The Braves in 2009: Is a wild card such a wild notion?
Here’s where I say something and you tell me how smart I am. (Or, as is more often the case, how smart I’m not.) I’m saying the Braves will win 89 games and claim the National League’s wild card. I’m saying they’ll finish second to the Mets. In sum, I’m saying better days are at hand.
I know, I know. I thought the same last spring and was in egregious error. But last spring I’d bought into the Braves’ message of hope. This time I’m operating on something closer to faith.
I’m not banking on 40-year-old pitchers to call back the years. I’m banking on Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to do what they always do. I’m banking on Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson to provide the sort of lift that went missing in 2008. I’m banking on Jeff Francoeur to hit .285.
I’m banking on the bullpen to be quite good. I’m banking on Kelly Johnson’s second-half surge to have been more than a mirage. I’m banking on Yunel Escobar showing he can keep his head and play to his gifts. I’m banking on Casey Kotchman to be better than we Atlantans have yet seen.
I’m banking on Kenshin Kawakami to win a dozen games. I’m banking on Chipper Jones to get hurt no more than twice, neither time seriously. I’m banking on Brian McCann to win the MVP.
I know, I know. These haven’t been the best of times for anybody doing any sort of banking, but I like what Frank Wren did over the winter and I like the way his team has performed in the spring. I sense a new spirit around these Braves, a keener edge.
Almost all the old faces are gone. Tom Glavine isn’t seen as anything more than a seat-warmer for Hanson, whereas last season he was regarded as a heart-of-the-rotation guy. And if you have to build your batting order around an older guy, it helps to know that guy just won a batting title. And the best news of all: Mike Hampton is someone else’s concern. Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.
I like the Braves to win 89 and the wild card — yes, it took 90 victories to do the deed each of the past two seasons, but 89 was the required number in 2005 and 2006 — because I see the Phillies as primed for a plunge. I don’t see that rotation holding up. The Mets are another matter. The Mets are going to be really good. (K-Rod and Putz in the ‘pen, no more Willie Randolph in the dugout, no more icky Shea Stadium).
But the belief here is that the Braves will themselves be stout enough to play into October. Stout enough to win the Series? Probably not. But once you get there … it’s a crapshoot, right?
I’m guessing y’all have some beliefs of your own, and I’d be obliged if you’d share them. And come October I’ll look back on this little post and see who knew what way back when. Deal?
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169 comments Add your comment
McPoyle
April 2nd, 2009
1:47 pm
why do you think mccann will win the MVP? just curious. like what do you think will happen this year to propel him to MVP-type numbers. it’s just hard as a catcher, especially since he’s not going to play every day. his numbers will be down slightly compared to say a Pujols or Manny or Rollins who can play every day.
Dan
April 2nd, 2009
1:48 pm
Not to beat a dead horse– again– but as much as I enjoyed watching Smoltz pitch over the years for the Braves, the Braves are looking pretty smart for not relying on a pitcher who is going to be rehabbing until June this year, right? I was in the “say it ain’t so” crowd when I heard that Smoltz was heading to Boston, but with Lowe and Vasquez, to a lesser extent Kawakami, and Tommy Hanson… not to mention Jurjens, why pin the season’s hopes on a guy coming back from a bad injury (again)? Despite all the egg on the face in the winter with Furcal and Burnett, Wren is looking pretty good right now.
But then, not a single game that matters has been played this year yet, so, who knows?
Mugsy
April 2nd, 2009
1:51 pm
Mark, why’d you have to bring up my Deacs?!? I had just gotten off my meds…
GO BRAVES!!!
Fischerking04
April 2nd, 2009
1:59 pm
Dan: I agree with your sentiments. But go back and read what you wrote and think about Glavine.
