Presidential prediction: The candidate who defies history and wins will be . . .
History and the numbers say Barack Obama will be re-elected tomorrow. History and the intangibles suggest Mitt Romney will unseat him. Which will prevail?
Let’s look at each.
The numbers have moved solidly in Obama’s favor. He caught Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls on Halloween after trailing for the better part of the previous three weeks. More importantly, he holds leads — usually narrow leads, but leads nonetheless — in enough swing states to push him past the threshold of 270 electoral votes (EVs).
There’s been much parsing of the polls this year, much of it focused on the partisan-ID breakdowns that various pollsters were using. A poll of “likely voters” inherently tells us something about who the pollster believes will actually bother to vote, and that’s as much art as it is science. Many pollsters have been forecasting an electorate similar to that of 2008, a wave election that saw Obama rack up 365 EVs and the Democrats claim a huge majority in the House and, eventually if briefly, a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate.
It strikes me as very unlikely that the electorate will tip so heavily in favor of self-identifying Democrats again. That said, the pollsters would have to be very wrong for Romney to win enough states to capture the presidency. If you look at the RCP average for the swing states, he has a lead in states with a total of 235 EVs. For him to surpass 270, the polls would have to have been wrong by more than 2.8 percentage points on average — bumping his total to 285 EVs.
One of the last states that would flip to him in that scenario would be Ohio. That’s ominous because no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
On the other hand, Obama arguably has an even tougher historical precedent to overcome. Only two presidents have won re-election with a smaller number of EVs. The first was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, who had captured an excessive number of states in 1912 because William Howard Taft and Teddy Roosevelt split so many votes on the right. That won’t be the case in this year’s election. In the event, Wilson did increase his share of the popular vote, from 41.8 percent in 1912 to 49.2 percent in 1916.
The second was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won a larger margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College in his first re-election (1936) but tapered off in his third and fourth presidential victories (1940 and 1944) — situations that aren’t really analogous to Obama’s seeking a second term.
Barring a huge turn of events, Obama is not going to repeat his 2008 performance in terms of EVs or the popular vote (he won 52.7 percent of the latter four years ago). So his re-election would be fairly historic.
Why do presidents almost never win re-election with smaller majorities? Maybe it’s a matter of a small sample size; only 15 men have ever been elected to two or more consecutive terms as president. Or maybe voters tend to decide the incumbent either deserves re-election or doesn’t, and move either decisively in his direction or away from it.
If it’s the latter, almost every other measure of this contest favors Romney. Enthusiasm has been higher among Republicans almost uniformly. Obama breaks even in approval ratings — at best — and has lost his edge in favorability. Self-described independent voters have favored Romney — often by double-digit margins — in most polls, regardless of the top-line leader.
The states that moved into the “tossup” category during the past month are states the Democrats once considered comfortably in Obama’s column: The action toward the end of the campaign, in terms of spending and appearances by the candidates and their surrogates, has been in traditionally blue states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Early and absentee voting totals in most swing states, particularly in the specific areas of those swing states he’s counting on the most, point to a shift away from Obama compared to his totals in 2008. Seven of the 10 swing states according to RCP have elected GOP governors since 2008, and an eighth (North Carolina) is expected to do so Tuesday.
In short, the numbers are what they are — but anyone looking for reasons not to believe the poll numbers can find plenty of them.
My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.
My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.
My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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487 comments Add your comment
Kansas City
November 5th, 2012
5:05 pm
I have never ready Mr. Wingfield, but I am always impressed by an honest opinoin columnist. They are so rare these days.
Dusty
November 5th, 2012
5:06 pm
Good estimate, Kyle,
I’ll take Romney any way I can get him
As to that gut feeling, mine says”Dinnertime!”.
That’s the only sure prediction I’ve heard today…
Stephenson Billings
November 5th, 2012
5:07 pm
Romney winning independents 59%-35%
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf
curious
November 5th, 2012
5:07 pm
Doesn’t matter who wins. The country will continue to move forward at a slow to moderate pace.
Whatever budget cuts are made will be erased by budget increases. It just depends on which special interest group gets the best return on investment.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:07 pm
GOP will win Florida primarily due to Gov Scott not allowing early voting.
