Poll Position: Who will win the presidency?
The day is almost upon us. It’s time to declare.
After a very long election season, we’re a few days away from learning whether Barack Obama will be re-elected or if Mitt Romney will replace him. Which way will it go?
Who will win the presidency?
- Obama with a couple of states to spare (458 Votes)
- Romney by just a few electoral votes (367 Votes)
- Romney with a couple of states to spare (295 Votes)
- Obama by just a few electoral votes (270 Votes)
- Obama with 325+ electoral votes (185 Votes)
- Romney with 325+ electoral votes (184 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,759
Loading ...Now, you can find any number of data points to support your desired or predicted outcome. National polls, state polls, battleground polls, early voting totals, absentee ballot requests, TV ad spending, campaign stops by the candidates and their surrogates — all point to a tight race, and any can be used to explain why Obama will win or Romney will be victorious. In such a close race, with hardly anyone still undecided and likely to vote, it’ll probably come down to which side’s base is more enthusiastic, and which side’s get-out-the-vote efforts or “ground game” is more effective.
I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen. The nearby poll for this week’s Poll Position offers a range of possibilities for you to register a strong to moderate to narrow win for either candidate. Feel free to be more specific in the comments as to which swing state will go to each candidate.
As for me …
I’ll make my prediction next week!
– By Kyle Wingfield
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273 comments Add your comment
commoncents
November 2nd, 2012
8:19 am
A Nielsen-
We’re voting for president of the US, not pres of the world. Additionally, I’d wager the US has done more for the world than whatever country your from. Chances are, we’ve done more for your country than your country has done for itself.
Go ask the UN to help. Hell, maybe Obama can run for president of that. I hear the Middle East loves to negotiate with him…
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
8:20 am
Alcohol is bad for your system so switch to what Tiberius uses – crystal meth.
Where do you think he gets that euphoric world devoid of all facts and reason?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
8:21 am
Nate Silver who has Obama at 80.8% likelihood
It was at 74 just this past Monday. But we have the weekend Republican desperation money ad blitz to contend with.
ByteMe - Got ilk?
November 2nd, 2012
8:21 am
I wonder where the 35+ votes for a 325+ win are coming from? Is LSD really that common now?
fair and balanced
November 2nd, 2012
8:22 am
Democrats win and here is why:The GOP takes its marching orders from Grover Norquist, Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh. Bill Clinton is spending every waking minute either campaigning and explaining the issues to the electorate or working on his Global Initiative. Jimmy Carter is here in Atlanta working on global health care initiatives. His grandson exposed what goes on behind closed doors when Romney speaks to his base and when Romney explained his true objectives and feelings about the 47%. By contrast George Bush has been living the good life out of sight and is today speaking behind closed doors in the Cayman Islands to wealthy investors on how to invest off shore.His former henchmen like Dan Senor, Dick Cheney and Karl Rove keep advising Romney on how to cast false allegations on Obama and on phantom enemies like Vladmir Putin hoping to stir up the base.
More news comes out that the Romneys increased their wealth by tens of millions of dollars due to Obama’s auto bailout funds with investments in auto parts suppliers like Sensata and Delphi. Both companies have used their new found profits to pack up, fire American workers and reopen their factories in China. Romney hides all this with a phony blind trust and slanders GM and Chrysler saying they are shipping American jobs to China.
Of course we would know a lot more about Romneys offshore investments, role in Bain, phony blind trust and profits from the auto bailout if he would disclose ten years of taxes. His wife says “you people got all you need” dismisively to the voters judging her families numerous conflicts of interest.
Obam inherited the same economic conditions as Herbert Hoover and turned the economy around without a Depression, employment is back to 2008 levels, real estate is coming back, interest rates are still low and the stock market is back where it was in 2007, and Obama inherited three live wars which he is successfully bringing to a conclusion (Unless you believe the unfounded GOP rumors that Al Quaida is resurgent).No other President faced such a challenge -NONE!
The above are sufficient grounds to vote for Obama and the Democrats in Congress and trust Obama will continue to do what is best for the country all American workers and not just the top 1%.
JDW
November 2nd, 2012
8:25 am
I am guessing that Obama wins between 281 and 303 EV’s…CO, VA and OH remain the main wildcards. I am also sticking with my original thought that the Senate remains 52 or 53 Dems. I think the House will shift toward the Dems by a few say 3 to 7 seats.
I see where the RCP trend line has now moved back to Obama at +.1 overall and that is before several more positive results from yesterday. Given that Romney’ support in the South is overwhelming I think that has a tendency to skew his overall results. For example one of the Gallup Polls that had Obama trailing by 6 also showed Romney leading only in the South and behind in all other geographies.
That said this one that is so close there could be some serious surprises…we may not really know until late in the week.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
8:26 am
I’m going all Benghazi, not matter who doesn’t like it.
The lib media this morning has released a “timeline” and in that “timeline” they arw calling the bravery of Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty a “rescue mission” as though they did not tell them to stand down and instead authorized it. No mention of the abandonment of these two Patriots, I guess obama could not find a way to take “credit” and pat himself on the back for it.