The Braves did keep an aging guy that is coming back from injury/surgery. Of course with the acquisitions you mentioned we don’t need to “pin the season’s hopes on” Glavine. But if they avoided nostalgia altogether then Glavine would be retired and Campillo would be keepiing Hanson’s seast warm for a month or so.
bali
April 2nd, 2009
2:00 pm
Hope you are right cocerning predicting 89 wins for the Braves. Maybe it will come true. Just wonder if Brave fans will be there to cheer them on. I cannot wait to see D lowe in a Braves uniform and the Young guns the Braves may be bringing up sounds nice too. Is Hanson really as good as everyone seems to think and who s gonna play centerfield
Stephen
April 2nd, 2009
2:04 pm
Will Schafer keep #64 or will he have a different number starting regular season?
brandon
April 2nd, 2009
2:17 pm
i LOVE atlanta i was at the World Series in 1995 when they won, but to me the pitching concerns me, it just doesnt seem like starters or relivers will have enough to make it to October.
brewdawg
April 2nd, 2009
2:27 pm
Dan,
Don’t worry about beating the smoltz horse. I do it any chance I get, and will continue too
Honestly Mark, I’m more concerned with Purnell than Haith. I mean, at 43, you can, in my admittedly amateur opinion, still grow as a coach. Purnell I think is kind of what he is, and, at 56… I don’t know, I just don’t think it is the right direction. Damon Evans has really over-valued the prestige of the UGA job. We need the next Billy Donovan type, someone that can take a previously okay job, and turn it into something more, while falling in love with the school in the process.
Parker
April 2nd, 2009
2:38 pm
I still feel that this year for the Braves is still built around hope. There are too many what if, and new what ifs at that. The pitching staff has a chance to be the one of the best in baseball, but at the same time one of the worst. Age, transition, and/or inexperience (depending on who you are talking about) could destroy our team’s chances. With the number of injury problems the Braves have seemed to have the last couple of years only makes me hope for the old days to return.
Greg
April 2nd, 2009
2:42 pm
I haven’t kept up with the entire blog today, but I do have a couple of points to make on the topics I have seen.
First of all, this team absolutely has a shot to make the playoffs. The Braves have 4 solid starters who can definitely hold up over the season, and for the fifth spot you have the “problem” with using either a hall of famer or a promising young pitcher. As its been said I am sure, what a problem to have! Some teams would be forced to use Hanson as their 2nd or 3rd starter right now.
As for the line-up. It has incredible potential, and not the type of potential that has trouble coming to fruition. Great veteran presence and one of the best benches I have seen the Braves have. I think it is great to have players like Chipper and Garret Anderson play even 100 games, and expect them to easily get to 120 games barring a disaster. The team may not have a lot of bopper, but I think everybody on the team can hit 10 homeruns a season. How many teams can say that? The younger guys are getting better and better, especially McCann.
Now as for MVP talks…..McCann is great! One of my favorite players. He may get to that place during his career, but I do not see that happening as long as consistent threats like Puhols and Manny are in the league…not to mention such a diverse player like Hanley Ramirez.
STRETCH
April 2nd, 2009
2:44 pm
This is a pretty good looking team i think. Hopefully they will be more competitive this season. And what about 2010’s possible pitching rotation? It could look something like this:
Hudson
Lowe
JJ
Vasquez
Kawakami/Hanson
This rotation could match up with any teams rotation. Im just worried about that bullpen!
GP
April 2nd, 2009
2:45 pm
I know spring training doesn’t count for anything especially for a championship type team but I can’t help remembering the last time the braves had a spring like this they started the season 13-0.
jwilli120
April 2nd, 2009
2:46 pm
playoffs, playoffs, what playoffs!! (jim mora sr) lol. Just kidding i’m a braves fan through and through i just hope that this team doesn’t fall apart like last years taem did that was hard to watch, with that being said a lot of things went wrong and we caught no breaks whatsoever
so maybe the law of averages work in our favor this season. I truly believe we are better from top to bottom this year and the rest of the division is where they were last year and they caught all of the breaks,
IT IS OUR YEAR THIS YEAR AND BEYOND!!!!!!!!!!! GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
btw what was the deal with WILL ODAWG signing a minor league deal with the Ole Godgers anyone have any insight on this (MARK BRADLEY)
TEC
April 2nd, 2009
3:00 pm
The thing about Smoltz, is he will endanger his arm if he returns to pitching. If he last a whole season in Boston it will be short of a miracle and he could end up like Jeff Bagwell. As far as the Braves go, if they stay healthy, they have a chance at the pennant. The Braves were mostly free of injuries, when they had their long success.
Kentavo
April 2nd, 2009
3:01 pm
Mark, Thanks for dooming the season and cursing McCann.
