How the GOP needs to change, and how it doesn’t
Tuesday was a brutal night for Republicans.
Incumbent presidents are tough to beat, but Barack Obama was about as vulnerable as they come. The economy is stagnant; his signature legislative achievement is unpopular; his party weathered sharp losses in the midterm elections – by now, you know the litany by heart. Yet Mitt Romney appears to have flipped only two states Obama won in 2008 (pending the final result in Florida).
When political parties lose brutally, a lot of new conventional wisdom crops up. Some of it’s right, some of it’s wrong. Here’s an early take on which is which:
1. Republicans have to move toward the left.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. There are two major political parties in this country in large part because they represent two sets of durable, mainstream beliefs. Sometimes one or the other does a better job of representing its beliefs, but neither ideology will be permanently defeated. Which leads me to …
2. The GOP has to ditch the tea party.
Wrong. Just two years ago, the GOP stopped Democrats’ congressional super-majorities in their tracks thanks to tea partyers. America hasn’t changed dramatically in that time, even if a successful tea-party candidate needs more polish than we’ve seen out of some of them (hello, Christine O’Donnell) to attract a broader audience.
The original animating concern of the tea party — halting the rapid growth of the federal government, from bailouts to debt to Obamacare — could have been a political winner Tuesday. (We don’t have to wait for the historians to marvel that the GOP in 2012 nominated the only guy who couldn’t capitalize on Obamacare’s lack of popularity.)
Romney might have made up for that failing if he’d joined the growing ranks of conservatives who support breaking up the biggest banks to ensure none is too big to fail. His comment during the second debate about his party’s devotion to Big Business at the expense of small businesses was his chance. He didn’t take it. A Republican with 2016 ambitions might, soon.
3. The GOP has to reach out to non-white voters.
This one’s absolutely true. There is plenty to criticize in Romney’s lack of minority outreach, but this is not his problem alone. Nor will it go away if the GOP merely highlights the promising, young, non-white stars they already have, such as Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio.
Republicans have to explain why conservative ideas are good for minorities. They can’t simply trot out their ideas and expect minorities to recognize their brilliance when those voters have been told by Democrats, many of them for generations, that those ideas are intended to benefit other (read: white) people. When Republicans fail to engage minority voters, they effectively reinforce the Democrats’ argument.
It will take more than talking, though. It will take action. Here’s an idea about one policy that makes minorities most skeptical about the right: voter ID laws. Why not fight the notion these laws are about suppressing voting, rather than reducing fraud, by taking proactive steps to help put IDs in the hands of the people who think they’re being targeted?
4. Republicans must drop social conservatism.
Wrong. Social conservatism isn’t wholly out of the mainstream. Gallup’s long-term tracking of public attitudes about abortion, for instance, show the pro-life position is as strong as it’s been since Roe v. Wade. What’s out of the mainstream is a social conservative who can’t talk about opposing abortion without sounding as if he’s endorsing the act of rape. That cost the GOP two Senate seats and surely hurt Romney’s standing with some women.
Gay marriage may be different. Older voters who oppose it altogether are being replaced every day by 18-year-olds who couldn’t care less — and who don’t seem to change their stance as they get older. There was a time when Republicans could have pushed civil unions to make all couples equal before the law without changing the traditional definition of marriage. That time may have passed.
5. Georgia Republicans are a few years away from facing some of the same issues as the national GOP.
True, true, true. I’ll explain how they can avoid the same fate in a column coming soon to a blog very, very near you.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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883 comments Add your comment
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
11:00 am
lying – just like Obama did.
Obama didn’t need to lie to the Cons. That is what Fox News is for – to tell you EXACTLY what you want to hear.
…not a discouraging word….
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
11:01 am
JS, Democrat success depends on a large population of low-information voters.
OBAMAPHONE!!!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
11:02 am
That’s the problem – Murdoch has convinced teh Con rubes that he is putting out news.
lolol. In Fox we trust!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
11:03 am
Democrat success depends on a large population of low-information voters
Republican success depends on a large population of NO-information voters
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:03 am
“Democrat success depends on a large population of low-information voters.”
Well it was Fox who convinced many on the right that Romney was going to win………… just saying
speaking of low information…………… that is you all day, every day
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 9th, 2012
11:05 am
Actually this line is completely correct:
Democrat success depends on a large population of low-information voters
And those are the Con voters we beat year in and year out.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:05 am
LLB
Man up for a change. I know that will be difficult for you to do, since it does’t occur that often with you, but you can do it.
