Poll Position: How to avoid the fiscal cliff?
The election is over, but there is real work to be done in Washington before President Obama even begins his second term. On Jan. 1, about seven and a half weeks from now, we take a flying leap over the fiscal cliff unless Obama and Congress can strike a deal to avoid it. Oh, and the debt ceiling will probably have to be raised again before the end of 2012, too.
How should Obama and Congress steer us away from the fiscal cliff? (Please vote for one tax option and one spending option)
- Raise tax rates (53 Votes)
- Cut spending across the board, cap future increases (48 Votes)
- Reform entitlements to slow spending growth (46 Votes)
- Close tax loopholes (45 Votes)
- Focus on defense, other discretionary spending (39 Votes)
- Do nothing; bring on the fiscal cliff! (19 Votes)
- Be revenue-neutral, spark growth to raise revenue (18 Votes)
- Create a VAT or other new tax (4 Votes)
Total Voters: 163
Loading ...This time, Obama is inheriting a mess from himself. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that going over the fiscal cliff would plunge us back into recession and push the unemployment rate back above 9 percent. So it’s a pretty darn important issue.
If Bob Woodward’s recent book portrayed him accurately, as a man who misreads his negotiating partners and overestimates his ability to best them, he’ll need every bit of those seven and a half weeks to reach an accommodation with the still-Democratic-held Senate and the still-GOP-led House.
(Obama’s first order of business? He’s leaving next week for a trip to visit three crucial allies of ours: Thailand, Burma and Cambodia.)
By all accounts, Obama and Congress will be taking another shot at the kind of “grand bargain” they nearly reached in the summer of 2011 before Obama reportedly tried to squeeze more revenue out of the deal and Speaker John Boehner balked. In practical political terms, this means Obama and Boehner have to cut a deal: The Senate has been an inoperable mess the past two years, there appears to be no bridge between Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and in his post-re-election afterglow Obama can afford to twist the arms of Senate Democrats even without Reid’s cooperation (and maybe some House Democrats without Nancy Pelosi’s help) if that’s what it takes.
In practical policy terms, we can expect some combination of more revenue and less spending. Any more detail beyond that is where it gets cloudy.
More revenue can take a lot of forms: Higher tax rates, fewer tax loopholes, some combination of the two, something totally new (such as a federal consumption tax, like the VATs in Europe). In reality, the revenue situation is not going to improve until the economy gets back to its pre-recession self.
Likewise, spending cuts mean different things to different people. In Washington, a spending “cut” usually really means slower increases in spending than would have happened otherwise. That has worked in the past, but time is no longer on our side. The only way merely slower growth in spending would work is if it takes place in a serious way in the main drivers of budget deficits: Social Security, Medicare and, to some degree, Medicaid.
So, what’s the best way to go about each problem? That’s this week’s Poll Position question. See the choices in the nearby poll and vote — you’ll be able to select two, preferably one on the tax side and one on the spending side — and then explain your position in the comments thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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303 comments Add your comment
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
12:48 pm
Finn,
You are exactly what I am talking about. One track minds, insults, and no care for the country.
George W. Bush was no more retarded than you are. I take that back. err. Wrong comparison.
Bush was not retarded and neither is Obama. But the goals of each were and are different and I prefer what Bush advocated which was freedom from terror and help for the country.
Now say something “smart” as usual. It is a routine we know too well.
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
12:49 pm
The only way merely slower growth in spending would work is if it takes place in a serious way in the main drivers of budget deficits: Social Security, Medicare and, to some degree, Medicaid.
Yes, in the GOP’s parallel universe called Ostrichland, there are only TWO huge components of federal expenditures, not THREE.
You seem to be “forgetting” one, Kyle.
Given that, how in the name of (your favorite deity here) can you economic liberals/spendaholics be considered credible on this matter?
Heckle and JayKyle
November 9th, 2012
12:51 pm
Derek Thompson of The Atlantic apparently agrees with me: “fiscal cliff’ is an idiotic expression. He went with “fiscal fast”, and don’t you just love the alliteration. He used a weight loss metaphor. He then penned this creative explosion of diet metaphors that only he could have written. I guess FrankenCliff was taken.
