Poll Position: Who will win the presidency?
The day is almost upon us. It’s time to declare.
After a very long election season, we’re a few days away from learning whether Barack Obama will be re-elected or if Mitt Romney will replace him. Which way will it go?
Who will win the presidency?
- Obama with a couple of states to spare (458 Votes)
- Romney by just a few electoral votes (367 Votes)
- Romney with a couple of states to spare (295 Votes)
- Obama by just a few electoral votes (270 Votes)
- Obama with 325+ electoral votes (185 Votes)
- Romney with 325+ electoral votes (184 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,759
Loading ...Now, you can find any number of data points to support your desired or predicted outcome. National polls, state polls, battleground polls, early voting totals, absentee ballot requests, TV ad spending, campaign stops by the candidates and their surrogates — all point to a tight race, and any can be used to explain why Obama will win or Romney will be victorious. In such a close race, with hardly anyone still undecided and likely to vote, it’ll probably come down to which side’s base is more enthusiastic, and which side’s get-out-the-vote efforts or “ground game” is more effective.
I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen. The nearby poll for this week’s Poll Position offers a range of possibilities for you to register a strong to moderate to narrow win for either candidate. Feel free to be more specific in the comments as to which swing state will go to each candidate.
As for me …
I’ll make my prediction next week!
– By Kyle Wingfield
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273 comments Add your comment
southpaw
November 2nd, 2012
12:10 pm
“War is good for business.” Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #34. But don’t forget Rule #35: “Peace is good for business.”
http://projectsanctuary.com/the_complete_ferengi_rules_of_acquisition.htm
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
12:10 pm
splavistic: can you tell me why Evangelicals are o.k. with voting for a Mormon?
———–
Because they aren’t as bigoted as most libtards?
Jeff
November 2nd, 2012
12:12 pm
A. Nelson, Everyone on the world hates us, Why should America do anything for the poor in other countries? They us the aid we give them to build terrorist networks to attack us later.. And if you think America is the reason these other people are poor then your wrong. We have already helped more people in the world than any other civilization in the history of the world..
Dusty
November 2nd, 2012
12:13 pm
MarkV
Woujld you please put in writing this statement which you declare is true. AMERICAN IS NOT IN DEBT.
If you are not a protoge of Obama’s would you also explain why you consider his every move something remarkable? We have already seen strong presidents: FDR, Truman and yes, Bush. .Obama is not one of them. Nothing gets better with him even if you dig up a few small increases or decreases and picture them as marvelous.
No, I do not excel in the knowledge of economics as perhaps you do but i do manage my own quite well.
If you want to have a discussion of hematology I will be a bit more knowledgeable.
Adios!!
redneckbluedog
November 2nd, 2012
12:15 pm
cc
November 2nd, 2012
5:52 am
Only four days left before the end of the leftists’ dreams!
I can hardly wait!
It will be President-Elect Romney after Tuesday, and President Romney in January, 2013.
————————————————–
Are you even looking at your own state’s polling..? You should just pretend that President Obama is a Republican for the next four years, who hates science and women and just about everything…
and even then you STILL won’t be happy….This has more to do with your personal unhappiness than your politics…and that is sad…
redneckbluedog
November 2nd, 2012
12:16 pm
St Simons
November 2nd, 2012
12:06 pm
we (barely) survived 8 years of Little Nero with a Cowboy Hat
you will survive 16 years of Obama, Hillary, & E Warren
============================================
and then Cuomo…
Jaime
November 2nd, 2012
12:16 pm
Vote for Obama and the US will ceased to exist as it was and always been….but Benghazi’s Impeachment will kick his ass out of the WH. The circle of life continues in Obama father’s DNA was a buffoon and so is Obama… read my lips.
