Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate
I have deliberately waited to comment on the horrific mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., for a variety of reasons. Not least was the abundance of wrongly reported “facts” early on that made it difficult for someone hundreds of miles away from the story to feel confident about even the basics of the case; this story was not exactly the news media’s finest hour.
Still more important is the impropriety, in my view, of too soon devoting words at a time such as this to anything other than the victims and their families. They deserve better than to be gathered up as evidence for a policy debate within mere hours of their terrible deaths.
Eventually, though, those of us outside Newtown have to grapple with whether there is something we can do to prevent the evil and the insane among us from committing other such acts of wickedness.
As someone who is generally opposed to making our gun laws stricter, and who believes proponents of gun control have spent years making their case to the public without success, I don’t keep a lot of crime statistics at the ready. Here are some facts I’ve been able to gather that might surprise some of you:
- The steps we’ve already taken — including longer jail terms for dangerous offenders (and, yes, some nonviolent offenders) and smarter policing methods — have resulted in a steady drop in violent crime in the U.S. over the past few decades. In 2010, violent crime reached a 40-year low nationally. The U.S. rate of assault deaths per 100,000 people has fallen almost in half since the late 1970s.
- During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.
- Along with the generally lower incidence of violent crime, mass killings have also been on the decline: from 42 in the 1990s to 26 in the following decade.
- One thing has been consistent about mass shootings for more than a half-century. According to economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999 and spoke with National Review’s John Fund after the Newtown massacre: “With just one single exception, the attack on congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson in 2011, every public shooting since at least 1950 in the U.S. in which more than three people have been killed has taken place where citizens are not allowed to carry guns.”
- Schools and shopping malls are common spots. But Lott also noted this fact about the shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., earlier this year, per Fund:
[T]he Aurora shooter, who killed twelve people earlier this year, had a choice of seven movie theaters that were showing the Batman movie he was obsessed with. All were within a 20-minute drive of his home. The Cinemark Theater the killer ultimately chose wasn’t the closest, but it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals. All of the other theaters allowed the approximately 4 percent of Colorado adults who have a concealed-handgun permit to enter with their weapons.
People who look to other explanations for mass shootings — such as the degradation of the culture, falling religiosity, or gun violence in movies and video games — also have to account for the declining crime statistics above.
It certainly goes against the grain for most of us to look at what happened in Newtown on Friday and conclude nothing can be done. And it is counter-intuitive for many people to believe more guns can lead to lower crime. But if we really are interested in eliminating as many violent deaths as humanly possible — and I know of no one arguing the contrary — we ought to let our policy debate be guided by the facts, rather than the understandable and heavy emotions we’ll all be dealing with for days to come.
(H/t for a few of these links to Ben Domenech’s excellent Transom newsletter. Normally it’s for subscribers only, but today’s edition can be seen for free here.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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482 comments Add your comment
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
6:35 pm
How many@5:59, NO ONE is laughing at the tragedy. Conservatives are laughing at liberals for pointing the finger at the method the murderer used rather than at the murderer. What is inappropriate is liberals USING the tragedy for political purposes, to further their age-old agenda for banning guns.
There are 3 issues here. One is psychological. Liberals should be shaking in their boots. Obama is going after people who act weird.
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
6:37 pm
A large number (probably most) hunters use semi-automatic weapons. Automatic weapons have been regulated since 1934.
@@
December 17th, 2012
6:40 pm
From the mouths of babes….
One day a little girl was sitting and watching her mother do the dishes at the kitchen sink. She suddenly noticed that her mother had several strands of white hair sticking out in contrast on her brunette head.
She looked at her mother and inquisitively asked, ‘Why are some of your hairs white, Mommy?’
Her mother replied, ‘Well, every time that you do something wrong and make me cry or unhappy, one of my hairs turns white.’
The little girl thought about this revelation for a while and then said, ‘Mommy, how come ALL of grandma’s hairs are white?’
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
6:46 pm
Romney@6:09, There’s some liberals left in Kennesaw? Well, I guess they either stayed there or moved there so that their friends & family wouldn’t know they were wussies. Must be moochers depending on their gun-toting neighbors to deter crime in their neighborhoods.
Speaking of ignorance & sake, do you know the shelf-life of a bottle of it? I need it for a recipe.
BTW, how’s Ann?
@@
December 17th, 2012
6:47 pm
Another one…
The children were lined up in the cafeteria of a Catholic elementary school for lunch. At the head of the table was a large pile of apples. The nun made a note, and posted on the apple tray:
‘Take only ONE … God is watching.’
Moving further along the lunch line, at the other end of the table was a large pile of chocolate chip cookies.
