How the NLCS might decide the election — and why Obama supporters should root for . . .

Tonight, while President Obama and Mitt Romney debate foreign policy, the deciding Game 7 of the National League Championship Series will pit the San Francisco Giants against the St. Louis Cardinals. If you want to know which candidate has the best chance of winning the White House, you might want to watch the baseball game — and root for the Cardinals if you’re a Romney fan, the Giants if you support Obama.

Because, apparently, the baseball gods like to dabble in politics every four years.

There have been 26 World Series played in presidential election years — every election year since 1908. In 22 of these years, one candidate won all the electoral votes of states represented by the World Series teams**. And that candidate has won the presidency in 20 of those 22 years.

That’s a 91 percent record in those 22 years, and 85 percent overall. (Yes, I know, — it’s still a pretty small sample. Work with me here.)

Need an illustration? Look no further than 2008, when the World Series contestants were the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays. Obama won both Pennsylvania and Florida — and the presidency.

This year’s American League champ has already been crowned: The Detroit Tigers await either the Cardinals or the Giants. Michigan is still classified as a toss-up state, but I’d be very surprised if Obama lost it. That means all rests on:

1. Missouri, which Romney appears to have sewn up; and

2. California, a mortal lock to be in Obama’s column.

So, if the Giants win tonight, Romney might as well pack it in. History would have us believe he’s toast — although it’s worth noting that the most recent exception to this rule was not too long ago. In 2000, Al Gore lost the election despite sweeping the World Series.

If the Cardinals win tonight and give us a likely presidential split decision, however, it’s either man’s race. In the four years in which the two candidates split the World Series states, the winning team’s state went for the White House winner twice and the White House loser twice. But take heart, Romney fans: There have been six presidential years in which Missouri had at least one team in the World Series, and the candidate who won Missouri won the White House in all six years. Michigan’s candidate, by comparison, is just 2-2.

So, how many newly minted Cardinals and Giants fans do we have out there?

– By Kyle Wingfield

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** This includes six World Series (2000, 1988, 1956, 1952, 1944, 1936) in which both teams hailed from the same state. There were also two World Series in which only one state was represented. In 1992, the Toronto Blue Jays were one contestant; the Atlanta Braves were the other, and Bill Clinton won Georgia that year. In 1924, the Washington Senators were one participant but D.C. didn’t yet have any electoral votes; the New York Giants opposed them, and Calvin Coolidge won New York state.

40 comments Add your comment

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

October 22nd, 2012
3:24 pm

Romney wins MI and MO, cause he has Big MO on his side.

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

October 22nd, 2012
3:30 pm

Kyle, I think of this election to be much like 1980, Phillies played the Royals. Reagan won both PA and MO, course he won all but 49 electoral votes. I guess there is no way, Romney wins CA, so if the Cardinals lose, we can’t have a 1980 election.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
3:40 pm

Here’s another one Kyle. NBC Sports reported that the winner of the FLA ST – MIA game has predicted who would win FLA’s 29 electorial votes for the last 6 elections.

‘88, ‘00, ‘04 MIA won and the Repubs won FLA.

‘92, ‘96, ‘08 FLA ST won and the Dems took it.

In case you missed it Sat PM FLA ST 33 – MIA 20.

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

October 22nd, 2012
3:52 pm

Pizzaman, I am sure that somewhere there is a study that shows the candidate that ate more funnel cakes and hotdogs on camera lost more than the candidate who ate corndogs and cheese grits.

Isn’t there a study that shows the taller candidate (Romney) always wins? We will have the battle of the studies.

Kyle Wingfield

October 22nd, 2012
3:54 pm

Pizza and Rafe: It’s all just something to talk about.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 22nd, 2012
3:54 pm

You Cons are reaching. Obama in a landslide.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
3:57 pm

Finn, please.

Obama may still win this one, but it will not even be close to any landslide. 20 electoral votes separating them at best.

For once in your life, please try reality.

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

October 22nd, 2012
3:58 pm

As the chart below shows, in the 28 presidential elections between 1900 and 2011, 18 of the winning candidates have been taller than their opponents, while 8 have been shorter, and 2 have been of the same height. The claims about taller candidates winning almost all modern presidential elections is still pervasive, however. Examples of such views include

From Wikipedia

So, 64% of the time the taller candidate does win! Romney wins! Can we move on now?

Road Scholar

October 22nd, 2012
4:01 pm

Rafe: That’s Cheesey Grits!

If GT beats BYU (Mormon) after beating Boston College (Jesuit), will GT be accused by conservatives of having a “war against religion”?

