Poll Position: How to avoid the fiscal cliff?
The election is over, but there is real work to be done in Washington before President Obama even begins his second term. On Jan. 1, about seven and a half weeks from now, we take a flying leap over the fiscal cliff unless Obama and Congress can strike a deal to avoid it. Oh, and the debt ceiling will probably have to be raised again before the end of 2012, too.
How should Obama and Congress steer us away from the fiscal cliff? (Please vote for one tax option and one spending option)
- Raise tax rates (53 Votes)
- Cut spending across the board, cap future increases (48 Votes)
- Reform entitlements to slow spending growth (46 Votes)
- Close tax loopholes (45 Votes)
- Focus on defense, other discretionary spending (39 Votes)
- Do nothing; bring on the fiscal cliff! (19 Votes)
- Be revenue-neutral, spark growth to raise revenue (18 Votes)
- Create a VAT or other new tax (4 Votes)
Total Voters: 163
Loading ...This time, Obama is inheriting a mess from himself. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that going over the fiscal cliff would plunge us back into recession and push the unemployment rate back above 9 percent. So it’s a pretty darn important issue.
If Bob Woodward’s recent book portrayed him accurately, as a man who misreads his negotiating partners and overestimates his ability to best them, he’ll need every bit of those seven and a half weeks to reach an accommodation with the still-Democratic-held Senate and the still-GOP-led House.
(Obama’s first order of business? He’s leaving next week for a trip to visit three crucial allies of ours: Thailand, Burma and Cambodia.)
By all accounts, Obama and Congress will be taking another shot at the kind of “grand bargain” they nearly reached in the summer of 2011 before Obama reportedly tried to squeeze more revenue out of the deal and Speaker John Boehner balked. In practical political terms, this means Obama and Boehner have to cut a deal: The Senate has been an inoperable mess the past two years, there appears to be no bridge between Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and in his post-re-election afterglow Obama can afford to twist the arms of Senate Democrats even without Reid’s cooperation (and maybe some House Democrats without Nancy Pelosi’s help) if that’s what it takes.
In practical policy terms, we can expect some combination of more revenue and less spending. Any more detail beyond that is where it gets cloudy.
More revenue can take a lot of forms: Higher tax rates, fewer tax loopholes, some combination of the two, something totally new (such as a federal consumption tax, like the VATs in Europe). In reality, the revenue situation is not going to improve until the economy gets back to its pre-recession self.
Likewise, spending cuts mean different things to different people. In Washington, a spending “cut” usually really means slower increases in spending than would have happened otherwise. That has worked in the past, but time is no longer on our side. The only way merely slower growth in spending would work is if it takes place in a serious way in the main drivers of budget deficits: Social Security, Medicare and, to some degree, Medicaid.
So, what’s the best way to go about each problem? That’s this week’s Poll Position question. See the choices in the nearby poll and vote — you’ll be able to select two, preferably one on the tax side and one on the spending side — and then explain your position in the comments thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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303 comments Add your comment
carlosgvv
November 9th, 2012
3:25 pm
Barry – 3:05
I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see this happen. Politicians all lie a lot to get elected.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
3:25 pm
One in five are on Medicaid. Think that might have something to do with the deficit?
It’s the spending, stupid.
Thanks to Democrats, what was a safety net is now a hammock.
Welcome to Obozo’s “Loser America”.
Kyle Wingfield
November 9th, 2012
3:31 pm
Tim Carney has more on the themes I hit @ 3:19 here. Great piece, well worth a read.
curious
November 9th, 2012
3:34 pm
I’m for closing tax loopholes, especially since most of us here don’t have the ability to use them.
Loopholes may be legal, but most are the result of special interest group lobbyists.
mike
November 9th, 2012
3:36 pm
I say let ALL of the Bush tax cuts expire. Then, reduce military spending to pre-George W. Bush levels, repeal Medicare Part D. If that doesn’t fix the deficit, I don’t know what will. As I’ve said before, if every household in America got a supplemental tax bill to cover the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, they would have over years ago.
curious
November 9th, 2012
3:37 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout – Vote American
November 9th, 2012
3:25 pm
“One in five are on Medicaid. Think that might have something to do with the deficit?
It’s the spending, stupid.”
If it’s spending, then let sequestration take place.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
3:38 pm
Ok by me. I like mike’s ideas above as well
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
3:39 pm
Good article, Kyle.
Until the end, when the author does a Ron Paul and dookies in his journalist bed.
Even so, the message up to that point was pretty rational and reasonable.
And that is exactly why I am guessing that it will be dismissed out of hand by both the GOP’s intransigent power brokers and those in the party’s self-destructive “base”…
mike
November 9th, 2012
3:40 pm
Just keep your hands off my mortgage interest deduction! or I’ll shoot!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
3:42 pm
Mortgage? Mortgages are for chumps.
