Election Day Video: Jay Bookman and I discuss who wins and what’s next
With the election results almost upon us, Jay Bookman, Aaron Gould Sheinin and I decided it was time for another chat using Google+ Hangout. Check it out:
Depending on how quickly the results come in tonight, we’ll do another of these either tonight or tomorrow morning.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:32 pm
One: Nate Silver isn’t the be-all and end-all of prognosticators.
Two: A moron could have predicted the Obama electoral win last time. Nothing special there.
Three: There is no indication he is considering anything other than polling data (and not using early voting totals), which I believe in the end will be invalidated for this election
You can bank on that if you want. Sounds like a lot of spinning.
Either way i rather be the one ahead in all the polls instead of being behind and claiming they aren’t valid.
Again all the polls might be wrong.
But I highly doubt it.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
4:33 pm
Tiberius
Not sure about Silver. Haven’t read any of his material.
Can it be worse than Dick “McCain will walk away with this election” Morris?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:34 pm
And once again, (not surprisingly), AmVet posts . . .
. . . nothing of substance.
Jeffrey
November 6th, 2012
4:35 pm
Kyle, you’re a class act. I hope you stay at the ajc for a long time.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:36 pm
“Can it be worse than Dick “McCain will walk away with this election” Morris?”
You made my point, Black Label.
Dick Morris is the biggest blowhard since AmVet.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:36 pm
Not sure about Silver. Haven’t read any of his material.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Im sure he got 49 of 50 states right last time.
And no they weren’t all Obama blowouts. He predicted the tight ones correctly too.
Thats not a bad record.
Dick Morris is just a tool of Fox News they can wheel out at this point.
Rush
November 6th, 2012
4:37 pm
When you are a person of no substance then it is tough to post anything of substance….but don’t question Jam as he/she will be the first to tell you of what a great American he/she is and what he/she has done for the nation.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:38 pm
I knew Romney was beat when he made a last ditch effort in Pennsylvania.
That reeked of desperation.
They are hoping for a Hail Mary miracle because at this point that’s what they need.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
4:38 pm
Cheesy Grits
I do not follow either of them. Merely saying that predictions are made all the time and they are not always correct. That comes from the left, right and “unbiased” sources.
Silver could be right. Morris was incorrect last time, however he might be right tonight.
We shall see.
cc
November 6th, 2012
4:40 pm
I thought a word on exit polls was in order:
THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT
All exit polls predict Kerry will be victor
Polls not considered highly reliable, though Republicans typically vote earlier in day
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:42 pm
I do not follow either of them. Merely saying that predictions are made all the time and they are not always correct. That comes from the left, right and “unbiased” sources.
Silver could be right. Morris was incorrect last time, however he might be right tonight.
Your right they are not always correct. But they usually are.
Just like the weatherman. Does he get it right every time. No.
But most times he does.
Another thing. Silver is a math wiz basing his projections and cold hard data.
Again he got 49 of 50 right last time. How did Dick Morris projection work out ?
Morris is just pulling his out of his backside.
Big Big Big difference.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
4:42 pm
cc
Not real keen on exit polling. All major polls right before the election in 04 indicated that Kerry was behind and that was the outcome.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:45 pm
So in your world, Cheesy, there is no consideration for early and absentee voting totals – just polling, right?
Polling that consistently uses a 2008 or better model for Democrat turnout when no such enthusiasm exists IN THE POLLS THEMSELVES.
But when early and absentee votes ARE calculated which shows a complete wipeout of Obama’s margin of victory in Ohio in 2008 (before the first person goes to the polls today – when Republicans generally wait to vote), you don’t consider that because it doesn’t fit your desires?
md
November 6th, 2012
4:46 pm
“It’s most likely that substance will win out because the money for the stuff is gone.”
Sadly, there is a percentage in this country that will always be voting for the stuff……all we can hope for is it never reaches a permanent 51% such as it did in Greece……and we see how that worked out.
Or, one can look at CA if they want the US version……tick, tick, tick before the too big to fail designation is deployed to bail them out of their billion dollar boondoggle……..
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
4:47 pm
Cheesy
Save your combativeness for Tiberius and your usual pillow fights.
I noted that Silver could be right and I did not follow him.
