Poll Position: Who will win the presidency?
The day is almost upon us. It’s time to declare.
After a very long election season, we’re a few days away from learning whether Barack Obama will be re-elected or if Mitt Romney will replace him. Which way will it go?
Who will win the presidency?
- Obama with a couple of states to spare (458 Votes)
- Romney by just a few electoral votes (367 Votes)
- Romney with a couple of states to spare (295 Votes)
- Obama by just a few electoral votes (270 Votes)
- Obama with 325+ electoral votes (185 Votes)
- Romney with 325+ electoral votes (184 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,759
Loading ...Now, you can find any number of data points to support your desired or predicted outcome. National polls, state polls, battleground polls, early voting totals, absentee ballot requests, TV ad spending, campaign stops by the candidates and their surrogates — all point to a tight race, and any can be used to explain why Obama will win or Romney will be victorious. In such a close race, with hardly anyone still undecided and likely to vote, it’ll probably come down to which side’s base is more enthusiastic, and which side’s get-out-the-vote efforts or “ground game” is more effective.
I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen. The nearby poll for this week’s Poll Position offers a range of possibilities for you to register a strong to moderate to narrow win for either candidate. Feel free to be more specific in the comments as to which swing state will go to each candidate.
As for me …
I’ll make my prediction next week!
– By Kyle Wingfield
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273 comments Add your comment
trailerparkted
November 2nd, 2012
9:15 am
@Tom, while that is true, I still haven’t found the WMD’s!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
9:15 am
Ain’t no coincidence the Economist’s masthead is red.
Loy
November 2nd, 2012
9:17 am
Thanks Rush
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
9:20 am
I will be disappointed if Obama wins re-election
Till the commie, socialist, Muslim Kenyan starts naming liberal Supreme Court justices?
mwuahahahahahaha
Partisay
November 2nd, 2012
9:21 am
“Aquagirl attacks me for correcting someone erroneously bashing America.”
But never mind that Lil’ Barry’s comment of “I’m thinking Americans outnumber Democrats and President Romney wins” does what? Bashes Americans. If you are saying that Democrats aren’t Americans, you are bashing half of this country by questioning their patiotism and devotion to their country, which is probably the worst insult any American can give another. Of course, it was standard procedure when W was president. Anybody that was against the Iraq war was a traitor (you’re either with us or against us).
So go ahead Lil B. Attack someone for bashing America but it’s OK if you bash half of America yourself.
Rush
November 2nd, 2012
9:22 am
Finn the student – up and at it early this morning…..and I will hazard to guess will be on it most of the day. Fight the good fight Finn…..what will you do after zero bama loses on Tuesday?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 2nd, 2012
9:24 am
Oct numbers, 7.9% unemployment overall, and his most loyal supporters AA unemployment rose to 14.3, up a percentage, yet they act like addicts hooked on their unreliable and untrustworthy supplier.
Romney wins by a larger margin than predicted. The 2010 voters just went home for a lemonade and will return in a foul mood. I heard one standing in line, yesterday, say he has been waiting for 4 years just for that moment, and he didn’t mind the long lines.
I know that four years from now, we will still be debating the accuracy of the polls, but it seems that with all the emphasis and complaints on reliability, that this time we could sort out what works in polling and what does not. I am sure nothing will change next time, but we can always hope that someone goes to school. Rasmussen was the most accurate last time and probably will be this time, but yet he is disparaged.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
9:29 am
disparaged
I believe your God, Shawn Hannity, prefers the term “besmirched.”
Question
November 2nd, 2012
9:33 am
People put down Obama because he was a community organizer, How many of you would give up a six figure job he could have gotten as a Harvard Grad and worked as a Community Organizer?
Its fair not to like his policy, but putting him down because he was a community organizer is stupid and Ignorant.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
9:33 am
Sorry, Partisay, but I will be steadfast in defending America against those who wish her ill or actively work against her. That would include Obozo-supporting Democrats, who forfeited their right to be thought of as real Americans when they actively rooted for our troops to lose in Iraq, and who today are attempting to destroy our economic system and pervert our traditions and values.
