Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate
I have deliberately waited to comment on the horrific mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., for a variety of reasons. Not least was the abundance of wrongly reported “facts” early on that made it difficult for someone hundreds of miles away from the story to feel confident about even the basics of the case; this story was not exactly the news media’s finest hour.
Still more important is the impropriety, in my view, of too soon devoting words at a time such as this to anything other than the victims and their families. They deserve better than to be gathered up as evidence for a policy debate within mere hours of their terrible deaths.
Eventually, though, those of us outside Newtown have to grapple with whether there is something we can do to prevent the evil and the insane among us from committing other such acts of wickedness.
As someone who is generally opposed to making our gun laws stricter, and who believes proponents of gun control have spent years making their case to the public without success, I don’t keep a lot of crime statistics at the ready. Here are some facts I’ve been able to gather that might surprise some of you:
- The steps we’ve already taken — including longer jail terms for dangerous offenders (and, yes, some nonviolent offenders) and smarter policing methods — have resulted in a steady drop in violent crime in the U.S. over the past few decades. In 2010, violent crime reached a 40-year low nationally. The U.S. rate of assault deaths per 100,000 people has fallen almost in half since the late 1970s.
- During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.
- Along with the generally lower incidence of violent crime, mass killings have also been on the decline: from 42 in the 1990s to 26 in the following decade.
- One thing has been consistent about mass shootings for more than a half-century. According to economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999 and spoke with National Review’s John Fund after the Newtown massacre: “With just one single exception, the attack on congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson in 2011, every public shooting since at least 1950 in the U.S. in which more than three people have been killed has taken place where citizens are not allowed to carry guns.”
- Schools and shopping malls are common spots. But Lott also noted this fact about the shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., earlier this year, per Fund:
[T]he Aurora shooter, who killed twelve people earlier this year, had a choice of seven movie theaters that were showing the Batman movie he was obsessed with. All were within a 20-minute drive of his home. The Cinemark Theater the killer ultimately chose wasn’t the closest, but it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals. All of the other theaters allowed the approximately 4 percent of Colorado adults who have a concealed-handgun permit to enter with their weapons.
People who look to other explanations for mass shootings — such as the degradation of the culture, falling religiosity, or gun violence in movies and video games — also have to account for the declining crime statistics above.
It certainly goes against the grain for most of us to look at what happened in Newtown on Friday and conclude nothing can be done. And it is counter-intuitive for many people to believe more guns can lead to lower crime. But if we really are interested in eliminating as many violent deaths as humanly possible — and I know of no one arguing the contrary — we ought to let our policy debate be guided by the facts, rather than the understandable and heavy emotions we’ll all be dealing with for days to come.
(H/t for a few of these links to Ben Domenech’s excellent Transom newsletter. Normally it’s for subscribers only, but today’s edition can be seen for free here.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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482 comments Add your comment
H.E. Pennypacker
December 18th, 2012
12:00 am
For those dissatisfied with Kyle’s intellectually dishonest article, here is a well researched article supported by numerous peer reviewed research.
http://www.salon.com/2012/12/18/the_answer_is_not_more_guns/
td
December 18th, 2012
12:14 am
H.E. Pennypacker
December 18th, 2012
12:00 am
Salon is your source. hahahahaha. When one liberal reviews another liberals work is not legitimate.
Old Timer
December 18th, 2012
12:17 am
Mental health is the problem, not guns. Maybe birth control. abortions, control video games and The Hollywood money mongols that support Obama with their violent films will be the answer, not guns. Our electronic age, two parents working, one parent raising a child who does not know who daddy is a pox on our sociiety. Not guns, Decent citizens need themn to protect themselves from our crazy society.
mountain man
December 18th, 2012
6:31 am
“The kid who did this killing was a white male but I have a hard time seeing him as “affluent”.”
He and his mother lived in a 4-bedroom, 3100 sq ft, “estate”. His mother was given $240,000 per year in alimony from his dad (voluntarily), so how much do you think his VP dad made. I would definitely call them affluent.
mountain man
December 18th, 2012
6:38 am
What REALLY bugs me is the lack of information being given out. They are not preparing for a trial, the perp is dead. Why can they not release the info that they know? Was there a gun safe in the mother’s house? Was it opened? Did the ammo and clips belong to the mother or did the son buy them online? Did the son have a credit card supplied by the mother? Some things I know take time to anser, but others are already known.
