Presidential prediction: The candidate who defies history and wins will be . . .
History and the numbers say Barack Obama will be re-elected tomorrow. History and the intangibles suggest Mitt Romney will unseat him. Which will prevail?
Let’s look at each.
The numbers have moved solidly in Obama’s favor. He caught Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls on Halloween after trailing for the better part of the previous three weeks. More importantly, he holds leads — usually narrow leads, but leads nonetheless — in enough swing states to push him past the threshold of 270 electoral votes (EVs).
There’s been much parsing of the polls this year, much of it focused on the partisan-ID breakdowns that various pollsters were using. A poll of “likely voters” inherently tells us something about who the pollster believes will actually bother to vote, and that’s as much art as it is science. Many pollsters have been forecasting an electorate similar to that of 2008, a wave election that saw Obama rack up 365 EVs and the Democrats claim a huge majority in the House and, eventually if briefly, a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate.
It strikes me as very unlikely that the electorate will tip so heavily in favor of self-identifying Democrats again. That said, the pollsters would have to be very wrong for Romney to win enough states to capture the presidency. If you look at the RCP average for the swing states, he has a lead in states with a total of 235 EVs. For him to surpass 270, the polls would have to have been wrong by more than 2.8 percentage points on average — bumping his total to 285 EVs.
One of the last states that would flip to him in that scenario would be Ohio. That’s ominous because no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
On the other hand, Obama arguably has an even tougher historical precedent to overcome. Only two presidents have won re-election with a smaller number of EVs. The first was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, who had captured an excessive number of states in 1912 because William Howard Taft and Teddy Roosevelt split so many votes on the right. That won’t be the case in this year’s election. In the event, Wilson did increase his share of the popular vote, from 41.8 percent in 1912 to 49.2 percent in 1916.
The second was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won a larger margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College in his first re-election (1936) but tapered off in his third and fourth presidential victories (1940 and 1944) — situations that aren’t really analogous to Obama’s seeking a second term.
Barring a huge turn of events, Obama is not going to repeat his 2008 performance in terms of EVs or the popular vote (he won 52.7 percent of the latter four years ago). So his re-election would be fairly historic.
Why do presidents almost never win re-election with smaller majorities? Maybe it’s a matter of a small sample size; only 15 men have ever been elected to two or more consecutive terms as president. Or maybe voters tend to decide the incumbent either deserves re-election or doesn’t, and move either decisively in his direction or away from it.
If it’s the latter, almost every other measure of this contest favors Romney. Enthusiasm has been higher among Republicans almost uniformly. Obama breaks even in approval ratings — at best — and has lost his edge in favorability. Self-described independent voters have favored Romney — often by double-digit margins — in most polls, regardless of the top-line leader.
The states that moved into the “tossup” category during the past month are states the Democrats once considered comfortably in Obama’s column: The action toward the end of the campaign, in terms of spending and appearances by the candidates and their surrogates, has been in traditionally blue states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Early and absentee voting totals in most swing states, particularly in the specific areas of those swing states he’s counting on the most, point to a shift away from Obama compared to his totals in 2008. Seven of the 10 swing states according to RCP have elected GOP governors since 2008, and an eighth (North Carolina) is expected to do so Tuesday.
In short, the numbers are what they are — but anyone looking for reasons not to believe the poll numbers can find plenty of them.
My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.
My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.
My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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487 comments Add your comment
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
11:28 am
Dusty, trying to get everyone to stop jabbing while putting in multiple jabs of her own. Well played.
Jack
November 6th, 2012
11:30 am
The Pennsylvania voters probably remember that were called “bitter people who cling to guns and religion.”
Partisay
November 6th, 2012
11:32 am
Folks,
Why don’t you take the day off and just watch the results coming in? I can’t see how this “dueling” helps the country at all. Trying to cut each others throats in politics is bound to make conflict lfor the governmen/citizens of our country.
______________________________________________________________________________
Then in the next paragraph, she critisizes democrats for attacking Bush while “he did everything in his power to advance our country?” Then of course she adds, “It is a lasting disgrace still offered by weak minds.”
Then of course she stays on here and “duals” with other posters. Hypocritical? I think so….
md
November 6th, 2012
11:33 am
“He signed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act, which was designed to protect consumers from unfair and deceptive credit card practices”
But what did it actually accomplish? What it did was socialize the losses of the deadbeats as the banks could no longer charge them higher rates and fees. All they could do was raise everyone else’s rates……which they did across the board. So once again, the responsible pay for the irresponsible………..
gary
November 6th, 2012
11:34 am
That is an idiotic statement. He will win because the country is tired of seeing our debt, unemployment, entitlements grow along with government regulations increasing and holding back businesses.
Save America and vote Republican.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
11:35 am
The Pennsylvania voters probably remember that were called “bitter people who cling to guns and religion.”
