Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate
I have deliberately waited to comment on the horrific mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., for a variety of reasons. Not least was the abundance of wrongly reported “facts” early on that made it difficult for someone hundreds of miles away from the story to feel confident about even the basics of the case; this story was not exactly the news media’s finest hour.
Still more important is the impropriety, in my view, of too soon devoting words at a time such as this to anything other than the victims and their families. They deserve better than to be gathered up as evidence for a policy debate within mere hours of their terrible deaths.
Eventually, though, those of us outside Newtown have to grapple with whether there is something we can do to prevent the evil and the insane among us from committing other such acts of wickedness.
As someone who is generally opposed to making our gun laws stricter, and who believes proponents of gun control have spent years making their case to the public without success, I don’t keep a lot of crime statistics at the ready. Here are some facts I’ve been able to gather that might surprise some of you:
- The steps we’ve already taken — including longer jail terms for dangerous offenders (and, yes, some nonviolent offenders) and smarter policing methods — have resulted in a steady drop in violent crime in the U.S. over the past few decades. In 2010, violent crime reached a 40-year low nationally. The U.S. rate of assault deaths per 100,000 people has fallen almost in half since the late 1970s.
- During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.
- Along with the generally lower incidence of violent crime, mass killings have also been on the decline: from 42 in the 1990s to 26 in the following decade.
- One thing has been consistent about mass shootings for more than a half-century. According to economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999 and spoke with National Review’s John Fund after the Newtown massacre: “With just one single exception, the attack on congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson in 2011, every public shooting since at least 1950 in the U.S. in which more than three people have been killed has taken place where citizens are not allowed to carry guns.”
- Schools and shopping malls are common spots. But Lott also noted this fact about the shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., earlier this year, per Fund:
[T]he Aurora shooter, who killed twelve people earlier this year, had a choice of seven movie theaters that were showing the Batman movie he was obsessed with. All were within a 20-minute drive of his home. The Cinemark Theater the killer ultimately chose wasn’t the closest, but it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals. All of the other theaters allowed the approximately 4 percent of Colorado adults who have a concealed-handgun permit to enter with their weapons.
People who look to other explanations for mass shootings — such as the degradation of the culture, falling religiosity, or gun violence in movies and video games — also have to account for the declining crime statistics above.
It certainly goes against the grain for most of us to look at what happened in Newtown on Friday and conclude nothing can be done. And it is counter-intuitive for many people to believe more guns can lead to lower crime. But if we really are interested in eliminating as many violent deaths as humanly possible — and I know of no one arguing the contrary — we ought to let our policy debate be guided by the facts, rather than the understandable and heavy emotions we’ll all be dealing with for days to come.
(H/t for a few of these links to Ben Domenech’s excellent Transom newsletter. Normally it’s for subscribers only, but today’s edition can be seen for free here.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
482 comments Add your comment
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
8:50 am
Considering that Connecticut already had an “assault” weapons ban and the school was a “gun free” zone, you reckon the party of abortion just may get a kick out of seeing a bunch of dead kids?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:50 am
Buzzy: As one newscaster said, there is only one side to this issue and that is with the innocent victims.
———————–
Who’s taking a position against the innocent victims?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
8:52 am
People on Kyle’s blog who need anger treatment:
AmVet – 3 posts in 4 days advocating that people he disagrees with should die, one recommending the actual method of killing.
Tiberius – 0 posts advocating violence of any kind – ever.
Now, which one needs anger management treatment, AmVet?
Dumb and Dumber
December 18th, 2012
8:52 am
The Right-Wing answer to gun violence is always more guns.It never works and it never will. Kyle’s hypocrisy here is that he knows as a “fact” what the shooters were thinking.
And there is no point even talking about the Second Amendment, Kyle and the GOP choose to ignore the basic grammar of the sentence:
“A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed”
However Kyle and the NRA choose to reads it as:
“the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed”
See how easy that was?
We will have more school shootings and more funerals and nothing will be done about it.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:53 am
If anyone’s taken a position against the innocent victims, it’s the progs with their unproductive focus on their political aims of restricting Second Amendment rights. They should be focused on the cause of this and similar tragedies–those who perpetrate them and how they got that way.
td
December 18th, 2012
8:53 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout -OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
6:50 am
Why did Obozo fail to renew the “assault weapons” ban in 2009 and 2010 when Democrats ran the Congress? How many lives have been lost as a result?
That one is easy. Every move Obama made, every speech Obama made was all done for one reason. Re-election. Gun control just like immigration reform and the Bush tax cuts were all issues that could have cost him votes and could not be brought up.
