The Braves in 2009: Is a wild card such a wild notion?
Here’s where I say something and you tell me how smart I am. (Or, as is more often the case, how smart I’m not.) I’m saying the Braves will win 89 games and claim the National League’s wild card. I’m saying they’ll finish second to the Mets. In sum, I’m saying better days are at hand.
I know, I know. I thought the same last spring and was in egregious error. But last spring I’d bought into the Braves’ message of hope. This time I’m operating on something closer to faith.
I’m not banking on 40-year-old pitchers to call back the years. I’m banking on Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to do what they always do. I’m banking on Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson to provide the sort of lift that went missing in 2008. I’m banking on Jeff Francoeur to hit .285.
I’m banking on the bullpen to be quite good. I’m banking on Kelly Johnson’s second-half surge to have been more than a mirage. I’m banking on Yunel Escobar showing he can keep his head and play to his gifts. I’m banking on Casey Kotchman to be better than we Atlantans have yet seen.
I’m banking on Kenshin Kawakami to win a dozen games. I’m banking on Chipper Jones to get hurt no more than twice, neither time seriously. I’m banking on Brian McCann to win the MVP.
I know, I know. These haven’t been the best of times for anybody doing any sort of banking, but I like what Frank Wren did over the winter and I like the way his team has performed in the spring. I sense a new spirit around these Braves, a keener edge.
Almost all the old faces are gone. Tom Glavine isn’t seen as anything more than a seat-warmer for Hanson, whereas last season he was regarded as a heart-of-the-rotation guy. And if you have to build your batting order around an older guy, it helps to know that guy just won a batting title. And the best news of all: Mike Hampton is someone else’s concern. Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.
I like the Braves to win 89 and the wild card — yes, it took 90 victories to do the deed each of the past two seasons, but 89 was the required number in 2005 and 2006 — because I see the Phillies as primed for a plunge. I don’t see that rotation holding up. The Mets are another matter. The Mets are going to be really good. (K-Rod and Putz in the ‘pen, no more Willie Randolph in the dugout, no more icky Shea Stadium).
But the belief here is that the Braves will themselves be stout enough to play into October. Stout enough to win the Series? Probably not. But once you get there … it’s a crapshoot, right?
I’m guessing y’all have some beliefs of your own, and I’d be obliged if you’d share them. And come October I’ll look back on this little post and see who knew what way back when. Deal?
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169 comments Add your comment
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
11:51 pm
Bench is the greatest. McCann could be great. Thanks for asking.
Adam Jones
April 3rd, 2009
12:05 am
I really think the Bravos’ can make the wild card put it rides on a few factors. The first is how much power they put up. Yea I know Cox ball doesn’t ride on to much power but if McCann can hit in the 30 hr range and Francouer, Chip, and Johnson can hit in the 20’s They should be ok. I really like the rotation, especially Lowe and his sinker. If the rotation can eat innings and keep the bullpen healthy they should be pretty solid, except for left handed relievers which could be a factor considering all the left handed power in the division. If Huddy can make a late season start then it would be pretty solid if they make the playoffs. The final and most important is for overall hitting, if there is one thing I learned over the years about the Bravo’s its that they hit in streaks, if they make the playoffs its because their streaks came toward the end of the season with a late season surge.
stupup74
April 3rd, 2009
12:42 am
The braves improved rotation probably insures they will not lose 90 games like last year, but I don’t know if they have enough pop to win 90 this year.
The braves probably have the best defense in the division, minus McCann throwing. The bully has a chance to be really good, but Moylan, Soriano, Gonzo, and whoever the situational lefty is, are all question marks. This year’s bullpen is comparable to last year’s rotation in terms of health question marks.
While I love the fact Schaffer is getting the call in CF, it looks like BC is going to leadoff with KJ again. Has this ship not already sailed? KJ is not a leadoff hitter, he is run producer, not a table setter. Unfortunately the braves don’t have a leadoff hitter. They also don’t have enough pop to sit and wait for 3 run homers anymore.
That brings me to Jeff. He has to take control of his career. Bottom line, everyone is talking about his batting average. I don’t care what his batting average is, he has to hit for POWER. His OPS is a much more telling stat for him than BA. I think he has taken steps to sharpen his eye at the plate, but he needs to ditch his right field hitting approach. He is at his best when he opens up that front side and yanks the ball. That is what he should be looking to do, stand as close as possible to the plate, leave the junk alone and try and yank anything middle in. Jeff is never going to be a high BA, On base guy, but he could be a very big power hitter. His ceiling is more like Andruw Jones than Chipper Jones, meaning .250-.260 ish with 30 bombs and 100-110 RBIs. His O in OPS will never be high, but the S really could be.
The braves have very few worries in the SP and defense departments, but the bully is of concern until health is proven and rust shaken. The offense has alot to prove, especially with the braves two best hitters being lucky to play 140 games each, one because of injury risk and the other because of being a catcher.
