Face Off: How the Braves can — repeat, can — win the East
They were 9 1/2 games back at the All-Star break in 1991, not even in second place. I know, it was a different time and a better Braves team, but still …
Can it happen? Sure it can.
The Braves are four games out of first place. They’re lucky to be that close, but sometimes you get lucky. They’ve played better these past six days, and there’s a chance they’ll play better in July than they did in June. Because they can pitch, and starting pitching has an aggregate effect. Good innings prop up a team, just as bad innings drag it down. Look what’s happening to the Phillies, who have almost no pitching.
Philadelphia is 27th among 30 big-league teams in ERA, and a team cannot win a division that way no matter how hard it hits. The Braves are sixth in ERA, which means they can. They’ll have to hit a little better and hope the Mets, who remain the most gifted team in the NL East, don’t get healthy. (Carlos Beltran just joined Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado on the disabled list.) But there’s a way the Braves can leverage some pitching to find a bat before the trading deadline.
I’ve said it before: Tim Hudson is the hidden key to 2009. He’s expected back in August, and if he’s throwing well in July rehab the Braves could part with one of their starters in exchange for, say, Adam Dunn, the Washington outfielder. Which starter? By process of elimination, Javier Vazquez. Which sounds crazy, given that he awoke Tuesday leading the National League in strikeouts. But hear me out.
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are the future. (Also the present.) Can’t trade them. Derek Lowe is the ace. Can’t trade him. Kenshin Kawakami is new and makes too much money. Can’t get much for him. Hudson is coming off an injury and could be a free agent at season’s end. Can’t get much for him, either. But Vazquez? A durable 32-year-old under contract through 2010?
You could get something for him.
Most teams looking to dump players at the deadline are hunting prospects, but a veteran pitcher could be enticing to a team lacking everything, which describes Washington. Almost no contender is ever shedding pitching in July, but the 2009 Braves could become the exception. They might even throw in Jeff Francoeur as a package-sweetener.
Think of it this way: Dunn to hit behind Chipper Jones and ahead of Brian McCann, Hudson in for Vazquez to keep the innings-eating going. The Braves have already upgraded once with Nate McLouth. One more major move and the hitless wonders could well surge past the pitchless Phils and give the Mets a run to October.
I know, I know. This hasn’t looked like a playoff team since the Ides of April, but it has hung around. As long as it pitches, it can keep hanging. One more bat and the serious climbing can commence.
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198 comments Add your comment
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
12:56 pm
The 2004 Braves were under .500 on the Fourth of July and won the East by 10 games. The 2007 Phillies were under .500 on July 19 and won the NL East. If you’re into numbers, you might consider those.
Mr. Joe Torre
June 24th, 2009
12:56 pm
Hey guys, with the talent that the braves have I could bring yall home a world serries championship ring
ATL FAN
June 24th, 2009
12:58 pm
Mark, I like your idea about Frenchy going to Texas… perhaps we can pick up a good bat for him… and they might just take a chance on his talent especially since they have a hitting instructor who KNOWS WHAT HE IS DOING!
PATTY
June 24th, 2009
12:58 pm
The braves have the heart. they will make it to the playoffs this season
Fischerking04
June 24th, 2009
1:01 pm
Well put Mark.
Is there any value left in JoJo? If we could package him and Francoeur for a power hitting outfielder that would be nice.
Jeff
June 24th, 2009
1:06 pm
Mark…..NOT a good idea trading Vasquez for Adam or anybody.This guy has the best stuff on the team and would be a allstar if we got him some runs.Who knows what Huddy has in his tank.We should have never signed Hooter boy to a big contract and traded him,and get a REAL leader and a bat.
Braves73
June 24th, 2009
1:08 pm
I agree that the Braves have a chance, but trading a key piece to your pitching staff doesn’t sound like a good move. Hear me out, if upper management is to defend their mantra “pitching wins championships” then why would they make this move? Frank Wren went out in the offseason and spent a pretty penny ($$$ & prospects) in order to upgrade the staff. It would be a counter-productive move to trade a piece of the pre-determined puzzle. It would be a HUGE gamble to count on Hudson doing anything this year (much less next). You have Vazquez under contract until 2010 and he is already proven to be a great fit for this ball club.
