Why the fiscal cliff debate is like a poker hand — and the GOP is losing a lot of chips
Here’s how I see Speaker John Boehner’s failure to pass his own Plan B tax plan in the House last night:
Some people liken these fiscal-cliff negotiations to playing chess or checkers, as one unnamed, senior House Republican did in this excellent write-up of the post-failure mood in the House by National Review’s Robert Costa. Assuming I understand correctly why and how that metaphor is being made, I think it’s inapt because it suggests this debate is proceeding in isolation from everything else Congress has done in the past and will do in the future.
I think it’s much more like one hand in a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, with the chips representing political capital. With both poker chips and political capital, having more means you have more leverage — because those who have less than you don’t have as much margin for error. They have to play it a bit safer.
This particular game of poker, in which House Republicans face President Obama and the Senate Democrats, has been going on for two years. The GOP had no seat at the table following the 2008 election and had to watch Democrats play each other in hands we’ll call the Stimulus, Auto Bailout and Obamacare. The way those hands went dictated the results of the 2010 elections, which put the House Democrats out of the game and allowed the GOP to buy back in.
Between the 2010 elections and the 2012 elections, there were a few small pots and one big one, for the Debt Ceiling. President Obama and the House GOP both put a lot of chips on the table for that one, but it turned out they were both holding a pair of 2’s and so they split the pot. (In reality, it was a bit more like the chips on the table were vaporized and everyone was worse off politically, but hey, there’s no perfect metaphor.)
Heading into the 2012 elections, each player had roughly the same size pile of chips, and a lot at stake. The victory by Obama and the somewhat larger majorities for Senate Democrats meant the House GOP’s pile was smaller than it was before. They weren’t out of the game by a long shot, but they were staring at players with larger piles. So they had to be very canny with how they played the next big hand, the Fiscal Cliff.
As the players kept making bets, the pot kept getting larger. The House GOP obviously didn’t know which cards the other two players were holding, but it knew its hand was decent — certainly not a royal flush, but we’ll say it was three of a kind (Boehner’s Plan B) with two more cards to be revealed (how Senate Democrats and then Obama reacted if Plan B passed the House). That meant the GOP could possibly wind up with four of a kind and significantly boost its odds of winning the hand.
There were signs the other two were bluffing, especially the confidence Senate Democrats were showing (in saying all day Thursday there’s no way Plan B would pass the Senate, a very good sign Senate Democrats didn’t want to have to vote it down and be seen rejecting steady tax rates for 99.8 percent of taxpayers).
Boehner seemed to believe this hand was his best bet to win more chips and thus leverage for future hands, and he put even more chips in the pot (by rolling out Plan B publicly). But before Senate Democrats could raise or call, he suddenly folded instead. In poker, no one tells the player what he has to do, but in Congress, that does happen to leaders sometimes.
As a result, the House GOP is basically left watching as Obama and the Senate Democrats play out this hand. Republicans now have a lot fewer chips, and even though a lot of them have a good feeling about the cards they’ll be holding when the next hand is dealt — the next round of the Debt Ceiling — there are no guarantees. And, with fewer chips, they’ll have to be even more careful and wily when playing that hand.
Maybe winning a comparatively smaller pot in that next hand will boost the GOP’s odds in the larger game going forward. Maybe someone else will come and sit at the table to play that hand instead of Boehner (I don’t know if the speaker erred by taking his plan public without knowing he had the votes or committed the larger sin of being unable to keep the votes he thought he had, but neither possibility bodes well for his ability to hang on as speaker). Maybe this will turn out well for Republicans.
But I don’t see how.
P.S. — No, my chief concern in this debate is not what happens to the Republican Party. But it seems to me that Democrats now are well-positioned, if they want, to make sure taxes don’t rise for good on people earning less than $200,000 per year ($250,000 for married couples) while raising them on everyone else. While I don’t think that ultimately would be good for the country, it seems likely to me that that’s what will happen at this point no matter what — which is why I’ve focused today on the politics of it all.
(UPDATE at 6 p.m.: I am signing off the blog until after the holidays, so comments will be going through moderation until I’m back on Jan. 2. In the meantime, have a merry Christmas and a joyous start to 2013!)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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168 comments Add your comment
CC
December 21st, 2012
2:00 pm
“Nope, all they have to do is come up with something the American people support. Which coincidentally is pretty much what they have proposed so far. Then it will be up to the House Republicans to reject it at their peril.”
More taxes, more spending and NO cuts in spending sounds like a wonderful Obama dream!
When my son was eight years old, he declared his intention to jump off the roof of our house. It seemed like a great idea for an eight-year-old who could not see the danger inherent in his wish. I see little difference in that scenario and “something the American people support”.
Centrist
December 21st, 2012
2:01 pm
breckenridge posted “The problem is that there are too many House republicans who are simply uncompromising ideologues.”
