The Hot Button: Should Braves be buyers or sellers?
Frank Wren was the most aggressive general manager in baseball over the winter. Barely a week passed that the Braves weren’t in the middle of some transaction, some of which were consummated (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami, Garret Anderson), some of which were not (Peavy, Burnett, Furcal, Griffey). With the Braves four games out of first place with 78 to go, there seems little chance he’ll relax now.
But maybe he should. Maybe this is one of those almost-but-not-quite seasons that would be better left to its own devices. Wren has already made a major move in landing Nate McLouth, and that was a reasoned acquisition — a team that needed a professional center fielder found one who’s under contract for four years more. But sometimes decisions made near the trade deadline are less reasoned. Sometimes you swing for the fences and wind up with …
Mark Teixeira for 365 days.
Wren, it must be said, didn’t make that trade. John Schuerholz did. And the new GM has positioned the Braves nicely for 2010 and beyond. All his starting pitchers save Tim Hudson, who’s rehabbing, are under contract for next season, and the Braves and Hudson have a mutual contractual option. They have a first-rate catcher, a burgeoning if occasionally bewildering shortstop, a center fielder and Chipper Jones. They have Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and perhaps again Jordan Schafer on the way.
The worst Wren could do now would be to risk the future on a present that mightn’t be altered by one hurried deal. Teixeira was supposed to put the Braves over the top in 2007 — heck, people were writing songs about him (see below) — and he didn’t budge the needle, standings-wise. And then, 365 days later, he was gone. And the farm system was the poorer for it.
The belief here is that the Braves will again seek to be a buyer at this deadline. Wren had to concede last season and jettison Teixeira, and no GM wants to do that two years running. Besides, this GM has much political capital invested in 2009. He has taken hits for his handling — some say mishandling — of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and what better way would there be to prove his mettle than to steal a division title?
Loading ...Sometimes, however, a division title isn’t worth the risk abject larceny would require. This team as constituted might — I said “might” — be able to finish first anyway, assuming the Phillies don’t find any pitching and the Mets don’t get healthy. Given a whole offseason to shop the free agent market and find another bat, Wren could well render the 2010 Braves division favorites.
This does, I must admit, represent a modification of my thinking, such as my thinking ever is. For two months I’ve thought, “You know, if the Braves trade Javier Vazquez for a big bopper, they might just win this thing.” But now I’m thinking, “Do you really move a starting pitcher of All-Star caliber for a corner outfielder who can’t field and who strikes out 170 times a year? Does the long-shot chance of propping up a rickety team offset the gamble of weakening yourself going forward?”
My answer two weeks ago was yes. My answer today would be no. I don’t believe that’s what Wren’s answer would be, but it’s now mine. There’s little chance the Braves will be sellers this July and every reason to believe they’ll try to buy one more player. But I’m saying they should be neither. I’m saying, just this once, they should be bystanders.
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353 comments Add your comment
Sg
July 9th, 2009
12:18 pm
I wouldn’t trade anybody to win a mediocre NL east. If you win it and have to play L.A. or SFO and then the Sox’s or Yankees, you are probably toast. Build to win the WS in 2010 or 2011. Don’t waste anyone or any money to win the NL East in 2009. It’s just not our year without the bats in the lineup!
Now, I am thrilled with the pitching vs all the old, tired injured arms from last year. If we could make the same progress on the offense in the off-season, we are off to the races!!!
bvillebaron
July 9th, 2009
12:19 pm
Ken Who is in the Know:
Your comment about Holliday agreeing to re-up with any team he gets traded to has blown all of your credibility. That’s exactly how Boras operates right?
Bill M.
July 9th, 2009
12:19 pm
They need to sit tight, the next two weeks. If they are out of it, let the selling begin. I hate to give up pitching but Vasquez is the only tradeable pitcher. He’s usually not to good the second half of the season. They will get more for him now than during off season. It’s to point I don’t know what to do and hope FW can get it done.
Keep MGonzo, Soriano, Javy Vaz
July 9th, 2009
12:19 pm
Keep all the pitching staff…send KJ to the minors when Infante gets back (if he can go back) Don’t trade the bank for Holiday…Best thing that happened to the Braves pitching staff was Bennett breaking his hand and Prado taking over at 2nd.
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
12:19 pm
Mark, I was thinking the team might be able to get a corner OF by trading Gonzo to a team desperate for a closer
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:19 pm
And I know those aren’t sexy names but consider that they’d both be at least a 200 point upgrade in OPS in RF. That’s sexy enough for me.
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
12:20 pm
Oops my bad on posting the same thing twice
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:20 pm
And don’t trade Gonzalez or Soriano, waaay to vital to the bullpen and you wouldn’t get enough in return.