Now get out there and Vote American!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
9:40 am
Your Nobel-winning Harvard grad wasn’t much of a community organizer. Anybody been to the south side of Chicago lately? My advice–travel in large, well-armed groups.
Matz
November 2nd, 2012
9:41 am
Why doesn’t Gov. Rmoney talk more about this Planet Kolob place? I have so many questions! Like, if he becomes the US President, does this earn him a position of importance on Kolob? Is it a wonderful, magical place, or is it an overrated shizzz hole? Will American textbooks finally contain chapters on this long-overlooked geographic sphere? Will we finally learn about the history, politics, and economy of Kolob?
Also, will Delta have regular flights there, and will we be able to “build our own” vacation packages on Planet Kolob by combining flight, hotel, and rental car rates? Can we wear our own undergarments, or will we be required to purchase their special ones upon arrival?
If Gov. Rmoney is going to be our leader, I think we need to know these things NOW.
Randy Ayn
November 2nd, 2012
9:42 am
I think Obama wins with a few states to spare. Romney’s recent dash for moderate positions (basically, Obama’s positions) has made this a closer election than it should have been. Still, a lot of people remember what he said when he was trying to secure the GOP nomination, where he had to move to the right of Gingrich, Perry, Paul and Santorum in order to win. Now, in Georgia, that’s a popular place to be, but parts of the country that are a little saner don’t necessarily agree. I. mean, we have Paul Broun and Tom Price and only a few states can boast nuttier reps than those guys.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
9:47 am
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said in a statement Friday the jobs data is a “sad reminder” of the state of the economy. Earlier, the Labor Department said 171,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate was 7.9% in October. “Today’s increase in the unemployment rate is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill. The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office, and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work.”
Partisay
November 2nd, 2012
9:48 am
Lil Barry…my father voted democrat & voted for Obama. He also spent a year of his life (366 days to be exact) sitting in a POW camp in Germany starving to death. As a 20 year old, he weighed 90 pounds when he was liberated. Spent 8 months in a hospital when he got back to USA just to be able to walk out of the hospital. Had medical problems the rest of his life because of those experiences.
But according to you, he “forfeited his right to be thought of as real American.”
Hmmmm. NIce. If he were still here today and you stood in front of him and told him that to his face, well, that would be real fun to have watched!
You are a perfect, pathetic example of someone that bashes America. So do you think of all Vets that vote democrat in that manner? Wow. My guess is that you do….
Richard
November 2nd, 2012
9:49 am
For the most part, a lot of you need to calm down and realize that your life isn’t going to change much based on this election.
To Romney supporters: Obama’s reelection isn’t resulting in this complete obliteration of capitalism and a toal government takeover of your money.
To Obama supporters: Romney’s election will not result in the government throwing your grandma off a cliff and seizing your uterus.
On the day after election day, you’re going to wake up and go to the same job you had the day before. Four years later, we’re going to whine about the same issues we’re talking about today.
I remember four years ago when people said if Obama was elected, Israel would no longer exist, the terrorists would kill everyone, there would be a total government takeover of health care, taxes would exponentially rise, and the immigrant Mexican army would breed us out of America. Still waiting on any of that.
Calm down people. No matter who gets elected, don’t expect him to make your life any better. If you don’t like your life, fix it yourself.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
9:50 am
Why doesn’t Gov. Rmoney talk more about this Planet Kolob place?
————
Why doesn’t Obozo talk more about his savior having risen from the dead, or healing the sick by laying on of hands, or loaves and fishes appearing from nowhere?
BW
November 2nd, 2012
9:51 am
Kyle
You already picked the incumbent during the showdown between yourself and Jay…any change in the fundamentals that led you to that choice?
Partisay
November 2nd, 2012
9:51 am
Well said Richard.
Randy Ayn
November 2nd, 2012
9:53 am
Jeez, Richard – what a buzzkill.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
9:53 am
I’m sure we’re all very impressed, Partisay. Did your Dad root for our troops to lose in Iraq, like the leadership of the party he supported?
