The Hot Button: Why the Hawks still must pluck a PG
It became clear the moment Mike Bibby arrived from Sacramento: This is how it’s done. You find a point guard and put the ball in his hands and live happily ever after. And that’s why, in a draft deep in nothing except point guards, the Hawks should take one with the 19th pick tonight.
Let’s assume the Jamal Crawford trade is consummated, and let’s even assume the Hawks re-sign Bibby: Even then, there’d always be a need for a distributor, and no team knows it better than the one that passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2004. It took the Hawks until February 2008 to find a real point guard, and once they did they were never the same.
With Bibby on the floor, they were transformed. They were creative. They were properly positioned. They were, for lack of a better word, good. They took the Celtics to Game 7 that spring, and they were even better in 2008-2009, winning 47 games and a Round 1 series. They know now what they should have known all along: Unless you have a superstar capable of making plays for others — LeBron, D-Wade, Kobe — you can’t win without a point guard.
There will be good ones available tonight at No. 19. That’s guaranteed. Eric Maynor of VCU could be there, and so could Ty Lawson of North Carolina. Either would be fine with me. Maynor is a better shooter, but Lawson runs the break expertly.
I prefer those two, you should know, to Jeff Teague of Wake Forest, who’s more a combo guard than a pure point and who was awful — seven turnovers — in the Deacs’ NCAA loss to Cleveland State. And I don’t like Jrue Holiday of UCLA at all. He’s not really a distributor, and he didn’t have much of a freshman season in a Ben Howland system that usually makes stars of its guards. (Think Jordan Farmar, Arron Afflalo, Russell Westbrook, Darren Collison.)
And what of Brandon Jennings, who bypassed college to spend a year playing in Europe and whom Chad Ford of ESPN.com has coming to Atlanta (link requires registration) even with Maynor and Teague available. Well, Jennings is a major talent, but I’d like a bit more polish in my point guards. Lawson played three collegiate seasons, Maynor four.
Rick Sund said this week, “We’re looking at every position,” but the upside on smaller men at No. 19 seems greater than that on bigger guys. Tyler Hansbrough will be a solid pro at best; B.J. Mullens didn’t average double figures in the Big Ten.
Loading ...Apart from Blake Griffin and maybe Hasheem Thabeet, there’s a significant question regarding every big man in this draft. The point guards are simply better this year, and there are so many more of them.
The Hawks can subsist nicely with Al Horford at center the next five seasons. They cannot maintain their newly high standard without a young point guard coming down the pipeline. There may never be another opportunity to find one this good so low in the draft.
And we should prepare ourselves for that new paradigm: The Hawks aren’t apt to be in the lottery again anytime soon. They won 47 games last season. With Crawford, they should win more than 50 in 2009-2010. But a pick at No. 19 isn’t so much a pick for today as for tomorrow. At this moment, tomorrow looks bright for the Atlanta Hawks. Taking the right PG in Round 1 tonight will make tomorrow brighter still.
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142 comments Add your comment
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
12:24 pm
JJM,
I’m going to say it was both.
J.J.M.
June 25th, 2009
12:25 pm
gcsu12 I think that would be chaos. Each player wants their playing time. Having Crawford,Flip,BIbby, and who ever we draft might not work out and you know coach woodson never uses his bench well, so that might not work.
Eric
June 25th, 2009
12:25 pm
How many DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARDS does Horford have Bradley. How many times has Horford led the league in Block Shots. STOP IT!!!!
Bishop
June 25th, 2009
12:26 pm
I say draft Hansbrough for frontline depth and just sign Jarrett Jack as a free agent.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
12:30 pm
That’s not a bad plan, Bishop, but the trouble with that is you can never be sure what a free agent is going to do. And the Hawks already have a heap of free agency issues as is.
J.J.M.
June 25th, 2009
12:32 pm
2 wasted 1st round picks 3 including Boris Diaw(im not gonna include Josh Childress) I just hope the hawks get this pick right tonight and develope the player.
