Presidential prediction: The candidate who defies history and wins will be . . .
History and the numbers say Barack Obama will be re-elected tomorrow. History and the intangibles suggest Mitt Romney will unseat him. Which will prevail?
Let’s look at each.
The numbers have moved solidly in Obama’s favor. He caught Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls on Halloween after trailing for the better part of the previous three weeks. More importantly, he holds leads — usually narrow leads, but leads nonetheless — in enough swing states to push him past the threshold of 270 electoral votes (EVs).
There’s been much parsing of the polls this year, much of it focused on the partisan-ID breakdowns that various pollsters were using. A poll of “likely voters” inherently tells us something about who the pollster believes will actually bother to vote, and that’s as much art as it is science. Many pollsters have been forecasting an electorate similar to that of 2008, a wave election that saw Obama rack up 365 EVs and the Democrats claim a huge majority in the House and, eventually if briefly, a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate.
It strikes me as very unlikely that the electorate will tip so heavily in favor of self-identifying Democrats again. That said, the pollsters would have to be very wrong for Romney to win enough states to capture the presidency. If you look at the RCP average for the swing states, he has a lead in states with a total of 235 EVs. For him to surpass 270, the polls would have to have been wrong by more than 2.8 percentage points on average — bumping his total to 285 EVs.
One of the last states that would flip to him in that scenario would be Ohio. That’s ominous because no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
On the other hand, Obama arguably has an even tougher historical precedent to overcome. Only two presidents have won re-election with a smaller number of EVs. The first was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, who had captured an excessive number of states in 1912 because William Howard Taft and Teddy Roosevelt split so many votes on the right. That won’t be the case in this year’s election. In the event, Wilson did increase his share of the popular vote, from 41.8 percent in 1912 to 49.2 percent in 1916.
The second was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won a larger margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College in his first re-election (1936) but tapered off in his third and fourth presidential victories (1940 and 1944) — situations that aren’t really analogous to Obama’s seeking a second term.
Barring a huge turn of events, Obama is not going to repeat his 2008 performance in terms of EVs or the popular vote (he won 52.7 percent of the latter four years ago). So his re-election would be fairly historic.
Why do presidents almost never win re-election with smaller majorities? Maybe it’s a matter of a small sample size; only 15 men have ever been elected to two or more consecutive terms as president. Or maybe voters tend to decide the incumbent either deserves re-election or doesn’t, and move either decisively in his direction or away from it.
If it’s the latter, almost every other measure of this contest favors Romney. Enthusiasm has been higher among Republicans almost uniformly. Obama breaks even in approval ratings — at best — and has lost his edge in favorability. Self-described independent voters have favored Romney — often by double-digit margins — in most polls, regardless of the top-line leader.
The states that moved into the “tossup” category during the past month are states the Democrats once considered comfortably in Obama’s column: The action toward the end of the campaign, in terms of spending and appearances by the candidates and their surrogates, has been in traditionally blue states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Early and absentee voting totals in most swing states, particularly in the specific areas of those swing states he’s counting on the most, point to a shift away from Obama compared to his totals in 2008. Seven of the 10 swing states according to RCP have elected GOP governors since 2008, and an eighth (North Carolina) is expected to do so Tuesday.
In short, the numbers are what they are — but anyone looking for reasons not to believe the poll numbers can find plenty of them.
My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.
My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.
My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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487 comments Add your comment
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:47 pm
Go Dawgs – beat Aubarn! Woof Woof Woof
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:47 pm
Stanley told the Times that he “made the decision to close the gates based on a recommendation from local law enforcement officials, and that he did not believe there would be election-related chaos.” But Jim Galloway of the Atlanta Journal Constitution got a different story when he contacted local law enforcement.
We just fielded a call from Calvin Moss, the Woodstock police chief, who said that he has had a conversation with Stanley this afternoon — and Stanley denied getting any such information from the Woodstock police force. “We have no reason to believe that the election and its aftermath will be anything but peaceful,” Moss said. “Certainly we would give no one that kind of information.”
alternet.org
Cons are the chicken littles of America. I guess we libs need to protect them.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
12:48 pm
http://washingtonexaminer.com/philly-gop-poll-inspectors-being-ousted-for-dems/article/2512714#.UJlNNG872Ai
There you go Finn. It will make CBS/CNN in about 2 weeks if Obama loses, never if he wins. Hard to give you a liberal source, if they refuse to cover the news.
iBS Aplenty
November 6th, 2012
12:48 pm
Ragnar -
No doubt the truly insightful commentary comes from the libertarian wing of the Repubs. “Mid South Philosopher” used to hold down this turf admirably or at least so I thought. Haven’t seen him in a while – maybe I just don’t “recognize” him…
I still feel Mr. Romney should have based his political strategy more on the repeal of ObamaCare. It certainly was an issue where the Dems were very weak, what with the bribes and shenanigans needed to get the bill passed. But Romney hung his hat on an ability to lay the economic malaise on the president. Seemed like it was working – now, too close to call.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:49 pm
Barry, thanks for making my point!
