Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate
I have deliberately waited to comment on the horrific mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., for a variety of reasons. Not least was the abundance of wrongly reported “facts” early on that made it difficult for someone hundreds of miles away from the story to feel confident about even the basics of the case; this story was not exactly the news media’s finest hour.
Still more important is the impropriety, in my view, of too soon devoting words at a time such as this to anything other than the victims and their families. They deserve better than to be gathered up as evidence for a policy debate within mere hours of their terrible deaths.
Eventually, though, those of us outside Newtown have to grapple with whether there is something we can do to prevent the evil and the insane among us from committing other such acts of wickedness.
As someone who is generally opposed to making our gun laws stricter, and who believes proponents of gun control have spent years making their case to the public without success, I don’t keep a lot of crime statistics at the ready. Here are some facts I’ve been able to gather that might surprise some of you:
- The steps we’ve already taken — including longer jail terms for dangerous offenders (and, yes, some nonviolent offenders) and smarter policing methods — have resulted in a steady drop in violent crime in the U.S. over the past few decades. In 2010, violent crime reached a 40-year low nationally. The U.S. rate of assault deaths per 100,000 people has fallen almost in half since the late 1970s.
- During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.
- Along with the generally lower incidence of violent crime, mass killings have also been on the decline: from 42 in the 1990s to 26 in the following decade.
- One thing has been consistent about mass shootings for more than a half-century. According to economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999 and spoke with National Review’s John Fund after the Newtown massacre: “With just one single exception, the attack on congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson in 2011, every public shooting since at least 1950 in the U.S. in which more than three people have been killed has taken place where citizens are not allowed to carry guns.”
- Schools and shopping malls are common spots. But Lott also noted this fact about the shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., earlier this year, per Fund:
[T]he Aurora shooter, who killed twelve people earlier this year, had a choice of seven movie theaters that were showing the Batman movie he was obsessed with. All were within a 20-minute drive of his home. The Cinemark Theater the killer ultimately chose wasn’t the closest, but it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals. All of the other theaters allowed the approximately 4 percent of Colorado adults who have a concealed-handgun permit to enter with their weapons.
People who look to other explanations for mass shootings — such as the degradation of the culture, falling religiosity, or gun violence in movies and video games — also have to account for the declining crime statistics above.
It certainly goes against the grain for most of us to look at what happened in Newtown on Friday and conclude nothing can be done. And it is counter-intuitive for many people to believe more guns can lead to lower crime. But if we really are interested in eliminating as many violent deaths as humanly possible — and I know of no one arguing the contrary — we ought to let our policy debate be guided by the facts, rather than the understandable and heavy emotions we’ll all be dealing with for days to come.
(H/t for a few of these links to Ben Domenech’s excellent Transom newsletter. Normally it’s for subscribers only, but today’s edition can be seen for free here.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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482 comments Add your comment
How many opponents of stricter gun laws have had a good night sleep since Friday?
December 17th, 2012
3:52 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout – OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
3:09 pm
If you’ve had an abortion (or encouraged one, or paid for one) you’ve destroyed more lives than any NRA member.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
How many of the 4.3 million NRA members have had an abortion
(or encouraged one, or paid for one)?
Hopeful
December 17th, 2012
3:54 pm
Who gives them the guns were are they coming from that’s the question?????
Are kids going to have to be home school for safely ?????
iggy
December 17th, 2012
3:54 pm
“Don’t you think the victims & their families deserve more than right wing talking points & continual inaction ?”
Truthfully, that is not the issue and neither is your kneeJerk reaction.
Glenn
December 17th, 2012
3:55 pm
“Yup, and EVERYBODY surrounding those kids were completely disarmed by the State. Congratulations, Just Saying. You enabled the wolf to prey on the sheep.”
You just described most all first world countries . Must say I feel really scared in Canada seeing cops with nothing but phones ; )
td
December 17th, 2012
3:57 pm
Cherokee
December 17th, 2012
3:51 pm
“there is nothing in the second amendment that says guns are for hunting”
And if you really think your Bushmaster is going to hold back government tyranny, you really are ignorant of the power and effectiveness of drones, tanks, and tactical infantry units.
