Poll Position: Who will win the presidency?

The day is almost upon us. It’s time to declare.

After a very long election season, we’re a few days away from learning whether Barack Obama will be re-elected or if Mitt Romney will replace him. Which way will it go?

Who will win the presidency?

  • Obama with a couple of states to spare (458 Votes)
  • Romney by just a few electoral votes (367 Votes)
  • Romney with a couple of states to spare (295 Votes)
  • Obama by just a few electoral votes (270 Votes)
  • Obama with 325+ electoral votes (185 Votes)
  • Romney with 325+ electoral votes (184 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,759

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Now, you can find any number of data points to support your desired or predicted outcome. National polls, state polls, battleground polls, early voting totals, absentee ballot requests, TV ad spending, campaign stops by the candidates and their surrogates — all point to a tight race, and any can be used to explain why Obama will win or Romney will be victorious. In such a close race, with hardly anyone still undecided and likely to vote, it’ll probably come down to which side’s base is more enthusiastic, and which side’s get-out-the-vote efforts or “ground game” is more effective.

I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen. The nearby poll for this week’s Poll Position offers a range of possibilities for you to register a strong to moderate to narrow win for either candidate. Feel free to be more specific in the comments as to which swing state will go to each candidate.

As for me …

I’ll make my prediction next week!

– By Kyle Wingfield

Find me on Facebook or follow me on Twitter

273 comments Add your comment

cc

November 2nd, 2012
5:52 am

Only four days left before the end of the leftists’ dreams!

I can hardly wait!

It will be President-Elect Romney after Tuesday, and President Romney in January, 2013.

GJ

November 2nd, 2012
6:04 am

Please not Romney. Like we really need a liar with $450 million dollars running around as the President.

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 2nd, 2012
6:04 am

I’m thinking Americans outnumber Democrats and President Romney wins.

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 2nd, 2012
6:05 am

That’s right, GJ, what we need is four more years of a failed community organizer who never worked an honest day in his life.

cc

November 2nd, 2012
6:09 am

“a failed community organizer”

a LYING, MUSLIM SYMPATHIZING, failed community organizer . . .

A Nielsen

November 2nd, 2012
6:13 am

Honestly as an non American, You deserve Romney. Just like you deserved Bush the torturer.
It is not that I do not like America but your foreign politics and the millions of poor in the world that YOU have done little to nothing for is why I do not wish you well.
It would be great for the world if USA reinvented the moral high ground but I do not see that coming, much more likely that such an reinvention will come from the third world!

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 2nd, 2012
6:18 am

The U.S. government spends more on international aid than any other country.

Don’t let a little thing like facts get in the way of your America-hating, A Nielsen.

cc

November 2nd, 2012
6:24 am

A Nielsen:

Your comment is exactly the reason I advocate U. S. withdrawal from the U. N., and booting the U. N. out of this country. We are never given the respect that we have earned through aid given other countries, and foreign countries soon forget American blood that was shed defending or freeing them. France serves as a shining example of the later.

cc

November 2nd, 2012
6:27 am

A Nielsen:

“as an non American”, you don’t even have a dog in this fight.

Aquagirl

November 2nd, 2012
6:27 am

Don’t let a little thing like facts get in the way of your America-hating

I see Lil’ Barry is up early winning hearts and minds.

Thomas Heyward Jr

November 2nd, 2012
6:29 am

Obama or Romney……Roughly 25% of the Population will pick a continuation of Bush W’s policies of undeclared wars, indefinite detection without due process, kill-lists, warrentless easedropping, militirized police-state, warfare/welfare MIC morally-bankrupted society.
.
The other 75% of decent Americans will possibly consent to be governed in such an inhumane fashion……………………………..but then again………..maybe we won’t.
.
Time will tell.

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 2nd, 2012
6:30 am

Aquagirl attacks me for correcting someone erroneously bashing America.

No surprise–liberal.

cc

November 2nd, 2012
6:32 am

Thomas Heyward Jr:

Exactly the response I’m expecting and prepared to handle . . .

[...] Day finish lineNECNObama, Romney, Launch Final Campaign BlitzVoice of AmericaDaily Beast -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -Laramie Boomerangall 12,135 news [...]

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right

November 2nd, 2012
6:45 am

I like the way early voting is going with less Democrats and more Republicans. Given that historically more Republicans vote in significantly higher numbers on election day, if the trend continues we’ll be say President Romney early on November 7th.

But the margin will still be less than 20 electoral votes, as I have predicted from day one no matter who wins.

I also predict MSNBC will need a new lineup of hosts, as there heads will collectively explode if this happens.

Aquagirl

November 2nd, 2012
6:49 am

Of course Obama will win Kyle. You voted for Gingrich, didn’t you get the e-mail?

http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingrich-email-obama-going-win-174518235.html

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right

November 2nd, 2012
6:49 am

A Neilsen, why is America responsible for the plight of “the millions of poor” around the world?

Serious question that I’d appreciate an answer to.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
7:05 am

“The other 75% of decent Americans will possibly consent to be governed in such an inhumane fashion……………………………..but then again………..maybe we won’t.”