Jimmy
June 25th, 2009
12:36 pm
What are the chances the hawks make a move to get hinrich tonight (rumor is the bulls are shopping him). He wouldn’t be a bad fit. Also what are the actual chances we try and get Alston? Love your columns by the way
Matty Ice-man
June 25th, 2009
12:37 pm
Why don’t the Atlanta Hawks trade Marvin Williams for a top 10 pick and then take Johnny Flynn-PG/Syracuse. Flynn compares as a poor man’s Chris Paul and the Hawks have been criticized for not taking Chris Paul and taking Marvin instead. Why not “complete the circle” and trade Marvin for a point guard who will play well with speed and creativity like Johnny Flynn – seems pefect to me. We could then use the #19 pick to get a “BIG” like BJ Mullens to develop.
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
12:41 pm
Eric,
How many DPOY awards does Camby have? Okay, how many years before he started winning them? And finally, how close did that get him to an NBA championship? Precisely.
Awards are nice for individuals. Prime example: Cleveland had this past year’s Coach of The Year, and Most Valuable Player…on the same team. Seems they didn’t make it to the NBA Finals….so much for those awards, which are no doubt sitting behind glass, without so much as a glance from their owners.
You can keep your 33-year old award winning backup center. I’ll keep Al Horford, who has only been in the league 2 years, and is going to get better.
J.J.M.
June 25th, 2009
12:42 pm
Matty Ice-man I asked a question like this. They cant do nothing with marvin till july
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
12:43 pm
Heard Hinrich may be headed for Blazer-land. Man do those guys know how to put a team together. We kinda can’t afford Hinrich at this juncture (unless we let both Bibby and Flip walk), as he is getting paid roughly what Crawford is getting paid.
Sure would be funny to see those two playing together again, as one was drafted pretty much right after the other in Chicago. I can’t say I wouldn’t like to have them both on the roster, but I don’t see it happening, and if we took a pg in the draft, the poor guy wouldn’t see the light of day.
Dan
June 25th, 2009
12:44 pm
I really like Lawson’s game and could not believe the early draft boards showing him so far down the list, apparently due solely to his height. If a guy’s got game, which Ty does, screw the measurements. I think scouts sometimes hamstring their own calculations focusing on how tall someone is or how high he can jump. The calculus should be: Can he shoot? Can he pass? Can he play the game of basketball at a high level?
I can only hope we end up with Lawson or perhaps Maynor (who I’m not completely sold on if only because of his more scoring mentality which with Crawford now, I’m not sure we need).
El Bravo
June 25th, 2009
12:44 pm
Mark, I disagree with your believe that we can draft a PG and resign Bibby. The Spirit will not pay Crawford $9 mil per to come off the bench and split minutes with a rookie PG. I believe that getting Crawford seems like a clear indication that we intend to re-sign Marvin, Murray and Za Za. Bibby is the odd one out. It all seems to point at us drafting a rookie PG and we will probably search for a serviceable backup PG in free agency. As much as you want to exile Marvin he seems to be here for the long run (which I think it’s a good thing). Marvin has improved each and every season and he appears to be the player with the best chance to have a breakout season next year. I like the fact that we have openned up some payroll to make these moves happen. The big question is, where do we get another big from to rotate at center? (at least one that Woody will play…)
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
12:45 pm
Trading Marvin for the #10 pick won’t work.
Trading Marvin after July 1st for the rights to the #10 pick WILL work, but there probably has to be more details involved. Not sure I want to do that anyway, as a player picked that high for us would also have to be somebody we intend to have in the playing rotation IMMEDIATELY. Heh…have you not met Woody?
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
12:49 pm
I like Lawson the best of the pg’s that are likely to be available. However, Toney Douglas is NOT a 19th pick, but man how far will he slip?
Can the Hawks get him in the second round? If we were able to land Douglas and Hansborough in this draft, what a steal. No it does not answer the long term pg situation, but you would be getting two seasoned players with great attitude and work ethic. What team doesn’t need a Battier/Harpring type player?
