Presidential prediction: The candidate who defies history and wins will be . . .
History and the numbers say Barack Obama will be re-elected tomorrow. History and the intangibles suggest Mitt Romney will unseat him. Which will prevail?
Let’s look at each.
The numbers have moved solidly in Obama’s favor. He caught Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls on Halloween after trailing for the better part of the previous three weeks. More importantly, he holds leads — usually narrow leads, but leads nonetheless — in enough swing states to push him past the threshold of 270 electoral votes (EVs).
There’s been much parsing of the polls this year, much of it focused on the partisan-ID breakdowns that various pollsters were using. A poll of “likely voters” inherently tells us something about who the pollster believes will actually bother to vote, and that’s as much art as it is science. Many pollsters have been forecasting an electorate similar to that of 2008, a wave election that saw Obama rack up 365 EVs and the Democrats claim a huge majority in the House and, eventually if briefly, a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate.
It strikes me as very unlikely that the electorate will tip so heavily in favor of self-identifying Democrats again. That said, the pollsters would have to be very wrong for Romney to win enough states to capture the presidency. If you look at the RCP average for the swing states, he has a lead in states with a total of 235 EVs. For him to surpass 270, the polls would have to have been wrong by more than 2.8 percentage points on average — bumping his total to 285 EVs.
One of the last states that would flip to him in that scenario would be Ohio. That’s ominous because no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
On the other hand, Obama arguably has an even tougher historical precedent to overcome. Only two presidents have won re-election with a smaller number of EVs. The first was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, who had captured an excessive number of states in 1912 because William Howard Taft and Teddy Roosevelt split so many votes on the right. That won’t be the case in this year’s election. In the event, Wilson did increase his share of the popular vote, from 41.8 percent in 1912 to 49.2 percent in 1916.
The second was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won a larger margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College in his first re-election (1936) but tapered off in his third and fourth presidential victories (1940 and 1944) — situations that aren’t really analogous to Obama’s seeking a second term.
Barring a huge turn of events, Obama is not going to repeat his 2008 performance in terms of EVs or the popular vote (he won 52.7 percent of the latter four years ago). So his re-election would be fairly historic.
Why do presidents almost never win re-election with smaller majorities? Maybe it’s a matter of a small sample size; only 15 men have ever been elected to two or more consecutive terms as president. Or maybe voters tend to decide the incumbent either deserves re-election or doesn’t, and move either decisively in his direction or away from it.
If it’s the latter, almost every other measure of this contest favors Romney. Enthusiasm has been higher among Republicans almost uniformly. Obama breaks even in approval ratings — at best — and has lost his edge in favorability. Self-described independent voters have favored Romney — often by double-digit margins — in most polls, regardless of the top-line leader.
The states that moved into the “tossup” category during the past month are states the Democrats once considered comfortably in Obama’s column: The action toward the end of the campaign, in terms of spending and appearances by the candidates and their surrogates, has been in traditionally blue states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Early and absentee voting totals in most swing states, particularly in the specific areas of those swing states he’s counting on the most, point to a shift away from Obama compared to his totals in 2008. Seven of the 10 swing states according to RCP have elected GOP governors since 2008, and an eighth (North Carolina) is expected to do so Tuesday.
In short, the numbers are what they are — but anyone looking for reasons not to believe the poll numbers can find plenty of them.
My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.
My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.
My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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487 comments Add your comment
Rightwing Troll
November 6th, 2012
6:26 am
45%-55% of the EC… who actually prevails? I dunno. Good luck to you all, and remember, whether it be President-elect Mittens or Oblama tomorrow he’s OUR president.
And quite honestly, not much will change, no matter how deeply you’ve bought into all the hyperbole.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
6:45 am
Rightwing Troll: Speaking of pencil and paper, did anybody ever manage to reconcile all of Mittens numbers and how he could actually pull it off?
———-
We’ve got the actual numbers from the last four years–or do you put more faith in prognostications than in reality?
$6 trillion in new debt, record numbers in poverty, and unemployment higher today than four years ago.
That’s the reality of Obozo.
cc
November 6th, 2012
7:01 am
LBB:
Add to your numbers the four Americans killed in Benghazi who were refused assistance, and Brian Terry, the U. S. Border Patrol officer killed by one of the guns from the “Fast and Furious” debacle.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
7:36 am
Hey Cons, don’t forget to vote on Wednesday!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
7:38 am
Vegas now has moved Romney from a 3-1 underdog toward a 4-1 underdog.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
mwuahahahahahahaha
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
7:45 am
Isn’t it nice that we still get to vote on who becomes President, rather than people who make book.
