Stock gains don’t make up for continued sluggishness in economy, job market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average today briefly touched the 14000 mark, before falling slightly. As I write, it’s hovering right around that level, the first time it’s done so since late 2007. The broader S&P 500 is at a five-year high, about 3 percent off its all-time peak in October 2007. The Nasdaq is at a 10-year high, though it’s significantly lower than its tech-bubble peak. In all, though, these major indices finally are back to roughly where they were before the housing crash and Great Recession (as long as we don’t adjust them for inflation, that is).
Yet, earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the unemployment rate had ticked upward to 7.9 percent even though more people had stopped looking for work than found a job. At January’s rate of job growth (157,000 net jobs created), it would take until at least 2025 to regain pre-recession employment levels. At the rate for all of 2012 (an upwardly revised 181,000), it would take “only” until 2022, a decade and a half after employment peaked.
And yesterday, the Commerce Department said the economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first negative quarter since mid-2009. The economy is an estimated 14 percent smaller than it would have been if it had grown since 2008 at the long-term average of 3.1 percent a year. That’s some $2.25 trillion of economic production that never came into existence.
The reason for continued market advances in the face of sluggish economic news might be summarized by this quote from the Wall Street Journal:
“Any not-bad news is helping this market,” said Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners, a New York brokerage. “If we get great news, good news, or okay news, it’s still going to make our screens green.”
“Not-bad” is not exactly indicative of a boom. If this quarter were to repeat last quarter’s performance, the above numbers are where the Obama Recovery would have left us: barely back to zero for investors, still well below it for job-seekers and economic growth.
This is the reality wrought by the primary economic policy of the past four years — trying to jump-start the private sector via government spending and monetary expansion. All the spending and expansion hasn’t translated into robust private-sector growth. Four years later, there’s little reason to believe a boom is just around the corner.
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
557 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
1:33 pm
Bush didn’t cause the financial meltdown, he fixed it. Nearly all the TARP money has been paid back. The recession ended in June 2009.
The economy of the last couple of years belongs completely to Obozo. Unemployment is worse under Obozo than it ever was under Our President Bush. Poverty–worse. Deficits–worse. Growth–worse.
Bush: Far superior to Obozo.
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:34 pm
O’ and Kyle…a public sector decline of 1.33 PLUS a impact of inventories decline of 1.27 (your source not mine) equals a total impact of 2.6 which coincidentally is just what I said in the beginning.
curious
February 1st, 2013
1:35 pm
Enter your comments here
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:36 pm
@Kyle…”That’s the problem with the Obama Recovery. It’s so poor, we keep focused on the short run forever…”
Until the Republicans either split into two parties or come to the table we may be right here until the House is flipped…maybe 2014 at the rate of recent self inflicted wounds.
curious
February 1st, 2013
1:37 pm
Barry,
You’ve convinced me of how much better things were under Pres. Bush.
You need to turn your attention to the Republican party. They don’t seem to have gotten the message.
JF McNamara
February 1st, 2013
1:39 pm
So what’s the plan? Cut taxes? Cutting spending increases unemployment as that is job cuts. You can’t increase spending and provide stimulus, because Republicans don’t want to.
It’s not a one sided problem. One side is the constraining the other from doing anything and then assigning blame…
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:40 pm
@LBB…”Bush didn’t cause the financial meltdown, he fixed it”
O look…a flying pig…wearing a skirt…smoking a cigar…LBB hurrry it needs lipstick!
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
1:40 pm
Unemployment is lower since Republicans took control of the House in 2010.
You were saying?
sailfish
February 1st, 2013
1:41 pm
barry
Living in your fantasy world about bush? Try this –
“In fact, Democrat Bill Clinton left his Republican predecessor, George Bush, budget surpluses as far as the eye could see. What caused the explosion of Federal debt were the Bush tax cuts, and two unpaid-for wars. But even those deficits were dropping as a percent of GDP until the economy collapsed. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that they would continue to drop and turn into a surplus by 2012 — had it not been for the Bush economic collapse that lead to the Great Recession. The recession caused tax revenue to plummet, and expenditures for Federal programs like unemployment to increase. That is what caused deficits to spike to from below 2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 10 percent in 2009.”
read more http://truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/item/17783-the-verdict-is-in-gop-austerity-proposals-are-toxic-for-our-economy
Just Saying..
February 1st, 2013
1:41 pm
Lil Bar: “The recession ended in June 2009.”
And I’ve been trying to tell everybody that for three years now…
Kyle Wingfield
February 1st, 2013
1:41 pm
If I misread you, JDW, perhaps it’s because the preceding sentence was: “Yet you leave out one very important detail…the REASON behind the fourth quarter rate is almost ENTIRELY governmental.”
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
1:42 pm
That’s right, JDW, Our President Bush’s leadership led to TARP, which prevented further meltdown caused by folks borrowing too much money and not paying it back. Most of the TARP money has been paid back. It was a huge success.
