Face Off: How the Braves can — repeat, can — win the East
They were 9 1/2 games back at the All-Star break in 1991, not even in second place. I know, it was a different time and a better Braves team, but still …
Can it happen? Sure it can.
The Braves are four games out of first place. They’re lucky to be that close, but sometimes you get lucky. They’ve played better these past six days, and there’s a chance they’ll play better in July than they did in June. Because they can pitch, and starting pitching has an aggregate effect. Good innings prop up a team, just as bad innings drag it down. Look what’s happening to the Phillies, who have almost no pitching.
Philadelphia is 27th among 30 big-league teams in ERA, and a team cannot win a division that way no matter how hard it hits. The Braves are sixth in ERA, which means they can. They’ll have to hit a little better and hope the Mets, who remain the most gifted team in the NL East, don’t get healthy. (Carlos Beltran just joined Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado on the disabled list.) But there’s a way the Braves can leverage some pitching to find a bat before the trading deadline.
I’ve said it before: Tim Hudson is the hidden key to 2009. He’s expected back in August, and if he’s throwing well in July rehab the Braves could part with one of their starters in exchange for, say, Adam Dunn, the Washington outfielder. Which starter? By process of elimination, Javier Vazquez. Which sounds crazy, given that he awoke Tuesday leading the National League in strikeouts. But hear me out.
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are the future. (Also the present.) Can’t trade them. Derek Lowe is the ace. Can’t trade him. Kenshin Kawakami is new and makes too much money. Can’t get much for him. Hudson is coming off an injury and could be a free agent at season’s end. Can’t get much for him, either. But Vazquez? A durable 32-year-old under contract through 2010?
You could get something for him.
Most teams looking to dump players at the deadline are hunting prospects, but a veteran pitcher could be enticing to a team lacking everything, which describes Washington. Almost no contender is ever shedding pitching in July, but the 2009 Braves could become the exception. They might even throw in Jeff Francoeur as a package-sweetener.
Think of it this way: Dunn to hit behind Chipper Jones and ahead of Brian McCann, Hudson in for Vazquez to keep the innings-eating going. The Braves have already upgraded once with Nate McLouth. One more major move and the hitless wonders could well surge past the pitchless Phils and give the Mets a run to October.
I know, I know. This hasn’t looked like a playoff team since the Ides of April, but it has hung around. As long as it pitches, it can keep hanging. One more bat and the serious climbing can commence.
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198 comments Add your comment
JayDub
June 24th, 2009
4:16 pm
Vazquez for Dunn is an idotic thought … let me count the ways:
1 – no contender trades quality pitching, you say. There is a reason for that!
2) The Nats have quality young starters. They would not want Vazquez.
3) The Nats signed Dunn to bring people to the ballpark, they do not want to trade him.
4) The Braves are in no position to take on Dunn’s contract. We could have signed him in the offseason. We didn’t want him then, we don’t want him now.
5) Frency often costs us at the plate and often saves us in the field. Dunn would save us at the plate and cost us in the field.
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
4:16 pm
Having seen this offense work (and not work) through 66 games, I’m thinking Mr. Wren’s opinion of Adam Dunn might have evolved.
gboh
June 24th, 2009
4:20 pm
I keep missing something. Why is the name Adam Dunn continually floated as a desirable commodity? He hits .240-.250. He strikes out constantly. He hits home runs when it doesn’t really matter. Oh, and has anyone seen him play in the field? Yikes! Mark, I just don’t see what value he would bring to the Braves. If you’re going to be a team based on pitching you better have a good defense. Dunn would make it decidedly worse no matter where you put him. Not a good deal at all. I wouldn’t even swap Francoeur straight up for Dunn.
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
4:23 pm
Maybe because Adam Dunn has 18 home runs and 50 RBIs on a last-place team.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:25 pm
JayDub
Please allow me to retort:
1) They do if they have a stockpile like we do and other glaring needs–the Sawx were entertaining offers for Brad Penny but nothing suited them.
2) Most are in the low minors or unproven (Strausburg)–not to mention they have decent offense w/out Dunn. OR, ever heard of a 3-way trade? Braves-Rangers-Nats makes pretty good sense
3) Zimmerman has emerged as the star of team–not to mention the above-mentioned Strausburg will be here next season.
4) Dunn makes w/in $1.5 million of Vazquez’s 2009 salary
5) if you believe this, then you’re dumber than I thought…
Phil
June 24th, 2009
4:27 pm
Frank Wren is indeed a buffoon. And because of that, he turns to Cox for every decision on player personnel, I would bet anything on that. This roster was set by Cox.
Wild Bill, you are right, our outfield is the worst in baseball.
