Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate
I have deliberately waited to comment on the horrific mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., for a variety of reasons. Not least was the abundance of wrongly reported “facts” early on that made it difficult for someone hundreds of miles away from the story to feel confident about even the basics of the case; this story was not exactly the news media’s finest hour.
Still more important is the impropriety, in my view, of too soon devoting words at a time such as this to anything other than the victims and their families. They deserve better than to be gathered up as evidence for a policy debate within mere hours of their terrible deaths.
Eventually, though, those of us outside Newtown have to grapple with whether there is something we can do to prevent the evil and the insane among us from committing other such acts of wickedness.
As someone who is generally opposed to making our gun laws stricter, and who believes proponents of gun control have spent years making their case to the public without success, I don’t keep a lot of crime statistics at the ready. Here are some facts I’ve been able to gather that might surprise some of you:
- The steps we’ve already taken — including longer jail terms for dangerous offenders (and, yes, some nonviolent offenders) and smarter policing methods — have resulted in a steady drop in violent crime in the U.S. over the past few decades. In 2010, violent crime reached a 40-year low nationally. The U.S. rate of assault deaths per 100,000 people has fallen almost in half since the late 1970s.
- During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.
- Along with the generally lower incidence of violent crime, mass killings have also been on the decline: from 42 in the 1990s to 26 in the following decade.
- One thing has been consistent about mass shootings for more than a half-century. According to economist John Lott, who co-authored a study of mass shooting in 1999 and spoke with National Review’s John Fund after the Newtown massacre: “With just one single exception, the attack on congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson in 2011, every public shooting since at least 1950 in the U.S. in which more than three people have been killed has taken place where citizens are not allowed to carry guns.”
- Schools and shopping malls are common spots. But Lott also noted this fact about the shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., earlier this year, per Fund:
[T]he Aurora shooter, who killed twelve people earlier this year, had a choice of seven movie theaters that were showing the Batman movie he was obsessed with. All were within a 20-minute drive of his home. The Cinemark Theater the killer ultimately chose wasn’t the closest, but it was the only one that posted signs saying it banned concealed handguns carried by law-abiding individuals. All of the other theaters allowed the approximately 4 percent of Colorado adults who have a concealed-handgun permit to enter with their weapons.
People who look to other explanations for mass shootings — such as the degradation of the culture, falling religiosity, or gun violence in movies and video games — also have to account for the declining crime statistics above.
It certainly goes against the grain for most of us to look at what happened in Newtown on Friday and conclude nothing can be done. And it is counter-intuitive for many people to believe more guns can lead to lower crime. But if we really are interested in eliminating as many violent deaths as humanly possible — and I know of no one arguing the contrary — we ought to let our policy debate be guided by the facts, rather than the understandable and heavy emotions we’ll all be dealing with for days to come.
(H/t for a few of these links to Ben Domenech’s excellent Transom newsletter. Normally it’s for subscribers only, but today’s edition can be seen for free here.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
482 comments Add your comment
bo
December 17th, 2012
2:19 pm
‘During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.”
1. Please cite your data/source.
2. Are you suggesting that the mass murders we have witnessed recently would be just as frequent and extreme if the perpetrators were using their bare hands (or even knives or blunt objects)? You don’t think your “data” might be a little misleading? Would you be willing to press your point in Newtown or Aurora any time soon?
carlosgvv
December 17th, 2012
2:20 pm
Kyle – 12:55
If we can use taxes to build a football stadium, we should be able to use them to protect our children.
I wonder if the ACLU would try to stop this by calling it “unconstitutional”?
Linda`
December 17th, 2012
2:20 pm
….& no one is talking about banning box cutters…..over 3000 deaths…..
td
December 17th, 2012
2:21 pm
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
1:54 pm
Fact: suicidal mass killers can always find soft targets where they can kill a whole bunch of people. Spending school budgets on additional security will not change that. More arms around kids may increase the likelihood of their deaths if you get a security guy who gets depressed.
Fact: Semi-automatic weapons make it a lot easier to kill a whole bunch of people. Making them illegal would make it harder for people to get them and reduce the likelihood of their use in mass killings.
Fact: There were 31k + gun related deaths in the US in 2007.
In my opinion, this is the cost of the 2nd amendment. This is too high a price. I can’t remember any deaths related to the other amendments.
Fact: More then 2000 children are killed each and every day in this country and you progressives continue to fight for this to continue because it is a “right” protected by the Constitution.
When you progressives come and talk to me about stopping this atrocity then you can come and talk to me about ending my protected Constitutional right to keep and bear arms.