He might be the best think since the internet, but I can’t speak to it either way nor do I really care.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:47 pm
“Your right they are not always correct. But they usually are.”
A check of polling accuracy would say this statement is totally wrong.
In fact, only two polling firms got the final numbers nearly correct in 2008.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:50 pm
Or, one can look at CA if they want the US version……tick, tick, tick before the too big to fail designation is deployed to bail them out of their billion dollar boondoggle……..
A lie.
They and states like New York and New Jersey subsidize the welfare Southern states like Alabama Georgia and Mississippi etc.
They send far more money in to the government than they get back and the poorer states like Georgia take that money.
They are one of the worlds largest economies and would run circles around Georgia economically.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:51 pm
A check of polling accuracy would say this statement is totally wrong.
In fact, only two polling firms got the final numbers nearly correct in 2008.
Not even remotely true.
Nate Silver got 49 of 50 states correct.
How do you spin or explain that ? LOL
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:52 pm
Save your combativeness for Tiberius and your usual pillow fights.
I noted that Silver could be right and I did not follow him.
He might be the best think since the internet, but I can’t speak to it either way nor do I really care.
Not being combative.
Just trying to enlighten.
cc
November 6th, 2012
4:53 pm
Black Label:
I did read where the media has agreed to lay off the exit poll stuff to a pre-agreed time. That is a good thing! I’d actually prefer not to hear/see anything about exit polling. Exit polling is unreliable and, in the long term, means absolutely nothing.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:54 pm
Cheesy, I wasn’t talking about Nate Silver (nor were YOU at the time).
You mentioned polling as being “usually correct”, NOT Nate Silver.
Pay attention. Your slobbering over Silver is getting messy.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:55 pm
Either way enjoy the results coming in tonight.
A piece of advice too.
If you want to win in 2016 you better come up with somebody better than Cheesy Grits.
Obama was there for the taking with
A. Him being black
B. The economy he inherited not doing well.
But Cheesy Grits was such an awful awful candidate.
Cheers for that I guess.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
4:55 pm
Considering California is running billions of dollars in debt each year, I’ll take Georgia any day.
md
November 6th, 2012
4:56 pm
CA is 25 billion in the hole Cheesy, and their gov’t pension funds aren’t even fully funded……..that bit about carrying red states is so bogus, it’s their IDEOLOGY that is getting them in trouble.
Just like it did in greece……or spain……or france…….pick one.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:57 pm
You mentioned polling as being “usually correct”, NOT Nate Silver.
The polls usually are correct and Nate Silver has proven to be highly reliable as well.
I know reading comprehension is tough with Georgia schools and this being a red state and all.
“FOUR MORE YEARS !!!!!!”
See ya.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
4:58 pm
cc
I think that is a good thing. If people think polling leading up to the election isn’t always reliable, how can on the spot polling with little analysis be that great? I am sure that the major pollsters have certain techniques and at times are close and even on the money, but I would prefer not to know until they have ample data to call the state.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
4:59 pm
that bit about carrying red states is so bogus,
Oh no its not.
Georgia gets far more federal money back than it ever sends to Washington.
Blue states like New Jersey and New York send in far more and get less back than red states.
They have been subsidizing the welfare South for years.
I dont expect you to get that though so I wont even try.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
5:01 pm
Considering California is running billions of dollars in debt each year, I’ll take Georgia any day.
If the Fed cutoff the money to Georgia for all the trailer park welfare folks things would get ugly quick.
Again Georgia takes in far more than it ever produces in taxes for the Government.
Gov Christie said so himself when talking about New Jersey getting aid and how little they actually get in Fed money compared to other states.
This is like arguing with a wall though.
Either way enjoy the results tonight.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
5:02 pm
“The polls usually are correct”
A check of polling accuracy would show this statement to be wholly without merit.
“and Nate Silver has proven to be highly reliable as well.”
For one stinkin’ election.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 6th, 2012
5:06 pm
If obozo’s lost ana marie cox -
Why I’m not freaking out about the idea of a Mitt Romney presidency
I’m not complacent: bad things would happen. But I also have faith that, despite partisan politics, America arcs toward progress
ana marie cox?
buh bye obozo!
md
November 6th, 2012
5:08 pm
As I said cheesy the last time you posted that bs, check out the numbers on military spending in red states AND medicare spending……2 of the biggest expenses in those “red” states.
