Another Philadelphia story: There’s a massive series afoot
The key play of the last meeting: Gonzalez tags out Werth. (AJC photo by Elissa Eubanks)
Taking a break from the burning question — will Michael Vick someday start ahead of Donovan McNabb? — we turn to a more pressing matter:
Joe Blanton is starting for a Philadelphia team tonight at Turner Field. Then Cole Hamels tomorrow. Then J.A. Happ on Sunday. The Braves need to beat at least two of those three. (The Braves will go with Jair Jurrjens, then Kenshin Kawakami, then Javier Vazquez. Advantage: Braves.)
The Braves are hot. They’ve won five in a row. (Put another way, they’re unbeaten since Andre Ethier’s home run.) The Phillies are hot again, too. They swept the Cubs in Wrigley. They’re five games ahead of the Braves, which might not mean all that much.
Because, when last the Phillies came here, they led by five games on arrival and two on departure. The Braves swept them in Martin Prado’s breakout series. That was in July, and we around here got all excited for about 15 minutes. Then the Braves went to Washington and lost two of three and the Phils went home and got going again and the NL East seemed all but settled.
A month later, it’s again unsettled. If we know nothing else about the Phillies, it’s that they can blow cold without provocation. They’d lost eight of 11 before going to Chicago. They’ve bolstered their pitching by adding Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, neither of whom has yet lost as a Phil, but nothing about that team suggests it’s unbeatable.
Loading ...Especially not its performance against the Braves. The Phils have lost seven of nine this season to Atlanta, which is a key reason the Braves still have a chance to make the playoffs. The Braves can handle the Phils because they can outpitch them, and that’s what figures to happen again this weekend.
Braves take two of three. Phils leave four games in front. Braves stay in the chase.
OK, I lied: Not about the Braves winning the series, but about me being there for Game 1 tonight. After consultation with higher-ups at the ol’ AJC, the decision was made that I should write about Michael Vick for Saturday’s paper.
Previously the plan was for me to write about Game 1 of the Braves-Phillies and to write for Monday off Vick’s “60 Minutes” appearance Sunday night. Now, since Vick’s Eagles introduction today has essentially rendered “60 Minutes” a moot point, we’ve flipped topics: Vick for tomorrow, Game 3 of Braves-Phils for Monday.
I apologize for misleading you in an earlier post, and I hope you understand that, in this ever-changing world in which we live in (as Sir Paul McCartney, who’ll be in town tomorrow, once had it), sometimes you’ve got to call the audible.
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123 comments Add your comment
Roy Hobbs
August 14th, 2009
12:13 pm
Neftali looked pretty awesome last night.
Bama Aaron
August 14th, 2009
12:14 pm
I think if our pitching stays consistent we’ve got a reasonable shot at 2 out of 3. With a little luck a sweep. The wildcard being which Kawakami shows up for game two. As well as can our hitting stay hot. We need Chipper to start hitting more like the old Chipper and we need McCann to break out of his slump.
Also I think the quirk in the schedule that gave us 2 off days in the same week may help the overworked pen be sharper than they might normally have been.
Jptuba
August 14th, 2009
12:17 pm
Here’s hoping for a Braves sweep! Roy, you forgot to say “first!”.
Paul H
August 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
The Braves are determined to get this done. They know they have a legitimate shot at October after the season seemed dead. They’ve got a win streak. They’ve got confidence. They’ve got motivation. In other words, they have things they haven’t had the last 3 Augusts.
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
Yea the pen will be sharper, McCann always rakes against the Phils, and KK has a good shot at winning tomorrow because Cole Hamles is not the same as he was last year, same for Lidge, so there is major chance we can sweep if we stay hot..though I did note that we take 2
Mark Bradley
August 14th, 2009
12:22 pm
There does seem a difference about this team, by way of contrast to those in 2006 and 2007. (Last year doesn’t really count.)
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:25 pm
Mark, What’s the weather looking like for tonight’s game?
