Archive for the ‘2012 elections’ Category

Presidential prediction: The candidate who defies history and wins will be . . .

History and the numbers say Barack Obama will be re-elected tomorrow. History and the intangibles suggest Mitt Romney will unseat him. Which will prevail?

Let’s look at each.

The numbers have moved solidly in Obama’s favor. He caught Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls on Halloween after trailing for the better part of the previous three weeks. More importantly, he holds leads — usually narrow leads, but leads nonetheless — in enough swing states to push him past the threshold of 270 electoral votes (EVs).

There’s been much parsing of the polls this year, much of it focused on the partisan-ID breakdowns that various pollsters were using. A poll of “likely voters” inherently tells us something about who the pollster believes will actually bother to vote, and that’s as much art as it is science. Many pollsters have been forecasting an electorate similar to that of 2008, a wave election that saw Obama rack up 365 EVs and the Democrats claim a huge …

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Poll Position: Who will win the presidency?

The day is almost upon us. It’s time to declare.

After a very long election season, we’re a few days away from learning whether Barack Obama will be re-elected or if Mitt Romney will replace him. Which way will it go?

Who will win the presidency?

  • Obama with a couple of states to spare (458 Votes)
  • Romney by just a few electoral votes (367 Votes)
  • Romney with a couple of states to spare (295 Votes)
  • Obama by just a few electoral votes (270 Votes)
  • Obama with 325+ electoral votes (185 Votes)
  • Romney with 325+ electoral votes (184 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,759

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Now, you can find any number of data points to support your desired or predicted outcome. National polls, state polls, battleground polls, early voting totals, absentee ballot requests, TV ad spending, campaign stops by the candidates and their surrogates — all point to a tight race, and any can be used to explain why Obama will win or Romney will be victorious. In such a close race, with hardly …

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REVEALED: What the IRS form for Obamacare might look like (click on link to see it)

OK, this is not an actual IRS document: It’s a mock-up of one by Americans for Tax Reform. But it incorporates requirements from Obamacare in the kind of form you can expect if President Obama is re-elected and Obamacare is fully implemented. Bottom line: Your 1040EZ form is getting longer and less EZ.

Yet another reason we should move Tax Day to the day before Election Day.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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Hurricane Sandy prompts two sharply divergent views on how society should respond

It’s been a while since we’ve heard from Occupy Wall Street, the group alleged to be the left’s answer to the tea party. But you might hear more about these messages yesterday from the group expressing apparent approval of the wrecked state of New York City post-Hurricane Sandy:

Go outside. Meet your neighbors. Talk. Share a meal. When capitalism retreats, our communities flourish. #sandy #nyc

No subways. No electricity. No chains. #capitalism #sandy #nyc

As capitalism halts, we experience “an exceptional period of mutual support and common care.” http://ow.ly/eSX4t #sandy #nyc @StrikeDebt

I don’t think the person tweeting from the OWS account really believes things would be better in a world with so much physical destruction (although, in light of the way OWS treated the Manhattan park where it held its famous rallies last year, I may be giving him/her too much credit). I do, however, think these messages betray an astounding lack of recognition that free-market capitalism …

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Could this election turn on the effects of a mega-storm?

My thoughts and prayers this morning are with people in the path of Hurricane Sandy and the other storms converging on the Northeast Corridor. My sister lives in Brooklyn, and a number of my friends from my WSJ days live in New York City, Washington and elsewhere. One estimate I heard on the radio this morning was that 50 million to 60 million people stand to be affected. Folks, that’s 16-19 percent of the country’s population. Let’s hope it doesn’t end up as the super-storm so many meteorologists have predicted.