I think they withold info to let the interest in the case “settle”. You can already see it. The case is no longer at the top of the AJC. By the time they release the pertinent info, the case will have been forgotten by most, it will be buried on a back page, if reported at all. Things like maybe: the shooter was found to be a gamer whose mother allowed to spend 20 hours a day in shooting type mature subject, blow their head off games. Or maybe: psychologists had repeatedly recommended that the son be institutionalized, but the mother refused.
Inquiring minds want to know.
Lil' Barry Bailout -OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
6:42 am
mountain man, none of that will move the ball forward for the party that sees political opportunity in this, so don’t expect any more interest in it than there is for Fast & Furious.
Democrats: Party over country, every time.
joe
December 18th, 2012
6:43 am
Nice to see some common sense on here instead of bookmans nonsense.
joe
December 18th, 2012
6:44 am
Where were all these Senators when obama was selling guns to drug cartels in mexico that murdered thousands including a federal agent? i dont recall any outrage from them at all.
Lil' Barry Bailout -OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
6:50 am
Why did Obozo fail to renew the “assault weapons” ban in 2009 and 2010 when Democrats ran the Congress? How many lives have been lost as a result?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
7:03 am
Were the “assault weapons” used in Newtown purchased on Obozo’s watch?
Glenn Beck
December 18th, 2012
7:20 am
The “wailers and flailers” are playing a Tuesday morning gig I see.
Don’t fall of the step stool before your set is over…
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
7:22 am
You need to know nothing more than this –
Mere hours after police headed to Newtown, ghoulish ambulance-chasers at MSNBC were wondering if Democrats would accrue “political capital” from the shooting.
Says it all.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
7:27 am
ooops, there is one more thing you need to know and that’s it, I promise -
Assault weapons are already illegal in Connecticut, as are many semiautomatics.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
7:27 am
Note that the progs sole focus is on the gun, not the shooter and how he got to the point of wanting to kill. The progs only interest is in political advantage, not preventing the next nut from going on a rampage.
Progs: Party over country, every time.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
7:29 am
Konnektikut law-
Sec. 53-202c. Possession of assault weapon prohibited. Class D felony.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
7:29 am
BTW, the reason Obozo didn’t renew the “assault weapons” ban was politics, too.
tiredofIT
December 18th, 2012
7:38 am
American exceptionalism : violence
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
7:40 am
This guy should be blogging here alongside of the usual suspect Republicans.
A North Alabama football player has been told he’s no longer on the team after making racist remarks about President Obama on Twitter on Sunday night.
On Sunday night, President Obama gave a speech from Newtown, Conn., addressing the terrible tragedy that took place at Sandy Hook Elementary School on Friday. It was a speech that pre-empted NBC’s showing of Sunday Night Football, which upset quite a few people, apparently.
And one of those people was North Alabama football player Bradley Patterson. When the president began his speech, instead of just changing the channel to continue watching the game, Patterson took to his Twitter account.
“Take that n—– off the tv, we wanna watch football!” Patterson tweeted.
As you’d expect when an idiotic statement like that goes national, Patterson quickly deleted his Twitter account but only after going the “I was hacked” route. Well, Patterson’s school isn’t gullible enough to believe that. He has been asked not to return to the football team.
At a minimum he is a good foot soldier in their All White Conservative Army…
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
7:43 am
The only black US Senator, he’s a Republican.
Not a member of the all white lib mob…
JDW
December 18th, 2012
7:45 am
@Tiberius…”I just know the real Romney is head and shoulders above President Incompetent, and galactically better than you are or ever will be.”
You ponderously pompous windbag…you know nothing of either Romney nor the blogger you are bullying. You THINK, you have an OPINION, misguided as it is and you are SPOUTING as usual.
O’ and by the way…332…deal with it.
