How the GOP needs to change, and how it doesn’t
Tuesday was a brutal night for Republicans.
Incumbent presidents are tough to beat, but Barack Obama was about as vulnerable as they come. The economy is stagnant; his signature legislative achievement is unpopular; his party weathered sharp losses in the midterm elections – by now, you know the litany by heart. Yet Mitt Romney appears to have flipped only two states Obama won in 2008 (pending the final result in Florida).
When political parties lose brutally, a lot of new conventional wisdom crops up. Some of it’s right, some of it’s wrong. Here’s an early take on which is which:
1. Republicans have to move toward the left.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. There are two major political parties in this country in large part because they represent two sets of durable, mainstream beliefs. Sometimes one or the other does a better job of representing its beliefs, but neither ideology will be permanently defeated. Which leads me to …
2. The GOP has to ditch the tea party.
Wrong. Just two years ago, the GOP stopped Democrats’ congressional super-majorities in their tracks thanks to tea partyers. America hasn’t changed dramatically in that time, even if a successful tea-party candidate needs more polish than we’ve seen out of some of them (hello, Christine O’Donnell) to attract a broader audience.
The original animating concern of the tea party — halting the rapid growth of the federal government, from bailouts to debt to Obamacare — could have been a political winner Tuesday. (We don’t have to wait for the historians to marvel that the GOP in 2012 nominated the only guy who couldn’t capitalize on Obamacare’s lack of popularity.)
Romney might have made up for that failing if he’d joined the growing ranks of conservatives who support breaking up the biggest banks to ensure none is too big to fail. His comment during the second debate about his party’s devotion to Big Business at the expense of small businesses was his chance. He didn’t take it. A Republican with 2016 ambitions might, soon.
3. The GOP has to reach out to non-white voters.
This one’s absolutely true. There is plenty to criticize in Romney’s lack of minority outreach, but this is not his problem alone. Nor will it go away if the GOP merely highlights the promising, young, non-white stars they already have, such as Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio.
Republicans have to explain why conservative ideas are good for minorities. They can’t simply trot out their ideas and expect minorities to recognize their brilliance when those voters have been told by Democrats, many of them for generations, that those ideas are intended to benefit other (read: white) people. When Republicans fail to engage minority voters, they effectively reinforce the Democrats’ argument.
It will take more than talking, though. It will take action. Here’s an idea about one policy that makes minorities most skeptical about the right: voter ID laws. Why not fight the notion these laws are about suppressing voting, rather than reducing fraud, by taking proactive steps to help put IDs in the hands of the people who think they’re being targeted?
4. Republicans must drop social conservatism.
Wrong. Social conservatism isn’t wholly out of the mainstream. Gallup’s long-term tracking of public attitudes about abortion, for instance, show the pro-life position is as strong as it’s been since Roe v. Wade. What’s out of the mainstream is a social conservative who can’t talk about opposing abortion without sounding as if he’s endorsing the act of rape. That cost the GOP two Senate seats and surely hurt Romney’s standing with some women.
Gay marriage may be different. Older voters who oppose it altogether are being replaced every day by 18-year-olds who couldn’t care less — and who don’t seem to change their stance as they get older. There was a time when Republicans could have pushed civil unions to make all couples equal before the law without changing the traditional definition of marriage. That time may have passed.
5. Georgia Republicans are a few years away from facing some of the same issues as the national GOP.
True, true, true. I’ll explain how they can avoid the same fate in a column coming soon to a blog very, very near you.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Michael H. Smith ~ The Socialist Monster no longer hides under the bed in Greece...
November 8th, 2012
12:34 pm
Conservatives label lazy as lazy and we know unlike some misspeaking people on Kyle’s blog, exactly what ethnic group receives the most of the social assistance from government.
Oh, and by the way, they don’t look like obama and they experience the lowest unemployment rates of all ethnic groups in this country and most of them can’t verbally speak more than two words of Spanish either.
kelly
November 8th, 2012
12:37 pm
Kyle, I’m not sure you are right about Obama’s abortion position (if you are referring to his vote as an Illinois state senator). The reason he didn’t vote for the partial birth ban was he felt it would be restrictive of legitimate abortions. More important however, he knew there was already a law on the books to cover the situation you describe. So I’m not sure it’s correct to claim Obama supports killing the unsuccessfully aborted fetus.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:37 pm
Actually, I don’t care if the Cons come to reality or not. Obama now has a mandate and we need to focus on that for a while.
Let the cons lick their wounds and figure out a way forward.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 8th, 2012
12:37 pm
8 million white voters stayed home? Obviously they didn’t feel represented by the Republican candidate.