Quit the crying and excuses about Democrat this or that and start some self introspection about those you follow around like a mindless sheep.
Get er done, little son
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
11:11 am
“No Tiberius, Fox does not report news and that’s the problem with the Republican Party.”
Of course, any OBJECTIVE viewer during the times I mentioned would disagree with you, RockyM.
But I’m sure your remote doesn’t go anyplace but to American Idol and MSNBC, does it?
Just Saying..
November 9th, 2012
11:11 am
Lil Barry: I just knew you’d be a good loser. Because you’re a l……well, you know…
4 more years
November 9th, 2012
11:13 am
Clem–why should producers like the ants from the ancient “The Ant and the Grasshopper” have to share anything? I am honestly curious. Hard work should equal success in my opinion.
Just Saying..
November 9th, 2012
11:13 am
Lil Barry man up?
Bhrahahahahaha…
Heckle and JayKyle
November 9th, 2012
11:13 am
Take one issue: fiscal cliff. They’re going to Kick the can down the road. The problem is not fiscal, nor is it accurately described as a cliff. It is, rather, the ultimate expression of the Right vs the Left in the form of unjust allocation of resources.
Allocation of Resources. Now there’s an issue.
4 more years
November 9th, 2012
11:17 am
Lil Barry–At what point do ants give up and stop trying to be responsible?
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:18 am
“Lil Barry man up?
Bhrahahahahaha…”
Well it was a thought. Someone would have to get him out of his highchair, but it would be a start.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
11:19 am
Just Saying: Because you’re a l……well, you know…
———-
Just keep going with that, if it makes you feel better.
4 more years
November 9th, 2012
11:21 am
Just Saying–does “man up” mean get in line for food stamps?
Are producers the “suckers” in this new America?
JDW
November 9th, 2012
11:21 am
@Tiberius…”One cannot be unelected unless one was first, in fact, elected.”
True enough and I give you credit for that initiative.
But, what got us into this discussion is you as a surrogate for the ills of the Republican Party and this statement speaks directly to that…
“You’d like the guy who beat me, JDW. He spent an entire campaign creating a false character – you know, lying – just like Obama did. Fortunately, the voters up here actually saw through the charade and booted him out by a 2-1 margin.”
That is exactly what the Republicans would like to believe today and yet it is a false narrative. The real issues are much harder to stomach but if success is to be had must be faced.
Number One – In both cases the message itself was not in tune with the voters. The Republicans are going to have to moderate some of their views on social issues (as you have noted) and voter inclusion (as you have noted). But the big one is that the underlying message of economic Darwinism must be tempered. Tax cuts do not solve all, all Americans should be entitled to health care, immigrants must be given a path and economic opportunity must be equalized to pick on a few.
Number Two – The data sources in both cases were likely flawed as was the analysis of those sources. Republicans like to see things the way the want them to be rather than as they are. Fox, Limbaugh and many other sources pander to this desire while making a fortune. Why look at the Romney campaign’s unbelievable ORCA failure…anyone just reasonably competent in enterprise software deployment could have told them in 2 seconds it was doomed. My guess is they did and were ignored. The turn out models were not wrong it was the analysis. It goes back to Iraq or even 911..the Bush Administration had the data and saw what they wanted. Until Republicans, like many others, are able to conduct a rigorous examination of WHY these failures occur time and again they will continue.
Number Three – You both walk around with an ENORMOUS chip on your shoulders and people don’t like it. Now I freely admit that on this blog I can do that as well…it is why I, likely far to often blog here. Because in real life I can’t be this way, people don’t like it. You on the other hand have left a very public trail of acting EXACTLY the same way in real life as does the Republican Party. Comments about the 47%, illegal immigrants, rape being “God’s Will” pi$$ people off and they remember them at voting time. In short Republicans need a good dose of nice.
Now I have to go work for a while…chew on that.
RockyM
November 9th, 2012
11:24 am
Tiberius, you jump to the usual conclusion made by conservative that anyone who calls BS on conservatives is left wing. Not very bright yourself.
4 more years
November 9th, 2012
11:24 am
I have to go, but I’ll check back later. If you want to read, “I was thinking…” a few comments ago I will check back later. These are serious questions that I think every “ant” needs to ask himself.
clem
November 9th, 2012
11:26 am
4 years, most folks in usa are ants. listenting to david frum this morning he said gop beats the wellfare gong to death and most know how little is really spend there. listening to boehner now, he quotes ernst & young study which has been refuted by cbo and crs. i wish there was a true arbiter of truth, then i would agree even if the gop perspective. however, given the track record of right (aided and abetted by greedy dems) over the fiscal crisis, i choose to go with cbo and crs over e&y.
point is except for maybe about 5% of population, we are all ants with varying degrees of talent and work habit.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
11:34 am
Agreed on your first point and have already suggested what those reasonable changes should be, JDW.
