It appears more and more likely that Washington’s new favorite drama, the fiscal cliff, will run as long as possible.
Passing new legislation before Christmas to avoid the cliff — the doomsday nickname given to the combination of across-the-board spending cuts set during last year’s debt-ceiling negotiations and the total expiration of income-tax rates that have prevailed since since 2003 — now seems unlikely. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor on Wednesday said lawmakers can expect to be in Washington during December’s final days.
The fatal conceit in this debate is that the economy will somehow be well-served, or at least survive, if it takes only a half-dose of what Democrats consider poison (spending cuts) and a half-dose of what the GOP deems deadly (tax increases).
If either party is correct, we are in for a rough 2013 at the very least. If both parties are correct, we could be heading for another recession. The irony is that we’re trying to avoid the fiscal cliff in order to prevent … a recession.
Only President Obama has proposed a pure version of his preferred course: A $1.6 trillion tax hike on upper-income earners over the next 10 years, recently reduced to $1.4 trillion, with no guarantee of net spending cuts. The House GOP’s opening salvo had much more of the “balance” Obama insists on.
Many observers have dismissed the president’s proposal as a mere negotiating stance. Perhaps they’re right. But one presumes he wouldn’t have made a proposal he wasn’t ready to accept.
That is, one presumes Obama really believes taking an extra $140 billion out of the economy each of the next 10 years — remember, he says the money is for deficit reduction, not to fund new government spending — would not be harmful to businesses, workers or the unemployed.
Members of Congress are supposed to do what they believe to be in the best interests of the country and their constituents. But if House Republicans cannot persuade Obama to agree to meaningful entitlement reforms, which along with more rapid economic growth are the only way to bring our fiscal house in order, they should consider giving Obama what he wants.
This is not a decision to be taken lightly. But Republicans might not win this policy argument in the long run if Obama can pin the blame for economic damage on GOP spending cuts, while continuing to demagogue the rich for not paying their “fair share,” without consequences.
And there would be consequences for following his plan. Today, $140 billion equals almost 1 percent of gross domestic product. When the economy is struggling to grow by an annual rate of even 2.5 percent, taking another 1 percent of GDP out of the private sector will not help matters.
But what about the 1990s? Didn’t Bill Clinton raise taxes back then, only to watch the economy boom?
Yes, but there are major differences between then and now. Clinton raised taxes as both the U.S. and world economies were stronger than now. He did it when state taxes were broadly lower than they are now. He did it when oil was closer to $20 a barrel than $90 a barrel. He did it before a record housing boom, not after its bust. He did it at the onset of the IT boom, which doesn’t figure to be replicated anytime soon. And before revenues really grew, he cut the capital-gains tax rate, rather than raising it as Obama desires.
Worse, Obama wants to get most of this $140 billion in part by raising marginal tax rates on “the rich” whether their earnings come from their labor or their investments. This has a significant impact on decision-making. For just one current example, look at the growing number of companies paying their anticipated dividends for 2013 out to shareholders now to beat a potential tax hike.
Some of these companies, Costco for example, are even borrowing money to pull off this switcheroo — committing themselves to pay back billions they only hope to earn as profits in the future. Talk about distorting economic behavior.
Obama says the people voted for these higher taxes. While I believe Obama’s proposal would be very harmful economically, congressional Republicans might find themselves with little choice but to allow his policies to prove him wrong in practice. Obama could hardly blame them for letting him entangle himself with the rope he’s demanding.
– By Kyle Wingfield
504 comments Add your comment
bluecoat
December 13th, 2012
11:23 pm
I think Linda would gag at a gnat,and swallow a camel.just saying
Just Saying..
December 13th, 2012
11:24 pm
“Some of the examples are:
membership of House committees limited to 4 terms & of Senate to 2 terms,
congressional compensation by committee separate from congress,
abolishing earmarks & pigeonholing,
budgets approved on a timely basis or congressional members disqualified,
60% vote to raise or spend money,
no special benefits for congress,
no retroactivity,
no state bailouts,
no exemptions for congress for the laws they pass,
spending limits,
term limits,
no severance clause,
state legislatures elect US senators (repeal of 17th amendment), etc.
http://www.campaignconstitution.com/
We would not be in the shape we are in now if some of these rules had been in place.”
Gee, Linda, no time to get ANY of this done, or even proposed, 2001–>2006?
