The Braves’ No. 1 pick: A Minor addition or a major reach?
Nobody would ever suggest the Braves don’t know what they’re doing — on second thought, that’s pretty much all anybody ever suggests on the ol’ blog — but taking Mike Minor with the seventh pick in Round 1 seemed, shall we say, unusual.
He’s a college pitcher. The Braves tend to prefer high school pitchers. (Fewer innings in the arm.) And it’s not as if Minor was considered the class of this college class. Indeed, Baseball America had him ranked a “second-round talent” and the 10th-best lefthander available in its pre-draft issue.
Baseball America’s capsule: “Minor could be the third lefthander drafted out of Vanderbilt in the past six years, and he’s more Jeremy Sowers [who's 13-22 with the Cleveland Indians] than David Price [the Tampa Bay phenom]. Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move … Minor’s success could depend on his breaking stuff … Minor will be all over draft boards in June and could go anywhere from the first half of the first round to the back half of the second.”
Here was Jim Callis, the Baseball America writer who tabbed Minor as the Braves’ No. 1 pick in his mock draft: “[He] doesn’t have as high an upside as some others.”
From John Manuel of Baseball America (link requires registration): “It’s an out-of-character pick for Atlanta in many ways, but the Braves believe in Minor, the 2008 Summer College Player of the Year. The Braves like the fact that Minor improved down the stretch when he took over the duties of calling his own pitches, and his cerebral approach should help him move quickly. Scouts who doubt Minor believe his stuff has flattened out the last year or so and believe he’s a fourth starter at best, with only plus pitchability and no true out pitch.”
Keith Law of ESPN.com’s Scouts Inc. had Minor rated the draft’s 38th-best prospect. (Requires registration.) And let’s note that he went No. 7, which was the highest pick the Braves have had since 1991, when they took the center fielder Mike Kelly at No. 2.
Loading ...And here, as reported by esteemed colleague Carroll Rogers, was scouting director Roy Clark’s rationale for taking Minor: “He was the ace of the USA Baseball national team last year that had a number of pretty good pitchers, including Mr. [Stephen] Strasburg [the No. 1 overall pick]. This guy is a winner. I was hoping we’d have an opportunity to select him. Now, I’m hoping we have an opportunity to sign him.”
A stipulation: The Braves do a nice job scouting and developing talent. Their track record tells us so. Another stipulation: Zack Wheeler of East Paulding, considered the apple of the Braves’ eye, was taken sixth overall by San Francisco. That said, Minor was still an odd choice.
John Schuerholz arrived from Kansas City in October 1990. In the 19 drafts since, only twice have the Braves made a collegian their first selection. The aforementioned Kelly, of Arizona State, was one. Joey Devine, the reliever who exited North Carolina State in 2005, was the other, and the Braves made a hash of his development. Not the most heartening precedents, would you say?
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127 comments Add your comment
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
12:39 pm
I have to admit that “pitchability” stumped me, too. It reminded me of what the late Paul Owens — the Philadelphia manager and general manager — said about baseball men needing to recuperate from, shall we say, a night on the town: “You’ve got to have bounceability.”
Big B CH 99
June 10th, 2009
12:40 pm
W/ this pick, the Braves definitely need to pick up the phone & see if they can bring Glavine back as a consultant or something to work w/ this kid. There wouldn’t be anyone better to work w/ a young left-hander that doesn’t throw that hard, but has a great change-up.
I’m still not sure why the Braves haven’t brought Leo back, Roger ain’t that bad, but he also ain’t no Leo Mazzone.
Jordan
June 10th, 2009
12:43 pm
This is a smart pick, so stop dogging this player already Mark. Being a Nashvillian, I have watched Mike Minor pitch a couple of times at Vanderbilt and he’ll be a great asset for Atlanta down the road.
http://cgi.ebay.com/J-D-Drew-Autographed-Baseball-Bat-Full-Size_W0QQitemZ120432728127QQihZ002QQcategoryZ27261QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
retired scout
June 10th, 2009
12:43 pm
One of the funniest comments I read here was that “Mazzone developed Glavine”. Give me a break. Mazzone is a legend in his own mind. I don’t see any major league clubs beating his door down to hire him, do you? As for draft opinions, I doubt if any of you bloggers would recognize a prospect if you saw one. Some even quote won loss records, era, etc..Stats don’t mean anything. No professional scout considers “outcomes”; only consider tools and personal make-up.
