The Hot Button: Should Braves be buyers or sellers?
Frank Wren was the most aggressive general manager in baseball over the winter. Barely a week passed that the Braves weren’t in the middle of some transaction, some of which were consummated (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami, Garret Anderson), some of which were not (Peavy, Burnett, Furcal, Griffey). With the Braves four games out of first place with 78 to go, there seems little chance he’ll relax now.
But maybe he should. Maybe this is one of those almost-but-not-quite seasons that would be better left to its own devices. Wren has already made a major move in landing Nate McLouth, and that was a reasoned acquisition — a team that needed a professional center fielder found one who’s under contract for four years more. But sometimes decisions made near the trade deadline are less reasoned. Sometimes you swing for the fences and wind up with …
Mark Teixeira for 365 days.
Wren, it must be said, didn’t make that trade. John Schuerholz did. And the new GM has positioned the Braves nicely for 2010 and beyond. All his starting pitchers save Tim Hudson, who’s rehabbing, are under contract for next season, and the Braves and Hudson have a mutual contractual option. They have a first-rate catcher, a burgeoning if occasionally bewildering shortstop, a center fielder and Chipper Jones. They have Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and perhaps again Jordan Schafer on the way.
The worst Wren could do now would be to risk the future on a present that mightn’t be altered by one hurried deal. Teixeira was supposed to put the Braves over the top in 2007 — heck, people were writing songs about him (see below) — and he didn’t budge the needle, standings-wise. And then, 365 days later, he was gone. And the farm system was the poorer for it.
The belief here is that the Braves will again seek to be a buyer at this deadline. Wren had to concede last season and jettison Teixeira, and no GM wants to do that two years running. Besides, this GM has much political capital invested in 2009. He has taken hits for his handling — some say mishandling — of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and what better way would there be to prove his mettle than to steal a division title?
Loading ...Sometimes, however, a division title isn’t worth the risk abject larceny would require. This team as constituted might — I said “might” — be able to finish first anyway, assuming the Phillies don’t find any pitching and the Mets don’t get healthy. Given a whole offseason to shop the free agent market and find another bat, Wren could well render the 2010 Braves division favorites.
This does, I must admit, represent a modification of my thinking, such as my thinking ever is. For two months I’ve thought, “You know, if the Braves trade Javier Vazquez for a big bopper, they might just win this thing.” But now I’m thinking, “Do you really move a starting pitcher of All-Star caliber for a corner outfielder who can’t field and who strikes out 170 times a year? Does the long-shot chance of propping up a rickety team offset the gamble of weakening yourself going forward?”
My answer two weeks ago was yes. My answer today would be no. I don’t believe that’s what Wren’s answer would be, but it’s now mine. There’s little chance the Braves will be sellers this July and every reason to believe they’ll try to buy one more player. But I’m saying they should be neither. I’m saying, just this once, they should be bystanders.
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353 comments Add your comment
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
2:09 pm
Up until about a week ago, I was in favor of making a trade to improve our offensive woes. However with the emergence of Martin Prado playing second and Matt Diaz starting to heat up……..I feel that we MAY NOT NEED to make a trade.
1. With Omar Infante coming back after the All-Star Break, inserting him in right field would DRASTICALLY improve the offensive production from the right field position. While Infante will never be a 30 homer a year kind of guy…..he is a .300 hitter who can hit a lot of doubles. He doesnt strike out a lot and Bobby can use him to hit and run.
2. With Infante being inserted in right……..that would allow Bobby to stick with the Garret/Diaz platoon in left.
3. Moving Tim Hudson to the bullpen to pitch in short relief when he comes back (just for the rest of this year) would make the Braves short relief corps EVEN STRONGER. Tim Hudson has the mentality and stuff to pitch in short relief. Hudson could be used to get a 2 inning save on nights that Soriano and Gonzalez need to rest. That would allow the Braves to not worry about overworking Soriano and Gonzalez. Just imagine how POWERFUL the Braves bullpen would be if Soriano and Gonzalez could close out one game…….while Hudson comes in to close the next game? Or if Soriano and Gonzalez are coming off back to back appearances and the Braves need a 2 inning save, then they can turn to Tim Hudson?
