Why, these Braves might be playing in October after all
I’m starting, again, to think this is going to happen. I thought the Braves were a playoff team when they left Lake Buena Vista, and then I watched the first 80 games and thought, “Wrong again, Brad.” (Bobby Cox, as you know, calls me “Brad.”) But now they’ve won six of seven and they just beat Tim Lincecum and I’m back to where I was in the spring.
The 2009 Atlanta Braves. A wild-card team.
Only three back in the WC standings, if you’d care to check.
What Frank Wren and I thought would happen all along is happening now: The pitching would keep them in every game, and they’d hit enough to win most of those games. The hitting took a while to come around — to be honest, I’d convinced myself it never would — but here it is. And this looks like a real team, a good team, a team that wouldn’t be out of its depth in October.
This isn’t the same team we saw in May, both figuratively and literally. Jordan Schafer and Kelly Johnson are in Class AAA and Jeff Francoeur is a Met. Those were, as a multitude of you pointed out, the biggest holes in an unassuming batting order. But now Martin Prado is hitting like Pete Rose and Francoeur isn’t killing innings and Nate McLouth is providing professional, as opposed to amateurish, at-bats. And did I mention that the pitching is still great?
And did I mention that Yunel Escobar is playing like the All-Star shortstop Chipper Jones believes he can be? The National League player of the week last week, and now a threejack off the San Francisco Freak.
Loading ...And you know how you can tell something has changed? No, by not the hitting. (Sometimes that’s a function of lousy pitching by the other side.) By the defense. Every member of the infield made a splendid play in Tuesday’s game, and even Garret Anderson kept a ball down the line from reaching the corner and becoming a double.
Defense, see, is infectious. Defense is a clear sign a team is believing. And so, after 3 1/2 months of doubting myself and these Braves, am I.
Now watch them go lose Thursday afternoon.
(But if they do, you can, via the magic of the Internet, yell at me for jinxing them. I’ll be doing a live chat from the ballpark starting about 12:30 p.m. and going throughout the day. I look forward to your patronage.)
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136 comments Add your comment
richbrave
July 23rd, 2009
6:56 am
There’s no denying that the team offense is markedly improved with FRANCOUER and JOHNSON out of the line-up, PRADO in it, and ESCOBAR batting sixth. Let’s see if they can reach my predicted 86 win level. Continue playing like this and maybe they break 90. They certainly look like they can at this point.
Braves are dreaming of October baseball. | The Recycle Bin
July 23rd, 2009
7:01 am
[...] Bradley of the ajc thinks Atlanta has a playoff worthy team. This isn’t the same team we saw in May, both [...]
jimmya
July 23rd, 2009
7:04 am
heres hoping this is the real braves team now and they dont start playing like they did the first half
MiltonDawg
July 23rd, 2009
7:31 am
If they continue like they’ve been doing…screw WC, how about Division title? I just hope the Phils cool off and we beat them during the head to head matchups. Must carry this hot streak into August/September. Somebody has lit a fire under these guys!! GO BRAVES!!!
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 23rd, 2009
7:41 am
I am going to say I was wrong, the Braves need to be buyers. Go get Holliday. Just don’t give up Yunel. Oh and sign him to a long term contract while he can’t speak English and figures out how to say Boras.
Del
July 23rd, 2009
8:02 am
One alternative to the Kelly J. problem coming up shortly is to have him replace Norton as a bench player and back-up fielder. He sure couldn’t do any worse than Norton is doing this year. DFA Norton. We gain in plate power, speed and defense. Sounds like a winner to me!!
MightyQuinn
July 23rd, 2009
8:06 am
“…sign him to a long term contract while he can’t speak English and learns how to say Boras.”
Don’t always agree with you BW, but thats funny, I don’t care who you are!