Linda`
December 13th, 2012
11:30 pm
The People@10:58, You are a work of art if you are trying to defend the most secular president the US has ever had in decades.
I ain’t judging nobody. I’m just observing & my observation of Obama is that he is a heathen.
I’m very familiar with all your Bible verses.
Obama voted 3 times when he was in the Ill. Senate in favor of infanticide. That’s the most vile attribute I can think of, that the aborting mother has more rights than her living botched abortion child. I’m a hypocrite? What about you?
Obama is in favor of gay marriage. Is my Bible different from yours? Where’s that word: abomination?
If you can’t see clearly, remove the speck & then the log. Don’t use either to mask your vision.
Linda`
December 13th, 2012
11:47 pm
Just@11:24, There’s no time to get ANY of this done or even proposed? No time before what? That’s your excuse to delay it?
We need to start NOW before it gets any worse.
bluecoat
December 14th, 2012
12:03 am
You saying Obama was present to vote 3 times.You don’t put new wine in old skins(bottles)You know adultery was also an abomination.Depending on amt.you tithe of course.Reckon Obama deserves a stoning?
just sayin'
December 14th, 2012
12:04 am
What the masses still don’t understand is that the super wealthy will never pay more tax. They have “people” who handle their money, and it will be sheltered from whatever taxes are put into law. You’re living in a dream world if you even think they will be paying more taxes. Not gonna happen.
Earnestly
December 14th, 2012
12:20 am
Republicans are between a rock and a hard place. You could almost feel sorry for them if they had not caused so much damage. Even the slow minded are starting to see that they are obstructing progress. If they really thought that Obama’s plan would hurt the economy, they would have already agreed to it. There’s nothing they want more than to make Obama look bad. They won’t agree to it because they’re afraid it will work which would make them look even worse than they do now.
Morality?
December 14th, 2012
12:48 am
Obama’s biggest failure? You wouldn’t understand – can’t explain common sense to an idiot.
Morality?
December 14th, 2012
12:56 am
More than anything Obama is a PARTY LOYALIST first and the FISCAL future of the USA is way down his list. We need FISCAL conservatives in Congress and in the White House that are USA LOYALISTS – not PARTY LOYALISTS…… “W” and Obama are FISCAL liberals. It took decades of big spending underfunded or unfunded SOCIALIST social programs – mostly introduced by the Dems to get us $16,000,000,000,000 – don’t think it all happened under “W”. – and no more lies about the damage the Repubs caused………… BOTH sides caused the damage – quit lying.
Morality?
December 14th, 2012
12:59 am
Obama won the election and will n ow go down in history as the Herbert Hoover of 2013. Obama doesn’t have a plan to save America – no one does – PRAY.
Old Timer
December 14th, 2012
1:00 am
As far as America is concerned Barry is back smoking weed again. He will be the only happy one when the country goes belly up. He evidently has a plan, a plan that the citizens in the end won’t like.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 14th, 2012
7:02 am
A-Sap, by chance you weren’t educated in Fulton county? Your grammar is on par with most 5th graders in Cobb county….
The C in “county” should be capitalized, SqAyers.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 14th, 2012
7:05 am
Rob Parker, a contributor for ESPN’s “First Take” morning show, questioned Griffin’s standing as a black man, asking whether the quarterback was a “cornball brother,” and later saying that the black quarterback is “not one of us.”
Parker also speculated that the Redskins quarterback might be a Republican, but that Griffin’s braids added to the “authenticity” of being black.
Believe me, RG, you can take that as a compliment.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
7:15 am
I wasn’t a big RGIII fan, but now that he’s being attacked as an American, er Republican (same thing), I might have to reconsider.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
7:16 am
Question for the libs:
If the Bush tax cuts were “only for the rich” as Democrats have claimed for a decade, what’s the harm in allowing all of them to expire?
clem
December 14th, 2012
7:32 am
do you just make stuff up?
JDW
December 14th, 2012
7:48 am
@Linda…”A White House web site? Are you kidding me?”
Do you understand the term “official audited financial results” or are you so dumbed down you can’t think.
The White House site of OMB is the DEFINIATIVE source for official results and the place the are published regardless of president. All those places that you find that distort the numbers…this is where they start.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
December 14th, 2012
8:01 am
Considering Obama turned the White house website into a 24/7 campaign site over the past few years with annotations of how Obama did this or Obama did that on other presidential biographies, anything on that site will be suspect until 2017.