If your path to victory is hoping people dont vote.
Well what does that say for you as a party ?
Kyle Wingfield
November 5th, 2012
5:08 pm
td @ 4:58: Ralph Reed’s organization has been much more involved in GOTV efforts this year than in ‘08. Fwiw.
Kyle Wingfield
November 5th, 2012
5:10 pm
Thanks, Kansas City.
JamVet
November 5th, 2012
5:11 pm
You have that long-standing bet about this on Bookman’s blog, right?
Yep, with yours truly. He insisted on making it happen with me (not sure about anyone else) and being the all around good guy that I am, I accommodated him!
Remember what it was, td?
Kyle Wingfield
November 5th, 2012
5:11 pm
Stephenson @ 5:07: If Romney wins that group by even half that margin, I don’t see how he can lose.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 5th, 2012
5:12 pm
Cheesy Grits: If your path to victory is lengthening the voting process to give Democrats more time to stuff the ballot box.
Well what does that say for you as a party ?
——————–
Fixed.
ByteMe - Got ilk?
November 5th, 2012
5:13 pm
Romney winning independents 59%-35%
Except that the poll was a national poll and no one cares about those now except for trends and the trend is that it’s a close election, which is what the poll shows. State polls are MUCH more accurate than national polls at this stage, which is why states are getting polled so heavily right now.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:14 pm
Ralph Reed
Truly a great American.
Rips off Indians with Jack Abramoff.
Probably makes him a hero to the right.
Stephenson Billings
November 5th, 2012
5:14 pm
The only thing Hurrican Sandy did was show how impenitent FEMA is, no matter who is in charge.
Kyle Wingfield
November 5th, 2012
5:15 pm
ByteMe @ 5:13: Oh, if he wins independents nationally by 24 points, that will translate to the state level.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:15 pm
Cheesy Grits: If your path to victory is lengthening the voting process to give Democrats more time to stuff the ballot box.
Well what does that say for you as a party ?
——————–
How does one stuff the ballot box ?
I mean literally how do you do it ?
Edward Gibbon
November 5th, 2012
5:16 pm
Even if Obama had had a decent 1st term (like Bush 43), there is no way that he would get Dem/GOP/Independents that were for him turnout the same or larger than ‘08 as the enthusiasm would no longer be there. Inasmuch as he’s had a miserable 1st term, the pro-Obama vote will be greatly diminished. On the GOP side enthusiasm has never been higher and a large majority of Independents support Romney. Romney wins in landslide. QED
ByteMe - Got ilk?
November 5th, 2012
5:16 pm
ByteMe @ 5:13: Oh, if he wins independents nationally by 24 points, that will translate to the state level.
Right now, the south is Romney +22. There’s no way THAT translates nationally either.
Count Down
November 5th, 2012
5:18 pm
Kyle
Ralph Reed is working more in 2012 then 2008.
That does not mean the voting that td spoke about was down in 08 as opposed to previous elections and it could be that he has been working to bridge religious differences.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:18 pm
Lets just put it this way.
Is it possible all the polls are wrong.
Yes.
Of the last 32 polls done in Ohio. Obama was ahead in 31.
Is it possible there all wrong.
Sure.
But I wouldn’t want to bet on it.
And when Obama wins Ohio. Its over.
JakeTobias
November 5th, 2012
5:19 pm
It will be Romney in a landslide. The experts said Carter/Reagan would be close. After the attempted Cintoncare failed, the voters spoke at the midterms. With Obamacare, they spoke again at the midterms. It will be Romney in a landslide, because Obama is more Carter than Carter was.
Stephenson Billings
November 5th, 2012
5:20 pm
“The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.
Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:20 pm
Right now, the south is Romney +22. There’s no way THAT translates nationally either.
Right. The black guy could have a cure for cancer and he would be down 10 in the South.
That doesn’t translate to the rest of the non redneck country.
Edward Gibbon
November 5th, 2012
5:22 pm
State polls are most assuredly NOT more accurate. They are often done by non-professionals unlike the national ones by Gallup and Rasmussen. All the state polls have a widely inflated Dem turnout. Any state where Romney is w/i the margin of error, he wins easily.