A child had written a note, ‘Take all you want. God is watching the apples.’
My apologies if anyone is offended…it’s how I cope.
getalife
December 17th, 2012
6:49 pm
If they are going after the kooks, you cons should stop blogging.
CC
December 17th, 2012
6:52 pm
“In 2009, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 66.9% of all homicides in the United States were perpetrated using a firearm. There were 52,447 deliberate and 23,237 accidental non-fatal gunshot injuries in the United States during 2000. The majority of gun-related deaths in the United States are suicides,[6] with 17,352 (55.6%) of the total 31,224 firearm-related deaths in 2007 due to suicide, while 12,632 (40.5%) were homicide deaths.”
• “42% of people believed they had personally experienced a medical mistake (NPSF survey)
• 44,000 to 98,000 deaths annually from medical errors (Institute of Medicine)
• 225,000 deaths annually from medical errors including 106,000 deaths due to “nonerror adverse events of medications” (Starfield)
• 180,000 deaths annually from medication errors and adverse reactions (Holland)
• 20,000 annually to 88,000 deaths annually from nosocomial infections
• 2.9 to 3.7 percent of hospitalizations leading to adverse medication reactions
• 7,391 deaths resulted from medication errors (Institute of Medicine)
• 2.4 to 3.6 percent of hospital admissions were due to (prescription) medication events (Australian study)
Maybe we should be considering a ban on doctors and hospitals?
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
6:58 pm
CC
A couple of weeks back on C-Span there was a doctor who said medical mistakes are the number 3 killer in the U.S., behind heart disease and cancer. That’s a scary thought.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
7:04 pm
Linda
Not sure about ignorance. Figured you had it in your cabinet along with all the hypocrisy and irony that you put on everything.
Ann is doing great. Still crying because I lost, but she is a trooper and will move on, eventually
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
7:05 pm
How many opponents of stricter gun laws have had a good night sleep since Friday?:
“VIOLENCE visited on OUR CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF “your” FREEDOM?
VIOLENCE visited on “YOUR” CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF “your” FREEDOM?”
Violence visited on these and other children is the price of your INTERFERENCE in everyone’s FREEDOM.
Their blood is on YOUR hands, libs.
CC
December 17th, 2012
7:07 pm
Hillbilly:
That is also what I read.
luangtom
December 17th, 2012
7:07 pm
Cheesy Grits @ 5:37 PM – No it is no coincidence. We have a country of bleeding-hearts that want to medicate instead of incarcerate, too. Could that be part of the problem of people fearing no real consequence of doing evil things to innocents? It does not take a demolition-expert to mix fertilizer and fuel-oil together. If one is intent on doing evil, look online and see what you find. We just have people in this country that have not lived elsewhere, have not faced consequences for their actions and know they will be glorified in the media for their evil deeds. To some, they will be folk-heroes, even though to others they will be villains. This upcoming War on Guns will be as successful as our War on Drugs has been.
@@
December 17th, 2012
7:14 pm
Kyle:
Domenech’s Transom newsletter was EXACTLY what I needed to read.
THANK YOU X 3!!!!!
Shaniqua
December 17th, 2012
7:15 pm
“…it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals”
First time I’ve heard of that Kyle, interesting. The libs of course will say it was merely coincidence that he picked that particular theater. Left (pun intended) up to them we’d all be helpless sheep just waiting our turns to be murdered by the crazies…it wouldn’t do to have someone shoot back and offend the shooter’s “feeeelings”.
Dusty
December 17th, 2012
7:15 pm
Well, I see Cheesy Grits is back with another ID.
I also see all the gun opponents are lined up to fight with tooth and nail.
I see that Australia bans guns.. (OK, you kangeroo, what’s that you got in your pocket????)
I feel left out. I don’t have a single friend packing a gun but many have been in the military and know how to use them. But most of them do have some type of gun at home.
Violence is perpertrated by violent people. That is the problem. ” We should reach out to the disturbed who are usually disenfranchised by society ” said my minister Sunday. Now that is a thought that few have presented. I wonder why? Makes it a personal responsibility, doesn’t it? .
CC
December 17th, 2012
7:18 pm
Hillbilly:
“A large number (probably most) hunters use semi-automatic weapons. Automatic weapons have been regulated since 1934.”
I appreciate your comment. Unfortunately, the people who espouse much tougher gun control laws or the outright banning of all guns are woefully ignorant as it relates to weapon description (automatic/semi-automatic, etc.) and the current laws pertaining to guns. I doubt that many of them know that a federal firearms license is required to even own an automatic weapon. I can guarantee you that none of them know what is involved in obtaining a federal firearm license!