Taipei Personality
November 2nd, 2012
12:18 pm
The election comes down to this…Democrats are expecting equal or better turnout than in 2008. Won’t happen, economy just not doing well enough to expect that. GOP is expecting equal or better turnout than in 2010. That won’t happen either, Romney is just not conservative enough to get that much enthusiasm. Early voting usually favors Dems, but lots of reports that GOP is showing up early too. I expect polling locations to be steady but not crazy on Tuesday. The election is coming down to Ohio. I foresee Obama leading 263 to 253, with Ohio going undetermined for several days if not weeks due to voting machine and absentee ballot issues. Winner gets the spoils. BTW, that also explains why Romney is in PA, he is hedging bets and trying to win next closest (vote, not just geography) state, so that optimistically he could be ahead 273 to 243 and Ohio would not matter. But I don’t see him pulling it off. My hope is that whoever wins takes both EC and popular vote, do not want another 2000!
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
12:20 pm
An earlier poster said something about Obama being a Harvard grad.That is special to say the least. Wonder who paid the tuition, around $200,000 I think? I am curious, is that completely sealed from American public? Is that what knucklehead Trump was seeking to find out? Hey KYLE, do you know?
Electoral College
November 2nd, 2012
12:24 pm
Tom
Birther much or did you finally move past that?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 2nd, 2012
12:26 pm
Not surprisingly, few of the libs are willing to back up their predictions with anything approaching thoughtful analysis.
Hillbilly D
November 2nd, 2012
12:36 pm
Laugh about it, shout about it when you’ve got to choose…
Ev’ry way you look at it, you lose.
Paul Simon
Will
November 2nd, 2012
12:44 pm
President Obama will be re-elected by winning swing states Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio and possilbly Colorado. He will lose swing states Florida, North Carolina, and and possibly Colorado.
He will lose Wisconsin, not considered a swing state, and this will be the biggest surprise of the night.
And the political party of the “pale male” will be left wondering how it could have possibly lost this election to such a weak incumbent. Mainstream republicans will blame the hard right wing of the party and the hard right wing of the party will argue that Romney was never their choice in the first place.
In 2016 the hard right wing of the party will “wise up”, quit supporting multiple hard right wing candidates in the primaries thus allowing mainstream republicans like Romney, McCain and Bush to win the nomination. These hard right wingers will secure the nomination for someone like Santorium and then will lose the 2016 election in an electoral landslide.
An almost more improbable story of the election will be the democrats maintaining a majority in the US Senate. For this, there will be little doubt that the hard right wing gave away control of the senate by nominating senate candidates like Akin and that yahoo in Indiana.
Since the hard right wing of the party dominates in Georgia, Senator Chambliss will lose the republican primary in Georgia unless the hard right wingers are split among multiple candidates in the primary.
JamVet
November 2nd, 2012
12:47 pm
Wow!
306 of you actually voted that Flip Robme will win???
Of course, take out the fifty times that Lil BB voted and the 45 from tibs and the number is more realistic.
No matter, because either way, prepare to be very disappointed next week.
The right-wing American fascists and union-busters in the GOP are likely going to lose Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado and Pennsylvania.
Game, set, match.
Better luck in 2016.
When the ticket will be………………………….
Bush/Hoover! (The sound Economy Ticket!)
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
12:49 pm
Electoral College – So if I would like to find out about who paid $200,000 tuition for the Harvard grad, in your simple mind that makes me a birther? How pathetic you libs are, that is simply BS!!
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
12:56 pm
I get sick and tired of you libs talking about Bush’s two wars. The House and Senate approved and financed, you seem to forget that! When 3,000 Americans were murdered on 9-11, what would you libs have done, turned the other cheek? What a bunch of passive wussies!! It was time to get some “payback” but you occupy community organizer types will never understand that!
Bill Campbell
November 2nd, 2012
12:57 pm
There are enough slackers, morons and lazy butts to keep Obama in office!
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
12:59 pm
Aquagirl – Are you serious? Maybe some of us cons could take up a collection for a one-way ticket?
Signified
November 2nd, 2012
1:06 pm
Hey Republicans – don’t like climate change? Just deny science is real!!! Yeah. Don’t like statistical analysis? No problem – math isn’t real either. Unfortunately for you, neither is Republican tax dogma. Turns out, it’s just a dog!!!! hahahahahahaha!!!
