Another Philadelphia story: There’s a massive series afoot
The key play of the last meeting: Gonzalez tags out Werth. (AJC photo by Elissa Eubanks)
Taking a break from the burning question — will Michael Vick someday start ahead of Donovan McNabb? — we turn to a more pressing matter:
Joe Blanton is starting for a Philadelphia team tonight at Turner Field. Then Cole Hamels tomorrow. Then J.A. Happ on Sunday. The Braves need to beat at least two of those three. (The Braves will go with Jair Jurrjens, then Kenshin Kawakami, then Javier Vazquez. Advantage: Braves.)
The Braves are hot. They’ve won five in a row. (Put another way, they’re unbeaten since Andre Ethier’s home run.) The Phillies are hot again, too. They swept the Cubs in Wrigley. They’re five games ahead of the Braves, which might not mean all that much.
Because, when last the Phillies came here, they led by five games on arrival and two on departure. The Braves swept them in Martin Prado’s breakout series. That was in July, and we around here got all excited for about 15 minutes. Then the Braves went to Washington and lost two of three and the Phils went home and got going again and the NL East seemed all but settled.
A month later, it’s again unsettled. If we know nothing else about the Phillies, it’s that they can blow cold without provocation. They’d lost eight of 11 before going to Chicago. They’ve bolstered their pitching by adding Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, neither of whom has yet lost as a Phil, but nothing about that team suggests it’s unbeatable.
Loading ...Especially not its performance against the Braves. The Phils have lost seven of nine this season to Atlanta, which is a key reason the Braves still have a chance to make the playoffs. The Braves can handle the Phils because they can outpitch them, and that’s what figures to happen again this weekend.
Braves take two of three. Phils leave four games in front. Braves stay in the chase.
OK, I lied: Not about the Braves winning the series, but about me being there for Game 1 tonight. After consultation with higher-ups at the ol’ AJC, the decision was made that I should write about Michael Vick for Saturday’s paper.
Previously the plan was for me to write about Game 1 of the Braves-Phillies and to write for Monday off Vick’s “60 Minutes” appearance Sunday night. Now, since Vick’s Eagles introduction today has essentially rendered “60 Minutes” a moot point, we’ve flipped topics: Vick for tomorrow, Game 3 of Braves-Phils for Monday.
I apologize for misleading you in an earlier post, and I hope you understand that, in this ever-changing world in which we live in (as Sir Paul McCartney, who’ll be in town tomorrow, once had it), sometimes you’ve got to call the audible.
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123 comments Add your comment
Roy Hobbs
August 14th, 2009
12:13 pm
Neftali looked pretty awesome last night.
Bama Aaron
August 14th, 2009
12:14 pm
I think if our pitching stays consistent we’ve got a reasonable shot at 2 out of 3. With a little luck a sweep. The wildcard being which Kawakami shows up for game two. As well as can our hitting stay hot. We need Chipper to start hitting more like the old Chipper and we need McCann to break out of his slump.
Also I think the quirk in the schedule that gave us 2 off days in the same week may help the overworked pen be sharper than they might normally have been.
Jptuba
August 14th, 2009
12:17 pm
Here’s hoping for a Braves sweep! Roy, you forgot to say “first!”.
Paul H
August 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
The Braves are determined to get this done. They know they have a legitimate shot at October after the season seemed dead. They’ve got a win streak. They’ve got confidence. They’ve got motivation. In other words, they have things they haven’t had the last 3 Augusts.
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:20 pm
Yea the pen will be sharper, McCann always rakes against the Phils, and KK has a good shot at winning tomorrow because Cole Hamles is not the same as he was last year, same for Lidge, so there is major chance we can sweep if we stay hot..though I did note that we take 2
Mark Bradley
August 14th, 2009
12:22 pm
There does seem a difference about this team, by way of contrast to those in 2006 and 2007. (Last year doesn’t really count.)
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:25 pm
Mark, What’s the weather looking like for tonight’s game?
Dark Helmet
August 14th, 2009
12:25 pm
It’s frustrating that Cox didn’t rearrange the rotation to throw Jurrjens, Vazquez, and Hanson…
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:28 pm
I wouldn’t have minded that either, but I’m confident in KK, this guy is a professional and he’s used to winning, so he knows what it takes and he knows he has alot to prove to people, so here’s hoping he comes through in the clutch for us
MiltonDawg
August 14th, 2009
12:32 pm
This series will tell us all we need to know about the remaining games in August & September. IF we can handle the Phils like we did last time they were town..we’re in good shape. Got to stay consistent and win the series. Anybody know if McLouth is coming back tonight??