CC
December 18th, 2012
7:47 am
It is interesting to note that Chucky Schumer (of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fame) has stated that this incident was the “tipping point” and called for action on gun control. I wonder if this means he is going to surrender HIS concealed carry permit and insist that his armed guards surrender their weapons? Somehow, I doubt either action will be forthcoming. Hillary has already been burned when she and her cohorts were caught illegally funding anti-Second Amendment congressional candidates and the Million Mom March.
JDW
December 18th, 2012
7:52 am
Fact…
Where there are more guns there is more homicide
Fact…
Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide.
Fact…
Across states, more guns = more homicide
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/research/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/index.html
JDW
December 18th, 2012
8:01 am
Fact…
“Guns are used to threaten and intimidate far more often than they are used in self defense. Most self reported self defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society.”
http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/6/4/263.full
carlosgvv
December 18th, 2012
8:02 am
Only the good die young.
CC
December 18th, 2012
8:04 am
“Fact…Where there are more guns there is more homicide”
This means nothing unless population is considered . . .
“Fact…Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide.”
People with more disposable income can afford more guns? Who could have guessed?
“Fact…Across states, more guns = more homicide”
Again . . . this means nothing without population comparison.
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/research/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/index.html
. . . and you quote a source that perpetrated Obama on REAL Americans?
stands for decibels
December 18th, 2012
8:04 am
My takeaway from Kyle’s So Very Serious and Thoughtful It Took Days to Compose piece:
Mostly, what we have to do is take down the signs that say we don’t like guns, and then we won’t have the mass shootings.
Sounds smart to me. Hey Congrefs–get the legislation passed, guys, and then we can exhale.
stands for decibels
December 18th, 2012
8:11 am
economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999
ok, only because ctrl-F’ing this thread did not produce any occurrences of the words “mary rosh,” herewith the reason some of us giggle when this “Lott” fella’s name is mentioned:
http://reason.com/archives/2003/05/01/the-mystery-of-mary-rosh
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
8:13 am
Asop, stay segregated, my friend.
Evolve or die.
(Either way is good with me.)
Call It Like It Is
December 18th, 2012
8:16 am
JDW
Where there are more guns there is more homicide
Just because you state Fact before your information doesnt make it correct. Here is a fact. In Switzerland every single citizen is issued a fully automatic rifle with ammo for the defense of their country. Each male is expected to be called upon if needed. When they retire they get to keep their weapon. Fact, Switzerland has one of the lowest gun crime rates of any civilized country in the world.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
8:18 am
To all the liberals who are poutraged over my accusation that the blood of these victims is on your hands – deal with it.
It wasn’t conservatives who created weapons-free zones.
It isn’t conservatives who waste so much education money on useless administration positions and then claim they cannot afford security on campus.
It isn’t conservatives who created this distrust of government.
It isn’t conservatives who created a government unable to effectively protect the children they mandate go to government institutions.
It isn’t conservatives who made it difficult, if not impossible, for individuals to effectively defend themselves against a single armed intruder.
You liberals wanted your control over others, and you got it. Congratulations. That control got over 20 kids and teachers killed last week.
Their blood is on YOUR hands.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
8:21 am
Three days in a row for jamwet wishing death upon his political opponents and the libs still can’t understand the need for high capacity ammunition clips? Look in the mirror, morons. geez.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
8:22 am
Nice to see AmVet wishing conservatives would die again this morning.
Not sure why Kyle puts up with that.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
8:25 am
Anytime someone use a quote like this : “Most self reported self defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society.” and calls it fact, you know that person is mentally unstable.
Since “the interests of society” is a subjective criteria, it cannot be considered a “fact”.
Lying Old Cranky Troll
December 18th, 2012
8:25 am
Guilty conscious Cryberious?
clem
December 18th, 2012
8:29 am
apparently some folks get it:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/cerberus-to-sell-gunmaker-freedom-group/
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
8:30 am
Anybody else catch the dumb libs reporting on the ammunition used, usually in their stupid faux concerned and sinister voices, IT WAS DESIGNED, DESIGNED!!, TO IMPART MAXIMUM ENERGY TO THE FLESH AND STAY INSIDE OF THE VICTIM!!!! GASP!!!! SHREIK!!!! SCREECHING SOUNDS!!!!
It’s called a hollow point, bozos, and you can get some at WalMart.