Liz
November 2nd, 2012
9:55 am
Whoever wins. Either way the Americans lose.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
9:57 am
I remember four years ago when people said if Obama was elected, Israel would no longer exist, the terrorists would kill everyone, there would be a total government takeover of health care, taxes would exponentially rise, and the immigrant Mexican army would breed us out of America. Still waiting on any of that.
Need any further proof that obozo supporters are nitwits?
Israel no longer exists as an ally, the terrorist killed everybody at a US embassy, obozocare, the costs of regulations are being passed along as energy and health care taxes, immigrants are getting more jobs than US citizens are.
ragnar danneskjold
November 2nd, 2012
10:00 am
Romney 308 electoral votes, 52.8% popular vote
Obama 230 electoral votes, 46.3% popular vote
Fringe candidates 0 electoral, 0.9% popular vote
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
10:00 am
My father in law is 87, joined the Navy at 17 in 1942. Voted for Reagan twice. He voted against W twice. He used to say “the W administration makes the Nixon team look like Boy Scouts.”
He voted for McCain in 2008. Is voting for Obama in 2012 based for the most part on Clinton’s speech at the Dem convention.
Americans can read through the Romney incessant BS and it is sickening.
AmericanSam
November 2nd, 2012
10:01 am
President Obama will win a much-deserved second term with 303 (that’s my best prediction) Electoral Votes.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
10:02 am
Richard, three words for you:
Supreme Court Justices
Cherokee
November 2nd, 2012
10:08 am
Supreme Court justices seal the deal for me too. If you value freedom, you sure don’t want more Scalia’s and Thomas’s on the Court.
DannyX
November 2nd, 2012
10:08 am
“Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2700 LV 2.0 46 51 Romney +5″
Gallup also has the unemployment rate at 7.0%.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
10:09 am
“Simply put, the President’s policies have not produced jobs. During his time in office, 14.7 million people were added to the food stamp rolls. Over that same time, only 194,000 jobs were created—thus 76 people went on food stamps for every one that found a job,” says Senator Jeff Sessions, ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee. “This is a product of low growth. Post-recession economic growth in 2010 was 2.4%, and dropped in 2011 to 1.8%. This year it has dropped again to 1.77%. Few, if any, net jobs will be created with growth of less than 2%.”
Had enough?
Cherokee
November 2nd, 2012
10:10 am
But the employment figures out today should also ensure an Obama victory – about 300 electoral votes. Sorry, cons, but you have four more years to scream about the Muslim Socialist Nazi Kenyan in office…
Loy
November 2nd, 2012
10:10 am
Richard my life have not change yet but if you put Mitt in charge it will.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
November 2nd, 2012
10:17 am
Loy, how will your life change if Romney is elected?
Realistically, not using some Obama /DNC exaggerations.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
10:24 am
Cons, on the bright side, Geithner may be gone in a second term.
please, please, please…..someone offer that man a ton of cash to come work for them.
Partisay
November 2nd, 2012
10:24 am
“I’m sure we’re all very impressed”
Glad you are impressed that he almost died and suffered for the rest of his life for your freedoms.
Now for your question, no, he did not root for our troops to lose in Iraq. He just didn’t think they should have been over there fighting.
Any other questions?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 2nd, 2012
10:27 am
I believe your God, Shawn Hannity, prefers the term “besmirched.”
Finn, I didn’t know that, as I watch/listen to him very little, you must be a regular viewer/listener.
BTW, my God is in heaven, where I will be going, in spite of Rev e rand Joseph Lousy’s prediction that I will go to heck, just because I am white. I’m guessing that if Obama is reelected, the Rev will move up to a more prominent role in national affairs than giving the benediction at the inaugural. Maybe Barry will appoint him Sec of Contraceptive and Abortive Rights Emeritus, at the same time he appoints his Sec of Business.
zeke
November 2nd, 2012
10:28 am
Hopefully Romney in one of the largest landslides in history! We must be rid of all socialists, liberals, progressives, commies and racists in government! Pelosi, Dodd, Reid, Shumer, Frank, Clyburn, Rangle and the other democrat left wing trash!!
southpaw
November 2nd, 2012
10:28 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrdeyMNZW88
Q: In what direction was Granny going in between the left turn and going over the cliff?