And guess where half the population of old people that use that medicare come from??
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 6th, 2012
5:11 pm
UPDATE: Turnout likely higher than in 2008, Virginia state elections official says
Long Lines, Few Problems in OH
Voters Endure Long Lines in MI
Take your country back, Repugs!
Finn mcCool
November 6th, 2012
5:19 pm
Well, I walked right up and voted.
8 times!
Finn mcCool
November 6th, 2012
5:20 pm
Old joke:
When I die I want to be buried in Chicago – so I can stay politically active.
Dixie
November 6th, 2012
5:23 pm
One of them will win then the SCOTUS will choose the president. It’s our new electorial process.
cc
November 6th, 2012
5:30 pm
“When I die I want to be buried in Chicago – so I can stay politically active.”
You can vote.
Hopefully, that will end your posting, though . . .
md
November 6th, 2012
5:31 pm
For a decent breakdown of federal spending per state if one cares to wade into it vs those that just read the talking points about the na na boo boo battle of the haves vs have nots……….
http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/cffr-10.pdf
cc
November 6th, 2012
5:31 pm
“Old joke”
Yes . . . you are . . .
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
5:38 pm
What comforts me is Romney leads in independents according to most all polls, some by double digits. 2008, Obama romped with the independents. Before the election, everyone, including the famous HI HO Silver, Morris, Rove, Trippi, and Tonto said, whoever wins the independents will win, because the country is so equally divided.
Now that Romney is ahead with the independents, surprise, the Obama Influenced media doesn’t talk much about independents.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
5:42 pm
cc, do you have any humor to your personality? Or are you just an old angry white guy through and through?
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
5:43 pm
Cheer up, tibby!
Things are likely going to go very bad for you tonight, but hopefully you’re not gonna stroke out on us.
We need you to continue playing the target in the blog’s whack-a-troll game for the next four years!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 6th, 2012
5:43 pm
Official Tarrance prediction on the popular vote.
Based on our analysis of the data, it is our prediction that the final popular vote results will be Romney=50.3%, Obama=48.8%, and Other candidates=0.9%
Sounds a little low for Romney, should be more like 52%
But we’ll take it.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
5:44 pm
some humor:
6 Excuses Right-Wingers Are Teeing Up In Case Obama Beats Romney
It’s never the fault of conservatism!
http://www.alternet.org/6-excuses-right-wingers-are-teeing-case-obama-beats-romney
cc
November 6th, 2012
5:44 pm
“One of them will win then the SCOTUS will choose the president. It’s our new electorial process:
Unfortunately, I fear you are correct. There are reportedly thousands of lawyers involved at this point. I’ve never known a lawyer fearful of filing a lawsuit when there is money to be made.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
5:45 pm
They are one of the worlds largest economies and would run circles around Georgia economically.
Yep, but Georgia balances its budget every year. I used to ask my father why everyone coming home from up north at Christmas, had better cars than we did, his response was they are rented, ours we paid cash for.
CA and NY would never have gotten into all the mess they are in, if they weren’t allowed to borrow money for one foolish thing and the other. Now the US taxpayers will eventually have to pay off their debts.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
5:46 pm
Ya’ll going to see “Lincoln” or is it just too much liberal hoohaw?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
5:48 pm
Tiberius’ other handle is “Cartman”
MOOOOOMMMM, cheesy puffs!
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
5:53 pm
…had better cars than we did, his response was they are rented.
Please.
The jobs and wages up north, historically have been better than the jobs and wages paid in Dixie.
Which still trails the rest of the nation…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
5:53 pm
the people on Fox News are looking constipated. I think it might be that big Mormon, bully sammich they swallowed hook line and sinker.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
5:54 pm
Cheesy, have you ever checked the population of NY, CA, and NJ and compare it to GA. Obviously with more people, you pay more taxes into the Fed and the salary for all those Hedge Fund, Stock Market Analyst, and Movie Stars are quintuple what people in GA make, thus more Fed taxes. If the Mistake happens again, the higher taxes on income on the 1%, will make things even more lopsided.
What are you complaining about, a little redistribution, turn in your socialist card.