My suggestion (and this goes against my previous blogs) is to stand pat on the Vazquez trade front and see what you can get some other potential trade. I know that a package for Frenchy & KJ is not inviting, but it would hurt to see what you could “throw in” to get a bat. Try the old Schuerholz method, see who gets desperate at the deadline, and sell on the “potential” of a player/players you can package.
hmmmm
June 24th, 2009
1:09 pm
The numbers say Lowe is not the ace. Vasquez is pitching much better. How about Lowe, Kotch and Francoeur to White Sox for Dye, Konerko and Josh Fields. RIGHT HANDED bats with power would help better than Dunn. Money will match up as well.
Willy
June 24th, 2009
1:12 pm
Trade Vazquez? Re-tahded.
cmac1818
June 24th, 2009
1:15 pm
No way the Braves trade Vasquez if they’re still in it. Even if it’s for a power bat.
He’s been argueably the team’s best pitcher, so trading him would be a HUGE step backwards. Sorry but I don’t trust Tim Hudson. No way can he be counted on to hop in the rotation and put up the same numbers Javy is. (Seriously, he is leading the NL in strikeouts and with a little luck, would have about 10 wins already.)
Kevin
June 24th, 2009
1:21 pm
well i be darn Arod loves Men we glad not like young boys….lol geez what a comment well bobby cox is okay. to be fired i would rather see him retire first would u be best.But its up to him i would love see them win a WS title for him to before he retires also!
jeffrey d
June 24th, 2009
1:21 pm
But I don’t think he’s going to turn a pennant race by himself. He’s a utility man
THANK YOU, Mark! Based on how some people talk about him on the blogs, you’d think he was an All Star and he can single handedly turn around this team because he got off to a hot start. Truth is, he’s just a utility man (with a career average in the .260s)
ATL FAN
June 24th, 2009
1:22 pm
Ditto what most everyone is saying here. The only untouchables should be Vasquez, then McCann, Hanson and JJ. Everyone else is potential trade material.
jeffrey d
June 24th, 2009
1:27 pm
A lot of people seem opposed to trading Vazquez….I think it’s a great idea. When you have a surplus and you have a huge need, you use that surplus to trade for that huge need. Of the starters not named Hanson, Vazquez has the most value by far. Yeah we’d miss him, but the starting pitching wouldn’t miss too much of a beat. The offense, however, would benefit greatly.
And to the people making their own trade proposals – other GMs don’t want our team’s garbage. “Why don’t we offer KJ and Francoeur for Brian Roberts and Luke Scott?? We can even throw in Greg Norton and Jo Jo Reyes!”
Because Baltimore’s GM didn’t wake up this morning saying “I wonder how I can help the Braves today?” (that’s a line borrowed from someone on O’Brien’s beat blog btw)
ATL FAN
June 24th, 2009
1:27 pm
Oh – and I want Chipper to be included on the no trade list – he needs to retire here
Mike
June 24th, 2009
1:29 pm
Upgraded with McLouth. Hmmmmm…..I’m still not sure I see where the upgrade is at this point. Hopefully, in the second half.
The way to win is for Bobby to start managing the pen a bit more effectively. I’m not convinced Hanson is the savior yet, but after he semi-intentionally walked a Yank to set up a force in the 6th, Bobby yanked him (he was at 99 pitches I think). No offense to Bobby, and it clearly worked out, but I didn’t think Moylan gave us a better chance to end the inning…which was a Jeter DP.
Again, it worked out. But I think Bobby really rolled the dice and I would have preferred to see Hanson pitch his way out of it.
HARRY
June 24th, 2009
1:31 pm
When it is time for Hudson to return put him in the BP. Get a big bat thru the trade route some other way. There are package deals that can be made.
Random
June 24th, 2009
1:36 pm
MB: “if [Hudson]’s throwing well in July rehab the Braves could part with one of their starters in exchange for” some “big bat” or other.
With that as a premise, the whole rest of your article is useless, idle speculation. It ain’t gonna happen, as many here have already pointed out.