There is no question that Tim Hudson is a better starter than Kawakami. However if Kawakami is sent to the bullpen, then he becomes virtually useless. He’ll end up pitching as much as Kris Medlen (because the Braves starters consistently go 6-7 innings every night). Having Hudson pitch in short relief would allow the Braves to get production from Kawakami while improving our short relief corps without having to make a trade.
If the Braves cant make the trade for a slugger to play right and bat clean-up……then why not make MAXIMUM use of the players that we do have? If Francoeur was benched, then that would allow Bobby to insert Infante in right, thus improving the offense. Late in games, Bobby could insert Francoeur in right while Infante moves over to left.
On days that Chipper need a rest, if a right hander is on the mound, Prado can move to 3rd while Conrad plays second. If a left hander is pitching, then Prado can play 3rd, Infante 2nd, and Francoeur can play right field on days that Chipper needs to rest. Diaz/Garret will play depending on the pitching match-up.
The point is that Infante and Prado being able to play multiple positions would give the Braves great flexibility. While this line-up will not hit a lot of homers, it can hit a lot of doubles for a decent average.
leggomyego
July 9th, 2009
2:10 pm
Juan Pierre throws like an 8 year old girl. Everyone in the league knows you can run on that guy. You sure you want that on your team?
Stat Man
July 9th, 2009
2:13 pm
Lowe & Frenchy for a top flight OF (with at least 2 years of contract left). Braun comes to mind, but the Brewers (despite being desperate for a SP) would never go for that.
Thomas
July 9th, 2009
2:14 pm
For all of you who wnat to trade KJ and Frenchy, who do you think would take them? If I’m the GM of any of the other clubs, I’m not touching those two clowns. The only way to get rid of KJ or Frenchy is to out right cut them.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:14 pm
leggomyego- You don’t say “Everyone in the league knows you can run on that guy” when you’re talking about an OF. Maybe a P or a C, but not an OF. Just sounds dumb. Pierre is a bad idea all around, not withstanding his 8-yr old girl arm (which might affect 3-4 games a year)
The_Superhoo
July 9th, 2009
2:15 pm
wth is this new Braves page format? ugly as sin, and has articles from June as headlines…
Stat Man
July 9th, 2009
2:15 pm
BTW – were the Braves owners on Obama’s supporter list??? If so, maybe he will throw some of that stimulus money our way like he is to all his other supporters!
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:17 pm
Braun is the centerpiece of a team that is already better than Atlanta. Why do people think they would trade him for anyone? They won’t. That would be like Atlanta trading Chipper in the late 90’s or the Mets unloading David Wright, it’s incomprehensible. Lets work on making the board a bit more realistic.
Noah
July 9th, 2009
2:19 pm
Braves have 3 starters on pace for well over 200 innings and KK isn’t far behind.
leggomyego
July 9th, 2009
2:19 pm
Braves fan in Nebraska: This… “>”… is a ‘GREATER THAN SIGN.’ It means, Pitching… and i’ll go slow… is GREATER THAN… Hitting. I think ya’ll may have covered that sign in 5th grade math class, but I ain’t so sure about you boys in Nebraska. As for the batting average thing.. and i can’t believe i’m forced to explain this either…
If Hitting is GREATER THAN pitching, then the numerical averages of the hitters would exceed .500, because they would be getting hits more than 50% OF THE TIME. Really, you don’t get this stuff? Ya’ll heard of that ‘math’ stuff up there in Nebraska?
Ah, Rocket Surgery… as for this, the etymology of that phrase is classified. And so is the definition of etymology. But you’ve got a computer. If you ever figure out how to use it, you can do what we can ’surfing the net’ and find the answer to that little jewel yourself.