JPhillies
August 14th, 2009
12:41 pm
Advantage Braves?? yea, ok..lol
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:43 pm
hey even ESPN is putting braves with the advantage…wow I never thought I’d say that about those braves haters!
MC
August 14th, 2009
12:48 pm
Dark Helmet, Kawakami has stepped up in big situations all year. He’s coming off a 7IP, 4H, 0R performance against a very good Dodger lineup, and he will be pitching on an extra day of rest. I’m looking forward to another gutsy performance from Kenshin!
Mark Bradley
August 14th, 2009
12:50 pm
Partly cloud, high 80s during the day. And I’m Jim Cantore for the Weather Channel.
ThaMan
August 14th, 2009
12:51 pm
JEZ – Tonight’s forecast is dark, with continued darkness throughout the night, seeing cases of scattered light first thing in the morning.
TMAC
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
hey JPhillies, good luck with that sorry excuse for a QB… and by the way, the Phillies suck too.
dcp
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
Ok folks, relax. The pitching is a lot more even than you portray it to be. The Phillies ERA over the past 60 days has been the best in baseball. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ are all quality pitchers every bit as good as Vazquez (who everyone here wanted to trade), Lowe, Hanson, and Jair. The hitting is about different styles. The braves piece together rallies with singles and doubles, while the Phillies just need one bad pitch and it’s over the fence by any one of 6 of their starting lineup. These two teams are both different than 30 days ago, but you said it yourself, both are 26-14 over the same span of games so there is no decided advantage – what matters is the rest of the year. This should be a great series – hope the fans come out and support the team.
JEZ
August 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
thanks for the sarcasm from all
Brian
August 14th, 2009
12:59 pm
Despite their recent hot streak, the Braves still have a tall task in front of them. The Phillies, Marlins, and Rockies all won again yesterday. Nobody is folding. The Braves are going to have to stay very hot the rest of the year. Take two out of three, and they’re still four games back, like you said. It’s gonna take some stretch of 8 or 9 straight wins or 15 of 16 at some point to get on top of these races.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:07 pm
This series is big, not because i think we can end up with more wins than Philly (i doubt it), but because i think our more realistic goal is the wildcard.
We need to be rooting against Colorado and San Fran every game they play! Here’s hoping the Marlins sweep the Rockies! Yes i know FL is infront of us, but i firmly believe that regardless, we can catch and pass them. But we have little control over what the Rockies/ Giants do. We cant afford for the Rockies to get much more than 10 games over .500 for us to have a chance.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:16 pm
BravesFan79, I agree with your reasoning, but come to the opposite conclusion. It is precisely because we play the Phillies and Marlins a lot the rest of the year that a division title remains more likely than a wild card berth. Fewer teams to jump, and we don’t have any control over what the Rockies and Giants do. I personally think they will keep winning. If we play .650 ball against the division the rest of the way, we’ll win it. But there’d still be a strong chance we’d be behind those two West teams.
Wayn-o
August 14th, 2009
1:21 pm
They should focus on the division not the wild card. It allows for the braves to be in control with so many games against the Fish & Phils. we don’t play the wild card teams (if so not enough) to be in control of our own destiny. it leaves it up to scoreboard watching.
AppalachiaBrave
August 14th, 2009
1:21 pm
Why not sign Smoltz for some bullpen help?? He would make a great closer again!?
hawkfan
August 14th, 2009
1:29 pm
Dont normally blog braves articles … but just felt like wishing the braves good luck!
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:29 pm
Here’s a testament to the Braves’ current pitching staff: of the pitchers currently on the 25-man roster, only Kris Medlen’s ERA is above the league average, which is 4.48 (Medlen’s is only slightly above, at 4.50). Kawakami’s is second-highest at 4.12, but that is an above-average ERA. The Braves are the only team in baseball that has zero pitchers (at least 29 IP) with an ERA over 4.50. No one has more pitchers under 4.50 (12), and no one has more pitchers under 4.00 (9).
The point is…they may not be headlined with dominant Cy Young winners these days, but the 2009 Braves have an excellent, and very, very deep, pitching staff.
Mitchell
August 14th, 2009
1:31 pm
As nervous as I am about KK on Saturday, I’m more nervous about JJ tonight.