Why is it that every single blogger in america has to try to be creative? I’ve gotten to where I hate that word. Now, because of the very creative Derek Thompson of The Atlantic, every voter who read his Fiscal Cliff explanation thinks that the only way Uncle Sam can avoid squirting himself in the eye when he pees is if he stops doing the “all-grapefruit” diet. Or something equally wet……
No, Derek Thompson of The Atlantic must have read my meme on the term “fiscal cliff” (misleading term), and, it’s almost understandable that it sparked all that creativity in him. He’s a real creative guy.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
12:51 pm
Jay’s blog gets a mention in Alternet.org
http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/5-very-bad-things-happened-karl-rove-just-2-days
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
12:51 pm
Dawg79
Obama is not a dictator yet. Congress represents you but you cannot throw them out of Washington just to get everything going the Democratic way. So far, we are still America, not Cuba.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
12:55 pm
Dusty, you have a life-sized cut out of W in your room? In his flight suit or in his cowboy get-up?
By the way, when does Obama get to play dress up?
All-American Angry White Male (The vanishing breed)
November 9th, 2012
12:57 pm
“So far, we are still America, not Cuba.”
The key words being, “so far”!
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
12:58 pm
Finn:(as usual)
Alternet is a liberal mouthpiece. What did you expect? A favorable mention of Kyle’s blog?
stands for decibels
November 9th, 2012
1:01 pm
Get rid of the SS cap that says you don’t have to pay into it on income above $200,000.
$200,000? ha. Try $110,100.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:01 pm
“He didn’t ruin the place in 4 years, he isn’t going to ruin it in the next 4.”
He didn’t help it much, either.
Get used to calling Obama’s term of office “The Lost Years”.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:03 pm
“By the way, when does Obama get to play dress up?”
He’s been playing at being President since 2009. I’m still waiting for him to act like one.
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
1:03 pm
Kyle, did you ever come up with that third HUGE component?
Maybe one of the other kids here knows the answer…
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
1:07 pm
Not a dime in new taxes until Santa gets his giving under control.
stands for decibels
November 9th, 2012
1:08 pm
So, what’s the best way to go about each problem?
Step one: pass a law that says “we were just kidding about the cliff thingie.” (which of course they’ll do, one way or another; everyone knows it, few will say it.)
Step two: legislate a sensible mix of income tax increases, cut a very few low-hanging-fruit Defense projects, and expand spending on infrastructure, transit, and alternative energy to put more people to work.
Step three: implement the rest of the PPACA, including any kinds of semi-legal extortion required to get dimwits like Nathan Deal to expand Medicaid, and of course allow an autonomous Medicare board to find more payment efficiencies–there are plenty to be had out there. Oh, and (duh) re-importation of scrips + negotiate better pricing with Pharma.
Step Four: repeat all of the above until we are at 4-5% unemployment, and only then take a hard look at how we might achieve budget solvency, if needed, by cutting some more spending, but not until then.
(Hey, you asked.)
/drive-by
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
1:08 pm
Did someone mention the The Lost Decade of the Middle Class?
Since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income and wealth, and shed some—but by no means all—of its characteristic faith in the future.
Fully 85% of self-described middle-class adults say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for middle-class people to maintain their standard of living. Of those who feel this way, 62% say “a lot” of the blame lies with Congress, while 54% say the same about banks and financial institutions, 47% about large corporations, 44% about the Bush administration, 39% about foreign competition and 34% about the Obama administration. Just 8% blame the middle class itself a lot.
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2012/08/sdt-2012-08-22-Middle-Class-01-01.png
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
1:08 pm
Dusty
The election is over, sir. Please stop with the crying and moaning.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
1:09 pm
Obozo’s exceedingly lazy. His idea of dress-up is putting on a flag pin.
oops
November 9th, 2012
1:12 pm
i didn’t like having to choose one, but I picked entitlements because they’re the core of the problem
but I’m ok with raising revenue too, as long as it only comes through reducing deductions and closing loopholes, although ideally those efforts would be used to lower marginal rates
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
1:14 pm
OH NO!
The enraged tibby violates Kyle’s Rule #1!!!
AGAIN!!!
Unprovoked personal insults cannot be tolerated!
And our serial miscreant MUST pay for his crimes! After all, 74 strikes and you’re out, right?