Me alone and my weapons alone going to stop a tyrant with our military NO. This is not the intent of the 2nd Amendment. 100 million citizens with 300 millions guns stop a tyrant from taking over the country ABSOLUTELY.
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
3:57 pm
CC: “I see NOTHING in the Constitution granting the federal government the RIGHT or RESPONSIBILITY to specify what TYPE of arms or the CAPACITY of the arms.”
So, you educational input today is that the US Constitution is not subject to review or interpretation by the Supreme Court?
Could you get that info to Antonin Scalia, like, really soon?
Glenn
December 17th, 2012
3:58 pm
Knee jerk reaction ?!
To common sense . There are some weapons that no one should be able to purchase . Silly that I was able to come to that conclusion before a bunch of children were slaughtered .
ClydeFr0g
December 17th, 2012
3:58 pm
Cherokee;
“And if you really think your Bushmaster is going to hold back government tyranny, you really are ignorant of the power and effectiveness of drones, tanks, and tactical infantry units.
Your silly little play militia would get blown away by real USA security forces.”
Oh really? You don’t watch the news much, do you? Look up a place called Syria and see what the people are accomplishing with rifles against a military dictatorship propped up with tanks, drones, and tactical infantry units.
You really think US military personnel would unanimously support deployment against Americans on American soil? You think we would have one fighting force that would sweep away 1/3 of their fellow Americans to prop up whatever regime was ordering them to kill their brothers, fathers, and friends? I don’t. There may be some die-hard regime supporters (like in Syria) but I believe the majority would either refuse to fight or join the peoples’ militias.
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
3:58 pm
Clyde, I’m just glad you’re not emotional about this, and rely strictly on data.
“No one needs to show you the benefits of the Second Amendment, that’s your own responsibility and maybe that of the teachers of the Civics classes you should have attended sometime between 7th and 9th grade. ”
Sounds like you can’t make that argument as to why having more guns than people in the US benefits us as a society. You can only say that you love your guns and you’re not giving them up.
FYI..we tried banning alcohol, it didn’t work. Now we haven’t banned tobacco, we just tax the hell out of it. Oh, and alcohol and tobacco are social/health problems but they mainly hurt the people consuming them. I can’t go make a bunch of 6 year old’s smoke cigarettes.
You’re not very persuasive…just angry.
I don’t think it’s realistic to repeal the second amendment, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ask these questions. We should at least ban the guns with the really big clips and tax the hell out of the rest of them.
iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:00 pm
Neither guns or guns used by this little maniac/resourceful fellow the issue. He wouldve completed his mission with or without a gun. He wouldve found a way becaue there is always a way.
Who is to say he couldnt have boarded a school bus, with even more children on board and ran it over a 50 foot embankment, or boarded a school bus with containers of gasoline, doused everyone and set it ablaze.
Most of you seem to have very limited imaginations.
Hopeful
December 17th, 2012
4:01 pm
I’m sorry for their lost of the families that lost a child or a teacher ! May your life come up with a Solution to prevent this from happening again and may God be with you!!
iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:01 pm
“There are some weapons that no one should be able to purchase.”
Why? Because you say it should be so or because you hero, DaddyLongLegs says it should be so?
JamVet
December 17th, 2012
4:07 pm
iggy, what the heck is wrong with you???
You actually wrote a post that DIDN’T blame Barack Obama for everything???
Wow, sad times, indeed…
Rightwing Troll
December 17th, 2012
4:07 pm
“I see NOTHING in the Constitution granting the federal government the RIGHT or RESPONSIBILITY to specify what TYPE of arms or the CAPACITY of the arms.”
Antonin Scalia, evidently, does… that ol’ activist judge him…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
4:10 pm
“There are some weapons that no one should be able to purchase.”
The problem with libs (amongst so many) is that you just don’t know when to stop. First you see the need to ban large clips. Then you see the need to ban semi-automatic handguns, then you’ll see the need to ban knives larger than (fill in the blank). You just can’t help yourselves in meddling in anybody’s life.
it’s all about control with you libs.
