Is the election coming down to four states?
There’s been a lot of theorizing on the comments threads about the Electoral College prospects of President Obama and Mitt Romney. At National Journal, Major Garrett writes something that I find rather reasonable: The election increasingly is coming down to four states:
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
If those are the four states still being contested, where does each campaign stand with the others, and which states does each candidate have to win? Here’s Garrett again:
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn’t give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) — which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede — and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.
In other words, under this emerging scenario Ohio on its own could swing the election to Romney, but not to Obama, who would also need to win Iowa or Nevada. At the same time, this scenario means Romney doesn’t have to win Ohio — but Obama does; he can’t get to 270 with his current leaning/likely/solid states plus Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Two points:
1. Given Ohio’s traditional importance to GOP candidates — no Republican has won the White House without it — it’s surprising that Romney has a path to victory without the Buckeye State, but Obama can’t win without it. Of course, if even one of the other four gravitates toward Obama, Ohio would once again become paramount for Romney. Thus, all the recent campaigning in Ohio by both men.
2. The other three states are among the four traditional “first in the nation” primaries and caucuses, where Romney has been campaigning for well over a year at this point. On one hand, he’s been in these states for months and months — yet he hasn’t closed the deal in them. On the other, Obama won each of them by double-digits in 2008 (if you round the results to the nearest whole number) and is in danger of losing them this time.
Here’s how each state stands today according to the RCP averages (and where the momentum lies):
IOWA: Obama leads by 2.3 points (about half the lead he held just three weeks ago).
OHIO: Obama leads by 2.2 points (down from 5.2 points three weeks ago but rising over the past week).
NEVADA: Obama leads by 3 points (roughly where his lead has been for the past two months, but up over the past week).
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama leads by just 0.8 points (the closest that state has been since Obama took a head-to-head lead in early February).
– By Kyle Wingfield
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216 comments Add your comment
Mark
October 18th, 2012
8:16 am
@ td
October 17th, 2012
11:04 pm
You can’t stop the Train
October 17th, 2012
10:57 pm
I do not care how many Latinos come out or how many people that will not vote for a Mormon will stay home. It is the middle class suburban married white women with children that will decide this election.
Still playing the race card huh td?
MarkV
October 18th, 2012
8:23 am
Romney’s foreign policy ignorance, incompetence and blunders should make that issue quite decisive. He has not been able to formulate a single foreign policy that differs from the President’s except that he would do the same but better. Obama’s record to deal with al Qaeda speaks for itself.
And what has Romney to attack, at most? That the Administration waited with informing the public about the causes of attack on a consulate until the intelligence people were sure about them – for the whole 2 weeks! What a horror and damage! How could we survive that?
The emphasis on this nonissue is the best proof of Romney’s foreign policy weakness and desperation.
iggy
October 18th, 2012
8:26 am
We’ve already seen the real obama.
Devil ya know or Devil ya dont know.
carlosgvv
October 18th, 2012
8:35 am
In the past, I seem to remember Califorina being a “must win state”.
Why has this changed?
JDW
October 18th, 2012
8:39 am
WOW would you look at that…Romeny actually told the truth!
“For weeks many Beltway insiders had written off the Romney campaign as dead, saying the candidate had dug himself into too deep a hole with too little time to recover. However, with a month to go before ballots are cast, Romney has pulled even with President Obama, and the former Massachusetts governor credits his rejuvenated campaign to one, singular tactic: lying a lot.
“I’m lying a lot more, and my lies are far more egregious than they’ve ever been,” a smiling Romney told reporters while sitting in the back of his campaign bus, adding that when faced with a choice to either lie or tell the truth, he will more than likely lie. “It’s a strategy that works because when I lie, I’m essentially telling people what they want to hear, and people really like hearing things they want to hear. Even if they sort of know that nothing I’m saying is true.”
“It’s a freeing strategy, really, because I don’t have to worry about facts or being accurate or having any concrete positions of any kind,” Romney added.”