Ray Pugh, you say our hitting is the problem. You think TP is doing a good job? Who hired TP? Who has NOT fired TP? Cox. It all comes back to Cox.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:28 pm
Let’s see:
1) a .400 on base percentage, the most important offensive statistic in the game
2) proven, consistent power in a variety of different home ballparks. Currently 18 bombs this year
3) doesn’t just hit homeruns: he’s got 10 2bs so far this year
4) Oh, and did I mention 55 walks (!). His eye is one of the best in game.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:29 pm
gboh go back to the entertainment boards where you can argue over John and Kate + 8, something closer to your comprehension level…
Horner's Corner
June 24th, 2009
4:31 pm
Pugh – FW saw a defensive liability who strikes out too much because that’s exactly what Dunn is! In addition, FW didn’t have the budget available to sign him. Did you notice that no other contending organization made a strong effort to sign Dunn this off season? His price tag was WAY too high for his skill set. Now I will admit that I was very disappointed the Braves made little effort to get either Ibanez or Abreu. Both players were available late in the off-season, both were available at a far cheaper rate than Dunn and neither had shown a statistical decline over the last few years that was as blatant as G. Anderson’s.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:33 pm
Bobby Cox didn’t hire TP you rube, the front office did. Sure, Bobby may be in his corner, but if the FO had some balls, they would send TP packing. But still, does TP physically swing into those grounders for Francoeur?
Swaga1
June 24th, 2009
4:34 pm
Ray pugh-
The reality is that bobby is too loyal to players who do not perform. U have to “manage” the bullpen and from my recollection we had a decent bullpen, its just that bobby waits too late until a pitcher gives up the lead to make a move…and u don’t even have to be 5 yrs old to see that.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:38 pm
He could have if he didn’t sign KK and Anderson, but I understand why he did what he did. I am arguing along w/ Mr. Bradley in favor of a trade for Dunn. BTW, we’re gonna have so much $$ off the books after this season that Liberty would agree to fork over a few more million.
ATL FAN
June 24th, 2009
4:39 pm
Over Adam Dunn’s career he has averaged 30-35 homers and 90-100 RBI. Hmmmmm… Anyone think Frenchy will come close to that? And while Frenchy does have a terrific arm in right field, our issue isn’t about holding others from scoring; it’s about us being unable to score. It’s over for this team when trailing after the 6th!
The only issue I see with Dunn is his contract. Currently in a 2 year deal worth 20 mill? No way the Braves will take that on. Their approach? Look for another cheap way to tweak the team.
Phil
June 24th, 2009
4:40 pm
You think the front office hired TP without getting consent from Cox? Don’t think so. All Cox has to do is say the word and TP is gone. We do agree that TP needs to be sent packing.
Mike
June 24th, 2009
4:40 pm
Wow Ray. Lot’s of posts. Perhaps when the unemployment money runs out we’ll hear less from you.
The Braves have problems in the pen and at the plate. Are you happy now? I got that from “people in the know.”
Rick in Big D
June 24th, 2009
4:44 pm
Let’s see we got a pitcher in Javier Vazquez that pitches early 5th day and goes deep into games and strikes out lots of folks. He is under contract. This is a guy you don’t trade
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:47 pm
Regardless of my current employment status/living arrangements in my parents’ basement/Adam Dunn poster on the wall of said basement, it does not negate the crux of my argument.
Swaga1
June 24th, 2009
4:50 pm
signing KK was the biggest joke of the offseason..we could have signed Dunn with that money…KK says he puts his soul into his pitches, i guess he doesn’t have one because his pitches aren’t worth crap…the braves should have just kept glavine for that spot, they throw about the same speeds. Dunn would b a major upgrade over Franceour anyday….The Franceour argument is over and his career is pretty much over as well. Package him with a couple of glad bags to carry his Bulls#$t.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
4:52 pm
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coach k
June 24th, 2009
4:54 pm
hell yea all we need is a mgr, hitting coach and 1 bat that can blast us 24 home runs second half, love this team, start Prado ant 2nd NOW and package Kelly and Frenchy and go get a bat! Go Braves
Mitch C
June 24th, 2009
4:58 pm
Mark, as much as I’d like to have Dunn, even with all his strikeouts, I would be very afraid to part with Javy Vazquez.
This isnt 2001, where Smoltz came back from TJ surgery, and our rotation had stellar Hall of Fame pitchers in our rotation like Glavine and Greg Maddux, and solid Kevin Millwood. Jair and Lowe have been very good, but besides them, what do we have? Vazquez has been a major key to us staying as close as we’ve been. Trading Vazquez causes two problems for us. One, it takes away the solid starting pitcher in our rotation, and two, Hudson is a free agent after this year. Is it really wise for Frank W to give Huddy, say, three or four years, 15 mil a year, coming off TJ surgery? Yes, I know John S did it with Smoltz in 2001, which is precisely what he and Tommy Glavine fought about during their contract dispute in 2002. It’s just a very risky proposition. Then there’s the chance that we could trade Javy, bring Dunn here, and Hudson might leave anyway, so we would be down potentially two starting pitchers, and start next year with Lowe, Jair, Tommy Hanson, and who knows? KK cant be counted on as anything more than a fifth starter, maybe. Our rotation would have a huge hole in it if FW does what you suggested.