CC
December 14th, 2012
8:12 am
Tiberius:
EVERYTHING coming from the federal government is suspect until 2017!
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:15 am
Here’s some info from the almighty OMB:
https://twitter.com/twittmurray/status/279478775463424000/photo/1
It’s the spending, stupid.
JDW
December 14th, 2012
8:24 am
@Tiberus…”anything on that site will be suspect until 2017.”
Can you sink any lower into the cesspool of hate? Now you want to question the official US financial results published by the OMB? Sad, sad life you lead.
CC
December 14th, 2012
8:37 am
LBB:
“It’s the spending, stupid.”
Indeed, it is the spending! The stupid (all liberals) can’t see that the problem is the spending. The stupid thinks that the federal government has a credit card with an infinite limit on which payments won’t have to be made. The stupid think it fine that the federal government is turning more people into parasites and increasing the burden for the producers in this country, or what’s left of this country.
curious
December 14th, 2012
8:43 am
The Republican House has voted for a $1.2 Trillion cut and tax increases for everybody that automatically kicks in when we go over the cliff. Wasn’t that the price exacted on Obama and the Democrats to get an increase in the debt ceiling?
Ask me, It looks if the Republicans are about to get what they asked for.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:44 am
H.L. Mencken, writing in the 1930s, collected in “A Mencken Chrestomathy”:
Here is the perfect pattern of a professional world-saver. His whole life has been devoted to the art and science of spending other people’s money. He has saved millions of the down-trodden from starvation, pestilence, cannibalism, and worse—always at someone else’s expense, and usually at the taxpayer’s. . . .
Of such sort are the young wizards who now sweat to save the plain people from the degradations of capitalism, which is to say, from the degradations of working hard, saving their money, and paying their way. This is what the New Deal and its Planned Economy come to in practise—a series of furious and irrational raids upon the taxpayer, planned casually by professional do-gooders lolling in smoking cars, and executed by professional politicians bent only upon building up an irresistible machine.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323297104578175613804159342.html
carlosgvv
December 14th, 2012
8:45 am
JDW – 8:24 “can you sink any lower into the cesspool of hate”
Like a rock.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:48 am
Wasn’t that the price exacted on Obama and the Democrats to get an increase in the debt ceiling?
————————-
Yes.
Just the latest installment of “One-Word Answers to Obvious Questions”.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:50 am
So why is Obozo so worried about going over the fiscal cliff? He agreed to the spending cuts and tax increases, and in any case, as we all know from ten years of Democrat hectoring, the tax cuts only benefitted the rich.
curious
December 14th, 2012
8:51 am
Lil Barry,
If it’s that simple, why 10 pages of comments?
Time for all Americans (rich and poor) to pitch in and solve this problem.
JamVet
December 14th, 2012
8:53 am
cc, you dripping hatred for our government is humorous. Fortunately it was a big component of why you just got crushed (again) at the polls recently. Real Americans don’t dig traitors.
Do yourself, your blood pressure and your fellow countrymen a favor – self deport.
And take you gaggle of Uncle Sam hating geese with you…
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:55 am
I guess it’s because everyone’s so worried about the fiscal cliff–the political gamesmanship and blame-gaming, primarily.
I for one couldn’t care less about going over the fiscal cliff. I’ve got mine.
Elections Have Consequences
December 14th, 2012
8:56 am
“And take you gaggle of Uncle Sam hating geese with you…”
Speaking of hatred..
curious
December 14th, 2012
8:58 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout – OBAMAPHONE!!!
“I for one couldn’t care less about going over the fiscal cliff. I’ve got mine.”
That comment is indicative of the problem facing this Nation.
DawgDad
December 14th, 2012
8:59 am
“Even the slow minded are starting to see that they are obstructing progress.”
Nearly half the people in this country and approximately 75% of the people in the county I reside in do not consider what the Democrats are doing to be “progress”, unless you want to put a positive spin on economic suicide.