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
4:10 pm
Just from reading comments on this blog and many others, I wonder if some know the difference between automatic and semi-automatic. I also know that you can shoot a pump rifle or shotgun as fast as you can shoot a semi-automatic, if you know what you’re doing.
The problem is the people. Like I said yesterday, the mental health system is a mess. In an attempt to correct previous problems, they came up with a solution that went too far. It’s damn near impossible to commit an adult against their will, until they do something, by which time it’s too late.
How many opponents of stricter gun laws have had a good night sleep since Friday?
December 17th, 2012
4:11 pm
@iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:01 pm
“There are some weapons that no one should be able to purchase.”
Why? Because you say it should be so or because you hero, DaddyLongLegs says it should be so?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
VIOLENCE visited on OUR CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF FREEDOM?
VIOLENCE visited on “YOUR” CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF FREEDOM?
iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:11 pm
JV,
Glenn
December 17th, 2012
4:12 pm
Because I hero Iggy . I hero like John Wayne . A fifty foot embankment ? Did you really type that ?
Some weapons have no purpose other than mass killing and they should not be allowed for purchase. Simple as that .
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
4:13 pm
Rightwing@2:25, See Kyle’s 2:35.
Do liberals ever take a break, maybe during the Christmas season, from being rude?
Guns were banned for passengers on commercial flights & did not stop the death of over 3000 people.
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
4:14 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012/3:50
Yup, and EVERYBODY surrounding those kids were completely disarmed by the State. Congratulations, Just Saying. You enabled the wolf to prey on the sheep.
From “George Mason doesn’t know Bushmaster”, you make a fascinating thought progression, Tib.
I truly wish you could live where that mind of yours takes you.
Regrettably, it will never be in America.
As we had to remind you Nov 6…
JamVet
December 17th, 2012
4:15 pm
Apparently cc and tibby won’t be happy until every American citizen has the lawful right to carry suitcase nukes around.
HD, word.
iggy, a big grin right back at ya!
iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:15 pm
uh Nooo. Violence is violence with different circumstances. Lets not toss our the baby with the bathwater here, because you think we should.
Yep
December 17th, 2012
4:16 pm
You can kill a human with pretty much anything, but why would you allow a civilian to own and operate military grade weaponry and ammo? If you support the sale of military weapons, I hope you remember those frightened 6-year olds whose bodies were mutilated by these sorts of weapons every time you pull the trigger.
Rob Stone
December 17th, 2012
4:18 pm
George Washington didn’t have to foresee anything. He lived through armed occupation that saw citizens forced to take enemy soldiers into their homes, saw attempts to disarm the general populace, and saw firsthand the need for a people to be able to defend themselves, in more than one war that took place on American soil during his lifetime. He led an army composed primarily of armed citizen-soldiers to win the freedoms we now have. Don’t try to put our Founding Fathers into today’s context and don’t try to imagine what they “would have done” in an effort to legitimize your position. We’ve got more than enough of that kind of revisionist history crap in our world today.
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
4:20 pm
“it’s all about control with you libs.”
As in, enjoy that rape-child, Missy. My gift to you…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
4:21 pm
“Some weapons have no purpose other than mass killing and they should not be allowed for purchase. Simple as that .”
Define “mass” killing. More than one? Make your case.
md
December 17th, 2012
4:23 pm
” The only guaranteed result of a shootout in a confused, frightened crowd is lots of innocent bystanders hit with stray bullets.”
And what is the guarantee when there is no shootout?
I vote for the stray bullets thank you very much.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
4:23 pm
What size bathtub do you prefer, Amvet?
And more importantly, why haven’t you apologized for your earlier remarks?
Or do you stand by your comment that conservatives deserve to be drowned in a bathtub?
ClydeFr0g
December 17th, 2012
4:24 pm
Mr. Snarky;
“FYI..we tried banning alcohol, it didn’t work. Now we haven’t banned tobacco, we just tax the hell out of it. Oh, and alcohol and tobacco are social/health problems but they mainly hurt the people consuming them. I can’t go make a bunch of 6 year old’s smoke cigarettes.
