Is the election coming down to four states?
There’s been a lot of theorizing on the comments threads about the Electoral College prospects of President Obama and Mitt Romney. At National Journal, Major Garrett writes something that I find rather reasonable: The election increasingly is coming down to four states:
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
If those are the four states still being contested, where does each campaign stand with the others, and which states does each candidate have to win? Here’s Garrett again:
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn’t give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) — which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede — and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.
In other words, under this emerging scenario Ohio on its own could swing the election to Romney, but not to Obama, who would also need to win Iowa or Nevada. At the same time, this scenario means Romney doesn’t have to win Ohio — but Obama does; he can’t get to 270 with his current leaning/likely/solid states plus Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Two points:
1. Given Ohio’s traditional importance to GOP candidates — no Republican has won the White House without it — it’s surprising that Romney has a path to victory without the Buckeye State, but Obama can’t win without it. Of course, if even one of the other four gravitates toward Obama, Ohio would once again become paramount for Romney. Thus, all the recent campaigning in Ohio by both men.
2. The other three states are among the four traditional “first in the nation” primaries and caucuses, where Romney has been campaigning for well over a year at this point. On one hand, he’s been in these states for months and months — yet he hasn’t closed the deal in them. On the other, Obama won each of them by double-digits in 2008 (if you round the results to the nearest whole number) and is in danger of losing them this time.
Here’s how each state stands today according to the RCP averages (and where the momentum lies):
IOWA: Obama leads by 2.3 points (about half the lead he held just three weeks ago).
OHIO: Obama leads by 2.2 points (down from 5.2 points three weeks ago but rising over the past week).
NEVADA: Obama leads by 3 points (roughly where his lead has been for the past two months, but up over the past week).
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama leads by just 0.8 points (the closest that state has been since Obama took a head-to-head lead in early February).
– By Kyle Wingfield
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216 comments Add your comment
St Simons - we're on Island time
October 18th, 2012
11:16 am
cons, you know 2012 is demographically the end of the road for you.
win this last one fer the gipper, heheh
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
11:18 am
If it’s the end for conservatives, St. Simons, it’s because it’s the end of smaller, less intrusive government, the end of personal responsibility, and the end of American exceptionalism.
beam me up
October 18th, 2012
11:35 am
Kyle CONveniently dismisses Florida and Virginia, both of which are absolutley in the toss up column. The most recent poll of Florida (Zogby) has Obama up by 3 points despite being taken before the second debate. The PPP poll released three days ago had Romney up one point. Seeing as two polls right after the first debate had Romney up by three and four points, it is pretty clear that whatever bump he got from that debate is fading.
In Virginia, the latest poll has it tied. Obama has led there for almost the entire campaign with only one poll showing Romney ahead by two points immediately after the first debate from Rasmussen, which notoriously overstates Republican votes by virtue of methodology.
So, these are both probably in the same category as Colorado, though maybe slightly more favorable to Obama. Romney has no path to victory without Florida, none, and would have to run the table without Ohio. Obama can win without Ohio, Florida, and Colorado if he takes Virginia, Iowa, and Nevada. For Obama to win, he just has to take one of Ohio, Florida and Virginia plus a couple out of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa an New Hampshire. In fact, Obama could win without any of the big three (Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) if he won all of the others.
Bottom line, the electoral map is still significantly more difficult for Romney than it is Obama. The race is definitely closer, but Romney is behind. He is pretty much going to have to win Ohio to have a chance, and has no chance at all without Florida.
By all means
October 18th, 2012
11:43 am
Matz should vote for the team that reduces women to their lady parts and nothing more.
A pathetic Julia.
St Simons - we're on Island time
October 18th, 2012
11:44 am
If Republicans want to survive into the future, I would –
a) get your nose out of peoples bedrooms, churches, & Drs offices
b) realize that we don’t need to be able to blow up the world 50x over.
c) the vast overwhelming majority of the world’s population wants a
social contract with its government.
d) be fiscally conservative. (today’s Republican is not)
a lot of sane normal people would go for that. just trying to help.