Henne
November 6th, 2012
7:46 am
Dewey didn’t defeat Truman and Romney won’t beat Obama.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
7:56 am
Barack’s post might have some value if he (or she) would stop calling people names and provide something resembling depth.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
7:59 am
So, America. Do we go with the employee with the mediocre job record but has proven he can handle any situation – both in house and out of house? Or do we can him and go with the guy with the shiny resume that is long on sparkle but shallow in details?
You decide. Sparkle or substance?
tiredofIT
November 6th, 2012
8:04 am
Watching one of Romney’s campaign speeches yesterday, I will say he displayed the passion of a 2 by 4, not a man that wants to be president. Inside, he knows it over.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:19 am
“Do we go with the employee with the mediocre job record but has proven he can handle any situation – both in house and out of house?”
Handle any situation?
Really?
Did he “handle” the debt and deficit? No.
Did he “handle” Benghazi? No.
Did he “handle” bi-partisanship? No.
Did he “handle” creating any net jobs? No.
Did he ‘handle” openness and transparency? No.
Really, Finn?
And Romney shallow on details, huh? Governor of Massachusetts, didn’t raise taxes, balanced his budget, lowered unemployment to to what is considered to be full employment levels, maintained top notch public schools, created jobs without government help, saved the Salt lake City Olympics. Romney’s resume is something Obama could only dream of, even after 4 years as President.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:21 am
tiredofIT, I suspect you’ve never watched a Romney speech in it’s entirety in your lifetime.
And if you put both men side by side yesterday, you’d see that it was Obama who was tired and listless.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
8:23 am
Governor of Massachusetts,
With 800+ vetoes. Many of those the state legislature just overruled him.
tiredofIT
November 6th, 2012
8:28 am
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:21 am
tiredofIT, I suspect you’ve never watched a Romney speech in it’s entirety in your lifetime.
And if you put both men side by side yesterday, you’d see that it was Obama who was tired and listless.
++
Romney looked like he was about to cry yesterday.
Darwin
November 6th, 2012
8:40 am
What I have learned this time around is that the positions that the politicians take don’t mean anything. Romney’s position on everything shifts with the wind. The people voting for him don’t have a clue what he stands for. The only thing they care about is that “Democrats care about everybody.” And half the population hates that.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:42 am
“With 800+ vetoes. Many of those the state legislature just overruled him.”
And none of that changes his accomplishments, Finn. He still balanced the budget. He still didn’t raise taxes. He still kept his schools #1.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:43 am
“Romney looked like he was about to cry yesterday.”
One word, tiredofIT:
Bull.
H.E. Pennypacker
November 6th, 2012
8:45 am
Kyle,
The next time you get a similar feeling in your gut, I would suggest a touch of bicarbonate of soda, which should clear it up and allow you to get back to thinking with your head.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:45 am
“Romney’s position on everything shifts with the wind.”
In reality, it doesn’t very much. All you’re doing is buying into the DNC and Obama talking points using parsed and out of context comments.
“The people voting for him don’t have a clue what he stands for.”
I know EXACTLY what he stands for, so in this case, you are wrong, Darwin.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
8:46 am
Tib, give me your address and I’ll have a case of Kleenex delivered tonight. Or did you stock up the bomb shelter this weekend?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
8:47 am
I know EXACTLY what he stands for…
Ok, Tib, lay it out for us.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:52 am
“Ok, Tib, lay it out for us.”
Pick any issue, Finn (if you even know what the issues are in this campaign).
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
8:55 am
abortion
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:55 am
Oh, and no Kleenex will be needed no matter which way this goes. I’ll be happy if Romney wins, but having a GOP Congress in place will keep Obama from destroying too much more of this nation. My biggest disappointment if Obama wins will be upcoming Supreme Court justices. In that instance, I hope the GOP Senate doesn’t fold on his next picks as they did with his last 2.
And I can’t wait for the Congressional hearings on Benghazi and Fast and Furious once this election is done.
JDW
November 6th, 2012
8:56 am
Well the end is nigh! Barring an upset of epic proportions tomorrow will dawn with the President’s re-election with an EV count of probably around 303, the Senate in Democratic hands and some small gains in the House. Hopefully The President can rise above mediocrity in this cycle and allow taxes to revert to the Clinton era levels, hold the line on the Sequester and drive a budget bargain with the obstante Republican minority that includes revenue enhancement and spending restraint. It would be nice if we could get immigration reform passed and the health care law tweaked to counter the knucklehead Republicans that have not taken the Medicare deal.
On the Republican side, there had best be some serious soul searching because if you couldn’t make gains in this cycle when will this message EVER work?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
8:59 am
OK, abortion.
Romney personally believes that abortion is wrong.
From a governmental side, he would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned and have the states decide how they would like to approach this. He doesn’t want the Federal government to fund abortion activities. Finally, he believes that abortion should be illegal, except in the case of rape, incest, or the life of the mother.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:01 am
Romney on abortion:
1994
“I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have since the time that my Mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a U.S. Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years we should sustain and support it”
United States Senatorial debate, October 1994.[2]
2012
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pledged to be “a pro-life president,” a day after an interview in which he said he doesn’t intend to pursue anti- abortion legislation if elected.