Or at least that’s what he would say if he did
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/12/14397013-chronicling-mitts-mendacity-vol-xxxviii?lite
RW-(the original)
October 18th, 2012
8:44 am
In the past, I seem to remember Califorina being a “must win state”.
Why has this changed?
It’s most assuredly still a “must win” state for Democrats, but it’s also kind of like Alabama playing Summerhour Middle School.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
8:52 am
MarkV: And what has Romney to attack, at most? That the Administration waited with informing the public about the causes of attack on a consulate until the intelligence people were sure about them…
————-
Not, that Obozo failed to contemplate that, on the anniversary of 9/11, in a Muslim country, there might be an attack on Americans.
Obozo: Idiot. Failure. Liar.
stands for decibels
October 18th, 2012
8:54 am
Kyle just clearly said this is tossup with the fundamentals favoring Obama slightly in the only count that matters, the Electoral College
which, for the record, is one of those reasons I continue to read Kyle–he is capable of just such rational analysis and clear-headed assessments, and not only do I welcome those from my ideological counterparts, I am glad to see more–shall we say, dug-in partisans?–at least exposed to such things, even if they may have a difficult time digesting them.
/drive-by
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
9:03 am
The administration didn’t “wait” to get the facts on their Benghazi failure. From the first day, they were blaming a YouTube video.
Obozo shot first and aimed later. Obozo lied.
zeke
October 18th, 2012
9:07 am
We must insure all liberals, socialists, progressives are removed from elected office! These ridiculous leftist morons are indeed a terminal disease and must be cured by voting them out of office! Goodbye OBAMA THE SOCIALIST!
zeke
October 18th, 2012
9:11 am
And don’t give me that old tired line that of racism! I would vote for J C Watts, Or Condi Rice in an instant! Not because they are black, but, because they are highly qualified and Obama is not! He has never had a real world job! Nothing more than a scum socialist community organizer! Palin was/is much more qualified than he is!
Road Scholar
October 18th, 2012
9:11 am
And if a frog had wings, they wouldn’t bump their a$$. Time will tell.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 18th, 2012
9:14 am
That the Administration waited with informing the public about the causes of attack on a consulate until the intelligence people were sure about them…
We know that this is what Barry told the questioner off camera, after the debate. This is the most ludicrous defense of his coverup yet. If he waited to be sure of the truth, why was he out there pumping a false narrative about it being caused by a video. He says he was waiting to get the truth, so in the meantime, entertain them with something he knew to be false.
Some weak minded people fall for this nonsense? You gotta really be way up Obama’s tailpipe to think this argument is valid. Just another lie to avoid telling the truth.
cc
October 18th, 2012
9:19 am
“We must insure all liberals, socialists, progressives are removed from elected office!”
It sounds like a plan whose time has come. I favor immediate implementation!
cc
October 18th, 2012
9:21 am
Rafe:
You’re on target . . . as usual.
PROUD NAVY VET
October 18th, 2012
9:24 am
There was a report on the news saying AZ handed out Spanish voter info stating the election was to be held on November 8th not November 6th. But everything that was printed in English had the correct date. I wonder how that could have happened?
Tommy the Brit
October 18th, 2012
9:27 am
Interesting read – I feel very similarly about the state of the battleground after the second debate. Obama’s “path to victory” has many more options open to it compared to Mr Romney and, if he has indeed lost Ohio and Pennsylvania, the election math becomes ever more complicated.
I’ve put together my electoral college map for November 6th: http://tommygilchrist.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/obamas-electoral-path-to-victory/
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
9:27 am
Why would one of the United States be handing out voter info in a language other than English?
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
9:29 am
Romney’s path to victory: Americans vote in greater numbers than Democrats.
cc
October 18th, 2012
9:29 am
Rumor has it that President Romney has begun a national search for a well-qualified foreign policy advisor. Examining all possibilities, I understand that he is leaning toward an offer to MarkV. When questioned about this, President Romney said, “He is an obvious choice. All I would need to do is seek his advice on any given circumstance, ask him what he would do and then do exactly the opposite! It can’t fail!”
iggy
October 18th, 2012
9:30 am
More good news for OBlunder.