Don’t fear facts.
Kyle Wingfield
February 1st, 2013
1:42 pm
If you don’t want a word to be read with emphasis, maybe you should lay off the CAPS.
Just Saying..
February 1st, 2013
1:45 pm
Off-topic: Scott Brown won’t run. Wow.
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:46 pm
@Kyle…I stand behind the statement….the REASON behind the fourth quarter rate is almost ENTIRELY governmental.
Decline of 1.33% in direct government impact
PLUS
Decline of 1.27% in inventories mostly caused by government…read Republican…inflicted uncertainty.
EQUALS
A net impact of – 2.6%
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:47 pm
@Kyle…”If you don’t want a word to be read with emphasis, maybe you should lay off the CAPS.”
But I can’t use my HANDS when blogging!
retiredds
February 1st, 2013
1:47 pm
Nice try Kyle, but you guys (you and the other cons), keep trying to justify your completely missing the mark. This recovery is proceeding as it should and will only improve over the next two to three years. Keep up your weak commentary that seems to make you feel good. The smart money continues to bet on the economy, not the blathering of you cons who have no clue.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
1:50 pm
“This recovery is proceeding as it should”
—————–
“Recovery” implies economic growth.
Not happening.
Obozo: Incompetent.
JDW
February 1st, 2013
1:54 pm
@…”Our President Bush’s leadership led to TARP”
BAWWWWWWWHHHAAAAAAA…YOUR President Duhbya was at least smart enough to know he had stepped in it….which is more than you can say for the most of the rest of the Republicans….
TARP vote counts
In the House Republican 91 Yea; 108 Nay
In the Senate Republican 33 Yea; 15 Nay
Just Saying..
February 1st, 2013
1:54 pm
“Obozo: Incompetent.”
As he demonstrated in his campaign against Mitt Romney…
Road Scholar
February 1st, 2013
1:58 pm
Off topic: Scott Brown not running for Kerry’s senate seat!
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/01/brown-wont-seek-mass-senate-seat/
MarkV
February 1st, 2013
2:00 pm
I disagree with Dusty so often that I have to enjoy the rare occasion of agreement with her post (@12:14 pm), even if she might reject its interpretation.
What Kyle has written is a written equivalent of snickering: There is something in the news that is positive for the economy, but look at something else, and that is not so good, snicker, snicker, how good does I feel that the news is not really all good, because if it were good he would have nothing to write about.
And in the end we get the usual “expert opinion,” that it is “the reality wrought by the primary economic policy of the past four years.” Kyle cannot provide any evidence that a different policy would have produced a better result, but he can he can always make an empty claim.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
2:02 pm
Did Our President Bush not propose TARP? He did. Did he lead the effort to get it passed? Indeed he did. Did he sign his own bill? Yep.
Did the recession end in June 2009? Yes again.
How did Obozo blow it so badly?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
2:07 pm
MarkV: There is something in the news that is positive for the economy
———————–
How far did unemployment fall as a result of the Dow going over 14,000? How many folks got off welfare? How much was the deficit reduced? Did the Dow feed a hungry child today?
Rush
February 1st, 2013
2:08 pm
Oh look….old witch doctor (dds) woke from his slumber to inform the blissfully ignorant “cons” that up is down, down is up and a negative growth in GDP is good. He/she/it must write for Big Brother.
Rush
February 1st, 2013
2:10 pm
Obozo presidential victory = white liberal guilt
Liberal Lies
February 1st, 2013
2:14 pm
Don’t believe this for a minute, the “Liberal Media” is just making this up. Those dang leftist corporations are making record profits and my 401k is going up like crazy. The whole thing is wrong. If Romney had wont he Dow would be at 15000 by now.
JDW
February 1st, 2013
2:15 pm
@LBB…”Did Our President Bush not propose TARP? He did. Did he lead the effort to get it passed? Indeed he did. Did he sign his own bill? Yep”
Nope Henry Paulson proposed TARP…Duhbya shut up and did as told…Cheney trained him well
Nope Harry Reid brought it back from the dead after the House Republicans voted no and the market crashed
Yep…he can write his own name…I think
Dusty
February 1st, 2013
2:16 pm
Hmmm, things not looking so good here.
Out of 70 comments, 15 were made by JDW. Five replies by Kyle to JDW
If this were a horse race, I ‘d say JDW was ahead by a nose. No betting allowed.
Now back to the sunshine.
indigo
February 1st, 2013
2:17 pm
Barry – “the recession ended in June 2009″
Tell that to all those still unemployed after years of fruitless job searching.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
2:19 pm
JDW: Nope Henry Paulson proposed TARP…Duhbya shut up and did as told
——————
JDW just gave up.
Your complete, total, and unconditional surrender are accepted.