There is still a deep ideological divide in this country over progressive liberal socialism vs. conservatism. I am not willing to check my values at the door and roll over for the lies and programs emanating from Washington, regardless of which party is the source. Taxes and health care costs are ALREADY going UP on the middle class at a higher rate than we would have had without Obamacare – it has already started (consider the indirect taxes and costs passed on to the public). The false arguments from both sides over Social Security and Medicare continue unabated. Federal borrowing continues to devalue our future unabated from either side. Both parties fight the same foreign wars at roughly the same costs to America, economically and morally. Both parties at the Washington level leverage problems in America and the World for their personal and party benefit, not the public good. Does anyone not in line to gain financially or politically really believe it is beneficial to us the public to have Hillary Clinton or John Kerry as Secretary of State? John McCain as a leader in the Sentate? Why, for goodness sakes?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
8:59 am
JamVet: cc, your concern for fiscal sanity and reality-based decision making is quaint. Unfortunately it was a big component of why you just got crushed (again) at the polls recently. Moochers dig Santa Claus and will do whatever their messiah asks in order to keep the checks coming.
————-
Fixed.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
9:01 am
curious: That comment is indicative of the problem facing this Nation.
———————
Self-reliance isn’t a “problem facing this Nation”. Lack of it is.
JamVet
December 14th, 2012
9:06 am
Nope, not hatred, just a desire to get rid of the would-be traitors in this democratic republic. Like Alan West and Joe Walsh.
We real Americans, of all stripes, creeds and colors, just have to give you ignoramus and bigots (hat tip Clarence Darrow) a little nudge – you are well on your way to a Darwin-hating, self-imposed extinction.
I’ll just make more popcorn and enjoy the show…
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
9:07 am
“Real Americans” pay their bills, JamVet.
JamVet
December 14th, 2012
9:16 am
Scream your Romney/Ryan scream, BB.
It is music to my ears.
BTW, speaking of bigots, what happened to George “Macaca” Allen five weeks ago?
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 14th, 2012
9:27 am
Does Jamvet ever have anything new to say?
The dude cuts and pastes his own comments.
Must have worked long and hard on those few paragraphs, don’t want to waste, huh?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
9:32 am
JamVet, maybe you should ask Joe “Indian Accent” Biden.
Aesop's Fables and other Lib Economic Theories
December 14th, 2012
9:32 am
There is a reason that the House of Representatives and the State Capitals are ate up with Repugs, it’s where spending originates and the voters chose to have adults in charge of it.
You lost, punk democrats, get over it. Grow up. Learn to balance a checkbook like the American people want you to.
morons.
(Is that how it should go, jamvet?)
Copyright infringement, no?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
9:32 am
Or Barry “Typical White Person” Obozo.
Bigot.
Rafe Hollister preparing for an Obamanist America
December 14th, 2012
9:39 am
I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration, somehow you’re not patriotic, and we should stand up and say, “We are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration!”
Sign of a traitor, Jamvet? Hillary Clinton Apr 2003
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
9:41 am
It’s just not the same without the screechy, whiny voice, Rafe.
JamVet
December 14th, 2012
9:46 am
Biden, lost his election? And Lyin’ Ryan is going to be new Veep? The things one learns here!
asop, you also crack me up. Gawd help me, but I am beginning to love you self-destructive Republicans…
CC
December 14th, 2012
9:47 am
JamVet:
“cc, you dripping hatred for our government is humorous. Fortunately it was a big component of why you just got crushed (again) at the polls recently. Real Americans don’t dig traitors.”
I have no “hatred” for our government. I am critical of a federal government growing and expanding attempting to control every aspect of my life. I am critical of a federal government that long ago superceded the powers granted it under the Constitution. Most of all, I resent something like you inferring that I am a traitor when it is truly those of your ilk who are betraying my beloved country.
“Do yourself, your blood pressure and your fellow countrymen a favor – self deport.
And take you gaggle of Uncle Sam hating geese with you…”
I believe I’ll stay but would recommend that you take your progressive/socialist/communist thug associates and relocate. I hear Greece is nice this time of year . . .
JamVet
December 14th, 2012
10:07 am
No cc, just pack your bags and go hate America from somewhere else.
In the meantime, millions of real Americans like me, will just keep helping you “Drown Uncle Sam in a Bathtub” GOP types continue to go down the electoral toilet.
Better luck in 2024…
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 14th, 2012
10:31 am
“Real Americans” work for a living, JamVet.
CC
December 14th, 2012
10:32 am
Real traitors vote for a living.
Black Label
December 14th, 2012
10:36 am
“Romney/Ryan scream”
Too funny…..
The little tikes are out and about this morning… Hope they don’t fall off their step stool as they attempt to look others in the eye..
Barry: you should start a new band
The “flailers and wailers” with you blowing so much hot air, you would certainly be the entire horn section