2012 Tuesday: What, exactly, can Obama do to win tonight?
By now, everyone acknowledges the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney altered the course of this election.
On the day of the debate, Obama led Romney by 3.1 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls. Romney took his first lead against Obama six days later and has been no worse than tied for the past week; the two are in a statistical tie at the moment. More important, Romney has closed the gap or taken the lead in the crucial swing states and even put formerly Obama-leaning states Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania back in play. Today, for the first time, Romney even leads Obama in the RCP average of favorable/unfavorable polls: On average, the former Massachusetts governor is seen favorably by almost 50 percent of voters and has a net favorability rating of +5.4 percentage points — both figures are the highest of the entire presidential campaign for him — while Obama is at 51 percent and +5 percentage points. In four of the past six major polls, Romney’s net favorability is higher than Obama’s.
NBC News’ Chuck Todd has gone so far as to declare a “structural shift” in the race in Romney’s direction; it’s no longer Obama’s election to lose. So, what can Obama do in tonight’s town hall-style debate to regain the momentum?
Unfortunately for Obama supporters, I don’t think it’s going to be very easy.
Much of the commentary about the first debate focused on Obama’s listlessness and lack of aggressiveness. And that’s true as far as it goes. But Obama didn’t just lose the debate; Romney won it. After the Obama campaign spent months and tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars portraying Romney as a cold extremist, Romney gave a very different impression to many voters giving him a hard look for the first time. He was personable, confident, energetic and sounded very reasonable. Obama’s poor performance made the turnaround sharper than it might have been, but Romney earned a re-evaluation from voters on his own.
There’s little Obama can do about that. He can try to rattle or bait Romney into saying something that would put off viewers, as Joe Biden clearly tried to do with Paul Ryan in their vice presidential debate last week. But it didn’t work with Ryan, and it’s unlikely to work with Romney, a more seasoned debater who made some of those mistakes early in the primary-debate season but has become more disciplined since then. The town-hall format, in which — strangely — the rivals are not supposed to engage one another directly, will also make that task more difficult.
That format also inherently makes it harder for Obama to show the aggressiveness he didn’t display in the first debate. The point is for the candidates to engage the audience, and it takes some fine maneuvering to do that while also going after one’s opponent. Not to mention that everyone is expecting more aggressiveness from Obama in this debate precisely because it was so obviously lacking last time. Remember what I wrote last week about expectations? Well, that same principle means it’s going to be hard for Obama to meet those expectations of aggressiveness with everyone watching for it, and without going overboard a la the laughing, smirking, interrupting Biden last week.
Obama can try to go after Romney’s credibility. But Romney parried those attacks well last time and, in last week’s VP debate, got a preview of the policy areas in which the Obama team thinks Romney is vulnerable on the facts; he ought to be ready for those. If there’s a secret line of attack the Obama campaign has been sitting on, tonight is the night to bring it out.
What’s more, the past 24 hours have given Romney new ways to dent Obama’s own credibility: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s shouldering of the blame Monday for the lethally inadequate security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi last month is a far cry from Obama’s 2008 statement — standing next to Clinton, no less — that he would be responsible for security matters. (Not to mention Clinton didn’t take responsibility for Obama’s inaccurate statements about why the attack happened.) There’s also the fresh bankruptcy of a manufacturer of batteries for electric cars that received a federal grant of almost $250 million in 2009 — another example of Obama’s “picking the losers,” as Romney put it in the last debate, rather than creating the 5 million green jobs he promised during, ahem, the 2008 town hall debate.
What we have, then, is a situation in which the Obama campaign tried to win the election by making it a contest of two personalities — and now faces a situation where its portrayal of Romney has been blown, and time is running out to persuade voters that caricature was correct after all.
(Note: I’ll once again be live-blogging the debate tonight, so look for a fresh post later today where you can follow the face-off with me and other readers.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
238 comments Add your comment
Jamal
October 16th, 2012
5:26 pm
“2012 Tuesday: What, exactly, can Obama do to win tonight?”