All-American Angry Old White Male (The vanishing breed)
November 9th, 2012
3:43 pm
Obama has demonstrated no intention of fiscal responsibility during his first term in office, and I doubt seriously that he will in this term. One needs to understand the mentoring of Obama from an early age, and what philosophy he adopted. It is entirely fair to say that both Lenin and Marx influenced his thinking, and one would be foolish to disregard their beliefs concerning the collapsing of an economy as a tool in the establishment of socialism/communism. To ignore this is nothing short of folly.
To understand the initial moves in a game of chess, one must know the player’s end game.
On 7/2012, Forbes carried an article about Obama and the facts/myths about his being a socialist. It’s pretty good reading if you have a few moments:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhendrickson/2012/07/26/president-obamas-marxist-leninist-economics-fact-and-fiction/
Kyle Wingfield
November 9th, 2012
3:44 pm
JamVet: Which part? Do you dispute that the game is rigged, or that the Democrats are the ones running the game?
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
3:45 pm
“Just listen to the piggies squeal!”
You would know the sound. You have not stopped squealing since Tuesday night
just saying
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
3:54 pm
“all of the damage from Bush’s policies occurred during the period from Jan 01 until the new congress in 06.”
Yeah, ’cause we can’t put any blame of the people who didn’t lift a finger to fix all the ills that allegedly started before, can we, John Q?
The sad fact is he really believes the crap.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
3:57 pm
yuz, nice dodge on the whole Social Security thingy, btw.
You avoided admitting that we ARE using the trust fund to pay for things today.
You avoided admitting that there is no plan to pay off those notes.
In short, you avoided the stark reality that we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. The good news is, you’re now qualified to serve in Congress because you can’t face fiscal reality.
Congratulations!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
4:01 pm
It’s clear to pretty much everyone that Republicans need to something about their “Latino problem” — everyone, that is, except for perhaps most Republicans.
hehehe. An excellent read on the dividing issue of immigration reform inside the Republican party:
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/09/conservatives_revolt_over_immigration_shift/
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:01 pm
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/09/petraeus-resigns-as-cia-director/
Interesting that he was scheduled to testify next week and he did make some conflicting statements after Bengahzi about the events.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
4:03 pm
Not at all, John Q.
You claim all of the damage was done pre-Pelosi / Reid, yet you do not take them to task for never lifting a finger to fix anything.
In fact, the very people put in charge of fixing the housing issue poo-pooed the idea (remember Barney Frank?).
In short, you have ZERO clue what caused the problem, and you and your party refuse to take any responsibility for not fixing it.
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
4:03 pm
Neither of those Kyle.
Notwithstanding (in the opinion of this American who has had his own successful business for nearly ten years) this partisan hyperbole: Every small businessman, ambitious immigrant, and would-be-entrepreneur should be a Republican.
And a rereading of the last sentence – with the author’s condemnation of GE and Pfizer – forces me to acknowledge that I was wrong in my earlier assessment.
To his point, BIG business has co-opted we the people’s sacred role of the sovereigns in this land. I love American corporations. (Gasp!!) I loved them even more when they were our servants and not our masters…
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
4:04 pm
Let all the tax cuts expire and THEN give the middle class a tax cut. Republicans wouldn’t dare deny the cut for political reasons.
Next.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
4:06 pm
As the guy filing in for Hannity said about Petraeus today:
“How can this be? He’s the CIA director. You mean he couldn’t find a way to keep this a secret?”
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:07 pm
“Interesting that he was scheduled to testify next week and he did make some conflicting statements after Bengahzi about the events.”
He won’t be the last, Del. Protection of Obama is imperative!
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
4:11 pm
Well, speaking of fallen heroes aside from fallen hopes, let us consider Gen. Petraeus. Today he resigned as director of CIA. Marriage infidelity.
Don’t people ever learn?. Doing the wrong thing seldom stays under cover. If you want to be considered honorable, then be honorable.
I liked Gen. Petraeus. I thought he was stronger and smarter than most. I was wrong. .
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:12 pm
When the emails start getting deleted and the use of personal email for official government business is found out we will be on to something.
My bad, Bush Administration already pulled that stunt.
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:15 pm
cc, this sounds like it could be a little murky. The timing is a little too coincidental.
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
4:16 pm
Del & cc
I hadn’t read your comments on Petraeus before I made mine. Did not mean to overlook them.
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:16 pm
He did not have sex with that woman, Miss ______. Of course, that might depend on what the definition of “is” is!
Wait . . . I lost my train of thought there!
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
4:18 pm
Protection of Obama is imperative!