Disagree on your second point. Stop relying on analysis of polling data as a flaw in getting elected – in doesn’t matter. Issues matter. You fixate way too much on polling data.
Could not care less about Point 3. I ain’t running for office.
Finally, you point about a false narrative is flawed. Each post made by the liberals on this blog prove that. You cannot take one part of a sentence and ascribe an entirety of thought to a person’s beliefs, but that is EXACTLY what you folks did with Romney. That’s also why Obama got creamed in the first debate; he thought he was going up against his construct, not the man himself.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:36 am
When you are still hanging on to the 1st debate, you are certainly sulking like a 2 yrs old child.
hahahahahahahah
clem
November 9th, 2012
11:37 am
he’s probably clinging to dynamic scoring too
Just Saying..
November 9th, 2012
11:39 am
Barry, just read your own words for the last 10 months. There’s a reason we’re smiling. And you’re not.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 9th, 2012
11:39 am
Uh, Weeping Mitt?
I don’t “hang on” to anything.
I merely point out facts which support my views.
You’d be wise to remember that.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:40 am
You will be talking about the 1st debate 20 yrs from now and even the most ardent conservatives will be looking at you like you are a fool…………… then changing the subject will quick
GET OVER IT. ROMNEY LOST.
You are spinning so much that you are getting dizzy and about to fall down.
Your excuses and rants are eating you up.
LET IT GO.
Weeping Mitt
November 9th, 2012
11:47 am
If this election is eating you up anywhere close to the level as your loneliness does, you might want to seek professional help.
I’m serious, little guy. Keep it together.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
12:53 pm
Well, what have you won, JS?
Did you get a raise at work? Some new freebie from the government? A fancier car? Anything?
The real winners will keep on winning, because they do things that make them what they are. They’ll always be winners. The real losers will keep on losing, because they do loser things. They might get a new EBT to get their now-substandard health care, but they won’t be moving in next door to the winners.
If this sounds like “screw you, I’ve got mine”, that’s exactly what it is. The government might …might…get a tiny bit bigger slice of it, but it won’t mean anything more than maybe a slightly nicer Obamaphone for the receptacle rabble.
Your big win on Tuesday just means a quicker descent into hell “for the children”.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 9th, 2012
1:01 pm
More winners! One in five Americans on Medicaid!
The Final Solution
November 9th, 2012
2:08 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/09/peter-morrison-texas-divorce_n_2100165.html
With friends such as these, does the GOP need enemies?
Change the GOP? Can a leopard change its spots?
Linda
November 9th, 2012
2:41 pm
Progressive@11:08 PM, It’s unfortunate you can’t communicate without personal insults toward me. You also misquoted what I said. FOX quoted the same polls as every other news station & misled no one. FOX has just as many liberals contributors as conservative contributors. They also have at least one liberal anchor, that is, an anchor with his own show. I also said conservatives tend to fact-check. There are NO FOX zombies lapping up every word.
The Bush tax cuts were passed in ‘01 & ‘03 & the annual unemployment rate dropped from 5.8% in ‘02 & 6% in ‘03 to 5.5% in ‘04, 5.1% in ‘05, 4.6% in ‘06 & 4.6% in ‘07.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/prev_yrs.htm
Note: this is per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, not FOX News.
I know of no correlation between high tax rates & low unemployment rates. That makes no common sense. The more disposable income the govt. takes away from job creators, the less capital they have to invest into their businesses, i.e. to pay employees.
If Romney had won, it would have taken different amts. of time for his policies to take effect. It took about 2 yrs. for the unemployment rates to drop after the Bush tax cuts went into effect. Speculation would have caused gas prices to drop fairly quickly after his energy prices went into effect, long before any significant increase was added to supply.
The Final Solution
November 9th, 2012
2:43 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/09/mitt-romney-campaign-cancels-credit-cards-staffers-aids-election-night_n_2099916.html
Wonderful, isn’t it?
And typical?
Characteristic of Great Republican Principles?
Dear people signing secessionist petitions . . . | Kyle Wingfield
November 12th, 2012
3:25 pm
[...] do that, Republicans have to make some necessary but hardly revolutionary changes. But it does not help them do that when there are people signing petitions that confirm the worst [...]