If you’re Marvin, you’re starvin’ for other options
You’re Marvin Williams. You were drafted No. 2 overall in 2005, and you’ve become a consistent double-figure scorer. Nobody disputes that you’re a good player, but nobody thinks you’re a great player, either.
You’re a restricted free agent who hasn’t yet been linked to a team other than your own. This isn’t a promising sign. The market for restricted free agents hasn’t been lucrative because potential suitors are figuring, “With money tight, we can’t offer much above the mid-level exception [$5.8 million], and most teams will just match that.” And nobody seems terribly interested in working a sign-and-trade for you.
This isn’t to say you don’t have a choice. Even if you don’t find another team willing to make a long-term bid on your services, you can sign a one-year qualifying offer with the Hawks for $7.5 million. And then you’ll become an unrestricted free agent — meaning no matching — next summer.
That’s not the optimum scenario. You were hoping for something like what Josh Smith got last summer — a $58 million offer over five seasons from Memphis, which the Hawks matched not long after it had been initialed. But the economy is worse in July 2009 than in July 2008, and you’re not viewed as the commodity Smith was. You’re a complementary part, not a game-changer.
The best long-term offer you’re apt to get from the Hawks is roughly your qualifying offer times five — say, $37.5 million over five years. You, naturally, think you’re worth more. So here’s what you do:
Loading ...You take the one-year qualifying offer and spend the next 11 1/2 months proving yourself. You force yourself to become more forceful. You become a key player, as opposed to the least essential starter, on what is becoming a very good team. You leave no doubt next time around.
And maybe then more teams will come calling. Maybe then the Hawks will think you’re worth more than $7.5 million times five. Then again, maybe not. Come July 2010, they could have another matter more pressing, same as keeping Mike Bibby was this summer. Joe Johnson is scheduled to be a free agent after next season, and you might again get pushed down in the pecking order.
That’s why the one-year qualifier is a gamble. But you’re Marvin Williams, and at this late date it’s probably your best bet. At least this way you’re betting on yourself.
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90 comments Add your comment
Sting 'em Buzz
July 14th, 2009
10:54 am
take the one year deal Marvin
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
10:57 am
Hey Mark, how many Hawks games did you watch in Jan/Feb before Marvin got hurt? Just admit that you didn’t watch them while Marvin was at the top of his game, and I’ll let it rest.
El Bravo
July 14th, 2009
11:03 am
You are insane. He’ll probably get the 5 year $40 mil Villanueva got and he should take it. He may even be able to negotiate an out clause after 4. You can’t turn your back on that kind of financial security. Plus he will only be 28 by the end of that contract, which is young enough for another big payday if he continues to improve. The last thing the Hawks want to do is sign him to the qualifying offer (as much as you would like that to be the case Mark). You risk losing for nothing next year and you assume that there will be better options out there. The guy just turned 23 and has loads of talent…
Get real
July 14th, 2009
11:04 am
DOn’t bother, niremental. Bradley doesn’t know $hit about basketball. He only started caring about the hawks in the playoffs when everyone was hrut but Smith. That’s why he thinks SMith is an Allstar and marvin’s a role player. what a joke
Anakin Joe
July 14th, 2009
11:09 am
Sound like you are suggesting that Marvin puts his future ahead of his team. While his agent may suggest that path, I have no idea why a fan of the TEAM would make that suggestion. With Joe, Bibby and Crawford dominating the ball and Smith “taking his”, do we really need Marvin to do his best Glenn Robinson imitation or do we need for him to continue to fill the gaps (score when needed, defend when needed, get to the free throw line when needed, rebound when needed, etc)? My guess is that Marvin is considered a great teammate and a great player to coach. If I were Marvin, that would be far more important than a “good” rating by fans and columnists.
Billy
July 14th, 2009
11:11 am
be honest nobody cares about the Hawks until the playoffs. Then when people start paying attention they get swept by the cavs.