He needs to have a good game. He can’t let them get to him. He is known to bend but not break but more recently it’s been bend but not break, then an inning later… break.
I just hope we can get some runs for him.
I mean, you can’t just expect us to sweep the series again. We can, but we’re still pretty vulnerable. We need good pitching and good defense. They have to play tough.
And hopefully we have good umps for this one who don’t do fist-bumps or throw people out of the game on a whim.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:31 pm
I agree…. resign Smoltz before someone else does!
Brian: so does that mean your rooting for the Marlins to sweep the Rockies? if so….terrible idea…. the Marlins are nothing but a pawn that we can jump past any time weather it be in the division race (if both teams passed the Phillies which i seriously doubt), or in the wild card race. In fact id LOVE to see the Marlins tied for the wild card lead because that would mean all 4 teams (rockies, giants, braves, marlins) would be bunched up within 2 games of each other. Therefore giving the Braves a better shot.
If the Rockies get to 20 games over .500 we have little to no shot at making the playoffs. Unless the Phillies TOTALLY collapse… which i seriously doubt will happen.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:38 pm
I mean to say… rooting for the Rockies to sweep the Marlins.
Personally im hoping the Fish sweep em…. im more worried about the Rockies being a obstacle to us getting to the playoffs than i am the Fish.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:39 pm
Bravesfan79, no, I’m rooting for the Braves to win their games, not the Marlins or Rockies or anyone else. If we do, we’ll make the playoffs, probably as the division winner. To more directly answer your question, no, I would rather the Rockies sweep the Marlins, but that doesn’t matter unless we sweep the Marlins (or at least win a lot) too. Can’t sweep the Rockies or Giants any more. Put it this way: to get to 90 wins, we’d have to go 30-18 the rest of the way. It is likely that we would be beating the Phillies and Marlins a lot if we did that. We’d have to count on the Rockies to 25-22 AT BEST the rest of the way, with no influence from us.
jeffrey d
August 14th, 2009
1:40 pm
Did somebody really ask Mark what the weather was going to be like?
Mark, what’s the traffic on 85 going to be like? Do you think it’s time for a haircut? Can you come fix my satellite dish?
Ohman
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
Just don’t anyone throw beer on Shane Victorino. He don’t like that.
Bama Aaron
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
Agree BF79.. I’ll be rooting for the fish to sweep the Rockies. We can take of the fish the next time we play them, but we need help bringing those west coast teams down!
Chief
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
JEFF FRANCOUER HAS JUST BEEN TRADED!
Chief
August 14th, 2009
1:42 pm
FIRST?
91AtlantaBraves
August 14th, 2009
1:43 pm
how many tickets have been sold for tonights game? weekend series?
We need to pack da house..
RobertNAtl
August 14th, 2009
1:46 pm
Which route provides us a better chance to make the playoffs: (a) win the wild-card race or (b) win the NL East. Three weeks ago I thought our only shot to make the playoffs was the wild-card route, but today I am about convinced our only shot is to overtake the Phillies and win the NL East. Which makes this series all the more crucial.
And to add to the list of questions for Mark, the all-purpose guru: Your take on health-care reform, please. (After your answers on weather, traffic, haircuts, and satellite dishes.)
Brian
August 14th, 2009
1:48 pm
91AtlantaBraves, I would think all three games should be near sell-outs. Hopefully that will help the Braves.
As far as the division/wild card debate goes: Baseball Prospectus has a cool page updated daily that shows postseason odds for all teams. They simulate the rest of the season a million times and show the percentage of time each team makes the playoffs. They give us odds of about 22% to win the division and 7.5% to win the wild card. And the reason is because we play the teams ahead of us in the division so many times. Bottom line is, doesn’t matter who we root for from our couch…if the Braves win 30-35 games the rest of the way, they’ve got a good shot at the playoffs.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:48 pm
JPhillies, yeah the Braves have the advantage, we have crushed you guys all season long. We would have only been four games out if it weren’t for the third game of the first series this year. Other then that game you guys have trouble beating the Braves and you guys are only in first by a miracle.