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
12:50 pm
Naturally, if Obozo wins, real Americans expect his liberal fascist agenda to be obstructed.
” Real Americans ”
Thats a hoot.
What he means is ” White Americans ”
Its part of the code they use.
I guess the stock market doubling under Obama didnt have anything to do with the free market
LOL
You guys are clowns.
bluecoat
November 6th, 2012
12:52 pm
Romney has more experience losing.My gut says he is too old to change ways.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
12:52 pm
Court-appointed Republican poll inspectors are being forcibly removed from voting stations in some Philadelphia wards and replaced in some cases by Democratic inspectors and even members of the Black Panthers, according to GOP officials.
Key phrase being the last one.
According to GOP officials.
Fail
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
12:53 pm
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/
Now, they have a mural of the Messiah up in one of the precincts, kinda like a Cuban election.
Oblama
November 6th, 2012
12:54 pm
To get to Nanny State Pelosi’s 56 states I suggest breaking up the two largest electoral states. Start with North New York and South New York and North California and South California. What are the other four states you would divide?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 6th, 2012
12:55 pm
Kyle, we want you two to wear boxing gloves this time.
We demand blood!
iggy
November 6th, 2012
12:55 pm
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer’s ineptocracy
November 6th, 2012
12:39 pm
Hopefully Eric Holder will save the day…LOL!!
Financial Times
November 6th, 2012
1:02 pm
Stock Market Doubling under Obama? You are truly an incompetent blowhard!!
iggy
November 6th, 2012
1:03 pm
Ive not yet seen the Kyle vs Bookman video but I think Bookman has a very nice toupee’.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
1:05 pm
What are the other four states you would divide?
Frankly I would just let the south go If I were America. Let it go totally.
They can elect Jefferson Davis grandson or something and live the way they want. Backwards.
Also the red states take far more from the Federal Government than they pay in. They are the welfare states.
States like New Jersey, as Gov Christie pointed out, take far less from the Government than they send in.
States like New York and California have been subsidizing the South for a long time now.
Just let the South go and let it turn into a third world country. Then the rest of the USA can thrive.
iggy
November 6th, 2012
1:06 pm
“Cons are the chicken littles of America. I guess we libs need to protect them.”
The members of this gated community are just attempting to save lives and ammo.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
November 6th, 2012
1:08 pm
Stock Market Doubling under Obama? You are truly an incompetent blowhard!!
Ummm it Did.
But detractors of President Obama should remember one thing – Wall Street has been booming under this president. Since Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009, the Dow is up about 48%, the S&P 500 is up 60% and the tech-focused Nasdaq is up 90%.
http://investorplace.com/2011/01/president-barack-obama-good-for-stock-market/
md
November 6th, 2012
1:15 pm
“Also the red states take far more from the Federal Government than they pay in. They are the welfare states.”
That myth again?
Now go do some homework as to why…….it has to do with military spending (you know, all those bases in the south that protect the country) and medicare…….and that would be all the old people that flee the brutal north for the crappy beaches of the south…………
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
1:20 pm
The Dow was at 14000 under Our President Bush, before the Dodd-Frank recession.
Our President Bush: Superior to Obozo.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
1:26 pm
Lil Barry
It was 14000 when Bush left? Talk about the collapse on his watch.
If you are going to tell it. Tell it all.
just saying
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
1:30 pm
Lil Barry
Start with 7949 Dow then proceed per your usual crying diatribe about how the Democrats wrecked the economy.
How funny that you constantly show the high mark of the Dow under Bush as if that what it was when he left office.
No cry on as usual. You are one little funny dudette.
FAIL
md
November 6th, 2012
1:34 pm
“about how the Democrats wrecked the economy.”
Bush actually started calling for the reform of Fannie and Freddie way back in his first budget in 2001…….and warned it could lead to a crisis on several occasions……….and the party of “no” at the time started with a D………google can be your friend.
So yes, we could absolutely have a debate as to how the dems wrecked the economy……I would point to some of the things the gop did as well, but a case can be made that the dems were the culprit…………
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
1:37 pm
md
The military issue is a valid point, but did you purposely forget about the percentage of government assistance receiving residents or are you not aware of that?