Notty Dred
July 14th, 2009
11:18 am
I like Marvin. I think he can be all-star caliber if it weren’t for Joe Johnson hogging the ball. Marvin can average 20 and 9 by just being alive. He may be a little soft though. If I were the Hawks I’d offer Marvin 5 years, 40 million. If I were Marvin I’d take the 1 year offer and comeback hungry!
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Mark Bradley
July 14th, 2009
11:22 am
I believe that’s the holdup. Marvin Williams wants upwards of $40 million, but he hasn’t found it.
Reid Adair
July 14th, 2009
11:26 am
All of these people claiming that Marvin Williams can name his price … and yet we’ve heard NOTHING about him even talking to other teams, let alone being signed?
If Marvin was going to get a Charlie Villanueva-type offer, SURELY someone would be talking to him right now.
Chris Broe
July 14th, 2009
11:54 am
Mark Bradley is not starvin’ 4 cliches. I can’t believe he left out some reference to “show me the money”.
Nick
July 14th, 2009
11:55 am
I’m sorry, Anakin Joe. Have you watched the NBA? Team is not a word used very often.
A Tribe Called Quest
July 14th, 2009
11:58 am
Lay off Mark. The whole point of a sports writer is to reflect the status of the sports team. If the team sucks, why would the writer be positive? You gotta go with the flow. I know for a fact Mark has written about the Hawks throughout the years, but is writing more now because this team is actually…good?
Rob B
July 14th, 2009
11:58 am
Take the $40 million guaranteed over 5 years. He’ll still only be 28 or 29 at the end of that deal and will have a shot at one more huge payday if he can show he’s a star player.
Mark Bradley
July 14th, 2009
12:04 pm
If Marvin thinks he’s worth more than $7.5 million a year, here’s his chance. Take the one-year qualifying offer and go out and prove it. Come July 2010 he’ll be free of matching rights, of sign-and-trades, of the Hawks if that’s what he wants to be.
RWebb
July 14th, 2009
12:08 pm
At this point in your career,make the best long deal with the hawks and run with it. Do not allow greed to cost you millions of dollars.
GeeMack
July 14th, 2009
12:09 pm
If the hawks lose marvin I don’t think it affects the team at all. I like Marvin, but I think he’s better suited coming off the bench as a 6th man. I think if we could somehow trade him to Portland for Joel Pryzbilla. We could really up grade our team. This will help solve portlands gap at SF and give the hawks a defense rebound center that can block shots. Marvin solves no glaring need on this team (rebounding and interior defense) are the Hawks problem.
Mark Bradley
July 14th, 2009
12:12 pm
I wouldn’t trade Marvin for Przybilla, GeeMack, but I confess I’ve often thought he’d make a terrific sixth man — a scorer off the bench in the frontcourt, which is something the Hawks do not have.
ATL. HAWKS 101
July 14th, 2009
12:15 pm
Hey Billy, speak for yourself.
GeeMack
July 14th, 2009
12:24 pm
Mark
Do you think the Hawks solve any of their problems by bringing him back (interior defense and rebounding). If they don’t solve those issues, then were essentially the same team that had trouble in the first round and got sweep in the 2nd last season. Heaklthy or not the 2 teams thats beat us the last 2 seasons have both gotten better. Older, but better.
Mac
July 14th, 2009
12:25 pm
Marvin must have a really big family, all of whom turn him into another Julius Erving on this blog. I think what Mark is suggesting is that Marvin step up his game and that if he does, it’s good for the Hawks and good for Marvin. It’d be like getting a new, better player.
Mark Bradley
July 14th, 2009
12:26 pm
My view of the Hawks: Joe and Josh are the two best players; Joe and Horfy are the most valuable; Horfy and Bibby are the glue guys. That doesn’t mean Marvin’s a bad player — he isn’t — but I see him as the least essential starter. If he weren’t here, he’d be missed. But any of the other four would be missed more.
