Why filibuster reform could backfire big-time on Democrats
Running in the background during the fiscal cliff negotiations — if that’s what you can call the series of unrealistic proposals each side is making in the press — is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s push to curtail the filibuster.
Democrats won’t control the U.S. House for at least two more years, so the filibuster isn’t getting in the way of Reid and President Obama pursuing their legislative goals. Eliminating or limiting the scope of the filibuster would, however, allow Obama to push through his appointees more easily, and it could set a precedent for other expedited changes to Senate rules.
While both Republicans and Democrats lament the filibuster when in the majority but guard it jealously when in the minority, conservatives have traditionally been more sympathetic to the rule than liberals. That’s because the filibuster is seen as another brake on legislation, and conservatives tend to be more skeptical of a proliferation of new laws.
But Ramesh Ponnuru makes the interesting case in a Bloomberg View column that the filibuster’s true role is preventing change, regardless of ideology — and that liberals have more interest in keeping things more or less the way they are in Washington than conservatives do. Here’s the gist of his argument:
When the federal government was small, the filibuster helped to keep it that way because it protects the status quo. If American politics ever changed so much that most legislation aimed to pare back government, however, the filibuster would protect the big-government status quo. That day may seem impossibly far off, given the liberal confidence and conservative pessimism of this post-election period.
With the passage of the health-care law, however, liberalism finally finished the project of building the American welfare state. Its main job now is to protect and refine what has already been won. Matthew Yglesias, another liberal writer, said so at the time: “The crux of the matter is that progressive efforts to expand the size of the welfare state are basically done.”
If that’s right, then liberals have less to gain, and conservatives less to fear, from making it easier to pass new laws than either side now thinks.
Think, for instance, about potentially large changes to Obamacare. Most people assumed Obamacare’s status was settled by last month’s re-election of its namesake. But the refusal of many states to go along with their roles in carrying out the law, along with the emergence of previously unmentioned problems with the law’s implementation, means there’s a very high likelihood the law will have to be opened up to a serious reworking in the next few years. The same Democrats who want to change the filibuster now could, in the not-too-distant future, find themselves out of the majority in the Senate. In just four years, if a Republican wins the White House, a filibuster change could mean they find themselves totally locked out of the debate even if the GOP can’t get to 60 Senate seats. To paraphrase an old saying about big government, Senate rules expedient enough to give you everything you want are also expedient enough to take it all away.
There would be problems with that kind of approach, of course. For one, Republicans would invite a great deal of public backlash by making changes with only a narrow governing majority. Witness the 2010 electoral backlash against Democrats for the way they enacted Obamacare. Despite their sizable majorities, Democrats had to resort to procedural manipulations to overcome the objections not only of Republicans but of the more moderate senators in their own party.
Dramatic policy changes work better when the political buy-in is broader, which is one reason Obamacare remains unpopular. The filibuster in the Senate structurally helps make that more likely. It would be better on the whole to keep it in place. But, as Ponnuru points out, those who disagree might do well to be careful what they wish for.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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210 comments Add your comment
jd
December 4th, 2012
1:31 pm
Kyle — cloture is not invoked when the majority can’t get 60 votes — so, in order to move on to other business, you drop the matter being filibustered… stopping the discussion for that point in time – and, the minority wins — gaining the same outcome as if the filibuster was sustained.
Reality
December 4th, 2012
1:36 pm
Years ago I really was a republican. Today, whenever I read anything the republicans are doing (or have done over the last few years) really does make my stomach turn. I cannot understand how anyone that is a true American can think that what they have done and continue to do is good for our Country by any stretch of the imagination. Shame on them!
bookman parrot
December 4th, 2012
1:38 pm
the “reform” that Dems are interested in is inflicting the wants of the 52% over the 48% and totally run over / ignore anything the 48% would like.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
1:38 pm
To those of you alleged “negotiation specialists” on here that feel that Obama needs to take a hard line, your inability to understand negotiations is simply pathetic.
There is a time and place to be aggressive, but that time and place ended months ago. In case you missed it, we’re under a fiscal time crunch and this is Washington, D.C.; a place where movement doesn’t come easily in the best of times, and we still have a divided government. So movement, despite the libs desire to get everything they want due to a close re-election outcome (and electoral votes only count in the election – NOT the mood of the electorate) is still not going to occur.