Well all day the news has been that women are abandoning the Dems in droves and moving over to Romney, so the Prez should make a strong pitch directly to the ladies. Maybe discuss his feeeelings.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
5:28 pm
There is no video that justifies an attack on an Embassy…”
In Mark Speak this does not mean Libya; he is certainly not talking about Libya, he is just talking about Embassies in general. I mean we had an ambassador killed in 1979, so he could have been talking about that. There is nothing there that says he thought the Libyan Embassy fiasco resulted from a video. Prove he said the Libyan Embassy attack was caused by a video. I win.
Mark is straining at gnats again.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
5:38 pm
I think in Aug and Sep, many, not all, polling organizations are more interested in pushing opinion rather than reflecting it.
Once we get closer to election day, they all want to be right, so the polls are more accurate.
With that said, Romney did improve his position by just showing up and being himself. He was so different, for people who had not been paying attention, than the cartoon characterization Obama had painted him as, so minds changed.
Old timer
October 16th, 2012
5:38 pm
Romney did run a very successful, debt free international Olympics. So far Obama has done nothing with success or debt free in four years. I would like specifics on what he would do differently in the next four.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
5:40 pm
Those who post here claiming it is “certain” that Obama or Romney will win are either purposeful partisan liars, or delusional. This is now a horse race with Obama, the favorite, ahead by a length with a quarter mile to go.
I don’t recall the pundit who said a candidate’s popularity was a mile wide, but an inch deep – but that could be said of either Obama or Romney. Polls have changed and will likely change again in these last 3 weeks. Who actually votes is the unknown until November 6 and 7.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
5:59 pm
MarkV
Come on now. Thats just semantics. You are clinging to straws and are just butt-hurt that you accused me of being a liar and got called out. Give it up man and admit when you are wrong. I did not too long ago. Grow up a bit and give up some of that pride. Not doing anything for you.
cc
October 16th, 2012
6:01 pm
Kyle Wingfield@4:50 pm:
That was absolutely the best explanation I’ve seen yet, and much, much better than any of the ‘talking heads’ has given!
Tman
October 16th, 2012
6:04 pm
Some one answer this please. Romney was Governor of Mass. but he will not win the state in the presidential election? Why is that? Was he a bad Governor?
Tman
October 16th, 2012
6:07 pm
Would Romney make it legal to have more than one wife as his church advocates,? If so he will get at least 50% of the vote!
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
6:08 pm
The debates are only a few hours away, and I’ll bet Obama is shuffling through index cards like Palin did and in the movie “Game Change”. Romney is relaxing, having a light meal, and getting in the zone. Could be a massacre.
Hillbilly D
October 16th, 2012
6:10 pm
I don’t recall the pundit who said a candidate’s popularity was a mile wide, but an inch deep – but that could be said of either Obama or Romney.
I agree with that. Many people are wishing they had another choice, in my opinion. There will be a lot more votes against somebody than for somebody.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
6:11 pm
Rafe Hollister@ 5:28 pm
“Mark is straining at gnats again.”
I realize that a difference between a lie and a truth is just a gnat for you.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
6:11 pm
Lambeau @5:59 pm
No Lambeau, it is NOT just semantics. You have accused the President of the US that he perpetuated a lie, and as evidence you quoted excerpts from the UN speech. I have challenged you to specify a sentence from that speech, which you could call a lie. You have failed to do so. Unless you do that, I call again your accusation a lie.
Michael
October 16th, 2012
6:15 pm
Sorry, Romney was bailed out by the feds during the Olympics; Romneycare only works because the feds picked up medicaid for Massachusetts; his firm required a federal bailout as they were failing. He says he’s not aware of any abortion legislation in his program, yet his running mate has introduced several bills changing science and the law.
He will not describe his plan to give a tax cut without increasing the debt, because there is no plan. He is taking the same path Bush took – promise a tax cut (popular); don’t describe how to pay for it (unpopular).
Obama is not running against Romney, his campaign has out raised Romney. Obama is running against the Koch brothers and Karl Rove. Koch/Rove are where the real money is in this campaign.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
6:26 pm
Rafe Hollister@ 5:28 pm
“There is no video that justifies an attack on an Embassy…”In Mark Speak this does not mean Libya; he is certainly not talking about Libya, he is just talking about Embassies in general. I mean we had an ambassador killed in 1979, so he could have been talking about that. There is nothing there that says he thought the Libyan Embassy fiasco resulted from a video.”