Braint
April 2nd, 2009
3:07 pm
Just noticed that Moyer’s ERA is almost 9 this ST and Pelfrey’s ERA is 7.77
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
3:17 pm
Brian McCann played in 145 games last season. Is that too few for award consideration?
tye
April 2nd, 2009
4:09 pm
without a true number 1 starter and a big bat in the middle of the lineup the braves are at best 3rd in this division we need new ownership who will spend the money to get the players we need not save the money!
Chuck
April 2nd, 2009
4:47 pm
Mark, you must be banking with one of the failed banks. The braves will lose three straight at the phillies and go down hill from there. The game has passed Mr. Cox and they don’t have any clutch hitters.
Mark Windsor
April 2nd, 2009
5:05 pm
I thinks there better ODDS to Chipper winning the batting title again than Braves getting wild card or Brian McCann winning MVP however all three could happen but bull pen is shaky and poer hitting is missing and Braves under Cox are not good at ABC baseball…GO BRAVES in 09
Andy
April 2nd, 2009
5:07 pm
I an confused tye, what do you mean “without a big bat in the middle?” Is Chipper (batting champion) not a big bat? McCann? These guys ARE big bats. And since when is that a prerequisite to win anyways? The Cubs didn’t have a “big bat” in the middle of their line up last season compared to what the Braves have now. (D. Lee=Chipper, A. Ramirez=McCann) They had the most wins in the NL. It is ok to say that they just flat out are not as good as other teams in the division if it is what you truly believe, but hollow excuses for not winning like “No true ace” or “no big bat in the middle” or “ownership not spending money” just seem too simplistic. The Phillies for examply: If the 2-5 guys dont pitch well, it wont matter how good Hamels is this season. If Feliz, Ibanzez, and Werth dont swing hit then they can struggle offensively. It is about the whole team, not about just what happens at the top of the rotation and in the middle of the lineup (At least in the regular season).
Shamus Thacker
April 2nd, 2009
5:17 pm
Poor ole Gandaddy use’ta say, “if the wind ain’t blowin, you kaint fly a kite.” Last year we operated within the Hammy/Frenchy/Tex vacuum; everything we tried put a damper on the wind. Hammy and Tex (Hex) are creating vacuums elsewhere now (THANK THE LAWD).
The pitching staff (Hanson included, by June) is MUCH improved. In my mind, the loss of Smoltz is moot; his arm’s had all it can take. If he throws more than 400-pitches this year, I’ll be astonished. Our bullpen is DEEP; the one troubling tidbit being the departure of Ohman. Our bench is NUMERO UNO among the pine-riding set, with Norton leading the charge. Now to our everyday lineup…
Frenchy (swear to Gawd I believe this) has finally recognized brain matter as a legitimate baseball tool, he’ll be ok. BMac will definitely be an MVP candidate. Kotchman, with transition to Braves complete, will find a comfort zone we didn’t see last year, and a VERY productive one. KJ will have a breakout party this year, no doubt in my mind. His numbers will outshine anything we’ve pondered. Chipper will be Chipper, hopefully for 140-games or more. Anderson will be serviceable in left, and will be a solid everyday force in the batter’s box. Schafer and Yunel, with their youth and exuberance, will set the tone. The excitement-borne wind will begin to blow with those two. Add Hanson’s arrival in mid-June and we gotta howling gale on our hands!
Bring the kites boys/gals, we’re gonna ride em to the World Series!!
Andy
April 2nd, 2009
5:23 pm
Why on earth didn’t we do what it took to sign Ohman? any word on this? it obviously didn’t take much – the Dodgers got him on a minor-league deal. He was worth it for his Harry Caray impression alone, and is much more reliable than our pair of left-handed question marks in the pen.
Shamus Thacker
April 2nd, 2009
5:30 pm
There’s something the Braves know, that we don’t, regarding Ohman. Gotta be…
Scoots
April 2nd, 2009
5:33 pm
Of course none of us has any idea how the Braves will do this season. However, and what Mr. Bradley’s main point is (I think), is there is a lot of optimism heading into Opening Day this year. True, there was just as much optimism last year as there is this year – although with some warranted reserve. Our hopes were dashed last year buy a string of bad luck that I wouldn’t wish on any team, grounding our expectations faster than a Hudson River flight through pigeons.