With any luck you Paulistas will just leave.

A bigger bunch of sore losers and whiners we have never seen before.

the ability of the national survey

November 2nd, 2012
7:32 am

STATUS UPDATE ON GALLUP ELECTION POLLING following “Super Storm Sandy” has compromised the ability of a national survey to provide a nationally represenative assessment of the nations voting population.
After the highly photographed Obama Christie meeting, the suffering has returned bigtime to New Jersey, Long Island and NYC. 3.8 million without power,no gasoline,not enough food or heat. As the President goes back to campaigning the populace goes back to suffering.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

November 2nd, 2012
7:37 am

I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout.

We ain’t stayin home this year.

Aynie Sue

November 2nd, 2012
7:38 am

The probability of an Obama re-election ignites a firestorm of denial, hate, and vituperation among the fools who voted twice for George W. Bush. Why can’t some people learn from their mistakes? Willful ignorance and blind hatred makes them susceptible to the wiles of a smooth-talking snake oil salesman pedaling another round of voodoo economics.

Listen up, ya’ll! Better follow the lead of Governor Christie and Mayor Bloomberg: abandon your stinking, sinking ship!

James

November 2nd, 2012
7:39 am

The latest Politico battleground poll, released earlier this week, shows Romney with a massive 19-point lead over Obama among suburban voters. Surprisingly, it’s actually one point higher than his lead among rural voters. Obama leads among urban voters by 29 points. In 2008, Obama won the suburban vote by 2 points. The 21-point swing away from him makes his reelection very difficult.

Obama’s approval rating among suburban voters is deeply underwater. Just 42% approve of the job he is doing, against 57% who disapprove. A staggering 52% disapprove strongly. Romney has a net 23 approval rating among suburban voters, 59% approving with 36% disapproving.

Over the past 30 years, no one has won the presidency without winning the suburban vote. Bill Clinton’s successful campaigns were built on getting strong support from suburban voters. To some extent, Obama inherited much of the goodwill Clinton earned with this important voting block. Yet, in just four years, Obama seems to have squandered that.

As the suburbs go, so goes the nation. Today, at least, the suburbs are going with Romney.

@@

November 2nd, 2012
7:42 am

I’m not one for making predictions. If, however, Obama DOES win, it’ll be a natural disaster.

schnirt

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
7:43 am

Aynie Sue, Chris Christie will still be voting for Romney, never fear. Appreciating the response of a President to a disaster when your state will need much in the way of Federal dollars is not an endorsement of any kind.

And Bloomberg is irrelevant outside of NY.

Oh, and didn’t vote for Bush. Either time.

Aquagirl

November 2nd, 2012
7:49 am

As the suburbs go, so goes the nation. Today, at least, the suburbs are going with Romney.

Hey James, the only thing worse than a spammer is a lazy plagiaristic spammer.

Citizen of the World

November 2nd, 2012
7:51 am

Even Republicans who think deep down that Obama will win will probably say that Romney will win, because in their world, which is devoid of facts and reason, “wishing makes it so.”

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

November 2nd, 2012
7:52 am

The most accurate pollster in 2004 and 2008 -

Ohio, Rasmussen Reports 48 50 Romney +2

Just sayin…

stands for decibels

November 2nd, 2012
7:55 am

I’m not asking you to make a case for your preferred candidate, just to tell us what you think is going to happen.

I went with Obama with a coupla states to spare because that’s how most every poll compiler has it.

Obviously there are means by which it goes Romney’s way, but they all involve either a) some significant change in voter sentiment in the next two working days, or b) most of the polling just getting it wrong. It’s a possibility, just not a probability at this point.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
7:55 am

Aquagirl, just because you don’t like the conclusion doesn’t mean you should jump down James’ throat. He’s only doing what Kyle asked for – the reasons WHY you think the particular candidate will win.

Which, btw, I’ve noticed you have failed to do in all three comments you have posted.

Ivan Cohen

November 2nd, 2012
7:55 am

@ cc: How soon they forget…..France as an ally during the American Revolutionary War coupled with American and French troop involvement in the Battle of Yorktown. France shed blood here first, America shed blood on French soil during World War II. No tit for tat here, everything is even steven. Then to tell someone as a non-American, they don’t have a dog in this fight. (the elections) Yet America will be inserting itself in the elections of other countries to protect “it’s interests”. Which no American politician, Democrat or Republican has ever really defined via a state of union address or fireside chat.

stands for decibels

November 2nd, 2012
7:58 am

…and as to how much of a probability, I have seen Obama’s situation compared to an NFL team carrying a 3 point lead with a few minutes to go, or to an MLB team carrying a one-run lead going into the 9th with a healthy closer on the mound.

We’ve all seen those situations result in a reversal of fortune for the team with the lead, so I am not assuming anything.