Why would it matter? Anybody offended by that ( because there is a hint of truth to it ) is a redneck who is going to vote for Romney anyway.
Darwin
November 6th, 2012
11:35 am
Before I took a multiple choice quiz on where Romney stood on tthe issues, the teacher told us there was no wrong answer.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
11:37 am
Partisay
Typical Dusty. She thinks she can come on and throw jabs without any coming back.When they come back she feigns outrage.
Hypocrtical? Yes
Ironic? Yes
Simple minded? Yes
Very funny? You betcha
iggy
November 6th, 2012
11:40 am
“So once again, the responsible pay for the irresponsible”
I paid mine off immediately. IF I use them, and thats a big IF, I pay the balance. The Credit Card Companies can KMA as can Obama and his socialists measures.
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
11:44 am
There goes cheesy grits with his usual racist comments including redneck. Well at least we know where he stands and he’s not trying to hide his racism.
ragnar danneskjold
November 6th, 2012
11:45 am
Has anyone ever seen a thoughtful or incisive comment by a leftist on this blog? Don’t think it exists. Just epithets.
Dusty
November 6th, 2012
11:47 am
Wow, Cheesy Grits and other disseminated voices,
I bet you eat fried chitlin’s every morning for breakfast. Why all the blurbs against Southerners? Extra pay for that?
For you other disseminators of the dismal, take a peaceful hike and contemplate. Romney is good! Romney is good! (It will clear your mind and make you smart!)
Peadawg
November 6th, 2012
11:48 am
gary
November 6th, 2012
11:34 am
Unemployment has been going down.
“holding back businesses” – Businesses have had record profits. Do you want Obama to become a dictator and tell them they have to hire?
Dusty
November 6th, 2012
11:52 am
Hi Ragnar,
I am always glad to see your posts. Intelligent!!
What’s the news from your Navy son and the friend of old who went to California for a school job some years back? Just wondering…..
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
11:53 am
Insightful comments? You’re asking quite a lot from the liberals on here Ragnar. Hyperbole and heated emotional rhetoric. Its how they roll.
md
November 6th, 2012
11:57 am
“I paid mine off immediately. IF I use them, and thats a big IF, I pay the balance. The Credit Card Companies can KMA as can Obama and his socialists measures.”
I did too, but I did keep a balance on one of them only because they were willing to play the game. I told my banks they had 2 choices (there’s that word again), lower my rate or not lower it and I’d pay off the balance. Only one was willing to play, they got my business. Of course the others keep sending me these better rates after the fact………screw them, they made their choice.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 6th, 2012
11:58 am
Insightful comments and liberals don’t really go together.
And hiya Thulsa!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 6th, 2012
12:00 pm
I no longer do credit. If I don’t have the money I don’t buy it.
Haven’t come up against an obstacle to that just yet.
cc
November 6th, 2012
12:01 pm
“Hyperbole and heated emotional rhetoric. Its how they roll.”
As surely as the sun rises in the east . . .
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:03 pm
I told my banks they had 2 choices (there’s that word again), lower my rate or not lower it and I’d pay off the balance.
You’re paying the banks to thank them for not raising your rates? LOL Please tell us you aren’t a financial consultant or a personal money manager!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:05 pm
today is either the day Nate Silver gets his kudos or he goes back to playing cards for a living.
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:05 pm
No ones trying to keep people from voting. Cheating on the count – maybe. But anyone that is legal to vote will vote if they wish. Unfortunately for Obama many pushing to legalize weed are to doped up to go vote and the rest of them are in prison on felonies and can’t vote. Expect Dems to continue to push to have felons legal to vote.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 6th, 2012
12:06 pm
Once again Finn shows us his lack of basic English language skills. . .
md
November 6th, 2012
12:08 pm
Oh I do credit, lots of credit purchases, just about everything I buy is with the card……but paid in full every month (except the one with a small balance). Those skymiles sure come in handy with free flights for the family. If I’m going to spend money on purchases, may as well get a few freebies out of it…………..
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:09 pm
Still problems in south Florida with pollsters trying to intimidate voter I.D. checkers. Incidents have been reported.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 6th, 2012
12:09 pm
Just lost power at the house. It had better be back on in time to watch returns come in!
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:12 pm
Part of those that voted Obama last time are switching because Obama didn’t keep his promise to pay their electric and grocery bills. But he did get them a free cell phone.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 6th, 2012
12:12 pm
Just wondering, but wouldn’t the candidate who defies history be the first Mormon president?
Just sayin ‘!
md
November 6th, 2012
12:13 pm
“You’re paying the banks to thank them for not raising your rates?”
I’m paying the bank because of the lower rates because I preferred to have a stronger cash position, vs paying it off and depleting my cash. It’s a strategic decision, not necessarily the smarter move…….times are tough, cash on hand is a good thing.