Otherwise there will be permanent lawlessness and anarchy here!
Kyle, do your duty to god and country and permanently ban this uncivil person!
Schnort.
oops
November 9th, 2012
1:14 pm
and we can afford to cut a decent chunk out of military spending too, and discretionary
if common sense prevailed, this wouldn’t be very difficult
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:14 pm
“expand spending on infrastructure, transit, and alternative energy to put more people to work.”
Yeah, more deficit spending. Worked so well the last time . . . .
iggy
November 9th, 2012
1:15 pm
“we made it through 8 years with a retarded guy….”
I didnt particularly like Clinton either but no need to insult mentally challenged.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:15 pm
The Incredible Shrinking Middle Class is the biggest myth ever perpetrated on the American electorate.
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
1:16 pm
Weeping Mitt, mam
You do your “thing” and I’ll do mine. This is an opinion blog. We haven’t all been brain washed. to speak in chorus.
Lt Dan
November 9th, 2012
1:17 pm
RE: letting Bush tax cuts expire (it hits middle class and upper wage earners) -
Based on figures from the CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation, federal taxes would increase by a total of $423 billion in 2013, if the tax cuts are allowed to expire.[54] The non-partisan Tax Policy Center has estimated that for 83% of households in the U.S. there would be an average tax increase of $3,701.
423 billion is a good chunk of change, but it does not offset an annual trillion dollar deficit.
What do we cut?
Since more of the federal budget is spent on discretionary spending than defense, I think that should be cut before defense.
As far as defense spending goes, I think the current missions of our military should be thoughtfully assessed, priorities established, and then see where we can shift funding or make cuts.
I personally think our national borders should be part of the Dept of Defense, not a separate fed agency (Border Patrol). Using existing military assets to patrol the border (drones, other aerial assets, combat trained personnel (for the more dangerous border locations, ie drug cartels) makes more sense to me.
To the person who commented that Russia is not going to invade anytime soon, ask the people of the nation of Georgia (former part of Soviet Union).
I think we should replace the current tax code with the Fair Tax, but government people who enjoy the power of taxation don’t like that.
stands for decibels
November 9th, 2012
1:18 pm
one more thing:
Yeah, more deficit spending.
Yep. That’s what we have to do. you can either cry about it or go on allowing people to lend us money for next to nothing in interest for the foreseeable future.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
1:18 pm
Not sure how increased spending helps to fix the deficit or keep us from the fiscal cliff, but apparently it’s one of only three tools in the Democrat toolbox, the others being higher taxes and more regulation.
Don't Tread
November 9th, 2012
1:18 pm
History will repeat itself…there will be a “deal” made to cut spending in exchange for a tax increase, and the spending cuts will be “forgotten” before the ink is dry. (”What? We didn’t agree to that!”) It happens every time.
Oh…and by the way, taxes were going up anyway…remember the 0bama-engineered permanent tax hike covered up with a temporary tax cut? The temporary tax cut has expired.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:18 pm
“The election is over, sir.”
Yes it is, Weeping Mitt.
Perhaps you can now change your moniker back to what it used to be in celebration of that ending.
stands for decibels
November 9th, 2012
1:19 pm
oh, and tib, we’re not going broke.
http://www.alternet.org/economy/8-facts-prove-our-govt-not-going-broke?page=0%2C1&paging=off
/drive-by
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:21 pm
Stands, please tell us how spending $225k for a “job” that generates about 10% in revenues back to the entity that spent that money in the first place does ANYTHING to reduce the deficit.
Dusty
November 9th, 2012
1:22 pm
Bring the stait jacket. JamVet has escaped from Bookman’s blog.. Still trying to tell Kyle how to run his blog. …..Tiresome…
I’m going to lunch.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:23 pm
Any article that:
A: Tells us we do not have a debt crisis, and
B: Comes from alternet.org
Has:
C: No credibility whatsoever in intelligent discussion.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
1:25 pm
“Tiresome”
yes, the majority of times you can be
Thanks for the acknowleding what was already known.
Why the long faces?
Cheer up.
Have a super day and weekend. It is going to be nice.
JamVet
November 9th, 2012
1:26 pm
The Incredible Shrinking Middle Class is the biggest myth ever perpetrated on the American electorate.
What an idiot.