Dark Helmet
August 14th, 2009
12:25 pm
It’s frustrating that Cox didn’t rearrange the rotation to throw Jurrjens, Vazquez, and Hanson…
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:28 pm
I wouldn’t have minded that either, but I’m confident in KK, this guy is a professional and he’s used to winning, so he knows what it takes and he knows he has alot to prove to people, so here’s hoping he comes through in the clutch for us
MiltonDawg
August 14th, 2009
12:32 pm
This series will tell us all we need to know about the remaining games in August & September. IF we can handle the Phils like we did last time they were town..we’re in good shape. Got to stay consistent and win the series. Anybody know if McLouth is coming back tonight??
JPhillies
August 14th, 2009
12:41 pm
Advantage Braves?? yea, ok..lol
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:43 pm
hey even ESPN is putting braves with the advantage…wow I never thought I’d say that about those braves haters!
MC
August 14th, 2009
12:48 pm
Dark Helmet, Kawakami has stepped up in big situations all year. He’s coming off a 7IP, 4H, 0R performance against a very good Dodger lineup, and he will be pitching on an extra day of rest. I’m looking forward to another gutsy performance from Kenshin!
Mark Bradley
August 14th, 2009
12:50 pm
Partly cloud, high 80s during the day. And I’m Jim Cantore for the Weather Channel.
ThaMan
August 14th, 2009
12:51 pm
JEZ – Tonight’s forecast is dark, with continued darkness throughout the night, seeing cases of scattered light first thing in the morning.
TMAC
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
hey JPhillies, good luck with that sorry excuse for a QB… and by the way, the Phillies suck too.
dcp
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
Ok folks, relax. The pitching is a lot more even than you portray it to be. The Phillies ERA over the past 60 days has been the best in baseball. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ are all quality pitchers every bit as good as Vazquez (who everyone here wanted to trade), Lowe, Hanson, and Jair. The hitting is about different styles. The braves piece together rallies with singles and doubles, while the Phillies just need one bad pitch and it’s over the fence by any one of 6 of their starting lineup. These two teams are both different than 30 days ago, but you said it yourself, both are 26-14 over the same span of games so there is no decided advantage – what matters is the rest of the year. This should be a great series – hope the fans come out and support the team.
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
thanks for the sarcasm from all
Brian
August 14th, 2009
12:59 pm
Despite their recent hot streak, the Braves still have a tall task in front of them. The Phillies, Marlins, and Rockies all won again yesterday. Nobody is folding. The Braves are going to have to stay very hot the rest of the year. Take two out of three, and they’re still four games back, like you said. It’s gonna take some stretch of 8 or 9 straight wins or 15 of 16 at some point to get on top of these races.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:07 pm
This series is big, not because i think we can end up with more wins than Philly (i doubt it), but because i think our more realistic goal is the wildcard.
We need to be rooting against Colorado and San Fran every game they play! Here’s hoping the Marlins sweep the Rockies! Yes i know FL is infront of us, but i firmly believe that regardless, we can catch and pass them. But we have little control over what the Rockies/ Giants do. We cant afford for the Rockies to get much more than 10 games over .500 for us to have a chance.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:16 pm
BravesFan79, I agree with your reasoning, but come to the opposite conclusion. It is precisely because we play the Phillies and Marlins a lot the rest of the year that a division title remains more likely than a wild card berth. Fewer teams to jump, and we don’t have any control over what the Rockies and Giants do. I personally think they will keep winning. If we play .650 ball against the division the rest of the way, we’ll win it. But there’d still be a strong chance we’d be behind those two West teams.
Wayn-o
August 14th, 2009
1:21 pm
They should focus on the division not the wild card. It allows for the braves to be in control with so many games against the Fish & Phils. we don’t play the wild card teams (if so not enough) to be in control of our own destiny. it leaves it up to scoreboard watching.
AppalachiaBrave
August 14th, 2009
1:21 pm
Why not sign Smoltz for some bullpen help?? He would make a great closer again!?
hawkfan
August 14th, 2009
1:29 pm
Dont normally blog braves articles … but just felt like wishing the braves good luck!
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:29 pm
Here’s a testament to the Braves’ current pitching staff: of the pitchers currently on the 25-man roster, only Kris Medlen’s ERA is above the league average, which is 4.48 (Medlen’s is only slightly above, at 4.50). Kawakami’s is second-highest at 4.12, but that is an above-average ERA. The Braves are the only team in baseball that has zero pitchers (at least 29 IP) with an ERA over 4.50. No one has more pitchers under 4.50 (12), and no one has more pitchers under 4.00 (9).
