Could this election turn on the effects of a mega-storm?
My thoughts and prayers this morning are with people in the path of Hurricane Sandy and the other storms converging on the Northeast Corridor. My sister lives in Brooklyn, and a number of my friends from my WSJ days live in New York City, Washington and elsewhere. One estimate I heard on the radio this morning was that 50 million to 60 million people stand to be affected. Folks, that’s 16-19 percent of the country’s population. Let’s hope it doesn’t end up as the super-storm so many meteorologists have predicted.
In the political world, both presidential campaigns are adjusting their campaign schedules to account for the storm, out of concern for the safety of residents and staffers in the places lying the storm’s path. It’s an old adage that Election Day weather has the power to change election outcomes. But we’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case this time, given that both campaigns are acting similarly (as opposed, for instance, to John McCain’s unilateral, ill-fated suspension of his campaign in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis) and given that we’re still eight days away from Election Day.
The effect on the Electoral College vote is also likely to be minimal, in large part because the states in the storm’s path are almost certain to go for President Obama whether turnout is light or heavy. The one possible exception is Pennsylvania, where light turnout in the Philadelphia area potentially could play in Mitt Romney’s favor in somewhat of a toss-up state.
But it got me thinking: What if we were talking about a blizzard in the Midwest? Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and even Michigan and Pennsylvania (and Minnesota??) may be where this election is decided. Can you imagine the uproar if the election were to be decided by a narrow margin, with exceptionally low turnout in some of the most crucial states?
I can’t recall weather having that kind of impact on such a consequential election in my lifetime or the history I’ve read. Am I forgetting or missing something? And would such an event de-legitimize an election result in your mind?
– By Kyle Wingfield
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129 comments Add your comment
Bullseye
October 29th, 2012
1:12 pm
Hurricane Mittens roars ashore. 47% of the population has been wiped out.
Now back to regular programming.
stands for decibels
October 29th, 2012
1:12 pm
Why we vote on Tuesdays.
Kyle Wingfield
October 29th, 2012
1:12 pm
JDW @ 11:49: This is what I was thinking of. Kevin Drum is about as liberal as it gets, so this isn’t “spin.”
Beyond The Middle of the Road
October 29th, 2012
1:13 pm
“f Obama wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote the righties will scream bloody murder.” It was wrong in 2000 and it would be wrong again in 2012. The electoral college may have been a good idea way back when but it’s obsolete and needs to be trashed. Let everyone’s vote count the same.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
When you haven’t got a lick of common sense, just lie like a lib to make your point, right, JDW?
JDW
October 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
@Tiberius…”Why do you libs have to lie to try to make points in an argument?”
KING: Including disaster relief, though?
ROMNEY: We cannot — we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids. It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we’ll all be dead and gone before it’s paid off. It makes no sense at all.
If you are having trouble understanding the English language maybe you could find someone in your neighborhood you haven’t pi$$ed off yet to read it to you.
iBS Aplenty
October 29th, 2012
1:17 pm
JDW, you’re behaving like a quintessential Dem tool. Using your logic, Romney doesn’t like ANYBODY because he’s looking to reduce the size of many federal programs, i.e., the federal government. It’s clear from the interview that Romney’s speaking in BROAD terms about the federal burden, and importantly, the burden transfer to subsequent generations. The interviewer, on the other hand, was simply attempting to achieve a media “gotcha” moment. Even a fifth-grader could’a correctly sized that up.
You’re bigger than than this, JDW. But then I thought the Dems were bigger than simple vote-buying via federal government expenditures.
JDW
October 29th, 2012
1:19 pm
@Kyle..problem is Mitt got outside the bounds of that by saying…
“Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that’s the right direction. And if you can go even further and send it back to the private sector, that’s even better. Instead of thinking in the federal budget, what we should cut — we should ask ourselves the opposite question. What should we keep? We should take all of what we’re doing at the federal level and say, what are the things we’re doing that we don’t have to do? And those things we’ve got to stop doing, because we’re borrowing $1.6 trillion more this year than we’re taking in.”
He is not talking about a one time tradeoff of expenses…he is broaching the idea that Disaster Relief responsiblity (like Medicare/Medicaid in his opinion) should fall on the states.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:19 pm
“It was wrong in 2000 and it would be wrong again in 2012. The electoral college may have been a good idea way back when but it’s obsolete and needs to be trashed. Let everyone’s vote count the same.”
Uh….you, Sir, are wrong. If Romney wins pop but loses electoral vote than, as far as Im concerned thats just the way it is. I wouldnt like it but the electoral college is there for a very good reason.
Instead of smoking pot during 11th grade govt class you shouldve been hitting the books, MISTER!
whitec477
October 29th, 2012
1:20 pm
Romney’s ever-changing positions on …
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 29th, 2012
1:20 pm
Have you ever noticed that any change limiting the awesome Federal Government suggested by any one, like turning disaster assistance back to the states, is immediately pounced on by the Little Dem Hens, telling us the sky is going to fall. Every disaster ever known to have occurred or that ever might occur, apparently can be averted, ameliorated,or blunted by the Fed Government.
