The Braves’ No. 1 pick: A Minor addition or a major reach?
Nobody would ever suggest the Braves don’t know what they’re doing — on second thought, that’s pretty much all anybody ever suggests on the ol’ blog — but taking Mike Minor with the seventh pick in Round 1 seemed, shall we say, unusual.
He’s a college pitcher. The Braves tend to prefer high school pitchers. (Fewer innings in the arm.) And it’s not as if Minor was considered the class of this college class. Indeed, Baseball America had him ranked a “second-round talent” and the 10th-best lefthander available in its pre-draft issue.
Baseball America’s capsule: “Minor could be the third lefthander drafted out of Vanderbilt in the past six years, and he’s more Jeremy Sowers [who's 13-22 with the Cleveland Indians] than David Price [the Tampa Bay phenom]. Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move … Minor’s success could depend on his breaking stuff … Minor will be all over draft boards in June and could go anywhere from the first half of the first round to the back half of the second.”
Here was Jim Callis, the Baseball America writer who tabbed Minor as the Braves’ No. 1 pick in his mock draft: “[He] doesn’t have as high an upside as some others.”
From John Manuel of Baseball America (link requires registration): “It’s an out-of-character pick for Atlanta in many ways, but the Braves believe in Minor, the 2008 Summer College Player of the Year. The Braves like the fact that Minor improved down the stretch when he took over the duties of calling his own pitches, and his cerebral approach should help him move quickly. Scouts who doubt Minor believe his stuff has flattened out the last year or so and believe he’s a fourth starter at best, with only plus pitchability and no true out pitch.”
Keith Law of ESPN.com’s Scouts Inc. had Minor rated the draft’s 38th-best prospect. (Requires registration.) And let’s note that he went No. 7, which was the highest pick the Braves have had since 1991, when they took the center fielder Mike Kelly at No. 2.
Loading ...And here, as reported by esteemed colleague Carroll Rogers, was scouting director Roy Clark’s rationale for taking Minor: “He was the ace of the USA Baseball national team last year that had a number of pretty good pitchers, including Mr. [Stephen] Strasburg [the No. 1 overall pick]. This guy is a winner. I was hoping we’d have an opportunity to select him. Now, I’m hoping we have an opportunity to sign him.”
A stipulation: The Braves do a nice job scouting and developing talent. Their track record tells us so. Another stipulation: Zack Wheeler of East Paulding, considered the apple of the Braves’ eye, was taken sixth overall by San Francisco. That said, Minor was still an odd choice.
John Schuerholz arrived from Kansas City in October 1990. In the 19 drafts since, only twice have the Braves made a collegian their first selection. The aforementioned Kelly, of Arizona State, was one. Joey Devine, the reliever who exited North Carolina State in 2005, was the other, and the Braves made a hash of his development. Not the most heartening precedents, would you say?
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127 comments Add your comment
Paul Lents
June 10th, 2009
2:52 pm
((This post has been removed for moron content))
Jp Swain
June 10th, 2009
2:53 pm
There is much more likelihood that he turns out to be Jo Jo Reyes than there is that he turns into Tom Glavine. I would’ve taken Alex White- you can have as much pitchability as you want and never develop his fastball, split or slider. With Brett DeVall- a carbon copy pitchability lefty already in the system, this pick makes no sense.
country boy
June 10th, 2009
2:57 pm
Maybe Minor would be major league ready within a couple of years. Knowing Wren and Shurholtz I’m thinking trade bait since we like to give 3 to 4 minor league prospects for a major league player.
Supes
June 10th, 2009
3:00 pm
He would have been a great 2nd round pick.
The problem is, you don’t spend the 7th pick in the 1st round on a guy who has a projected seiling of a 4th STARTER at BEST!
You just don’t. Minors are full of back or the rotation “projects”.
Look at the Braves rotation for the future.
D-Lowe and Kawakami are going to be here for the next 2-3 years. Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen will be here. Jair will be here. IF Hudson returns to form, no doubt the Braves will make a play and sign him for 2011 and beyond.
So where for the love of baseball do we project Minor to start? Yes I know injuries and depth building, but the point is…most likely Minor will be used as trade bait down the road. That’s it.