“US unemployment aid applications jump to 388,000″
MarkV
October 18th, 2012
9:38 am
cc @ 9:29 am
I understand that cc does not have more brain than for stupid sarcasm.
cc
October 18th, 2012
9:46 am
iggy:
Want to bet that, even in the face of this, that the unemployment rate will show another drop on the next report?
jconservative
October 18th, 2012
9:48 am
On the importance of Ohio check this from David Morris at “The Kiplinger Letter” of 10/17/12:
“An even bigger development Tuesday was the Supreme Court’s decision not to review a lower court’s ruling that early voting in Ohio on the weekend before the election must be allowed for everyone, not just members of the military. That gives the Obama campaign a few extra days to take advantage of its superior get-out-the-vote organization…..Obama’s team decided early in the campaign to devote a lot of time, effort and money to early voting operations in key states, and it’s paying off in Ohio, where Democrats are voting early in much larger numbers than Republicans.”
adam smith's invisible hand
October 18th, 2012
9:48 am
iggy – those unemployment numbers are rigged – haven’t you gotten word from your overlords on that?
Matz
October 18th, 2012
9:57 am
The critical demographic: BINDERS FULL OF WOMEN!
Will they vote for the ticket that respects them as intelligent individuals capable of making their own decisions, equal pay for equal work, breadwinners and parents, and valuable members of our society?
Or will they vote for the ticket that seeks to marginalize them by empowering their employers to stick their noses into how they use the insurance portion of their compensation packages, judging their personal lives on a double standard, re-defining violence against women, and showing them their true value by passing out, “Hot Chicks Dig Ryan” buttons?
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:19 am
Matz: Or will they vote for the ticket that seeks to marginalize them by empowering their employers to stick their noses into how they use the insurance portion of their compensation packages
—————–
It’s the government that is sticking their noses into our health insurance and medical decisions.
Increased circulation
October 18th, 2012
10:20 am
Why can’t we get more stories about Republican Tennessee Congressman DeJarlais knocking up his patient while he was married and then taking her for an abortion? You’d think Kyle would want to promote a male, family-values, Republican Congressman caught having an affair with that wasn’t with another man.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:25 am
Why can’t we get more stories about Republican Tennessee Congressman…
————–
We can. The Tennessee newspapers have web sites too. Have you not heard of the Google?
Matz
October 18th, 2012
10:30 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout,
How awful for you that the health insurance you pay for at your job has to cover your visits to the urologist. I object! When I have a company and negotiate a group health plans for my employees to pay into, I want to be able to exclude all medical care related to the male member. I want to make your health issues my business because GOD told me to! HIPAA be darned!
(insert eye rollie icon)
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:35 am
Poor Matz. She can’t imagine a world where people (gasp) are forced to purchase their own condoms.
Del
October 18th, 2012
10:37 am
Evidently Gallup is saying that based on their recent polling of swing state likely voters, Obama has virtually lost all of his advantage among woman. If that’s true it’s game over for Obama and the only plan that he needs to come up with now is a plan for vacating the White House in January.
Matz
October 18th, 2012
10:38 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout,
If you think putting a condom on your willie will fix the little boulder that is your prostate gland when it impedes your ability to urinate, or cure your kidney stones, then BLESS YOUR HEART.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:40 am
Matz, a condom only costs a buck. Is it unreasonable to expect a thirty year old attending a posh private law school to be able to pay for that themselves?
Matz will be quite happy living in Obama’s Handout Nation with all the pathetic losers.
jconservative
October 18th, 2012
10:41 am
the Charlotte Observer:
“This week, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association removed Mormonism from its list of religious cults.
The reclassification follows Romney’s visit to Graham’s mountain home last Thursday, a meeting that also included Graham’s son Franklin, who now runs the association for his 93-year-old father….
An article on the Graham website had classified Mormons, along with Jehovah’s Witnesses, the Unification Church, Unitarians, Spiritists and Scientologists, among others, as cults.”
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:42 am
With Obozo’s electoral chances in doubt, the Iranian people would be wise to make sure they know where the nearest bomb shelter is located.