Michael H. Smith
December 17th, 2012
7:26 pm
Liberals can save their same old tired insane gun ban rhetoric. Want to talk about living in a strange demented disconnected world, when right next door in Mexico, which has gun control laws stricter than anything these left-wing bed-wetter kooks could ever hope to pass in this country and with Mexico’s horrendous amounts of gun caused deaths and violence looking them in their faces of denial truly defines brain dead.
Not all of these illegal guns are coming from the U.S. into Mexico and should U.S. sources dry-up you can bet new ones from other countries will meet the demand.
By the way Libs… Prohibition: How did that ban work for us?
Get a live brain, ban usually don’t work as to often purported and this problem is more complex and goes way beyond your myopic over-focus on a gun or guns.
In Mexico, only one gun store but no dearth of violence
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/28/AR2010122803644.html
Boomsheeka
December 17th, 2012
7:32 pm
Dusty
December 17th, 2012
7:15 pm
“I don’t have a single friend packing a gun”
…that you know of. I’ve packed heat for years and my friends don’t know. Usually not something you advertise.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
7:33 pm
Mexico, only one gun store…
———————-
I guess that doesn’t count the one Obozo set up to get “assault weapons” into that country.
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
7:39 pm
Romney@7:04, You’re not sure about ignorance? Well, that’s saying a lot! I now how it is. I used to vote Democrat before I matured & figured out that all liberals want to do is bankrupt the country in the name of compassion.
You’re not the real Romney! Ann has never cried a day in her life, not even when she thought she was dying, twice. Romney did not LOOSE the election. Obama WON the election because he bought it with our tax dollars. It was substance V stuff, & stuff won. Democrats won the presidential battle but every citizen will loose the fiscal war, along with our economy & country.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
7:43 pm
He set up a store or did the ATF use existing AZ laws and stores to purchase those guns?
You do know the facts, right?
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
7:47 pm
MHS
Speaking of Mexican gun control laws and their absurdity, what about that former Marine chained to his bed in a terrible prison, for possessing a shot gun he brought into the country during a hunting trip. Apparently he presented the shotgun to the authorities and wanted to find out if he could legally possess it. They threw him in prison. I think many of the Libs would like similar enthusiastic gun enforcement here.
Scores of people killed there daily with automatic weapons and they are worried about a shotgun and some birdshot. Don’t know if it was SEMI Automatic or not. (That seems to be the key for the anti gun crowd today)
Romney
December 17th, 2012
7:48 pm
“You’re not the real Romney!”
Kyle: Give Linda the Gold Star of the day………… Took here awhile but she figured out I wasn’t Mitt Romney. She got me
Look at the big brain on Linda
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
7:49 pm
The sad thing is that the blogger calling himself “Romney” couldn’t hold a candle to the real one.
The real one has too much principle, success and intelligence.
The blogger? Not even close.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
7:52 pm
Romney: He set up a store or did the ATF use existing AZ laws and stores to purchase those guns?
———————
No sense of humor on this ^^^ one.
It was more of a “virtual” store. Of course, no one cares too much about all the brown people those F&F guns killed. They were never going to contribute to the campaign.
CC
December 17th, 2012
7:53 pm
From the CDC for 2005, published Dec 2009.
#1 – Salmonella
#96 – Motor Vehicle Accidents
#99 – Accidental Falls
#100 – Accidental Discharge of Firearms
#101 – Accidental Drowning
#105 – Suicide by Firearm
#106 – Suicide by other means
#107 – Homicide by firearm
#108 – Homicide by other instrument
#113 – Complications of Medical Care
Michael H. Smith
December 17th, 2012
7:54 pm
It’s the same old crap of guns kill people. A gun usually has a trigger that must be pulled by another person.
Best fear the person and their mental state that is behind the trigger of that gun, more than the gun.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
7:54 pm
Tiberius
Still down with the ODS since the election.
It is ok little fella…. it is ok
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
7:55 pm
If Fast and Furious had gone according to plan, it is my opinion that Holder/Obama would have had all this sympathy and outrage to work with much sooner. It blew up in their face however.
We know almost everything about this school shooting, all the microscopic details, in only 72 hours, and yet after 2 years we don’t know many of the details of F/F and after 90 days don’t know squat about Benghazi. If the press is motivated they can get answers quickly, even at the point of providing much false info.
Caution to the wind, if the news fits their agenda. When discussing Benghazi and F/F, their excuse is they don’t want to speculate, not enough facts available, we have to wait.