JDW
December 17th, 2012
2:22 pm
Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate…Indeed…
Fact…
On March 13, 1996 unemployed former shopkeeper and Scout leader Thomas Hamilton walked into Dunblane Primary School armed with two 9 mm pistols and two .357 Magnum revolvers. He killed sixteen children and a teacher, and wounded 15 others before committing suicide. The subsequent police investigation revealed that Hamilton had loaded the magazines for his Browning with an alternating combination of fully metal jacketed and hollow point ammunition. This event led to the banning of handguns in the UK with the Firearms (Amendment) (No. 2) Act 1997.
Fact…
In 2011 the firearms homicide rate per 100,000 people in the UK was .04
Fact…
The US has no such law and in 2008/2010 the firearms homicide rate per 100,000 people in the U was 2.98.
Fact
The US homicide rate is 75 times higher than that of the UK.
Dunwoody Granny
December 17th, 2012
2:23 pm
Kyle, I’m not persuaded by the gun-free zone argument. It seems to me that until fairly recently, when legislatures started expanding the number of places in which guns could legally be carried and courts started limiting the number of places they could be banned, most places where people generally gathered were gun-free zones. Schools. Churches. Theaters. Malls and stores. Workplaces. In fact, to FIND a place where he was likely to encounter anyone else who was armed, a gunman would pretty much have to open up at a pawnshop, gun shop or firing range.
And I also suspect the notion that the average number of people killed in mass shootings is barely above the average number killed in mass knifings is likely to be a form of lying with statistics in which we’re mostly counting attacks on family, which are the commonest type of mass killings. Can you name me a single instance in which someone with a knife entered a school and killed more than half a dozen people? But the history of school shootings is rife with such. I agree that when a person is determined to kill, they’ll find a way to do so. But I think our national indulgence of things like high-capacity magazines makes overkill too easy. If Nancy Lanza hadn’t owned any guns, she’d probably still be dead, and Adam Lanza might be, too. However, I wonder if 20 little kids and 6 school employees would be.
td
December 17th, 2012
2:24 pm
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
2:12 pm
Kyle, if George Washington had foreseen the level of carnage associated with guns in modern America he and the other founding fathers might have thought longer about including it.
Not meant to be a factual statement.
“”Firearms stand next in importance to the constitution itself. They are the American people’s liberty teeth and keystone under independence … from the hour the Pilgrims landed to the present day, events, occurences and tendencies prove that to ensure peace security and happiness, the rifle and pistol are equally indispensable … the very atmosphere of firearms anywhere restrains evil interference — they deserve a place of honor with all that’s good.”
George Washington
Kyle Wingfield
December 17th, 2012
2:24 pm
Mr. Snarky @ 2:12: Maybe so. But the fact remains, the Second is in there. The Supreme Court has held it to grant an individual’s right to keep and bear arms. So, should we amend the Constitution to repeal or limit the Second?
Class of '98
December 17th, 2012
2:25 pm
“If one is irrational enough to wantonly murder children, there would appear to be some much stronger motive than the “fame”, or more correctly infamy, involved.”
Why? You say that wantonly murdering children is irrational, and then claim that the desire for infamy is not a rational motive.
We can politely agree to disagree on this, JamVet, but it appears you are looking for a rational motive to an irrational act.
I would also like to point out that Egyptian pharoahs spent decades building pyramids for the cause of eternal “fame”. I never underestimate a human’s desire to be remembered.
Thomas Heyward Jr
December 17th, 2012
2:25 pm
At the most……….Our children shouldn’t be forced to attend Government schools. Homeschooling should be encouraged.
.
At the least………all teachers and/or administrators should be armed with these.
They can even be tuned down to deal with unruly children or maybe punishment.
If I worked at a government school, you better believe I would have one.
.
http://www.piexon.com/
Kyle Wingfield
December 17th, 2012
2:26 pm
bo @ 2:19: The source is at the link in that statement.
H.E. Pennypacker
December 17th, 2012
2:27 pm
What a cowardly column.
I would have had more respect for you if you would have firmly stated your conclusions rather than using cherry picked facts, (with plenty of correlation and little causation), and the ham handed use of the transitive theory to convey your position that some combination of more guns and/or less restrictions on those currently in place may be the answer.
How about looking at another country that after a mass shooting decided to confront these preventible tragedies with real action, Australia. Homicides are down 59% and suicides down 65%.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/08/02/did-gun-control-work-in-australia/
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 17th, 2012
2:29 pm
Spot on, Kyle, spot on.
JamVet
December 17th, 2012
2:30 pm
So, should we amend the Constitution to repeal or limit the Second?
That is a very, very tough question.
But I keep thinking of these thirteen words that no right winger ever wants to read and generally drops them completely when discussing the Second Amendment:
A well REGULATED Militia, being necessary to the security of a free state…
Does anyone here contend that we have a well REGULATED Militia in this country?
retiredds
December 17th, 2012
2:31 pm
Rafe, thanks for your impressive reply
Class of '98
December 17th, 2012
2:31 pm
H.E. Pennypacker, Japan’s suicide rate is double that of the United States, and they have some of the most strict gun control laws in the world.