Dan
June 25th, 2009
12:49 pm
Trading Marvin for anything less than the second pick would be a serious mistake. Who is on the draft board that is a guaranteed position player? Blake Griffin, maybe Thabeet, maybe Rubio. You’ve got to look at it like that, because that’s what you’re giving up. I also think that Marvin still has tremendous upside. In a few years, the stars of this team may very well be Marvin, Josh, and Al, in no particular order.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
12:50 pm
Thanks, Jimmy.
And I think the Hawks would rather keep Bibby than pursue Rafer Alston. (Who’s older than Bibby, by the way.)
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
12:51 pm
Big Ray- why then did Smith, Childress, Williams and Horford all get major minutes as rookies? Acie was getting minutes until he got hurt, and Solo got more minutes than he really should have. Dude, I am tired of that argument about Woody. Not saying he doesn’t have flaws, but really that is not one of them. Get a new drum to beat.
DP
June 25th, 2009
12:51 pm
Ian Thomsen of SI.com has the Hawks taking Hansbrough at 19 and also has DuJuan Blair dropping to 21 because of concern about his knees.
I think Blair would be a great fit with the Hawks if he is available at 19. He is a monster on the glass and has a big enough body to bang with centers. He dominated Thabeet head to head in college. He could replace Pachuilla in the 4-5 rotation with Horford and Josh Smith.
I don’t think any of the point guards who will be available at 19 are going to see any playing time if Crawford is here and Bibby is resigned. As we’ve seen with Acie Law, they don’t get any better sitting on the bench.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
12:51 pm
As much as we rip on Marvin — and I’m as guilty as anyone — how many guys in this draft are guaranteed to average double figures next season? Five? Three? One?
Matty Ice-man
June 25th, 2009
12:52 pm
JJM, so what is the deal with that? Marvin has one year left on his deal but we cannot do a sign/trade until July? I don’t understand the way the NBA works – very media unfriendly – especially the draft where these teams take players and then you find out the next day they are going to different teams. The NBA needs to clean this stuff up to make it more enjoyable for the fans.
I really think the winning move for the Hawks would be to move Marvin in a sign/trade for a premier rookie point guard. If Woody won’t play him, then he needs to go….
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
12:53 pm
I really liked DaJuan Blair at Pitt. I love big bodies who play hard. But he won’t be as a big a body at the NBA level, and I’m not sure he can play beyond 10 feet.
Matty Ice-man
June 25th, 2009
12:55 pm
Mark,
don’t you think moving Marvin for a Point Guard that has star potential would be the correction of error made three years ago?
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
12:55 pm
Also, you would only sign and trade Marvin for a established starter in the league. He is worth a lot more than a pick in this weak draft. I do consider Marvin to be available, mostly because of the injury history. You may get Toronto to bite, because they would expect to lose Bosh at the end of the season anyway. But, then the Hawks would be faced with trying to resign Joe and Chris in the same offseason.
Matty Ice-man
June 25th, 2009
12:56 pm
DaJuan Blair will be like Corliss Williamson out of Arkansas many years ago – Williamson was a thick body who dominated college with an NBA thickness and physicality but was only 6′7″……in the NBA, you just cannot play the “4″ or the “5″ effectively at that height.
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
12:57 pm
Matty Ice-Man-
I know you asked Mark, but I would say absolutely not!
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
12:57 pm
Daniel,
Who did we have to play in front of Smith, Childress, and Williams, especially after Harrington left? Come, tell me which solid veteran it was. I’ll wait.
Now, who did we have to play in front of Al Horford? Zaza? Is he better than Horford? Still waiting.
Acie got good minutes his rookie year. You are right about that. Who were our other pg options? Lue and Anthony Johnson. There is your answer. Now, once Bibby got here, Law’s minutes went down immediately, even when he was healthy. Add Flip, and add a brilliant preseason for Acie (in which he was healthy and his shot was on), and explain why he didn’t get minutes early on? I’ll wait for that one, too.
Acie got hurt LATER, and it mattered not to Woody UNTIL he lost Bibby to sickness/injury. Acie would play well in one game (wherein he got decent minutes), then average 3-5 minutes several games thereafter.