CC
December 18th, 2012
8:53 am
carlosgvv:
At this point in your young life, you are hopeless. Now, run along and eat your breakfast, the school bus will be along very soon.
Don't Tread
December 18th, 2012
8:55 am
You liberals saying that the mother “deserved what she got” over on Bookman’s blog disgust me.
Forget about the fiscal cliff….this country went over the moral cliff years ago, in the name of “progressivism”.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:55 am
We will have more school shootings and more funerals and nothing will be done about it.
——————–
Mostly because progs will waste time and effort focusing on gun control.
Del
December 18th, 2012
8:55 am
The left can’t explain how stricter gun control or banning certain types of firearms and accessories will prevent the criminally insane from killing innocent people. The left wing politicians are once again grandstanding to their base who want only to punish the NRA and the millions of law abiding gun owners that many belong to the NRA. They only want to pass feel good legislation that won’t accomplish anything and avoid objectively examining our failing mental health systems, how violent movies, television and video games might influence violent behavior in the mentally ill or how to implement best practice building security particularly in our schools. This is all about politics to these mindless idiots not about protecting our citizens.
independent thinker
December 18th, 2012
8:56 am
Mountain Man at 6:31 am- Excellent post-
So what does Momma do with $240,000 a year? Buy guns and ammo; take shooting lessons with her crazy son; become a Prepper and drink at the local watering hole. And where is her dysfunctional son for the two years after high school? Getting therapy? Getting an education? or hiding at home with Momma playing video games and learning how to shoot assault weapons? and Dad- out of his son’s life -shacking up with a new girlfriend . Won’t even claim his son’s body. Ah what bliss $240,000 a year can buy you.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:58 am
So what does Momma do with $240,000 a year?
——————–
Hey, it’s Connecticut. What did you expect?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:00 am
Aesop, your 8:50 was uncalled for.
I don’t believe that anyone, right or left, is “getting a kick” out of this.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:02 am
“Fact – America has, far and away, the highest gun murder rate of any industralized Western nation.
Fact – America is the only industralized Western nation without universal healthcare.
Coindence?”
No, merely contrived.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
9:05 am
I’m not so sure, Tiberius. The folks at the Brady Center are probably getting a HUGE kick out of this. Oh, sure, they’re saying all the right things about the tragedy and how very sad it all is, but business has never been better for the ghouls looking to score political points, raise money for gun-control-freaks, and strip Americans of their Second Amendment rights.
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
9:06 am
JamVet CAUSES homicidal thoughts!
Christian fraud, to the extent that you give my words that much power over you, I chuckle…
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
9:08 am
The 1st Amendment -
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
Now, if I were to interpret this the way a lib would interpret the 2nd Amendment, then that would mean the “press” is a religion. (Yes, I know it is to some but that’s not my point.)
carlosgvv
December 18th, 2012
9:08 am
CC – 8:53
Tiberius – 9:02
Rather than trying to refute my post, which you can’t, your best response is trite, juvenille and mindless.
This is precisley what I expected from two adolescent homeschoolers like you.
Now, stop posting here and do your school work. How do you ever expect to be good MacDonald busboys someday if you keep wasting time posting here?
CC
December 18th, 2012
9:10 am
Liberals have cheapened the value of human life by advocating the murder of the unborn. Would anyone dispute the fact that most homicides are committed by products of single parent households? Our society has plenty of single parent households because of the welfare given to single mothers and their dependent children. Who commits the drive-by murders? Who attends the parties that result in shooting deaths? Who patronizes the nightclubs where shootings and homicides occur? The ultra-liberal Hollywood idiots grind out violent film after violent film and will be in the forefront advocating gun control.
There is a culture of violence that exists within this country, but conservatives didn’t create it.
As has been said here earlier, LIBERALS, THE BLOOD IS ON YOUR HANDS.
mad as hell
December 18th, 2012
9:13 am
FACTS- Idylic Newtown Ct. had a gun problem
“”"”"”"”"”"eople in the rural, hilly areas around Newtown, Conn., are used to gunfire. In one woodsy stretch, southeast of downtown, the Pequot Fish and Game Club and the Fairfield County Fish and Game Protective Association, where members can fish in ponds and hunt pheasant, lie within a mile of each other, and people who live nearby generally call them good neighbors.
8:33 PM N.R.A. Facebook Page Vanishes
8:12 PM Malloy Asks for State Ban on High-Capacity Magazines
MORE UPDATES »
Multimedia
Photographs
Newtown Grieves
Coping in Newtown
Newtown Shootings | The Victims
GRAPHIC: The Shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School
VIDEO: No Longer Anytown
Related
‘These Tragedies Must End,’ Obama Says (December 17, 2012)
Gunman Took Big Supply of Ammunition to School After Killing Mother at Home (December 17, 2012)
Rifle Used in Killings, America’s Most Popular, Highlights Regulation Debate (December 17, 2012)
Debate on Gun Control Is Revived, Amid a Trend Toward Fewer Restrictions (December 16, 2012)
Justice Dept. Shelved Ideas to Improve Gun Background Checks (December 16, 2012)
Connect with NYTMetro
Follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook for news and conversation.