You’re not very persuasive…just angry.
I don’t think it’s realistic to repeal the second amendment, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ask these questions. We should at least ban the guns with the really big clips and tax the hell out of the rest of them.”
Yes, we tried banning alcohol and it didn’t work. We’ve made drugs illegal and that hasn’t worked either. Yet somehow you believe that magically making a law to “ban the guns with the really big clips and tax the hell out of the rest of them” is going to work? That’s some sound logic there Snarky!
So tell me, when you ban guns with really big clips and tax the hell out of the rest of them, you think no one will have guns with really big clips? REALLY? You can’t possibly be that stupid, can you? All you will do is prevent law-abiding citizens from possessing them…criminals will STILL have them just like they still have drugs….
No, you can’t make a bunch of 6 year olds smoke cigarettes, yet according to the CDC over 200 children die every year in the US from second-hand smoke. That’s 10 times as many kids killed in this incident that has you foaming at the mouth.
“Oh, and alcohol and tobacco are social/health problems but they mainly hurt the people consuming them”…really? According to the CDC each year in the US over 10,000 people are killed in auto accidents involving an alcohol-impaired driver. Hmmm….10,000 vs 150…which is a bigger problem, Mr. “data driven type of guy”?
You aren’t persuasive, just ignorant and reacting emotionally.
td
December 17th, 2012
4:25 pm
Yep
December 17th, 2012
4:16 pm
“You can kill a human with pretty much anything, but why would you allow a civilian to own and operate military grade weaponry and ammo?”
Military grade weapons have the capability of being fully automatic. Unless, you have a special license, those types of weapons are illegal to have in the US by ordinary citizens.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
4:25 pm
Just Saying, it wasn’t conservatives who have attempted to disarm the general populace, leaving the innocent unprotected.
It’s you libs.
Their blood is on YOUR hands.
md
December 17th, 2012
4:25 pm
” In the years following its ban, Washington did not generate a decline in gun murders. In fact, the number of killings rose by 156 percent — at a time when murders nationally increased by just 32 percent. For a while, the city vied regularly for the title of murder capital of America.
Chicago followed a similar course. In the decade after it outlawed handguns, murders jumped by 41 percent, compared with an 18 percent rise in the entire United States.”
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-03-04/news/ct-oped-0304-chapman-20100304-column_1_legal-handguns-gun-violence-ban
Another guarantee, predators prey on the weak. Unarmed opponents fit that description real well.
Cherokee
December 17th, 2012
4:26 pm
Clyde: You really think US military personnel would unanimously support deployment against Americans on American soil?
Of course I don’t think that – it’s people like you and td who are making the argument that we have to defend ourselves from the government.
iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:26 pm
I dont see how this much matters as the Mayan calendar is gonna run out any day now.
Problem solved.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
4:28 pm
“I hope you remember those frightened 6-year olds whose bodies were mutilated by these sorts of weapons every time you pull the trigger.”
I hope you remember them every time you realize you disarmed everyone around them who could have protected them, Yep.
Their blood is on YOUR hands.
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
4:31 pm
A little historical background on the 2nd Amendment/Militia discussion.
The U. S. has had a standing army since June 3, 1784. It was created by the Congress of the Confederation. My own great-great-great-great-great grandpa was killed as a member of the U S Army, November 4, 1791, at St Clair’s Defeat (St Clair was an idiot but that’s another discussion for another day). That occurred about 6 weeks before the 2nd Amendment was ratified, December 15, 1791. So the argument that we have a 2nd Amendment because there was no Army, is just inaccurate.
Fenton Hardy
December 17th, 2012
4:33 pm
Do you really think that nutjob in CO looked on the paper and saw guns were not allowed in the theatre? Or Lanza picked a school because no one would be armed? Hell, the clown in CO had body armour so he was prepped for anything.