It’s not my drumbeat, it’s Woody’s. Get a set of earmuffs, because you’re going to be hearing more of the same while he’s here, unless we lose veterans at key positions.
Jimmy
June 25th, 2009
12:57 pm
Marvin is a big part of this team. When went on that huge run at the beginning of the season Marvin was the one hitting big threes and getting big rebounds. He was hurt throughout the playoffs and that clearly hurt us. He literally just turned 23. Don’t trade Marvin!!! The hawks nucleus of Joe, Marvin, Josh, and Al is a very good 4. We need to surround them with serviceable players like Jack/Hinrich, and Hansborough
J.J.M.
June 25th, 2009
12:58 pm
nooo hes a restricted free agent like josh smith was last season
DP
June 25th, 2009
12:59 pm
For those talking about trading Marvin Williams for the #10 pick in a weak draft, ask yourself what he would do playing for Cleveland. You think they wouldn’t covet a 6′10″ guy who can shoot it and guard guys like Lewis and Turkoglu? We know Williams can play, at #10 in this draft it’s probably a 50-50 chance of getting a complete bust.
mac
June 25th, 2009
1:00 pm
Think we can use chilldress as a nice trading chip?
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:00 pm
Mark- several players in this draft may average double figures next season, but they will be “empty” points, like Durant’s average. If you are the only scoring on a crummy team, is not the same as being a significant contributor on a playoff team.
Big Ray
June 25th, 2009
1:02 pm
Mark,
Good point. And I really don’t see any point guards in this draft that I’m CERTAIN will be NBA stars. I don’t think we need to value ANY pick that highly in THIS draft.
I still don’t think Blair will fall to us. Teams have been actively checking out his doctors and inquiring about the knees. He’s gonna be another Jason Maxiell or Paul Milsap type. He can’t play beyond 5-10 feet right now, but that can change. Dude has a motor and a good work ethic. But I doubt he’ll fall here.
Even then, if he and Hansbrough drop, which do you take?
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:05 pm
Big Ray-
You answered your own question. Woody plays the better players. As the team improves, you don’t play second year pg’s who still haven’t developed any leadership abilities. Oh, you are not one of those guys that is sure that Salim will turn into Vinnie Johnson in Minnesota are you? Oh yeah, Acie is going to be Byron Davis in Oakland too right?
I have some nice beachfront property in OK for you too.
J.J.M.
June 25th, 2009
1:05 pm
Im out…finna check out this fight night round 4 and watch the draft later. everybody have a nice day.
mountain_jim
June 25th, 2009
1:06 pm
I also say use Bibby’s money on a backup big and sign a better defensive PG (Jack), who I imagine would love to come back to Atlanta, while drafting the PG of the future.
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:07 pm
Big Ray- the Hawks play in the NBA, not the D-league in case you were wondering.
El Bravo
June 25th, 2009
1:11 pm
I find it totally amazing that so many people want to trade a 23 year old, 6-10, small forward with a sweet stroke, 3-point range, good defensive skills, unselfish, and 14-8 averages the last two seasons for an unknown commodity on this draft. The guy is on his 3rd season as a pro (he missed most of one with the hand injury) and he continues to improve. Drafting Marvin ahead of Paul and Deron was a mistake but getting rid of him now for an unknown player from this draft would be an even bigger mistake…
Mac
June 25th, 2009
1:12 pm
Wes Unseld was a 6′7″ center with bad knees. He held his own and then some against top centers..
DP
June 25th, 2009
1:13 pm
Blair has a huge wingspan, a huge body, good feet and a great work ethic, and he plays much bigger than his height. If he could score out beyond 5-10 feet and didn’t have the questions about his knees he would be a top 5 pick. But we’re talking about #19. You’re not going to get anybody there who doesn’t have some holes.
Najeh Davenpoop
June 25th, 2009
1:14 pm
Of the point guards listed, Jennings is easily the one with the most talent and the most upside to me, even if he is not quite as NBA ready. The only reasons not to take Jennings are if the Hawks think that a) he will not contribute immediately and you need a guy who can, and b) Woodson will not be able to develop his raw talent. If the Hawks decide to pass on Jennings for either of these reasons, Maynor is my guy, closely followed by Lawson.