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
12:24 pm
The better teams have closers, Alabama. Generally the commodity everyone lacks is starting pitching.
Ron E.
July 9th, 2009
12:24 pm
Your whole argument is based on the Teixeira trade being bad somehow? I must have missed where it was Tex’s fault Smoltz, Glavine, and Hudson had season ending injuries last year and Hampton missed half the year. As far as I know none of the prospects we traded have been elected to the Hall of Fame yet and 2 of them were blocked by Escobar and McCann and would likely never have played for the Braves anyway.
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:25 pm
Frenchy sits at an abysmal 613 OPS.
Willingham sits at 939 from the same position and same side of the plate.
Teahen sits at 783 from the left side and has played primarily 3B this year, but can play a very good RF.
See vast upgrades for very little folks…
Marc
July 9th, 2009
12:25 pm
Bleh, my boy Ryan Spilborghs is slumping. I still think he’d be an improvement over Jeff though, he’s not an automatic out at least.
Herschel Talker
July 9th, 2009
12:26 pm
SELL MORTIMER!!! SELL RANDOLPH!!!
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
12:27 pm
Hadn’t thought about that Mark. Oh well, I guess I will have to relinquish my GM duties to my other bretheren on this blog
Nova Scotia Steve
July 9th, 2009
12:28 pm
I hope we’re buyers…but I don’t know who’s out there Atlanta could land that would provide an upgrade without giving up a lot…we can pound out trade scenarios untill we’re blue in the face…and there’s many out there who probably look like smurfs these days…but that’s not for me…I don’t believe in drumming up all these stupid ass trades…
Maybe we will stand pat…maybe it the best option!
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:28 pm
The more I think about it, the more I see Wren dealing for one of these guys. I think you can see it as well.
Cletus
July 9th, 2009
12:28 pm
Mark, any comment on Adam Jones. I know he is young but surely the Braves could package something up to entice Baltimore. I like that he is right-handed (and good).
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:30 pm
Adam Jones would be mortgaging the future. It’d probablt take Heyward or Freeman and Escobar or sumthin like that. It’s like if someone approached us about trading Mac.
John OTC
July 9th, 2009
12:30 pm
YES! You are right! I haven’t understood this talk of trading Javy. He’s been much more of an ace than Lowe.
Mark, you agree with me so you must be right. Don’t bother listening to other opinions!
STRETCH
July 9th, 2009
12:32 pm
I know this is not a complete list, but here are some key free agents after(and NOT this winter) the 2009 season.
First basemen
Carlos Delgado – I dont think so.
Adam LaRoche
Second basemen
Mark DeRosa
Placido Polanco
Brian Roberts
Freddy Sanchez – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout
Shortstops
Bobby Crosby
Khalil Greene
Miguel Tejada
Jack Wilson
Third basemen
Adrian Beltre
Chone Figgins
Melvin Mora
Ty Wigginton
Left fielders
Jason Bay
Carl Crawford – $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Johnny Damon
Matt Holliday
Hideki Matsui
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel
Coco Crisp – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Right fielders
Jermaine Dye – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Brian Giles
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero
Xavier Nady
Magglio Ordonez – $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout
There seems to be some chemistry in the lineup thats starting to shine through, dont know how long it will last. But they keep should keep Blanco, Prado and Conrad in the mix and with Infante coming back, they should get better. And Mclouth has been a welcomed addition to this lineup!
Now in 2010, insert a couple of these guys in the lineup and with a starting rotation of:
Hudson
Lowe
Vazquez,
Hanson
Jurrjens
Thats a pretty good team people!
LOOGY
July 9th, 2009
12:35 pm
No Mark’s not right he says we do nothing!. I agree stupid to trade Vasquez or Escobar. But you don’t need to. Ship a moderate package for Willingham or Teahen.
Bradley says give up, throw in the towel when we’r just 4 games out behind a team w/o a bullpen and a team w/o a rotation in a division nobody desires to win.
And the message that sends to clubhouse…wow. You think it’s hard to get players to come here now??? Nobody wants to play for a team that is complacent. IE. Pitts reaction when McLouth and Morgan were traded.
I rest my case.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
12:45 pm
A couple of people mentioned looking at David DeJesus and Juan Pierre. Neither would work in Atlanta b/c neither are power hitters. Atlanta is already a team thats dependant on 3 hits in an inning to score a run. Adding DeJesus or Pierre would only make that problem worse.
I saw a stat a few weeks ago where over the past two or three years, only 2 guys have a better average than Diaz against lefties. Can anyone confirm this? One of the guys on Sportsouth made the claim during a game. Personally, I love the Diaz/Anderson platoon in left. It works and they BOTH produce key hits when in the game.
I agree with Mark. Lets stand pat and see what this group can do. I like the chemistry on this team and the spark that Prado has created.