mudcat
August 14th, 2009
1:51 pm
Don’t count on the Rockies fading. 2/3 of their games in September are at home, and most of the teams are sub .500 teams. The Braves have one shot. First, when Hudson comes back, go with a six man rotation to ensure keeping our starters fresh for the final push. Second, supplement the pen with a couple of young arms, starting on Sept. 1 when we can bring up some guys for our system. Lastly, bring up Heyward and Freeman. They’ve been hitting the ball solid all season and they’ve earned this and they’ll probably help our offense. Lastly, don’t let Norton get close to a bat the rest of the year.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:52 pm
I don’t know why you rather have our division rival sweep the Rockies Bravesfan79, you should rather hope that the Marlins get swept so we are in second by a few games. We need to take first and not worried about the wildcard, personally I think the wildcard is a joke to make the losers of the divisons feel better and it should be first place only.
trey
August 14th, 2009
1:53 pm
I am more concerned of the teams above us in our division than of the wildcard, because we want the divison title over the wildcard.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
Brian: you seriously think the Phillies are more likely to have a .500 record the rest of the season than the Rockies? face it…. we need the Rockies / Giants to loose all the games possible… their our biggest obstacle to the playoffs. I just cant picture the Phillies being any less than 20 games over .500 by the time the season is over with. While i picture the wild card leader being hopefully closer to 10 games over .500
skeezix
August 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
After that great series in LA, this series is probably the most critical one of the season. I hope we get excellent umpires – we don’t need another crook like Hohn – so when its over, we don’t feel cheated again like after the series in Boston and Fla. Those series cost us two games – two games due to an inept or unethical umpire with an axe to grind. Bobby has really brought this team along; the offense has been a huge surprise. So I think they can win this series. We are running all cylinders (so are tghe Phils) and well rested. Now if only Chipper and Brian would pick it up offensively a bit…… it could be the most fun of the season!
Kashi
August 14th, 2009
1:59 pm
I say we will get 1/3. Phillies are different team then we met in July. Guys have come back from injuries and it is a different line up. Nothing to take it easy. It is the preview of playoff series. Go Braves!
Jfreak
August 14th, 2009
2:05 pm
I see them losing two out of three. All three games very close but bullpen does us in. Two low scoring games (1 and 3) One High scoring game (game 2: Phillies 7 Braves 3) We win game three and keep pace in the wild card hunt. This series may determine the division but the wild card still in reach if we get at least one win. I think our pitching will keep pace with the Giants and maybe just maybe we can steal the wild card?
DawginLex
August 14th, 2009
2:05 pm
Why does anyone want the Marlins to keep winning. They are in the Braves division. Let them lose all the games to colorado. The Braves need to sweep the Phils and eventually pass them and win the division.
None of this let’s play for the wild card crap. If you are first, you don’t need help from anybody else.
Michael
August 14th, 2009
2:06 pm
Thank you for talking about the only Atlanta-Philly story that matters today. Save the Vick crap for another day.
trey
August 14th, 2009
2:06 pm
We need to compete for first place not that bull wildcard. I want the Rockies to beat the Marlins so we will be in second in the division.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:07 pm
I think the division is with in reach only if the Braves can at least take 2 of 3 from Phillie. Like (bravefan79) said, we should also worry about Colorado & the Giants. But I can’t even imagine rooting for Florida for any reason ever. What if we do over take Philly only to lose the division to Florida. Forget about the wild card. We have our destiny in our own hands right now. As long as we keep it real close with Phillie, even if we lose the division, we can have a legitimate chance at the wild card. So pass up Florida with this series if Colorado beats up on Florida & maybe we can get 2 of 3, maybe even a sweep of the Phillies. The braves can not……..I REPEAT, can not worry about the wild card. Lets win this division. It is defiantly within our reach.
trey
August 14th, 2009
2:08 pm
Thank you DawginLex, at least you think we should want our own division opponents to lose.
trey
August 14th, 2009
2:09 pm
David, root for the Rockies to beat the opponents of us in our division, but root for another team to beat the Rockies in another division.
AppalachiaBrave
August 14th, 2009
2:11 pm
Come on…Don’t you Braves fans remember how dominate Smoltzie was as a closer?? Why doesn’t Frankie check this out? Would be a nice veteran addition to the bullpen?