Matz
October 18th, 2012
10:47 am
Lil’ Barry,
How thrilled I am to learn that you know the price of a condom, and that you require the college students you sleep with to buy their own. What a guy!
Nonetheless, a condom does not treat or manage the vast number of illnesses and conditions that affect the reproductive systems of either gender. Wanting to deny women medical treatment (or require them to divulge their private medical issues to their nosy employers) because you see them ONLY as sex objects, tells us more about you than I want to know.
Seriously. Ewwwww. You’re gross. I hope you don’t have daughters.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 18th, 2012
10:51 am
If Obama loses the popular vote
but wins the electoral vote
will Dems still claim that Romney should be President since he won the popular vote?
Jerry Fawell
October 18th, 2012
10:51 am
Guess if the Graham family’s organization is going to endorse Romney it would be a good thing to take them off of their “cult” list.
Who thinks they would have done this had Romney not won the nomination?
Either way, good for you Billy and Franklin
Jerry Fawell
October 18th, 2012
10:53 am
Uncle Sam
Since you claimed Bush was the President, I am sure you will say he is President, right?
That was a stupid thing for Democrats to say after the election in 2000 and would be stupid to say now.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
10:55 am
Matz: a condom does not treat or manage the vast number of illnesses and conditions that affect the reproductive systems of either gender.
———————
But every health insurance plan (even pre-Obozocare) does.
Elective treatments, such as abortion, Viagra, contraceptives, plastic surgery, Lasik…not so much. And with good reason.
Georgia
October 18th, 2012
11:01 am
China will complete their supernavy about the same time as Iran finally gets their grubby paws on a nuke. Imagine a dozen Chinese aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. Chairman Mao thought we’d be already at war with China. He asked Nixon in the seventies how many generations would pass before WW3. He held up one finger. Nixon shrugged. He held up two fingers. Nixon reluctantly acquiesced, but objected, “Thats why I’m here now, Mr Chairman, to prevent such a thing.” Mao glanced sardonically at our FIrst Crook. “There nothing that can stop it. The world is shrinking. You capitalistic peegs are draining the planet of resources just so you can have cheap hamburgers. You Americans think you have manifest destiny to pollute everything.” Then Chairman Mao stood up, he pointed at Nixon and the three members of his staff, “I hate you…and I hate you, and I don’t even know you, but I hate you. You’ll all be sorry.” Then Mao ran away like a little girl. (see Nixon memoirs, where this is copied from word for word.)
Increased circulation
October 18th, 2012
11:01 am
Lil’ Barry – Get knocked up by a married, Republican, family-values doctor and he’ll pay for your abortion. You won’t need a condom.
Thomas Heyward Jr
October 18th, 2012
11:02 am
I have found that the ones who complain the most about not subsidizing their respective “lady parts’ with tax-payer money …………are the ones that need it the less.
.
rusty.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
11:04 am
Actual LOL, Thomas!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 18th, 2012
11:08 am
That’s right, Increased Circulation. Republicans pay their way. Democrats whine to the government to force the productive to cover their expenses.
John L Lightner
October 18th, 2012
11:10 am
Romney is big on discussing all his accomplishments as governor of Masschusetts. Very good. Then why according to the polls is he losing his “home” state by such a wide margin? It is not even close.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
11:12 am
“This week, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association removed Mormonism from its list of religious cults.”
Gravy Stain might just blow a gasket even more than usual.
Matz
October 18th, 2012
11:13 am
Y’all “win” the discussion by divulging how truly disgusting you are. Enjoy your male-bondy time degrading women. I hope you enjoy lighting each other’s gaseous emissions and complimenting each other on the volume and resonance of your belches.
“MA! THE MEATLOAF!”
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 18th, 2012
11:15 am
“Romney is big on discussing all his accomplishments as governor of Masschusetts. Very good. Then why according to the polls is he losing his “home” state by such a wide margin?”
Uh, John? You think maybe because Massachusetts is a deep-blue state maybe? And that Romney needs to focus his campaign cash on states he has a reasonable chance to win?
If that’s your best argument, you’ve failed miserably.