on Glavine and Smoltz…. two dependable arms and Tex would have made us forget about Nefali and next year we will still be scrambling for speed and power….teams win with speed and or power…the braves have neither….. I am thrilled to see the chase but do not see more than hope the next two years, by then piching will be gone….. This offseason we need a big bat at first and left a better bat at right and 3rd base or more speed at 2nd center, right left……. We are now good enough to suffer
NeNe's Greg's boss
August 17th, 2009
2:25 pm
That’s why they are the champs.
NeNe's Greg's boss
August 17th, 2009
2:25 pm
The Champs
GT
August 17th, 2009
2:35 pm
The Phils have the best defensive outfield I have seen in years. The Braves had some hits stolen, and that infield is not bad either. Talk all you want to about the homeruns but the defense was the real hero of this series.
Tyger
August 17th, 2009
3:33 pm
The Atlanta Crackers just cant get it done…
A team full of scrappy white boys might be a very good storyline about a 1950’s ball club playing in the middle of big peach field, but it wont win you many big games. You’ll get lucky here and there, but not enough big kahunas.
We need Barry Bonds!!!!
TheAntiMe
August 17th, 2009
4:20 pm
Javy has been good – but damn – he should have known better. Even I said to my own ignorant self as Howard was stepping in for that AB, “I have a very bad feeling about this.”
Michael
August 17th, 2009
4:54 pm
The Braves won’t have a slugger with this pitching staff because they won’t pony up the money for a proven slugger. They had one (Teixeira) and let him go. Whether Andruw Jones would’ve kept hitting had he stayed in Atlanta is another question, but he was the last slugger who stayed here for a bit. Chipper isn’t getting any younger, so you can’t count on him being Ryan Howard. Adam LaRoche’s extra 3 homers per year isn’t going to make the difference over Kotchmann.
I would be wary of hoping that Heyward is the big bopper of the future. Despite the recent success of guys going from AA to the majors, that’s still a rarity. The Braves definitely need either a 1B or LF/RF who can hit 30/year.
dcp
August 17th, 2009
4:55 pm
Dave you are so far off on your evaluation. Wins and Losses are what counts – that is the game. A hit there, a pitch there – c’mon – anyone can say that about any game. How about remembering how the Braves scored their runs – Friday – an error leads to the first run. Saturday – 3 errors lead to 2 late runs. Yes, they could have swept or could have been swept, in the end the Phillies took 2 of 3. The Phillies are 4 1/2 ahead of FL and 6 in front of ATL. That is all that matters. We can all sit here and act like we know who is “looking better” or “hitting consistently”. The Braves have made great strides – enjoy the progress. They need a power bat. I would not worry about 5th starters as an argument for how they will overtake the division from the Phillies. Lee is a good pitcher, Hamels has not pitched like in the playoffs but not many people have ever gone 4 and 0 – he is still young. Happ’s walks last night were an aberration – he does not walk too many guys. If you want to talk stats did you not listen to how he is #1 in not letting runners in scoring position score – #1. He has 47 wlak in 130 innings. Blanton throws strikes – he pitches to contact, which is the reason Moyer was pushed aside – trying to paint corners does not get it done. Martinez does not have to do much as a #5 other than show up and give you 6 innings like Kawakami. The Braves are not overtaking the Phillies. There is zero chance of the Phillies losing 15 of 18 down the stretch. Zero. I have no douby the Braves could beat them in their 2 series, but to think the Phillies will collapse is very far fetched.
eww
August 17th, 2009
5:59 pm
whenever big Ryan’s next contract comes up we should pay him $50 million a year to have him on our team. This guy just kills us.
Why do we ever throw him anything near a strike?
Ashley
August 17th, 2009
6:26 pm
Eww,
If we did that, it’d be the year of a slumping Ryan.
Ozzie
August 17th, 2009
7:16 pm
It came down to KK or Dunn and he chose KK. Bad bet on Wren’s part which he made even worse by not trading KJ during the off-season (after his hot Sept 08) and not releasing Jeff.
Ozzie
August 17th, 2009
7:35 pm
P.S. While McLouth is a nice addition he is not a difference maker with the bat – at the level this team needs.
Nor is it practical to believe Heyward will waltz in here next spring, hit 4th and drive in 35-40 hrs.
Chipper looks done as a HR hitter.
McCann is too spent by the summer to be a 4 hole guy.
GA is leaving and he should.
Church is a 4th OF.
Diaz is a 4th OF.
Schafer is a light hitting defensive CF who will spend most of next summer in AAA or get traded.
With the signing of McLouth there is no room on this team for Schafer given the dearth of power.
I know folks drool over an OF of Schafer, McLouth and Heyward but that would be a yawn fest for most quality pitchers.
Heyward will eventually scare many pitchers but not day one. Let’s be realistic. McLouth will be pesky but he is not a 30HR threat.
The Braves MUST sign Holiday or Bay for LF, keep McLouth in CF and hope Heyward is ready no later than June 2010.
If not then 2010 will be a repeat of 2009 perhaps worse since Chipper, KK and Lowe will be yet another year removed from their primes.
We may also see Vaz traded away to make payroll room for Hudson.
FlaReptile
August 17th, 2009
8:43 pm
Face it this team needs to finally add some speed to the lineup. The Phils have power but they also have speed and that makes a big difference. The batters in the braves line up are too similar, not a lot of power and cannot take an extra base on a single or double.
Glenn
August 17th, 2009
9:45 pm
The reason that McCann is having trouble with lefthand pitchers is that wearing glasses he does not have the same field of vision. Will also cause him to widen his strike zone. Would not effect him as much with righthanders. He is having to strain to see the ball leave the pitcher’s hand. If he will open his stance when he is facing lefthanded pitchers then he will be better able to see the ball leave the pitcher’s hand.
Coach (2010 or Bust)
August 18th, 2009
12:30 am
With 62 wins and 72 quality starts from the rotation……..the damage has already been done. That said, our Braves are playing .620 baseball since July 1st and on pace to win 88-89 games.
They are gonna miss the playoffs by the thinnest of margins and break our hearts.
Live from the Branch: But first, a tale of keys and Krystal | Mark Bradley
August 18th, 2009
11:48 am
[...] some might recall a discussion of food, and the lack thereof. Well, by the time I posted my last post and left the ballpark — around 1:40 a.m. — I was starved. So I got in the car and [...]
zorba
August 19th, 2009
1:10 pm
Mark, as least Schultz is commenting some on Cox’s managerial decisions. When will you weigh in. Pretend you are a New York sportswriter, instead of an Atlanta “homey”.