St Simons - we're on Island time
October 18th, 2012
11:48 am
i hate to tell you, but Obama’s gonna win Fla & Ohio.
so now we have to move on & think –
how do we engineer a viable 21st century Republican pahhty?
because this one is plumb skeery.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
11:49 am
Never take advice on how to change your ways from someone who wouldn’t vote for you on a bet.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
11:52 am
St. Simons:
If Democrats want to survive into the future, they should –
a) allow Americans to choose their own health care
b) realize that deterrence through strength is our only viable option
c) realize that freedom and individual liberty is worth more in the end than cradle to grave government dependence
d) be fiscally conservative (today’s Democrat is not)
a lot of sane, morally decent people would go for that. just trying to help.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
11:53 am
i hate to tell you, but the whole country is moving toward Romney
so now we have to move on & think –
how do we engineer a viable 21st century Democrat pahhty?
because this one is plumb skeery.
Matz
October 18th, 2012
11:54 am
By all means,
Taking responsibility for their own lady parts makes a woman pathetic? Hmmm… good to know. Thanks!
So, what does that make a woman who turns over responsibility for her lady parts to untrained trogs like Todd Akins, who’s “knowledge” of the female anatomy and human reproductive process is based on random guesswork clouded by vague definitions of “asking for it?”
Just curious.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
11:55 am
“i hate to tell you, but Obama’s gonna win Fla & Ohio.”
And what are this weekend’s winning lottery numbers, St. Simons?
You know, ’cause since you’re so clairvoyant and all I figure you’d know them.
Dusty
October 18th, 2012
11:55 am
Well, I hope Americans are not as indecisive as our polls would suggest. This one is up. Then it is down. Who’s the next one going to crown?
This seems to entertain a lot of people and it is harmless enough.
But I hope that citizens will not just follow the crowd, but their own understanding of how we have been governed for the last four years. I find it unsatisfactory and will vote for a change. That means Romney.
Of course…………
I only speak for one woman, me! Every woman has her own mind and she will decide on who is best as far as she knows. Women are not loaded like coal cars and then pushed down the line. They think for themselves. I just wanted to remind any of you that think otherwise..
Dusty
October 18th, 2012
12:02 pm
Bruno,
Your 11:52 is so sound and practical it is astounding!!
How does it go? “Good thinking is hard to find?” Or something like that!!
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:03 pm
Never take advice on how to change your ways from someone who wouldn’t vote for you on a bet.
Ti–I’ve got a feeling that a lot of professed Dems are going to pull the lever for Romney once they’re in the voting booth given his strong polling numbers on who is better qualified to help the economy. Why vote for 4 more years of the same??
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:08 pm
In fact, Ti, I can see Matz now in that voting booth, secretly voting for Romney because she knows her economic prospects will be so much greater under Romney. Go, Matz!!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
12:14 pm
St. Simons: the vast overwhelming majority of the world’s population wants a
social contract with its government.
———
We didn’t get to be the world’s most powerful and successful country by being like everyone else. And I refuse to believe that Americans have become so pathetic that they want to turn over their lives to government.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:19 pm
Your 11:52 is so sound and practical it is astounding!!
Actually, Dusty, I was only trying to help St Simons see how silly her 11:44 post was, but thanks for the compliment.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 18th, 2012
12:31 pm
How out of touch is the 1%?
Pity poor Rajat Gupta. The former managing director of McKinsey Consulting and member of the board of directors of Goldman Sachs, was convicted in June on charges of insider trading. Prosecutors are seeking a sentence of 8 to 10 years. But Gupta’s lawyers are arguing that the mere fact of Gupta’s fall from grace is punishment enough!
Kyle uses the same lawyers as that guy.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 18th, 2012
12:33 pm
d) be fiscally conservative (today’s Democrat is not)
Just like a con to talk up fiscal conservation until they get their guy in office. Then all that is out the window.
JDW
October 18th, 2012
12:36 pm
@Tiberius…”You think maybe because Massachusetts is a deep-blue state maybe?”
I guess they were red when he got elected Governor…nope even more blue then…pssstttt I think it is because they believe in the old adage…
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me
Thulsa Doom
October 18th, 2012
12:41 pm
Bruno
Using fiscal conservative and democrat in the same sentence probably breaks some sorta law. How ya doing man?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
12:41 pm
“I think . . . ”
That would be your first time thinking on this blog, JDW.
cc
October 18th, 2012
12:42 pm
“cons, you know 2012 is demographically the end of the road for you.”