The thing that worries me, though, is that Acie Law was a more polished, more experienced, more accomplished point guard prospect than ANY of these players, and he still failed under Woodson. So there is a part of me that wonders whether Woodson is capable of developing point guards at all. Why wouldn’t the same thing happen to Lawson or Maynor that happened to Acie?
I can see the temptation to zero in on point guards with the Crawford trade occurring and the re-signing of Bibby possibly up in the air. But I would still rather see the Hawks take the best player available regardless of position. With Marvin’s impending restricted free agency, the Hawks could easily fill the point guard hole by sign-and-trading him even if they don’t address it via the draft.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
1:16 pm
Great question, Big Ray. I liked Hansbrough and Blair very much as collegians, but I see Hansbrough as being a more solid pro. He has a position — PF — and I see Blair as being a tad undersized to play the 4. I don’t think Hansbrough will ever make an All-Star team, but I could see him giving a good team the kind of production Udonis Haslem has given Miami over the years.
And Blair’s wheels worry me. And apparently I’m not alone in that.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
1:19 pm
And to answer Matty Ice-Man’s question of a few minutes ago, I’d say the Hawks have already taken steps to correct the mistake of 2004. I don’t think they can get a small forward of Marvin’s caliber — he hasn’t been an All-Star, but he hasn’t been a bust, either — at No. 19. So I’d say no to the trade.
I’d draft a PG tonight and see what happens with Marvin in free agency. I think there’s a good chance, given the economy, he’ll end up back here on a one-year qualifying offer. But I’ve been wrong about pretty much everything my entire life.
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:21 pm
Najeh- The biggest problem that I have with Jennings is that I haven’t really seen him play any kind of competition. I am not saying that you aren’t right about him, he is just a huge question mark. I don’t think it is fair to look at Acie’s lack of development as purely a Woodson issue. I also don’t agree that Acie has more polished or accomplished game than either Lawson or Maynor. Yes, he was a senior and Wooden award winner, but he did not play in a tough conference or in a lot of meaningful games. I am not trying to knock Acie’s collegiate credentials- they are very good. But, I don’t see Lawson or Maynor as lesser players. Honestly, I like Lawson better.
Mark Bradley
June 25th, 2009
1:22 pm
I don’t know that Acie was more polished than Lawson, who played at the highest level of college basketball for three seasons, and maybe not even Eric Maynor.
But I did love watching Acie as an Aggie. Those Big 12 games on ESPN — Durant was at Texas then, and KU had essentially the team that would win the 2008 NCAA title plus Julian Wright — were must-see TV.
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:23 pm
I still keep asking where Toney Douglas is going to go? I have seen him as high as 21 to going undrafted.
Daniel
June 25th, 2009
1:25 pm
UhOh- I am thinking like Mark. Najeh- nevermind then I must be wrong.
Halsey
June 25th, 2009
1:26 pm
I’m just worried that Ty Lawson is another Jacque Vaughn or Mateen Cleaves: Great college PG’s that many thought were safe bets to be good NBA players, but are/were ‘just guys’ in the NBA. The Hawks should just take the guy with the best combination of talent and intangibles on the board, regardless of position. An NBA team is lucky if a pick as high as 19 turns into even a solid starter, so why limit the pick strictly based on need.
yellarjacket4life
June 25th, 2009
1:27 pm
How come nobody is mentioning Toney Douglas from FSU. He is not the scorer like many of the others PG’s mentioned here, but the guy can play. He is a lock down defender, which is something this team has sorely missed from the PG position. He can handle the ball, pass, and he is one of the quickest PG’s in this draft. The kid is also a hometown product and his brother Harry plays for the Falcons. He was probably the most exciting player to watch in the ACC this year. He had me drinking the FSU kool-aid last March.
Ariose
June 25th, 2009
1:30 pm
If we draft a PG ,Mills would be best. Internatioal Experience, played for many coaches, and won’t fold under Woodys pressure. He WILL attack unlike Acie.