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 14th, 2009
2:12 pm
The Braves control their own destiny and that’s what a series like this is all about. It’s up to them how it turns out.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
2:12 pm
BravesFan79, you better hope the Phillies aren’t 20 games over .500 at the end of the season, cause if they are, we aren’t winning the division or the wild card, because they would be beating us. I think It is HIGHLY unlikely that the wild card winner will have less than 90 wins. 10 games over .500 would be 86-76. That would be the worst ever record for a wild card team.
dcp
August 14th, 2009
2:13 pm
trey
Really – the Phillies are in first by a miracle? The Phillies are in first because they have the best lineup with better than adequate pitching. When they last played in July, Rollins was hitting a shade above .200 and Ibanez was on DL, they had Moyer in the rotation. Rollins has since woken up and is doing his job as a leadoff hitter. The Phillies have made the fewest errors in baseball, so they don’t beat themselves. Scoring runs and not beating yourself are not signs of a team that needs a miracle to be in first. It’s ok to be a homer, but try to be realistic and recognize that sometimes you have a team’s number and sometimes you won’t. Different teams, different series. Braves do have very good pitching and their lineup is better, so they have every chance to make a statement this weekend – just don’t assume it’s a rollover. Those miraculous Phillies did win the Series last year anf adding Lee does not make them any easier.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:14 pm
Exactly, trey. We can’t worry about things that are out of our control. The Braves only have control of there own destiny. Go Colorado, Go Mets, & go Braves.
brew
August 14th, 2009
2:14 pm
So if the music man doesn’t play the calvary charge song we will be ok. It has never made sense to me that Braves fans get happy because the calvary is coming. Unless you’re Sittng Bull and that’s General Custer on the horn, what’s there to be happy about?
Anyway, if the bats stay hot, we sweep, and the Phils live town crying in their beer. By the time they wake up, we are in first, and McCann is the new Mr. October.
ghostwriter
August 14th, 2009
2:14 pm
I think that it’s going to be easier to take the division than the wild card. It seems like all of the potential wild card teams keep playing one another and it’s too tough to gain ground there. It’s still really possible for us, but I’d rather focus on just taking down Philly and Florida and snagging the division.
Eric in San Jose
August 14th, 2009
2:17 pm
People – get a grip. We are in AUGUST. One more time – we are in AUGUST!!
WE have 6 more games with the Phillies after this series – so as long as we don’t get swept then things aren’t lost.
More than anything this is a psychological boost IF we can take 2 of 3 or better.
Thumbs down to Bobby for allowing KK to pitch in this series – he is a bust, no way around it.
Throwing JJ, Vazquez and Hanson would have been much better.
If the Braves take 2 out of 3 or sweep then the division is wide open. The wild card will also be a tough and challenging road.
For the first time in 4 years September could be exciting again!
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
2:17 pm
As far the playoffs are concerned, id rather us play the Dodgers in the first round than the Cardinals. I think the winner of the wild card has a great shot to advance (if they play the Dodgers). Therefore us winning the wildcard would give us a greater shot to advance in the playoffs than if we won the division and had to play the Cardinals.
trob
August 14th, 2009
2:18 pm
the crowd needs to get rowdy tonight and support JJ. He hasnt had a win his past 2 outings and for him to get a W would boost some confidence in the lineup. Lets take one game at a time and control what we can.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:19 pm
I hate the Mets but their season is over. So lets hope the Mets whoop on the Giants & Zito tonite.
Out of Town
August 14th, 2009
2:20 pm
As long as Kelly Johnson doesn’t drop a pop up just behind first base I think we’ve got a good chance this weekend.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
2:22 pm
Why would anyone rather play the Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in the NL, in the first round? Even after the Cardinals’ recent hot streak and the Dodgers’ (relatively) cold streak, the Dodgers still have a better record by 5.5 games.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:25 pm
The Dodgers are starting to show there weaknesses, and everybody is noticing it.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
2:25 pm
Actually, we’d probably play the Dodgers if we won the division, too. The wild card would likely come out of the West, and they don’t match up teams from the same division in the first round. It depends on if we would end up with a better record than the Cardinals or not. We are nearly guaranteed not to play the Cardinals in the first round either way.
GwinnettFan
August 14th, 2009
2:26 pm
I think the real focus needs to be how far back are the Braves in the LOSS column. We are 3 back of colorado, and 6 back of Philly. IF we sweep Philly, the Braves are still 3 back in the LOSS column. I think at this point, id rather be 3 back in the wild card race, than 6 back in the East, regardless of how many times we play philly and the fish.
skeezix
August 14th, 2009
2:26 pm
Mark: By the way, your blog on announcers has been my favorite. Reading about other folks’ favorite memories of announcers was great and stirred many memories of my own!