So it’s about time for the Executive Branch LEADER to show some LEADERSHIP and make some proposal that isn’t so far from reality and get this process moving. For once in his incompetent lifetime, he needs to actually show something he was elected to do.
LEADERSHIP.
I’m not hopeful, as he doesn’t possess this trait, but he’d better start.
Logical Dude
December 4th, 2012
1:38 pm
Kyle,
I completely agree. This is the same type of item as when Bush and Cheney were making power grabs, and there was no hesitation on the Republican legislature to stop it or slow it down. And now Obama has those powers and he is using them.
Keep the filibuster strong!
JamVet
December 4th, 2012
1:40 pm
Fine, you faux conservatives can have Idaho, Arkansas and Georgia.
You’ve already lost both coasts and the upper Midwest. Likely forever.
And at least this way we are limiting the damage you nuts can inflict on the nation.
The writing is on the Electoral College wall, boys.
And you are screwed. And the real kicker? You have nobody to blame but yourselves. (Hysterical, huh?)
Darwin was of course, correct – evolve or die.
BenDaho
December 4th, 2012
1:42 pm
After the abuse of filibuster by the Republicans, the reform would be good for the country. Isn’t that what Kyle should be concerned about, rather than what it would mean for Democrats IF they became minority in the senate?
I love the subtleties of the proggies trying to power grab all they can while they have power. Proggies love them some good dictators don’t they. Why do they call them proggies as we watch Europe decline with their stale old form of government, the government proggies long for?
Progressive Humanist
December 4th, 2012
1:55 pm
Kyle @ 12:26:
There’s never been a demographic shift like the one we’re seeing now, where whites will be a plurality, as opposed to a majority. In order for Republicans to reemerge as a national political force they will have to garner a much larger percentage of Black, Hispanic, single female, and young voters, all of which are growing disproportionately in comparison to the Republican base (older white males). And Republicans have little chance of substantially increasing support amongst any of those groups. Your numbers are dwindling and ours are growing.
Whites only made up 59% of the electorate in Georgia this year, the first time their numbers have ever dipped under 60%, and their percentage has been dropping 3-4 points every four year election cycle. Georgia will be a swing state by 2020, if not by 2016, when whites will comprise a slim majority in the state. And if Republicans can’t count on Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, they have no chance of winning a national election. None. Democrats now start off any presidential election with a base of 263 electoral votes from blue states, not including Virginia, Ohio, Florida, or Colorado which have all gone blue for two straight cycles.
You can keep fooling yourself if you think the pendulum will just randomly swing back in the other direction, and you can keep being surprised each election when reality does not align with your “gut feelings”.
JDW
December 4th, 2012
1:56 pm
@Tiberus…”Clotures can be used to stop bills in their tracks early, or stop them later on when they have morphed into something unwieldy. There was a flurry of useless bills coming out of the Pelosi-led House beginning in 2007 and 2008 which needed to be slowed down or stopped completely. So once again JDW takes the simplistic route instead of the analytical route to try to make a misbegotten point.”
We aren’t talking about a single data point in 2007-2008, they upped the number in 2009-2010 and shot it through the roof in 2011-2012. They are obstructing pure and simple. Just take the case of appointment confirmations…42.8% of Obama’s appointments have been confirmed…previous low water mark…79.3% for Bush 1.
It’s BS and its time to change.
Mr. Holmes
December 4th, 2012
1:56 pm
Simple, yes/no question, Kyle: Do you agree the GOP’s record-shattering use of the filibuster during the Obama administration has been abusive of the rule?
carlosgvv
December 4th, 2012
1:58 pm
For some reason, Republicans are acting as though the election didn’t happen and it’s early 2011 business as usual. This denial will not end well for them.
JF McNamara
December 4th, 2012
1:59 pm
New legislators are elected to make change. If People didn’t want change, they would have voted for the same people and kept the status quo. If Republicans win, they deserve to modify the government as they see fit so long as they feel it is the will of the American people. Same for Democrats.
The minority party shouldn’t have a lot of say in the governance. The White House and the House of Representatives are our checks and balances. Not bitter losers.