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
7:56 pm
#1 – Salmonella
I’ve had that. Believe that’s the sickest I’ve ever been.
CC
December 17th, 2012
8:03 pm
LBB:
“They were never going to contribute to the campaign.”
I still believe that F&F was Holder’s plan to begin the implementation of banning gun ownership completely. Unfortunately for him, this proved a botched operation causing the deaths of hundreds, including the death of a U. S. Border Patrol Agent. Obama, Clinton and Holder are still determined to ban the ownership of all guns in the U. S.
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
8:04 pm
CC
Drownings kill more people that firearms. Yet, their is no government program to teach children to swim. This is a special problem in the minority community where access to safe swimming sites is limited and the parents of minority children often can’t swim themselves and fear the water.
I have brought this up in city/county commission meetings and people look at you like, you are just trying to stir up trouble and cause us to spend money we don’t have. Their used to be a program in the university system that you couldn’t graduate, without demonstrating an ability to swim. Program dropped, people did not like it. Every year in the summer we read of needless drownings of children.
Sorry, to get on a rant, but this is something that could easily be tackled and never is.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
8:05 pm
“Still down with the ODS since the election.”
No ODS here, sonny. I just know the real Romney is head and shoulders above President Incompetent, and galactically better than you are or ever will be.
Are you that inadequate that you have to prop yourself up on a blog by using his name?
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:07 pm
Tiberius
Cry on sonny
“Color me shocker”
“I accept your surrender”
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:08 pm
“I still believe that F&F was Holder’s plan to begin the implementation of banning gun ownership completely.”
Explain with facts and not hyperbole, rhetoric and lies exactly how this would have been implemented through Congress and the Supreme Court………….
Thought so…….
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:14 pm
CC
Just post the whack wing website where you read the “great plan” ( black helicopter conspiracy theory) to ban guns……….
thanks
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
8:14 pm
Gravy Stain is that you?
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
8:15 pm
Rafe
Not sure about now but when I was a kid, the YMCA had good programs for teaching kids to swim.
Hard to understand what the downside of it would be. Good exercise, kids learn to do something that a) they might enjoy and b) might even save their life someday and it gives them something to do and keeps them out of trouble. I can understand if there’s no place to house it but if there is, it’s a no-brainer, to me.
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
8:18 pm
RIP Daniel Inouye.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
8:19 pm
Heck, our YMCA had a program to teach kids how to safely handle and shoot a little .22 rifle, and then clean it. Try starting a program like that today, with all the pantywaists running around the countryside these days.
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
8:20 pm
“Violence visited on these and other children is the price of your INTERFERENCE in everyone’s FREEDOM.
Their blood is on YOUR hands, libs.”
Tib, I can’t possibly be the first, but I would like to add my voice to others:
You need help, man.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:21 pm
Rafe
help CC out
thought so
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 17th, 2012
8:21 pm
Nikki Haley appoints Rep. Tim Scott to Senate
The only black Congressman in the Senate, he’s a Republican.
Must be that those democrats are………racists.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:22 pm
Hillbilly
yes
RIP Daniel Inouye.
CC
December 17th, 2012
8:25 pm
Rafe:
We’re thinking along the same lines. If I hadn’t been distracted by a phone call and had read your post before submitting mine, I’d have cancelled it.
Gravy Stain would be a possibility, I think . . . but I favor another choice.
Romney
December 17th, 2012
8:29 pm
still no facts
hmmmmmmm
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
8:31 pm
Kyle could make himself a few bucks on the side if he’d just publish a program, so we could keep up with who is who here. Me, I’m too lazy to spend time thinking up another name.
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
8:33 pm
Romney@7:48, Boy, you’ve had me fooled for weeks! Here, I was thinking that you were that highly successful businessman who can not stand a line of red ink on a balance sheet, who actually knows what a balance sheet looks like & knows that it should have, ah, have a balance, who knows that spending money that we do not have for junk we do not need has never & will never stimulate the economy, who could have turned the USA around into a productive economy.
If you’re not Romney, who are you? Why do you feel the need to be an imposter? One of those liberal ego thingies?
I’ll give the Gold Star to the real Romney any day, the one with the bigger brain.
rightwing troll
December 17th, 2012
8:33 pm
It’s lying old cranks gone wild in here…
Heh… I don’t blame them for being angry, they woke up Saturday morning and looked in the mirror and realized what they’ve done to this country over the last couple decades… It’s ok Cryberious, we forgive you, and we can clean up you and your ilk’s mess, you just focus on not making any more messes… OK?
rightwing troll
December 17th, 2012
8:36 pm
You too Linda… we got it sweetcheeks… you’ve done enough…