GaDem
November 6th, 2012
12:19 pm
Kyle, I’ve long thought that you were an idiot, but this column proves it beyond a doubt. Obama is going to win over 300 Electoral College votes, and you rednecks better get use to that idea.
4 MORE YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:20 pm
Four more years of Nanny State Pelosi and Hairy Weed’s far left partisan politics is like electing a street sweeper to do brain surgery. They are a failure on the economy but a success at porking up their supporters with our tax dollars and grid lock will continue.
southpaw
November 6th, 2012
12:22 pm
We don’t need no stinkin voter ID laws!! Nobody’s been convicted yet!
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/11/06/democrat-double-voter-caught-in-north-carolina/
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
12:26 pm
Obama is going to win over 300 Electoral College votes
————
I refuse to believe the citizenry is that ignorant and gullible.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:27 pm
Can we discuss the Woodstock gated community that is shutting it’s gates at 6pm cause the residents are skeered?
Why isn’t that getting any play in the AJC?
iggy
November 6th, 2012
12:27 pm
Once again the The New Black Panthers, of Ohio, are enforcing voter intimidations laws.
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:27 pm
GaDem – my my my – racist type hate against “red necks” from the smug, arrogant left. Those “rednecks” in Idaho are projected to vote for Obama. . You are not a GaDem – you are a Dem that has moved to Georgia. If you don’t like”red necks” you are free to leave and don’t let the screen door hit you in your fat rear end on the way out!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
12:30 pm
Why isn’t that getting any play in the AJC?
———
Probably because it isn’t happening.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
12:33 pm
This country is not going back to the far right politics of the Republicans.
Assuming the Republicans dont steal this one like they did in 2000.
Its 4 more years of Obama and then 8 years for Hillary.
Old Timer
November 6th, 2012
12:33 pm
If Obama wins it will becasue of all the votes he won by promises and entitlement, not what he has done for the country. Think debt, executive orders, government grid lock, no budget in three years, Obama Care and Bengazi–his statement that Al Qaeda is on the decline to uninformed. I predict this will be a Dewey-Truman election with the parties switched. Obama has done everything he could to buy it, even auditioning for TV shows.
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:34 pm
Obama has one plan for our economy and that is to steer every tax dollar he can to his supporters and himself. According to Forbes Obama was not a millionaire while in the private sector but he has since fattened his bank account the last four years and is now a member of the hated 1%.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
12:35 pm
Probably because it isn’t happening. ,/i>
Wrong again. You should be used to that by know though.
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/20010281/fearing-unrest-woodstock-community-locking-gates-after-election
Kyle Wingfield
November 6th, 2012
12:35 pm
All right, everyone, stand by for another Google Hangout video with Jay and me. Sometime between now and 1 p.m. …
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
12:37 pm
Obama has one plan for our economy and that is to steer every tax dollar he can to his supporters and himself. According to Forbes Obama was not a millionaire while in the private sector but he has since fattened his bank account the last four years and is now a member of the hated 1%.
All lies.
Obama made all his money from a best selling book.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2012/05/16/obamas-worth-nearly-6-million-see-why-hes-down-since-last-year/
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
12:39 pm
Haven’t read all the posts, but have you guys noticed the Dems/Black Panthers are back to their dirty tricks in Philly. They kicked out the GOP poll watchers in a bunch of precincts. Judge ordered them back in, they ignored the judge and would not allow them. Now the Sheriff is having to enforce the Judges ruling.
Tonight when Barry loses, the Finn, HEB, and the Obamabots will be crying about the GOP disenfranchising their voters, hah!
They BOTH suck
November 6th, 2012
12:39 pm
Barry
Are you sure about that?
http://www.peachpundit.com/2012/11/05/woodstock-community-closes-gates-to-protect-from-civil-unrest-teens-on-lawn/
Thought so
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:40 pm
So, if Obama wins – either by a squeeker or a landslide, can we expect the Cons to act any differently than they have the past 4 years?
But of course, should Romney win, they will expect the liberals to accept defeat and begin working with the new guy in earnest.
Right?
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:41 pm
Dead brain zombies vote Obama……. if reelected insist on random drug testing for the CROAKAINE Prez.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:44 pm
Where is the reporting on the black panthers, and please nothing from Heritage Foundation, LOL.
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:45 pm
Hairy Weed has already stated that the Dems would not cooperate or compromise with a Repub Prez………. don’t expect bipartisanship from either side any time soon. Grid lock continues. TERM LIMITS for CONGRESS.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
12:46 pm
No, Finn, we expect whoever wins to act like Americans, i.e. supporting free market capitalism, free people, personal responsibility, and American values. Naturally, if Obozo wins, real Americans expect his liberal fascist agenda to be obstructed.