JDW
December 4th, 2012
1:59 pm
Tiberius…”There is a time and place to be aggressive, but that time and place ended months ago. In case you missed it, we’re under a fiscal time crunch and this is Washington, D.C.; a place where movement doesn’t come easily in the best of times, and we still have a divided government. ”
O’Dear silly me I would have thought the time is right after you SPANK the opposition in elections and while the electorate blames the Republicans for the stalemate by a 25 point margin…
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/04/poll-gop-to-get-more-blame-than-obama-if-fiscal-cliff-talks-fail/?hpt=hp_t1
Sounds like a position of strength to me, but of course I sure things are different in Tiberiusville.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:01 pm
AmVet, there is a difference between evolving into something better, and mutating into something destructive.
Liberals are like cancer cells in that regard.
Kyle Wingfield
December 4th, 2012
2:03 pm
Progressive @ 1:55: No, we’ve never seen whites as a plurality rather than a majority. But it’s also inapt to discuss the history of the electorate in terms of “whites” — for many decades, that was the only category of voters, and the demographic trends we would have discussed would have been within that group. The point being, the makeup of the electorate changes, and the two-party system has prevailed, with both parties moving into and out of the majority.
And I don’t know that anyone on the right is thinking, or even hoping, “the pendulum will just randomly swing back in the other direction.” Everyone I know and read recognizes that it will take work to reach out to groups of voters who traditionally haven’t voted for Republicans. I’ve written a couple of pieces about that since the election.
That said, had Romney managed to win as large a percentage of the Hispanic vote as Bush did in 2004, we would probably be calling him the president-elect — and liberals would be soul-searching instead of gloating.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:03 pm
“For some reason, Republicans are acting as though the election didn’t happen and it’s early 2011 business as usual.”
For some reason carlos doesn’t realize that NOTHING changed in the makeup of the Legislative and Executive branches in 2012 moving into 2013.
Mr. Holmes
December 4th, 2012
2:05 pm
I don’t see a way out of the political mess the GOP is in right now, regarding taxes. They could literally offer Obama 99% of what he wants, he says no, we go over the cliff, and he can *still* hang them out to dry in the court of public opinion. Seriously, what are they going to say? “Well, we made him a fair offer, but because he didn’t take it, we’re not going to vote for this middle-class tax cut.”
The American people are starting to recognize the truth of trends like the one Bookman illustrated with his latest post, and hear me, Kyle: They WANT the tax RATES in the top bracket to go up. No amount of horse-trading or obfuscation is going to change that, and the longer the GOP resists it, the worse they are going to look.
Now, if the rates on just the top 2% go up and the economy tanks, then we can have this conversation again. But methinks the reason the GOP is fighting this so hard is because they know raising that top rate will not have any significant impact, since those earners are not spending that money anyway! And if the deficit starts coming down while the economy continues its steady improvement, that will lead to even greater consumer confidence, and so on.
That’s what everyone on the Right is terrified of. Probably including Kyle.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:06 pm
“O’Dear silly me I would have thought the time is right after you SPANK the opposition in elections and while the electorate blames the Republicans for the stalemate by a 25 point margin…”
In case you missed it, JDW (and as usual, you did), the spanking is in the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote, and while the former looks like a spanking, the latter is the actual mood of the electorate.
Reality, JDW.
Try it sometime.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:10 pm
When the federal government was small,…
Ok, I give up, when was this? 1810?
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 4th, 2012
2:11 pm
Enter your comments hereof President Reagan’s 525 electoral college votes–now THAT was a spanking.
Obozo just squeaked by in comparison.
JDW
December 4th, 2012
2:12 pm
@Tiberius…”the latter is the actual mood of the electorate”
O’ you mean the same electorate that blames the Republicans for the stalemate by a 53% to 27% margin…that electorate?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:14 pm
John Q, a sock puppet is an online name used for deceptive purposes. Get that through your thick head.
The House is still firmly in Republican hands, and the Senate is still firmly in Democrat hands and the filibuster has not yet changed. Get that through your thick head.
The way Washington works hasn’t changed. Get that through your thick head.
Glenn Bexk
December 4th, 2012
2:14 pm
Neither party has a monopoly on Senate rule changes. This goes beyond just the filibuster and the majority of time it is done for political expediency of the party in the majority.
Those who back the party in power usually are ok with it and those who don’t, do not like it.
This is nothing new whether the filibuster rule is changed or not. Both parties usually get bit by their own changes, but both have hedged their bets and changed them.
To demonize one side over another is partisan nothings by those backing the minority at the time a change occurs.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:15 pm
JDW, a poll is not a vote.
Reality. Try it sometime.