A: FORWARD!!
That realization will help Romney squeak by.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
November 2nd, 2012
10:31 am
someone offer that man a ton of cash to come work for them.
Not a chance in business. After what he has contributed to improving the stagnant economy, no businessman in his right mind would want the tax cheat Tim Geithner. Maybe a government job or one at a liberal think tank.
VM
November 2nd, 2012
10:32 am
I am Hoping for a Romney WIN
Partisay
November 2nd, 2012
10:35 am
LIl Barry – speaking of questions, I noticed you failed to answer mine. So I will ask it again.
Do you think of all Vets (and let’s just add former POW’s) that vote democrat in that manner?
It’s really just a simple yes or no answer.
JamVet
November 2nd, 2012
10:37 am
This time next week, Mitt and Paul will be looking for work in their beloved private sector.
No more Uncle Sam haters, trickle downers and chickenhawks in the White House, thank you very much.
The most interesting aspect of this election is whether deprved pigs like Joe Walsh and Alan West get kicked to the curb, as well.
Better luck in 2016, neocons…
Or maybe 2020…
Or maybe 2024…
Or maybe….
(LOL!)
Georgia
November 2nd, 2012
10:39 am
Prediction? Yeah, I gotta prediction: PAIN! (for Romummy, the burned out carcass of an overcooked turkey.)
The unelectable creep shoulda paced himself. Debate1 was all he had, but boy, wasn’t he good for an hour and a half? Wasn’t he? Wow! Snaps for Romney!!!!
Seems a shame.
Electoral College
November 2nd, 2012
10:40 am
“Sorry, Partisay, but I will be steadfast in defending America against those who wish her ill or actively work against her. ”
What exactly does that “defending” consist of, a made in China US flag magnet on your car?
bu2
November 2nd, 2012
10:41 am
Romney wins by a narrow margin. Ohio and Florida have been hit so badly and their recovery so slow that the undecideds there go to Romney much the way Reagan turned a close race into a landslide. NC and VA return to the Republicans and Mormon volunteers help turn out the Romney vote in Colorado. Romney’s familiarity squeaks out a win in NH. That comes to 279.
Several states will be very close and whoever wins will get less than 300 electoral votes.
rosemary
November 2nd, 2012
10:41 am
as another ‘non-american’.. let me just say …yes I do believe a lot of you deserve Romney.. but obama’s is going to win .. and you will just have to fester for another 4 years ..
Your standing in the world went up a few notches when Obama got into office.. no quick fixes.. you need Obama for the next 4 years .
bu2
November 2nd, 2012
10:43 am
And we will still have gridlock, because the Republicans ran some idiots and will fail to win back the Senate. It will still be 51 or 52 Democrats.
Dusty
November 2nd, 2012
10:45 am
Is there anybody left over at Bookman’s blog? Seems they all came here just to be disagreeable.
Really does not matter. But it is vital that Romney win this election.
Obama has raised the national debt to 16 trillion, the greatest deficit this country has ever experienced. Romney has experience in finances, in business affairs where he made decisions, and the experience of running an entire state.
Obama’s record shows little more than inexperience and failure. He has not made America proud, debt free, inspired or employed. For the sake of our country, I have already voted for Romney and hope that others will use their heads instead of rabid propaganda when they make their decision about the next president.
MANGLER
November 2nd, 2012
10:48 am
I’d like to see this exact article, word for word, pop up over on Jay’s blog.
I’d be curious to see what the vote tallies were for the same story, word for word, but on an opposing blog. Would there be a difference or no?
Care to try?
WOW
November 2nd, 2012
10:50 am
bu2:
Have you seen the unemployment rate in Ohio? It is one of if not the lowest in the country. They have the highest right/track wrong track #’s of any swing state. Which is why there hasn’t been a poll out showing Romney leading there.