SI has Tech No. 12 and UGA No. 15, and I say, “Close”
Two good Jackets: Josh Nesbitt dodges Derrick Morgan. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
A year ago Sports Illustrated, like pretty much everyone else, ranked Georgia No. 1. This year the venerable magazine has the Bulldogs No. 15, three spots behind Georgia Tech. And I saw that yesterday and said to myself, “That’s pretty darn close.”
The USA Today coaches’ poll was released last week, and it surprised me. Georgia was No. 13, two places ahead of the Jackets. And that, you should know, made me go, “Hmmm.”
Flying home from the Capital One Bowl, I did a back-of-the-envelope estimate and guessed, without Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, Georgia would be ranked No. 21 to Tech’s No. 9, but I realize now I might have been suffering from jet lag. (Yeah, I know. Orlando’s in the same time zone. But it’s only excuse I can find.) I probably had Tech a tad too high and definitely had Georgia too low.
Were I doing the same computations today, I’d put Tech No. 10 — I think this is a Top 10 team that will win the ACC and play in the Orange Bowl – and Georgia No. 15. I think the Bulldogs will lose four games, each to a team SI ranks above them, but no more. So that’d be, in my mind, a good 8-4 season. (I know from the tenor of your response many among you don’t feel there’s any such thing.)
I also agree with SI’s choice for No. 2 — Texas. (In fact, I see Texas, which was also No. 2 in the coaches’ poll, beating Florida in the BCS title game.) I think the magazine has Virginia Tech and Ole Miss way too high at Nos. 5 and 6, respectively, and Alabama a bit elevated at No. 8, but other than that I have no real disagreement. But I do have a mathematical quibble:
Loading ...SI has both Tech and Georgia finishing 9-3 and second in their respective divisions. (Tech to Virginia Tech, Georgia to guess who.) The magazine also has Georgia going 5-3 in SEC play, which would mean finishing unbeaten against non-conference opponents. Which would mean beating Tech. But if Tech and Georgia both go 9-3 and the Bulldogs win at Bobby Dodd Stadium, shouldn’t they be ranked higher?
The magazine also has Oklahoma State, which it ranks No. 7 in the land, going unbeaten in non-conference play. Both things cannot happen. Either Georgia or OSU must lose Sept. 5 in Stillwater. And with that I’ll step aside, mindful always of what Agent Mulder once told his winsome partner:
“Nobody likes a math geek, Scully.”
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304 comments Add your comment
GT Fan...
August 23rd, 2009
12:24 pm
Depending on how you look at it Mark GT is actually returning 19 starters; 11 on offense, and 8 on defense.
If you take the starting line-up from 9/1/08 compared to 9/1/09 then you are correct in your 17. HOWEVER, if you take the starters from after the FSU game, then all 11 offensive starters return. When A. Gardner went down in the FSU, in stepped N. Claytor (A. Barrick had already replaced GT’s other Sr.), and there makes the ‘09 starting 11.
It’s also the FSU game & beyond when GT really started executing the offense better. Now in ‘09 the oline gets more depth with R-Fr coming in along with guys who got lots of snaps in ‘08 due to OL injuries. Add to that the depth in the backfield with A. Allen (from Louisville), and R. Watson (R-Fr), to go along with true Fr WR S. Hill. The offense should be, if it stays healthy, VERY potent in ‘09.
I’ve said it before regarding the D. The 3 DL gone in ‘09, IMO, won’t be as big a deal as so many think. There was a decent rotation in ‘08 during games within the DL. I witnessed it b/c I attended the games. The guys backing-up Johnson, Richards, & Walker are good players. Now in ‘09 thrown in GT’s answer to Bama’s “Mount Cody”, 6′7″ 340lb, R-Fr T.J. Barnes, and possibly true Fr J.C. Lanier (6′4″ 340lb) along with some other R-Fr., and I believe people are going to be pleasantly surprised at the DL play this season.
Get by Clemson, Miami, UNC (I’d take 2-1 though) then comes the killer Oct. schedule. 5 games total, 4 on the road: @ MissSt, @ FSU, vs. VT, @ Va, @ Vandy. Go 4-1 in Oct, and the Jackets would be 7-2 with a final 3 of: vs. Wake, @ Duke, vs. GA.
Miracles can happen, but THE BEST I see GT being come Nov. is 8-1. THE WORST, 5-4. I can see them winning their first 4, but just can’t see them going 5-0 in Oct.
I’m seeing a 10-4, 11-3 (9-5 at worst) for the Jackets which means I’m predicting they win the Coastal (espcially if they start out 4-0). If miracles happen then look for 12-2 or slightly better.
Blah, blah, I kown … If “ifs & buts were candy & nuts…..”
Preseason polls are a joke, and make many “experts” look stupid. Play a few games, then rank’em.
Great point Mark about the SI rankings …. GA & OSU are both going to win all of their non-conference games. Hmmm???
GT4Ever
August 23rd, 2009
5:28 pm
Joe Cox hasn’t done anything for what, 4 years now? You UGA fans think he’s going to come in and be a superstar, you’re just crazy. He been sitting the bench for the last some odd 40 games with only spot duty. He’s going to have to dust that rust off if he’s going to be your savior. I see you guys losing at least 5 games. OK State is for real. They barely lost to Texas and put up 41 on OK last year. They’ll have there core offensve guys back and will be pass happy all over UGA’s arse!!! You’ll also lose to Arkansas, LSU, UF and GT. Count on it.
Speak Easy
August 23rd, 2009
8:24 pm
Kelly’s a dawg- You must be an intelligent individual who knows a lot about football. Because you’re right. The LSU game is a “how to” video for stopping the GT offense. All the teams that play GT have to do is watch the tapes of the game and they will automatically stop the triple option. I guess all the teams that play Florida this year should just watch tapes from the Ole MIss game so they can stop there offense to. You are absolutely right Kelly. Watching tapes is all you have to do to stop another teams offense. It couldn’t be that bad games just happen sometimes. I mean all the teams that played Florida after the Ole Miss game must have watched that tape and it worked out so well for all of them. So…. thank you Kelly for clearing this all up for all college football fans. Your intelligence astounds me. If only I had thought of that. Oh well.
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3:55 am
[...] For the record, SNT has Georgia Tech No. 11, Georgia No. 15. As I noted when Sports Illustrated put the former No. 12 and the latter also No. 15, that sounds close to me. [...]