Glenn
December 4th, 2012
2:17 pm
Now Kyle you know the states will fall in line on Obamacare . They need the federal coin , especially the red states . As far as the filibuster , is there a bigger tool perceived to cause gridlock than the filibuster. I can’t believe you tried to make a conservative argument using the term ” broad appeal ” . There is nothing broad about the Republicans right now . The Republicans have a fringe voice and until some moderation comes from your party they will become irrelevant going forward . Oh unless there is secession .
HRPufnstuf
December 4th, 2012
2:18 pm
The filibuster is not the problem, it is the way the Republicans abused it so in the last two years. Bring back the REAL filibuster, where you have to show up and speak. That will force either party to vehemently oppose a bill when they really mean it. Otherwise, they can do it on a whim, like they (Republicans)are doing now.
Kyle Wingfield
December 4th, 2012
2:18 pm
Mr. Holmes @ 1:56: What I believe is that members of the Senate ought to do what they believe is best for the country. If there is more disagreeable legislation being proposed than in previous years, we should expect to see the minority party try harder to block it. As long as those members are acting within the rules, it’s up to the majority party to a) persuade them to change their minds or b) to persuade the voters to change their senators.
So, no, I don’t think the sheer number of filibusters tells us the rule has been abused.
Glenn Beck
December 4th, 2012
2:20 pm
JDW
Yes try reality sometimes. Like Rasmussen and Gallup as well as the right wing pundits who were not into reality last month and said Romney was going to win. We won’t bother to mention those on this blog who were not trying on reality with their “President Romney” projections.
Just saying…. JDW
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:21 pm
Democrats who want to change the filibuster now could, in the not-too-distant future, find themselves out of the majority in the Senate
Demographics are agin’ it. You can’t gerrymander Senate seats. Let’s take our chances.
JDW
December 4th, 2012
2:25 pm
@Tiberius…”a poll is not a vote.”
Nope but guess what…we had one of those too…won it.
Linda
December 4th, 2012
2:26 pm
The negotiations are no longer about increasing taxes, increasing revenues, more non-stimulus spending, paying people not to work, kicking the sequester down the road, fixing Medicare doctors, refinancing personal mortgages, preventing the death of entitlements & giving Obama the authority to increase the debt limit when it’s not raining. I think it’s about that partridge in the pear tree he added to his wish list.
Mr. Holmes
December 4th, 2012
2:26 pm
That’s quite the carefully parsed answer. By that logic, and since opposing parties typically believe the other party’s ideas are bad for the country, you’re saying it’s fair for the minority to bring just about all Senate business to a crashing halt, on the grounds that it’s “what’s best for the country.”
I do not believe that is nor has ever been the intention of the filibuster. Elections have consequences. While some power must be retained by the minority, they also should allow the majority party to reasonably enact the agenda upon which it was elected.
Georgia is a red state. I do not believe the Democratic minority should bring all state legislative and a healthy chunk of executive administration and judicial activity to a grinding halt just because I’m a big freakin crybaby. Yet that has been exactly the attitude of our GOP senators since Jan. 21, 2009.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:26 pm
it’s up to the majority party to a) persuade them to change their minds
This is Kyle’s fantasy land. When the minority party is composed of legislators who put their Norquist pledges above their pledge of office, how is the majority going to convince them?
When you have a party composed of legislators known for their willingness to fall in line and tow the party line like the sheep they are, how is the majority party going to change their mind?
WE DONT CARE ABOUT CHANGING YOUR MINDS, GET IT? WE HAVE A MAJORITY SO SIT BACK AND SHUT IT.
Glenn Beck
December 4th, 2012
2:27 pm
Kyle
Was McConnel just talking bs when he threatened filibuster rule changes several years ago. After all, he was crying about filibusters that were not even as many as his party is doing now.
That is fact.
Were you good with it then and would you be good with it had Republican’s changed the rule at that time?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:27 pm
Sorry, but we are not going to cave to your Con fears on this one…..
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:35 pm
“Demographics are agin’ it. You can’t gerrymander Senate seats. Let’s take our chances.”
I’m reminded of the over-confidence of liberals following their legislative excesses during the 2009-2010 Pelosi and Reid orgy.
“Taking chances” with an electorate who doesn’t like radical change doesn’t usually end up so good.
Glenn Beck
December 4th, 2012
2:37 pm
Kyle
If memory serves me correctly the esteemed Senator from Kentucky said something along the lines of the filibuster being an outdated Senate rule or had served its useful purpose.