However, there seems to be only disaster that never seems to enter there thinking, insolvent government.
Kyle Wingfield
October 29th, 2012
1:22 pm
JDW @ 1:19: I agree he went beyond what I said. I’m just explaining why I remembered it the way I did: Cantor’s remarks were part of the broader conversation — the context, if you will — at that time.
Joe The Plumber Too
October 29th, 2012
1:23 pm
Just my luck, I get my first copycat (back on page 1) and it has to be a bedwetter without a brain. Get your own name little fellow or at least post something halfway intelligent.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
1:23 pm
I’m sorry with that “lie like a lib” comment. I try not to be redundant in my thoughts.
JDW, look up the word “interrupted” in the dictionary someday.
Maybe then you’ll understand reality.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:23 pm
Womb to tomb democrats.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:25 pm
AHEM, excuse me good Sir for talkng while you were interrupting.
JDW
October 29th, 2012
1:27 pm
@iBS Aplenty…”It’s clear from the interview that Romney’s speaking in BROAD terms about the federal burden, and importantly, the burden transfer to subsequent generations.”
If that were Romney’s concern he would not have a plan that will clearly add, unnecessarily to the deficit by cutting revenues FURTHER and spending unrequested monies on defense, after all can’t we make do with spending more than the next 15 spenders combined?.
The real problem is that Romney simply says whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear at the time, no matter what the topic. Romney doesn’t have a plan or a philosophy, other than maximizing the bottom line. That works fine when you are a CEO, no points off for pandering or lying, but as President it would be a disaster waiting to happen.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 29th, 2012
1:28 pm
I think we need Romney desperately, but if he loses the EV and wins the popular vote, I will move on. Those are the rules we live by, The Constitution, and only the Dems whine when the rules go against them. The EC rule is there for a purpose, and has gotten us to this point.
JDW
October 29th, 2012
1:29 pm
@Kyle…got it, I agree that Cantor’s remarks set that stage.
Don't Tread
October 29th, 2012
1:30 pm
“I thought the Dems were bigger than simple vote-buying via federal government expenditures.”
No, not really…they have been doing that since before my father was born – they’re just more blatant and arrogant about it now. They’re well into “the end justifies the means” territory now.
Back on topic…The weather shouldn’t be a factor in the elections – otherwise we’re headed down a slippery slope (as if we weren’t headed down a million other slippery slopes). “I didn’t win because it was raining outside!” “It was too hot!” “It was too cold!” “Where are my lawyers?”
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
1:30 pm
it’s still trying to blow my whole freaking house down.
Find a box made out of a better grade of cardboard?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
1:31 pm
t’s still trying to blow my whole freaking house down.
Tell yer mom you aren’t paying her anymore rent if the roof blows off.
Kyle Wingfield
October 29th, 2012
1:34 pm
Here’s another take on possible election impacts. I had not thought about Romney’s HQ being in Boston.
RW-(the original)
October 29th, 2012
1:34 pm
Our biggest looming disaster is our debt. How are we gonna disaster relief our way out of that one?
/drive by….
stands,
Obama is sending the Big Dog into Minnesota so maybe it really is tightening up out there.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
1:35 pm
“If that were Romney’s concern he would not have a plan that will clearly add, unnecessarily to the deficit by cutting revenues FURTHER and spending unrequested monies on defense,”
Both myths debunked previously.
cc
October 29th, 2012
1:43 pm
I still want Obama to answer for Benghazi. Four Americans fought for their lives over a seven hour period of time. This event was viewed in real time in the White House. Their requests for assistance were ignored. Not even the 130 gunship was dispatched to take out the mortar. You can’t tell me that Obama didn’t make the call to refuse the requested assistance.
These people died serving a country whose administration failed them miserably at the end of their lives.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 29th, 2012
1:48 pm
hsn
The War in Iraq and Afghanistan was approved by a bi-partisan Congress, nuff said. Whether they worked on not, whatever their costs, they were initially approved off by our government and the American people. So, people lost interest and the wars did not accomplish all that we hoped for, live with it, and quit Monday morning quarterbacking. Whatever you want to know about those wars, has been discussed and investigated thoroughly. We had a 9/11 Commission spend years debating 9/11. Where is the Benghazi gate commission?
All we want to know about Benghazi is what happened. We lost people there and do not know what happened. Why have we been given false narratives and etch a sketch like stories. Who decided not to help those people? Why was there inadequate security? We have a right to know!
JDW
October 29th, 2012
1:51 pm
@Kyle…Boston is likely to be a mess. I have talked to DC, Philly and NJ today and it is already bad with the surge due tonight. Power impact could reach Chicago and according to one projection I saw ourselves.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
1:54 pm
storm webcam links. the best one appears to be the first one.