JamVet
November 5th, 2012
5:22 pm
Romney is weak on defense.
Obama sent bin Laden to the bottom of the Indian ocean. Mitt said in so many words that he wouldn’t have even bothered to go after him.
At this point in our nation’s history, we simply cannot afford to have an effete coward from Massachusetts in the west Wing…
Count Down
November 5th, 2012
5:22 pm
Jake
Actually the majority of polling in 1980 showed Reagan leading and with momentum.
Taking polls from weeks and even months before the election and attempting to depict it as what was occurring right before the election is either being disingenuous, uninformed or just lying.
MANGLER
November 5th, 2012
5:23 pm
We already know that healthcare and education costs are going up and that, barring an international calamity, we are rebounding and 12 million jobs are coming along with moderate growth for the next 4 years, that’s if nothing new happens from today for the next 4 years.
If Obama is re-elected, then the filibustering Congress will need to do something akin (but not with Akin I hope) to compromising to get something accomplished. They won’t be able to block everything forever or it will become blatantly obvious that it is in fact, their fault. By blatantly, I mean even fox newscasters will say it.
If Romney wins, then the filibustering Congress will have to watch how much they let get accomplished because if the spigots suddenly open wide on Jan 21st, then it will be obvious that it is in fact, their fault.
MANGLER
November 5th, 2012
5:23 pm
I do propose a drinking games for tomorrow night:
a shot for each time Ohio changes color on whatever board you’re watching
a shot for each time CNN says “Bain”
a shot for each time Fox says “Benghazi”
a shot for each time NBC says “flip flop”
a shot for each time Wolf Bitzer’s facial hair gets blended in with the green screen behind him
shall we?
Count Down
November 5th, 2012
5:23 pm
Jake
Plus Carter’s approval rating was in the 30s. That is not the case for the incumbent today, but do carry on with your nonsense.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:25 pm
The experts said Carter/Reagan would be close.
A myth.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107171/exploding-the-reagan-1980-comeback-myth#
JamVet
November 5th, 2012
5:25 pm
George W Bush had a decent first term?????
WOW!!!
The man was a total train wreck in first 100 days alone…
Tundra Dude
November 5th, 2012
5:26 pm
S. Billings:
Exclusive: Romney up ONE POINT in Ohio and TIED in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,
Thanx for the humor. (you pay the piper, you call the tune)
from dailymail.uk:
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source
Edward Gibbon
November 5th, 2012
5:26 pm
The South are not rednecks and do reflect the rest of the country. California, Illinois, New York, Maryland and Massachusetts are out of step (and going broke, just a coincidence, no doubt) because they are filled with people who depend directly on the fed gov, overeducated idiots who can’t even dress themselves and arrogant jerks. Really smart people have left or are leaving those sinkholes.
Troy
November 5th, 2012
5:27 pm
Obama inherited a bad situation BUT he made it much worse, so why should we vote for someone to fix a worse situation when he could not fix a bad situation? It does not make sense. I dont care who the president is, if he cant live up to his promises then he should be a one term president and that includes the next president.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:28 pm
State polls are most assuredly NOT more accurate. They are often done by non-professionals unlike the national ones by Gallup and Rasmussen.
I agree Fox News is unprofessional but the last poll they did in Ohio had Obama up three points.
ragnar danneskjold
November 5th, 2012
5:29 pm
Pretty good analysis, for both sides. My gut says Romney in a cakewalk, due to the economic fundamentals – nobody thinks Obama has the slightest idea how to improve the economy, certainly nobody who hires people to do anything. “More of the same” sounds more like a threat than a plan.
cc
November 5th, 2012
5:29 pm
Kyle:
Your gut is correct, and the election won’t be as close as most people seem to think. Romney wins, and wins convincingly!
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:31 pm
The South are not rednecks and do reflect the rest of the country.
As Gov Christie pointed out the states that take from the Federal Government are the Southern States.
Northern States like New Jersey and New York send far more money to Washington than they ever receive back.
The welfare states are the deep south states. Alabama Georgia Mississippi etc
Alpheus
November 5th, 2012
5:33 pm
“Pretty indicative of our political climate….some people subscribe to quantitative analysis and science to understand the world, while other people go with their gut feeling.”