Pro-control advocates may have several convincing arguments, but suicide in this country is not one of them.
Kyle Wingfield
December 17th, 2012
2:32 pm
JDW @ 2:22: Fact: The number of injuries or deaths caused by guns in the U.K. doubled in the decade following the country’s handgun ban.
Dr. Pangloss
December 17th, 2012
2:32 pm
“During the 20th century, the average number of people killed in a mass murder involving a gun was barely higher than the average number killed in a mass murder involving a knife, blunt object or one’s bare hands.”
A mass murder committed with bare hands? Who would believe that?
And Kyle quotes Fox News prostitute John Lott as an authority? Show a little class, Kyle.
Kyle Wingfield
December 17th, 2012
2:34 pm
Pennypacker @ 2:27: See my 2:32.
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
2:34 pm
td: “Fact: More then 2000 children are killed each and every day in this country and you progressives continue to fight for this to continue because it is a “right” protected by the Constitution.
When you progressives come and talk to me about stopping this atrocity then you can come and talk to me about ending my protected Constitutional right to keep and bear arms.”
Your “Pro-Life” reasoning is too precious for words…
Kyle Wingfield
December 17th, 2012
2:35 pm
“Show a little class” — signed, the guy who referred to someone else as a “Fox News prostitute.”
The lack of self-awareness among some people is truly unreal.
JDW
December 17th, 2012
2:35 pm
Fact
The Port Arthur massacre of 28 April 1996 was a killing spree in which 35 people were killed and 23 wounded, mainly at the historic Port Arthur prison colony, a popular tourist site in south-eastern Tasmania, Australia. Martin Bryant, a 28-year-old from New Town, a suburb of Hobart, eventually pleaded guilty to the crimes and was given 35 life sentences without possibility of parole. He is now imprisoned in the Wilfred Lopes Centre near Risdon Prison.
The Port Arthur massacre remains one of the deadliest shootings worldwide committed by a single person. Gun control laws in Australia, which had been relatively lenient before the massacre, were reviewed and tightened significantly after the incident.
Fact
A study by Andrew Leigh of Australian National University and Christine Neill of Wilfrid Laurier University found that the firearm homicide rate fell by 59 percent, and the firearm suicide rate fell by 65 percent, in the decade after the law was introduced, without a parallel increase in non-firearm homicides and suicides.
Fact
In 2011 the US firearm homicide rate was 20 times that of Australia
H.E. Pennypacker
December 17th, 2012
2:38 pm
Class of ‘98,
You are engaging in the same type of deception as Kyle. Japan has a highly honor based society where things like unemployment can drive males to kill themselves. This dates back centuries so to try to use this outlier as your example does not work. Would removing all guns eliminate suicides in the U.S.? Of course not, but to say it would not reduce them is not being honest.
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
2:39 pm
retireddds
Stepped all over your ideological rant with some observations that didn’t serve your argument, guilty as charged, Doc.
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
2:39 pm
Kyle,
I’m a data driven type of guy, so if someone can show me the benefits of the 2nd amendment, I’ll consider it. All I can see is the costs, and they are too high.
If rollercoasters killed 30k+ per year, we’d close them down even if there was a Constitutional provision allowing everyone to ride them. The possibility of a truly tyrannical state rising in the US may be a possibility, but it is very remote (despite what some around here think…required health insurance is not tyranny). Whereas, the continuance of thousands of gun related deaths that could be avoided is a certainty.
Class of '98
December 17th, 2012
2:40 pm
H.E. Pennypacker, so what you are saying is that societal VALUES are important above all, not gun availability.
Thanks for making my point.
JDW
December 17th, 2012
2:40 pm
Fact
Of countries that keep such statistics the US has the sixth highest accidental gun death rate in the world trailing Georgia, Argentina, Mexico, Slovakia and Kyrgyzstan.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 17th, 2012
2:41 pm
People who do not know a revolver from a semi automatic pistol need to just too uninformed and needs to keep quite.
That fact wouldn’t in any way stop the poster of this comment to open his/her mouth at will and for long periods of time on said subject.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 17th, 2012
2:43 pm
then you can come and talk to me about ending my protected Constitutional right to keep and bear arms.”
No one is looking to take away your rights to bear arms. No one is going after the 2nd amendment.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
2:46 pm
JamVet: Does anyone here contend that we have a well REGULATED Militia in this country?
———————-
“I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials.”
— George Mason, in Debates in Virginia Convention on Ratification of the Constitution
Rightwing Troll
December 17th, 2012
2:46 pm
“carlosgvv: I heard one suggestion that we do just that — financed by a tax on movies that depict shootings…”
Even more apropos would be to finance this with a tax on violent video games…
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
2:47 pm
Mr. Snarky @ 2:12: Maybe so. But the fact remains, the Second is in there. The Supreme Court has held it to grant an individual’s right to keep and bear arms. So, should we amend the Constitution to repeal or limit the Second?