“I’ve said time and again, I’m a pro-life candidate, I’ll be a pro-life president,”
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:03 am
Even if you forget about the 1994 comments, what about the flip in October? Why?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:04 am
Finn, you can parse and pull comments out of your butt all day long, but you cannot take a single statement and make an entire position out of it.
It requires intelligence and investigative skills you do not possess.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:05 am
Romney losing his temper:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/trending/2012/11/05/romney_mormon_video_radio_show_host_jan_mickelson_interviews_testy_mitt.html
mike
November 6th, 2012
9:12 am
If you’re one of the ones who think President Barack Obama has not accomplished anything during his presidency, I offer this list:
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/09/01/a-long-list-of-president-obamas-accomplishments-with-citations/
Notice that there is a link included with each of his accomplishments.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:13 am
Ooooh, Romney gets testy about his faith . . .
Given that his faith is his PRIVATE life, I’d get testy if people asked me about mine on the campaign trail as well.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:15 am
If you think that the above list of alleged Obama “accomplishments” is contrived, you’ve at least done your homework.
If you can cut and paste such a contrived list, you haven’t.
mike
November 6th, 2012
9:18 am
I see Tiberius is in “full howl” this morning. Wonder how long that will last. LOL! What time do you take your nap every day?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:19 am
He signed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act, which was designed to protect consumers from unfair and deceptive credit card practices
Yeah, that is contrived. Tiberius, you are a sick person. Is reality that immobilizing to you?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:22 am
Finn, you DO realize that the CARD act merely allows credit card companies to charge the people who actually pay their credit card bills a higher finance rate to cover the costs of those who default on them, don’t you?
Of course you didn’t!
‘Cause that is the net result of that Act.
iggy
November 6th, 2012
9:24 am
In these last anxious hours I believe America is wondering…How will Snooki vote?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:25 am
Newt is calling it for Romney. That guy has never been right. Remember him saying “It’s a good bet I’ll be the candidate”
Glad I didn’t bet any money on that one.
iggy
November 6th, 2012
9:26 am
Im hearing rumors this morning about Obama telling Michelle to begin the search for a moving company…
mike
November 6th, 2012
9:26 am
iggy: “In these last anxious hours I believe America is wondering…How will Snooki vote?”
I know I laid awake and tossed and turned all night last night!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
9:26 am
Tib, here you go. Here is a list of what the card act does.
Bans Unfair Rate Increases
Prevents Unfair Fee Traps
Plain Sight /Plain Language Disclosures
Accountability
Protections for Students and Young People
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:28 am
Finn, when the first thing on the contrived list is his legislative success rate in his first year you know it’s contrived, given the fact he was greeted with a Pelosi-led House and a 59-41 margin in the Senate (once Franken was selected).
iggy
November 6th, 2012
9:30 am
Dems need their credit card rates, provisions spoon feed to them.
mike
November 6th, 2012
9:31 am
Finn: your mistake is that you are trying to use logic when dealing with Tiberius. Logic is completely useless and is brushed aside.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:31 am
Finn, it doesn’t matter what the Act was INTENDED to do. It matters what the Act HAS done. And all it has done is what I described above, because the one thing you can be sure of is that government has no idea how to craft legislation to do what they intend it to do.
iggy
November 6th, 2012
9:32 am
“Bans Unfair Rate Increases
Prevents Unfair Fee Traps”
Whats that supposed to mean? If one doesnt finance their life then they wouldnt have to worry about such trivalities…
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
9:32 am
Finn, if you have a problem with your credit card company, don’t do business with them. The card act is just more liberal fascism.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
9:32 am
“Logic is completely useless and is brushed aside.”
This from a guy who cuts and pastes who is addressing another guy who cuts and pastes.
Del
November 6th, 2012
9:36 am
I like Kyles gut prediction. Rasmussen has been pretty steady over the last 10 days. Gallup took a leap in Romney’s favor but now is running about the same as Rasmussen. While I like the RCP averaging methodology I put more confidence in the professional polling organizations Rasmussen and Gallup and there polling shows a neck and neck toss up race. Rasmussen gives Romney a slim edge in FL, VA, CO tied in Ohio and Wis. and about a point behind in N.H., behind in Nevada but within the margin of error. With North Carolina probably Romney, he should sweep the South. We shall see.
mike
November 6th, 2012
9:37 am
Tiberius: “This from a guy who cuts and pastes who is addressing another guy who cuts and pastes.”
You know, Tiberius, it wouldn’t hurt you to offer some links to some of your “opinions.” I say opinion because very little of what you offer here could be consider factual.