And if you ain’t heard… Juan Pierre throws like an eight year old girl. Redundant yes, but i’m beginning to feel the need to over-clarify.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:19 pm
Despite our outstanding pitching, I’m just not sure the Braves will make a run this year. After the sweep of PHI, we went up to DC and lost 2 of 3 to the worst team in baseball. If this Braves team was really hungry for a title, that wouldn’t have happened. The Braves team of the “streak” won the games they needed to win. With this bunch, its a coin toss.
Willy
July 9th, 2009
2:21 pm
BTW, the Marlins are in second place, two games back. Just saying.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:23 pm
leggomyego- Your math explanation is the worst thing I’ve read on any of MB’s blogs in several months. With your logic, I guess pitchers have dominated this game since its inception, given that no player has ever hit .500. And last year when Chipper was flirting with .400, he was still getting dominated by NL pitching because he was under .500? You’re a moron.
leggomyego
July 9th, 2009
2:24 pm
Micheal: 3-4 games a year? Really? How many times do guys round third base with the ball in the hands of a corner outfielder? 3-4 times a year? Really? Do you watch basegame games?
Atticus
July 9th, 2009
2:24 pm
Very few teams would touch Lowe’s contract.
leggomyego
July 9th, 2009
2:25 pm
Micheal: you don’t read previous posts, do you…
Matt
July 9th, 2009
2:25 pm
Ken, A good ole boy network would have given Andruw Jones another shot;) You not make to much sense my friend;-)
Braves73
July 9th, 2009
2:25 pm
Noah – My bad dude…couldn’t tell which way you were going with that comment.
Paul Lentz – I couldn’t have put it better myself. I especially agree with the Hudson deal. Bobby is notorious for “losing pitchers” in the bullpen. If Kawakami is banished to the bp we not ever see him pitch again.
rlinaug
July 9th, 2009
2:26 pm
Atticus, you’re right. And I think we’re saying basically the same thing: don’t mortgage the future for one season of hope. You and I are just disagreeing on priorities. I think this team needs to be concerned with passing the teams in its division first–you’re more concerned about the Dodgers. I think this team can pass the PhilsMarlinsMets with another McClouthlike move, even though it might not push them pass the Dodgers. I’d like to see the team pursue some other trade like that.
Wes
July 9th, 2009
2:28 pm
McCann is a lefty. He’s slow. He grounds out to the right side almost constantly, and he can’t bunt. So he’s 0-4 in the 4 qualities you look for in a 2 hitter.
Noah
July 9th, 2009
2:28 pm
Very few teams would touch Lowe’s contract.
Why is everyone so quick to get rid of good pitchers, first it was KK, now everyone wants Lowe gone. Come on he is a proven winner and on pace for his usual 14 wins, 200 innings this year, give him a chance (he leads the team in wins).
OutlawPete
July 9th, 2009
2:30 pm
MB… I would love to see a rotation of Lowe/Vazquez/Hanson/Hudson/Jurrjens… However, isn’t Hudson supposed to make $12 million next year? Unless the Braves get an increase in payroll, I don’t think this would be possible. Same thing goes with getting another bat this season: isn’t the Braves’ payroll at the max already?
Mitun
July 9th, 2009
2:31 pm
hey Mark, do you believe David DeJesus would be a fit for the Bravos?
Chop It Up All-star
July 9th, 2009
2:31 pm
Unless a deal absolutely makes sense, meaning that it not only helps the Braves this year, but helps them down the road as well, I would agree with you Mark to stand pat.
This pitching staff is as good as I’ve seen around here for a while. The offense clearly has holes, and could use a big bopper, but who you gonna get get rid of, Francoeur? Kelly Johnson? Just not much value in those two players right now. And trading away either Vazquez or Escobar would be a huge mistake.
So, in the end, again I say, we work with what we have and who knows we might catch lightning in a bottle and take the divison one year early.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:31 pm
Noah- Leading a team in wins is not a good indicator of how good a pitcher he’s been. ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s BA are much better. Lowe was great for the first 3 months and I don’t know what happened, but he’s not the same pitcher that opened the season in Philly. He is clearly the most expendable SP we have when Huddy comes back.
