Stock gains don’t make up for continued sluggishness in economy, job market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average today briefly touched the 14000 mark, before falling slightly. As I write, it’s hovering right around that level, the first time it’s done so since late 2007. The broader S&P 500 is at a five-year high, about 3 percent off its all-time peak in October 2007. The Nasdaq is at a 10-year high, though it’s significantly lower than its tech-bubble peak. In all, though, these major indices finally are back to roughly where they were before the housing crash and Great Recession (as long as we don’t adjust them for inflation, that is).
Yet, earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the unemployment rate had ticked upward to 7.9 percent even though more people had stopped looking for work than found a job. At January’s rate of job growth (157,000 net jobs created), it would take until at least 2025 to regain pre-recession employment levels. At the rate for all of 2012 (an upwardly revised 181,000), it would take “only” until 2022, a decade and a half after employment peaked.
And yesterday, the Commerce Department said the economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first negative quarter since mid-2009. The economy is an estimated 14 percent smaller than it would have been if it had grown since 2008 at the long-term average of 3.1 percent a year. That’s some $2.25 trillion of economic production that never came into existence.
The reason for continued market advances in the face of sluggish economic news might be summarized by this quote from the Wall Street Journal:
“Any not-bad news is helping this market,” said Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners, a New York brokerage. “If we get great news, good news, or okay news, it’s still going to make our screens green.”
“Not-bad” is not exactly indicative of a boom. If this quarter were to repeat last quarter’s performance, the above numbers are where the Obama Recovery would have left us: barely back to zero for investors, still well below it for job-seekers and economic growth.
This is the reality wrought by the primary economic policy of the past four years — trying to jump-start the private sector via government spending and monetary expansion. All the spending and expansion hasn’t translated into robust private-sector growth. Four years later, there’s little reason to believe a boom is just around the corner.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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557 comments Add your comment
Bruno
February 1st, 2013
10:43 pm
At least these guys made it in in 2010, possibly my favorite band as a teen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RSK1JIb62c
Hillbilly D
February 1st, 2013
10:44 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2KoIWEAdaM
Bruno
February 1st, 2013
10:48 pm
From the same album:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl58Q-hBE-k
Bruno
February 1st, 2013
10:55 pm
I’m still partial to this incarnation of the Doobie Bros:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dTBTeoS0MA
JamVet
February 1st, 2013
11:06 pm
OK, gang. Gonna leave you with this one.
Enjoy…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJM7TdshUbw
td
February 1st, 2013
11:06 pm
One of my all time favorite songs with one of the best lines ever wrote.
“you can spend all your time making money
You can spend all your love making time
If it all fell to pieces tomorrow would you still be mine.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwASii2f5c8
Hillbilly D
February 1st, 2013
11:13 pm
There’s some really talented people on You-tube. For anybody is interested in music and what goes into it, this guy’s channel is worth a look. He breaks down Beatles’ songs, singing all the parts and explaining them. He’s a pretty good singer in his own right. Sometimes he breaks down the instrumentation, too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5XUQeYe118
Nite all.
@@
February 1st, 2013
11:19 pm
Bromancin’ on a Friday night?
I’ll leave you fellas to it.
Sailfish
February 1st, 2013
11:27 pm
“f tax cuts did not stimulate the economy, Reagan and Bush would not have had those economic numbers. Obama knows that, but instead of giving us 1T in tax cuts that would have made the economy soar, he chose to redistribute the trillion in government spending to help his friends and supporters.”
Absolute lunacy, that’s all I have to say…
Old Timer
February 2nd, 2013
12:10 am
You are now experiencing the BUBBLE before the BUST. Obama has a plan, one I don’t think you will like.
Numbers-R-US
February 2nd, 2013
6:48 am
If only we were more like Ireland, Kyle would think he were in heaven.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 2nd, 2013
7:33 am
“Under a law passed in 1932, Franklin Roosevelt became the first president subject to the income tax, but he refused to pay an increased rate that he helped enact in 1934. FDR insisted on paying the lower 1932 rates.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323701904578276210776108672.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
————————–
FDR: Typical hypocritical liberal fascist.
Sailfish
February 2nd, 2013
7:44 am
hillbilly d
That was pretty cool…of course lennon had a killer voice but so did paul and george and sometimes ringo! Back atcha-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvlfSaiZ3XM
Rightwing troll
February 2nd, 2013
8:00 am
Yeah cause the economy “soared” so high under all of W’s tax cuts and “rebates”…
Rightwing troll
February 2nd, 2013
8:01 am
Snirt…
indigo
February 2nd, 2013
8:34 am
Barry – 7:33
FDR was a great president and led us to victory in WWII. A lesser man might have lost that war for us and you probably would not even be here, ignorance.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
9:04 am
A leaked report by a United Nations’ group dedicated to climate studies says that heat from the sun may play a larger role than previously thought.