The point is…they may not be headlined with dominant Cy Young winners these days, but the 2009 Braves have an excellent, and very, very deep, pitching staff.
Mitchell
August 14th, 2009
1:31 pm
As nervous as I am about KK on Saturday, I’m more nervous about JJ tonight.
He needs to have a good game. He can’t let them get to him. He is known to bend but not break but more recently it’s been bend but not break, then an inning later… break.
I just hope we can get some runs for him.
I mean, you can’t just expect us to sweep the series again. We can, but we’re still pretty vulnerable. We need good pitching and good defense. They have to play tough.
And hopefully we have good umps for this one who don’t do fist-bumps or throw people out of the game on a whim.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:31 pm
I agree…. resign Smoltz before someone else does!
Brian: so does that mean your rooting for the Marlins to sweep the Rockies? if so….terrible idea…. the Marlins are nothing but a pawn that we can jump past any time weather it be in the division race (if both teams passed the Phillies which i seriously doubt), or in the wild card race. In fact id LOVE to see the Marlins tied for the wild card lead because that would mean all 4 teams (rockies, giants, braves, marlins) would be bunched up within 2 games of each other. Therefore giving the Braves a better shot.
If the Rockies get to 20 games over .500 we have little to no shot at making the playoffs. Unless the Phillies TOTALLY collapse… which i seriously doubt will happen.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:38 pm
I mean to say… rooting for the Rockies to sweep the Marlins.
Personally im hoping the Fish sweep em…. im more worried about the Rockies being a obstacle to us getting to the playoffs than i am the Fish.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:39 pm
Bravesfan79, no, I’m rooting for the Braves to win their games, not the Marlins or Rockies or anyone else. If we do, we’ll make the playoffs, probably as the division winner. To more directly answer your question, no, I would rather the Rockies sweep the Marlins, but that doesn’t matter unless we sweep the Marlins (or at least win a lot) too. Can’t sweep the Rockies or Giants any more. Put it this way: to get to 90 wins, we’d have to go 30-18 the rest of the way. It is likely that we would be beating the Phillies and Marlins a lot if we did that. We’d have to count on the Rockies to 25-22 AT BEST the rest of the way, with no influence from us.
jeffrey d
August 14th, 2009
1:40 pm
Did somebody really ask Mark what the weather was going to be like?
Mark, what’s the traffic on 85 going to be like? Do you think it’s time for a haircut? Can you come fix my satellite dish?
Ohman
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
Just don’t anyone throw beer on Shane Victorino. He don’t like that.
Bama Aaron
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
Agree BF79.. I’ll be rooting for the fish to sweep the Rockies. We can take of the fish the next time we play them, but we need help bringing those west coast teams down!
Chief
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
JEFF FRANCOUER HAS JUST BEEN TRADED!
Chief
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
FIRST?
91AtlantaBraves
August 14th, 2009
1:43 pm
how many tickets have been sold for tonights game? weekend series?
We need to pack da house..
RobertNAtl
August 14th, 2009
1:46 pm
Which route provides us a better chance to make the playoffs: (a) win the wild-card race or (b) win the NL East. Three weeks ago I thought our only shot to make the playoffs was the wild-card route, but today I am about convinced our only shot is to overtake the Phillies and win the NL East. Which makes this series all the more crucial.
And to add to the list of questions for Mark, the all-purpose guru: Your take on health-care reform, please. (After your answers on weather, traffic, haircuts, and satellite dishes.)
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:48 pm
91AtlantaBraves, I would think all three games should be near sell-outs. Hopefully that will help the Braves.