Some things are just too depraved to even comment on, so I won’t.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 2nd, 2012
8:27 am
stands, I think Nate Silver is usually on target (not always), but I don’t think you can punch in numbers each and every time to account for subtle nuances in play this year, especially in particular states. For instance, if you take Iowa and their historical ventures into early voting, Democrats wipe the floor with Republicans in early and absentee voting turnout, while the Republicans do the opposite on election day – including 2008. Not so this year. Democrat voters way down, GOP voters way up. Could they all of a sudden be switching voting preferences? History would say probably not, especially given that there is no historical significance to this election as there was in 2008. Same with Ohio. Obama’s win margin there in 2008 has been virtually wiped out with early and absentee voting, yet we still have election day ahead when GOP-ers traditionally vote.
Now it’s possible that trends are changing due to the proliferation of early voting, so none of this is cast in stone, but there is no indication that 2008 was nothing more than an aberration and isn’t likely to be repeated in 2012 (or possibly ever – unless we get a female nominee at some time).
H.E. Pennypacker
November 2nd, 2012
8:27 am
I could not help myself so I went to Fox News and Drudge web sites last night to see how they are coping with the move away from their candidate. They are going down swinging in an attempt to portray the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy as a post apocalyptic dystopia completely neglected by a campaigning Obama.
Nice touch.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
8:28 am
Here’s a poll question–how much can the Obozo administration fudge today’s employment numbers and keep a straight face?
Goldie
November 2nd, 2012
8:28 am
Obama/Biden 2012 — Moving FORWARD!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
8:30 am
tell em, Fair and Balanced!
Has GHW Bush done anything much since leaving office? Besides golf and yachting?
carlosgvv
November 2nd, 2012
8:31 am
Barry – 6:04
I guess that bad mood is because your dog lost last night’s fight in the trailer park.
Aquagirl
November 2nd, 2012
8:32 am
So I’m not to take any analysis from anybody but myself in order to form my opinion of what will happen
What part of “not mentioning it’s not your opinion and it’s copied verbatim” was unclear to you Tiberius? Were you one of those kids who had your mommy intervene when you got busted plagiarizing school papers and then claimed you didn’t know it was cheating?
It’s amazing I have more respect for a Breitbart contributor’s personal property than you or James. But that’s the flip-floppy ways of modern conservatism for ya. Lecture everyone else on how they should be producers, not freeloaders…..while handwaving away freeloading.
H.E. Pennypacker
November 2nd, 2012
8:32 am
U.S. added 171,000 jobs. Unemployment at 7.9%.
JDW
November 2nd, 2012
8:33 am
The detail from that Gallup 10/15 poll….
“Obama is winning the West (+6), the East (+4), and the Midwest (+4). The only region he’s losing is the South. But he’s losing the South, among likely voters, by 22 points.”
Since then the polls have moved more in Obama’s favor if the regional trends hold the key states should move toward Obama.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
8:34 am
Numbers are out. Unemployment at 7.9%
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
8:35 am
U.S. Added 171,000 Jobs in October
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
8:35 am
The detail from the Gallup 10/28 poll -
Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2700 LV 2.0 46 51 Romney +5
Loy
November 2nd, 2012
8:36 am
Things are getting better. USA USA USA.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 2nd, 2012
8:38 am
“Numbers are out. Unemployment at 7.9%” “U.S. Added 171,000 Jobs in October”
So the one thing you’re avoiding posting, Finn, is that the unemployment rate went UP last month.
Isn’t it amazing what happens when you include every state’s figures into the mix . . .
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
8:41 am
Two-thirds of those who have found employment under President Obama are immigrants, both legal and illegal, according to an analysis that immigration has soaked up a large portion of what little job growth there has been over the past three years.
Comprende?
obozo’s lawn care service.
JDW
November 2nd, 2012
8:41 am
This won’t hurt especially if people read the revisions….
“The U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs in October, according to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report. The unemployment rate is 7.9 percent.
According to the report, employment rose in professional and business services, health care and retail trade. Hurricane Sandy had “no discernible effect” on the employment data for October, the report added. The revisions for August and September are:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +142,000 to +192,000, and the change for September was revised from +114,000 to +148,000.
Skip
November 2nd, 2012
8:42 am
America just isn’t as crazy as the cons would like to believe, Obama in a squeaker.
WOW
November 2nd, 2012
8:43 am
My feeling is that the Presidents small, but steady lead will hold in teh Electoral College with him winning at least 281 electoral votes. I don’t think anyone truly knows who will win CO or VA (my count has Romney winning both). OH is going Obama, so it really doesn’t matter. There is no evidence that Romney can win Iowa and the ground game in PA and NV are just too strong for Romney to win without being ahead in the polls leading up until election day.
Senate may have some wild cards, it will be interesting to see if Bob Kerrey can win NE with all the late Republican endorsements. Indiana may be a surprise as well.