I am sure Rafe can write something even more mindless, but it will be a strain.
Tman
October 16th, 2012
6:30 pm
Georgia, this aint a football game in Athens We need debates to further our Democracy. We defintitely need two parties in this great country or we would have some serious problems
Don't Tread
October 16th, 2012
6:36 pm
“They may not like Obama. But at least they know what they are getting.”
What did we get the first time? Billion dollar giveaways to Democrat supporters (and 16T of debt), continuous assault on individual liberties, massive new tax, government-sanctioned gun sales to narco-terrorists, our allies getting the shaft, just to name a few. All served up with super-sized portions of arrogance, lies, and denial. (The only good thing we got was Bin Leaded as fish food, courtesy of Seal Team 6.)
Hope and Change, anyone?
And you wonder why people don’t like 0bama?
JamVet
October 16th, 2012
6:40 pm
You faithful rubes in the Party of No Principles have your perfect joke of a candidate:
Romney, Sept. 28, 2011: “I have never supported the President’s recovery act, all right, the stimulus, no time, nowhere, no how.”
Romney, Jan. 4, 2009: “I think there is need for economic stimulus…”
Romney, Oct. 29, 2002: “I will preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose”
Romney, Dec. 16, 2007: “The right next step in the, in the fight to preserve the sanctity of life is to see Roe v. Wade overturned.”
Romney, Oct. 25, 1994: “Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I’m not trying to return to Reagan-Bush.”
Romney, May 25, 2010: “The principles that Ronald Reagan espoused are as true today as they were when he spoke them.”
Romney, June 24, 2009: “Well, that’s what we did in Massachusetts, and that is, we put together an exchange, and the president’s copying that idea. I’m glad to hear that.”
Romney, Oct. 18, 2011: “Obamacare is bad news … and if I’m president of the United States I will repeal it.”
Romney, Oct. 18, 2011: “I don’t think I’ve ever hired an illegal in my life.”
Romney, 2 minutes, 14 seconds later: “We hired a lawn, a lawn company to mow our lawn, and they had illegal immigrants that were working there.”
Romney, June 3, 2011: “Well, I believe the world is getting warmer…. I believe that humans contribute to that.”
Romney, Oct. 27, 2011: “My view is that we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet.”
CNN Voiceover, March 28, 2002: “Republican Mitt Romney says he will not sign a no-new-taxes pledge.”
Romney, Oct. 5, 2007: “I’m proud to be the only major candidate for president to sign the tax pledge.”
Romney, Jan. 28, 2010: “TARP got paid back and it kept the financial system from collapsing…. It was the right thing to do.”
Romney, Dec. 6, 2009: “TARP ought to be ended.”
Romney, Jan. 14. 2008: “I’m not willing to sit back and say too bad for Michigan, too bad, too bad for the car industry.”
Romney, June 3, 2011: “That’s exactly what I said…. ‘Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.’”
Suck on that tibby.
And you Mitt “I was completely wrong” Romney apologists go ahead and spinelessly spin them all away.
One by one. (Or two by two for you Biblical types…)
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
7:01 pm
Tman posted “We defintitely need two parties in this great country or we would have some serious problems”
I served my country for 13 years – 7 active, but have to admit it is not “great”. Way above average, and I can’t think of any better – but it has its flaws. It has a great Constitution, but has been watered down. It has had some great leaders, but none since Truman, Eisenhower and Reagan (Kennedy gave great inspiration and speeches, but only had a half term and the Bay of Pigs fiasco). It has had some great statesmen who put country first, but none of late. It has had good intentions, but tried unsuccessfully to police the world since the Korean War. It lost its superior fiscal way and moral character.
The “Greatest Generation” sacrificed the most – but then you could say the same for the British and Russian people (not Trotsky, Lenin, or Stalin).