Michael
July 9th, 2009
12:48 pm
And if we have to trade an SP, I would not be inclined to trade Javier. He’s a rock and I want him to be a Brave for a long time. The odd men out seem to be Kawakami or Lowe.
If we get to a 5 game playoff series, I let Hanson and Javier throw 2 games each and let Jurrjens throw game 3. Lowe has become unreliable.
Ed-Covington
July 9th, 2009
12:53 pm
Wren’s (& Bobby’s) biggest mistake was trading Josh Anderson in the spring (for nothing) and trusting that Jordan would be make the transition all the way from AA and be at least adequate in CF. If we still had JA we would not be looking for another OF. By the way, any JS ytrade talk ignores the fact that he is not even playing in Gwinnett due to his wrist. Would you trade for him? He AND Brandon Jones ARE expendable now, with the trade for McClouth (and his long-term contract) and Heyard on the way. Also, Canizares is a 30+ year old career minor leaguer who has never been successful in the majors with several opportunities. He is not an option either in Atlanta or as a tradeable commodity. Leave the pitching alone unless Wren receives an offer he cannot refuse for Kawakami, Lowe, or Bennett. Wren should be pursuing a trade involving JFrench and KJ for the same thing in another organization: a former legitimate starter “needing a change of scenery”. BTW: there is nothing left in Gwinnett to help Atlanta this year; they are as pathetic offensely as the big club and their three top pitchers are already gone. They have signed two pitchers from the Indepedent League to fill out their staff. Also, I heard Brian Jordan raving about the “kid” Brooks Conrad yesterday. I really love Conrad as a player, but he is, again, a 29 year old career minor leaguer who has failed in several chances in the majors. I wish him the best and hope that his hustle and enthusiasm is contagious. Otherwise. MB, I agree with you; ABraves should stand pat. Three years ago, everyone, including me, claimed that all we needed was “one more big bat”. John S. then did the Tex trade. Tex was successful here; his numbers that season reflect that. But the ABraves still did not make the post-season. We cannot continue to hope for another Crime-Dog trade. Everyone forgets that 3 years later the ABraves could not wait to expose McGriff, his matador defense and his huge contract to Tampa in ther expansion draft.
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
12:56 pm
Nobody has mentioned JF lately. I was thinking about the Jose Contreras example. He knew he was hurting the White Sox, so he went down to Charlotte, worked things out and has pitched very well since coming back. I wish more players could humble themselves like that
rlinaug
July 9th, 2009
12:57 pm
Mark, I’ve always liked your columns, but you’ve really hit stride with the blogs–excellent, more relaxed, funnier, timely. Keep ‘em coming.
As per this particular blog, I agree with you fully. I also think the readers have a great point about trading Gonzalez for a major leaugue outfielder. That would do wonders for my beloved Braves.
ExecutiveStinger
July 9th, 2009
12:58 pm
Hey Bradley, how about Luke Scott from the Orioles? He seems like a great bat and outfielder who could permanently land Francouer on the bench. Let’s get Luke Scott!
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 9th, 2009
12:59 pm
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
12:12 pm
If Holliday has agreed to re-up with whatever team acquires him for next season, Ken has just broken some mighty big news. Because that’s a new one on me.
I think it would be news to Holliday as well.
Wes
July 9th, 2009
1:00 pm
atticus: agreed. Except who in their right mind would trade a HR hitting 1b for Medlen and Kotchman?
Jay
July 9th, 2009
1:01 pm
You flip-flop too much. It erodes your credibility and makes you appear as though you are easily swayed by the moment.
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
1:02 pm
Wes @ 1 pm- The Pirates? They will trade anybody
Wes
July 9th, 2009
1:03 pm
I’d rather hang onto Medlen and Kotchman than have Laroche
Bravo
July 9th, 2009
1:06 pm
Why in the world would you ever trade Vazquez? He’s relatively young, signed past this year? Lets look at trading Lowe, dumping his huge salary or move KK. As I’ve stated before, lets trade Lowe to the Angels in return from Brandon Wood and William Smith. Move medlin into the 5th spot of the rotation. Lets play Wood in LF until he can take over for Chipper at 3rd. And to tell you the truth, if we could possibly trade Escobar for Braun and maybe pickup a prospect along with that trade. I’d do it in a heart beat! I’d move Infante to SS once he’s back. With these moves you don’t deplete the minors and you greatly improve the offense without your starting rotation taking much of a hit. If we’re lucky Hudson comes back the take the 4th spot in Sept.
Randy J.
July 9th, 2009
1:06 pm
Braves Should be Bystanders, I don’t Think a Trade Will Help This Team, We have a Good One Already, and when Omar Infante comes Back, It will be better, and with Prado over there right Now, you can notice the difference..