The best news is that there are a lot of positive vibes out there right now – a lot of optimism. A few months ago, before Wren turned this off-season around, this franchise seemed to be heading downhill fast. But instead, we’re looking at the potential, if most things go our way, to have a great season of being Braves fans. Yes, if all goes wrong again, we’re looking at the same deal. But why look at things that way? Why assume the worst will happen again. It’s the same as going to work everyday assuming you’re about to get canned because of all the headlines about the economy – it just isn’t healthy, and it just isn’t much fun.
Drink the kool-aid, look at your glass half-full, and enjoy this season, because it has the potential (not guarantee) of being great – and that should be enough. Go Braves!!
brewdawg
April 2nd, 2009
5:39 pm
Smoltz doubters,
The only surprise will be if Smoltz DOESN’T come back and succeed. He’s done it every single time he’s come back from injury. He’ll do it again.
fieldofdreams
April 2nd, 2009
5:54 pm
God, man you are obsessed. The starting pitching is just slightly better than average and the bullpen – even after all these years – is still suspect. Not only that, Francoeur is a head case who can’t hit a curve ball off a tee, the left field platoon will crash like a led balloon, and Johnson has hands of stone, no range, and a streaky bat. Way too many ordinary players wearing the Tomahawk these days. No heroes, that’s for sure. Amidst this mediocrity, why not throw Hanson and Heyward into the fire? Or give second to a real infielder, like Prado? I love ‘em but they’ll have to fight Florida for third. PS: Look for a big year from Javier Vasquez.,
Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed)
April 2nd, 2009
6:02 pm
This 2009 team should win more games than they lose. But the playoffs are a stretch.
Why you ask?
With the forced trade of Josh Anderson the Braves are the same plodding 58 stolen base team they were last season. We CANNOT compete with the Mets (138 SB’s) and Phillies (136 SB’s) in this regard.
Our Braves do not have an answer for the three power combo of Ryan Howard (48 HR-146 RBI) Chase Utley (33 HR-104 RBI, Raul Ibanez (23 HR-110 RBI) or Carlos Delgado (38 HR-115 RBI) David Wright (33 HR-124 RBI) Carlos Beltran (27 HR-112 RBI.
Atlanta didn’t have one single player who topped 90 RBI last year.
Not to mention two of the top five lead off hitters in the game in Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins.
The injury history of both Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson over the last five years is what it is. The pair are likely to miss significant playing time.
Look at all the left handed bats. Our Braves are not well balanced, they wanted and needed a big right handed bat in the middle of the order and didn’t find one in the off season.
Historically, there have been nine catchers who have won the MVP: Mickey Cochrane in 1934, Gabby Hartnett in 1935, Ernie Lombardi in 1938, Roy Campanella in 1951-53-55, Yogi Berra in 1951-54-55, Elston Howard in 1963, Johnny Bench in 1970-72, Thurman Munson in 1976, and Ivan”Pudge” Rodriguez in 1999.
That’s 14 MVP’s awarded to nine catcher’s out of 156 in both leagues over 76 years. The odds are not McCann’s favor. Not to mention the reality that the Cubs Geovany Soto is a much better overall player.
The back of the Braves bullpen is iffy at best and an unknown commodity headed into the season.
The starting pitching is deep and talented, it should hold up. Ditto for the defense and these are the two main reasons why this team should win around 85 games. As for Bobby Cox, well….he is headed for Cooperstown but the man gets a vote of no confidence from this fan.
Algonquin J. Calhoun
April 2nd, 2009
6:22 pm
Mark, didn’t you pick the Falcons to win five games this past season?
Jeff R
April 2nd, 2009
6:24 pm
Maybe 89 wins and a shot at the wild card if the Braves stay healthy and everyone performs close to expectations.
But this seems more like a team that will win in the mid 80s. Surely, a big improvement over ‘08. With the kids coming up through the system, I think the Braves start hitting their stride in ‘10 and ‘11.
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
6:27 pm
I did, Algonquin. I thought I was being optimistic then, too.
Ted Striker
April 2nd, 2009
6:42 pm
I wonder what Vegas odds would be for next season’s Braves, Falcons, Hawks AND Thrashers ALL all making the playoffs. More interesting, all 4 making it past the 1st playoff series.