On top of that, you yourself already said “Good innings prop up a team, just as bad innings drag it down.” You attributed the Braves’ current not-totally-out-of-it position to their pitching. They cannot afford to lose ANY of their starters anytime this season. They need the “big bat” on top of all of the pitching they’ve now got, not in place of one their starters.
Finally, I’d rather see Lowe dealt rather than Vazquez. Imo, Vazquez is a keeper — I’d like to see him extended here.
So far this year, Vazquez has outperformed Lowe in all major pitching stats except GO/AO (L=2.04, V=1.36). But if you look at SO+GO/AO, Vazquez is on top with 2.81 (100+117/77) to Lowe’s 2.58 (148+51/77).
Plus, I think the Braves could get more for Lowe than for Vazquez.
Time for JeSch now.
C from Marietta
June 24th, 2009
1:37 pm
Trade Javier – NO NO NO!!!!!!!!
Adam
June 24th, 2009
1:39 pm
Javy Vazquez has given the Braves THE most professional mound performances since the Big 3 left. If we had him as No. 4 behind those guys we would have hung more Series banners. Forget the record — he is the ace of this staff because he has been LOCKDOWN.
Hmm… Hudson coming off of major surgery. Yeah, let’s count on him every five days to throw 100 pitches.
Medlen is not being used and probably could get you something if you package him with a vet like a Kotchman or a Matt Diaz (I don’t think Francouer has much, if any, trade value right now. Neither does Johnson).
Actually, when Infante gets back put him at 2B so we can get another BAT into the lineup that won’t swing at first pitches and hesitate when he hits high choppers, being thrown out and cost us runs.
You don’t even mention Florida — the Marlins started a dominating 11-1 and what that means is that they are capable of doing it again. In the first 2 weeks they looked like the best team in baseball and while they’re not the best team they are EXTREMELY dangerous.
Ray Pugh
June 24th, 2009
1:40 pm
The anti-Dunn crowd knows as much about baseball as I do about how Megan Fox looks naked: even though Dunn rarely hits more than .250, his on-base percentage is always a hundred or more points higher than that, meaning he is very good at not making outs. A player of that caliber is valuable even if he hits half of the ding-dongs Mr. Dunn hits.
HOWEVER, this trade will not happen b/c Washington would want a Medlen, Scafer or Freeman in return as well, and FW thankfully wouldn’t go for that…
nique
June 24th, 2009
1:44 pm
Mark, Wren will never trade Vasquez for Dunn. If he did he’d admit the huge mistake he made when he was in search of an outfield bat this offseason and he signed Garrett Anderson for a few mill less than it would take to get Dunn. He would basically have wasted the stud prospect he traded for Vasquez when he could have obtained Dunn without parting with any talent. Thoughts?
P-Town Brave
June 24th, 2009
1:45 pm
Here’s a novel idea:
Stop playing Francoeur and Johnson, go get another bat for RF, and release Jeff Bennett…
Bobby Cox will still find a way to muff a few games here and there, but that should put the team in contention for a playoff spot….
I’m sorry to tell ya MB, but if we continue w/ the current lineup and the current manager, 3rd place or lower is gonna come calling in September.
Mike from NC
June 24th, 2009
1:52 pm
I say bench Frenchy and start Diaz to add some more offense to the lineup and go ahead and get a feel for whether or not the Nationals are willing to trade Dunn. If so, go get him now!
m
June 24th, 2009
1:52 pm
DON IS A MORON!!!!!
Mitchell
June 24th, 2009
1:54 pm
Hey Mr. Optimism,
What about my prediction that we’ll finish this homestand with above .500?
Might happen. Then you’ll have to get me that nice little award you talked about. I’m holding you to it, you better believe that!
O'Brien
June 24th, 2009
1:57 pm
Mark,
The Braves could have signed Adam Dunn in the offseason, but I dont think Frank Wren even made an offer. And now you want to trade for him?
I dont like the idea of trading Vazquez. Yes, Hanson is pitching well, but he might struggle later in the year when hitters have a better scouting report on him.