So, of course, that must mean that we need a more squishy, two faced Northeast moderate that governs exactly like any other ate up big government tax and spend liberal would.
Or maybe not.
Plies
November 8th, 2012
12:38 pm
I just don’t see how the GOP will reach minority voters without changing on any of the other points mentioned here. As one commented said, “repackaging the same material and trying to sell it as different.” I, for one, would likely vote GOP if they would drop the social issues
md
November 8th, 2012
12:38 pm
“To wit, contending that the world’s greatest scientific minds and their theories are conspiracies is a globally cooled loser.”
Those minds are having a hard time trying to explain why co2 is still rising while temp has leveled off……it’s suddenly NOT the direct relationship they thought it to be……go figure.
“Quit being so Hitler-like in your insane wish to outlaw labor unions. THEY have helped you working class stiffs enormously and yet you spit on them”
And there is a huge difference between a local union and a 3rd party national…….the later is very hitleresqe…….
HDB
November 8th, 2012
12:39 pm
ideasbm
November 8th, 2012
12:24 pm
“You just keep on keeping on for the party. You cannot stop blacks for voting on race only. They are too many years away from being color blind.”
Really? Please explain why black people voted for WHITE candidates ALL Presidential campaigns prior to 2008???
” They will learn that many black politicians are bad for them just like we know many white politicians are bad for us. It will take a few mayor Campbell’s around the country like in DC, Detroit and Newark to turn around the mindset. Younger aged black voters will be the ones that turn it around. I dare anyone to tell me Obama got re-elected for no other reason than he is black.”
I DARE!! Obama was the best candidate…and he had a positive message to many to counter the lies of Mitt Romney!!
” He pushes through the most disliked health change the country has ever seen, he triples the debt load of America, he has raised more taxes than any president before him (most hidden), he is one of the most partisan politicians in memory, he works less than any president in recent memory, he vacations more than any president in recent history, he makes promises he never keeps (too many to mention) and he is one of the most dishonest people to ever hold the office. So how did he get elected???? WE ALL KNOW….”
Excuse me…but Obama started what THEODORE ROOSEVELT tried to start…and many people LIKE the aspects of Obamacare! Many people now have coverage tha they weren’table to get under Republican Administrations; Ronald Reagan QUADRUPLED the national debt and George W. Bush DOUBLED the national debt….why aren’t you railing against them?? George W. Bush took MORE VACATION TIME than Obama…and he didn’t have to face the obstructions that Obama did!!
You need to wake up and look at the truth!!1
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:40 pm
I thought ya’ll were taking yer country back?
Oh, did you mean “county”? …that explains a lot.
Kyle Wingfield
November 8th, 2012
12:42 pm
To JamVet and others who say I’m wrong about point one, here’s one telling little statistic from the national exit poll:
Voters said, 51% to 43%, that they think government does too much rather than too little. Given what Republicans and Democrats preach, that ought to bode well for the GOP candidate. Yet, while Obama won those who want government to do more 81%-17%, Romney only won among those who want less government 74%-24%.
The fact that one-quarter of those who want less government actually thought Barack Obama would be a better choice than Mitt Romney suggests Romney had a significant problem in making himself the candidate of less government in a year when the electorate says it wanted … less government. If those voters had gone to him 81%-17% (i.e., the way the more-government voters went to Obama), and all other things being equal, there would have been about a 3.5-point shift in the popular vote to Romney. That would have made it about 51.3% for Romney, 46.7% for Obama.
This was a national-level question, so we can’t know for sure how that would have affected the electoral vote. But I’d take my chances that 51.3% of the popular vote would have pushed Romney well past 270.
Jay
November 8th, 2012
12:42 pm
MD,
At this point it no longer matters what caused it, it happened, it’s happening, and it’s getting worse. What we need are plans to deal with the consequences. More and more events like Sandy will occur whether we do anything or not, we need to be prepared for them.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:42 pm
Bookman wrote an excellent article on this.
They are going to blame everything under the sun but it absolutely is not that they have moved to far to the right.
H.E. Pennypacker
November 8th, 2012
12:42 pm
The GOP war on math and facts continues with ideasbm, (an apt screen name if there ever was one).
I am not going to do all of his work for him, but here is an easy one to disprove, vacation days. Let’s see how far back we have to go to find a President that refutes his error…….OH!!!!!, only one, George W. Bush.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-20093801.html
I will go ahead and beat you to the punch and refute your likely response…..yes CBS is liberal MSM and can’t be trusted to count vacation days.