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/29/webcams_on_sandy/
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:55 pm
Capt OBlunder has spoken with all affected Mayors, and as Alexander Haig once stated, “I am in charge here”.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:56 pm
“and according to one projection I saw ourselves.”
One projection projects the sky will fall at approx 2:39 a.m. eastern time.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
1:59 pm
DC has setup addl telepompters thru out the city in anticipation the many, yet to come, speeches to be given by The Grand Poobah.
stands for decibels
October 29th, 2012
2:01 pm
Obama is sending the Big Dog into Minnesota so maybe it really is tightening up out there.
So I see he is.
Then again, apparently Romney and/or Ryan might be popping in for an appearance as well, so it’s hard to say who’s faking out whom.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
2:01 pm
the sky will fall
iggy’s science-free zone. must be a conservative?
JDW
October 29th, 2012
2:02 pm
@Tiberius…”Both myths debunked previously”
Only for those residing in Tiberiusville or afflicted with Romenesia…the rest of the universe still exists.
From Politifact…
“Finally, there is the assessment from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan organization focused on debt reduction. They estimate that Romney’s plan will increase the deficit by a total of $2.6 trillion by 2021. Jeff Vanke, senior policy analyst at the committee, says the Romney campaign consistently declines to describe how they will broaden the tax base and compensate for lower tax rates.”
http://www.politifact.com/deficit-fact-check-1/
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
2:05 pm
JDW obviously missed the last few debates.
Or can’t understand the English language very well.
The lies come so easily from his keyboard.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
2:09 pm
Psssssst . . . JDW, it’s not just about tax rates regarding revenues.
Think it through, even if it might be a strain for you.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
2:17 pm
Which is why the term “Politi-”fact” is such a joke when using it to reference the actual truth.
iggy
October 29th, 2012
2:19 pm
President Oblamer will have his Hurricane Sandy Action Plan ready by 10/31/12 at 9:00PM.
omg
October 29th, 2012
2:20 pm
Does this mean ACORN and other liberal organizations can use mass gov transits to go get people and take to the voting booths and point out which name the should cast their vote?
cc
October 29th, 2012
2:23 pm
“President Oblamer will have his Hurricane Sandy Action Plan ready by 10/31/12 at 9:00PM.”
I don’t doubt that at all. When do you think he will answer the questions about allowing four Americans to die in Benghazi absent any assistance from his corrupt administration?
ohmy
October 29th, 2012
2:24 pm
its likely that the dust bowl (more of ecological phenomenon/disaster) along with the economy and prohibition of course affected the 1932 election: FDR and Hoover
JDW
October 29th, 2012
2:24 pm
@Tiberius…”Which is why the term “Politi-”fact” is such a joke when using it to reference the actual truth.”
I guess in Tiberiusville you give the Pulitzer’s to Faux News or Red State
Ad
October 29th, 2012
2:28 pm
Romney’s tax plan reduces taxes over 10 years by $4.8 trillion. He says he’s going to eliminate SOME deductions to make it revenue neutral, but there are only $1.2 trillion per year taken in deductions per year. So, if you eliminate ALL deductions (at a 33% tax rate), you can only bring in $4 trillion more in taxes over 10 years. His plan won’t work. We know the uber-rich will get their tax cuts, so who do you think will wind up paying for it? Hello, middle-class!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 29th, 2012
2:41 pm
Gee, JDW, a bunch of liberal newspaper folks giving an award to a liberal news site.
I’m shocked.
Nice to see you couldn’t debunk my earlier point, too.
Why is it that the simpletons on the left can’t seem to understand that parsing and cherry-picking comments to make their points are just lies?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
2:43 pm
President Oblamer will have his Hurricane Sandy Action Plan ready by 10/31/12 at 9:00PM
No, W’s not in office anymore. The new guy actually knows a bit about preparation.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 29th, 2012
2:47 pm
, Romney wants to turn the FEMA thing over to the states. Now we have 50 FEMAs, all with duplicate personnel, duplicate head offces.
I thought you cons wanted smaller government and tax rates? Sounds like the “very” conservative Romney is setting you up for an expansion of government.
JDW
October 29th, 2012
2:48 pm
@Tiberius…”a bunch of liberal newspaper folks giving an award to a liberal news site.”
Dude you are seriously damaged…get help soon
cc
October 29th, 2012
2:49 pm
Ad – Yes, it sure was . . .
cc
October 29th, 2012
2:53 pm
“No, W’s not in office anymore. The new guy actually knows a bit about preparation.”
Obama was certainly “prepared” to deal with Benghazi, wasn’t he? He was prepared to watch those four Americans die while refusing them aid, wasn’t he? He won’t talk now because it’s important for him to “get it right”. When do you think he’ll have it right?