I see your position, and I’m trying to look at it from the perspective that you did, but I just think that given all the variables, such would be too risky a proposition.
Mitch
Pete
June 24th, 2009
5:05 pm
Mark, the chances of the Braves winning the East are about the same as are my chances of a date with Jennifer Anniston…..slim and none. And Slim just left town.
joe
June 24th, 2009
5:36 pm
Ah, the intelligence. Only someone who is a future reader and of supreme intelligence can predict that the Braves have no chance of winning the division when they are 4 games behind with 90+ games to go. I wish I was as smart as that.
Tommy Wildfire Rich
June 24th, 2009
5:52 pm
Why did Bobby hang that slider to Jim Leyritz in the ‘96 WS? Everyone knew that Bobby Leyritz couldn’t catch up to a fastball, yet he throws a slider to a slider-speed bat. Damn you Bobby Cox, why did you throw a slider?
Pete
June 24th, 2009
5:53 pm
joe: “Ah, the intelligence. Only someone who is a future reader and of supreme intelligence can predict that the Braves have no chance of winning the division when they are 4 games behind with 90+ games to go.”
Joe, its not anywhere near that simple. If the Braves were 4 games behind just 1 team, then its a whole different story. But they are behind 3 teams, and its so much harder passing 3 teams than it is passing just 1 team.
Tommy Wildfire Rich
June 24th, 2009
5:54 pm
Bobby, why didn’t you watch the ball hit into the outfield in the ‘91 WS? You were running on the pitch and let Knoblauch decoy you at 2nd base. You should have surely scored on that double in the gap. Damn you Bobby Cox, you should have picked up your third base coach when you were approaching 2nd.
Pete
June 24th, 2009
5:59 pm
Tommy, youre point is well taken re: Bobby didnt throw the slider or run the bases. But the reverse is also true: he never hit any 3 run homers, or pitch the Game 6 shutout to win the Series…or did he? Yet he received the accolades when they won 14 titles without him doing any of that, and when they struggle as last 2-3 years, its always the players fault. My point is you cant have it both ways.
joe
June 24th, 2009
6:00 pm
Pete, and what would you say if,due to some good pitching and timely hitting, the Braves win every series on this homestand, which they are fully CAPABLE of doing given the way they are currently playing? What would you say if the Braves sweep the Phils. This is a team that has underachieved, not overachieved. A few breaks here and there, if Braves can steal a win tonight, they can get on a real roll.
but thank you for pointing out to me the intricacies of division standings. after watching baseball for 17 years, I had no idea that any given team is not capable of putting a run together and overtaking one or more teams in the division.
the fact of the matter is, the braves are 4 games behind the leaders with 90 games left. all four teams are within 4 games of the leader, which is to say the team that has the best head to head record with the other teams in the division will have the best chance of winning. i guess i am the only one who is dumb enough to think that the Braves have just a good a chance as anyone else in doing just that.
Jeff R
June 24th, 2009
6:06 pm
Why would the Nats take Vazquez? They’re building with youth. I’d imagine that they’d want prospects for Dunn, unless they thought they could flip Vazquez for prospects from another contender.
joe
June 24th, 2009
6:17 pm
Pete,
regarding your posts on bobby cox. he doesn’t try to have it both ways. he is the first to deflect any praise that he received during that remarkable run on to the players. he will admit that it was rather easy for him to manage such a talented team year after year. but that is not to say that he had some severe challenges with some braves teams, ie the russ ortiz era, the baby braves era, and the years at the beginning of the decade when he had an obviously declining staff of glavine and maddux and a revolving door at first base, a bullpen of has beens and castoffs and still won.
you severely discount the skill it must take to continue to win in those circumstances, and i dont believe it is all on the players in situations such as that. and again, bobby, during these non-winning years, is not blaming the players rather than himself for the lack of production. he doesnt go on record and blame the hitters, saying there’s only so much i can do! no manager is perfect, but when people have such a short memory and point out from their armchairs that bobby is such a crappy manager, that is severe disrepect for someone who has given this franchise so much, and will end up in the hall of fame. not to mention, there is a LOT to be said for players continually praising Cox and the way he handles his business in the clubhouse and on the field. but i suppose you all know better than the players on how good of a manager bobby cox is and has been.
Tommy Wildfire Rich
June 24th, 2009
6:33 pm
So….we are not able to pass 3 teams within 4 games of us with 90 games to go?