And tripling of the debt? I would love to see how you get moving from just over $10 trillion to ~$16 trillion and call that tripling. I need Fox to unskew that math.
md
November 8th, 2012
12:45 pm
“Obama now has a mandate and we need to focus on that for a while.”
No. he does not have a mandate, and to think he does would be a major mistake.
The people were split 50/50 and also voted to keep the House in the hands of the gop……thinking that is a mandate is the part of the problem.
Jay
November 8th, 2012
12:46 pm
Kyle,
The problem with that statement is the Republican party has lost all credibility in being the party of smaller government after the Bush years. Why would the party of less government create the DHS and sign off on the Patriot Act?
What the parties preach means little when they practice the opposite.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:47 pm
in a year when the electorate says it wanted … less government.
Voters said they thought government does too much doesn’t translate to them wanting the government to do less.
Then you have to weigh where each candidate would apply the cuts. One guy wants to cut programs the middle and lower classes use, the other candidate, not so much.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:47 pm
Conservatives label lazy as lazy and we know unlike some misspeaking people on Kyle’s blog, exactly what ethnic group receives the most of the social assistance from government.
Far more whites on welfare than minorities.
Look it up.
Most minority people I know work 2 or 3 jobs for low pay and very little benefits.
This is part of the Republican problem
They see poor and think ” well they choose to live that way ” or ” They just dont want to work ”
When neither is true. They do want to work and most of them work very very hard doing jobs we wouldn’t want to do.
They just want a chance at a decent life.
Yet they get labeled moochers etc. You saw it in Romney 47 percent speech.
This is how Republicans truly feel and it just doesn’t match reality.
H.E. Pennypacker
November 8th, 2012
12:49 pm
Kyle @ 12:42, I think that is a valid point, but would assert that the question posed is more conceptual and rarely withstands detailed follow-up. When people are then asked about specific elements of the government like Social Security, Medicare, societal safety nets, the EPA, etc., those numbers moderate substantially.
In other words, people like the concept of small government, yet rarely are comfortable with its practice.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:49 pm
md, let alternet.org break it down for you:
A Republican President is re-elected in 2004 with 284 electoral votes and the pundits say he has the “political capital” to push an extreme right-wing mandate. A Democratic President gets re-elected in 2012 with 303 electoral votes, and they’re telling us he needs to “unite a divided country.”
Sorry, chump, mandate is happening.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:50 pm
The people were split 50/50 and also voted to keep the House in the hands of the gop……thinking that is a mandate is the part of the problem.
It absolutely is a mandate.
Obama won easily and the Dems picked up seats in the Senate in a year where they had many more at risk.
The also picked up seats in the house.
It was a clear spanking.
md
November 8th, 2012
12:50 pm
“At this point it no longer matters what caused it, it happened, it’s happening, and it’s getting worse. What we need are plans to deal with the consequences. More and more events like Sandy will occur whether we do anything or not, we need to be prepared for them.”
And if it turns out to be part of the earths natural cycle, there isn’t a dang thing we can do about it…..but you are more than welcome to crash your economy while thinking you know best…..
td
November 8th, 2012
12:50 pm
Yes, Obama won and we have him for President for the next 4 years. The problem is you libs on this blog think this is some huge mandate to go to the far left. The problem is this is not the agenda the vast majority of the American people voted for.
Here is some exit poll results on some of the issues: (Remember the exit polls this year threw out most conservative states like Georgia so the numbers are really a little more skewed towards the left):
Should taxes be raised to help cut the deficit: 63% NO, 33% YES
Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?
The housing market 8%
Unemployment 38%
Taxes 14%
Rising prices 37%
What should happen to the 2010 health care law?
Expand it or leave it as is 44%
Repeal some of it or repeal all of it 49%
Which is closer to your view:
Government should do more to solve problems 43%
Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 51%
So could someone tell me where the liberal agenda is here?
Logical Dude
November 8th, 2012
12:52 pm
Kyle says :The italicized sentences represent the new conventional wisdom I’m talking about.
Well, you are missing BIG one by not mentioning the obvious.
Move away from being identified as the “Christian” party. The Republicans are much bigger than that, but nobody can tell because it seems every single solitary move they make is to be more theological.
And the country is moving away from theological based thinking, so trying to rule by theological rules just makes Republicans look like they want to turn us into a Christian version of a mid-east country.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:53 pm
td, what is your source for those polls?
and by the way, when you write: “you libs on this blog think this is some huge mandate to go to the far left.”
Obama is not going to go the far left. If he was going to do that he would of done it in the first term.
md
November 8th, 2012
12:54 pm
“A Republican President is re-elected in 2004 with 284 electoral votes and the pundits say he has the “political capital” to push an extreme right-wing mandate. A Democratic President gets re-elected in 2012 with 303 electoral votes, and they’re telling us he needs to “unite a divided country.”