But in the last couple of years, residents began noticing loud, repeated gunfire, and even explosions, coming from new places. Near a trailer park. By a boat launch. Next to well-appointed houses. At 2:20 p.m. on one Wednesday last spring, multiple shots were reported in a wooded area on Cold Spring Road near South Main Street, right across the road from an elementary school.
Yet recent efforts by the police chief and other town leaders to gain some control over the shooting and the weaponry turned into a tumultuous civic fight, with traditional hunters and discreet gun owners opposed by assault weapon enthusiasts, and a modest tolerance for bearing arms competing with the staunch views of a gun industry trade association, the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which has made Newtown its home”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”
.http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/nyregion/in-newtown-conn-a-stiff-resistance-to-gun-restrictions.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
9:14 am
OK, Tibs, then you tell me what the libs motive is to set up these gun free zones that are the preferred place for the work of mass murderers? You can’t play basketball without a hoop and a ball, same as you can’t massacre a bunch of people unless they are unarmed.
How many of these mass murder scenes had a gun that belonged to a victim at them?
You don’t know the depravity of liberals very well, do you?
Darwin
December 18th, 2012
9:20 am
“Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate” You should have applied that similar logic to the presidential election.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:25 am
“Rather than trying to refute my post, which you can’t”
I DID refute it, carlos.
Neither of your two points are related in any way, thus your position was, and remains, contrived.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:29 am
Aesop, I see the depravity of both liberals AND conservatives every day.
And while liberals certainly like to “spike the football” more than conservatives seem to do, I still do not believe that anyone is finding any joy in this tragedy (except for the mentally deranged on BOTH sides).
tiredofIT
December 18th, 2012
9:29 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout – OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:43 am
Tiberius: You liberals wanted your control over others, and you got it. Congratulations. That control got over 20 kids and teachers killed last week. Their blood is on YOUR hands.
—————-
Spot on. To all the other negative societal trends that have paralleled the un-American growth of government, add more mass killings and more-deadly schools.
+++
Last time I check it was the GOP (Bush) that increased the un-American growth of the government.
So it’s on your hands and GOD’s.
JDW
December 18th, 2012
9:31 am
Each of the facts I have posted is supported by exhaustive research from organizations such as John’s Hopkins and Harvard. Links have been provided for your convenience and in some cases education. I suggest that those impinging the facts refer to the resource studies cited and should you wish to dispute provide similar research rather than your unfounded opinions.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:34 am
tiredofIT, the “Bush did it” excuse is growing so old.
Neither party has a good record on reducing the size and scope of government.
It is liberals like you, however, that have disarmed our populace and enabled the slaughter of our innocents.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
9:42 am
Each of the “facts” JDW has posted have been cherry-picked to make a certain point, ignoring other facts which do not.
Entirely expected, given JDW’s history of cherry-picking only that which supports his limited world-view.
Electoral College
December 18th, 2012
9:47 am
The counting of EC votes and official results from yesterday has some experiencing full blown ODS and meltdowns..
Keep up the good work
Real Athens
December 18th, 2012
9:47 am
“Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate”.
Woefully apparent Kyle, that your followers pay lip service to you.
Electoral College
December 18th, 2012
9:52 am
As far as spiking the ball, many on this blog decided to do it early. That only caused more grief, frustration and whining when the election was actually held. Let’s not “cherry pick” the facts.
Real Athens
December 18th, 2012
9:54 am
“The ultra-liberal Hollywood idiots grind out violent film after violent film and will be in the forefront advocating gun control.
There is a culture of violence that exists within this country, but conservatives didn’t create it.”
Starring big time,”liberals” like Arnold Schwarzenegger, Chuck Norris, Clint Eastwood, Sylvester Stallone, Charlton Heston, James Wood, James Caan etc. etc.
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
9:58 am
There is a culture of violence that exists within this country, but conservatives didn’t create it.”
They just shell out billions of dollars to make it hugely successful.
Just one of the innumerable ways their hypocrisy stinks to high heaven.
God be praised…
JDW
December 18th, 2012
9:59 am
@Tiberius…”Each of the “facts” JDW has posted have been cherry-picked to make a certain point, ignoring other facts which do not.”
