The Hot Button: Should Braves be buyers or sellers?
Frank Wren was the most aggressive general manager in baseball over the winter. Barely a week passed that the Braves weren’t in the middle of some transaction, some of which were consummated (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami, Garret Anderson), some of which were not (Peavy, Burnett, Furcal, Griffey). With the Braves four games out of first place with 78 to go, there seems little chance he’ll relax now.
But maybe he should. Maybe this is one of those almost-but-not-quite seasons that would be better left to its own devices. Wren has already made a major move in landing Nate McLouth, and that was a reasoned acquisition — a team that needed a professional center fielder found one who’s under contract for four years more. But sometimes decisions made near the trade deadline are less reasoned. Sometimes you swing for the fences and wind up with …
Mark Teixeira for 365 days.
Wren, it must be said, didn’t make that trade. John Schuerholz did. And the new GM has positioned the Braves nicely for 2010 and beyond. All his starting pitchers save Tim Hudson, who’s rehabbing, are under contract for next season, and the Braves and Hudson have a mutual contractual option. They have a first-rate catcher, a burgeoning if occasionally bewildering shortstop, a center fielder and Chipper Jones. They have Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and perhaps again Jordan Schafer on the way.
The worst Wren could do now would be to risk the future on a present that mightn’t be altered by one hurried deal. Teixeira was supposed to put the Braves over the top in 2007 — heck, people were writing songs about him (see below) — and he didn’t budge the needle, standings-wise. And then, 365 days later, he was gone. And the farm system was the poorer for it.
The belief here is that the Braves will again seek to be a buyer at this deadline. Wren had to concede last season and jettison Teixeira, and no GM wants to do that two years running. Besides, this GM has much political capital invested in 2009. He has taken hits for his handling — some say mishandling — of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and what better way would there be to prove his mettle than to steal a division title?
Loading ...Sometimes, however, a division title isn’t worth the risk abject larceny would require. This team as constituted might — I said “might” — be able to finish first anyway, assuming the Phillies don’t find any pitching and the Mets don’t get healthy. Given a whole offseason to shop the free agent market and find another bat, Wren could well render the 2010 Braves division favorites.
This does, I must admit, represent a modification of my thinking, such as my thinking ever is. For two months I’ve thought, “You know, if the Braves trade Javier Vazquez for a big bopper, they might just win this thing.” But now I’m thinking, “Do you really move a starting pitcher of All-Star caliber for a corner outfielder who can’t field and who strikes out 170 times a year? Does the long-shot chance of propping up a rickety team offset the gamble of weakening yourself going forward?”
My answer two weeks ago was yes. My answer today would be no. I don’t believe that’s what Wren’s answer would be, but it’s now mine. There’s little chance the Braves will be sellers this July and every reason to believe they’ll try to buy one more player. But I’m saying they should be neither. I’m saying, just this once, they should be bystanders.
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353 comments Add your comment
gene garbage
July 9th, 2009
3:05 pm
huddy or kamakazi will go to the pen…or they’ll be an “injury”, like the one to kj, to one of the other starters when huddy gets back. you know, give someone a lil rest, so to speak.. by then we’ll be in sept. and know where we stand. i say we just wait this one out, get infante back, insert him in the outfield, bench frenchy,since we can’t trade him for anything and kinda see where we go…
which i think is towards 2010.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
3:06 pm
David from Simpsonville,
That would be Matt Kemp. And, he’s available…at the right price.
bravesfaninmetsland
July 9th, 2009
3:07 pm
I actually clicked that Youtube link. There’s 2:20 of my life I’ll never get back. Almost makes me happy Tex isn’t on the team anymore
Sheff's Chefs
July 9th, 2009
3:07 pm
There’s no way Furcal will ever play in Atlanta again, plus if the Dodgers are going to deal Matt Kemp they’re going to make a move for Doc Halladay, not Vazquez.
I’m not sure I agree with your rankings of the starters, Michael. Lowe is struggling right now, but he tradtionally does struggle mid-season before settling in over the long haul. With his resume, he deserves to be ranked above both Hudson and Kawakami for now. No one knows how good Hudson will be and Kawakami has been just as inconsistent as Lowe, without history on his side.
1. Vazquez
2. Hanson
3. JJ
4. Lowe
5. Kawakami
WC: Hudson
They should try Jason Heyward in RF for a few weeks.
vabrave
July 9th, 2009
3:09 pm
I completely agree Mark, I think it’s time to write off this year and look to 2010.