They’ve been around for a century or more.
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
8:30 am
tibs, I’m kind of worried about you.
You are becoming more irrational and enraged by the week. I think this recent election has sent you off of the deep end
I just pray you are not a danger to yourself and those around you. And that you don’t have any automatic weapons in the house.
Get help… (Seriously)
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
8:35 am
Let’s take a vote, who would you rather have in your neighborhood armed with a military knock off semi automatic rifle, 30 round clip, ball ammo, flash suppressor, pistol grip and an evil bayonet lug? Tibs or jammyswet?
Lying Old Cranky Troll
December 18th, 2012
8:38 am
I was unaware that hollow points were available for ART-15’s…
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:39 am
Fact: Gun control hasn’t prevented random mass shootings from increasing.
———————–
Counting only the incidents with at least two casualties, there were 179 such crimes between 1966 and 2010. In the 1980s, there were 18. In the 1990s, there were 54. In the 2000s, there were 87.
If you count only such crimes in which five or more victims were killed, there were six in the 1980s and 19 in the 2000s.
Why the increase? It cannot be because gun-control laws have become more lax. Before the 1968 Gun Control Act, there were almost no federal gun-control laws.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323723104578185271857424036.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 18th, 2012
8:40 am
Tibs or jammyswet?
Tibs. He would probably end up shooting himself.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 18th, 2012
8:41 am
AmVet calling someone irrational after thrice wishing for conservatives to die on this blog would be laugh riot if it weren’t so disturbing.
Talk about seeking help . . .
Here’s the thing, AmVet: you and other libs have no other course but to post the way you do regarding my accusation, because you have no logical argument nor any ability to refute what I posted.
Just your guilt-ridden poutrage because you know in your hearts that YOU and YOUR policies enabled this, and other tragedies, to happen. We can blame the shooters all day long (and should), but to hold up you hands and say “don’t blame me” when the other part of the equation is the creation of innocent sheep waiting for slaughter is simply another dereliction of duty for you and your liberal friends.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 18th, 2012
8:43 am
You could get hollow point bb’s if you looked hard enough.
Hornady Match Ammunition 223 Remington 75 Grain Hollow Point Boat Tail Box of 20
http://www.midwayusa.com/product/392200/hornady-match-ammunition-223-remington-75-grain-hollow-point-boat-tail-box-of-20
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 18th, 2012
8:43 am
Tiberius: You liberals wanted your control over others, and you got it. Congratulations. That control got over 20 kids and teachers killed last week. Their blood is on YOUR hands.
—————-
Spot on. To all the other negative societal trends that have paralleled the un-American growth of government, add more mass killings and more-deadly schools.
Buzzy
December 18th, 2012
8:45 am
The NRA might have started off with a reasonable mission, but it has turned into a joke, run by and supported by a group of buffoons.
As one newscaster said, there is only one side to this issue and that is with the innocent victims.
For those on the Far Right who continue to get more extreme and further out on a limb regarding gun rights, please know that the sane people of America will enjoy so much sawing off your limb and watching your ideas fall to the ground. Just keep edging out on that limb. I can’t wait.
stands for decibels
December 18th, 2012
8:46 am
He would probably end up shooting himself.
Hey, tree of liberty, blood of wankers, like ol’ T-Jeff said…
JamVet
December 18th, 2012
8:46 am
And when you finally do get some anger treatment tibs, take your nephew asop with you.
I don’t want to read about him the papers either…(He appears one meltdown away from going James Adkisson on us.)
CC
December 18th, 2012
8:46 am
Aesop @ 8:35:
Tiberius, without question or reservation. JamVet CAUSES homicidal thoughts!
stands for decibels
December 18th, 2012
8:48 am
And to quote another great American, in light of all these very knowledgeable guys who know their bang-shootie thingies and what the ammo does:
“Did I happen to mention that I’m impressed?”
later!
carlosgvv
December 18th, 2012
8:48 am
CC
Fact – America has, far and away, the highest gun murder rate of any industralized Western nation.
Fact – America is the only industralized Western nation without universal healthcare.
Coindence?
NO
Republican politicians protecting the profits of their corporate masters at all costs, human lives included?
YES