Do you recall anything along those lines?
If rules are changed so be it. Democrats will eventually get bit, however they are well within their right to do so.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:37 pm
“Nope but guess what…we had one of those too…won it.”
And barely so. Your side would be wise to remember the actual vote, and not the Electoral one.
The former is far more representative of the mood of the country than the latter.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:39 pm
“When you have a party composed of legislators known for their willingness to fall in line and tow the party line like the sheep they are, how is the majority party going to change their mind?”
No different when describing the Democrats, Finn.
“WE DONT CARE ABOUT CHANGING YOUR MINDS, GET IT? WE HAVE A MAJORITY SO SIT BACK AND SHUT IT.”
You have a majority in the SENATE, Finn. Reality says you still have to negotiate with the House, so I suggest some moderation is in order.
JDW
December 4th, 2012
2:40 pm
@Tiberius…your spin not withstanding 332 to 206 is a SPANKING. Tax rates were a part of the discussion that led to the spanking and now it is time for them to change.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 4th, 2012
2:41 pm
It’s too bad Obozo’s success at getting elected, swaying opinion polls, and co-opting the media haven’t translated to, you know, actual accomplishments.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:42 pm
You have a majority in the SENATE, Finn.
Yeah, Tiberius, this blog post is about the SENATE. But, sorry, I didn’t think I had to spell it out for you….
mwuahahahahahaha
Mr. Holmes
December 4th, 2012
2:42 pm
Your side would be wise to remember the actual vote, and not the Electoral one.
Umm, Obama won by nearly 4 full percentage points and 3.5 million votes. That’s not an inconsequential margin, particularly since the GOP candidate has won a simple majority just ONCE in the last six elections.
Glenn Beck
December 4th, 2012
2:43 pm
Speaking of over confidence, did anyone listen to the right win pundits or read comments on this very blog right up through early evening on election day?
That would be right up until jolly turned to folly
Wa wa wa
As for being close, Bush was no less the President when he lost the popular vote in 2000 and many on the left cried. Nor when he won in 2004 with less EC and popular margin than Obama won by last month.
So spin and spin, it is no less a victory no matter how you slice the numbers and opine.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
December 4th, 2012
2:44 pm
Obamacare is a product of the Heritage foundation and an accepted approach to healthcare by those on the right….until Democrats start agreeing with it. EVEN ONE OF THEIR OWN made it into law in MA.
Lil' Barry Bailout - OBAMAPHONE!!!
December 4th, 2012
2:45 pm
Rs proposed $4 in spending in return for $1 in cuts, in the face of trillion-dollar deficits and $16 trillion in debt?
Wrong, JohnQ, it’s your messiah who proposed that, no one else.
And we Americans oppose it because its stupid.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:49 pm
Mr. Holmes, as Kyle pointed out in an earlier column, just 400k total votes in only 4 states would have reversed the electoral win by Obama.
It is an inconsequential margin no matter how many ways you look at it.
Once again, the tendency on the left to come up with a landslide, when it was only on the Electoral College side of things, is not an indication of a gigantic mood swing in the actal mood of the country at large. You got your win, but in reality, it wasn’t as big as you wanted it, nor was it as big as you needed it to be to be called a mandate. The House is STILL in GOP hands, and comfortably so. The Senate is STILL in Democrat hands, but not to the point it was where the filibuster wasn’t needed in 2010.
No matter which way you slice it, we still have divided government, and not every different than what it was before November, as the number of seats which changed were minimal.
I suggest the celebratory mood of liberals needs to end and the reality of governing in this continuing divided environment begins.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:51 pm
“Yeah, Tiberius, this blog post is about the SENATE. But, sorry, I didn’t think I had to spell it out for you….”
And if the Senate was the only legislative body you had to worry about, Finn, your “We won” mantra might carry some weight.
Sadly, it does not.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
December 4th, 2012
2:53 pm
Nice to see John Q throwing out the race card.
Simpleton.
Glenn Beck
December 4th, 2012
2:55 pm
If a frog had wings
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts….
It doesn’t matter, McCain and now Romney were both beat down.
It is over. Romney does not get a redo
This isn’t horse shoes and hand grenades were close renders results.
One vote, one million votes…. Opine, whine and decline to accept reality, but it will not change anything.
Might give you a little esteem boost and hope for next time, however it means nothing as of right now.