Sam
June 10th, 2009
12:45 pm
Who have we signed from Latin America in the last couple years (besides Yunel) who has really produced at the Major League level? Furcal, Andruw, and Javy were all years ago. We drafted Francoeur, Kelly, McCann and Hanson. Plus, wasn’t Yunel drafted in the second round? I think so!
NC Braves Fan
June 10th, 2009
12:47 pm
Here’s a writeup from the ChiSox portion of MLB.com. Kind of explains the use of pitchability with Minor. I have no idea about his drink or smokeability.
CHICAGO — The word is “pitchability,” and it won’t be found in even the most thorough of dictionaries. That’s probably because pitchability isn’t really a word.
It’s more of a descriptive term, unique to the game of Major League Baseball. If a particular hurler has this pitchability, it usually indicates that he doesn’t possess a fastball able to whiz by hitters at 95-to-100 mph on a consistent basis. Bobby Jenks has raw firepower, for example, with a hint of pitchability.
In the converse, pitchability also means this man on the mound understands the job at hand. He knows how to attack the hitters within the zone. He knows how to change speeds. Simply put, he realizes what has to be done in order to give his team a chance to win games.
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051116&content_id=1269226&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws
Alan
June 10th, 2009
12:48 pm
Just saying it would be nice to have Elvis in the minors developing and move Yunel to third and Elvis to SS when Chipper calls it a day….
Daniel
June 10th, 2009
12:49 pm
Hes only 21 years old, he will sign, and he is not a huge risky pick that will take years and years to develop. He is much like Cole Hamels in his talent level, and has the intangibles to boot. Get over yourself. It was a GREAT pick!!
Sam
June 10th, 2009
12:50 pm
Also, total side note, wouldn’t it be amazing if MLB got rid of the archaic rule that you cannot trade draft picks? Imagine how much better teams, like the Nats, could be if they could trade the #1 pick to the Red Sox (who could sign the pick) for a good vet or pitcher like Bucholtz.
Daniel
June 10th, 2009
12:51 pm
I don’t know who that last Daniel is…
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
12:52 pm
While I’m off idling away the minutes at Chick-fil-A, NC does major research and educates us all. I feel ashamed. (But also edified. Thanks so much.)
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
12:53 pm
It is an outdated rule, Sam. Thanks for broaching the subject.
Sam
June 10th, 2009
12:55 pm
A question for our esteemed Mr. Bradley: do you get paid by the hour, by the column, or are you signed to a contract? If that is too personal, sorry, I was just having an argument with a buddy.
1eyedJack
June 10th, 2009
12:55 pm
“Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch”
Sounds a lot like Tom Glavine doesn’t it? Too bad we didn’t retain him as a pitching consultant so he could work with the kid.
NC Braves Fan
June 10th, 2009
12:58 pm
Mark – hey, I got drink, smoke and bounceability in return for a modest Google search, which is a tidy return on investment in my book.
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
12:59 pm
Got no contract, Sam. I think I get paid on the monetary system, but I’ll have to check with accounting.
(In semi-seriousness, I don’t get paid by either the column or the hour. I get paid by the number of correct predictions I make, which means I’m still waiting for that first check.)
Jeff R
June 10th, 2009
1:00 pm
Got to hope that Roy Clark’s estimate is on the mark. What’s the best guess on where Minor starts out? High A or AA?
G. Bluedar
June 10th, 2009
1:00 pm
Ah, memories from the last paragraph of Bradley’s Devine column:
At a time when half the Braves’ pitchers are hurt and the cry to promote Charlie Morton from Class AAA is reaching full volume, it’s prudent to recall Joey Devine. “We try to err on the side of caution,” Wren said, and for good reason.
datominator
June 10th, 2009
1:02 pm
Lol, “Wren Hater”. Smoltz – you’d better stop trying to dump on Wren, and get back to your rehab, slacka…
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
1:04 pm
I’m betting Minor starts out in the minors.
Sorry. I couldn’t resist.