Mark Bradley
July 14th, 2009
12:31 pm
Marvin’s a good rebounder, GeeMack, but he’s more a perimeter defender than a shot-blocker. (That’s OK; small forwards aren’t supposed to be Marvin Websters.) But I’ll submit that what you saw in the Cleveland series wasn’t the real Hawks. Horford, Johnson and Williams would not have played in Games 3 or 4 had those been regular-season games. Not saying the Hawks would have won the series, but I think they’d have taken a game (maybe two) with all hands healthy.
And Jamal Crawford is a substantial upgrade off the bench. As good as Flip Murray was, Crawford is better. I know Crawford was not the splashy acquisition that Rasheed was for the C’s or Shaq was in Cleveland or Vince Carter was in Orlando, but he’s a major find. And I think he’ll fit better with the Hawks than Carter or Shaq will with their new clubs.
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
12:33 pm
Bradley, come on. GeeMack said “interior defense” and you changed that to “shot-blocking.” If you think that’s all their is to interior D, why don’t we just bring Shawn Bradley out of retirement and call it a day.
Stat Man
July 14th, 2009
12:37 pm
Adjusted for the 15 year time gap:
Magic Johnson’s average NBA salary was $4.1 million
Larry Bird’s average NBA salary was $2.8 million
Assuming Williams gets a minimum of his 1-year tender, his average salary in his first 4 years in the NBA will be $5.0 million.
Does there really need to be any further argument that we are really discussing the wrong thing here?
Ron E.
July 14th, 2009
12:44 pm
Marvin should take a look at his career to this point, realize he’s only likely to get marginally better over the next 5 years, and take the 5 year offer @ the qualifying price per year if the Hawks even offer it while he can.
GeeMack
July 14th, 2009
12:51 pm
Mark
I do agree that Marvin is a very good on the ball defender, but perimeter defense has not been our weakness the last 2 yrs. I agree the J Crawford deal was an excellent upgrade. However without upgrading the interior defense well have the same challenge this year when we run into Orl, Bost, or Cle in the playoff. Also Mark what is the next realistic step for the Hawks with a healthy team? A few wins in the 2nd round or the ECF?
dooley
July 14th, 2009
12:52 pm
Mark, what was the real reason we couldn’t get a sign and trade done with chills? It’s obvious that he doesn’t want to play in atl anymore.
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
12:55 pm
And I question anyone who claims to know who is the “least essential” starter on the Hawks. Basketball is a team sport. You can’t just look at stats and skill sets and say “Player X is the least essential player.” Who would you say is “more essential” to the Houston Rockets? Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, or Shane Battier? If you look at stats, it’s McGrady. If you look at the toughest player to replace positionally, it’s Yao. If you look at pretty much everything else, it’s Battier. I wouldn’t say any one of them is “less essential” than any other.
And how do you measure “essential?” By regular season performance? By playoff performance? Oh wait, this is Mark Bradley we’re talking about. During the NBA regular season, he was more interested in the Braves offseason moves. My mistake.
(And the Marvin Webster reference pretty much confirms my suspicion that you tuned out from the Hawks after the Nique-Bird shootout in ‘88 and didn’t tune back in until 10 weeks ago.)
Seriously, Bradley. Just go back to writing about baseball. You don’t seem to understand that basketball isn’t a sport that can be analyzed by watching 15 games, reading the box scores, and looking up a player’s measurements. You’re supposed to be a journalist, or at least a pseudo-journalist. Just in case Rick Sund is stupid enough to listen to you, you owe your readers the intellectual integrity to admit it when you’re talking based on superficial glimpses rather than thoughtful analysis.
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
12:57 pm
And I question anyone who claims to know who is the “least essential” starter on the Hawks. Basketball is a team sport. You know, NOT like baseball. You can’t just look at stats, measurements, and short scouting reports and say “Player X is the least essential player.” Who would you say is “more essential” to the Houston Rockets? Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, or Shane Battier? If you look at stats, it’s McGrady. If you look at the toughest player to replace positionally, it’s Yao. If you look at pretty much everything else, it’s Battier. I wouldn’t say any one of them is “less essential” than any other.