Sorry, chump, mandate is happening.”
For starters, I never thought Bush had a mandate either……..
And suite yourself, but thinking that way will see nothing accomplished in the next 4 years…
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:56 pm
“The white establishment is now the minority. And the voters, many of them, feel that the economic system is stacked against them and they want stuff. You are going to see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama. Overwhelming black vote for President Obama. And women will probably break President Obama’s way. People feel that they are entitled to things and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things?”
- Bill Orielly
And there is your problem Republicans.
Because everything he said is a damn lie.
Just noticed Bookman has wrote something about this.
Gonna go read it now. Its nice every once in awhile to read something rational.
JDW
November 8th, 2012
12:56 pm
@Kyle…”Voters said, 51% to 43%, that they think government does too much rather than too little”
Nice antidote but not really worth much…WHAT is it they wish to give up. Remember the Tea Partiers and “Keep Your Hands Off My Medicare”?
My guess is that most of those wish someone else to give up something.
The other issue is regional…remember that last Gallup Poll…the only region Romney carried was the South.
Kyle Wingfield
November 8th, 2012
12:56 pm
Jay @ 12:46: Yes, that’s certainly part of the GOP’s problem. But hard to practice it when you’re out of power — and hard to win power when your candidate’s track record as governor on this issue is spotty at best.
Michael H. Smith ~ The Socialist Monster no longer hides under the bed in Greece...
November 8th, 2012
12:57 pm
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:47 pm
You obviously failed reading comprehension in order to have made such an ignorant reply as you did. Anyone who has half a functioning brain would logically conclude I was talking about white people receiving the most government assistance and suffering the least from unemployment.
Now, have you anything less intelligent to say than you’ve already said?
DeborahinAthens
November 8th, 2012
12:57 pm
Kyle@12:42: THINK! All we hear from the Republicans is that they want less government, and all we fracking see from them is more and more asinine restrictions of liberties that should NEVER be left to the government. While I don’t care for all of Ron Paul’s ideas, can you not see why those of us out here that have a brain can see the clear and present hypocrisy of the Republican Party? Why on Earth can YoU not see it? I used to listen to Boortz, years and years ago, he was. libertarian, and he says he still is, but he lets these hypocrites rule his show. After a few years of his capitulation to the Dark Side, I just refused to listen to him. You are all hypocrites, and the American people are way more intelligent than Karl Rove gives us credit for.
md
November 8th, 2012
12:57 pm
And for the record, a mandate wouldn’t be stopped by the House………
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:58 pm
Obama is not going to go the far left. If he was going to do that he would of done it in the first term.
Thats what they dont understand
Obama is a moderate. Look at all the drone strikes.
He just looks way to the left because they have moved that far to the right.
Well out of step with the country.
cc
November 8th, 2012
12:58 pm
They BOTH suck@12:20 pm:
“If you believe Dusty’s diatribe to be accurate, you are welcome to provide unbiased studies to back that up.”
Dusty is entitled to an opinion. Neither she nor I need to provide “unbiased articles” to support it. Your description of her post as a diatribe can be argued. When did expressing an opinion become a “diatribe”? Can you provide unbiased articles to support your claim?
Asinine . . .
td
November 8th, 2012
12:59 pm
Finn McCool (The System isn’t Broken; It’s Fixed)
November 8th, 2012
12:53 pm
Those are the exit poll data that all the news sources pay a firm to collect. You can find the exact same data on CNN, NY Times or Fox. I happen to google it and Fox cam up first:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-exit-poll
Kyle Wingfield
November 8th, 2012
1:00 pm
Finn @ 12:49: And how did that mandate work out for Bush? IIRC, he got virtually nothing he sought in his second term, except the surge in Iraq, even before the Dems took back Congress. No immigration reform, no SS reform …
If Obama’s wise, he’ll learn from that experience.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
1:01 pm
You obviously failed reading comprehension in order to have made such an ignorant reply as you did. Anyone who has half a functioning brain would logically conclude I was talking about white people receiving the most government assistance and suffering the least from unemployment.
Now, have you anything less intelligent to say than you’ve already said?
No
But my point still stands.
and BTW. Chill out.
@@
November 8th, 2012
1:01 pm
why is it that when blacks are outta work its because theyre lazy, but when whites are outta work its the governments fault?
Chronic unemployment is what I have a problem with regardless of race.
You would benefit from reading Larry Elder’s column today.