dcp
August 14th, 2009
2:28 pm
Stats – 08/14/2009 AVG R HR RBI SB SO ERA IP H BB SO
PHI .258 591 157 567 80 808 4.33 1017.0 1039 367 801
ATL .265 511 104 487 41 713 3.69 1023.0 969 390 849
There are your stats…
Trey – to say the Phils are in first by a miracle is a bit misguided. The Phillies can score runs – you miss your spot as a pitcher and it’s a 3 run home run and the game changes just like that. I like the Braves pitching, but the Phillies have scored 80 more runs in 2 fewer games, and their defense does not beat itself – fewest errors in baseball. This will be a tough series with a totally different angle with Rollins hitting way better than when they last visited and Ibanez back from the DL. Relax on your miracle comments – the Phillies are the Series champs and they are not lucky to be in first. Every game counts. Hopefully the atmosphere will be good down at the park. Let’s see what happens.
Brian
August 14th, 2009
2:28 pm
OK, people, enough about division and wild card. Let’s focus on the series at hand. The key to the series to me is scoring more runs than the Phillies in each of the three games. If we do that, I think we’ve got a heck of a shot at a sweep.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:32 pm
Lets hope Hammels can beat Johnson and his 11-2 record.
David
August 14th, 2009
2:34 pm
Brian, isn’t that the key in every baseball game that’s ever been played. Out score your opponent to win the game
David
August 14th, 2009
2:35 pm
What I think you mean Brian is to have more total runs by the end of the 3 game series that the Phillies
Brian
August 14th, 2009
2:39 pm
No, David, I would definitely like to see us score at least one more run than the Phillies in each of the three games. Our record when we do that is much better than it is when we score at least one run less than our opponents.
BravesFan79
August 14th, 2009
2:39 pm
Brian: while the Dodgers have the best record theres no way there better than the Cardinals! Especially since the Cards got Holliday! And If the Braves were to somehow win the division, i think the Phillies would win the wildcard.
If the Marlins sweep the Rockies, and the Mets swept the Giants wed be .5 games out of the wildcard lead. Meanwhile the Phillies are 16 games over .500, with plenty of games left to play against the nationals im sure. We need to be rooting for the Rockies to fall and stay closer to 10 games over .500 im not that concerned about the Giants and Marlins in the long run.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 14th, 2009
2:51 pm
I think the Cardinals are a better team than the Dodgers and I’d still keep my eye on the Fish.
Blackberry Cobbler
August 14th, 2009
2:56 pm
Every time this season the Braves have had a chance to make a move, they’ve blown it. Despite their recent winning ways, they are still 5 games back. They were 6 games back in late July. Get real. They’ve gained 1 game.
I’m hoping the Braves take 2 of 3 or sweep the Phils this series. But I won’t be surprised if they don’t. History is not on their side.
Take 2/3 and you’re still 4 games back. I think the Braves have a much much better shot at the Wildcard then catching the Phils.
David
August 14th, 2009
3:13 pm
Go Braves Go Braves Go Braves Go Braves Go Braves
Uknown Hinson
August 14th, 2009
3:17 pm
If we take 2/3 we’ll be 3 games back Blackberry.
Uknown Hinson
August 14th, 2009
3:18 pm
Disregard, bad math on my part, or wishful thinking
Ramblin Wrecker
August 14th, 2009
3:42 pm
Mark Bradley,
Why does everybody keep saying the Braves need to take 2 out of 3 from the Phillies as if that will be good enough? I don’t see it that way. The Braves trail by 5 games. They only have 3 (3-game) series left with Philly. Winning 2 of 3 equates to gaining one game in the standings. So by this logic you (and EVERYBODY ELSE) is saying that the Braves only need to pick up 3 games in the standings in their head to head games with Philly. That will leave them 2 games short, because you cannot be sure that Philly will lose 2 more games than the Braves the rest of the way in their other matchups. And more than likely, since these teams seem to be fairly even, the Braves and Phillies will have similar records in their other games that aren’t against each other. That leaves the Braves short. I think the Braves need to have the sweep mentality in mind, because it’s the only guaranteed way to catch the Phillies. Enough of this 2 of 3 nonsense.
Art Vandalay
August 14th, 2009
3:49 pm
DCP,
we didn’t want to trade Vazquez because we didn’t like him or he wasn’t good,we wanted to trade him because he thought he needed to find a bat and he had the most value. Please don’t comment on the Braves if you don’t know what you’re talking about. Also, please look at the records an ERAs everyone of the Phillies pitchers are worse than the Braves except J.A. Happ and they pitch on supposedly a more talented club so how do you figure they are even? Wait a minute, do you work at ESPN?