I believed at the beginning of the year Vazquez would be more reliable than Lowe. Vazquez is too good to give up, and the way I’m reading and seeing things, he doesn’t want to leave Atlanta either. The team now is “decent,” not what we all want/wanted, but it’s “decent.” With Infante coming back at the end of this month, that will bolster the depth of the team.
If I was Wren, I wouldn’t trade Vazquez or Escobar for anyone that is just a rent-a-player or someone that isn’t Pujols, Fielder, or that type of a big name guy. Wren should wait until the offseason and acquire someone like Holliday. Then the team will keep its stout pitching, have a decent offense, and keep the farm from eroding away. I don’t see the point in trading away one of the best pitchers/shortstops in the league for something that might not happen this year.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:10 pm
Paul- I wasn’t suggesting that the Braves go with a 6 man rotation, I wanted to see where everyone was lining up in terms of who the better SP’s are. I honestly felt like much of the board would have Lowe near the bottom of that list, given that he forgot how to pitch in late April. And I read your post about Huddy going to the pen. I think when the playoffs roll around, you want your best guys starting games. And if the Braves slip into the wildcard, they will likely open with a 5 game series against LA, 3 of which will be in the Ravine. Do you want Huddy or KK pitching that game? Huddy is the clear choice in my book. If you don’t want to trade Lowe b/c of the “image” it creates, then unload KK. Someone mentioned earlier that we could have signed Abreu with that salary (wish we would have) Do we care that much about our Japanese pipeline anyway?
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
3:12 pm
Zach……….Uh, do you remember the state of our starting pitching going into this past off season? Frank Wren had to “overpay” for Derek Lowe. He helped provide stability to our rotation from the very beginning of Spring Training. Dude is a workhorse who NEVER gets hurt. Tommy Hanson’s emergence in the Majors was not counted on for this year. Plus Tim Hudson wasnt expected back until late August.
While Derek Lowe has struggled somewhat as far as ERA is concerned the past month……he has provided pivotal innings and been dependable as a starting pitcher. Imagine our rotation without Derek Lowe to start the year?
I’m confident that Lowe will turn it around. I’ve seen him struggle in Boston and Los Angeles at times……only to see him turn it around late in the season and go on a pitching tear.
FALCON JOSH
July 9th, 2009
3:14 pm
I think we trade Kris Medlen before we trade Javier Vazquez. I also think it would be very funny if we could send French boy to the Rangers for A. Jones. French boy loves his batting coach there(even know he hasn’t tought him anything). I know this won’t happen but I can dream.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
3:14 pm
Sheff’s Chefs,
I agree that Matt Kemp is worth more than Vazquez, BUT if the Dodgers lose out on Halladay, then it’s a slight possibility. But the truth is, the only real deal that’ll bring Kemp to ATL is:
Jair Jurrjens for Matt Kemp.
I don’t think that’ll ever happen, even though, I, for one, would support it.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:16 pm
Sorry, I meant “slip into the NL east title” not “slip into the wildcard”. Obviously the WC won’t come from the NL east this year.
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 9th, 2009
3:20 pm
Keep It Real. I agree but one addition is second. Prado is a defensive liability at second but I think he is a good utility guy. Infante will be the second baseman. Also, I think Medlin needs to be added to the untouchable list. As for Chipper, totally agree. Now would be a great time to send him to Boston. They need help and have plenty of pitching. As for JF & KJ, maybe KC would take them. If Boston wants JF to sweeten some deal then do it.
Nova Scotia Steve
July 9th, 2009
3:22 pm
Im a little worried…I think our only shot at the play-off this year may be by winning the Division…which would not be a bad thing or anything…There’s just so many teams we have to jump in the wild-card race so far…
First we need to get back to the .500….It seems like its been forever since we’ve been there….
He started it...(again)
July 9th, 2009
3:22 pm
I agree with ken. Not signing Andrew is turning out to be a costly mistake. They could have signed him to a major league contract and then cut him if it did not work out.
Now they’ve traded away several promising prospects, for a so-so CF, to replace the supposedly major league ready Schafer who doesn’t seem very bright at all.
Andrew would not only have contributed offensively, but we likely win a game or two more because of his defense. He would have been someone that maybe could have talked to Escobar as well since he was the only other player Bobby Cox saw fit to pull during a game.
The Braves need to make some changes to their system as they keep drafting and “developing” the same guys over and over again, while getting rid of the guys who can play. They are not a team that reflects ALL of it’s market. It is not 1970 anymore and they need to get with the program. They will not win again until they do…guarantee it.
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
3:22 pm
Michael…………we have to get to the play-offs first.