Dusty
February 1st, 2013
2:20 pm
Uh oh I just noticed that MarkV AGREED with me on something!!!!!!!!
I think that I shall go off and cry….
retiredds
February 1st, 2013
2:25 pm
revised government data showed that the economy added 335,000 more jobs than originally estimated during all of 2012, including an additional 150,000 in the last quarter of the year. That was on top of the previously reported fourth-quarter job growth of 603,000 and 2012 growth of 2.2 million. (U.S. Labor Dept. report).
JDW
February 1st, 2013
2:27 pm
@Dusty….”If this were a horse race, I ‘d say JDW was ahead by a nose. No betting allowed. ”
O come on a three to one advantage and it’s a nose…as for betting, if we had gambling we would have more than 70 comments.
JDW
February 1st, 2013
2:29 pm
@LBB…”Your complete, total, and unconditional surrender are accepted.”
Hummmm that sounds really familar…where have I heard that load of rubbish before
… 
Reality
February 1st, 2013
2:33 pm
Kyle….
If nothing else, what you point out is EXACTLY what the Democrats have said throughout the Bush(s) terms – their policies have made the most wealthy even more wealthy and the middle class suffers.
Yes, the stock market is now doing well. The wealthy can invest their disposable income and are doing so.
Yes, the job market is stagnate (for now). The middle class is struggling to recover while the most wealthy have money to play with.
Get it now? I certainly hope so!
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
2:33 pm
retiredds: 335,000 more jobs…an additional 150,000…job growth of 603,000
————————
And yet, there are no more people working today than when Obozo took office four years ago.
Dusty
February 1st, 2013
2:46 pm
JDW
Of course it’s gambling. Goes on all day. I did so. You did not. Did so. Did not. Aint worth 50 cents. You aint got no sense. Dropped on Wall Street. Did not. Did so. Tremendous improvement. Failed! Gotcha coming and going. You have not. Have so! No interest! I’m interested! Bush did it. Obama lost it. I worked in a bank You worked at McDonalds. Did not! Did so!
Goes on all day at Kyle’s Kindergarten. Winners are rewarded a pass for good behavior. Losers clog the blog and shut it down.
For any further analysis, there is a charge of 50 dollars. Is not! Is too! Cash accepted.
I think I hear someone calling. Uh oh.
Sailfish
February 1st, 2013
2:48 pm
barry
It’s one thing to be critical of president obama, which is ok but you really lose credibility by burying your head in the sand about bush. When you look at the job losses beginning in sept 08 thru june 09, we lost close to a million jobs a month! Now how much tax revenue was lost along with it in every business across the books? The deficit was mostly incurred by your hero george bush’s tenure – sorry that the truth hurts.
Politico
February 1st, 2013
2:52 pm
“Your complete, total, and unconditional surrender are accepted.”
Kyle: get this little fella a gold ribbon. Between he and Tiberius, have the bloggers in their minds as surrendered to them. Might even be worth a weeks supply of the dead wood edition.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
2:53 pm
Sailfish: The deficit was mostly incurred by your hero george bush’s tenure
———————
Our President Bush never ran, much less proposed, a trillion dollar deficit. Your messiah does it every year.
Head in the sand? You.
ad
February 1st, 2013
2:56 pm
I give Wingfield credit for leaving up his misreading of JDW’s post and his misinformed response thereto.
Politico
February 1st, 2013
2:57 pm
“Our President Bush never ran, much less proposed, a trillion dollar deficit”
he loves to lie about this he do…………….
See 2009 project deficit projection
retiredds
February 1st, 2013
2:58 pm
Lil B: your problem is you keep living in the past
Politico
February 1st, 2013
2:59 pm
“Lil B: your problem is you keep living in the past”
Give her a break. When it is all you, it is all you have
CC
February 1st, 2013
3:01 pm
No individual or nation can borrow its way out of debt nor spend itself wealthy. Prolonging the inevitable does not prevent it.
Remember folks, it isn’t the fall from the top of a forty-story building that kills, it is the abrupt halt at the end of the fall.
And Hussein continues unimpeded on his course to destroy America . . .
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
February 1st, 2013
3:01 pm
Living in the past? Unlike the Bush-blamers, eh?
Your messiah is a failure. You voted for an America-hating liberal fascist. It’s the present and future Real Americans are concerned with and Obozo threatens it.
Dusty
February 1st, 2013
3:03 pm
Where’s Bruno? Isn’t there a song about the “Million Dollar Baby”? “Trillion Dollar Baby”?
I think they are writing a new song in Washington: “Reaching for Heaven When There aint NO Ceiling”..
Skip
February 1st, 2013
3:07 pm
I long for the good old days, 750,000 jobs a month lost. Kyle and his merry band could spin puppy’s and Kitty’s as bad news.
retiredds
February 1st, 2013
3:07 pm
bye, bye LB