“[Results] do suggest the possibility of a much larger impact of solar variations on the stratosphere than previously thought, and some studies have suggested that this may lead to significant regional impacts on climate,” reads a draft copy of a major, upcoming report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Go figure. How many decades did it take the libs to ask themselves gee, what’s this giant hot glowing orb in the sky and what does it have to do with the Earth’s warmth? Nah, it must be this lawnmower that’s making it snow in June or maybe that cow over there in the field. Can I get a duh?
rwcole
February 2nd, 2013
9:25 am
If I ever agree w/ anything lil barry says, I would have to seriously reconsider my position. What a hammer!! I mean tool.
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
9:34 am
“Go figure. How many decades did it take the libs to ask themselves gee, what’s this giant hot glowing orb in the sky and what does it have to do with the Earth’s warmth? Nah, it must be this lawnmower that’s making it snow in June or maybe that cow over there in the field. Can I get a duh?”
Fox News breaks the story as reported by an internet blogger who read page 11 of a UN report in December. Glenn Beck’s the Blaze “news network” cherry picks and takes it out of context to advance a conspiracy theory, and Aesop, I Report, whomever starts the spread. Hilarious.
““The solar component is real but not of sufficient magnitude to have driven most of the warming of the late 20th century,” Pat Michaels, the former president of the American Association of State Climatologists, and current director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute, told FoxNews.com.
The U.N. report also says that the effect of solar activity will be “much smaller than the warming expected from increases in [man-made] greenhouse gases.”
An estimate from NASA said that solar variations caused 25 percent of the 1.1 degree Fahrenheit warming that has been observed over the past century.”
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
9:51 am
“FDR was a great president and led us to victory in WWII.”
Yeah, only after a sneak attack whose warnings his military leadership ignored forced him into a war he had previously stayed out of. Oh, and turning away a shipload of Jews fleeing extermination. That’s after he put us on a road to bankruptcy with Social Security.
Great president . . .
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
9:53 am
@LBB…”it sure is a good thing Obozo did away with that awful Medicare Part D, eh?”
It was the part where Duhbya just sorta kinda forgot to arrange funding that was and remains the problem…you know that whole deficit spending concept that Republicans harp on everytime a Democrat is in office and otherwise ignore.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
9:55 am
Oh, so now we got a REAL fake UN climate “change” report. Awesome.
State Climatologists currently exist in 47 states and Puerto Rico. They are typically either employees of state agencies or are staff members of state-supported universities.
RA goes straight to Anka, the state, for his information. Like Anka would say, yes, it’s just the sun, so, in fact, we can all go home now and shut the lights of on this giant apparatus we’ve created, stop sucking the tax payers and get real jobs, hahahahahahaha.
There, there, RA, it’ll be ok.
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:04 am
Anka? The State?
I quoted the climatologist at THE CATO INSTITUTE (founded by Charles Koch) as “reported” in the article from which you lifted your post, fool.
More reading and comprehension increases the ability to think for yourself.
MarkV
February 2nd, 2013
10:08 am
The global warming/climate change deniers make fools of themselves whenever they open their mouths or write a word, but they keep doing it, perhaps to provide us with some laughing matter.
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:09 am
“Yeah, only after a sneak attack whose warnings his FBI leadership ignored forced him into a war he had previously stayed out of. … Soon after he put us on a road to bankruptcy with TARP to address the subprime mortgage crisis.”
Change a few words, take things out of context and it Sounds like GWB and 9/11.
That’s how you do it Aesop.
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:12 am
@Rafe…the point that you and most of the rest of the Wingnuts around here don’t get is that making changes in something as large as the Federal budget takes a lot of time unless you want major upheaval in the interim. Clinton had it in balance and had Duhbya stayed the course with taxes and PAYGO there would have been swings but likely no more than /- $250 billion. Instead he changed the entire dynamic by increasing spending and decreasing revenue then just for good measure he grew spending faster than revenues. A perfect recipe for just what we got $1 Trillion deficits.
Now toss in a lost 4 years because of the economic meltdown and you get a cycle time to recovery of around 10 years. Which coincidentally you can see in the budget forecasts which shows an estimated deficit of around $600 billion. Now personally I would like to see that move a bit faster by growing revenues by a couple points more and cutting some spending to match, but that is my only complaint with the current direction.