“If Republicans want to survive into the future”
“i hate to tell you, but Obama’s gonna win Fla & Ohio.”
“we’re on Island time”
I have no idea on which island you reside, but it most likely is the very remote “Island of Make-Believe” and is totally devoid of communication with the outside world.
Indulge your fantasies while you can. Election day and the end of your dream rapidly approaches.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:42 pm
Just like a con to talk up fiscal conservation until they get their guy in office. Then all that is out the window.
Sorry, Finn. My tune doesn’t change regardless of who is in office.
And speaking of tunes, here’s a little Trower for my buddy Jam if he pokes his head in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1g9Hs3rnd6s
MrLiberty
October 18th, 2012
12:42 pm
Yes, the state of the economy, the state of the failed wars in the middle east, the state of the failing and chronically-devaluing dollar, and the state of ignorance of the majority of the voting public as to the gross similarities of these two hand-picked Goldman-Sachs candidates. We are doomed.
PROUD NAVY VET
October 18th, 2012
12:43 pm
Gov. Romney has said many times government does not create jobs, but says he will create 12 million jobs if elected.
I understand Tagg Romney wanted to take a swing at our President because his dad didn’t fair so well at the debate and Tagg was upset because the President called his father a liar., per a radio interview Tagg did yesterday morning. A little note to Tagg:
Tagg, if there were no Secret Service agents around and you took a swing at the PRESIDENT, He’d kick your punk azz. Plain and simple. Oh, and your dad is a liar. MASSGAP (40 womens groups in Mass.) has said what happened. Your father lied with an audience of 6
5+ million Americans listening. David Bernstien, who was deeply involved with the entire process and he stated on world-wide television what took place. MASSGAP, they are the group that approached your father and Shannon O’bryan, the Democratic canidate PRIOR to the election, and Mrs. O’bryan signed a pledge first, pledging to seek out qualified women for government appoiontments. There were also forums PRIOR to the election discussing the very gathering of women to be propelled into government positions, again PRIOR to the election (did I say that already?). So how did your dad reach out to these groups as he said he did AFTER he was elected? They also said the first 19 appointments made were to men and your dad was called on it and then women were appointed. It has been said they were business associates who donated to your dad’s campaign. It’s going to be kind of hard getting out of this one. In the words of Ricky Riccardo, “Lucy, you got some xplaning to do”. Also, if your dad worked in business for so many years, why did he have to seek names of qualified woman? Didn’t he know any qualified women throughout the many years of his vast business experience? Did he not feel that the women he had dealings with were not up to it?
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:44 pm
Hey, TD, glad to see you. Have you made any picks for this weekend?? I need some winners. I murdered them on college football last Sat, then drew a blank on Sunday.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
12:47 pm
As the re-election of their Messiah becomes less and less likely, the libs are becoming more and more unhinged on this blog.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:48 pm
Some more Trower for Matz to help cheer her up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zAfcX-iT5M
Thulsa Doom
October 18th, 2012
12:49 pm
Bruno,
I was on a role but got my buttkickkng a couple Satdays ago on fsu/clemson weekend. Still way up for the year though. Haven’t looked at this weekend yet.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:50 pm
Tagg, if there were no Secret Service agents around and you took a swing at the PRESIDENT, He’d kick your punk azz.
NAVY VET–I think my bunny rabbit could take Obama down in a one-on-one……
Matz
October 18th, 2012
12:51 pm
Bruno,
Your spirit of optimism is inspiring. Bless your heart. Hey, is your lady still putting up with you? If so, you oughtta put THREE rings on her, to trap her and keep her. Heh… (http://d22zlbw5ff7yk5.cloudfront.net/images/cm-26717-2507efaa907c2a.jpeg) The ties that bind are sacred!
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:52 pm
Haven’t looked at this weekend yet.
Do me a favor and drop by on Fri night and we can compare notes. I’ve been owning it on the college side.
getalife
October 18th, 2012
12:52 pm
After the last two beat downs we get four more years of the gop not destroying our country againn.
Country first, not failed gop party first.
You deserve to lose.
Start acting like Americans and support the folks in Libya getting the terrorists.