We’ve seen JJ struggle towards the end of the season last year, so who knows what to expect this year. And even if Huddy pitches well in rehab, it would still be a very risky move.
Do you think the Braves will keep both Gonzales and Soriano?
Mike
June 24th, 2009
1:58 pm
Megan Foxx naked? What do you want to know?
Hoosier Aaron
June 24th, 2009
2:03 pm
You don’t trade your best pitcher if you plan on winning your division.
Especially when he tells the Hall of Fame manager, “I don’t care about pitch counts…I’m here to finish”.
Ozzie said he didn’t have onions….yeah, right.
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:04 pm
Vazquez is not a surplus. Hudson will not be ready this year. no guarantees that medlen can perform half as well as vazquez over the course of 10 starts. we go with what we’ve got, or we get a bat that doesn’t cost us any major contributors to our team.period.
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
2:06 pm
Chipper isn’t going to be traded. Frank Wren has been too aggressive to give up on 2009.
Mitchell
June 24th, 2009
2:06 pm
Now that I’ve read the whole article my only comment is about Bradley’s claim that Derek Lowe is our ace.
No, I’m pretty sure Javier Vasquez is far and away the best pitcher on this team. I guess now I understand why everybody’s been talking about trading him but as great as Hudson is I don’t think I would chose him over Javy if I were made to do so.
I just couldn’t do it man. Javy’s like that one guy who you know can fight through a game. He’s tough. JJ and KK and Hudson are great but they’re a little soft if you see where I’m going with this.
I’d take Adam Dunn in a second I know that.
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:07 pm
I predicted a sweep of the yanks and an 8-2….so far so good! hope KK can keep the great pitching rolling.
the braves must keep gonzo and soriano, if they plan on competing this year. we’ve seen all season how nasty they are in the late innings. with moylan coming around steadily, we just need to have a lead in the 7th and we’ll win a very high percentage of those games.
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:10 pm
Mitchell,
hudson is soft? what exactly are you talking about? by all accounts from players that played with him and against him, he is known as a gritty bulldog that never gives in. he’s had disappointing seasons in atlanta, but his career should more than speak for itself. you don’t compile a winnig percentage like that, and throw 240 inning seasons by being “soft”. ridiculous.
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
2:11 pm
A sweep of the Yanks, eh? And they say I’m an optimist.
Ramblin Wrecker
June 24th, 2009
2:12 pm
This is what I’ve been thinking and saying for a long time now. The Braves should have signed Adam Dunn outright. I’m still baffled about why they weren’t seemingly interested in a guy who has hit 40 homeruns-literally for the last 4 straight years. Can’t be because of his defense if you are running Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz out to left field every day.
But we didn’t so we should do the next best thing and trade Javier Vasquez to LA (Dodgers or Angels), Milwaukee, Detroit or whoever they can (too bad Ozzie hates Javy or the Braves could trade straight up for Jermaine Dye and get that right handed bat that is missing). Then spin off the gains from that trade (or a combination of prospects from their own system not named Jason Heyward) to Washington for Dunn.
One other positive to a trade scenario involving Vasquez and Dunn that Mark Bradley failed to mention was the financial aspect. Vasquez makes $11.5 million this year and next year, and Dunn makes $8 million this year and $12 million next year, so the Braves would actually have a net gain in funds this year if they wanted to add another reliever who makes $3 million or less this season.
T.O
June 24th, 2009
2:13 pm
1)Nate McClouth CF
2)Escobar SS
3)Chipper 3b
4)Dunn LF
5)MCcANN C
6)Kotchman 1b
7)Kelly Johnson 2b
8)Frenchy/Garrett Anderson RF
9) Pitcher spot
That’s a tough lineup to beat if everyone stays healthy to go along with the deepest starting rotation in the league. And not to mention one of the best set up and closer combos in the NL. Go get Dunn!!
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:13 pm
Mark Bradley,
that’s right! despite the infamous lost popup between chip and escy, i think the braves are playing well lately, and we’re catching the yanks at the right time as they are slumping a lil bit. of course, i’d be very happy with series wins.