AU Liberal in ATL

November 2nd, 2012
8:00 am

I’m voting for Lil Barry because I like morons and Dubya can’t run again.

kevin

November 2nd, 2012
8:00 am

Thousands are wishing that Mitt win. Those that do will be in for the longest low down President America ever had. He has nothing in your interest and while we still are facing racism, you all need to take a good look at Katrina and Sandy……….no Mitt will not come your aid nor this state because Georgia has wounded itself by continuing to express how it support racism instead of trying to correct itself. Those of you who think you will gain something by Mitt, well you will but not for you personally, it will be for Mitt, his friends and to continue to support jobs overseas where he has a vast interest. Mitt is not or no where near Presidential Material and his lies shows it. He will not win and all of you will be sad by Wednesday morning.

EJ Moosa

November 2nd, 2012
8:02 am

More important is who are the losers We all are.

People, you really do need to vote out each and every incumbent. If they have not solved the problem by now, they ARE the problem.

James

November 2nd, 2012
8:03 am

Aquagirl, tell that to Biden

AU Liberal in ATL

November 2nd, 2012
8:03 am

Chris Christie’s vote is irrelevant because his state will vote for President Obama.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
8:04 am

stands, I’m looking at early voting numbers rather than polling.

One, because the majority of polls in question have oversampling of Democrats trying to mimic 2008 turnout (which I don’t believe will happen), and two, because voting trends of actual and historical trump polls.

This is not the Obama-mania election of 2008; more in the mold of a traditional election where both candidates are equally inspiring and uninspiring to their respective parties. And if I were Obama, I wouldn’t like the cry for help out of Pennsylvania yesterday, especially with a possible depressed vote out of Democrat stronghold Philly due to the storm while western PA (more fertile GOP territory) has no issues.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
8:07 am

kevin, at some point you have to face the reality that drinking hard liquor this early in the morning is not good for you.

flagboy?

November 2nd, 2012
8:08 am

I think Obama wins Ohio and because of that, wins the presidency.

The fact that Obama and Romney are the choices is more worrying than anything else really.

As for A Neilsen . . . so, what country do you call home? And what has that country done for the “millions of poor” across the world?

Aquagirl

November 2nd, 2012
8:08 am

He’s only doing what Kyle asked for– the reasons WHY you think the particular candidate will win.

You emphasized the wrong word….Kyle asked why YOU think the particular candidate will win. Not Why some Breitbart writer thinks the particular candidate will win while not mentioning it’s not your opinion and it’s copied verbatim.

If you’re all for people ripping off other’s intellectual property (I can’t believe I used that for a Breitbart source) then China is ready when you are.

Somehow I think your pining for my opinion on who will win and why is a bit forced. Obama’s up in most polls, especially the swing states. Incumbents usually have an advantage. If you want to talk it to death and pretend you’ve got the inside analysis go for it.

stands for decibels

November 2nd, 2012
8:10 am

Tib @ 8.04, that’s fine, and if that’s your means by which Romney threads the needle go with it.

It’s just not the way I’d bet, is all, particularly since the kind of presumptions people make about how overall turnout affects the outcome tend to come from the gut rather than actual analysis. (I’m too lazy to look it up/link to it, but Nate mentioned the other day that when he runs his 538 model with 2004-type turnouts, the result’s basically the same. FWIW.)

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
8:10 am

“Yet America will be inserting itself in the elections of other countries to protect “it’s interests”.”

Really, Ivan?

A recent historical cite would be enlightening.

Jack

November 2nd, 2012
8:11 am

We have Obama as president because not enough registered voters bothered to vote in 2008.

stands for decibels

November 2nd, 2012
8:11 am

(I can’t believe I used that for a Breitbart source)

As penance, you should go outside and drunkenly scream at imaginary rapists.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

November 2nd, 2012
8:13 am

Romney will be lucky to even break 200 electoral votes.

mwuahahahahahahaha

Aquagirl

November 2nd, 2012
8:13 am

at some point you have to face the reality that drinking hard liquor this early in the morning is not good for you.

Every time I think Tiberius is beyond all redemption he busts out one-liners like this. :)

stands for decibels

November 2nd, 2012
8:13 am

I should mention, at this point, a national poll and $2.25 will get you a ride on the NYC subway when it re-opens for business.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

November 2nd, 2012
8:14 am

“You emphasized the wrong word….Kyle asked why YOU think the particular candidate will win. Not Why some Breitbart writer thinks the particular candidate will win while not mentioning it’s not your opinion and it’s copied verbatim. ”

OK, got it.

So I’m not to take any analysis from anybody but myself in order to form my opinion of what will happen, and I’m not to use any of that analysis even if I happen to agree with it in my responses. :roll:

H.E. Pennypacker

November 2nd, 2012
8:18 am

All the pollsters who analyze state by state races mathematically have the race breaking materially towards Obama. The most popular of these is Nate Silver who has Obama at 80.8% likelihood.

It comes down to if you trust the relatively new method of aggregating all available data points or do you like to cherry pick data points to fit your narrative like voter enthusiasm or rely upon partisan polling organizations like the GOP Rassmussen…..or best of all listen to Dick Morris and his predicted GOP landslide.

Either way, someone is going to be disappointed Tue. night.

ByteMe - Got ilk?

November 2nd, 2012
8:18 am

Right now, it looks like 303 on the high side and 282 on the low side for Obama. I’m not counting Omaha, though, since that one’s hard to predict and no one is campaigning or polling there.