And how do you measure “essential?” By regular season performance? By playoff performance? Oh wait, this is Mark Bradley we’re talking about. During the NBA regular season, he was more interested in the Braves offseason moves. My mistake.
(And the Marvin Webster reference pretty much confirms my suspicion that you tuned out from the Hawks after the Nique-Bird shootout in ‘88 and didn’t tune back in until 10 weeks ago.)
Seriously, Bradley. Just go back to writing about baseball. You don’t seem to understand that basketball isn’t a sport that can be analyzed by watching 15 games, reading the box scores, and looking up a player’s measurements. You’re supposed to be a journalist, or at least a pseudo-journalist. Just in case Rick Sund is stupid enough to listen to you, you owe your readers the intellectual integrity to admit it when you’re talking based on superficial glimpses rather than thoughtful analysis.
woody
July 14th, 2009
1:03 pm
Excuse me. What are you talking about? What exactly is the subject of this blog? I am a caveman and all this is new to me.
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
1:03 pm
And I question anyone who claims to know the “least essential” starter on the Hawks. Basketball is a team sport. You know, NOT like baseball. You can’t just look at stats, height, and short scouting reports and say “Player X is the least essential player.” Who would you say is “more essential” to the Houston Rockets? Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, or Shane Battier? If you look at stats, it’s McGrady. If you look at the toughest player to replace positionally, it’s Yao. If you look at pretty much everything else, it’s Battier. I wouldn’t say any one of them is “less essential” than any other.
And how do you measure “essential?” Do you count just the regular season? The playoffs? Both? Oh wait, this is Mark Bradley we’re talking about. During the NBA regular season, he was more interested in the Braves offseason moves. My mistake.
Seriously, Bradley. Just go back to writing about baseball. Basketball isn’t a sport that can be analyzed by watching 15 games, reading the box scores, and looking up a player’s height. You’re supposed to be a journalist. Just in case Rick Sund is unattentive enough to listen to you, you owe your readers the intellectual integrity to admit it when you’re talking based on superficial glimpses rather than thoughtful analysis.
Chris
July 14th, 2009
1:06 pm
I agree with Notty. When Joe Johnson was hurt, it seemed like Marvin was scoring 20 a night. Unlike most Hawks, Marvin can both shoot and drive to the basket. I would sign him to a multi-year deal. And then I would let Joe go after next year. He is so obviously spent physically. He was phenomenal in the 2008 playoffs, but it has been down hill ever since. I pray that the Hawks don’t re-sign Joe and lock themselves into paying a superstar salary for an average (and declining) all-star.
MyView
July 14th, 2009
1:14 pm
I tend to side with Bradley. Marvin is good but not spectacular. What other Hawk starter would you you get rid of before Marvin. However, maybe the one year deal will motivate him to play like he should if he wants more than 40mil in this economy.
Rufus1
July 14th, 2009
1:18 pm
Mark
Every championships team has had a player like Marvin..between 6′7 to 6′9 who played good defense and shot the 3(Ariza, Bowen, Posey and Horry). Just because some of you can’t see his value, does not reduce his value. He does alot of little things to help us win. Without Marvin who would fill that role?
READ THIS ARTICLE ON SHANE BATTIER, It outlines the importance of a player like Marvin.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/shane-battier-and-the-box-score-590/
Marvin is like having a Good tight end..He makes your running game and passing game a whole lot better.(THEY CAN’T BE EASILY REPLACED AND THE WORTH EVERY PENNY)
steve
July 14th, 2009
1:19 pm
I think that other teams are concerned a little about Marvin’s back. They don’t want to invest in another “Brad Daugherty” type situation.