JDW
November 2nd, 2012
8:43 am
@Whiner…if you win the overall by winning the South +22 and losing everywhere else it doesn’t do you much good now does it?
cc
November 2nd, 2012
8:45 am
“The probability of an Obama re-election ignites a firestorm of denial, hate, and vituperation among the fools who voted twice for George W. Bush.” indicating that George W. Bush was a far better president than Obama has been.
anthony676
November 2nd, 2012
8:45 am
Dear A Neilsen, as a father of a US Marine, my son defends the very liberty and freedom in this greatest nation on earth for people like yourself to enjoy, while you spout out such inconceivable nonsense about foreign politics and the poor. Perhaps your warped thinking would change should you decide to actually put on the uniform and serve our beloved land. Then maybe you would understand that the US does not conquor but liberates!!
BuckeyeInGa
November 2nd, 2012
8:49 am
President Obama will win because the Buckeye state is the biggest deciding factor. I don’t see Romney taking that state especially after the issues he’s been having with the UAW and Chrysler corporation in the past week.
stands for decibels
November 2nd, 2012
8:50 am
Yep, the job numbers are obviously good for the nation, but to keep it on-topic, obviously they don’t hurt Obama’s prospects with but two working days to go.
/drive-by
Junior Samples
November 2nd, 2012
8:51 am
If the Redskins win their last home game before election day, then the party in power gets to hold on to the White House. If the Redskins lose, no matter how close the game, the opposition party takes over.
The Redskins are playing the Panthers, at home.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/03/redskins-rule-ideal-for-monday-night/
Aquagirl
November 2nd, 2012
8:54 am
Wingfield – man up and take a position.
America, land of microwave brownies and I WANT IT NOW!!!
Sheesh.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
November 2nd, 2012
8:54 am
7.9% is “good for the nation? Welcome to Obozo’s new normal, and to a country populated by folks educated in rapidly worsening public schools.
Rush
November 2nd, 2012
8:54 am
Watergirl winning minds and hearts…..are you delusional or what watergirl? Do you think your little snide remarks are going to change anything? Head on over to Bookie man’s blog as he has a new one calling your name. Your fellow leftist are waiting for you.
8Ball
November 2nd, 2012
8:55 am
Give your heads a shake…. from the rest of the world.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 2nd, 2012
8:55 am
An administration that would lie and change it’s story, despite evidence to the contrary, about the treason it committed against our mission in Libya wouldn’t lie about a jobs report, now would it?
Del
November 2nd, 2012
8:56 am
I’m certain Nielsen only uses the initial A of his/her first name for a reason.
JDW
November 2nd, 2012
8:57 am
@Junior…that one would dovetail nicely with Kyle’s World Series prognosticator that has already picked Obama.
Loy
November 2nd, 2012
8:58 am
Most people work in lawn care know is American. It did change an the last two years because of the argument about illegal immigrants. I know because I deliver packages. So why lie about something you have no facts. That’s what racist people do lie an hope people won’t check the facts.
Rush
November 2nd, 2012
8:58 am
Who needs nationally recognized polls when we are fortunate enough to hae WOW predict everythign for us right here on the AJC. Do we have to pay extra for this expert analysis? LOL
Rush
November 2nd, 2012
9:01 am
Loy the package deliverer……the fact checker.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 2nd, 2012
9:03 am
Joseph Stiglitz: “Romney’s plan is based on magic”
How frickin’ true.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
9:05 am
At least if Romney gets elected, we probably will not have to pay him a salary? Maybe send a little extra towards Sandra Fluke’s way? Oh by the way, where’s Bill? My badd, don’t start that again?
trailerparkted
November 2nd, 2012
9:06 am
I’m a lifelong republican whom will be voting for Obama, bain uprooted my family and I in 1998 when my job was shipped to India, moved to GA in 1999 while things have been tough they have been well. I’ll never trust Mitt to do anything but protect his Millionaire Boys Club!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 2nd, 2012
9:06 am
“I’m looking mighty forward to watching you eat your own crow next Wednesday.”
Barack is NOT the best, I will be eating no crow next week, no matter who wins. I have been consistent in my prediction that this was always a toss-up election that will be decided by less than 20 electoral votes, and I don’t see any change in that assessment.
I will be disappointed if Obama wins re-election, but not depressed about it, as there will still be a GOP-controlled House and a dysfunctional Senate in place for at least the next 2 years to keep his lame-duck tendencies in check.
trailerparkted
November 2nd, 2012
9:07 am
@Ireport, I’m still in Iraq searching for WMD’s!!!
Aquagirl
November 2nd, 2012
9:07 am
Head on over to Bookie man’s blog as he has a new one calling your name. Your fellow leftist are waiting for you.
But I might miss a one-liner from Tiberius!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
November 2nd, 2012
9:10 am
“But I might miss a one-liner from Tiberius!”
Not surprisingly, I’m OK if that happens . . .
H.E. Pennypacker
November 2nd, 2012
9:12 am
Gotta run, but I will leave you with this blurb from the Economist’s endorsement of Obama yesterday.
Economy: Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don’t believe most of what he says.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
November 2nd, 2012
9:13 am
trailerparked@9:07 – I doubt that, you probably could not find your way out of your own driveway!