Pretend Hero
July 9th, 2009
2:32 pm
Great article today. I hope they dont mortgage the future for a run at this year. I dont see why they would give up thier best pitcher, who is under contract for next year as well, for a bat that wont be enough to get them past LA in the NL and certainly not enough to win it all. Giving up prospects for a wildcard shot and a first round exit would be horrible.
That said, I really think this team is a quality right handed bat and a high steals/obp guy away from being top flight. No power and little to no real speed/athleticism is killing them.
Noah
July 9th, 2009
2:33 pm
OutlawPete…exactly on hudson. If you want a bat you can’t afford to keep him and everyone else. Hudson at 12mil while Hanson will be less then 1 million and get a bat..hmmm. Plus you forgot about KK. Wouldnt you rather have KK in place of Hudson and a bat on top of it ($4 million difference would have brought us Orlando Hudson this year for instance or Bobby Abreu).
jimmya
July 9th, 2009
2:33 pm
ya`ll need to face up to it only chipper mclouth mccann escobor ross are real major league players the rest are scrubs fill ins lets just bring up the kids trade the others for one or two other major leagers get them ready for next year this one will be lost before sept FIRE WREN
David
July 9th, 2009
2:34 pm
Why do we keep throwing Vazquez’s name out there, Mark? Derek Lowe — who’s under contract for, what, four years? — should be the name we throw out. He can be a solid No. 2 starter for a team, and the Braves don’t need him. Vazquez, Jurrjens, Hanson all have ERA’s below 3, and Kawakami (I know the name isn’t right, but I don’t want to look it up right now) has been pretty solid over his last 9 starts.
Trade Lowe, get a hitter that has some power (something we lack very much), because with this pitching and a little bit of timely hitting, this is the type of team that could make a run if they make the playoffs. Add in the fact that we’ve got a solid set-up guy and solid closer, and you’re really looking at a formula for success.
Name #201
July 9th, 2009
2:36 pm
I had the same off-season opinion as Mark Bradley. Vazquez is over rated and not worth the paycheck and Andruw Jones wasn’t even worth a flier!
I changed my mind on both counts. Vazquez has been a monster and Andruw has a little something left in the tank (even though I still woundn’t want him back in a Braves uni)
How significant was the Tex-Tex-Atl trade? So significant that it is still mentioned any time that a team is asking a king’s ransom for a player. (Roy Halladay rumblings) That trade is also the poster child for a team giving away the farm for little more than a rental superstar.
Is this my opinion? Yes it is. Is it only my opinion? No it isn’t. If YOU don’t agree, then tell that to the national baseball media who keeps bringing the trade up even two years after the fact.
OutlawPete
July 9th, 2009
2:38 pm
Noah… I like your opinion, but is Orlando Hudson really a “big bat”?
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
2:38 pm
Braves73…………..thanks for agreeing with my 2:09pm posting. I put a great deal of thought into it. All those moves need to be made IF the Braves dont make a trade……that is if the Braves want to improve the team and have a shot at making the play-offs.
However two things will probably prevent that from occurring: 1. Bobby’s refusal to bench Francoeur, which means that Infante will be relegated to the bench upon his return, playing super-sub. His bat is too valuable, especially given our offensive woes, to have sitting on the bench.
2. Bobby’s insistence on using Tim Hudson as a starter upon his return. So barring a trade, Kawakami will end up being the one sent to the bullpen, which would hurt his development as a starting pitcher because he will end up pitching about as much as Kris Medlen does right now.
So instead of getting maximum use of 2 players like Kawakami and Infante……..Bobby will keep Francoeur in right and have Tim Hudson start…….thus preventing Infante’s bat from being in the line-up everyday and rendering Kawakami virtually useless.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
2:40 pm
JUST A PROPOSAL:
ATL trades Javy Vazquez and Yunel Escobar to the LAD for Matt Kemp and Rafael Furcal.