Dave
July 23rd, 2009
8:07 am
A number of Braves fans have egg on their face. Some were outraged by not resigning Smoltz what do you think now? Some wanted to keep Glavine which would have meant Hanson would still be at Gwinnett what do you think now? Some morons felt like Escobar was too hard to handle and should be traded what do you think now? I think a number of Braves fans know little about what is best for the Braves now or in the future.
Drixie
July 23rd, 2009
8:11 am
We certainly have the pitching to make a run. The offense needs to average about 5 runs a game and we will be in most games down the stretch. If you look at the lineup now that “Stenchy” is gone, we have no “easy outs” and with the exception of McClouth, everyone is hitting in the .270’s or higher. Go Braves!
SimpleDawg
July 23rd, 2009
8:15 am
Patience is paying off…..and addition by subtraction – KJ, Frenchy, Jordan.
Pitching, defense, and timely hitting will win championships. Right now, the Braves are getting plenty of both.
Let’s allow this group to play out the season and see where we end up. I’m thinking we can still win the division. As several have pointed out, the Phillies’ undoing will be there pitching. The Mets are the Mets – if there’s a way “to spit the bit”, they’ll find it. The Fish don’t seem to have enough pieces to be consistent.
Braves win, Braves win, Braves win ! I sure do miss Skip.
Joey
July 23rd, 2009
8:19 am
Brad, I hope you knocked on wood after you wrote your prediction… Dell, you must watch a different Kelly Johnson than I do. I don’t know a second baseman in the major leagues that plays worse defense than KJ. This good run started when Prado became an everyday starter and KJ was sent down.
Joey
July 23rd, 2009
8:30 am
UcantCLA, you’re right about the Griffey deal. And compare Furcal’s stats to Escobar’s. I guess sometimes the best deals are the ones that don’t get made…
Kashi
July 23rd, 2009
8:30 am
You “MEDIA” has been protraying ESCOBAR as a cancer in clubhouse and trade rumor since spring trainning. Do you have anything to say about his last night 3 runs jack against starting all-star pitcher? A day before his two plays was playing in ESPN all night for top play of the day. You got anything to say about it? C’mon you MEDIA—you always find something negative about him. I’m sure you all have something to write about it. You know what—BRING IT ON.
WREN is preparing a package similar to McCain/Francour to Escobar. Here it go…write about it.
Billi
July 23rd, 2009
8:33 am
………..”and now a threejack off the San Francisco Freak” A humorous line there Brad.
John
July 23rd, 2009
8:34 am
I do not see the Braves catching the Phillies. That said the Braves find themselves in a new divisional race the 2nd half of the season. Here are the teams we have to beat.
Houston
Chicago
St Louis
Colorado
Florida
Milwaukee
San Francisco
It will be tough, very tough, but possible.
Maxwell Snark
July 23rd, 2009
8:40 am
Defense gets it done. Rafael Belliard and Sid Bream. Bream played 12 seasons and hit 90 homers. Schuerholz got him for his glove. Belliard hit exactly one homer in his career. This team has a bit of that ‘91 feel to it.
southern hope
July 23rd, 2009
8:45 am
Honest Abe, you’re hilarious!
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 23rd, 2009
8:50 am
Some good bloggin’, “Brad.” I too am starting to believe. And unlike the first half, we’re not winning 1 and losing 4. We’re winning 4 and losing 1. They’re actually starting to look like baseball players.
abudefdef
July 23rd, 2009
8:51 am
Sign Yunel because he is a great shortstop and is going to develop into on of the all around best in the game…Don’t trade for Holliday, like I said before, it it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…no need to bring in someone who might mess with the chemistry that is gelling in the clubhouse, especially when they come in and everyone knows they’re just here until the end of the season…I’d rather the Braves keep who we have, and stay patient with Heyward and Freeman, those two kids are going to be BEASTS when they get up to the bigs, as long as the Braves show some patience with them…now, if Wren wanted to trade for Holliday and sign him to a long term deal with the team, that would be awesome…I would love to see a lineup of Mclouth, Prado, Chipper, Holliday, McCann, Escobar, Heyward, Freeman, pitcher for the next 3-5 years…imagine that offense, combined with the starting pitchers? Fans would fill the seats and the team would rake in the money, causeu it would be WINNING…imagine the concept if you can
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 23rd, 2009
8:53 am
A question for you Mark: I’m currently operating under the assumption that we will be able to keep both our Type-A free agent closers next season. I’m also hoping we’ll choose to keep Soriano. That being said and assuming we don’t pick up another strong closer, who do you see moving into the set-up spot?