Del
October 18th, 2012
12:52 pm
Democrat ignorance is certainly reflected in the 12:43. The party of irresponsibility has taken on the intelligence equivalent of its symbol.
Thulsa Doom
October 18th, 2012
12:52 pm
Libs sure seem to be talking the violence up now that their guy is trailing example navy vet.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
12:55 pm
You know getalife has nothing to say on the topic when he repeats the same thing over and over again.
Next he’ll be questioning our patriotism . . .
‘Cause that’s all he’s got.
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
12:55 pm
Hey, is your lady still putting up with you?
Still going strong, thanks. I took her to Atlantic City in August, Hilton Head in September, and Biloxi last week. She loves the spa treatment the casinos offer.
Hope all is well with you, beautiful. I’ll pass that picture along to her.
JDW
October 18th, 2012
12:56 pm
@Tiberius…”That would be your first time thinking on this blog”
Found this just for you…details of the Romney tax plan
http://www.romneytaxplan.com/
BTW I see you begging for lottery numbers a lot lately…you planning on that for your retirement?
Thulsa Doom
October 18th, 2012
12:58 pm
Bruno
I’ll try. Im going to be on the road but will take a look and maybe get the girl to drive while i tend to impodent stuff like gambling.
getalife
October 18th, 2012
12:58 pm
There is no patriotism from the cons.
You set a horrible precedent to freak out after a attack, refuse to unite to get the terrorists and attack our President instead.
cons are terrorists sympathizers.Period.
Del
October 18th, 2012
1:01 pm
“.Period.”
get, is that the reason your comments are so over the top this afternoon?
snoqualmiefalls
October 18th, 2012
1:02 pm
Sure lets talk about gaming the system folks….. especially folks like TBan.
Lets look at the Tea Peoples Republic of Arizona for instance and see how the TeaGop will succeed.
Lets look at what the largest county in Arizona has done to insure people, Latinos, show up to vote on the wrong day.
“The Miracopa County elections dept. mistakenly listed the wrong date of the upcoming general election on an official government document. The error appears on a document containing a voter ID card. In the corner of the document, it says November 6 in English but in Spanish it reads 8 de Noviember”. Scripps Media 10/18/2012
So this is a winning formula for the Tea people… Gotta love it.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
1:03 pm
“BTW I see you begging for lottery numbers a lot lately…you planning on that for your retirement?”
Already retired, JDW, and on my own terms, thank you.
And I’m not a liberal, so I don’t beg for anything.
JamVet
October 18th, 2012
1:03 pm
Hiya, gang.
Can only stay for a minute; off to Nebraska, family, Runzas, stopping by that hallowed stadium in Lincoln and generally eating and drinking too much!
Thanks, for the Trower, B. You rock, buddy.
I love my life and I’m so jazzed today, I don’t even have the energy to argue politics with Kyle’s gang of misfits. (j/k)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBoq8aoWB4E
Bruno
October 18th, 2012
1:04 pm
while i tend to impodent stuff like gambling.
I had to bust PB while we were in Biloxi last week. She played the slots while I played in a poker tourney. When I came looking for her on a break, I found her with a drink in one hand and a cigarette in the other while sitting in front of a machine. I told her that with a little more effort, she could take care of all 7 deadly sins in one night.
JDW
October 18th, 2012
1:05 pm
@Tiberius…”on my own terms”
Yours or Uncle Sam’s you old 47 percenter.
Thulsa Doom
October 18th, 2012
1:06 pm
Next he will be questioning our patriotism. Right on cue a moment later. Gawd that was funny.
getalife
October 18th, 2012
1:07 pm
del,
“It’s disgraceful that the Obama Administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks,” Romney added.
You will hear this quote in the next debate.
mitt should apologize and even his party said he was dead wrong for that.
mitt is not a leader. Period.
sharon
October 18th, 2012
1:08 pm
Can someone please explain to me how a survey of one to two thousand people can predict who is going to win a particular state. Polls are very, very misleading. When these polls are taken the demographics should be included. How many young, black, latinos, women, democrats, republicans were polled in the latest polls? Polls are used to disencourage and intimidate. All of this is nothing but overblown smoke. The only poll that counts is November 6th.