Michael
December 17th, 2012
4:33 pm
TD is worried about tyranny! He has his guns and he is set, but no he wants 100 million other people to have guns so the can defeat the enemy. If my Grandfater was alive he would be 116 years old old he never once worried about tyranny of the US Government. Maybe Nixon was the closet we came but checks and balances did him in, not an assault rifle.
Klye I thought Pres. Obama did a good job of walking the tightrope of not being political but giving people a sense we would no longer do nothing,as doing nothing is doing something. So I disagree with you as we need more than what you offer.
Rick C
December 17th, 2012
4:35 pm
“I hope you remember them every time you realize you disarmed everyone around them who could have protected them, Yep.”
You are a piece of work man.
CC
December 17th, 2012
4:37 pm
“Apparently cc and tibby won’t be happy until every American citizen has the lawful right to carry suitcase nukes around.”
You don’t have one yet?
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
4:37 pm
Clyde, you do a great job saying why alcohol and tobacco should be illegal. You’re also just trying to change the subject.
Since we’re on it, notice that drunken driving and anti-cigarette laws have been improving things? I believe they have.
Based on that logic, reducing the availability of guns would reduce the deaths associated with guns. Thanks for making my case for me.
Stephenson Billings
December 17th, 2012
4:38 pm
So what exactly is an “assault weapon”?
According to the now expired “Clinton-era assault weapons ban,” an “assault weapon” is any semi-automatic weapon that has a detachable magazine and 2 or more of the following:Folding or telescoping stock, pistol grip, bayonet mount, flash suppressor (or threaded barrel designed to accommodate one), and grenade launcher mount.
That’s right…as long as it has 2 or more of the above, it doesn’t matter if it fires .22 long rifle. It’s considered an ASSAULT WEAPON.
Purely cosmetic criteria and ignorant legislation to make people FEEL better instead of looking at root causes of this type of behavior.
Stephenson Billings
December 17th, 2012
4:41 pm
Connecticut School Shooting Doesn’t Deter Crowd At Gun Show In Montgomery County
“A gun show in Montgomery County drew a huge crowd on Sunday, despite calls for stricter gun control after a shooting rampage at an elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut.
If gun control advocates were hoping the scale of death at Sandy Hook Elementary School would dampen enthusiasm for the purchase of guns, the line of people waiting to get in to the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center was evidence to the contrary.”
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/12/16/connecticut-school-shooting-doesnt-deter-crowd-at-gun-show-in-montgomery-county/
Stephenson Billings
December 17th, 2012
4:43 pm
Civility: NRA Leaders and Members Getting Death Threats
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2012/12/17/civility-nra-leaders-and-members-getting-death-threats-n1468555
JamVet
December 17th, 2012
4:45 pm
Rob Stone,
Hear hear!
Their blood is on YOUR hands.
As if anyone would care what a deranged, depraved pig like you thinks?
Too funny.
How many opponents of stricter gun laws have had a good night sleep since Friday?
December 17th, 2012
4:47 pm
@iggy
December 17th, 2012
4:26 pm
I dont see how this much matters as the Mayan calendar is gonna run out any day now.
Problem solved.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I hope you are ready and have lived a life that was pleasing to God.
2 Corinthians 11:13-15
For such men are false apostles, deceitful workmen, disguising themselves as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is no surprise if his servants, also, disguise themselves as servants of righteousness.
Their end will correspond to their deeds.
CC
December 17th, 2012
4:49 pm
“As if anyone would care what a deranged, depraved pig like you thinks?”
Apt statement . . . as pertains to YOU.
How many opponents of stricter gun laws have had a good night sleep since Friday?
December 17th, 2012
4:51 pm
@CC
December 17th, 2012
4:37 pm
“Apparently cc and tibby won’t be happy until every American citizen has the lawful right to carry suitcase nukes around.”
You don’t have one yet?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
VIOLENCE visited on OUR CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF FREEDOM?
VIOLENCE visited on “YOUR” CHILDREN IS THE PRICE OF FREEDOM?
Hillbilly D
December 17th, 2012
4:53 pm
If I was quoting scripture on the Mayan thing, I’d go with Mark 13:32 or Matthew 24:36.