The Congressional Research Service has withdrawn an economic report that found no correlation between top tax rates and economic growth, a central tenet of conservative economic theory, after Senate Republicans raised concerns about the paper’s findings and wording.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congressional-research-services-report-on-tax-rates.html
whaaa whaaaa whaaaaa crying like little babies. Take your report down- it’s mean to us! whaaa whaaa whaaaa…. greedy selfish babies.
td
November 2nd, 2012
1:11 pm
“I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen.”
It depends on who shows up to the polls. Most of the polls are using the same turn out numbers as 2008. Here is some points to look at.
1: African Americans turned out in record numbers and made up 13% of all people casting votes in 2008. Will that be the case this year?
2: Youth: Young people turned out in record numbers and voted for Obama. Will this happen again?
3: Suburban white married women with children voted 2% more for Obama in 2008. Will that happen again?
4: Religious conservatives was at a record low turnout in 2008 but they were the driving force in 2010 for the Republican take over of the HOR? What will their turnout be this year.
I think African Americans will make up their come back down to casting 11% (every year average except 2008) of all the votes. I feel that the youth is back to being mostly apathetic and will get back to levels in most elections. White Suburban married women with children will give their vote this year to Romney by 4 to 8% and that the religious right is not going to stay home and come back to normal levels this year.
The above will wipe out the 7 point win Obama had and will give Romney a 1 to 2 point win.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 2nd, 2012
1:11 pm
I wish I lived in Cuba!
We wish you did too!. Sometimes wishes come true, wouldn’t that be cool getting to ride around in those 1953 Chevies and eat lite everyday.
MarkV
November 2nd, 2012
1:12 pm
Dusty @12:13 pm: “MarkV. Woujld you please put in writing this statement which you declare is true. AMERICAN IS NOT IN DEBT.”
Dusty,
And why would I write that? Show me any statement I have made in any post, which could be interpreted that way.
“If you are not a protoge of Obama’s would you also explain why you consider his every move something remarkable?”
Ditto.
If you write your opinion that Romney would be a better president than Obama, I will not agree, but I will not argue with you. You are entitled to you opinions and your beliefs. I would not even make snide remarks about your being Romney’s protégé.
But once you start arguing with specific reasons, than either those are rational and truthful, or they are not. I have pointed out your statements, which were not either.
You can believe that had Romney (or McCain) been elected president in 2008, the economy would now be in better shape. Again, you can believe in anything, even fairytales, that is your privilege. But do not pretend that those beliefs are facts.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 2nd, 2012
1:13 pm
And the liberal stupidity continues.
Not a deep thought among you.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 2nd, 2012
1:13 pm
One other benefit of living in Cuba, you don’t have to watch the polls or get anxious over who is going to win the election. If you stay around the USA long enough, we might become Cuba, with everyone on the dole.
Susan Mathis
November 2nd, 2012
1:21 pm
It’s all OBAMA. It’s obvious Romney is getting desperate with his current Jeep ad.
Burrish
November 2nd, 2012
1:25 pm
I agree, America is a failed country. We already messed up, and now we are gonna mess up once again if Romney wins. But its gonna be funny when a race war breaks out. I wonder what will happen then..hmm
Jason(SSG, US Army)
November 2nd, 2012
1:29 pm
I think that most of the media and polls are slanted towards the dems. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a break for Romney on election day and wound up with a landslide for the GOP.
I do hope that is the way it goes anyway. I am very concerned with the current administration, and specifically with what Obama meant when he told Medvedev that he would have more flexibility after the election. If he plans on reducing our defenses or some other type of negotiation with Russia, why would he want to wait until after the election. Why be secretive. Very interesting to see how this “most transparent government” is working out for us.
Good luck Romney/Ryan, and good luck to us all.
Taipei Personality
November 2nd, 2012
1:30 pm
Burrish…what could possibly be funny about a race war? A landslide for either candidate would help alleviate that concern. But not sure that is likely.