Remember, it’s about getting maximum usage of our roster. Our problem isnt starting pitching. Adding Tim Hudson to the rotation isnt going to improve our team that much. Our two needs right now are OFFENSE……and……..not over using Soriano and Gonzalez. Having Hudson pitching in short relief would alleviate the workload of Soriano and Gonzalez. Our short relief would improve without having to make a trade.
With the emergence of Martin Prado playing 2nd base……inserting Infante in right field would address the lack of offensive production at the right field position. Again, without having to make a trade.
Braves management can make decisions as to who to pitch in the rotation come play-off time. However, we have to get to the play-offs first. Inserting Tim Hudson into the rotation and banishing Kawakami to the bullpen isnt going to help the Braves make the play-offs. My proposal keeps the status quo in the rotation while strengthening the short relief corps.
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 9th, 2009
3:27 pm
MB, just think how active this would be if the Braves were even rumored to be making a deal.
Can You Believe Some Braves Fans?
July 9th, 2009
3:28 pm
Jair Jurrjens for Matt Kemp.
I don’t think that’ll ever happen, even though, I, for one, would support it.
All Together Now! Johnny Hazeltine Is A Dumb Dumb!
Trade a starter who is likely to be the top of your rotation for a decade for a guy who hasn’t had consecutive great seasons? You do not give up great talent for merely good talent. Idiot.
UNCBrave
July 9th, 2009
3:28 pm
CORRECTION….Andruw Jones has 14 HR’s in about 50 games with the Rangers…Trade Jo Jo Reyes and a prospect for ANDRUW
Tami
July 9th, 2009
3:32 pm
Unless the Braves are offered an absolutely unbelievable exchange for Francoeur – one that no one should say “no” to – for another RF who can hit & has the throwing arm and the fielding of Francoeur, I too think they should try being bystanders this time and see what happens. It couldn’t hurt to try. And, if the team shockingly manages to win the NL East in the process, Wren would look like a genius in the process.
Escobar Rocks
July 9th, 2009
3:33 pm
Jair Jurrjens for Matt Kemp would be a great trade for the Braves. But the Dodgers have plenty of young pitching so they would never do it.
Hillbilly Deluxe
July 9th, 2009
3:33 pm
MB, I agree with you that starting pitching is worth its weight in gold, especially come October. Since I been watching baseball going back to the early 60’s I can’t count how many times I’ve seen a hot pitcher shut down the most potent of lineups.
If’n I had anything to say about it, and I don’t (you’ll never hear me use the phrase “we” when referring to a professional sports team), I’d be a buyer but a very cautious one. If I couldn’t pick up a fairly solid player at a decent to low price, I’d just go with what I had.
Escobar Rocks
July 9th, 2009
3:35 pm
“Unless the Braves are offered an absolutely unbelievable exchange for Francoeur – one that no one should say “no” to – for another RF who can hit & has the throwing arm and the fielding of Francoeur”
You do realize that Francoeur is going to be released at the end of this season. They would take whatever they can get for him just to get rid of him and not have to pay his salary.
UNCBrave
July 9th, 2009
3:37 pm
Francoeur has a big arm but he doesn’t even DIVE for balls anymore…Send him down, trade him, or DFA
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
3:38 pm
Once again, don’t fall into the trap of loving your own players so much, that you can’t see past the end of your nose. Matt Kemp is also a great talent. He would give the Braves that right-handed hitting outfielder for the now and then.
Plus, it’s obvious that the Braves can acquire pitching. Look at this past offseason.
In two years, you’ll be wishing the Braves had had the guts to make a move like this.
Beldar
July 9th, 2009
3:40 pm
We should sign Brian Jordan and put him in right field. Anything to get him off tv would be fine with me.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:43 pm
Paul- Not sure why you think KK wouldn’t flourish in the pen. Also, not sure why you think Infante would flourish in RF. As I said earlier, the Braves don’t need another high average, low power bat in the lineup. If you want to tinker with the lineup, then you must add a power bat. Relying upon several .300 hitters to get 3 consecutive singles in an inning to score a run or two is not a long-term winning strategy unless you’re the 80’s Cardinals playing in Busch stadium. When Huddy comes back, we’re going to have one of the most expensive bullpens in the NL. Its a no-brainer that you trade one of the banished SP’s and their salaries for a bat. The question that this board has yet to settle is which SP to unload, not whether or not one needs to be unloaded.
Wes
July 9th, 2009
3:45 pm
Noah- “very few teams would touch Lowe’s contract”
On the contrary, not a SINGLE team would take that contract. That’s why no one offered him the deal we did to begin with…….and based on his performance this year………
Escobar Rocks- You don’t NOT trade Lowe just because we just signed him. We won’t trade him because no one wants him.