Basically you spent the number 7 pick in the draft as trade bait and you passed on guys with higher seilings b/c you were TOO Cheap to pay them. Braves are now the Expo’s of this decade (as far as payroll flexibility)
Supes
June 10th, 2009
3:01 pm
Epic Fail by The Braves…glad to see many share my view by voting it a whiff!
Joe Fan
June 10th, 2009
3:10 pm
It is way to early to judge the upside for Minor. Possibly he is a stellar pick but, as we all know, only time will tell. However, I believe pitching was not the hole needing filling by the Braves, it is position players. They need players with offensive punch especially someone to eventually replace Chipper and another corner outfielder to complement Heyward. Much rather have seem them use the 7th pick on a top tier position player.
Jonathan
June 10th, 2009
3:10 pm
People are leaving alot of comments and it is obvious that they do not follow the draft much..I am gonna say a few things then leave because most people have their mind made up already
1) you dont draft someone to just trade them down the road (because then the signing bonues you gave them goes to waste, for example)
2) the in “Roy Clark we trust” mantra is foolish becuase he ASKED for money to sign some of the mroe talented players in the draft, and was rejected. so to say “we got a good pick becuase of Roy Clark” is dumb.
3) OF COURSE Clark is going to say we took the player we liked the most lol. What do you think he would say “well there were about 10 better players on the board but are too cheap”??
4) The Braves have produced THREE all stars level players in about 15 years…McCan, Chipper, and Glavine. itis time for people to wake up and realize our players development hasnt been THAT great.
5) this was the first time we have picked in the top 10 in more than 15 years, and dont have a 2nd round pick at all, and we went for a cheap sign, that dosent tell you good things abotu where things are headed for our team.
Steve from OH
June 10th, 2009
3:12 pm
A bit of a reach in terms of pure stuff, but when you factor in signability and pitchablity and polish, it’s not too bad. He doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as Matzek or Purke or Turner (but he’s not asking for “record-breaking” money either), but he is a very good pitcher and a safe choice. Would’ve preferred to see a true #1-ceiling talent taken, but he’ll do fine. I don’t expect him to be a top-of-the-rotation starter I expect him to breeze through the minors, and probably start at hi-A or AA. I don’t think it’s a good pick in the sense that they didn’t get the best player available, but they still got a good player.
Paul Lentz
June 10th, 2009
3:17 pm
Supes………Braves management has done a GREAT job with managing the payroll this year. Frank Wren rebuilt the starting rotation and fleeced the Pirates in the McLouth trade. After this year, when Hudson’s $13 mil comes off the books (I would not resign him), then the Braves will have even more flexibility to improve the team.
Last year the Braves spent $50 mil on John Smoltz ($14 mil), Tom Glavine ($8 mil), Mike Hampton ($15 mil), and Tim Hudson ($13 mil) who combined to make 52 starts for the Braves last year. I would not consider that to be “cheap”. However I would consider that to be a complete WASTE. Frank Wren realized that and let 3 of them leave. After this year, Hudson will leave as well.
We have a starting 4 this year who has not missed a start at all. All 4 have been healthy, durable, and eaten a lot of innings while pitching. And now the Braves have Hanson in the 5th spot with Medlen waiting in the wings should he be needed.
Get your facts straight before you call someone “cheap”. The Braves are being smart (cutting Glavine and trading for McLouth) with where they want to spend their money.
siskel_god
June 10th, 2009
3:18 pm
If this kid pitches 89-91mph, I think outside of Vasquez, and Hanson none of our starters throw any harder. Big frame on this kid too maybe they can work on that arm strength a little. I’ll say this Kyle Farnsworth throws harder than anybody I ever saw live, but I will take Jamie Moyer over him. I would have loved another big arm too get excited about but this is what the Braves do, that’s why we all get so excited about Hanson.
siskel_god
June 10th, 2009
3:23 pm
Jonathan I think the fact that we picked in the top 10 for the first time in 15 years tells me enough, I don’t need you to tell me anymore. The Braves have always drafted good and usually known when it’s time to go another direction. Nobody ever gets it perfect but the Braves have been consistently one of the best.
wayn-o
June 10th, 2009
3:38 pm
You have to remember they braves are looking for someone who has what it takes to play at the major league level one day (ie Hanson over Glavine)… not someone with the best stats or stuff… because that doesn’t always translate… Francoeur has all the talent in the world but look how he’s turned out!
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
3:46 pm
Good point about Kyle Farnsworth, Siskel.