They BOTH suck

October 22nd, 2012
4:01 pm

Finn

Tiberius is probably right on the election in regards to electoral votes. I have stated before that I will not be surprised to see Obama win the EC, but lose the popular vote.

Romney’s average margin of victory in the red states will probably be much higher than Obama’s margin of victory in the blue states, with the “swing states” will being close.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
4:02 pm

Someone once told me that if the ‘Dancing with the Stars’ winner is either black, or a slinky blonde, the Democrats gain the advantage during that year’s elections.

(OK, not really, but it makes about as much sense as the World Series theory . . .) ;)

They BOTH suck

October 22nd, 2012
4:03 pm

Rafe

Why get upset at Pizzaman? He did no different than you did with your post @ 3:30.

RW-(the original)

October 22nd, 2012
4:03 pm

I’d suffer through four more years of Obama before I’d root for the Cardinals.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
4:04 pm

Fact Check: Gore did not loose. The SC stopped the recount, declared Bush the winner. In a later recount, Mar 01, sponsored by several large newspapers across the country,every legal vote cast was counted and Gore actually won. But too late. But it did give the Repubs two distinctions: the only President to resign and the only President appointed by the Court.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
4:11 pm

I’m a little confused. Did I start some sort of battle by repeating something I heard on College Game Day? No hate or discontent intended.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
4:13 pm

“Fact Check: Gore did not loose.”

Fact Check: Gore did lose.

“The SC stopped the recount, declared Bush the winner.”

The Supreme Court stated that differing standards in different counties violated the equal protection portion of the U.S. Constitution and said that all counties and standards needed to be the same. Gore only wanted to use a looser standard in just 3 Democrat-majority counties. And the FL SOS declared Bush the winner once Gore withdrew is recount challenge, not the SCOTUS.

“In a later recount, Mar 01, sponsored by several large newspapers across the country,every legal vote cast was counted and Gore actually won.”

Only using the standard where the slightest impression, no matter how shallow, was counted as a valid vote. Three other recounts by independent organizations using less “creative” standards gave Bush the win.

td

October 22nd, 2012
4:15 pm

Finn McCool (The System isn’t Broken; It’s Fixed)

October 22nd, 2012
3:54 pm

You Cons are reaching. Obama in a landslide.

Us cons may be reaching but you are dreaming. If Obama wins then it will be by the skin of his teeth. Romney has the better chance of the landslide.

I want the 269-269 tie and heading for the HOR’s to make you libs go absolutely nuts.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
4:19 pm

“I want the 269-269 tie and heading for the HOR’s to make you libs go absolutely nuts.”

That would be fun, but then wouldn’t the Senate get to pick the VP?

Romney/Biden? :(

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

October 22nd, 2012
4:33 pm

Pizzaman, I was not criticizing your post! Good observation, just pointing out there are a gazillion “studies” out there showing claiming different things have influence on the vote.

BTW: Tiberius corrected you, Bush did win by a small margin after the recounts. Also, the Civil Rights Commission never found one voter, who testified that they had been “disenfranchised” in spite of how Sharpton and Jackson whined nightly about the poor folks who couldn’t vote, because a police car was parked too close to the polls.

RW-(the original)

October 22nd, 2012
4:37 pm

That would be fun, but then wouldn’t the Senate get to pick the VP?

It’s even possible for Biden to be the only vote that counts.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
4:37 pm

Actually, Tiberius, those Newspapers sponsored 2 recounts. The first was of the Counties the Dems disputed. Palm Beach, Broward and Dade. And guess what. Bush won by 526 votes, the exact vote the FLA Sec o St declared. The second recount counted every vote considered legal by that County. Additionally,they counted 1900 absentee ballot challenged by the Dems. Gore won that count by 1226. By challenging those absentee ballots the Dems really shot themselves in the foot. They thought, I think, that all absentee ballots were cast by Military personnel and all Military personnel voted Republican. They were sorely mistaken on both points and it cost then the WH.

Just the facts as known by this retired Military who votes absentee in FLA. BTW: never been asked for an ID voting absentee. How come your guys didn’t close that loophole. Could id be…..?

td

October 22nd, 2012
4:40 pm

Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
4:19 pm

Yes, the Senate would get to select the VP but I think each state would get 1 vote. That would make for some interesting results for Blue Senators in Red states and the state went for Romney and they are up for re election in 2014. If Biden was VP then Romney just needs to send him to Tibet for 4 years.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
4:44 pm

Rafe, TB: the SC stopped the recount and the Sec St of FL verified the original 526 vote victory. That ended it. The press just wanted to know. I found the absentee thing fascinating. The Dems should have counted them. They “COULD” have made a difference. But shoudda, woodda, couldua only works in the movies.