Opening week is going to be really interesting. The braves play the two teams that give them fits in the division right off the bat. I think it is going to tell us alot about them. The braves HAVE to win more games against Philly than last year and have to win two thirds of the games with the Nats in the season series to have any chance at the WC. We get a look at both right off the bat. Go Bravos!!!!!!
Bronco
April 3rd, 2009
8:12 am
GO BRAVES! Sick ‘o Vick
ManOfTeal
April 3rd, 2009
8:31 am
I believe that the Braves will trip and choke just like they always have. Except for that hiccup in 1995 the Braves have been nothing if not consistent….consistent at failing when everything is on the line…..dropping the ball when they are faced with any situation when their might will be tested. Maybe they will have a great regular season and even make it to the playoffs but baseball is a game of statistics, and statistically, and historically, the Braves cannot cut the mustard when the going gets tough and the stakes are at their highest.
Braves fanboys can flame me all you want on this blog and call me a hater but you all know deep down that I am right….I am not an optimist, I am a realist. Sorry to pee on your Cheerios.
Go Marlins!!!!
Mitch
April 3rd, 2009
10:12 am
Mark, I would love if you are right.
As for the Phillies and the Mets: Many times, after a team wins a World Series, especially in the way the Phillies did last year, there is bound to be some “hangover effect”. I think that will happen to the Phillies this year.
I also agree with you that the Mets are going to be very good if everyone’s healthy. Chances are, if that team has a lead in the 7th inning, it’s lights out, because Putz and Frod are two of the best in the game.
As for the Braves: We made some very nice upgrades, with Lowe. Javy Vazsquez, and Mr K (Can never spell his name). Plus that, Jair will be good, and I think Tommy Glavine will have one more decent season in the sun, before riding off to the HOF.
Our lineup is solid, but the always question for us is.. how many times will Mr Larry Wayne (I love him, and I am not making fun of him, just saying) get hurt?
89 and the wild card sounds very realistic to me.
The fun starts Sunday night in Philly (Thank God it’s not today, because I live not far from Philly, and its pouring here!)
Go Braves! See you in October, hopefully!
Mitch
b marsh
April 3rd, 2009
1:28 pm
whattabout Sammons !? I played with him in HS he is the real deal, maybe he will have the breakout year… for another team. Mccann is the backstop but clint is legit. Any GM or scout worth his grain in salt should be able to see this and make a deal
1061.00
April 3rd, 2009
1:36 pm
This is a 80-85 win team. If that wins a wildcard, which I doubt, then great. All the offense rests on Chipper’s shoulders, and he will break down as he always does. He can’t do it alone. McCann will help, but he gets lots of off days, being a catcher. McCann will also get dinged up.
That leaves the offense depending on a restyled Jeff Francoeur. I’m not buying it.
Pitching will be strong, but they will wear down soon from the punchless lineup delivering 1 or 2 runs per game.
Greg Hawkins
April 3rd, 2009
1:52 pm
Enter your comments here
johnnyboy
April 3rd, 2009
1:56 pm
I like what I’ve seen so far. As much as I love the old pitchers, it’s nice to have some fresh faces in rotation. And the bats should be fine. Once again I think it’s going to hinge on the bullpen.
McFann :Ô:
April 3rd, 2009
4:19 pm
Mr. Bradley–
No way! I’ll come on here and give you a huge “THANK YOU!!” in bold italics. I’ll also stop by your blog a lot more often than I do…
Coach Not to mention the reality that the Cubs Geovany Soto is a much better overall player.
John Grove’s only been around a year. He can’t be better already…just ’cause he threw out a couple base runners……
phillyfandoc
April 3rd, 2009
4:36 pm
Sorry People, the next MVP will be in Philly. Either Howard or Utley. Can’t really see the Braves being in the Playoffs. Same Lineup that bagged it late n the season. Only question Mark for the Phil’s right now is our #1 pitcher Hamels. Really didn’t have a spring training.
phillyfandoc
April 3rd, 2009
4:41 pm
Doesn’t any other City see that the PHillies are a above average team??? Some of you guys sound like NY bloggers. You have Blindwers on. the reason they won was due to no injuries, and they had a great year. they beat the Mets the last two series they played them, when the Brewers came in for four series ,they sweep them. And if I remember that beat the Braves up all year. And if i remember they won two division east titles. So either their just good or the Braves and the Muts are really bad.
braveshater
April 3rd, 2009
7:06 pm
matt diaz, shaffer, and francour-the worst outfield in the history of baseball and u think the braves will make the playoffs. Tha AJC gets worse by the minute. Mcann is an absolute beast out there, he should be gettin mr glass’s extension.
D Man
April 3rd, 2009
7:50 pm
Let’s not forget the return of Hudson….But still
LA
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