Kyle
June 10th, 2009
1:04 pm
Everybody hates on Wren, but Schuerholtz(sp?) is still President and I’m sure these decisions do not get finalized without the approval of Schuerholtz. You never can tell how a baseball prospect will develop. Take Tommy Hansen….a 22nd rounder. Also, just because a guy can throw in the mid 90’s doesn’t mean he can pitch.
Sam Everyman, Citizen Journalist
June 10th, 2009
1:06 pm
Consider this . . . the Braves now have a pitcher from Vanderbilt and one from Princeton. They picked them to go with one another. Partners, so to speak. Otherwise, another interpreter would be required in the dugout.
Imagine one of them rooming with Francoeur or with Chipper – no understandability (to borrow from Mark). Don’t they also have an aerospace engineer now? Factor all three in and the IQ of this organization just shot up to about the mid-90’s. Talk about the blind Homer. C’mon kid.
Jeff R
June 10th, 2009
1:06 pm
There’s no doubt that the Braves made a mash of Joey Devine. But they did well with Wainwright,Harrison and Feliz. Oh, yeah, that’s right: they’re somewhere else now.
Jeff R
June 10th, 2009
1:07 pm
Yes. Minor in the minors. Minor makes majors. Major Minor mocks Mike Minor (say that three times fast).
NC Braves Fan
June 10th, 2009
1:11 pm
Mark – a chicken finger woulda been nice for the efforts. I find their eatability to be quite high.
Mike in Nashville
June 10th, 2009
1:14 pm
I think Mike Minor is a great pick up for the Braves. He definitely was the best pitcher on Vandy’s staff. His record isn’t so hot due to him always going against the other team’s best pitcher, and the SEC is just a really tough conference to pitch in. (Vandy’s offense was very erratic this year, which didn’t help either).
His international experience as part of Team USA is a huge plus. In the local papers, he was predicted to be a top 10 pick, which is where he went.
Booster
June 10th, 2009
1:14 pm
Are you saying Chipper aint smart because I know he is and Frenchy went to Parkview and could have gone to Clemson. So, what’s the big deal about going to college if Frenchy could get in. All they have to do is learn the sines and be selective at the plate. Oh, I see what you mean.
Barry Howard
June 10th, 2009
1:16 pm
I’m tired of the negative nellies constantly bashing this team. First The MLB draft is very unreliable as far as who makes it and doesn’t based on draft pick number. At best its always an educated guess. This team has a solid minor league system and record based over the past 15 years. So obviously there is a lot of talent in our scouts and front office. Second our major leagure pitching staff is very good and young. Not a whole lot of need there over the next few years. In fact this team is 1 or 2 big bats away from being a championship team. First base and Right field is where we need better production. I don’t think the trading is done yet. We are close so be patient!
Turtsnap
June 10th, 2009
1:16 pm
Mark, hope you had a peach milkshake at Chic-fil-a…. they’re da bomb!!
Eric
June 10th, 2009
1:21 pm
How many games do scouting reports win/lose ya? Let’s hold off judgement and see how he pans out.
Roja
June 10th, 2009
1:21 pm
Mike Piazza was what? The last guy picked and chosen on a lark as a favor to Tommy LaSorda. Maybe the Braves know something that Mark Bradley does not know. But that is a vast UNDERSTATEMENT!
NRBraindead
June 10th, 2009
1:23 pm
In a way, this pick reminds me of the Disney classic “Old Yeller.” It was hard for Mr. Wren to let Tom Glavine go (think of the older son shooting Old Yeller to put him out of his misery), and then Mr. Clark (think Fess Parker) brings Mike Minor (think the new puppy) along to replace Old Yeller at the end of the film – It’s all so heartwarming that I want to puke.
Sam Everyman, Citizen Journalist
June 10th, 2009
1:26 pm
I wonder why Chik-fil-a didn’t go with a pineapple upside down shake?
Will Francoeur be back in the lineup? Inquiring minds want to know. Jurrjens for instance might want to know.
Sam
June 10th, 2009
1:31 pm
Anyone willing to pony up a dollar to help the Nationals? They certainly need it to pay the money Strasburg (sp?) and Boras are going to want for that contract.
Smitty
June 10th, 2009
1:34 pm
still want to know if anyone knows what Anderson’s longer term injury/disability is?