In the political world, both presidential campaigns are adjusting their campaign schedules to account for the storm, out of concern for the safety of residents and staffers in the places lying the storm’s path. It’s an old adage that Election Day weather has the power to change election outcomes. But we’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case this time, given that both campaigns are acting similarly (as opposed, for instance, to John McCain’s unilateral, ill-fated …

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WATCH VIDEO NOW: My 2012 presidential election chat with Jay Bookman

Jay and I got together with AJC political reporter Aaron Gould Sheinin in a Google Hangout to discuss last night’s presidential debate and our thoughts on how the race is going as of today — and where it’s leading us. Enjoy!

–By Kyle Wingfield

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Why George W. Bush was one winner of last night’s debate

First, a PSA: Jay and I, along with Aaron Gould Sheinin, are about to record a video chat discussing last night’s debate. We’ll both be posting that on our respective blogs around noon.

But before we get to that, one more thought about the debate:

You could argue that the winner of last night’s debate was George W. Bush. Before you tell me that’s ridiculous, let me explain:

One reason Mitt Romney was so quick to agree with President Obama on so many issues is that his clear goal for the night was not to damage his candidacy by not appearing “presidential” or believable as the commander-in-chief. He didn’t want to come across as a war-monger — as I wrote last night, that seemed to have been drilled into his head by his aides — and he made that point several times. He still has to win this election on the economy, and his aim regarding foreign policy was not to provide a distraction from that. I think he did that.

Another reason is that foreign policy is one area on which voters …

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Chapter 3: Live thread for the final Obama-Romney debate

UPDATE at 10:40 p.m.: The candidates very much got back to foreign policy. If Romney’s goal was to present himself as knowledgeable and reasonable on foreign policy — i.e., not a war-monger — he achieved it. He has been much more conciliatory toward Obama than vice versa — he’s eschewed many opportunities to attack Obama, whereas Obama has been on the attack all night. Which suggests both candidates saw Romney as the front-runner coming into tonight’s debate.

If so, I saw nothing tonight to change that. Each candidate had some good moments, but neither truly drew blood. If Obama needed a win, I don’t think he got it tonight.

The pundits are talking about Obama winning on “debate points.” I don’t think that’s the way undecided voters view these things. They wanted to see, as in the first debate, if Romney was this wild-eyed extremist the Democrats have been painting him as. Obama didn’t sleep-walk through this debate by any means, but Romney achieved the same goal of coming …

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How the NLCS might decide the election — and why Obama supporters should root for . . .

Tonight, while President Obama and Mitt Romney debate foreign policy, the deciding Game 7 of the National League Championship Series will pit the San Francisco Giants against the St. Louis Cardinals. If you want to know which candidate has the best chance of winning the White House, you might want to watch the baseball game — and root for the Cardinals if you’re a Romney fan, the Giants if you support Obama.

Because, apparently, the baseball gods like to dabble in politics every four years.

There have been 26 World Series played in presidential election years — every election year since 1908. In 22 of these years, one candidate won all the electoral votes of states represented by the World Series teams**. And that candidate has won the presidency in 20 of those 22 years.

That’s a 91 percent record in those 22 years, and 85 percent overall. (Yes, I know, — it’s still a pretty small sample. Work with me here.)

Need an illustration? Look no further than 2008, when the World …

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Poll Position: Do we need moderators in presidential debates?

Through three debates — two between the presidential candidates, one featuring their running mates — there’s been one constant: The moderators have been part of the story each time. PBS’ Jim Lehrer was faulted by some for being too hands-off; ABC’s Martha Raddatz for being too quick to interrupt; CNN’s Candy Crowley for playing fact-checker during one particularly heated exchange between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

Do we need moderators for presidential debates?

  • Absolutely (131 Votes)
  • Never (53 Votes)
  • Only in some of them (46 Votes)

Total Voters: 230

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(As an aside, as someone who’s moderated several debates myself, Crowley was wrong to intervene in that manner for two reasons, neither of them partisan: First, it wasn’t her place to offer an opinion; if she was trying to cut off the debate and move on to another topic, she should have simply said, “This one will have to go to the fact-checkers.” Second, fact-checking isn’t part of the moderator’s …

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