I understand you have great difficulty with facts that do not square with the view of the world in Tiberiusville…yet I notice an absence of any conflicting information from you. Just ponderous pontification and yet another attempt to bully.
curious
December 18th, 2012
10:03 am
Has the NRA commented?
breckenridge
December 18th, 2012
10:04 am
We should all support Mike Huckabee for president! He’ll get God back in the classroom and this senseless violence will end!
Or not……….
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 18th, 2012
10:09 am
Jesus carried a Glock.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
10:10 am
Poor “I’m being bullied!” JDW. Remind me again who puts your panties on for you each morning?
And once again, you’re reading comprehension skills are suffering a meltdown, JDW. I have not challenged your facts at all, but have merely pointed out their one-sided nature (as is your modus operandi), and your lack of ability to see any issue except through a big-government liberal lens.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
10:11 am
curious: Has the NRA commented?
——–
On what?
JDW
December 18th, 2012
10:17 am
Tiberius…”Poor “I’m being bullied!” JDW. Remind me again who puts your panties on for you each morning?”
I don’t recall saying “I was being bullied” merely that you ATTEMPTED to bully…yet again…and again…and again.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
10:20 am
The person who cries out “bully” is usually the one who feels “bullied”, JDW.
Again, who puts your panties on for you each morning?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
10:21 am
More Blue State failure:
————-
@iowahawkblog: Chicago, pop. 2.6 million. Houston, 2.1 million. Similar demographics. 2012 homicides: Chicago 487, Houston 215.
carlosgvv
December 18th, 2012
10:21 am
Tiberius – 9:25
I guess you don’t know what “coincidence” and “no” mean.
curious
December 18th, 2012
10:23 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout – OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
10:11 am
curious: Has the NRA commented?——–
“On what?”
Everyone else has, including you.
As the widely recognized spokesman for the gun industry and gun rights, it would seem obvious they could at least express remorse that twenty 5-7 year old children had been murdered.
Does anything matter at all to the NRA other than money (and that’s what it’s all about)?
Surely they’re smart enough to say something.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
10:27 am
I’m not sure why the NRA would comment. They’re a shooting-sports and gun rights organization, not a mental health or crime prevention organization.
Did NARAL comment?
MarkV
December 18th, 2012
10:30 am
The discussion of the traffic event in Connecticut is a sad commentary on the inability of many on this blog to present rational thoughts on a controversial subject. When the comments degenerate to such incredible insulting stupidity as iggy’s 3:48 pm post, reason has no chance in the debate.
Even Dusty, from whom one might have expected better, apparently felt the need to tote the party line (“I also see all the gun opponents are lined up to fight with tooth and nail.”), even though her heart did not seem to be in it. When even such NRA stalwart as Sen. Manchin talks about restrictions on assault weapon and high-round clips, isn’t it time to give that a serious thought?
There is always the “Second amendment crowd” – not meaning the (probably) majority of Americans who believe in the Constitutional right to have a gun at home for protection – but those whose answer to any restriction on gun ownership is to quote the 2nd. Some of them are always prepared to submit their “scholarly” views of the amendment, never mind that four of the Supreme Court justices, people much more knowledgeable than they, have dissented from the majority interpretation. Still, the law of the land is what the Supreme Court has decided, including the “reasonable restrictions” that can be placed on individual gun ownership – the part that the ”crowd” likes to ignore.
There is, of course, Kyle with his demand that “Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate” but inability to separate real facts from speculation. That the shooter in Aurora, Colo. Chose the Cinemark Theater is a fact; that the reason for the choice was that he chose it because it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals is a speculation.
No reasonable person argues that the mass killings, as well as other gun killings, can be prevented by gun ownership restrictions only, and that there are no other factors to consider. But no reasonable person also believes that more guns would mean less killing, or that better restrictions would not be a step in the right direction.
curious
December 18th, 2012
10:32 am
Any possible connection between gun rights and mental health?
Would the NRA support a mental health assessment of people wanting to buy a high capacity, civilian version of a military assault rifle?
I would suggest anyone buying something other than a shotgun or bolt action rifle, undergo the same process as required to buy a class 3 weapon.
JDW
December 18th, 2012
10:37 am
@Tiberius…”The person who cries out “bully” is usually the one who feels “bullied”, JDW. Again, who puts your panties on for you each morning?”
When confronted the bully seeks to belittle and marginalize. Many times when confronted the bully will attack anew…hummm…see a pattern?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
10:40 am
Perhaps we should test folks before allowing them to exercise their first amendment rights also?
Why didn’t these kinds of events occur prior to the enactment of gun control beginning in the 70s?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
10:46 am
“But no reasonable person also believes that more guns would mean less killing”
Only in your mind, MarkV.