While I certainly don’t disagree with that, what about the reverse in the Senate? They were the ones who blocked Obama’s and Boehner’s “Grand Bargain in the middle of 2011.
It is tough to get a centrist agreement with split government. We’re going to need enough minority Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in the House to overcome the majority party idealogues in Congress if we are going to avoid sequestration and across the board tax increases.
IMO Boehner is a little closer to the middle right now than Obama. I think it will take a gradual increase in Medicare age eligibilty to get to the needed spending cuts for an overall deal, and Democrats/Obama say that is currently off the table. Maybe next month.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 21st, 2012
2:03 pm
You greedy Democrats need to quit begging for your Bush tax cuts to continue, and start paying your fair share. We’re all in this together.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 21st, 2012
2:05 pm
Here’s an idea: How about the House and Senate do their jobs, beginning with the House drafting legislation, going through the committee process, and then vote it up or down?
nathan's political arsonist
December 21st, 2012
2:08 pm
its headed in the right direction for the american public. f the GOP and the rich
iggy
December 21st, 2012
2:14 pm
Glad is not strip poker. And the particaption of Nasty Pelosi would make it horrific. ACK!!!
Just Saying..
December 21st, 2012
2:16 pm
Kyle, this may not be the Friday you were hoping for. The AJC reports that the NRA wants, beyond the armed officer at each school, a model program led by a former congressman (guess which Party) for armed volunteers at schools.
2 to 12 George Zimmermans for our children. Because volunteers with guns would NEVER kill an unarmed student. Or end a fight with a double tap to the head.
But I know you’ll be able to persuade any doubters, with some Righteous Logic, as to why it’ll make us all safer. Take a coupla days. Should be easy…
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 21st, 2012
2:18 pm
I heard exactly what I had hoped from the NRA: “Stuff it, liberal fascists”
iggy
December 21st, 2012
2:21 pm
“2 to 12 George Zimmermans for our children.”
Wow…that rich.
PS…Watch Zimmerman get just slap on the wrist, which is the Most he deserves. HA HA!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 21st, 2012
2:34 pm
The Cons got played?
Again?
carlosgvv
December 21st, 2012
2:36 pm
iggy – “watch Zimmerman get just a slap on the wrist”
And then, watch blacks all over the country start to riot.
CC
December 21st, 2012
2:41 pm
“Glad is not strip poker. And the particaption of Nasty Pelosi would make it horrific. ACK!!!”
Best birth control method I can think of . . .
CC
December 21st, 2012
2:42 pm
“And then, watch blacks all over the country start to riot.”
That’s unusual?
Centrist
December 21st, 2012
2:42 pm
For the House to follow a possible Obama – Boehner deal on taxes and spending, it may not happen for 5 or 6 weeks because these 4 very conservative members were a big part of killing Boehner’s Plan B, but will not be in the new Congress at the end of January:
Jeff Landry of LA
Ron Paul of TX
Jean Schmidt of OH
Joe Walsh of IL
Dusty
December 21st, 2012
2:48 pm
At this point, I don’t care what they do in Congress. I don’t care what Obama does either. I don’t care because I have become numb from the constant rebellion against reason and fiscal soundness in Washington..
Kyle is correct in picturing our government leaders as game players. . It is a game.and only a game except it is the country they gamble with like silly losers.
I will read in the news how this wrestling match ends. I’ll complain at tax time and vote in the next election. But neither of those does any good. Washington continues like a battle of spitballs at the OK Corral. Meanwhile the country hurridly heads for Cemetery Hill. Pack your bags for the ride..
Michael H. Smith
December 21st, 2012
2:49 pm
We shall see how the people view this no deal making dealing, Kyle.
obumer saying in effect the Republicans just want do what I want them to do isn’t going to win him many chips either my friend.
JamVet
December 21st, 2012
2:52 pm
Just keep losing elections, bigoted cons. That is the most beneficial thing we can have in this republic right now.
And if you think the past six years have been horrible for you, you are really gonna hate the next six!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 21st, 2012
2:56 pm
Dusty, quit complaining and embrace the Christmas spirit, fer cryin’ out loud….already.
Just Saying..
December 21st, 2012
2:57 pm
Dusty: “At this point, I don’t care what they do in Congress. I don’t care what Obama does either. I don’t care because I have become numb from the constant rebellion against reason and fiscal soundness in Washington.”
For the life of me, Dusty, I can’t understand why other countries don’t want to be just like us…
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 21st, 2012
2:57 pm
Obama doesn’t need to do anything. With no deal, on January 2nd the Dems will introduce a tax cut for those making under $200,000.
Cons will have to agree to it.
Michael H. Smith
December 21st, 2012
3:02 pm
obumer has no less onus to reach the compromise than does the GOP.