Noah
July 9th, 2009
1:06 pm
Perhaps they could get someone for Gonzo?
Why would you trade one of your top 2 in the bullpen. A bad pen has been the demise of so many teams
Mark Bradley
July 9th, 2009
1:08 pm
Why, thanks, Rlinaug.
Cletus asked about Adam Jones of Baltimore, not to confused with Adam (Pacman) Jones. He’d be a great addition, but I can’t see the O’s trading him. He’s part of their future. As for Luke Scott — I think he’s an OK player, but up until lately I thought he was more a fourth outfielder. (He used to be with Houston, as you’ll recall.)
Michael
July 9th, 2009
1:08 pm
If we trade for someone, it has to be a hot hitter now. We can’t plan on bringing in a “fallen star” b/c God knows Pendleton won’t be able to fix whatever is wrong with their swing. I also don’t like the Laroche idea. I think Kotchman is a long-term solution for the Braves b/c of his defense (no errors this year) and he always hits for average. Laroche is a clown.
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
1:08 pm
Maybe Dale Murphy is still available
The Murf
July 9th, 2009
1:09 pm
Is #3 available? What about Bob Horner?
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 9th, 2009
1:09 pm
I can’t really see the benefit of moving little Meddy into a starting spot. I think he will eventually get there, even if it isn’t with us, and he definitely has the makings of a strong reliever. I’m still on the KK — train. As he adjusts to the smaller strike zone and the language barriers, I think he’s playing well and will by this time next year be absolutely clutch. He already knows more English than Yunel.
The Murf
July 9th, 2009
1:09 pm
Wow Alabama, we think alike
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
1:11 pm
Spooky Murf. Very spooky.
jconservative
July 9th, 2009
1:11 pm
Don’t trade no pitching to nobody no time soon.
If Hudson returns & is back to form – next year every team in baseball will be beating a path to Turner field. The Braves will be able to dictate terms. What is needed now is a long-range view.
leggomyego
July 9th, 2009
1:11 pm
It’s all hindsight though Mr. Convington. As much as i agree that having Josh Anderson on the club would be an asset now (before the McLouth trade), Schafe was scalding the ball in Spring Training, and by all appearances he was ready to ‘grow into’ the job, which was always his once he was ‘ready.’ Turns out the kid can’t hit or lay off the high inside fastball and as soon as he started to seriously flirt with a sub .200 ave he was sent back down to get himself right. Everyone expected him to be a little in awe of MLB pitching, and if he floated around .250 or even .240 and was still playing great defense I’m sure it would have been ok. This would have been his year to ‘acclimate.’ Same goes for KJ, who tore the ball up the second half of last season. I think just about everyone was looking at him to have a more solid, consistent, productive year at the plate and in the field, why wouldn’t he? Baseball is a wierd thing, and it turned on these boys and as they say, ‘them’s the breaks.’ Everyone wants the young talent to come up (as it seems to have unerringly done in the Braves orginization the last 20 years or so) and blow everyone away. But that’s the thing about prospects: That’s all they are until they prove otherwise…
And say what you want to about Conrad, he’s tearing the cover of the ball right now and he’s playing good defense. Why badmouth a guy who’s only been productive the whole time he’s been up? Some guys bloom later than others, some guys bloom and fade, and some not at all. That’s the fickle mistress that is Baseball.
Bravo
July 9th, 2009
1:12 pm
Everyone is forgetting one thing.. the braves largest need is power. You have to have that someone that can change a game with one swing of the bat. Look at Pujols, is St. Louis’s offense any better then the Braves? I don’t think so, but they do that element we don’t.. A GAME CHANGER!!!
AlabamaBrave
July 9th, 2009
1:12 pm
rlinaug = suck-up
I keed! I keed!
Greg Paulus
July 9th, 2009
1:12 pm
ryan braun would be great but no chance. we’re screwed either way. if the phils get halliday then they will win it. and nothing we do will matter.
Bob horner stayed hurt
July 9th, 2009
1:12 pm
The Murf…ummmm Bob Horner stayed hurt…but he had a sweet compact swing and could pull ANYBODY’s fastball..but…he stayed hurt…one of only 14 or so players to hit 4 homers in a game…
Noah
July 9th, 2009
1:12 pm
If we get to a 5 game playoff series, I let Hanson and Javier throw 2 games each and let Jurrjens throw game 3. Lowe has become unreliable.
Hanson throw 2 games in a 5 game series. Are you serious. Since when did he become the ace. I love the guy but not this year. Lowe has had a tougher stretch so you forget how great he was until recently and that he will be good again. JJ has been probably your best pitcher
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 9th, 2009
1:13 pm
Chipper for Buchholz & Lugo, Javy & Kotchman for Nelson Cruz & Hank Blalock