(OH NO! I must now be banned! Schnort)
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 9th, 2012
1:28 pm
I just wish states like Georgia would stop being welfare states and support themselves.
The very poor Southern red states take far more in Federal aid than they send in with taxes.
The Northern blue states which aren’t poor basically subsidize the very poor rural south, by sending in more in taxes than they receive back.
The Southern red moocher states must learn to live within their means or we are in big trouble.
Heckle and JayKyle
November 9th, 2012
1:31 pm
Alternet’s Lauren Kelley used the word Schadenfreud twice in a piece today about the unhinging of Karl Rove. Unhinged is the most overused word, now, in the history of media. Schadenfreude is so infuriatingly overused, that the only way to calm myself down is with FrusenGladje. Why, if it weren’t for the farfegnugen of my car’s interior layout, I’d have driven myself off the financial cliff a long time ago.
Kyle Wingfield
November 9th, 2012
1:33 pm
Cheesy @ 1:28: There’s been plenty of discussion on that point in the last few days. It’s time for you to memorize another talking point.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 9th, 2012
1:37 pm
Cheesy @ 1:28: There’s been plenty of discussion on that point in the last few days. It’s time for you to memorize another talking point.
http://truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/item/17515-romney-decries-his-red-state-southern-base-as-lazy-moochers-the-47
You’ll be the first to know Kyle.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
1:40 pm
So alternet says the government isn’t going broke?
Not by the “I can’t be broke because I still have some blank checks” standard of not being broke, no.
Idiots.
Hopefully, this sentence signalled your departure?
November 9th, 2012
1:41 pm
“Have a super day and weekend. It is going to be nice.”
Hopefully, this sentence signaled your departure?
All-American Angry White Male (The vanishing breed)
November 9th, 2012
1:46 pm
“Selling Texas to Mexico is the single best idea on this blog to date.”
You can’t sell a state that is planning secession . . .
papa pink
November 9th, 2012
1:46 pm
Reduce the tax loopholes, reduce all Fed Spending except the defense. Put Congress and President on a performance plan. If they don’t produce, they don’t get paid. Hitting the pocket book will make them work together. Finally fix the Congressional retirement plan (No wonder people run for federal office with thier retirement benefits).
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:50 pm
” I’d suggest expanding the sale to include the entire southeastern united states.”
Tell you what. Just let us go, debt, deficit spending and all.
In 30 years, you’ll be asking us to bail you out or defend you from attack, and we’ll just be laughing at you.
Reality
November 9th, 2012
1:50 pm
Here is a clue….
The majority of people voted for Obama. This means that a majority of people liked what he and the Democrats said compared to the Republicans. How about giving Obama’s plan a chance? The republicans in the House need to simply get OUT OF THE WAY and allow the people’s choice to make real progress!!!
Let’s try it and THEN see what happens!!!!!
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
1:50 pm
Nope, but thanks for the hospitality.
You do not make the rules here. But you are welcome to continue your crying, weeping, pouting, rants and raves if just can’t help yourself
Be me guest
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
1:51 pm
You can’t sell a state that is planning secession . . .
If we beat em to it…but we gotta act fast.
Stephenson Billings
November 9th, 2012
1:54 pm
“Id say making people like Cheesy Grits pay a higher rate than 14 percent when the average America pays a much higher percentage would be a start.”
Effective Income Tax Rates:
Bottom fifth of earners: -12.3 percent
Second-to-bottom fifth: -4.2 percent
Middle fifth: 4.1 percent
Second-highest fifth: 8.2 percent
Highest fifth: 17.3 percent
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/aug/09/barack-obama/barack-obama-says-most-americans-pay-higher-tax-ra/
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
1:54 pm
You don’t say!
A Pew Research survey of voters by religion found that a higher percentage of Mormons voted for George W. Bush in 2004 than Mitt Romney in 2012. According to Pew, in 2004 Bush got 80 percent of the Mormon vote, while Romney got 78 percent this year.
The absolutely worst candidate you could pick to run. Karl Rove was correct about that!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
1:55 pm
“How about giving Obama’s plan a chance?”
We did.
He got EVERYTHING he wanted in his first 2 years, Reality.
IT DIDN’T WORK!!!!!
He was elected because he’s popular, not because he was competent!