Obama Re-elected — 9-Year-Old Black Kid Can Breathe Easy
It was the results of the study that I found most interesting:
In 1991, researchers for the National Race and Politics Survey asked the same questions of both blacks and whites. Blacks, for example, were also asked if they considered blacks “aggressive or violent,” “boastful,” “complaining,” “lazy” or “irresponsible.”
While 52 percent of whites agreed with the statement “blacks are aggressive or violent,” 59 percent of blacks also agreed. On the question of blacks being boastful, more blacks than whites agreed, at 57 percent and 45 percent, respectively. On “blacks are complaining,” 51 percent of blacks agreed, while fewer whites, at 41 percent, agreed with that statement. Fewer whites (34 percent) than blacks (39 percent) agreed that “blacks are lazy.”
Stanford University’s political scientist Paul M. Sniderman and survey research specialist Thomas Piazza examined the 1991 survey. They write: “In every case, blacks are at least as likely as whites to hold a negative view of blacks. … Indeed, when it comes to judgments of whether blacks as a group exhibit socially undesirable characteristics, where there is a statistically significant difference between the views of blacks and whites, it always takes the form of blacks expressing a more negative evaluation of other blacks than do whites.” Are blacks, who consistently score higher than whites on self-esteem tests, racist against themselves? According to the National Race and Politics Survey, apparently so — thus the absurdity of branding someone racist merely for holding “negative” racial views.
Surprised?
Not me. The racist tag is a convenient distraction…a cheap tactic employed by the left.
Kyle Wingfield
November 8th, 2012
1:01 pm
Which is not to say he shouldn’t try to get significant legislation passed. Just that acting like the votes for him counted and the ones for the House didn’t is a good way to ensure nothing happens. (Remember, Bush couldn’t act on his proclaimed mandate even with his party holding Congress.)
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 8th, 2012
1:03 pm
[Minority] voters have been told by Democrats, many of them for generations, that those ideas are intended to benefit other (read: white) people.
———-
Democrats: Divisive, racist fearmongers.
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
1:04 pm
Bottom line white America sees the country changing and they dont like it
You are seeing it played out in the countries Politics.
Its a fight they cant win but they are still gonna go down swinging.
They BOTH suck
November 8th, 2012
1:04 pm
md
Hang in there little dude. It will be alright.
jconservative
November 8th, 2012
1:07 pm
independent thinker @! 11:41 am
Learn to read.
spaceman109
November 8th, 2012
1:08 pm
finn…..president obama got nearly 9 million votes less compared to 2008. that is hardly a mandate.
td
November 8th, 2012
1:08 pm
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
12:56 pm
You are living in a dream world my friend because everything Bill said is true (and as a conservative I do not like the facts he laid out).
Look at the exit polls on who voted for Obama and their household income:
2011 total family income:
Total Obama Romney
Under $30,000 20% 63% 35%
$30,000 – $49,999 21% 57% 42%
$50,000 – $99,999 31% 46% 52%
$100,000 – $199,999 21% 44% 54%
$200,000 – $249,999 3% 47% 52%
$250,000 or more 4% 42% 55%
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
1:10 pm
And who’s on food stamps? According to the Census Bureau, 59 percent are white.
Sister Sarah
November 8th, 2012
1:10 pm
ideasbm
November 8th, 2012
12:24 pm
The exact type of person I love to SHUT DOWN! They demonstrate a lot of nerve trying to talk down an entire people. That’s that calling me a dog thing I wrote about earlier. I could give many reasons why I voted for the President but this tyoe of individual does not even deserve my personal consideration. I just crush them.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 8th, 2012
1:11 pm
What Republicans see changing and don’t like is the work ethic, the attacks on free market capitalism, and the degradation of personal responsibility. If those things are lost, then we’re not America any more. Republicans love the idea of America more than Democrats.
md
November 8th, 2012
1:11 pm
“Hang in there little dude. It will be alright.”
I’m merely stating the obvious, this election doesn’t really affect me, I’ve planned accordingly and take life one day at a time………
Not too sure where you are coming from with that kind of comment…..care to expand on your assumptions?
Bye Bye Cheesy Grits
November 8th, 2012
1:13 pm
Good to see the Charter Schools thing pass.
Now parents will have a choice.
Old Testament or New Testament.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 8th, 2012
1:14 pm
Excellent post, td.
What it shows is that if more people did the things necessary to earn a decent income, Romney would have won. Obozo won because he got the loser vote.
They BOTH suck
November 8th, 2012
1:14 pm
What assumptions?
Just told you to hang in there.
No excuses dude, no excuses.
Have one heck of a day.
I