Vote Early, Vote Often. Avoid voter ID, vote absentee!

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
4:44 pm

Pizzaman, you may NOT cherry-pick the votes and counties you want to re-count. That is the essence of the SCOTUS ruling.

In addition, the recounts I wrote about were ALL ballots in Florida, not just the disputed counties / absentee ballots.

And it’s really a shame that someone who once swore to defend the Constitution doesn’t know what’s in it.

Dusty

October 22nd, 2012
4:55 pm

Kyle,

Don’t you worry your lil ‘ol head over who is going to win the game and the election. I’ve got it all figured out.
\
In the first place, the BRAVES should be in first place. If that blasted umpire hadn’t messed up the rules in their last game, they would have won, fair & square (Everybody knows that !). Which means they would be in the World Series.. Which means they would win again. Yes sir!

Considering the BRAVES are from GEORGIA (where the finest & smartest people live) and where live the finest Republicans in the world, Romney will win like a tsunamii over a sandbar. Nothing to it. President Romney!- good good good!!

So I’ll not watch Mr. (What’shisname)Schieffer toss little goodies to Prez. Obama tonight. Doesn’t matter. I know who is going to win the big game in a couple of weeks. Just wanted to let you know so you won’t worry. .

Georgia

October 22nd, 2012
5:00 pm

So you’re saying they have a designated candidate rule in the World Series?

td

October 22nd, 2012
5:00 pm

Dusty

October 22nd, 2012
4:55 pm

LMBO. You tell everyone the facts.

getalife

October 22nd, 2012
5:00 pm

San Fransisco is great town so I pick the Giants and our President.

In two weeks, mitt will be gone and we can all breathe a sigh of relief that our country will survive another four years.

Allowing the gop back in power after their performance last time is just plain ignorant and begging for another disaster.

I suggest the right start acting like Americans if they ever want to win the WH again.

That ladies and gentleman is called hitting it out of the park and our President will do the same in the last debate to win the debate seines. 3-1.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
5:04 pm

Too bad the octopus that picked the World Cup winners died.

They BOTH suck

October 22nd, 2012
5:05 pm

“You tell everyone the facts.”

Loose with the facts, yes.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
5:10 pm

Sorry Tiberius. You are partially correct. The recount the SC stopped was of 3 counties. The rest of the state was not disputed. My point was the Dems cost themselves the election. BTW: I’m more aware than most what’s in the Constitution and the UCMJ. One doesn’t get very far in the Service if you dont know what it’s all about.

Pizzaman

October 22nd, 2012
5:12 pm

Sorry Kyle. Enjoyed the sports reference. Didn’t mean to open the recount bag of ….!

Dusty

October 22nd, 2012
5:17 pm

td 5:00

Thank you. We know who the winners are. Go Braves!

Kyle Wingfield

October 22nd, 2012
5:19 pm

No worries, Pizzaman.

markie mark

October 22nd, 2012
5:47 pm

Kyle, I honestly think this column/blog is an indication that the political exhaustion is setting in….we have just about run outa topics…..

markie mark

October 22nd, 2012
5:50 pm

Get, all the coverage I have seen was that the 2nd debate was a toss-up….you may believe that Obama won, but thats only because he looked so bad the first time. There were no major gaffes on either side, and I dont see anybody saying a winner (I will give you this…I saw where msnbc said Obama won it on “points”…..wow…..)

jconservative

October 22nd, 2012
6:07 pm

To me the big question mark in this election is what impact early voting had on the election. (The past tense is on purpose.)

independent thinker

October 22nd, 2012
6:28 pm

Since the Romney family, advisers and Bain have bought up the voting machine company with a history of faulty and nonsecure machines that will be used in Ohio and other key states, the NLCS is irrelevant.
Of course if you feel you can totally trust Romney this is just left wing conspiracy garbage.

Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed

October 22nd, 2012
7:13 pm

“Since the Romney family, advisers and Bain have bought up the voting machine company with a history of faulty and nonsecure machines that will be used in Ohio and other key states”

Oh, Holy Crap!

Not THIS fantasy again.

There are no more security issues with electronic voting machines than with paper ballots. If both are secured properly, neither can be tampered with.

You are neither “independent” nor a “thinker”.

Hillbilly D

October 22nd, 2012
7:57 pm

Baseball has enough problems with His Royal Dud-ness, Bud Selig running things without mixing in the mess that is current politics. I do have to hand it to Bud, though, he’s done the one thing I never thought possible; he’s made Bowie Kuhn look competent.