Jan
June 24th, 2009
7:09 pm
Pardon me while I get you a “get real” pill. Braves could have had Dunn for a song in the off season and they continually passed him up. To think to trade a horse like JV for someone we could have had straight up is ludicrous. You just lost my vote for virtual GM of the year. KK to the pen if the Hoss is ready in August. Keep young, exciting, effective pitching. The Braves are going to break you heart if you really think they can win. Just don’t trade the pitching.
Mike
June 24th, 2009
7:40 pm
Well Ray, at least you’re a sport about it. I’ll give you that. Let’s hope the Braves can string together a better second half.
CTrim
June 24th, 2009
7:47 pm
We might have a shot if we let Kurt Rambis manange the away games.
Realistic Fan
June 24th, 2009
9:05 pm
Can pigs fly? NO? Same chance as the Braves winning the NL least.
Pete
June 24th, 2009
10:06 pm
joe: “Pete, and what would you say if,due to some good pitching and timely hitting, the Braves win every series on this homestand, which they are fully CAPABLE of doing given the way they are currently playing? What would you say if the Braves sweep the Phils. This is a team that has underachieved, not overachieved. A few breaks here and there, if Braves can steal a win tonight, they can get on a real roll.”
You can play the “what if” game all you want. What youre suggesting is the Braves will win 7 out of 9 games against the Yanks, Red Sox and Phillies, and my response is there is no reason in the world to think they will do that. But if you want to believe it, thats fine; I take a much more realistic view. Youre ignoring the fact they have to pass 3 teams, and not just 1. If they were 4 games behind just 1 team, I would be on your side of the arguement re: they certainly would have a decent chance to win it. But behind 3 teams? Not gonna happen.
Just back from Gwinnett Braves game; great stadium.
Pete
June 24th, 2009
10:14 pm
joe: “regarding your posts on bobby cox. he doesn’t try to have it both ways.”
You misunderstood. I wasnt saying Cox wants it both ways; I was saying those who always support Cox want it both ways. That is, when things are going great such as in the 90’s through ‘05, Cox received a ton of accolades for the way he managed. But when things arent going so well, it has nothing to do with Cox; its the players. Thats what I mean by having it both ways. You yourself said the Braves have underachieved so far; doesnt the manager bear any responsibility for that?
Mike
June 24th, 2009
10:16 pm
As I was saying about the bullpen…………and oh yeah, why is Escobar still on this team?
Pete
June 24th, 2009
10:21 pm
Tommy Wildfire Rich: “So….we are not able to pass 3 teams within 4 games of us with 90 games to go?”
The way this team is constructed now, I do not believe so. Of course its possible; anything is. Im just saying its not probable. A team under .500 this late in June, and that plays so poorly at home….just seems very doubtful to me is all Im saying.
Pete
June 24th, 2009
11:02 pm
joe: ” i guess i am the only one who is dumb enough to think that the Braves have just a good a chance as anyone else in doing just that.”
You are definitely NOT the only one.
Mark P.
June 24th, 2009
11:08 pm
There is absolutely no reason to believe that Tim Hudson will step back into the rotation and be the pitcher he was before surgery. The next pitcher who returns from this surgery and immediately regains his form will be the first. It will probably be sometime next year before he can be a seven inning quality pitcher. To count on him to be the old Hudson in August is questionable at best and foolhardy at worst.
Wayn-o
June 25th, 2009
12:27 am
How about Medlin, Kotchman, Francoeur & low level prospect for Adrian Gonzalez?
mferris01
June 25th, 2009
9:44 am
I don’t agree with trading JV. We definitely need a big bat but I would package any combination of Kotchman, Francouer, and minor leaguers to get it. Kotchman just doesn’t produce the power numbers that a first baseman should.
A Lowe-down dirty shame -- the Braves' ace is in a hole | Mark Bradley
June 26th, 2009
2:21 pm
[...] days ago I called Derek Lowe the Braves’ ace because that’s how I’ve come to see him. Alas, he’s not pitching like one. We can [...]
MIke
June 27th, 2009
7:08 am
Did someone say “all we need is a 7-3 series.” Well it’s looking more like 3-7. This team literally looks like a AA ballclub when the big boys are across the diamond.
It’s not even respectable anymore. Last night, Chip Carey was celebrating the fact that the shutout was broken up.
Too bad MLB doesn’t add a column for moral victories.
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July 6th, 2009
11:45 am
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John
July 6th, 2009
4:39 pm
Trade Lowe instead of Vazquez.. vazquez is the ace on this team, not Lowe. Lowe is getting old and his performance will continue to decrease worse than it has this year and these next years.I want Adam Dunn on this team bad though.
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August 24th, 2009
7:33 pm
[...] answer two weeks ago was yes. My answer today would be no. I don’t believe that’s what Wren’s answer would be, [...]