As far as the division/wild card debate goes: Baseball Prospectus has a cool page updated daily that shows postseason odds for all teams. They simulate the rest of the season a million times and show the percentage of time each team makes the playoffs. They give us odds of about 22% to win the division and 7.5% to win the wild card. And the reason is because we play the teams ahead of us in the division so many times. Bottom line is, doesn’t matter who we root for from our couch…if the Braves win 30-35 games the rest of the way, they’ve got a good shot at the playoffs.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:48 pm
JPhillies, yeah the Braves have the advantage, we have crushed you guys all season long. We would have only been four games out if it weren’t for the third game of the first series this year. Other then that game you guys have trouble beating the Braves and you guys are only in first by a miracle.
mudcat
August 14th, 2009
1:51 pm
Don’t count on the Rockies fading. 2/3 of their games in September are at home, and most of the teams are sub .500 teams. The Braves have one shot. First, when Hudson comes back, go with a six man rotation to ensure keeping our starters fresh for the final push. Second, supplement the pen with a couple of young arms, starting on Sept. 1 when we can bring up some guys for our system. Lastly, bring up Heyward and Freeman. They’ve been hitting the ball solid all season and they’ve earned this and they’ll probably help our offense. Lastly, don’t let Norton get close to a bat the rest of the year.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:52 pm
I don’t know why you rather have our division rival sweep the Rockies Bravesfan79, you should rather hope that the Marlins get swept so we are in second by a few games. We need to take first and not worried about the wildcard, personally I think the wildcard is a joke to make the losers of the divisons feel better and it should be first place only.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:53 pm
I am more concerned of the teams above us in our division than of the wildcard, because we want the divison title over the wildcard.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
Brian: you seriously think the Phillies are more likely to have a .500 record the rest of the season than the Rockies? face it…. we need the Rockies / Giants to loose all the games possible… their our biggest obstacle to the playoffs. I just cant picture the Phillies being any less than 20 games over .500 by the time the season is over with. While i picture the wild card leader being hopefully closer to 10 games over .500
skeezix
August 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
After that great series in LA, this series is probably the most critical one of the season. I hope we get excellent umpires – we don’t need another crook like Hohn – so when its over, we don’t feel cheated again like after the series in Boston and Fla. Those series cost us two games – two games due to an inept or unethical umpire with an axe to grind. Bobby has really brought this team along; the offense has been a huge surprise. So I think they can win this series. We are running all cylinders (so are tghe Phils) and well rested. Now if only Chipper and Brian would pick it up offensively a bit…… it could be the most fun of the season!
Kashi
August 14th, 2009
1:59 pm
I say we will get 1/3. Phillies are different team then we met in July. Guys have come back from injuries and it is a different line up. Nothing to take it easy. It is the preview of playoff series. Go Braves!
Jfreak
August 14th, 2009
2:05 pm
I see them losing two out of three. All three games very close but bullpen does us in. Two low scoring games (1 and 3) One High scoring game (game 2: Phillies 7 Braves 3) We win game three and keep pace in the wild card hunt. This series may determine the division but the wild card still in reach if we get at least one win. I think our pitching will keep pace with the Giants and maybe just maybe we can steal the wild card?
DawginLex
August 14th, 2009
2:05 pm
Why does anyone want the Marlins to keep winning. They are in the Braves division. Let them lose all the games to colorado. The Braves need to sweep the Phils and eventually pass them and win the division.
None of this let’s play for the wild card crap. If you are first, you don’t need help from anybody else.
Michael
August 14th, 2009
2:06 pm
Thank you for talking about the only Atlanta-Philly story that matters today. Save the Vick crap for another day.
trey
August 14th, 2009
2:06 pm
We need to compete for first place not that bull wildcard. I want the Rockies to beat the Marlins so we will be in second in the division.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:07 pm
I think the division is with in reach only if the Braves can at least take 2 of 3 from Phillie. Like (bravefan79) said, we should also worry about Colorado & the Giants. But I can’t even imagine rooting for Florida for any reason ever. What if we do over take Philly only to lose the division to Florida. Forget about the wild card. We have our destiny in our own hands right now. As long as we keep it real close with Phillie, even if we lose the division, we can have a legitimate chance at the wild card. So pass up Florida with this series if Colorado beats up on Florida & maybe we can get 2 of 3, maybe even a sweep of the Phillies. The braves can not……..I REPEAT, can not worry about the wild card. Lets win this division. It is defiantly within our reach.
trey
August 14th, 2009
2:08 pm
Thank you DawginLex, at least you think we should want our own division opponents to lose.