And with the cap to go down another 10-15% next year according to the league office, Marvin is crazy not to re-up at 40 million if the Hawks offer…or go to Greece. Really…
Jack
July 14th, 2009
1:23 pm
Marvin is a solid player, as anyone who followed the Hawks in the first half could tell. He was particularly key in the great winning streak that kicked off the season. Marvin’s situation is analogous to that of Joe Johnson a few years ago: a very solid role player with plus talent. The Hawks were able to land Joe. Marvin may not be as good as Joe Johnson was then, but he sure gives us great glimpses. Just watch his body and form at the games (you can’t tell on television) — there’s something special to him that you hope will one day translate into star contributions each night. Until then, he’s a solid contributor offensively and defensively.
RG
July 14th, 2009
1:26 pm
Take the 5 year deal Marvin, I know Francoer wishes he took the long term deal when he had the chance.
Rudy T channeling Lloyd Bentsen
July 14th, 2009
1:28 pm
I know Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and Shane Battier. They’re friends of mine. Marvin Williams is no Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, or Shane Battier.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 14th, 2009
1:43 pm
From Marvin’s point of view, it makes sense to take the one-year deal and test the unrestricted market next year. Yeah, the cap will supposedly be lower, but many teams have cleared out cap space for next summer’s free agent “bonanza”, and I have a feeling many of the most coveted players (LeBron, Bosh, and Joe Johnson among them) will re-up with their original teams. This will lead to teams having a ton of cap room but being unable to sign the top targets out there scrambling to pay someone, and young players with potential like Marvin will end up benefiting from that scenario, just like Charlie Villanueva has benefited this offseason.
As far as Bradley’s contention that Marvin is the least valuable starter on the Hawks… he may or may not have seen enough games to come to that conclusion, and of course there is no way to know for a fact who is more valuable than whom, but I do think his conclusion is probably correct. If these current Hawks played five full seasons, and in each of them a different current starter sat out the whole time, I think the Marvin-less team would end up with the best record. Of course that is just the opinion I’ve formed after watching this team over an extended period of time, not based on any actual stats. I will say this though, since Battier’s name was brought up — I don’t think Marvin does the so-called “little things” anywhere near as well as Battier. And that’s no knock on Marvin, just a statement about Battier’s overall contributions.
All that said, the Hawks would be wise to lock him up long-term to a deal averaging around $8 million per season. Worse players than Marvin have scored far better deals in free agency in better economic times. I think the Hawks will find as the economy improves that such a deal will make Marvin a very attractive trading piece in a few years if the Hawks choose to go down that path. And of course if Marvin realizes his potential, the Hawks are going to look like geniuses. Maybe more importantly, it is going to be very difficult to find a similar player to replace Marvin at this stage of the game in free agency, when every starting-caliber and sixth-man-caliber player has already committed to another team. In other words, even assuming Marvin is the Hawks’ least valuable player in general, it’s too late to try to replace him for the upcoming season.
BT
July 14th, 2009
1:43 pm
Take the 5 year deal and be really, really happy.
hawkfan
July 14th, 2009
1:58 pm
I think offering Williams a 1 year deal is a mistake. He’s a solid player, and it’s very likely that he will improve once again this year and post solid numbers. If he does, and the economy improves by the end of next season, Marvin will command an even higher salary than he currently seeks. In addition, he will be an unrestricted free agent after next season.
By signing a long-term deal now, the Hawks would likely save more money down the road, and they could also use him as a bargaining chip in a potential trade should another opportunity present itself.
Jo Bling
July 14th, 2009
2:04 pm
I’m not sure if Mark Bradley intended to imply that Marvin has underachieved, but that’s the impression I got. If so, that’s unfair because Marvin plays as hard or harder than anyone else on the team, except maybe Horford. He’s got tons of room to improve, sure, but he’s going to get there. His first year he was a little overwhelmed. But since then Marvin’s improved pretty much every game to the point that he’s now a rock-solid NBA player. He’s a pretty clutch player, too. As far as Battier doing more of the little things, I would hope so. He’s eight years older than Marvin and has a heck of a lot more NBA experience. If Marvin can stay healthy (my biggest concern) and take care of his oddly shaped body, he’ll be a better player than Battier by the time he’s 31.
cdog
July 14th, 2009
2:07 pm
with marvin in the fold we should then make signing a big man and maybe flip our next priority.or package a deal for odom or stoudemere if possible. we can’t go through the summer without the big man signed
Bubba
July 14th, 2009
2:08 pm
Marvin has always been a kid with a lot of potential. Shoulda stayed at UNC another year or two, but can’t do anything about that now. Marvin has improved every year. Stellar? No, but who among the Hawks is?