Wes
July 9th, 2009
3:48 pm
“Juan Pierre throws like an 8 year old”
Because Garrett Anderson is a regular Vlad Guerrero with that cannon
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:49 pm
Beldar- You’re a genious. Aren’t there any more Carry’s out there that can do the post-game show instead of Brian Jordan? Heck, aren’t there any more Carry’s that Sportsouth could hire to call the games? I miss Skip Carry, Pete Van Wieren and the old crew.
REF
July 9th, 2009
3:49 pm
“Kawakami has been just as inconsistent as Lowe, without history on his side”
I would say Kawakami has been very consistent since Mid-May, giving up more than 3ER only once.
May 22 – 8IP 0ER
May 27 – 5.2IP 3ER
June 2nd – 7IP 3ER
June 8th – 3IP 3ER
June 13th – 5IP 2ER
June 19th – 6IP 2ER
June 24th – 3IP 0ER
July 3rd – 4.1IP 4ER
July 8th – 6IP 1ER
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:50 pm
What does Skip Carry do now?
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
3:53 pm
Michael………..if you were to move Kawakami to the bullpen…….what role would you have him pitch in the pen? I just dont see him being a 7th or 8th inning guy. He allows too many baserunners to be used in short relief. Kawakami is the kind of guy who grinds out 6-7 innings. He’s deliberate and needs lots of innings to stay shape.
On a team that needed a spot starter or a long relief guy….then Kawakami could excel. However, the Braves do not need a spot starter nor another long relief guy to join Medlen and Acosta in the pen. Those are the reasons why I feel that Kawakami being moved to the bullpen would be a mistake.
Infante is not a singles hitter. He has gap power who gets his fair share of doubles. His offense would be a DRASTIC improvement over Francoeur.
A little power (Omar Infante) is better than none (which is what Francoeur brings offensively).
Wes
July 9th, 2009
3:57 pm
Paul Lentz- well said
chris
July 9th, 2009
3:59 pm
We need a big bat but the best thing we’ve had going for us this year is Javy..Dont’ trade him..jeez…dump the dead weight we already have in the field such as JF and id even offer Blanco or Schaeffer. How about seeing what Cleveland would counter offer with for one of their big guns. We need a bat! but we dont need to destroy a pretty respectable pitching staff. Lowe is just going through a tough spot during the season, javy, and jair have been lights out for the most part as has Hanson. Kamakazi man has been decent as well. We have what it takes to win THIS year if we can just consistentely hit and stop making so many dang stupid mental errors in the field i.e. ESCOBAR! Great move putting Prado on field..should have been done sooner. What would it hurt to move Diaz to right and instead of platooning him with GA play em both. couldnt hurt and would be an upgrade from JF…He just looks pitiful at plate and we dont have time for him to go down to the minors again this year to learn how to hit major league pitching.
Lennie G
July 9th, 2009
3:59 pm
Yeah, lets move Kawakami to the bullpen. I’d love having a quality starting pitcher making over 8 million a year wasting away in long relief…..
corey
July 9th, 2009
4:00 pm
the braves should stay where they are. all i hear everyone say is lets when the division. who cares about the division world series are the only thing that matters and there is no move to make this year to get us there so lets just wait until the off season and see what comes avaliable.
John
July 9th, 2009
4:02 pm
I think if they convince Bobby Cox to not play the players in big slumps (Frenchy, KJ) and go with the hot players (Diaz, Prado) ther may be no need to make any moves. The Phils, Mets and Marlins are beatable with what the Braves got, IMO.
I’d also work Blanco into the lineup more, if I were Bobby Cox.
AZBravoFan
July 9th, 2009
4:02 pm
The difference between this year and 2007 is that the Braves have some pitching this year. In 2007 Teixeira couldn’t put them over this top because they couldn’t get people out. This year if a Tex-type hitter were available, it would absolutely make the difference in putting the team over the top.
Richard
July 9th, 2009
4:07 pm
The Braves should be bystanders. Trading Javier Vazquez would be a huge mistake not knowing what Hudson is going to be like and Derek Lowe continuing to struggle. Gonzo and Soriano give us one of the best back-ends to a bullpen in the majors, so trading them would be taking steps backwards.
There is no reason to become sellers because our farm system is still stocked with talent. I’m so tired of all the talk that our talent in our farm system has “dried up”. We got an incredible deal in acquiring Nate McClouth, as we still have our top prospect in the organization although Schafer did struggle early on.