Given what just transpired this past Tuesday, you conspiracy nuts should probably work on finding the second gunman on the grassy knoll!
And his birth certificate…
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:20 pm
Dusty,
No problem here. I hope there’s no linkage to his resignation and that he was scheduled to testify about CIA activities involving Bengahzi,
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:21 pm
Del, I’ve all but given up any notion of coincidences in the political arena. All such described events are just a little too handy.
Not to worry, Dusty. I have a hard time reading everything that is posted!
Hillbilly D
November 9th, 2012
4:23 pm
Don’t people ever learn?.
Nope. They never do. People are the same as they’ve always been and the same as they always will be. Ever generation from the beginning of time has thought it was cutting edge and more advanced than those that came before it. That’s just kidding themselves, Today’s human is no smarter and has no better judgement than all those that came before and that is never going to change.
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:23 pm
“Given what just transpired this past Tuesday, you conspiracy nuts should probably work on finding the second gunman on the grassy knoll!”
We’re working on that now.
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:25 pm
H.D. words of wisdom.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:26 pm
When was Petraesus slated to testify?
Thanks in advance for the link and information.
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:26 pm
“And his birth certificate…”
WHICH one of the various and subdry birth certificates do you reference?
Anyway, we’ll go to work on that issue . . . immediately after we find his college entry forms and transcripts. Maybe the CIA was hiding them?
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
4:26 pm
Well,
At least Petraeus did not try to save his job by having his wife announce, “It’s all just a conspiracy against the general!”
Oh the unforgetable soap opera days of President Clinton that passed before us! .
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:28 pm
And if he was slated to testify, why can’t Congress subpoena him to do so?
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:30 pm
Weeping Mitt,
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/cia-petraeus-dni-clapper-testify-benghazi-next-week-171155262–election.html
cc
November 9th, 2012
4:30 pm
Dusty, I’m convinced that this is just another “vast right-wing conspitacy” . . .
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:31 pm
Del
Thanks. Can he not be issued a subpoena?
Hillbilly D
November 9th, 2012
4:31 pm
And if he was slated to testify, why can’t Congress subpoena him to do so?
I would think that they can and probably will. All this might serve to discredit him a bit (either intentionally or unintentionally) but he made his own bed.
Georgia
November 9th, 2012
4:31 pm
CIA director resigns. Why? Navy Seals reprimanded for classified secrets sold to video gamers. When? Did the terrorists use the video game secrets to attack the consulate at Benghazi? What is going on? I demand to know!!! Someone get Hillary on the phone.
WAW
November 9th, 2012
4:32 pm
Doesn’t appear that you folks have learned anything from this election. It is not what or when Obama does whatever, the ball is in the Republican’s court, either get with the program or continue down the road to the Republican Fiscal Clift. It’s your problem, it’s your ball, and it’s your play. If the country goes down, it’s your claim to failure. The voters have spoken, you know the President’s plan so vote it up or down (just be willing to say goodby to the GOP if you vote No!)
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:34 pm
Hillbilly D
Exactly. This conspiracy about his upcoming testimony and his announcement doesn’t wash.
He can be ordered to testify regardless. If he will not speak and he has been found to have done something illegal, he can be charged regardless.
Cobbian
November 9th, 2012
4:34 pm
Republicans need to compromise and raise taxes on the wealthy. How many times has it been reported in the press that most voters want taxes raised on the wealthy. I am also in favor of raising taxes on everyone – we never could afford the Bush tax cuts in the first place. Then, we need to reform the tax code so that wealthy people don’t get tax breaks for special forms of income, we need to keep the current inheritance taxes, and we need to look at other tax loop-holes, including popular tax breaks for interest paid on home loans.
Finally, the Republican Party has to get out of peoples bedrooms and women’s wombs. I know many Republican women who jumped ship this year and many who didn’t but are getting close to the breaking point. Get off the social issues.
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:35 pm
Weeping Mitt, you would think so, but I’m not sure about it.
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
4:40 pm
Jeez, Dusters.
How many Republicans have gotten caught with their quills in someone else’s ink wells SINCE the Clinton administration.
Off the top of my head… Giuliani, Vitter, Ensign, LaTourette and Ahnuld. Must be lots more…
LOL at those with selective memories!
Del
November 9th, 2012
4:40 pm
Some speculation that he might be falling on his sword or that he’s being set up as the scape goat. In time the truth will come out if there’s a smoking gun.
Hillbilly D
November 9th, 2012
4:41 pm
I’m not a lawyer but it’s my impression Congress can pretty much subpoena anybody they want to, any time they want. Of course, somebody still has to find you and serve you, I would think.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
4:42 pm
Del
If he refuses to testify next week and then refuses to testify if subpoenaed then you might be on to something.
However there are several steps that must take place before that happens.