Mmm…lemme think about this…I don’t know if I like it, but I really do like Matt Kemp…
OutlawPete
July 9th, 2009
2:41 pm
Johnny Hazeltine… have you checked lately on Furcal’s stats for the season??
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 9th, 2009
2:43 pm
I don’t think Furcal will ever wear a Braves jersey again.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
2:44 pm
I’d like to see everyone list the Braves SP’s in what they feel is the order of best to worst. Feel free to include where you think Hudson will be upon his return. I think we all understand the salary implications at play here, but I feel we have a lot of disagreement on the SP talent, especially given some earlier posts about how we can’t trade Lowe.
1. Hanson
2. Javier
3. JJ
4. Hudson
5. Kawakami
6. Lowe
Pretend Hero
July 9th, 2009
2:50 pm
Furcal will never be a Brave again, but that type of speedy leadoff hitter would be a huge boost to this team.
UNCBrave
July 9th, 2009
2:50 pm
#1 Yunel Escabar is going NOWHERE..He’s the future
#2 Medlin needs to be traded b/c he will be the ODD man out when HUDSON gets back. Hudson to the rotation, Kawakami to LONG RELIEF (Medlin’s current job)
Medlin, Schafer, KJ, and Kotchman to NATS for Dunn and Johnson
#3 What about a trade for ANDRUW JONES?? He’s cheap and doesn’t play everyday. Also, he would lead the Braves in HR (10) eventhough he’s only played in 40 games..ANDRUW would fluorish back in Atlanta..
Escobar Rocks
July 9th, 2009
2:50 pm
The Braves will not be trading Derek Lowe. Teams don’t trade players that they just signed as a free agents. It is bad business. Also, Lowe is an excellent pitcher who has had a couple of bad starts. He will be fine by the end of the season.
The Braves will NOT be buying an expensive player even if they are buying instead of selling. So all of this talk of trading for Juan Pierre, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunne, etc. is senseless. My previous suggestion of trying to trade for Ryan Ludwick makes sense. He isn’t expensive and though he is struggling this year he has hit more home runs than any player other than Nate McLouth. And a struggling Ryan Ludwick is tons better than Francoeur. The Cardinals have indicated in the past that they were interested in trading for Kelly Johnson so maybe it would work.
Also, Kris Medlen should NOT be traded. He is a precious back-up if one of the starters gets injured. Do all of you suggesting that Medlen be traded for a rental not remember last year when four of five opening day starters went down with injuries. I also think Medlen is a future middle of the rotation starter. He is way too valuable to be lost.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
2:52 pm
ATL
~ Javier Vazquez – 32 years old / $11,500,000 / VORP 31.8 / WHIP 1.05 / SO-BB 5.91
~ Yunel Escobar – 26 years old / $425,000 / VORP 18.0 / OPS+ 108 / RISP .408
LAD
~ Rafael Furcal – 31 years old / $7,500,000 / VORP 4.1 / OBP .328 / OPS+ 78
~ Matt Kemp – 24 years old / $467,000 / VORP 28.0 / OPS+ 129 / RISP .289
Tough call. Would Vazquez waive his no trade clause to pitch for Joe Torre? Could Furcal bounce back? Is Escobar’s relationship with Bobby Cox unmendable? Can Matt Kemp add more power to his bat?
Nova Scotia Steve
July 9th, 2009
2:52 pm
Vazquez
Jurrijens
Lowe
Hanson
KK
Lowe was very very good early on and he just hit a rough patch…he’ll be back…
It too early to put Hanson as our number 1 guy…He’s only made 5 starts
David from Simpsonville
July 9th, 2009
2:54 pm
If the right deal were available, I’d make it. Trouble is, where can you find a .300 BA / 25-30 HR right fielder? Can you even name one? And if so, what are the chances he’s available? If you can come up with a positive answer to those three questions, then see what the price would be; and even then, don’t pay too much, don’t mortgage the next few seasons.