GTSteve
June 24th, 2009
2:13 pm
Everybody repeat after me…..You can never have too much pitching……Do not trade Vasquez
GTSteve
June 24th, 2009
2:16 pm
Not to mention ……The Nats are going with a youth movement on the mound, not sure they would even listen to that trade…..the offense is starting to pick up…..maybe….
Mike
June 24th, 2009
2:17 pm
M- “DON IS A MORON!!!”
Good one, Bobby.
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:17 pm
Vazquez is bobby’s boy now, no way bobby allows him to be traded, especially with him pitching so well. especially not for dunn, who we could have had as a free agent.
AustinBrave
June 24th, 2009
2:18 pm
What would we need to give up to get Brian Roberts and Luke Scott? Maybe Medlen, JoJo,Kelly, Francouer, Campo.
HUH
June 24th, 2009
2:21 pm
I’d love to see a sweep, Joe. But this team against a decent opponent? NO WAY. Remind me how many sweeps we have this year. Is it one against the Nats in April??? Uh…. no…
Phil
June 24th, 2009
2:21 pm
As long as Moron Cox is managing, there is zero chance of winning the East. Last place is more likely than first place.
Adam
June 24th, 2009
2:24 pm
Getting Brian Roberts would be AMAZING….
Only if Bobby stops thinking he’s Earl Weaver.
That’s the guy we should be targeting. He could bat 2…. move Yunel to the 5 spot and now you can absorb Francouer as an 8 hitter, much like Cox did with Andruw many years ago.
bravessince85
June 24th, 2009
2:26 pm
I would NOT, would NOT include Javier Vazquez in any trade in any shape or form. Tim Hudson is scheduled to make his return in August right? Why not plug him into a long relief role? He has already said if he’s best fit there, he would make the transition through the end of the year. If we wanted Adam Dunn, we should have gotten him during the offseason. The Nationals aren’t even in a position to acquire a starting pitcher because they will not be in contention this year nor next. I think right now they are gaining the confidence they’ve desperately needed. Like Ive said before Garret Anderson would come out of the woods, and he has and its paying dividends. Plug Infante or Prado into second base and let Kelly be the utility player for a change. Then the only week spot is in rightfield. I like Francoeur and think he can bust out of it… i don’t know if it’ll be for the Braves or someone else.. but i think he can. The Mets are in a situation the Braves were in last year, no one stayed healthy and it will cost them. Reyes looks to have a more serious injury than previously expected and Beltran’s injury plagued him a few games earlier in the season, so that’s something that might linger. The Phillies have no pitching.. with no pitching, you can’t win. I don’t care who you play and how many runs you score, pitching and defense ultimately win championships and with only 9 wins at home? I don’t think they are in it to win it this year. I think the Braves are breaking out of their funk. 1-6 in the lineup is producing. If they are in it after the All Star break, then maybe trade for a bat, with draft picks involved. We have a sleu of talent in the farm right now, so I don’t think it would hurt too much anyways.. but trading Vazquez is not the right answer because we don’t know how Huddy will be anyways. It is Tommy John surgery folks.
Mark Bradley
June 24th, 2009
2:28 pm
Note the day and the time: June 24, 2009, 2:28 p.m.: I will guarantee the Braves don’t finish behind the Nationals.
Tommy Wildfire Rich
June 24th, 2009
2:29 pm
Mike- If you don’t think McLouth is an upgrade over Shafer/Blanco, I don’t think you would recognize a naked Megan Fox if you tripped over her.
joe(shoyo wang)
June 24th, 2009
2:29 pm
HUH–
In baseball, “No Way” is a ludicrous statement. anything can happen in baseball. on top of which, its not like this is the worlds worst baseball team meeting the worlds best. braves have great pitching right now which seems to be peaking, we have hitters starting to hit their stride and get timely hits (GA), it is not a NO WAY situation. Tonight’s game will obviously be key. I thought yesterday’s matchup favored the braves and they won. Tonight probably favors NY, so KK will have to be on top of his game. Yankees are quality, but they are slumping, and the Braves just posted back to back shutouts for the first time since 2004. obviously, you couldn’t have predicted that based on “track record”. but this is baseball.