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 23rd, 2009
8:54 am
Oops — I meant “unable.”
Alex
July 23rd, 2009
8:57 am
You guys want to talk about a team playing over their heads, how about the Phillies? They have the worst pitching staff I’ve ever seen for a playoff team. Happ is pitching very well and should continue to be good but not great down the stretch. Hamels hasn’t pitched well and could turn it on, but what about Blanton, Moyer, and whoever they use at 5? Those guys are horrible and its a complete joke they win games. Ibanez and Werth are on rediculous paces to shatter their career highs in HRs. Ibanez has 25 hr in 70 games? Yeah ok hes not Pujols. Werth has 21 hr in 90 games, he’s about a week away from setting a new career high.
The Braves are on fire and need to ride it as long as they can. Both teams will cool down and the Braves will smoke the Phils in Sept with pitching and defense. I didn’t even talk about what the Phils call a bullpen lol.
raleighbravesfan
July 23rd, 2009
9:02 am
Dave, you are right on. We fans have opinions, but we cannot have the knowledge that the team braintrust posesses. Also, we don’t have to worry about the budget.
Steven L.
July 23rd, 2009
9:10 am
Mark,
If you had to make one move for a bat, gun to your head, what would it be? I say trading with the Nats for Adam Dunn. He comes at $8M a season, which is not awful, and is a perfect clean-up hitter with his 40 homer seasons and .400+ OBP. Yea, he strikes out, but so what? Also he’s played 1B some this year and in year’s past so he replaces arguably the weakest part of our line-up for a clean-up hitter that only costs us $3 million more for 2009. If not a trade, what about letting Infante take some bats at 1st? Wouldn’t you rather him out there than Kotchman??
Our lineup with my proposed trade (with batting averages and on-base % in brackets)
Nate McLouth (.258/.330) — Maybe this is the weakest part of our line-up? Ouch
Martin Prado (.323/.384)
Chipper Jones (.290/.406)
Adam Dunn (.267/.400) — 24 homers, 65 RBIs, .941 OPS
Brian McCann (.305/.377)
Yunel Escobar (.308/.370)
Garrett Anderson (.287/.320)
Matt Diaz/Ryan Church
What do you think guys?
DawginLex
July 23rd, 2009
9:13 am
Mark,
I hope you haven’t jinxed us again. You remember some of last year’s predictions didn’t turn out so hot?
I have said all along if Hudson can come back and help and the Braves get any kind of hitting, they are capable of pulling it off. I’m just glad the Mets are imploding.
Looks like Jodie Meeks did the right thing afterall. 2 years guaranteed. He knew it was a weak draft and that his PPG was going to drop with the talent in Lexington and the style of play. Great kid, he deserves it just for putting up with Billy G’s mind games.
Bama Aaron
July 23rd, 2009
9:14 am
I do think the Braves can be a playoff team this year. Pitching is outstanding and could possibly get better with Hudson back. This is just my little ole opinion but if I’m Cox Huddy is a reliever the rest of the year. Long man or 6th, 7th inning man. The rotation is solid and I wouldn’t mess with it now that Lowe is back to his normal self.
The Defense has been outstanding (not counting Church’s miss on a touch ball last night). They’ll be in every game they play the rest of the way with those simple ingredients.
The hitting is coming around (hey even Kotchman is on a hitting streak) so the Wild Card is definitely in reach. Probably more reachable than the Phils, though that could still happen.