Keeping It Real
July 9th, 2009
2:56 pm
I have always heard that the key to any teams success is strength up the middle. The Braves are strong at catcher, pitching and shortstop. They need power, speed and defense in centerfield. McLouth is a corner fielder in my opinion and not a centerfielder.
The Braves need to acquire a centerfielder along with putting the following on the untouchable list:
Escobar
Prado
Infante
Hanson
Freeman
Heyward
Soriano or Gonzalez
McCann
Jurgens
Vazquez
McLouth
Francouer,Johnson,Hudson,Chipper(I hate this with all my heart)and Lowe should be shopped but no one will probably pick up their salaries. Norton needs to be released. They need more pop at third (especially if Chipper cannot play everyday or is traded) and first base.
Escobar Rocks
July 9th, 2009
2:56 pm
“Is Escobar’s relationship with Bobby Cox unmendable?”
Bobby has been heaping praise on Escobar after his last two games. And Escobar has been on his best behavior since his meltdown over the scorekeeper. I think Yunel will be a Brave for a long time.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
2:58 pm
IF THE BRAVES WERE SELLERS:
The team with the biggest needs in the bullpen is the Tampa Bay Rays! Who would they be willing to part with to get Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez?
Paul Lentz
July 9th, 2009
2:58 pm
Michael………Derek Lowe will rebound. He has shown over his career that he will pitch well when the season gets deeper. The Braves will be SO GLAD that he is pitching games for us in late August and September. So what if he is struggling right now? All pitchers go through rough stretches. Despite his struggles, he still goes 6-7 innings.
Also, the Braves are not going to go with a 6 man rotation. So the question when Tim Hudson comes back becomes: 1. Who do you trade?………or…….2. who do you move to the bullpen?
For obvious reasons, neither Jair Jurrgens nor Tommy Hanson are going anywhere. No team is going to trade for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery like Tim Hudson. Derek Lowe isnt going anywhere…..partically due to his contract, but also because of the effect trading him will have on attracting future free agents. It isnt like Lowe cant pitch. Kawakami isnt going anywhere either. Trading Kawakami right now would pretty much KILL any future endeavors in the Japanese market. Plus Kawakami will get better as he gets more adjusted to the MLB strike zone. He is showing signs of that right now.
So that leaves us with Javier Vazquez. There is no doubt that he has been our best pitcher. The way I see it, there isnt any available hitters on the trade market that would warrant trading Vazquez for.
So unless that miracle slugger becomes available to justify trading Vazquez………I do not see the Braves making a trade involving ANY of their starting pitchers.
Then the question becomes “who do you move to the bullpen?”. Read my 2:09pm posting for my answer to that question.
Zach
July 9th, 2009
2:59 pm
If you trade anybody to get a “big bopper” then trade Lowe. He is not worth the money and certainly should not be hailed as our ace! IMHO We will still have Jurrjens, vasquez, Kawakami, Hanson, Hudson-soon, and Medlen. That is a great great rotation!
Michael
July 9th, 2009
3:02 pm
Keeping It Real- “but no one will probably pick up their salaries”. Chipper has been a top 10 hitter in the NL almost every year for the last decade. If a team is in need of a bat and wants to make a run, he would be at the top of many wish lists. Granted, his power isn’t what it was 10 yrs ago, but teams would pay whatever they needed to pay to get Chipper in thier lineup.
Joe Webb
July 9th, 2009
3:03 pm
Mark,
Do you think it would be possible to get something for Escobar and/or Franoeur? I would like to see the Braves get a big bat, but not at the expense of our pitching.
Johnny Hazeltine
July 9th, 2009
3:04 pm
Personally, I think we are too high on Yunel Escobar. I like him. That’s about it. He’s that new wave of big shortstops, with the big arm, and a “big bat”. Truth is, he really doesn’t have that big of a bat, and, his attitude is bigger than his arm. Sure, he can be on good behavior for a little while, but how long will that last? What happens after he gets paid? I think Yunel’s biggest attribute to this franchise will be what he can get for it in return. But that’s just my opinion.