(If that happens, I’m giving my possessions to the poor and climbing on my roof and singing ‘Do Lord’ till I see a man on a pale white horse in the skies.)
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
6:58 pm
An even surer sign of the apocalypse, Ted: A Bradley forecast coming good.
Jared Smith
April 2nd, 2009
7:09 pm
Hey Mark, how long do u think it will be before Hanson makes his first start and how long till glavin is hurt.
doc
April 2nd, 2009
7:17 pm
mark, i dont have any faith in anything that is associated with the word BANK after the last year. i would prefer the term there is promise with no givens and a lot of unknowns. i wouldnt bet the bank or any bank on the braves this year even as poor as they are. heh heh
could be a fun team to watch again. fundamentals, playing defense, making contact, moving guys over and running a bit are the keys to success. unfortunately the braves have had very little of that for the last three years. in that way the braves way has deteriorated. let see if they can get some of that back.
Mike
April 2nd, 2009
7:46 pm
The Braves need to hop on Gary Sheffied and move Garret to center and let sheff play left,But there just sitting around when th Phillies are making a move for him Frank needs to get on it before hes gone.
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
8:07 pm
Garret Anderson hasn’t been a center fielder and certainly wouldn’t be one now — not at his age. And I wouldn’t want any part of Sheffield. He doesn’t have much left, and he talks an awful lot without making much sense. And if the Tigers had no place for him even as a designated hitter, why would a National League team have a spot?
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
8:10 pm
I’m guessing Hanson is an Atlanta Brave by Memorial Day, Jared.
Shamus Thacker
April 2nd, 2009
8:13 pm
I think the odds ARE in McCann’s favor. He plays the most difficult and physically demanding position in baseball. I think that would be taken into consideration and improve his chances, even with slightly less than the very best offensive numbers.
Sheffield is ready for the glue factory, btw.
DS
April 2nd, 2009
8:33 pm
Smoke em if you got em Mark Bradley
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
8:33 pm
I wouldn’t disagree with that premise, Shamus.
And Sheffield is 40. Too old.
Jared Smith
April 2nd, 2009
8:44 pm
SHEF doesnt deserve a job on any team all he does is talk right now atlanta has a good club house dont ruin it
Algonquin J. Calhoun
April 2nd, 2009
8:54 pm
Don’t feel badly Mark. I once thought John Edwards was the best candidate for President.
Ralph
April 2nd, 2009
9:17 pm
If you are that kind of banker, you will be needing a bail out before the all star break.
74Dawg
April 2nd, 2009
9:49 pm
The Falcons,hawks,and Braves could all make the playoffs . The Thrash,not so much. 2 years away. The Braves best chance is to get off to a fast start and give the Mets a bad case of deja vu doo. I agree about the Phillies pitching. But if the Braves and or Mets let them hang around until September…like you said it’s a crap shoot. I like Glavine personally(big game pitcher…only the biggest game in Atlanta sports history0 He will not be on a post season roster. On the other hand,if hanson is here early enough to impress Bobby Cox that he can be a dominant guy now, I like the Braves chances with Lowe,possibly Hudson,Jurjens and Hanson in October. If they get TYPICAL offensive numbers from their startersthey should be very interseting to watch.
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
10:04 pm
I think John Edwards thought he was, too.
Mark Bradley
April 2nd, 2009
10:06 pm
Oh, and if any of y’all are interested in Georgia’s new basketball coach, here’s my quick take.
bruce
April 2nd, 2009
10:43 pm
Mark, if we use a very reliable source, however I might misapply here, it seems you have set up next year as THE year. You said hope last year and faith this year, yet, the greatest is love, that would be next year. 1 Corinthians 13: 13 And now these three remain: faith, hope and love. But the greatest of these is love. (NIV)
bruce
April 2nd, 2009
10:44 pm
I really like the B-Mac prediction. gonna wear that t-shirt in Philly on Tues and Wed
Matt the Brave
April 2nd, 2009
11:49 pm
Mark, do you see McCann eclipsing Bench at some point if he stays on this path? I honestly think that he’ll end up being in the top three whenever it comes down to it. Also, besides Bench, who do you put in the top 3 for catchers? For me, it’s Bench, Piazza (only because he changed the way that catchers hit), and Berra.