Bama Aaron
June 10th, 2009
1:42 pm
I’m not completely unhappy with this pick. But we’re not completely bare in the pitching department….however we don’t have anyone that can seem to hit or hit with power. Were there no decent 3rd basemen or 1st basemen in this draft? And since it seems to take our farm system many years to “develop” someone I’d take a college outfielder that doesn’t strike out 3 times a game!
Ted Striker
June 10th, 2009
1:43 pm
Most Chick-fil-A coupons don’t expire. They have a “please use by” date, not an “expiration” date. Truett Cathy told me that so I believe him.
Meat Rabbit
June 10th, 2009
1:45 pm
Buck Owens could have made that pick….we need some sluggers!
Braves73
June 10th, 2009
1:47 pm
I can honestly say that I don’t know anything about this kid. It’s tough to put a well thought out analysis with baseball, because college and high school is just not as prevelant as other sports. I would have to defer to the Braves scouting department because they seem to be pretty astute at player personal on this level.
CharlieAlphaBravo
June 10th, 2009
1:52 pm
Everyone thought the Braves were nuts when they decided not to take Todd Van Poppel with their first-round pick a while back… They instead took a risk and picked Larry Wayne Jones, Jr.. So let’s try to hold off on dismissing Minor before he gets a chance to prove himself.
Phillip
June 10th, 2009
1:53 pm
NRBraindead,
I almost starting crying when I read your account of Mike Minor replacing Old Yeller(Glave)
Justafan
June 10th, 2009
1:57 pm
check out Leo MAZZONE
httpi//sports.espn.gocom/espn/eticket/story?page=mazzone
Might change some haters mind.
Booger
June 10th, 2009
2:03 pm
The Minor kid can’t be all bad when you consider they have leagues named after him. I also felt a twinge reading about Old Yeller. It is a fitting analogy. Here’s another . . . watching the game last night Bobby reminded me of Little Jack Horner. He stuck in a thumb and pulled out a plum. Wait, that was no plum. Wasn’t a peach shake, either.
NRBraindead
June 10th, 2009
2:04 pm
Thanks Phillip.
Poorjeff
June 10th, 2009
2:13 pm
Was Minor one of the top 10 players in USA…I think not.
Mark Bradley
June 10th, 2009
2:17 pm
Elizabeth had a milkshake (vanilla). I’m watching my boyish figure.
KB
June 10th, 2009
2:19 pm
Um…it seems to me that no one on this blog has actually seen Minor pitch, (including Mr. Bradley since he’s taken about ten quotes from different sources). Minor is a very good pitcher, although I agree that he reminds me more of Jeremy Sowers than David Price. When he locates his change-up, he’s tough to beat. He’s a very Glavinesque pitcher.
Turtsnap
June 10th, 2009
2:21 pm
I watch my boyish figure too….it keeps getting fatter :O)
Paul Lentz
June 10th, 2009
2:23 pm
I’d be willing to bet that most of you morons havent watched a whole college baseball or high school baseball game all year long. You make your decisions about these players’ ability based on what some publication or tv. sports pundit has to say. This isnt like the NFL or NBA draft where many fans have watched these guys play numerous games in college. Most of us havent seen these players play AT ALL.
Point is, in some way, the MLB Draft is a true crap-shot. Personally, I would rather the Braves make smart draft picks and develop players who “can learn to pitch”, instead of just throwing hard. Spending millions of dollars on draft picks who “may or may not pan out” to me is more of a crap-shot than spending millions on proven, healthy, pitchers like Derek Lowe.
There are bargains to be had in the lower levels of the draft, where the prices to develop them are much cheaper. Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen are two prime examples. From an economic standpoint, it makes more sense to draft the “diamonds in the rough” than to spend millions on young kids whom you have no idea how they are going to pan out as they work their way through the minors. It’s too much of a crap-shot to be throwing away millions at unknown talent.
Just because someone is a high school legend (Jeff Franceour for instance), does not mean that he is going to be a superstar at the Majors. By the way, how many All-Star games has Jeff Franceour played in?
Atlanta Cowards
June 10th, 2009
2:40 pm
What the saw in this kid, or rather what the DIDN’T see, is dollar signs. This is a pocketbook pick which really hurts with the quality available at 7. Pony up and assure the future of this club. Lest we find the next Chuck James.