You know the answer, but didn’t mention it on purpose. I have read where you have done the same thing several times on this blog. You are not that slick, eventhough you have convinced yourself that you are. So you go do your homework then comeback.
Your welcome. Glad I could point that out for you.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 6th, 2012
1:38 pm
The Dow has almost nothing to do with the health of the economy, even less to do with government intervention in same.
It has much more to do with the fiscal health of a select few companies.
People on both sides wold know that if they followed reality instead of quoting mindless numbers every now and again to try to make some stupid political point.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
1:39 pm
md
No, the bubble was the culprit and all of your conjecture will not change that. Barry only sees things one way. You do as well, but like to present that you are open minded, but you are much more transparent than the Obama Administration to say the least.
You will be coming on here, crying for the next 4 yrs, just as you do now. You diatribes will be the same. You are the laid back excuses man.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
1:42 pm
Tiberius
Agree. Merely pointing out that when LLB finds it advantageous he touts the height of the Dow under Bush, but never mentions where the Dow was at when Bush left office.
Either way. Have a super duper day.
md
November 6th, 2012
1:45 pm
BL,
Notice the big blue states in the top 10:
http://www.statjump.com/lists/public-assisstance-dp3c123ts.html
md
November 6th, 2012
1:48 pm
“No, the bubble was the culprit and all of your conjecture will not change that.”
And Fannie and Freddie played no part in the bubble……
Uh-huh……..
They actually added more to their portfolios during that time frame than they did in ALL of their history prior to………….please, get a clue.
md
November 6th, 2012
1:51 pm
And I’m open minded, but only to a degree…….I stop at the “vote your neighbor to pay more” line…….
Linda
November 6th, 2012
1:52 pm
Kyle, You were smart to compare your head with your guts. Had you compared your head with your heart, the heartless liberals here would have no idea what you were comparing.
Arguing over polls is just as pointless today as it was nine months ago.
The fact that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected is a fact. Liberals tend to rely on Obama’s words, whereas conservatives rely on his actions. His actions have never matched his words.
Those hollow styrofoam columns reminiscent of Greece, of all places, were a dead giveaway, along with the fake smoke & mirrored teleprompters.
He promised to stop the flow of the oceans, but Sandy defied him & his FEMA squad who told homeless, hungry, thirsty, wet, cold, powerless callers to get help via the internet.
Obama has never wanted to BE president. He enjoyed RUNNING for president & ACTING like he was president. If he looses, that will not change much. On Wednesday, he can continue RUNNING for president for the next 4 years, just like he has for the last 4 years.
iggy
November 6th, 2012
2:21 pm
Obama is like Teddy Kennedy. He doesnt want to be President, he just doesnt want anyone else being President.
And Mr Fairplay Teddy, sabotaged Carters campaign against Reagan.
Black Label
November 6th, 2012
3:20 pm
md
You must have been an out of control individual at one time or have you been so dry and rigid your entire life?
Some people who exhibit patterns such as those you exhibit, do so to suppress bad habits of years past. They get in a “rigid” zone.
Bless your heart and keep the faith
md
November 6th, 2012
4:34 pm
Rigid? This is just a brief snapshot of what I ALLOW others to see……..
As for the rigid part, actually just the opposite……I say live and let live, but since it is fact that we choose everything we do, don’t come crying to me when your choices don’t work out for you…..I live with my bad choices (I have no problem raising my hand and saying my bad), so others can do the same.
Should a student that chooses to study 24/7, does not partying and makes A’s have to share those A’s with a student that CHOOSES to party 24/7, does no studying and makes F’s??
Now expand that question to life in general and ask yourself the answer……….many don’t much like their answer because it boils down to choices……or blame and excuses.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
5:47 pm
Cheesy Grits: ”Real Americans”…Thats a hoot…What he means is ”White Americans”
——————————–
So you think only white folks can be real Americans? I don’t.
Cheesy Grits: Racist.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 6th, 2012
5:53 pm
I did tell it all, Black Label…Our President Bush got the Dow up to 14,000 and then the Dodd-Frank recession hit. All this after inheriting the dot-bomb collapse and the Islamofascist 9/11 attack, which was conceived, planned, trained for on Clinton’s watch.
Obozo hasn’t managed to get it back to where it was before the recession. Obozo’s record is exceedingly pathetic.
Darwin
November 7th, 2012
9:26 am
How’s your gut today?
Evolve or die
November 9th, 2012
12:53 pm
Opps, didn’t get this one right