Kyle, the Supreme Court has held that the 2nd Amendment is constrained by reasonable limitations. Anyone may confirm this by carrying a firearm into the Supreme Court building.
Rather than supporting the 2nd Amendment generally (like say, Hussein Obama has), why don’t you defend the civilian need to own assault weapons, designed for soldiers to rapidly kill other humans?
HDB
December 17th, 2012
2:47 pm
Kyle @ 1:54 — Agreed…..
Another part of the problem is the non-uniformity of gun laws. Each state handles guns in a different manner….waiting periods v. immediate purchase; registration vs. non-registration…conceal and carry vs no-conceal laws….reciprocity of gun licensing vs. non-permission to carry (NY, for example)…..
The myriad of gun laws make for inefficient enforcement. In the military, there’s the UCMJ (Uniform Code of Military Justice); maybe there should be a UCFW (Uniform Code for Firearms and Weapons)………
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 17th, 2012
2:50 pm
“Facts, not emotions, must guide post-Newtown debate”
That should help to keep the resident libs on this blog quiet, then.
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 17th, 2012
2:51 pm
http://www.corrections.com/news/article/32165-associated-press-story-believe-it-or-not-mass-killings-are-not-on-the-rise-they-are-on-the-decline
• “There is no pattern, there is no increase,” says criminologist James Allen Fox of Boston’s Northeastern University.
He adds that the random mass shootings that get the most media attention are the rarest.
• While mass shootings rose between the 1960s and the 1990s, they actually dropped in the 2000s. And mass killings actually reached their peak in 1929, Grant Duwe, a criminologist with the Minnesota Department of Corrections who has written a history of mass murders in America, says.
getalife
December 17th, 2012
2:51 pm
You should have done that with Libya too Kyle but I digress.
We are speculating again with all the fact unknown.
Our President nailed it. Now is the time to mourn our children.
Wait for all the facts to be known, discuss possible solution and ideas with the professionals and then act.
The new word for today is speculatebates.
Debating using speculation and not the facts.
cons used this in Libya and are dead wrong.
iggy
December 17th, 2012
2:51 pm
As Rahm once told barry…never let a good crisis go to waste. And true to form, barry will attempt to force stricter gun control laws. However, it seems many are beginning to acknowledge it wasnt the gun per se’, but more so this unstable young person.
Barry comments on the subject are moot as he probably couldnt distinguish between a love gun, a staple gun or a caulking gun.
Rightwing Troll
December 17th, 2012
2:52 pm
Oh… here comes the “box cutters” argument… man… sooo predictable…. and yes Linda, as a matter of fact, box cutters are banned on commercial aircraft…
next strawman please…
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
2:53 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout – OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
2:46 pm JamVet: Does anyone here contend that we have a well REGULATED Militia in this country?
———————-
“I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials.”
— George Mason, in Debates in Virginia Convention on Ratification of the Constitution
JamVet: Lil Barry has helpfully provided an 18th Century answer. To a 21st Century question.
In other words, his norm…
Rightwing Troll
December 17th, 2012
2:54 pm
Obama’s coming to get ur guns…. BOO!!!!
Rightwing Troll
December 17th, 2012
2:55 pm
Hey!… lets ban cars and swimming pools!!!…
Just Saying..
December 17th, 2012
2:56 pm
JDW @ 2:35-
Kyle asked for facts.
How dare you…
iggy
December 17th, 2012
2:57 pm
Cellphones cause cancer and gasoline pumps to explode. Where is obama on these issues.
getalife
December 17th, 2012
2:57 pm
The money can be diverted from the cons scared to death of aq to protecting our children at school.
JamVet
December 17th, 2012
2:59 pm
Barry, you did not answer the question. Why?
getalife
December 17th, 2012
2:59 pm
Tell us the motive cons.
You don’t know do you.
How about this kids medical records and meds.
You don’t know do you?
There are many unknown facts so how can you start a debate?
You can’t.
Just knee jerk reactions just like Libya.
Mr. Snarky
December 17th, 2012
3:00 pm
“I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials.”
What a load of BS…so just make the term militia meaningless, then you can say everyone is in one.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
3:00 pm
getalife: Debating using speculation and not the facts.
———————
Like “Benghazi was caused by a movie”.
fedup
December 17th, 2012
3:00 pm
I am a hunter and the firearms I have are bolt action with and without scope. I don’t need any heavy duty rifles and sure don’t need hollow point and armour piercing ammo to kill a game.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 17th, 2012
3:01 pm
I didn’t say everyone is in one. The folks who wrote the Constitution did.
Progs: Unable to understand the plain meaning of words.