This is a team that’s grown together, aged together. ECF? It’s not impossible. Marvin can go a long way towards that goal. He’s got youth, talent and potential. Until I read that “Marvin singlehandedly won the game for these Hawks,” though, he’s not worth top dollar. It’s not to say he can’t. It is to say it’s time for him to stop being a kid and start playing like an adult. Youth goes away. Potential is not actual until it’s realized.
So, either take the 1 year and gamble, or take the 5 year, grow, and maybe become the next stud du jour, or wither on the vine. I’d love to see him rise to the challenge of a 1-yr deal. Let’s see what he’s really made of.
Bob Knotts
July 14th, 2009
2:14 pm
“I’m not sure if Mark Bradley intended to imply that Marvin has underachieved, but that’s the impression I got. If so, that’s unfair because Marvin plays as hard or harder than anyone else on the team, except maybe Horford. He’s got tons of room to improve, sure, but he’s going to get there.”
No. 2 overall should be a star and should be a star already. I think that’s the point.
niremetal
July 14th, 2009
2:16 pm
Najeh,
Agreed that Battier does the “little things” better than Marvin – hell, Battier is the best in the NBA at the “little things.” But Marvin does the “little things” very well and does the “not-so-little things” (like score and rebound) significantly better than Battier. I would still take Battier overall at this point, but I think Marvin is in the mold of a Toni Kukoc or Lamar Odom type of player – someone who does both the “little things” and the visible things very well.
wxwax
July 14th, 2009
2:30 pm
If Marvin Williams signs a long term deal with the Hawks, the team will have made a steal. I think this is the year Williams really finds his feet in the NBA. We saw signs of it last year. Assuming his back injury heals properly, I think the man will be a dangerous scoring threat and one of the Hawks’ most consistent offensive performers.
roan st
July 14th, 2009
2:30 pm
The real sting of picking Marvin 2nd in the 2005 draft, other than the obvious – chris paul and deron williams, is the fact that he is not even the best small forward from that draft class. Danny Granger has blew past Marvin to become the best small forward from the 2005 class. He is an o.k player who has his moments but I can completely understand why the Hawks are reluctant to offer him to much money. To date there are no other teams in the league who are interested in his services which is a strong indication of his market value. The same can be said for Childress which is why he is headed back to Greece. The Hawks are in the drivers seat in contract neogotiations which is why he must decide to take the one year qualifying offer and prove himself or take a modest deal. The ball is in his court on which direction he wants to go.
cp
July 14th, 2009
2:32 pm
I guess this is the bash Marvin summer. Yea let Marvin go so we can start Mo again and watch him get torched nightly on defense and give us little to nothing on offense. Marvin is so underrated that its almost funny. He should take the one year deal, sign with a new team next year that will make him more of the focal point on offense. Then when he is putting up better numbers than the guy we replace him with people can come on here and whine and complain about how we lost another player or underutilized another guy. It seems like every summer Hawks fans find somebody on this team to bash or want to trade. He is probably our most efficient scorer. The offense caters to our guards yet this guy gives us 14 a night with only about 10 shot attempts. Tell Woodrow to get this kid more involved. He does not take bad shots, shoots a nice percentage, gets to the line, shoots a good percentage from the line, and lets the game come to him. Get him more involved in the offense.
KevinA
July 14th, 2009
2:34 pm
What a shame to lose Chills for another year. If we lose Marvin look for the Hawks to go down hill.