Or, as the master nicknamer Bobby Cox called him … wait for it … “Farnsy.”
Sam Everyman, Citizen Journalist
June 10th, 2009
3:57 pm
Two of my comments have disappeared today and I’m not sure why. I suspect it is because I let my union dues lapse but I cannot be certain. It’s good that the Pirates have Morton going on a rainy night because we all know that when it rains he pours, er, pitches. I advocated earlier that Escobar be given his own candy bar but I guess that one was so bad the computer wouldn’t accept it. Something frosted on top. I am doing this without the benefit of a peach shake or a pineapple upside down cake (an old Southern favorite much like New England clam chowder). Will Francoeur start tonight? Has anyone told Morton how to pitch to Frenchy? Throw it to the batter’s circle and get a quick strike on him. Then, you can settle in and throw one low and away. Strike two. Then, a serious around-the-shoulders ball. Strike threeeeee. Three pitches should do it.
Ward Cleaver, Beaver's Dad
June 10th, 2009
4:00 pm
Don’t be so hard on Frenchy. I don’t think we should discuss how to pitch to him. What if a scout from another team is reading this blog?
jarvis
June 10th, 2009
4:14 pm
Trading draft picks would be interesting. How many rounds are there? What could you get for the 27th pick in the 27th round?
I assume it has something to do with the ridiculous number of teams in the baseball farm system? If Atlanta trades away bundles of late round draft picks for actual needs, who is going to be in the bullpen in Danville?
gene garbage
June 10th, 2009
4:19 pm
decent pick. pitching future is in the hands of medlin and hanson. free agency will take care of the rest. don’t look for any pick to stay with one team anymore. in today’s game, just how long away is the future anyway? 2 yrs,3yrs 5? teams only keep a few of their “prospects”. the bravos will keep the two mentioned above, along with freddie freeman and jason heyward. (as far as down on the farm). everybody, i do mean everybody, else is trade bait.
Turk 182
June 10th, 2009
4:24 pm
New Peach Milshake! New Peach Milkshake!
jarvis
June 10th, 2009
4:28 pm
Put a couple buffalo nugget sauces on a chik-fil-a sandwich. Makes the best buffalo chicken sandwich on earth.
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
4:31 pm
You know the best thing about Chick-fil-A sponsoring a bowl based in Atlanta? Gary Stokan hand out coupons for milkshakes in the press box.
(Don’t tell anybody, though. Might have to declare those on the ol’ tax form. And I’ve gotten enough IRS attention as it is.)
jarvis
June 10th, 2009
4:34 pm
You don’t have an employment relationship with the Atlanta Sports Council. It would be 1099 taxable, and you don’t have to report anything on a 1099 less than $600 from a single source.
You’re in the clear.
Atlanta Journal Constitution » Blog Archive » The Braves’ No. 1 pick: A Minor addition or a major reach?
June 10th, 2009
5:29 pm
[...] Mark Bradley | ajc.com – [...]
Dawg A
June 10th, 2009
5:40 pm
Why in the world does the Braves pick someone that only was really good for a few games. Another interesting move by the braves!!!!
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
6:02 pm
There was a time when I thought Gary Stokan might pay me $600 not to write about his Chick-fil-A Bowl, but we we seem to be on speaking terms again. (Which is good. He’s a nice guy, and he has worked wonders with the bowl formerly known as Peach.)
Oh, and if you’re so inclined, here’s a little something I’ve whipped up on Chipper Jones.
the real Old Gold
June 12th, 2009
11:36 pm
I sat near Frank Wren at the Rome Braves game tonight and was going to call him out, but he brought his kid as a disgruntled fan buffer while he was shooting radar.
McLouth: 32R, 10HR, 36RBI, 9SB, (.255) Francoeur: 27R, 4HR, 26RBI, 3SB, (.245)
If these are drastic enough differences to sign one to four hears and have constant trade talks for the other then I’m going to look into getting a job as a sports writer or a GM because I think I may know more than I thought I did. Prediction: Frenchy goes to Boston and goes to the Hall in 20 years with a Sox cap on. You people are worthless fans.
justin
June 13th, 2009
11:05 am
its laughable that you call francour a star!! hahaha!! he sux.
| Mark Bradley
June 14th, 2009
2:46 pm
[...] The Braves’ No. 1 pick: A Minor addition or a major reach? [...]