It takes two to make a deal and it takes two not to compromise.
obumer is not off the hook.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 21st, 2012
3:02 pm
from twitter regarding LaHood’s wish to add armed guards to schools:
if only we had armed guards at Fort Hood
true dat.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 21st, 2012
3:04 pm
Another good one:
I played a ton of Mario Kart as a kid, which is why I’m always throwing bananas out of my car.
Michael H. Smith
December 21st, 2012
3:05 pm
In fact, obumer has more to prove in making a deal, because he has been RIGHTLY TAG as unable to do what other President’s in the past have done: Which is to work his will with members of the opposite party, as did Reagan and Clinton.
Dusty
December 21st, 2012
3:14 pm
I have the Christmas spirit, FINN. But I did not lose reality while enjoying it.
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
3:15 pm
“blackbird13 @ 1:22: It’s never checkmate, because neither side ever wins an issue forever. Disagree? Take a look at what people were saying about gun control as a politically viable issue just two months ago.”
Well, of course there’s always another game, but in terms of tax rates during this “game,” Obama’s second term, they are going up no matter what. By agreeing to the fiscal cliff, Republicans in Congress put themselves in “check”; the election put them in checkmate.
Centrist
December 21st, 2012
3:17 pm
Finn posted “With no deal, on January 2nd the Dems will introduce a tax cut for those making under $200,000.
Cons will have to agree to it.”
That is about what Kyle said at the end of the initial blog – but I don’t think so. We may have to see how bad the fiscal cliff is for the economy, and even then the House can pass a bill with their own version of tax increases (revert back to Bush brackets plus new bracket above $750K) and spending cuts including phasing in Medicare age eligibility. Senate would certainly amend – but there would be pressure on Senate, House, and Obama to agree and sign – well above the $200K tax threshold that has already been abandoned by Obama.
Dusty
December 21st, 2012
3:18 pm
JUST SAYING, we are the greatest country in the world.
Some are trying to be just like us. Greece and Spain have gone just a little too far.
Lynnie Gal
December 21st, 2012
3:25 pm
It was my understanding that Plan B wasn’t only tax hikes, but maybe it was an additional bill lumped next to it that cut food stamps and meals on wheels. Boehner added those to sweeten the deal to lure Republicans to tax increases on millionaires, by letting them kick the poor in the gut a little bit before Christmas. It’s Republican’s favorite sport.
Just Saying..
December 21st, 2012
3:25 pm
…we are the greatest country in the world.”
…without a functioning government…
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
3:30 pm
“Senate would certainly amend – but there would be pressure on Senate, House, and Obama to agree and sign – well above the $200K tax threshold that has already been abandoned by Obama.”
The abandonment of the 200k threshold may be off the table (the Medicare age increase is definitely off the table) after Boeher’s gambit blew up. Since Obama can order Geithner not to change witholding, the income tax increase will not be felt for wage earners immediatley. I think the pressure is going to come on the sequestration side, which hits defense the hardest.
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
3:34 pm
“It was my understanding that Plan B wasn’t only tax hikes, but maybe it was an additional bill lumped next to it that cut food stamps and meals on wheels.”
That’s correct. The bill changed the defense cuts in the sequestration to social program cuts. That part of “Plan B” passed, but will go nowhere.
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 21st, 2012
3:38 pm
JDW
Then it will be up to the House Republicans to reject it at their peril.
The American people have said they support significant spending cuts. All Obama has proposed, regarding reduced spending so far, is more silliness. Just because low information voters think he is cool, handsome, hip, like him, love him, want to have his baby, and think he is our lord and savior, does not mean they support all his policies. His regime is more of a cult of personality than one of ideological purity. Many of his voters don’t know what ideology is, or what his ideology is.
@@
December 21st, 2012
3:39 pm
They’ve left for the holidays?
From what I’ve seen, Harry never returned from Christmas 2011.
Let us fall….let us fall….let us fall.
Centrist
December 21st, 2012
3:41 pm
@ blackbird13 – liberals (especially the media) pretend that Boehner lost Plan B because of more liberal members of the House, when it was just the opposite. This from Politico today: “Boehner told reporters that he was unable to pass a bill with a $1 million threshold because enough members thought it would be considered a tax increase. By that logic, a $250,000 doesn’t stand a chance.”
Of course the $400K threshold is still on the table, the new bottom line and Obama indicated he would go higher. The Constitution states that tax bills must start in the House. They are not about start one with threshold for higher taxes below Obama’s latest offer of $400K, even if they include greater domestic spending cuts.
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
3:46 pm
I think we’d be better off in the long term if all the fiscal cliff provisions stayed in place. The Pentagon can close some of the 200+ golf courses they operate. Everone, including the middle class, can start paying more for the level of government that a clear majority of the country desires. If only there were a substantial gas tax hike in this fiscal cliff, it’d be a slam dunk winner.