As someone who is familiar with statistics methods, and have been closely following the polls in this election, I wouldn’t be so ready to dismiss “gut” feelings.
For one thing, statistics itself is an art rather than a pure science–if it were otherwise, we would remember President Dewey. It is my understanding that only about 9% of people called respond to any given poll–that’s one massive “nonresponse bias”!
And then you have Obama’s office biasing Gallup, by threatening them with legal actions if they didn’t change their methodology.
And finally, you have levels of energy: Obama has attracted “Incredible Shrinking Crowds”, while Romney energy is pretty strong, even in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Most polls are based on 2008 turnout numbers–an election that was an aberration in many ways as well (and was different even from 2010 numbers).
There are lots of reasons, both tangible and intangible, for distrusting the polls. Some of this can even be quantifiable, for those who do it; but for those of us who don’t do it, but sense that something weird is going on, we can call this our “gut”.
Of course, ultimately the only numbers that count are the votes that are cast on or before November 5th.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:34 pm
Pretty good analysis, for both sides. My gut says Romney in a cakewalk, due to the economic fundamentals – nobody thinks Obama has the slightest idea how to improve the economy, certainly nobody who hires people to do anything. “More of the same” sounds more like a threat than a plan.
I hire people and ill vote for him. Adding 150,000 jobs a month is a heckuva lot better than the 500,000 plus we were losing each month when Obama took office.
Unlike you ive done pretty well. But of course I dont blame the government for all my problems like you.l
SBinF
November 5th, 2012
5:36 pm
What’s funny, SBinF @ 4:46, is that folks on the left started making some of the same excuses about the polls once Romney took the lead. It’s more human nature than anything partisan or ideological, imo.
———————————————-
Who was making this argument on the left? Disdain for polls is well documented on this blog and others, as well as the GOP elites.
JamVet
November 5th, 2012
5:36 pm
If I wanted to hide my money overseas like the GOP candidate does, I would vote for the uber-patriot Mitt…
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:36 pm
And then you have Obama’s office biasing Gallup, by threatening them with legal actions if they didn’t change their methodology.
Thats what a Republican hears.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/22/13417662-us-sues-gallup-alleging-pollster-overcharged-on-government-contracts?lite
Thats what actually happened.
Its ok happens all the time.
JamVet
November 5th, 2012
5:39 pm
We do not need a president who will blame our own American personnel overseas for sympathizing with their murderers.
Mitt – Unfit to lead.
Beyond The Middle of the Road
November 5th, 2012
5:40 pm
“The best news of all is that it won’t be much longer now. (One can hope, anyway…)
Kyle, rarely have I agreed more strongly with any statement made on ANY of these forums.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 5th, 2012
5:40 pm
There are lots of reasons, both tangible and intangible, for distrusting the polls
The main one being you dont like what they say.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 5th, 2012
5:40 pm
Romney wins!!!! Obama has not broken 50% much of anyplace and stats show that the incumbent gets about what he polls, the undecided tend to vote for the challenger. No one in history other than FDR, has won with an unemployment over 7.5%. Carter lost with a 7.5% unemployment. Obama is less popular than Carter in non Dem fairyland.
As Clinton so apply said, this Obama stuff is just one big fairy tale.
Well, Little Red Riding Barry doesn’t escape the wolf in this fairy tale.
Stephenson Billings
November 5th, 2012
5:42 pm
” “More of the same” sounds more like a threat than a plan.”
Except it probably won’t be more of the same. It will be more like Obama’s version of “austerity”: letting the Obama tax cuts expire AND allow his sequestration plan take effect.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 5th, 2012
5:42 pm
Way to commit to an answer, Kyle.
Count Down
November 5th, 2012
5:43 pm
Rafe
You could be right about the outcome, however Carter was polling in the mid 30s. Obama is mid to high 40s depending on the poll.
Huge difference.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 5th, 2012
5:45 pm
2004 John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen in Madison, 70,000 people there. Skerry John loses.
2012 Barry Obama and Bruce Springsteen in Madison, 18,000 people there. Bruce is losing his mojo or Barry is losing.