Don
July 23rd, 2009
9:20 am
Point being missed by the Baseball Writers is that with their Pitching, this is the way the Braves should have been playing the entire season – had it not taken Cox forever to get Prado in the lineup and to get Francoeur out of the lineup – and if Cox had any undestanding of the necessity for teaching/emphasizing/demanding that our hitters work the count and make the opposing pitchers throw a lot of pitches. With Cox’s lack of management having the Braves next to last in all of baseball in average number of pitches seen per at bat, we will not maintain good run production and will return to our losing ways. Do Baseball Writers (like Cox) not understand that failing to work the count and make the pitcher throw a lot of pitches guarantees terrible run production. Doing so enables your hitters to see what the pitcher has, adjust to the pitcher, get better pitches to hit, make him make mistakes, tires him out, gets you into the teams weak middle relief and multiple other advantages. How can a manager manage for 20 plus years and not understand this first priority and most essential element of offensive management. This is the reason that Cox’s teams have always had poor run production compared to their offensive talent. And this says nothing relating to his terrible in game strategy moves, refusal to adjust batting order to take advantage of hot hitters, refusal to put best players in lineup, mismanagement of the bullpen etc.
abudefdef
July 23rd, 2009
9:37 am
OUCH…someone’s a #6 hater
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 23rd, 2009
9:41 am
Problem with our lineup is Church and Diaz can’t platoon cause Diaz has no arm. Right needs to be addressed as well as first but first might wait for Freeman. .270 with limited power is not a 1st baseman, that position is for a power hitter. The saying goes be strong up the middle not at the corners.
Jeremiah
July 23rd, 2009
9:44 am
Don, and all like BC bashers are just plain IDIOTS!!!!! Don, you said it…BC has been managing for 20+ years and is one of the most successful baseball managers of all time, and IMHO the BEST! You Monday-Morning quarterbacks never give up…You really think you know Baseball better than BC?? The man used to play for the Yankees prior to his knee issues, he was on the team with Mickey Mantle! He has been in baseball for DECADES and has forgotten more about baseball than DON or anyone else could ever hope to know…YOU PEOPLE ARE PATHETIC!!! Get over it and recognize that Atlanta is LUCKY to have the HOF Manager that we do have!! You the man Bobby Cox, forget these MORONS!!!!
Paddy
July 23rd, 2009
9:48 am
Johnny Reb…your real old school. Get rid of our shortstop because of the way he tossed his bat? You sure your real name isn’t Connie Mack or Whitey Herzog?
SuckItBennett
July 23rd, 2009
9:57 am
I see a lot of Kotchman bashing on the blogs. So, he’s not Tex at the plate, no doubt. But, he does have the highest fielding % in all of MLB and that saves some of the runs he does not provide as homers at the plate. Modern day Sid Bream but with better hands and about 10 times as fast.
Angus
July 23rd, 2009
9:57 am
Steven L.
I’m with you. While Dunn’s defense isn’t great, neither is Diaz/Church’s.
Never underestimate the value of a 1st baseman w/o an error. But if push comes to shove, and we have to go all out, I wouldn’t mind seeing a Kotchman/Prado platoon at 1st with Infante at 2nd against lefties.
I’m in agreement on McLouth also, but have no good ideas. Possibly trade for an OF with speed instead of power dropping McLouth to 8th? Maybe bat Prado 1st, McLouth 2nd? Dude just needs to start hitting.
Purple Maize
July 23rd, 2009
9:58 am
Sid Bream was a .260 hitter and only one time hit as many as 20 homers. Kotchman is better than Bream.
Michelle Wie
July 23rd, 2009
9:59 am
Screw you, Mark!
Chargehim40
July 23rd, 2009
10:00 am
I love the trade proposals on here…KJ and Ryan Church for Matt Holliday, Shafer/Medlin/Diaz for Ryan Braun, etc.
Quantity does not equal quality
mcfirst
July 23rd, 2009
10:01 am
How do you see the Braves using Hudson and Hampton when they come off the DL?