Taipei Personality
November 2nd, 2012
1:32 pm
Jason, thank you for your service to our great country! I am sorry for the ambiguity that you in the armed forces must be serving under right now, and there are plenty of us ready to go out there and vote for a more responsible commander-in-chief!
Aquagirl
November 2nd, 2012
1:33 pm
Aquagirl – Are you serious?
No Tom, that was a namejacker. But your credulity is not surprising.
td
November 2nd, 2012
1:34 pm
Burrish
November 2nd, 2012
1:25 pm
It is not funny but it could become a reality when Romney wins if what I have been reading on twitter comes to be true. Let us hope and pray that those with the anger are just blowing off steam and will not follow through with their threats.
bu2
November 2nd, 2012
1:36 pm
@allegedly Independent Thinker
Texas had a similar real estate recession in the 80s, except it was worse. It was estimated 1 in 4 Houstonians lost their jobs in 1986. Unemployment peaked at over 13%. Nearly every S&L went under. All but one of the major banks went under or was acquired. My townhouse which was going for 80k at the peak (I bought at 66k) had a “twin” sell for 12k in 1986. 80% of the people in my townhouse complex got foreclosed on (often their choice).
There was no trillion $ stimulus. Yet in 3 years everything was back to normal. In 4 years, Obama has made things worse.
Obama thought unemployment would peak at 8% or so. And it might have if he didn’t tell everyone every day how bad it was going to be. Bill Clinton finally had to tell him to just shut up in February. I’d sent him an e-mail when he was elected telling him (not that I expected anyone to pay attention) he needed to tone down the negative waves. Millions are unemployed because he couldn’t quit complaining and he destroyed consumer confidence. He didn’t understand the power of the presidency. He just didn’t get the job.
He still talks about Bush tax policies causing the recession. It was a simple real estate bust, like many we have had in the past. He just doesn’t get the economy.
He tried to spend 51 billion on high speed rail when we had record deficits and huge unemployment. He had the only Congress (a democratic one in both houses) to never pass the budget. He just doesn’t get budgets.
We had unemployment and fear and the 1st act he does as president is provide funding for agencies that provide abortions overseas. He just doesn’t get the job.
And he has no ideas or plans to fix the economy. He has no ideas or plans to fix social security, just to pretend there is no problem. He has no ideas or plans to fix medicare, just to pretend you can magically fix it by continuing to reduce what you pay doctors. He has no ideas or plans to solve the terrorist threat in Afghanistan (ok, that’s a tough one), just ignore it by getting out on a predetermined date.
bu2
November 2nd, 2012
1:37 pm
@WOW
6.5% unemployment in Ohio is not the lowest in the country. And for 3 years, they were one of the worst. Maybe the fact that it has dropped about 2% in the last year is helping Obama. And home prices have been hit very bad there.
Jason(SSG, US Army)
November 2nd, 2012
1:39 pm
Signified – Global warming has pretty much been debunked now. Since you like science, I suggest that you look at something other than the last 100 years, where the average temperature has increased by less than one degree. In fact, the earth is currently in a cool period. I suggest a little research before you post. Also, as far as your economic “facts”…..it is a fact that if we tax the American people at greater than 18% of GDP, which we are very close to now, revenue decreases. That means that raising taxes will acutally result in less money going in to the government. While we clearly need to tax people, we cannot simply tax our way out of a $16 trillion debt.
bu2
November 2nd, 2012
1:40 pm
@Jason
Polls are increasingly unreliable because more people don’t respond. No way to tell if those people slant one way or the other.
It was interesting how last month the media spins the drop in the unemployment rate despite the anemic job growth. This month all the headlines are the better than expected job growth (not that it is that great) and the increase in the unemployment rate is a footnote in all the stories.
Jason(SSG, US Army)
November 2nd, 2012
1:41 pm
Taipei personality- you are very welcome. Lets make sure that we all get out there and vote. I am ready for REAL change.
harold
November 2nd, 2012
1:44 pm
PEOPLE IN NEW YORK ARE WONDERING WHERE FEMA IS???THIS IS WORSE THAN KATRINA!