I hope one day to again feel the patriotism and proud to be a beacon for the world, but sadly feel we are just an also ran among equals and only above many nations that are much worse. There is no other place I’d rather live because of friends and family, but the British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, and Japan come close – and if I were looking (which I am not) there would surely be others.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
7:02 pm
Mark, Lambeau posted the quote that was evidence of Obama lying at the UN. CASE CLOSED, Guilty as charged! You can deny it, it that makes you feel better, but you are not convincing anyone else. Parsing words, redefining definitions, reading between the lines, picking nits, it does not matter, OBAMA LIED. This was two weeks almost, after the attack. Everyone in the Free world, that was paying attention, knew he was lying, when he tried to blame a stupid video.
Lambeau you made your point! Mark you struck out.
mike
October 16th, 2012
7:06 pm
It’s up to you, America. It’s up to you to vote against your own interests and for the interests of the tiny minority who will benefit from Romney’s policies.
It’s just like the euphoria when George W. (what was his name — I’ve forgotten) was elected. Then look at what we got. We’re still digging out from under all of that ****.
But go ahead and dance around in a circle and celebrate giving it all away to the 1%. No, make that the 1/10th of 1%. It’s the way things get done in this brainwashed, naive, imbecilic world we live in.
You get what you deserve.
Robert
October 16th, 2012
7:16 pm
Enter your comments here
mike
October 16th, 2012
7:17 pm
Oh, by the way, I was on I-75 wa-a-ay south of Atlanta making about 85 mph when — what do you know — a Chevy Volt blew by me in the fast lane. I thought those things were slow!
getalife
October 16th, 2012
7:19 pm
The 47% insult to Americans will follow mitt to the end of his life.
The rich man talking down and disrespecting almost half of the American people was the real mitt romney..
If he does not care about us why should we care about him.
Del
October 16th, 2012
7:25 pm
It’s all too clear that the left is trembling in their $hyite. Yes it’s quite possible that the ONE will be denied a second term by the American people and on Wednesday Nov. 7th. we’ll hear much crying and gnashing of teeth on these AJC forums.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
7:36 pm
Rafe Hollister @ 7:02 pm
Apparently you believe the dictum that your repeating a lie will make it the truth. It won’t work, and you will have to keep lying. I make a differnence between calling something a lie and calling a person a liar, but you are now deserving that call.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
7:40 pm
Mark
If a man knowingly tells a lie, he is a liar.
You can protest and whine and point fingers and call people names, but what Obama said at the UN about the Libyan attack being the result of a video is a lie, and by telling that lie, he becomes a Liar.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
7:44 pm
Getalife
The rich man talking down and disrespecting almost half of the American people was the real mitt romney..
If he does not care about us why should we care about him.
************************************
Now you know why so many people, that do not share his views, don’t care for Barry.
“And it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,” Obama said.
Del
October 16th, 2012
7:47 pm
Barack Obama is the consummate liar. He lied about his associations prior to being elected president, he’s lied about his priorities before he become president, he’s lied about his opponent and he’s lying about Libya. Time to make change a reality.
Politico
October 16th, 2012
7:50 pm
Del comes on this blog crying on a regular basis and needing a tissue and he says others are trembling…….
Politico
October 16th, 2012
7:52 pm
Oldertimer from earlier
You do know Romney required Fed tax dollars to make the SLC games debt free, right?
I think he did a great job, but you seem to be void of the facts or ignorant of all the information.
Del
October 16th, 2012
7:57 pm
Polutico,
No remorse.
Politico
October 16th, 2012
7:59 pm
Del
Good call. Romney has the momentum. We will see if he can close the deal.
I don’t care for either one.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
October 16th, 2012
8:06 pm
There’s nothing Obozo can do. He’s an America-hating loser and a Marxist.
I know it, you know it, and the American people know it. And soon, Democrats will know it.
Vote American.
@@
October 16th, 2012
8:33 pm
Free birth control.
Better throw in the price of a condom ’cause birth control pills won’t prevent STDs.
Hillbilly D
October 16th, 2012
8:35 pm
@@
Won’t prevent standards? I thought that’s how they got in that predicament. (IWH)
Old timer
October 16th, 2012
9:18 pm
Ok Obama..bets a rebut…
gg
October 16th, 2012
11:13 pm
Romney is starting to look like Pinocchio ..