Oh wait…
wood3331
July 23rd, 2009
10:03 am
Brad,
Defense is not a sign of believing. Defense is a direct result of hustle. When everyone hustles you win. When you win everyone hustles. Pretty simple formula. Nice to see an Atlanta team playing this way night after night. Go Braves.
Roy Hobbs
July 23rd, 2009
10:05 am
This team looks much better. I still think there is a lack of power and speed, but if the improvement comes from within, well thats great.
Infante and Hudson are wildcards. Its pretty hard to say what we are going to get from them. There seem to be 4 or 5 closer/8th inning types on the market. If one could be had for a reasonable price, and we could effectivly limit our starters to needing 6 quality innings, I have to think this team could arrive at the post season very fresh.
Angus
July 23rd, 2009
10:05 am
Thank you Jeremiah. I had a long diatribe in mind myself – guess I’ll save it for tomorrow’s BC naysayers.
Sag Pants
July 23rd, 2009
10:05 am
Don, when did you get into the Hall of Fame. And how many more Major League wins do you have than Bobby Cox?
Uh huh, thought so.
hotrodding
July 23rd, 2009
10:15 am
Mitchell = gentleman and scholar.
Nick C
July 23rd, 2009
10:16 am
Everyone is missing the point. Freeman is at least 2 years away from the big leagues, and Heyward is at least one year (maybe july ‘10 if he continues to shine). Garret Anderson will be gone at the end of the year leaving diaz in left, mclouth in center, and church in right. I’m pretty certain Schafer will be the starting CF next year and mcLouth in LF (remember he is a corner outfielder by trade). Also, for all you kotchman haters out there, the guy is on the pace to win his first gold glove. Remember all that talk about earlier about how defense is one of the keys to winning it all? Yea. If the top of the order keeps it going with Prado, and even throw in kelly johnson (who is always hot at the end of the year), we don’t necessarily need *huge* numbers offensively from casey, just his glove. The biggest thing the braves hitters need to do is continue to support their pitchers, as well as everyone keep the morale up. When the offense slows down, and pitching may get tired down the stretch (which both will most likely happen), they will need morale and eachother to pick up after themselves. If they can do that they will make a strong push for october baseball. If they miss out this season, but finish strong, 2010 will look awfully nice.
GO BRAVES!
John
July 23rd, 2009
10:21 am
I agree with the poster regarding Kelly Johnson. He would be better than Greg Norton coming off the bench. Nothing against Norton, but he really does not seem like a Major League player anymore. If they are not going to trade KJ, then let him pinch hit. Other than that, I would not change anything right now. This team has been frustrating all year because it seems like they could do so much better. Hopefully, they will keep it up.
Mark Bradley
July 23rd, 2009
10:32 am
If I’ve jinxed this team, I jinxed it back in March. Can’t double-jinx the same club. It’s in the rule book of jinxing.
And the Braves just announced they’ll be on 680 the Fan next season and its FM affiliate. How do y’all feel about that?
blazon
July 23rd, 2009
10:35 am
a blogger of merit called bradley
is claiming his forecasts go badly
so modest is he
he exceeds DOB
in listing his picks that end sadly
DawginLex
July 23rd, 2009
10:38 am
If 680 isn’t anymore powerful than it used to be, I’m still out of luck. I miss riding down Nicholasville Road at night listening to WSB as clear as a bell.
I miss Skip too.
Drez
July 23rd, 2009
10:41 am
Where are the Terry Pendleton haters this week???
chemdawg
July 23rd, 2009
10:43 am
Braves won’t trade for anything now. Hudson will be back soon. They’ll wait until the offseason to deal one of the 6 rotation guys for an OF/1B (probably a LF to replace the departing GA?) and make a run at it next year with essentially the same pitching staff and a better batting order.
I Came To Rock
July 23rd, 2009
10:45 am
So the Braves are no longer part of the Project?