PEOPLE ARE LOOKING IN GARBAGE CANS FOR FOOD. THERE IS NO HEAT. FOR MANY THERE IS NO SHELTER.
WHERE IS THE PRESIDENT? HE SHOULD BE IN NEW YORK AND HE IS OUT CAMPAIGNING IN OHIO———-ARE YOU KIDDING ME? HE IS A HORRIBLE LEADER.
IT IS GOING TO GET BRUTALLY COLD UP THERE—NO FOOD–NO WATER—NO GAS—AND WHERE IS THE NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA ON REPORTING THIS LACK OF LEADERSHIP????
harold
November 2nd, 2012
1:48 pm
Why isn’t The National News media reporting on plights of people in New York?
This is worse than Katrina. No food–no gas–no water–no President—he is in Ohio campaigning.
Are you kidding me? Where is FEMA?
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
1:51 pm
Aquagirl@1:33 – Sorry, my mistake! I thought you always seemed a little off but not over the edge yet. Perhaps some Obama Care would help?
Taipei Personality
November 2nd, 2012
1:53 pm
harold…thank you for finding the caps lock key! You make a good point, the media is certainly calling this differently from Katrina. time will tell what the long term costs are comparatively though. that said, it is indeed bad. let them eat marathons!
ATLien
November 2nd, 2012
1:58 pm
Tom,
What is you point about the tuition? Seriously what are you getting at? Will you inquire about every private citizen in graduate school and how they could afford the tuition? Who paid Mitt’s tuition? Who paid McCain’s tuition? Who paid Cantor’s tuition? Are you assuming that some terrorist mastermind paid for it? Honestly why is this the question you ask? IDIOT.
ATLien
November 2nd, 2012
2:00 pm
bu2,
That’s right let’s compare a state problem to a national one. Yeah that’s really sound analysis on your part.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
2:01 pm
Atlien – Not a private citizen, he is the President. Seems like you guys are saying the worst, might have been a rich uncle or something. It did not seem like his family could afford it. Why the mystery?
Taipei Personality
November 2nd, 2012
2:03 pm
Tom, I have wondered if perhaps he got a scholarship. Would help if he’d release some records!
Thank you also for your service to our great country!
Electoral College
November 2nd, 2012
2:06 pm
Tom
Your getting sick of this or that is no concern to me……..
But have a great day
ATLien
November 2nd, 2012
2:08 pm
WHO CARES?. Tens of thousands of students go to school on Federal Aid or through grants / scholarships, even if their family couldn’t afford it. At Harvard right now there are tons of students at school through some type of Aid or grant. Why is this important? Should you only be able to go to college if your parents can afford to pay the tuition? All grants and scholarships should cease to exist? Are you jealous that he has degrees from Columbia and Harvard and it was verified and vetted in the nomination process. Mitts degree is more authentic b/c his parent’s left money in a trust to pay for it? Honestly, this is very stupid query.
Kyle Wingfield
November 2nd, 2012
2:09 pm
Aquagirl’s name-jacker at 12:54 is off the blog.
saywhat?
November 2nd, 2012
2:23 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 2nd, 2012
7:05 am
“With any luck you Paulistas will just leave.
A bigger bunch of sore losers and whiners we have never seen before”
————————————————————————
Really? Apparently somebody doesn’t remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth the morning after the last Presidential election, let alone the last four years (and likely the next four).Probably an instance of not seeing the forest for all the trees.
Wisconsin almost ran out of cheese with all they had to export to go with the whine.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
2:25 pm
AtLien – Just a question, you do not have to make a federal case out of it. So defensive, why? If someone had asked Bush, Clinton or Reagan, I do not think you have the same response. Why is it, the ATL thing?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
2:30 pm
On Monday the gamblers had Romney as a 2-1 underdog. Today he is a 3-1 underdog.
The gamblers know.