Jack G.
August 14th, 2009
3:53 pm
Ramblin
You got that right.
DaddyDawg
August 14th, 2009
3:53 pm
It’s amazing how many people miss the more important point that the Braves are 6 games behind the Phils in the loss column, rather than 5 games behind in the standings. If the Braves go 6-3 versus the Phils in their 9 games remaining with each other, then the Braves have to hope that the Phils lose at least 3 more games than the Braves down the stretch just to tie the Phils. In other words, the Braves don’t have control over their own destiny by beating the Phils head to head unless the Braves go 8-1 or 9-0. Anything less will leave the Braves behind the Phils, hoping the Phils lose to someone else, and only the Braves and Marlins have had much success in beating the Phils. Look at the difference in the loss column, not games behind in the standings, as the more accurate indicator of just how much ground you have to make up…….
Art Vandalay
August 14th, 2009
3:53 pm
We thought we needed to find a bat* not he though, but he probably thought so to with the run support he got.
birddawgbill
August 14th, 2009
3:56 pm
Some good stats to consider,J.J 12.1 IP 1R,J.V 19IP 7R, KK 6IP 2R. Current BP 19.2IP 9R. Total 48IP 19R or under 4Rs per game. This is all against the mighty Phils O.
Art Vandalay
August 14th, 2009
3:58 pm
umm i’m not math major but I do believe the games back are the issue. Now let me work this out, stay with me here but we are five games out, now if we sweep them we will be 2 games out. If we have an identical record as them until we play again (as we do now) we will be 2 games out when we meet again. Now if we take 2 out of three next time we will be 1 game out. Again, we have the same record until we meet again then take two games, we finish 1 game up. Thats a 7-2 record against them, which coincidentally is where we stand right now.
Art Vandalay
August 14th, 2009
4:00 pm
however you cant say we will continue to play at the same pace, but how do you know the Phillies won’t be the team to cool off?
Mark Bradley
August 14th, 2009
4:06 pm
Two of three is the minimum requirement, Ramblin Wrecker. Four games back with a month and a half to play gives you a realistic chance.
Oh, and thanks, Skeezix.
Smart Jay
August 14th, 2009
4:08 pm
DCP – what’s your source on the pitching? I can’t go back 60 days, but the MLB site does provide monthly pitching breakdowns (so, unless the Phils gave up massive runs June 1-13, these ought to be close enough). Since June 1st, the Phillies ERA is 3.82, Braves us 3.36. I will look at some other teams, but I woudl guess that the Phillies are NOT even number 2.
trey
August 14th, 2009
4:11 pm
Exactly, the only time I consider the other teams outside our divisions threats to us are win we play them and we can lose and fall deeper in our own division. We need to worry about our own division before the Rockies. DCP, the Phillies may have great hitting to make up for their pitching, but as an old saying goes, “Good pitching always beats good hitting.” that is usually true because look how much better we have been against the Phillies. We would have won the final game in the first series but look how horrible our relievers were.
Smart Jay
August 14th, 2009
4:23 pm
BTW June was a good ERA month for the Phils, they led the NL. They also played 17 of 28 games on the road, where their record is 16 games better than at home.
Also, since June 1st, SF leads the league in ERA at 3.29, Braves 2nd at 3.36, LA is third at 3.53, Colorado is 3.68, Chicago 3.75, Philly is at 3.82 and St. Louis at 3.86.
So Phils are good, but mid-pack. Not even near best.
GT
August 14th, 2009
4:33 pm
We beat em so bad last time you wonder if we can do it again. I like that they are hot, all they can do is cool off, the trouble is we are hot too and something has to give. I am thinking we win one, hope I am wrong, but to my way of thinking this team has done better already than my wildest hopes, anything else outside a total collapse which I don’t see happening is a bonus. I really thought we would never see good baseball in this town again, I went half my life without it. Now it is deep into August and they still are entertaining me. They can play with anybody, and now it is the luck of the draw if they make it, that is all you can ask.
bali smith
August 14th, 2009
4:41 pm
mark it is ok to mislead your readers sometimes……… live and let die…….. I always say
Smart Jay
August 14th, 2009
4:47 pm
Speaking of stats – the Phils are amazingly consistent (to me). They have 81 homers at home,and 77 on the road. While their HR production is right there, though, they score 10% less on the road and slug about 10% less.