The Braves are still in it and still have a chance to win the division the way we are. If not, we’ll be better off next year and after having a spring to evaluate Hudson, maybe we can make some moves for next season.
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
4:17 pm
To clarify: I don’t think the Braves should — or will — give up on this year. What I don’t think they should do is try to make more out of 2009 than is really there. One big bat might indeed swing the NL East, but it also might not. (Remember, Teixeira arrived in 2007 and hit very well, and it made no difference.) My advice, not that anyone needs it, would be to sit tight and let this season play out. If you win, fine. If you don’t … well, you’re set up for 2010 and you won’t have lost anything in the way of manpower.
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
4:17 pm
AZBravoFan………totally agree with your 4:02pm posting. This year’s Braves pitching is so much better than 2007’s was. Chipper and Smoltz also got hurt in the 2nd half of that season.
I just dont see the Braves being able to acquire that slugger to play right and bat clean-up because one is simply not on the trade market. That is why I suggested a number of moves that could be made “internally”, without having to make a trade, that could improve the Braves.
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
4:20 pm
And to answer the question about David DeJesus of Kansas City from a while ago: He’s hitting .255. In his best season he hit 12 homers. He’s more of what the Braves have too much of.
Poopy Pants
July 9th, 2009
4:29 pm
Anyone who would trade an all-star worthy pitcher like Vazquez for an injury-prone player like Kemp is an idiot.
Everyone needs to relax. If we just be patient with Jason Heyward and Frederick Freeman we’ll be fine. Trading away our stellar starting rotation for a “2 year or less rental bat” is stupid and laughable
Atticus
July 9th, 2009
4:54 pm
Mark, this team has MUCH better pitching than the year with Tex.
The bottom line, when the score 4 runs, they win, when they score 3 they lose. Another bat would make a HUGE difference given this pitching staff.
Atticus
July 9th, 2009
4:56 pm
Agreed on Kawakami, he wouldn’t make a good reliever and I would have to check but I would guess he has been a starter his whole career.
Shane
July 9th, 2009
5:06 pm
To make this sound realistic if i was Frank Wren i would do this. For one the indians need one outfielder to go with Choo and Sizemore, they have Matt Laporta who they think isnt ready. The braves could trade Kris Medlin and for Laporta if the Indians are willing. Andruw Jones is on the rise trade Jeff Francouer for him (but the braves will probably have to buy out or pay some of his contract) in hopes the great hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo can fix him (in hopes he will find his groove and become what he was made out to be). With jones they will get the key number 4 hitter they need and next year they can sign him to the bigger contract that he will want.
C. Mccan
1b Kotchman
2b Prado
SS. Escobar
3B. Chipper
Lf. Matt Laporta
Cf or right. Mclouth
Rf or center. Andruw Jones
Michael
July 9th, 2009
5:30 pm
Shane, pls move that last post to the “For guys who only watch a couple games a year” board.
Gimme a break. Andruw Jones is the “key number 4 hitter they need”? And you think Matt Laporta is a better solution in left than our current platoon which features one, if not the best, hitter against lefties in the NL? Diaz is also on fire right now and some people think this is his break out year (despite productive seasons in the past). Yeah, lets just bench him and stick Matt Laporta out in LF??
Brooks Conrad | All Days Long
July 9th, 2009
5:32 pm
[...] The Hot Button: Should the Braves be buyers or sellers? | Mark Bradley By Mark Bradley One thing the Braves do need to do is find a way to keep Brooks Conrad on the field. The man flat out plays the game the way it is meant to be played. I think with Infante coming back soon, Prado playing his behind off and now Conrad … Mark Bradley – http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/ [...]
brave UK
July 9th, 2009
6:02 pm
Whilst I think the recent moves mean we will be a better team in the second half, I think we need to sell, as the chances of winning this year are low to almost none. The teams ahead of us are going to improve by deadline too, and with several teams wanting Holliday the teams that don’t get him are likely to overpay for the next best thing and thats Vasquez. With the chance to get a good positional player for him, we should go full out and trade Chipper and Soriano for young talent, and payroll flexibility for next year and beyond.
Braves fan in Nebraska
July 9th, 2009
6:35 pm
leggomyego – I wasn’t confused by the > symbol nor your saying good pitching is better than good hitting. I agree, it is. I said the rocket surgery portion was the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Unless, as MB said, you meant it as a joke, then it is hilarious. Take a chill pill and go re-read my post and you’ll see that I wasn’t questioning the logic, just the rocket surgery part.
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
6:45 pm
Trade Chipper, eh? Can’t see that happening.