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
3:54 pm
“Of course the $400K threshold is still on the table, the new bottom line and Obama indicated he would go higher.”
But what maybe you’re forgetting is that once the new year comes, tax rate go up and then anything Democrats agree to will be a tax cut, even if the threshold were 100k. So Republicans will have to vote against or not bring up a vote on a tax cut. And after the new members are seated, it would take less than 20 Republicans to join with House Democrats to a pass a tax cut on those under 250k. The big IF is Boehner, and whether he will bring it up or continue to try and preserve his speakership.
Centrist
December 21st, 2012
3:58 pm
I agree with blackbird13 on maybe being better off accepting the fiscal cliff provisions – unless it really does shock the economy into recession. We may have to test that, or House/Senate/President come to a softer agreement after Christmas or in the 1st quarter of next year.
I am certain that the House is not going to agree to Obama’s current negotiation position (any more than he or the Senate will agree with the Boehner’s current position). This is a lot like union – management negotiations just before a strike deadline. The deadline may get pushed back, there may be an agreement, or there may be a strike with further negotiations. We’re likely to feel some pain before we get more concessions from both sides – but who knows if the House and Senate will ratify a tentative agreement.
Politico
December 21st, 2012
3:59 pm
Centrist
The quote you posted infers nothing about moderate or “liberal” Republican House members. It was a quote from the Speaker and the only inference is in your own mind
getalife
December 21st, 2012
4:01 pm
The gop are still trying to get our President.
That is the game they play.
Disband.
Dusty
December 21st, 2012
4:03 pm
Harry Reed.
Frail knight without a steed.
Obama
The charmer without karma
Joe Biden
Who should be in hiden’
Hillary
Married to tomfoolery
And next to make us merry
Comes purple heart John Kerry.
Oh what gifts the Dems do give us!
Aser796
December 21st, 2012
4:03 pm
President Obama’s American Recinvery and Reinvestment Act…. The gift that keeps on taking.
blackbird13
December 21st, 2012
4:15 pm
@centrist
“liberals (especially the media) pretend that Boehner lost Plan B because of more liberal members of the House, when it was just the opposite. ”
I’ve seen no such commentary from the media. It’s been widely reported by all the outlets that Boehner’s plan failed because an unknown number of Republicans refused to vote for a tax increase on people making over a million dollars a year.
the red herring
December 21st, 2012
4:18 pm
i think letting obama own his mess would be a winner since he formed simpson/bowles and then wanted nothing to do with their recommendations. obama also said he needed 800 billion in new taxes then upped the ante to 1.6 trillion. obama has offered nothing in the way of spending cuts (other than ones that weren’t counted in the budget to start with– medicare cuts that went to obamacare and cuts due to ending the wars). so if we have to go off the cliff to get the spending cuts to go along with tax increases then perhaps that’s the best for the country—take the pain over the next few years in order to get the country at least headed towards a balanced budget which is where we need to be. if you can’t stand up for what you believe in then therein lies the problem.
getalife
December 21st, 2012
4:22 pm
Dusty,
w was a disaster and your party can’t even run a party.
Try holding your party accountable for their failures for a change.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 21st, 2012
4:51 pm
Well, it appears as though the Mayan Cataclysm has petered out, much like global warming did.
A bunch of pillow clutching liberals running around shrieking and then bang, nothing happens.
When have we seen this picture before?
If you really want to know when the world is going to end, it will be the first time a democrat tells the truth. The North and South poles would switch up, the center of the Earth would explode, the seas would drain out and our time on this planet will be ova.
But I know that’ll never happen. It’s impossible for a lib to be honest.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
December 21st, 2012
4:54 pm
You mean the Senate website run by Democrats, Politico?
Got it.
Just because you don’t understand how the Senate operates,, doesn’t mean the rest of the real world doesn’t.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 21st, 2012
4:55 pm
I heard that when the first baby was born to a democrat, the doctor slapped the mother.
Cons Need To Know When To Hold 'Em, Fold "Em and Know When To Walk Away
December 21st, 2012
4:56 pm
” What “spending hikes”? Plan B was only about taxes.”
Cons LOVE THE RICH. Ain’t that RICH.
DON’T blame Democrats because CONS don’t want to
raise taxes on the RICH.
DON’T blame the Democrats BECAUSE you just
got THROWN UNDER THE BUS because you are POOR.
DON’T blame the Democrats BECAUSE you just
got STABBED IN THE BACK because you are not RICH.
DON’T blame the Democrats BECAUSE you just
got BAMBOOZLED by your OWN CONS.
“If you ain’t RICH….BLAME YOURSELF.” Herman Cain
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
December 21st, 2012
4:58 pm
Ive finally come to the realization that neither party is willing to fix the fiscal mess they equally contributed to, so give the Dems everything they want. It will just kill the country faster and we can start over once the fires burn out.