Now back to Grampa’s shotgun and assault weapons…”They do not fire any faster than you can shoot a shotgun”…technically you are correct the actual act of firing a single shot takes the same time…however assault weapons can fire more times in a shorter period because they have a 30 round clip that can be reloaded in 2 seconds. Grampa has to reload after every shot. Which is why you don’t see the army storming an enemy position with a shotgun.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
10:14 am
Go figure, RA, the Right is open to the opinions of others, I know, what a surprise to a close minded lefty that must be. This specimen that you are quoting was born in the swaddling cloth of state level ignorance. I’ll be sure to boycott Cato for listening to him, uh huh.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:16 am
Changing the subject to GWB doesn’t discount the fallacy being promoted that FDR was a great President, Real Athens.
It just shows you as being intellectually bereft.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:17 am
“Clinton had it in balance”
Repeating this ad nauseum doesn’t make it so.
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:17 am
““f tax cuts did not stimulate the economy, Reagan and Bush would not have had those economic numbers.”
The fact that both grew government spending by more than 6.5% a year over 8 years had a lot to do with it.
indigo
February 2nd, 2013
10:19 am
Tiberius – 9:51
Try to understand.
It’s really not that hard.
Getting your history information from Rush, The NRA, The Republican Party and your fundamentalist pastor is really not the best way to learn.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
10:19 am
Plus, now that we’ve legitimized Cato, let’s hear what they have to say -
This is yet another example of our imperial government’s predilection towards “show science” in order to justify taking people’s stuff. By analogy, think of the “show trials” in some of history’s more freedom-loving regimes.
http://www.cato.org/blog/new-government-climate-change-report-yet-more-show-science
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:19 am
No, MarkV, we leave the laughing matter to you libs.
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:20 am
@Tiberus…”Yeah, only after a sneak attack whose warnings his military leadership ignored forced him into a war he had previously stayed out of. Oh, and turning away a shipload of Jews fleeing extermination. That’s after he put us on a road to bankruptcy with Social Security.”
A view from the alternate universe of Tiberiusville. Not intended to be be in anyway related to the world the rest of us inhabit.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:23 am
Indigo, is there ever going to come a time when you get something right?
Don’t listen to Rush (except for maybe 10 minutes every so often on the way to work during commercials on my other stations), I do NOT belong to the NRA, I am NOT a Republican and I AM an Agnostic.
But other than that, son, you’ve really nailed me.
Remember what happens when you assume something, Indigo?
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:26 am
” … the fallacy being promoted that FDR was a great President”
Repeating this ad nauseum doesn’t make it so. It just shows you as being intellectually bereft.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:28 am
JDW, the attack on Pearl Harbor and it’s warnings that were ignored is an historical fact. You’d know that if you read, you know, actual history.
FDR’s neutrality before Peal Harbor is an historical fact. You’d know that if you read, you know, actual history.
The shipload of Jewish refugees being turned away is an historical fact, which you’d know if you read, you know, actual history.
Social Security and other social programs are driving us to national bankruptcy, which you’d know if you could, you know, add and subtract.
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:29 am
On the subject of Great Presidents…
“Newsweek chose a panel of 10 distinguished historians to rank the 10 best presidents since 1900. Each of the historians below submitted top 10 lists; the final list was an average weighted by the number of mentions each president received.”
The list in order…
FDR (number 1 on every ballot)
Teddy Roosevelt
LBJ (that one surprised me a bit)
Wilson
Truman
JFK
Ike
Clinton
Ronnie Raygun
Obama
I go with the historians view vs. alternate realities
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:29 am
Wow, stating something once is now considered a “repeat” in Real Athens’ limited mind.
Where did you learn English, son?
The same place you learn to race pimp?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:32 am
JDW pulls out the AmVet defense when cornered.
A poll.
Yeah, JDW, let’s not think or apply critical thinking skills (a stretch for you, I know) when discussing historical figures.
Let’s just go with a poll.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
10:33 am
Newsweak, hahahahahaha
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:34 am
Aesop
You need not read any further than the lede of the Cato report you cite to get to the bottom of it.
“The 2013 report, as it now stands, tips the scales at over 1,000 pages, consequently, we haven’t made our way through it yet …” yet still they form an opinion on it.