The Braves score about 20% less runs at Turneer Field despite having very similar averages and slugging %’s. The 20% is consistent with the more homers they have on the road.
Speaking of Wild Cards. The average number of wins for the wild card has been 91 since 2001. The Braves would need to go 31-17 to make that, or a .646 clip. The Rockies, who have the easiest path, only need to go 27-20, or .574, oronly slightly better than what they have done all season, and certainly as good as what they have done since the Hurdle firing.
So, the money for Wild Card should be on Colorado. But, that’s why you play the games, because anything can happen.
jon
August 14th, 2009
4:52 pm
Really Mark???? You do so well at stating the obvious. First you are down on the Braves entering the series against Washington and now this! The Braves need this series???? I never would have guessed! I am sure if the Braves dropped (3) to the Phillies to go 8 games back that they would be in perfect position to make a run in the post-season. I know it is an editorial; however, can you at least make it appear that you think we, the readers, have a clue. I’m not saying…I’m just saying!
dcp
August 14th, 2009
4:55 pm
Smart Jay, no one is saying the Braves don’t have good pitching. They do, and thank goodness, or they would have been 15 games back the way they hit before they went out and adjusted the lineup. I’m saying the idea that the Braves have a great advantage in starting pitching is a stretch. You are correct – I meant the last 30 days – Braves are 2.92 and Phillies are 3.30 – hardly worth a huge difference there. Both teams have a new wrinkle in Happ and Hanson; both teams have solid aces (acquired by each no less) in Lee and Lowe, Hamels and Vazquez, and then you get to tonight’s matchup – Blanton, who has been pitching very well – “from MLB – Braves site” – Blanton has a 1.87 ERA (nine earned runs in 43 1/3 innings) in his last six starts. He has a 2.46 ERA (24 earned runs in 87 2/3 innings) in 13 starts since May 21, vs. Jurrjens who is very solid. If you are going to barking about a huge difference, the difference that matters is the 5 game lead between the teams. Then you have Kawakami vs. Martinez – a push. Let the series and season play out. Both teams have changed since the season started. Trey – “really does good pitching always beat good hitting?” And so the Phillies must have won the World Series last year with good pitching? I don’t remember that. It’s a team game – you have to play hard for 27 outs every game – you have play defense and you have to hit. It’s not just pitching. The Braves are on a roll and have a good chance to keep it up – just leave the mismatches as you perceive them out of the equation – these are two good and evenly matched teams.
You’ve won 7 of 9 and are still 5 games out. Oh, and while we are at it, maybe consider the ballparks each team plays in – Bobby Cox always whines about the Phillies park and the pop fly home runs (even though he forgets two team plays in the same park each night – perhaps that adds some to your ERA, you think?
TheAntiMe
August 14th, 2009
5:11 pm
It’s so darn funny. I’ve been hanging out a little on ESPN.com today and so many of the Phillies fans just think the Braves have absolutely no chance, whatsoever, to do anything but be swept this weekend.
I don’t want to say that some of the Phillies fans are cocky, or anything, but according to them, they should not even play the rest of the schedule but instead just let the rest of the teams in MLB play each other for the privilege of losing to the Phillies in the World Series.
Some of these folks may just be in for a little surprise. :O
Smart Jay
August 14th, 2009
5:16 pm
Clearly Citizens Bank park hurts Phils pitchers. The staff ERA is 4.68 at home, with 81 HR’s and 198 walks. Away, they’re 3.94/60/169.
That’s a big difference. On the order of Yankee stadium and Coors Field.
Collectively, it doesn’t seem to hurt the hitters as much, but, we’d really need to look at the individuals. I just don’t have time for that.
The Phils have seriously helped themselves with Lee. I think Pedro is a mistake, but maybe he has something left (Braves will miss them both this time, sadly).
I don’t think the Braves will either overtake the Phils or win the wild card. I think 86-88 wins is all they will get and that will not be enough.
But, I am hoping to be surprised.
Scott B
August 14th, 2009
5:18 pm
Philadelphia’s postion in the NL East IS NOT going to hold much longer. For the better part of the summer they have managed to stay on top, but it’s only a matter of time before the Braves catch, and then pass, this Philly ballclub. Atlanta’s overall play has been flat-out superior for the past two months or so and, in the end, the division will belong to the Braves.
It’s high-time for Atlanta’s clubhouse to be the site of four champagne-soaked celebrations. Yep, I can sense it happening…