Kind of like the Aesop, I Report method: Read the headline, look at the pictures, form an opinion and repeat what told. If somehow this method fails you (like your election predictions) change identity to avoid looking like a dunce.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
February 2nd, 2013
10:35 am
And a poll which puts President Incompetent in the Top 10?
Where did they find these “historians”? Hidden in the sub basement of the DNC?
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:37 am
Tiberius:
I didn’t get my schooling in Cumming, er, Forsyth County High. Sorry.
Your pointy hat is showing.
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:39 am
@Tiberius…you really are a maroon…
December 6 2008 “Historians say they have concluded the United States had no advance notice Japan intended to attack Pearl Harbor Dec. 7, 1941, settling a long-debated issue.”
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/12/06/Pearl-Harbor-warning-tale-debunked/UPI-21811228612980/
From Saving the Jews by Robert Rosen…”The SS St. Louis Incident — Here, a shipload of German Jewish refugees was turned away from Cuba and not permitted to dock in the United States. Rosen explains the behind-the-scenes attempts the Roosevelt administration made to convince Cuba to permit these Jews to enter; why making an exception in U.S. immigration policy was impossible; and how FDR’s camp arranged for the ship’s passengers (the majority of whom survived the war) to be taken in by other European countries and avoid being returned to Germany”
Please note the part about arranging new home countries.
As for FDR’s neutrality…yeah right…ever heard of Lend Lease
The rest is just a view from the selfish confines of Tiberiusville…where every human family exists in a vacuum contributing nothing to society other than the occasional stone cast from glass houses.
.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
February 2nd, 2013
10:39 am
But does attributing “more than 80% of this increase” since 1980 make any kind of sense at all? And how would you even go about doing that?
Probably the best way to do this would be to simply take the overall rate of temperature rise (0.13°F/decade) and multiply it by the number of decades between 1980 and now (3.3) and then divide by the overall temperature change (1.5°F). When you do this, you get 29% of the overall rise has occurred since 1980. Since 29% is nowhere close to being “more than 80%,” clearly this is not how the USGCRP authors made their determination.
Now, before we go any further, let’s get something straight—none of these methods for determining the proportionate amount of warming is statistically sound because the nature of temperature rise in the U.S. during the last 118 years is not strictly linear. Instead, there are multi-decadal periods of rising and falling temperatures (see Figure 1). So attempting to describe the proportional change over some period of time is cherry-picking by design.
Didn’t form an opinion, eh?
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:44 am
Tibby the U.S. at the time was just as anti-semitic as the rest of the world. Henry Ford supported the NAZI’s and Charles Lindbergh was an avowed racist, like yourself. Put things in historical context.
“Th St. Louis sailed from Hamburg in May 1939, carrying one non-Jewish and 936 (mainly German) Jewish refugees seeking asylum from Nazi persecution.
On the ship’s arrival in Cuba, the Cuban government under Federico Laredo Brú refused the passengers both entry as tourists or political asylum. This prompted a near-mutiny. Two passengers attempted suicide and dozens more threatened to do the same. However, 29 of the refugees did manage to disembark at Havana.
On June 4, 1939, the St. Louis was also refused permission to land her passengers under orders from President Roosevelt as the ship waited between Florida and Cuba.
The St. Louis then tried to enter Canada but was denied permission as well.
The ship returned to Europe, first stopping in the United Kingdom, where 288 of the passengers disembarked. The remaining 619 passengers disembarked at Antwerp; 224 were accepted by France, 214 by Belgium, and 181 into the Netherlands.
Looks like nobody on this side of the pond wanted them.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_St._Loui…
JDW
February 2nd, 2013
10:45 am
@Tiberius…”JDW pulls out the AmVet defense when cornered. A poll. Yeah, JDW, let’s not think or apply critical thinking skills (a stretch for you, I know) when discussing historical figure. Let’s just go with a poll.”
No you maroon a research study that consolidates the view of top experts in the field…see that’s your problem…you can’t learn any more. You think you know everything and refuse to listen to the innumerable number of people surrounding you that in fact know more than you.
See that is one of the key factors that define success…the ability to learn from others that know more about a given subject than you.
MarkV
February 2nd, 2013
10:46 am
JDW,
How can you prefer the opinion of 10 distinguished historians over the infinite wisdom of Tiberius? It would be like preferring the conclusion of 97% of world climatologists over the expertise of Aesop (the one on this blog)! A travesty!
Real Athens
February 2nd, 2013
10:50 am
Aesop “Didn’t form an opinion, eh?”
I said they formed an opinion (by their own admission) without reading the full report. Thanks for solidifying my 10:34 post.
Unreal.